Hezbollah and Lebanon

Updated October 21, 2024

One year on and Iranian proxies continue to attack Israel

Israel has commemorated the one-year anniversary of Hamas’s October 7^th attacks, as it continues military operations in Gaza and Lebanon, while coming under rocket and missile fire from Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis.

Sirens sound this morning in Haifa, Acre and several surrounding towns and villages after a barrage of around 100 rockets were fired from Lebanon so far this morning.
Hezbollah launched 190 projectiles yesterday, including at civilian population centres in Tel Aviv and Haifa. Hezbollah claimed that it targeted the Glilot army base where the IDF’s 8200 signals intelligence unit is headquartered. The IDF says that five rockets were launched in the attack, some of which were intercepted and the rest struck open areas, causing no injuries or major damage.
Military operations against Hezbollah are continuing, with focus on southern Lebanon, and the Dahiya suburb of Beirut. A fourth army division has been deployed to southern Lebanon with the IDF stating it is conducting “limited, localised and targeted operations” in the area.
The IDF announced that it killed the head of Hezbollah’s logistical headquarters, Suhail Hussein Husseini in an airstrike on Beirut. Husseini, a member of Hezbollah’s Jihad Council, participated in weapon transfers between Hezbollah and Iran and was responsible for distributing the advanced weaponry among Hezbollah’s units. Further airstrikes were also conducted on Hezbollah targets in the more northern Beqaa Valley.
The Iranian foreign minister warned Israel against retaliating for its attack against Israel last week adding that any attack on Iran’s infrastructure would be met with a stronger response.
The IDF successfully intercepted a surface to surface ballistic missile fired at central Israel from Yemen. Sirens sounded across the centre of the country, but no injuries or damage was reported.
The Houthis claimed responsibility for this attack, saying that two missiles were fired at Israel as well as numerous drones targeting Eilat and Jaffa.
One Israeli soldier has been killed in the IDF’s latest operations in the northern Gaza Strip with another soldier suffering serious injuries in the same incident. His death marks the IDF’s 350^th fatality since launching the ground operation last October.
The IDF said that 20 Hamas operatives were killed in the past day during a new IDF operation in northern Gaza’s Jabaliya.
Hamas also targeted central Israel with a barrage of rocket fire while October 7^th commemorations took place. While mostly intercepted, shrapnel falling caused some damage to a property in Kfar Chabad where it also lightly wounded two women.
After weeks of silence, Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar has reestablished contact with hostage-ceasefire deal mediators in Qatar while former Hamas politburo chief, Khaled Mashaal told Reuters that the group would rise “like a Phoenix”, and that it continues to recruit fighters and manufacture weapons.

Context: Israel marked the anniversary of the October 7^th attack in two separate national ceremonies last night.

The first was held in Hayarkon Park in Tel Aviv, crowd-funded and organised by some of the victims’ families. It was originally expected to host 40,000 spectators, but due to the expanded range of recent rocket attacks, the capacity was reduced to fewer than 2,000.
The second, formal government-organised commemoration was held in an amphitheatre in Ofakim and pre-recorded several days ago. It was broadcast immediately after the first ceremony ended.
Both ceremonies included survivors’ testimony and musical accompaniment as well as reflecting a full range of Israeli society with messages of solidarity and unity. However the fact that two ceremonies were deemed necessary speaks largely to the continued anger and resentment felt my many over the government’s failure to take full responsibility into the disaster and its foot dragging in launching a state commission of enquiry into the disaster.
There is growing concern for the 101 hostages in Gaza. The latest intelligence assessment made public includes:
- Most of the hostages are being held in tunnels, likely narrow passageways with very little food, without electricity, without showers and without bathrooms, and with almost no air.
- The terrorist captors holding them have become more violent toward the hostages the more the IDF intensified its attacks. One official reportedly told the families that the terrorists’ finger on the trigger had become lighter. He said that the terrorists had been given a direct order to execute hostages if they felt in danger or if they heard soldiers approaching.
- The assessment is that most have lost 20% of their weight and some are most likely are suffering from severe medical issues that have not been treated.
- In such difficult conditions the hostages will not be able to survive for an extended period of time.
Despite the resumption of communication with Sinwar and the pressure from the families to reach a deal, the chances are not considered to be high. This is due to Sinwar’s continued intransigence and Israel’s formal demand to retain its position on the Philadelphi Corridor.
There had been efforts to reinvigorate a plan that would see all of the hostages released and allow Sinwar and the remaining Hamas leadership safe passage out of Gaza.
It remains unclear how much the US administration can invest in this process as the election draws nearer.
In parallel Israel is looking to increase the Humanitarian Aid into Gaza. The estimated cost is $5.4 billion (£4.12bn) per year for food alone. There are also suggestions that the Israeli Government is pushing to have IDF take over the distribution of all aid to Gaza. The IDF would take responsibility for every stage of the process – purchasing the aid, transporting it, securing it and distributing it to Gaza’s residents.
In the UK, Prime Minister Starmer made a statement to the House of Commons yesterday paying tribute to the victims of October 7th, including 15 British citizens who were slain, and another victim who has since died in captivity. He also talked about the Palestinians death toll, and the humanitarian crisis in Lebanon.
The Prime Minister said he supports Israel’s right to defend herself against Iran’s aggression in line with international law.

Looking ahead: The head of IDF Northern Command has told local leaders of northern communities that they could begin to make plans for the return of their residents after the Succot holiday, at the end of the month. The prevailing assessment is that the communities in question are ones that are at a distance from the border and leaders of these communities will await government endorsement of endorse this plan.

Consultations between Israel and the US continue over a response to Iran for firing 181 ballistic missiles at Israel last week. There are a number of attack options: from military installations to symbols of government, energy infrastructure and the Iranian nuclear programme.
The Israeli government has declared that going forward an additional – ‘Iron Sword War Memorial Day’ will be marked every year on October 7th.

September 20, 2024

Second day of Hezbollah device detonations

What’s happened: At least twenty Hezbollah members have been killed and hundreds injured after two-way radios, solar panels, and fingerprint reading devices used by the group detonated.

A wave of explosions were reported across Lebanon yesterday afternoon as electronic devices (predominantly two-way radios) detonated, including at the funerals of Hezbollah members killed in Tuesday’s attacks.
Hezbollah confirmed the deaths of twenty operatives in the blasts, along with twelve from the day before. While these figures have been corroborated by the Lebanese health ministry, Israel believes the death toll to be higher, with Hezbollah’s special operations Radwan unit hit hard by the two days of explosions.
Israel is again widely believed to be responsible for this attack, but has offered no comment on the incident or mentioned it in any government statements.
Although Hezbollah have initially responded with a barrage of rocket and anti-tank missiles with eight Israelis wounded Thursday morning.
Iran has condemned the “criminal explosion”, and threatened to retaliate against Israel after its Ambassador to Lebanon was injured by his pager exploding yesterday.
The New York Times reports that the Hungarian firm which reportedly manufactured the pagers was a shell company established by Israeli intelligence officers.
Visiting an Israeli Air Force base, Defence Minister Gallant asserted that Israel was initiating a “new phase” of the war with a greater focus on the Lebanese border and countering Hezbollah’s threat. Gallant stressed that Israel’s war aims were “clear and simple: to return the residents of the towns in the north to their homes safely”.
This speech came as it was announced that the IDF was in the process of redeploying the 98th Division from the Gaza Strip to the Lebanese border.
A senior Israeli official told Ynet that if Hezbollah chief Nasrallah accepts an American de-escalation proposal, it could prevent what appears to be a descent towards all-out war.
The Shin Bet, Israel’s domestic intelligence agency, has also announced that it foiled an Iranian attempt to assassinate the Prime Minister, Defence Minister and former PM Bennett. An unnamed Jewish Israeli citizen was recruited in Turkey, smuggled into Iran for at least two visits, and was paid to carry out his mission. The Shin Bet says the assassination plans were seen by the Iranian officials as revenge for the killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran in July.

Context: The detonations in Beirut came a day after widespread pager explosions across Lebanon and Syria which injured approximately 3000 Hezbollah operatives and following Israel’s Defence Minister Gallant’s announcement that the IDF was diverting resources to the northern border in a “new phase” of the war.

Whereas Israel was surprised by the Hamas attack on October 7, it has long prepared for a war with Hezbollah in the north, with the explosions in Lebanon a spectacular example of Israeli military and intelligence planning.
At the same time, while the attacks are undoubtedly a tactical success – in injuring thousands of Hezbollah operatives, requiring the organisation to re-evaluate its communications network, and striking a psychological blow – it remains to be seen whether it will have strategic affect in helping to return 80,000 northern residents to their homes.
Indeed, an all-out war between Israel and Hezbollah remains a distinct possibility.
Comprised of airborne and commando brigades, the 98thDivision’s northern deployment is a strong indication of that front’s current seriousness and priority to the Israeli security establishment. The Division has an important role in the IDF plan for a ground operation in the mountain ranges that overlook southern Lebanon.
Such an operation is considered critical for clearing the underground infrastructure that Hezbollah in the area.

Looking ahead: With Nasrallah due to deliver a speech this afternoon, the US has said that it does not want to see further escalation, and reiterated that it was not aware of the sabotage operation leading to a second wave of detonating devices before it happened.

At the request of Algeria, the United Nations Security Council is scheduled to meet tomorrow. The UN Secretary General, Antonio Guterres, has warned that the pager blasts indicate “a serious risk of a dramatic escalation in Lebanon and everything must be done to avoid that escalation”

September 18, 2024

Thousands of Hezbollah pagers detonated across Lebanon and Syria

What’s happened: At least nine Hezbollah members have been killed with thousands wounded after a near simultaneous detonation of hundreds of pagers used by the group in an attack which took place across Lebanon and Syria.

The majority of injuries are said to have been to the face and the hands, with pagers reportedly beeping moments before detonation to encourage the carriers to pick up and hold them.
Hezbollah and the Lebanese government have both blamed Israel for the detonations. The Israeli government has not offered any comments on the incident.
Iran’s Ambassador to Lebanon, Mojtaba Amani, was also reportedly injured when his pager detonated, losing an eye.
The Biden administration claimed it was “not aware of this incident in advance” while the FCDO has urged “calm heads and de-escalation”.
According to reports, Hezbollah’s supply chain was compromised with small amounts of explosives being placed in the pagers before they were exported to Lebanon.
According to a senior Lebanese security source speaking to Reuters, Mossad planted the explosives in 5000 devices which were imported to Lebanon months ago. While the pagers were from Taiwan-based Gold Apollo, the company has said it did not manufacture the devices. Gold Apollo stressed that these devices were made by another company called BAC which has a licence to use the Gold Apollo brand, but gave no further details.
Hezbollah has vowed to retaliate saying “the resistance will continue today, like any other day, its operations to support Gaza, its people and its resistance which is a separate path from the harsh punishment that the criminal enemy (Israel) should await in response to Tuesday’s massacre”.
The IDF has said there are no changes to the Home Front Command security guidelines in the immediate aftermath of the incident. The GPS signal around the Kirya in Tel Aviv (IDF HQ) currently remains unaffected (it is often jammed when attacks are believed to be imminent).

Context: The detonations closely follow reports that the Shin Bet foiled an attempted sophisticated Hezbollah attempt to assassinate an unnamed senior former Israeli security official, as well as the Israeli government reinforcing its willingness to expand military action in southern Lebanon.

A former Israeli official tells Axios that Israel had planned to use the exploding pagers as an opening blow in an all-out war with the terror group, but had become concerned in recent days that the booby-trapped devices could be discovered. Al Monitor reported that two members of Hezbollah had recently raised concerns about the pagers. An unnamed US official has described the detonations as a “use it or lose it” moment, suggesting the plan was initiated now out of concern that it would imminently be uncovered and compromised.
Hezbollah uses a network of pagers in order to inform operatives and to call up a large number of them quickly with the press of a button. That network was thought to have had many advantages – pagers are small and considered to be relatively secure in terms of information security, especially as they are not dependent on cellular networks.
The blow to Hezbollah is physical, in terms of its injured and killed operatives, intelligence-operational, in terms of how the organisation was successfully infiltrated and psychological, in terms of the humiliation of their failure being spread over social media. The confidence of its operatives will also be shaken in the short term. Although Hezbollah’s counter-intelligence and security has previously been compromised, these detonations mark perhaps its greatest breach in decades.
It will also once again require Hezbollah to evaluate its internal organisational structure, something it has already done following the assassination of several senior commanders, with its Chief of Staff Fuad Shukr foremost among them. In the short term, Hezbollah will likely change its means and methods of communication, which may expose itself to its activities being tracked.
At the same time, this attack has not changed the strategic situation along Israel’s northern border, with 80,000 Israelis still unable to return to their homes.
Combat operations continue in the Gaza Strip with four Israeli soldiers being killed in Rafah when they entered a booby trapped building. One of the deceased was Staff Sergeant Agam Naim, 20. A paramedic attached to the 401st Armoured Brigade’s 52 Battalion, she is the first female soldier to be killed in ground operations in the Gaza Strip since Operation Swords of Iron began.

Looking ahead: Hezbollah chief, Hassan Nasrallah is due to deliver a speech tomorrow afternoon, which will likely centre on the group’s response to the mass pager detonations.

The Iraqi government and an Iran-backed Shia militia, Kataib Hezbollah, have both pledged to send support to Lebanon. The Iraqi government will deploy medical teams, while Kataib Hezbollah has said it will “put all our capabilities in the hands of the brothers in Lebanon…we are fully prepared to go with them to the end, and to send fighters, equipment and support, whether on the technical or logistical level”.

BICOM’s Director Richard Pater spoke to LBC this morning about this incident. Listen here

September 5, 2024

Hezbollah fires over 100 rockets into Northern Israel

What happened: Hezbollah’s attacks on Northern Israel have continued in the last few days as the IDF resumes counter–terrorism operations in Gaza and the West Bank.

Northern Israel

More than 100 rockets were fired from Lebanon at northern Israel on Wednesday, sparking fires and causing damage but causing no injuries. Iron Dome successfully intercepted some of the rockets, while others fell in open areas. Several fell in Kiryat Shmona causing fires.
In response, the IDF struck Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon.
On Tuesday evening, Hezbollah rockets targeted Netua and Shtula in Northern Israel and a hostile UAV that approached Israel from the east was successfully intercepted.
Intensified Hezbollah attacks over recent months has put under threat dozens of additional towns and thousands of Israeli citizens are seeking mental health support in designated centres. More than 70,000 Israeli citizens have been evacuated from their homes in Northern Israel since October 7th.

Gaza

The IAF carried out an airstrike on a Hamas and Islamic Jihad Command Centre in the Gaza humanitarian area of Deir al-Balah.
On Tuesday, the IDF and Shin Bet killed the Nukhba commander (of the military wing of Hamas) who commanded the massacre in the Netiv HaAsara community on October 7th.
The IAF also carried out a precision strike on Hamas terrorists who were operating inside a command and control centre embedded inside a compound that previously served as the Numaa College in Gaza City.
Yesterday, more than 200 terrorists were killed in the Tel al-Sultan Area in Rafah. Large Quantities of weapons were located inside a basement where Hamas operatives were embedded.
Also yesterday, the tunnel from which the bodies of the six hostages were recovered from was located. Around the tunnel shaft was a children’s play area, which included stuffed animals and wall art of cartoon characters.
IDF troops and the Shin Bet located the shaft leading to the tunnel in an area surrounded by Hamas operatives and extensively booby-trapped, in a further example of how Hamas abuses civilian areas to hold hostages and carry out its activities.
The Coordination of Government Activities in the Territories (COGAT) reported that the second stage of the polio vaccination campaign will begin today, with medical teams vaccinating children in South Gaza.
Yesterday, a total of 28,004 children were vaccinated, and 189,033 children have been vaccinated in total in central Gaza. This number exceeded the expected number of vaccinations in the area.
COGAT also reported that 222 trucks carrying humanitarian goods were transferred to Gaza yesterday: 52 via Erez and 170 via Kerem Shalom.

West Bank

During IDF counterterrorism activity carried out yesterday in the area of Far’a in the Jordan Valley, an IAF aircraft struck a terrorist cell that fired at the soldiers. In the area of Tulkarm, IDF soldiers killed two armed terrorists during exchanges of fire.
A drone attacked a car in Tubas and killed five terrorists who posed an imminent threat. One of those killed was Muhammad Zubeidi, the son of Zakaria Zubeidi, who had been formerly jailed inside Israel for security related offences.
The soldiers also located an explosive inside a baby pushchair. During the operation, an explosives laboratory was demolished, as well as several improvised explosive devices and materials to create explosives.

Context: Whilst IDF operations continue in the north, south and centre, public protests are exerting pressure on the government to conclude a deal to release the hostages.

Thousands of people demonstrated throughout the day yesterday across Israel.
The largest demonstration was held outside the Defence Ministry in Tel Aviv, but other protests were held outside Likud headquarters and outside the homes of coalition MKs and ministers.
In what is broadly perceived as a bid to spur additional public pressure on the Israeli government, Hamas released a video of Carmel Gat, one of the six Israeli hostages who were executed last week by Hamas.
Ministers Itamar Ben Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich have continued to put pressure on Prime Minister Netanyahu to refrain from making what they consider to be unacceptable concessions in a ceasefire/hostage deal with Hamas.
One of the main obstacles to secure a cease fire with Hamas remains the Philadelphi Corridor. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu insists on maintaining troops along the border with Egypt so as to prevent it being used as a supply line for Hamas.
The US Department of Justice has charged Hamas leaders over the October 7th attack. The US filed the claim against the terrorist organisation leaders: Ismail Haniyeh (now deceased), Yahya Sinwar, Mohammed Deif (now deceased), Marwan Issa (now deceased), Khaled Meshaal, and Ali Baraka. The claim consists of various charges including, conspiracy to murder US nationals, conspiracy to use weapons of mass destruction, and conspiracy to finance terrorism. This is a significant step in the public prosecution of Hamas.
In what appears to be the latest example of attacks against an Israeli target abroad, a shooting attack took place today, near the Israeli Consulate in Munich, on the 52nd anniversary of the Sept. 5 1972 Munich Olympics terror attack.

Looking ahead: While the prospects of a hostage deal remain unclear, the families of American hostages being held by Hamas have pressed the White House to consider cutting a unilateral deal with the terrorist organisation to secure their loved ones’ release, and the option is currently under discussion within the Biden administration.

Some senior administration officials strongly oppose this, and President Biden has opted to continue to try to reach a broader deal that includes Israel and ultimately outlines a path to end the conflict.
Israel remains on alert for the prospect of an Iranian attack although Iranian regime sources indicate there will likely be a further delay in a retaliatory strike on Israel until the ongoing ceasefire-hostage negotiations conclude

August 1, 2024

Israel on high alert following assassination of senior Hezbollah and Hamas leaders

What’s happened: Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has issued an order for Iran to strike Israel directly, in retaliation for the killing in Tehran of Hamas’s leader, Ismail Haniyeh.

In his public statement, Iran’s supreme leader, said: “we see avenging his blood our duty,” because it happened on the territory of the Islamic Republic. He said Israel had set the stage for receiving “a severe punishment.”
In a memorial ceremony held in Tehran, the Ayatollah personally led the prayers, while also speaking at the ceremony, the Speaker of the Iranian Parliament, Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, said that the Israeli regime committed a ‘strategic mistake’.
In Israel Prime Minister Netanyahu addressed the nation on Wednesday evening and described the current conflict as an “existential war against a stranglehold of terrorist armies and missiles that Iran would like to tighten around our neck.”
Speaking of Hezbollah’s number two Shukr, Netanyahu said that he “was directly responsible for the massacre of our dear boys and girls in Majdal Shams. He was responsible for the murder of many other Israeli citizens. He was responsible for the unceasing assault against our citizens in the northern communities over nine months of war.”
“He was one of the most wanted terrorists in the world. The US put a $5 million bounty on his head, and for good reason. He was involved in the murder of 241 American soldiers and 58 French soldiers in Beirut in 1983. He was the main liaison between Iran and Hezbollah and he was responsible for the organisation’s missiles,” Netanyahu added.
Defence Minister Gallant spoke to his counterpart US Secretary of State Austin who reassured him by saying, “We certainly will help defend Israel. You saw us do that April. You can expect to see us do that again.”
The US has also now deployed at least 12 warships to the region, including the aircraft carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt, amphibious assault teams and over 4,000 Marines and sailors.
In a further unconfirmed attack, Syria sources are claiming that Brig Gen Amir Ali Hajizadeh, the Commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Aerospace Forces, has been killed in a targeted attack close to Damascus. Hajizadeh is understood to have been the senior commander who oversaw the Iranian ballistic and cruise missile attack in April against Israel.

Context: While Israel has not formally taken responsibility for the strike in Tehran, the dual targets in Beirut and Tehran within a few hours appears to be an impressive intelligence and operational achievement for Israel.

Open speculation remains as to how Haniyeh was killed. Some reports suggest a missile was launched from outside Iran, while others believe the targeted killing was implemented from a closer proximity, implying operatives on the ground.
This is the latest targeted strike inside Iran, further exposing the gaps in the regime’s internal security.
As a formal guest of the Ayatollah, and staying in a ‘secure residence’ operated by the IRGC, Haniyeh’s death is seen in Iran as constituting a further psychological blow to the regime, which is likely also a factor in their consideration of response.
According to the Iranian warning, a response may come directly from Iran – similar to the attack in April in which 300+ drones and missiles were fired at the Israeli home front. Alternatively, the possibility exists that Iran will utilise all of the members of its Axis of Resistance – in Syria, Iraq and Yemen – to carry out an integrated multi-theatre response.
Israel will be partly reassured by US Secretary Austin’s support and will hope that the regional alliance between Israel, US and regional partners, known as Middle East Air Defence (MEAD), will be as effective as thwarting the Iranian attack in April.
The strikes on Haniyeh and Shukr are the latest example of an Israeli tactic to target the top leadership in Hamas and Hezbollah.
- In early January, Saleh Al-Arouri, Haniyeh’s deputy and one of the founders of the armed wing of Hamas, was killed in Beirut (although Israel did not take formal responsibility).
- In mid-July, a strike in Gaza killed Mohammed Deif, head of Hamas’ military wing. The confirmation of his death was formally recognised by Israel this morning.
- In March, Marwan Issa, Deif’s deputy was killed.
- In April, an airstrike in Damascus killed a number of senior Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) officers, including its top officer in Syria, Gen. Mohammad Reza Zahedi.

Haniyeh, who has been Hamas’ political leader since 2017, is the highest -profile member of the group to be killed following the October 7 attack and Israel’s retaliatory offensive in Gaza.
On October 7th he was recorded praying in celebration of the attacks, and called on West Bank Palestinians to join the battle.
Today is the 300^th day since October 7^th, with 115 hostages remain in Hamas captivity. Inside Israel, hostage families and their supporters continue their campaign to pressure the government to move forward with the deal.
According to Prime Minister Netanyahu the extended military campaign serves to increase the pressure on Hamas and to support Israel in the negotiations. Others are concerned Haniyeh’s death makes a deal harder to conclude.
In parallel, IDF troops are continuing operational activity in Gaza.
- In the Rafah area troops are currently operating in the area of Tel al-Sultan, where they dismantled a structure rigged with explosives that was used by Hamas terrorists.
- In the area of Khan Yunis, launchers loaded with rockets and aimed toward Israeli territory were struck by the IDF.

Looking ahead: Following the memorial ceremony in Tehran, Haniyeh’s body will be flown to Doha for a formal burial.

An Iranian response is anticipated in the coming days with Israel on a peak state of alert preparing for any scenario. Israel’s air defences are on maximum alert, the air force jets patrolling the skies and ground forces on heightened vigilance along all the borders.
The head of Israeli Air Force, Maj. Gen. Tomer Bar said, “The Israeli Air Force defends and operates in all arenas of the war, enveloping the State of Israel with dozens of aircraft, manned and unmanned, ready and prepared within minutes for any scenario, in any arena. We will act against anyone planning to harm the citizens of the State of Israel, there Is nowhere that is too far for us to strike”
So far the Israel’s Home Front command has not yet given any further instructions to the Israeli civilian population.

June 19, 2024

IDF approves plans for Lebanon offensive, as Hezbollah releases drone footage

The north: Hezbollah yesterday released a nine-minute, high quality drone-shot video showing multiple Israeli strategic assets in Haifa.

The Israeli navy’s main port base was shown, with ships visible. Hezbollah also claimed to identify other strategic sites including air defence bases and the airport.
Israeli Foreign Minister Katz commented on the incident, saying that Hezbollah leader Nasrallah “brags about filming Haifa’s ports, operated by international giants from China and India, and threatens to attack them. We’re very close to changing the rules of engagement against Hezbollah and Lebanon.”
“In a full-scale war, Hezbollah will be destroyed, and Lebanon will be severely impacted. Israel will pay a price on the front and at home, but with a strong and united people, and with the full force of the IDF, we’ll restore security to northern residents.”
The footage raises concerns about how the drone was able to both penetrate Israeli airspace and, presumably, return to Lebanon without interception.
However, the IDF claims that the drone which captured the images was under IDF surveillance for entirety of their mission but was not shot down to avoid risking injury.
The IDF is having to cope with the increasing sophistication of Hezbollah’s drone arsenal, as it is with the groups’ weapons stock more broadly. Israeli identification mechanisms are being constantly enhanced and updated to account for the greater sophistication.
Meanwhile, after a two-day lull coinciding with the Muslim holiday of Eid al-Adha, at least ten rockets were fired last night into the Galilee panhandle and the Upper Galilee. All landed in uninhabited areas, while a rocket that was fired at Kibbutz Sasa was intercepted by an Iron Dome battery.
In response, the IDF said that “IAF fighter jets struck a number of Hezbollah terror targets in southern Lebanon, including several terror infrastructure sites in the areas of Taybeh, Odaisseh, and Jibbain, as well as a military structure in the area of Ayta Ash Shab.”
At least one drone then exploded over Metulla this morning, with no injuries reported. Sirens sounded in Kiryat Shmona and other surrounding villages and the IDF is currently returning fire at Lebanon.
US envoy Amos Hochstein remains in the region to try to achieve a diplomatic resolution to increasingly intense cross-border fighting the US fears might develop into an all-out regional war.
US and French efforts over the last eight months have so far failed to produce a breakthrough. 80,000 northern Israelis remaining displaced, and Israel insists it will be forced to proceed with further operations, possibly including a ground invasion, to resecure the northern front.

Rafah: The IDF permitted a group of Israeli journalists to tour the southern Gaza city of Rafah yesterday, where what the military describes as “precise, intelligence-based” operations remain ongoing.

Nahal Brigade Commander Col. Yair Zuckerman told journalists that “the number of tunnels in this area is the largest we’ve seen in the Strip.” Zuckerman added that two of the four Hamas battalions in the city had been dismantled, though many Hamas fighters are thought to have fled to Khan Younis, having initially fled to Rafah from Khan Younis.
Visiting journalists noted the high morale of troops, many of whom have been deployed constantly since October 7^th, and the generally lower intensity of fighting in Rafah compared with other sites earlier in the war.
Zukerman said, “It’s fine to budget the use of munitions, and that is also the right thing to do professionally,” he says. “But let’s be clear: there has been no instance that I have asked for air support and not gotten it. There is no company commander who needs to fire a shell at a building and doesn’t do so. So it’s true that we aren’t using the full extent of our firepower, but I get what I need.”
Elsewhere in the south, an air raid siren sounded this morning in the Gaza periphery, warning of a hostile aircraft. Israeli media later reported that a “suspicious aerial object” had fallen in an open field, causing no casualties.
Despite political criticism, the IDF is currently maintaining a partial tactical pause to allow for the distribution of aid.
According to the IDF, “Over 1,400 trucks of Humanitarian Aid that have been transferred from Israel into the Gaza Strip remain uncollected by International Organizations and the UN on the Gazan side of the Kerem Shalom Crossing.”

Qatar: The Qatari prime minister met yesterday with Hamas’s overseas leader Ismail Haniyeh and urged him to show flexibility on a hostage deal.

Qatar has been much criticised for failing to exert greater pressure on Hamas to agree to a deal. Yesterday, however, the Gulf State was defended by US Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs, Barbara Leaf.
“Qatar really does punch above its weight, and it has a nimbleness of approach with a variety of actors that we don’t have relations with, but that we need to communicate with,” Leaf told a Senate subcommittee.
“There’s a cadre of political officials of Hamas in Doha — and boy do they squeeze them [Hamas], I can assure you they squeeze them — But at the end of the day, there’s one guy 10 stories below the ground,” Leaf continued, referring to Hamas’s Gazan leader Yahya Sinwar; “a psychopath, messianic in his own belief that he has established himself in history, and [he believes that] there’s a sunk cost of having lost thousands of fighters and carnage in Gaza.”
Reports from the US this week have suggested that Doha has threatened Hamas figures resident there with arrests, asset seizure, and expulsion if a deal is not reached.
However, as Leaf’s comments suggest, Qatar’s leverage over Sinwar is lesser than any it enjoys over Hamas’s exiled leadership, and it is unclear how much sway Haniyeh and other senior officials in Doha have over pressuring the Gazan leadership to accept a deal.
With Hamas claiming it is unable to confirm how many of the remaining 120 hostages remain alive, a senior Israeli negotiator said earlier this week that “dozens are alive, with certainty”.

Israel-US: Prime Minister Netanyahu yesterday released a statement saying that it was “inconceivable that in the past few months, the [US] administration has been withholding weapons and ammunitions to Israel. Israel, America’s closest ally, fighting for its life, fighting against Iran and our other common enemies.”

“Secretary Blinken assured me that the administration is working day and night to remove these bottlenecks. I certainly hope that’s the case. It should be the case. During World War II, Churchill told the United States, ‘Give us the tools, we’ll do the job.’ And I say, give us the tools and we’ll finish the job a lot faster.”
The White House responded by saying that “we genuinely do not know what he’s talking about. We just don’t.”
“There was one particular shipment of munitions that was paused,” Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said in response, with respect to 2000-pound bombs the US withheld over concerns about their use in the highly densely populated Rafah. “We continue to have constructive conversations with the Israelis for the release of that particular shipment and don’t have any updates on that. There are no other pauses or holds in place… Everything else is moving in due process.”
Netanyahu was also reassured/corrected by Biden envoy Amos Hochstein in their meeting earlier this week, while the White House is said to be furious about the prime minister’s remarks and set to cancel a joint American-Israeli strategic dialogue meeting on Iran in response.

Looking ahead: The IDF continues to raise the readiness of troops on the ground regarding the northern front. OC Northern Command Maj. Gen. Uri Gordin and IDF Operations Director Maj. Gen. Oded Basiuk yesterday approved operational plans for an Israeli offensive in Lebanon.

IDF officials said once more yesterday that they expected operations in Rafah to be concluded within a month. Zuckerman, though, said he expected an IDF brigade would have to remain deployed along the Philadelphi Corridor moving forward to stem the tide of illicit weapons smuggled into Gaza from Egypt

April 5, 2023

Aircraft downed on Israel’s northern border

On Sunday Israeli Air Force (IAF) helicopters and jets were scrambled after an unidentified aircraft crossed from Syria into Israeli airspace.
The aircraft was tracked by the IAF throughout the incident and was shot down in an open area over the Hula valley. The IDF spokesperson’s office confirmed the aircraft “posed no threat” and no alarm was activated.
The incident followed a report on Friday of another IAF strike inside Syria. This time the attack was in Homs in western Syria. According to Syrian reports, the attack focused on the Dabaa military airport and weapons storehouses in Qusayr, which primarily serve Hezbollah.
Syrian military officials reported that five Syrian army troops were injured in the attack and that some of the missiles were intercepted.
A Syrian military official warned Israel: “The recurring attacks point to Israel’s weakness and the inability of the treacherous army to engage on the ground. This won’t pass quietly.”
Defence Minister Yoav Gallant visited the Etzion Regional Brigade yesterday, but related remarks to the northern sector, warning, “We won’t allow the Iranians and Hezbollah to attack us. We haven’t allowed that in the past, we aren’t allowing that in the present and we won’t allow that in the future. We will push them out of Syria to the place they ought to be, and that is Iran.”

The latest attack ascribed to Israel was the third attack in four days in Syria.

More details have emerged from the strike near Damascus on Thursday night, where an Iranian military adviser was killed. According to Arab media reports, Captain Milad Haydari helped train pro-Iranian militias on fitting inaccurate rockets with precision-guiding systems. (See here for a previous BICOM paper on these).
In addition, a second Iranian official who was wounded in the previous Israeli air strike reportedly died of his injuries.
The Iranian Foreign Ministry issued a statement accusing Israel of using the attacks in Damascus to try to distract public attention away from its domestic crisis.
There are suggestions that Iran sees Israel as ripe for attack as it is perceived to be preoccupied with the domestic political turbulence. However, Israel has kept up its counterterrorism operations uninterrupted and despite the fractures inside Israeli society, the country always unites when faced with an external threat.
The UAV into Israel and the latest strikes inside Syria can be seen through the prism of the wider Israel-Iran conflict. Just in the last month.
- Iran has continued transferring weapons to Syria.
- Iran also planned a terror attack in Athens targeting Israelis and Jews.
- Iran is also looking to increase support to Palestinian terrorist groups, as seen in the explosion at Megiddo junction last month.
In parallel, Syria is continuing to rehabilitate its relations with the Arab world. In the latest rapprochement, the Syrian Foreign Minister Faisel Mekdad visited Cairo and met his Egyptian counterpart Sameh Shoukry.

Other security incidents: This morning the IDF entered Nablus to arrest two men suspected of involvement in the shooting attack in Huwara a week ago in which three IDF soldiers were injured.

In the course of the operation and the exchanges of fire that lasted more than two hours, two Palestinians were killed after shooting at the Israeli troops, and several others were injured.
Also over the weekend three Israeli soldiers were injured, one in critical condition, following a car-ramming attack in Gush Etzion.
Palestinian sources identified the attacker, who was shot at and killed, as 23-year-old Muhammad Baradiya, an officer in the Palestinian Authority’s security forces. Shortly before the attack, he posted photographs of al-Aqsa Mosque with the caption, “We’ve asked for Paradise.”
In a separate incident, Muhammad Al-Osaibi, an Israeli-Arab from Hura, was shot and killed by police in the Old City of Jerusalem. According to the police Al-Osaibi snatched one of the policemen’s guns and fired it without hitting anyone.
Hura’s Mayor Habas al-Atawneh strongly rejected the police statement that framed the incident as a terror attack, claiming Al-Osaibi had never handled a weapon, and was a medical student who wanted to help his family.
The police commanders have given backing to their forces. This morning the police said Al-Osaibi’s DNA was found on the gun.
Unusually for the Old City, the incident occurred in a cctv blind spot, with no footage available.

IDF troops are looking for parts of the downed aircraft. Only when it’s found will they be able to confirm if it was Iranian.

Ahead of Passover, a general closure will be imposed on the West Bank and crossings from the Gaza Strip suspended, but only for the first day of the festival and it will be lifted for the intermediary days.
In consideration of Ramadan and the desire to allow freedom of worship, Palestinian worshipers will be allowed to enter Jerusalem Friday to attend services on the Temple Mount.
A second closure will be imposed on the territories on the eve of the last day of Passover. However, the crossings would be opened for humanitarian and medical cases as well as for other extenuating circumstances.

December 21, 2022

Hezbollah drone shot down at Lebanese border

The IDF shot down a Hezbollah drone attempting to enter Israeli airspace on Tuesday afternoon.

The drone, identified as a quadcopter (a small device with four rotors), was intercepted near the community of Zarit close to the Lebanese border.
Afterwards the IDF said the drone was being tracked and monitored long before it reached the border.
Earlier this week Syrian sources reported on the latest air strike in the Damascus area.
According to the Syrian reports the target was a Hezbollah weapons storage facility in the Saida Zeinab district.
According to the UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, two Hezbollah operatives were killed in the air strike.
The Saudi Arabian Al-Arabiya network claimed the target was an Iranian anti-aircraft battery that had recently been deployed near the international airport in Damascus.
In a separate and unusual incident last week, an Irish UN peacekeeper was killed and several others wounded after their convoy was shot at whilst driving through the town of Al-Aqbiya in southern Lebanon.
The Irish Defence Forces said in a statement that a pair of armoured vehicles carrying eight Irish UNIFIL peacekeeping troops were fired on last Tuesday night.
Footage from the incident showed the convoy coming under machine-gun fire, with one of the vehicles subsequently losing control and overturning.
The UN confirmed that one peacekeeper was killed as a result of the gunfire and have opened an investigation.
Hezbollah’s use of drones has increased over the last few months, in the summer drones were dispatched to film Israel’s off shore gas rig, prior to the Israel-Lebanese maritime agreement.
The IDF is thought to have several methods for downing drones. In the past it has deployed fighter jets, helicopters, the Iron Dome system, their own drones or electronic jamming. They did not reveal which technology was used on this occasion.
In addition, Hezbollah operatives have continued to raise their presence on Israel’s border, they have increased their patrols and openly monitor and document Israeli troop movements.
Hezbollah has also set up dozens of lookout posts along the border.
Hezbollah is also continuing efforts to strengthen its presence in Syria. Last week it was reported that the IDF attacked a Hezbollah facility in the area of As-Suwayda, in the south-west of Syria, not far from the Israeli border.
Following that incident the IDF dropped leaflets in the area, warning Syrian military personnel against continuing to allow Hezbollah to operate in the area.
Iranian attempts to smuggle advanced weapons continues both by air to various Syrian airports, and also via land, through Iraq and Syria.
In a rare revelation last week, IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Aviv Kochavi confirmed that Israel was behind an attack on a weapons shipment on the Iraqi-Syrian border last month.
He revealed that in a convoy of 25 fuel trucks Israeli intelligence had identified the eighth vehicle as containing weapons.
As well as thwarting the smuggling, Kochavi’s comments highlight Israel’s intelligence and operational capabilities.

Responding to the attempted drone infiltration the IDF said it will continue to prevent any attempt to violate Israeli sovereignty.

There are serious concerns, based on Israeli intelligence information, that Iran is looking to establish a new weapons route direct to Beirut airport. Israel has passed on warnings that it would not hesitate to bomb the airport. This would be a dramatic development, and it’s unclear how Hezbollah and other actors would respond.

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