What’s happened: Missile attacks from Iran and rocket attacks from Lebanon continued to strike Israeli cities and towns overnight and this morning. Injuries were reported in Kafr Qassem, a large Arab town in central Israel northeast of Tel Aviv, as well as in Shaar Shomron, a small West Bank settlement, and Kiryat Bialik, a suburb of Haifa, from Iranian illegal cluster munitions.

• In the past 24 hours  Hezbollah launched approximately 600 rockets, drones, and mortars toward Israel and IDF soldiers operating  in southern Lebanon.
• Israel’s offensive in Lebanon and Iran continued, even as diplomatic developments lead to changing target priorities on both fronts.
  • An IDF soldier was killed and another was wounded in a firefight in southern Lebanon. Staff Sgt. Ori Greenberg, 21, of the Golani Brigade’s Reconnaissance Unit was killed in an exchange of fire with Hezbollah guerrillas in southern Lebanon early this morning.
  • The IDF reports that several Hezbollah fighters were killed in the operation without giving an exact number. The IDF also released footage this morning of the demolition of a Hezbollah command centre as well as a weapons depot that were both destroyed in an operation by carried out by the Golani Brigade.
  • The IDF also reported this morning that it had successfully eliminated the commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy, Alireza Tangsiri in Bandar Abbas, the Iranian port on the northern side of the Strait of Hormuz. Tangsiri was the man responsible for the closure of the Strait, which has been the one significant Iranian tactical success in the war so far.
  • The IDF also struck major naval and aerial weapons development sites in Iran yesterday, with particular emphasis on sites in Isfahan. The strikes included Iran’s Underwater Research Centre in Isfahan, the only facility in Iran for the design and development of submarines and support systems for the Iranian Navy.
• The US reported that as of yesterday it had hit 10,000 targets in Iran so far. The number did not include targets hit by Israel.
• Iran publicly rejected the US 15-point plan for ending the war. The proposal was conveyed to Iran by Pakistan, and was believed to offer sanctions relief in exchange for major Iranian concessions on its nuclear programme, ballistic missile programme, support for regional proxies, and the ongoing Iranian blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
• In anticipation of a possible US invasion of its strategically important Kharg Island, Iran made several dramatic threats yesterday against the US and its allies. Military officials threatened to target shipping in the Red Sea — something that Iran would be unlikely to pull off on its own, but would indicate the entry into the conflict of its proxy militia in Yemen, the Houthis.
• Iran also claimed that an unnamed Gulf state was planning on joining the US in an invasion of Kharg, and threatened to attack vital infrastructure in that unnamed country if such an invasion were to be launched.
• In Kuwait, six men were arrested over an alleged Hezbollah plot to assassinate Kuwaiti leaders. According to Kuwaiti reports, fourteen more members of the terror cell managed to flee the country before arrest.

Context: Though the positions of the US and Iran are still miles apart, Israeli officials take very seriously the possibility that the US will declare a ceasefire as early as this weekend. This possibility has several implications for how Israel conducts its offensive in the coming days.

• The choice of targets in Iran being hit by the Israeli Air Force has shifted this week to largely military targets, with much less emphasis on regime targets. What this means practically is that Israel is using what might be a limited and closing window of opportunity to degrade as much as possible Iran’s capacity to store, manufacture, or develop weapons that would serve it in future rounds of fighting.
• At the same time, the Israel has scaled back the strikes against Basij and other targets that would weaken the regime and making cracking down on a new uprising after a ceasefire harder. This could either be because of an assessment that the regime is now stable, or that the effort expended on each Basij strike — for example, taking out one checkpoint — is far too high relative to the benefit. If it is really the case that the war could be ending before a decisive blow is delivered to the regime, Israeli decision makers might calculate that it is best to use the time remaining to weaken Iran’s capacity to attack Israel in the future.
• The possibility of a ceasefire also affects Israel’s calculations in Lebanon. Israel has thus far refrained from a large land operation in Lebanon, though it has moved limited forces in and established strongpoints beyond those that were left from the 2024 ceasefire. With most of the Lebanon offensive thus far having been an Air Force operation, and the Air Force needed to put in the final blows in Iran, the Lebanon offensive has been, in the last two days at least, pushed down the priority list.
• There is also a debate in Israel about striking major infrastructure targets in Iran, with serious consideration being given to pushing that before a ceasefire is implemented. The perception in Iran that the Islamic regime has won the war is not just propaganda, but appears to reflect how Iranian officials genuinely believe events have unfolded. To this end, Israeli decision makers, together with many in the Gulf countries too, believe that only significant damage to Iranian energy infrastructure can change that perception, with all the anticipated effects both regionally and domestically.

Looking ahead: Major diplomatic efforts are underway to reach an agreement between Iran and the United States that would bring an end to the current war.

• Egypt, Turkey, and Pakistan have positioned themselves as mediators between the two warring parties. Oman, which had mediated talks before the war broke out, has faded somewhat.
• Pakistani efforts have received the most public attention. There were conflicting reports yesterday that US Vice President JD Vance could be headed to Islamabad for indirect talks with the Iranians.
• Meanwhile, Pakistani officials claimed that they conveyed a request to Israel not to eliminate Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and its parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, so that the two men could conduct indirect talks with the US under Pakistani mediation. According to the same Pakistani officials, Israel acceded to the request.

What’s happened: A Hezbollah rocket killed an Israeli woman in northern Israel yesterday. Nuriel Dubin, aged 27, was in her car when a rocket struck the Mahanayim Junction. Her fiancé was injured in the attack. The two had met in the immediate aftermath of the October 7 attack when he was evacuated from his home to a hotel in the Kinneret area where she worked as a teacher.

• Since Hezbollah entered the war on March 2, the Iran-backed terrorist group in Lebanon has been launching an average of 150 rockets a day. Some of its barrages have been timed with Iranian missile attacks on Israel’s north as well. Over the same period, according to official Israeli figures, the IDF has killed 600 Hezbollah combatants, including 220 of the group’s elite Radwan Force.
• In the most significant diplomatic development on Israeli northern border, Lebanon has expelled the Iranian ambassador yesterday and withdrawn their own ambassador from Tehran. This a further escalation of tensions between the two countries, following the expulsion of Iranian military personnel last week.
• Following on the dramatic announcement by President Trump the day before to defer planned attacks on Iran’s energy infrastructure, the US yesterday conveyed to Iran a 15-point plan for ending the current war. The text of the plan has not been made public, but according to media reports, it goes far beyond a simple ceasefire and includes details regarding most of the outstanding issues that were being negotiated by the two sides in the weeks prior to the Israeli attacks on Iran in June 2025 and February 2026. These include not just the Iranian nuclear programme, but also the ballistic missile programme and Iran’s support for regional proxies.
• The plan was conveyed through Pakistan, which has emerged as a possible mediator between Iran and the United States, along with Oman, Egypt and Turkey. Notably, there has been no reported mediation role for Qatar, which has found itself on the receiving end of Iranian missile and drone attacks since the current war began.
• President Trump struck an optimistic note regarding the diplomatic process, noting that “we’re talking to the right people,” without revealing who those people were. He alluded cryptically to a significant Iranian concession, without saying what it was. “They gave us a present, and the present arrived today,” Trump said to reporters in the Oval Office. “I’m not going to tell you what that present is, but it was a very significant prize.” Pressed for more details, he would only say that it was “oil- and gas-related.” Other reports during the day indicated that Iran was considering opening the passage through the Straits of Hormuz to non-belligerent countries, something that if implemented would remove a major looming threat to global energy markets.
• With the US threat to attack energy infrastructure off the table until the end of trading this week, oil prices have fallen again to around $90 a barrel on global markets.
• More details were reported today regarding Israel’s air strike on Iran’s Caspian port Bandar Anzali last Wednesday. Satellite images show significant damage to Iran’s naval headquarters and numerous destroyed naval vessels. The IAF hit dozens of targets including warships, a port, a command centre and a shipyard used to repair and maintain vessels. The attack hobbled a smuggling route that was crucial for both Iranian and Russian war efforts and sanctions evasion.
• Meanwhile, the UK has offered to host a security summit about opening the Strait of Hormuz.

Context: The exact text of the American 15-point proposal is unknown.

• However, it  is believed to contain some of the following conditions:
  • Three main nuclear sites in Iran would be dismantled.
  • All enrichment activities in Iran would be banned.
  • The ballistic missile programme would be suspended.
  • Support for regional proxies would be curbed.
  • The Strait of Hormuz would be fully reopened.
  • Sanctions related to Iran’s nuclear programme would be lifted. Sanctions connected to human rights abuses would stay in place.
  • The United States would provide direct assistance for Iran’s civilian nuclear programme, while also monitoring it.
• It is unclear what the US propose to do with the 450kg of highly enriched uranium (HEU), and whether they will seek to remove it or dilute it.
• The Iranians have also made a list of demands for an agreement with the US. Some of them would be extraordinary gains for Iran even if the war had been characterised by stunning Iranian military successes, which it decidedly has not been. These demands include:
  • Turning the Strait of Hormuz into an Iranian-managed passageway where Iran would collect fees, similar to the Suez Canal — though of course, the Suez Canal artificial and located inside Egypt and the Strait of Hormuz in an international waterway.
  • Guarantees that neither Israel nor the US could attack Iran again, together with a guarantee that Israel could not attack Lebanon.
  • The lifting of all sanctions on Iran, not just those related to the nuclear programme.
  • Permitting Iran to keep and develop ballistic missiles with no limitations.
• Israeli officials remain sceptical regarding the prospects of an agreement along the lines of either proposal. To the extent one can be reached, Israel is concerned that the implementation will run along the lines of ceasefires with Hamas and Hezbollah, with the major steps called for in the beginning carried out in full, but with the provisions regarding disarmament dragging on to the point where attention lags, urgency fades, and the threat to renew hostilities in light of violations becomes ineffective.

Looking ahead: In the meantime, US continues to move Marines and airborne forces into the theatre of conflict, raising the possibility of a limited land manoeuvre either on Kharg Island or on shore of the Hormuz Strait. 3,000 troops are reported to have arrived already. 2,200 more Marines are due on Friday.

• Even a successful agreement on Iran won’t necessarily end the current fighting in Lebanon where Israel has yet to embark on a large land offensive. Israel destroyed five more bridges of the Litani River over the past 48 hours, and according to Defence Minister Katz, “the IDF will control the remaining bridges and the security zone up to the Litani.”

What’s happened: Two Israelis, an elderly couple in their 70’s, were killed in an Iranian missile attack on Ramat Gan overnight. The couple were at home during the attack, but did not manage to make it to the safe room in their apartment in time. The missile fired at central Israel contained a cluster munition, which splits into multiple small explosives distributed over a broad area. Its use over an urban area, targeting civilians is a war crime.

• An Israeli air strike eliminated Irans’s Supreme National Security Council Secretary Ali Larijani, who had been functioning as Iran’s de facto wartime leader. He was killed in a strike on a safe house in a suburb of Tehran.
• At the same time, a separate attack targeted a meeting of top commanders of the notorious Basij, the regime’s internal security force largely responsible for the massacre of tens of thousands of Iranian protesters in January. This strike eliminated at least ten senior Basij commanders, including the force’s top commander Gholamreza Reza Soleimani and his deputy, Rasem Qureishi.
• A later strike targeted Iran’s intelligence minister, Esmaeil Khatib. This morning, Israel’s Defence Minister Katz announced that Khatib, whose ministry supported global terrorism as well brutal domestic repression, was eliminated. 
• Hezbollah launched another massive barrage of rockets on northern Israel last night, similar to the one it launched six days before. Like the March 11 attacks, this one involved about 200 rockets, many of which fell short and landed in Lebanon.
• Unlike on March 11, this time the Israeli Home Front Command did not wait until just one hour before to share with the public that an attack was planned. The attacks caused some limited damage but no injuries or deaths in Israel.
• In Gaza, an Israeli air strike killed Yahya Abu Labda, a commander in Hamas’s supply and logistics department who was responsible for advancing Hamas’ “precision missile project,” according the the IDF Spokesperson.

Context: Whilst the targeted eliminations at the beginning of the war demonstrated impressive intelligence penetration, it also relied on the element of surprise. The strikes against the top brass of the Iranian security apparatus yesterday and overnight show the dynamic capability of Israeli intelligence to be able to locate high value targets, even when they know they are being targeted.

• Israeli analysts have noted that the elimination of Ali Larijani may be even more significant than that of the Supreme Leader, as it was Larijani that was a more hands on decision maker and more central both to the war and the repression of Iranian protestors.  
• Israeli officials hold out two metrics for assessing damage to the IRGC in general and the Basij in particular. First, they look to see whether command and control is disrupted. Second, they look for defections.
• On the first measure there appears to be broad success. Giving orders and responding to tactical developments is becoming increasingly impossible for Iranian armed forces of all kinds.
• On the second measure, nothing has moved yet. No prominent defections have been recorded. No senior officials have sought refuge in neighbouring countries. And despite scattered media reports which may themselves be psychological warfare, there are no significant incidents of forces abandoning post or laying down arms.
• A report in The Guardian yesterday suggests that the UK national security adviser Jonathan Powell had attended some of the indirect talks conducted between the US and Iran before the war began on February 28. However, according to Bloomberg, Downing Street has denied that Powell was present at the negotiations.
• The Guardian report aimed to present the Iranian position as moderate, compromising, and “surprisingly” reasonable. However, even the most generous interpretation of the last Iranian offer would have left it with nuclear capabilities far beyond any of the red lines set by the Americans.
• Moreover, the Iranian offer contained nothing regarding the other issues which the US had put down as priorities for any kind of deal: the missile programme, Iran’s network of regional proxies, and its repression of anti-regime protests in January.
• The bit of The Guardian which made the biggest splash (and was used to promote it on social media) was a quote, initially attributed to Powell, that US negotiators Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff were “Israeli assets that dragged a president into a war he wants to get out of.” A corrected version of the article removed that attribution and instead attributed the quote to an unnamed diplomat from a Gulf country, the attribution the quote retains in a longer subsequent article the Guardian ran today, which once more prominently featured this assessment of the US negotiators.
• Regardless of the provenance of the quote, this description of Witkoff and Kushner is ironic from an Israeli perspective as throughout the entire lead up to the war, officials in Jerusalem regarded the two as the biggest obstacles to a firmer US line on Iran. Leaks from Israeli officials routinely derided both as desperate to reach a deal, even an inadequate one, with Tehran, while most Israelis were finding a more receptive opening with Secretaries Rubio and Hegseth.
• At the same time, both Kushner and Witkoff are Jewish. That a Gulf official would see two senior US officials who happen to be Jewish as “Israeli assets” driving America to a war it does’t want isn’t terribly surprising. That officials in Whitehall or editors at the Guardian see this not as a window into the prevailing views in the Arab world but rather as a deep revelation about what happened behind the scenes is, to say the least, a cause for concern.
• Insinuations about nefarious influence weren’t limited to the British left yesterday. A senior aide to Tulsi Gabbard, President Trump’s controversial Director of National Intelligence, Joe Kent resigned from the Trump Administration yesterday over his opposition to the war in Iran.
• Joe Kent’s appointment to the position last year was met with a great deal of opposition following his close associations with an assortment of neo-Nazis, white supremacists, and other far-right figures. His resignation letter, like the Guardian’s reporting, alleged that the United States were fighting the war in Iran for Israel and not for US interests.
• It further insinuated that both the war in Iraq two decade ago as well as the allied campaign against ISIS in the last decade — in which his wife, a naval intelligence officer, was killed — were both caused by Israel.
• In fact, Israel played no part in the Iraq War in 2003, and Israeli Prime Minister was later revealed to have privately warned the US against the war for fear that it might strengthen Iran. The campaign against ISIS too did not involve Israel in any way. At many points, in fact, Israel’s opposition to pro-Iranian forces in both Iraq and Syria led many commentators to (falsely) accuse Israel of supporting ISIS, making Kent’s accusation not just a lie, but a deeply ironic one.

Looking ahead: Despite a large call-up of reserves and frequent pronouncements by senior Israeli officials about an imminent ground operation in southern Lebanon, there has been so significant movement of the IDF across the border.

• In the background, several countries, including France among others, have floated proposals for negotiations between Jerusalem and Beirut for an agreement that would prevent an expanded war.
• It is unclear if any of these initiatives might lead to serious negotiations, and they are treated, in public at least, with great scepticism. At the same time, the large military offensive that was expected already last week has not been launched. Defence Minister Katz also alluded to more “significant surprises” to come.

What’s happened: The IDF announced this morning that it has expanded its ground operations in southern Lebanon.

• Three divisions are now operating in southern Lebanon, with more expected to join them. The IDF says it has struck about 1,000 Hezbollah targets since the start of the war, and has eliminated around 400 Hezbollah operatives.
• The IDF continues to carry out a large-scale attacks against Iranian regime infrastructure targets in Tehran and other parts of the country. On Sunday, the IDF struck 200 targets across western and central Iran. The focus continues to be the further degrading of ballistic missiles array and other military targets.  
• IDF Spokesperson Brig. Gen. Defrin told the Israeli public, “Our achievements are greater than we expected. The opening strike was very successful and consequently, so are our other attacks that have hit the Iranian regime. And we are intensifying the blow. Every day, the achievement increases and intensifies. And as a result, this is destabilising this regime. That is the reality. We are ahead of schedule.”
• Despite a relative decrease in Iranian attacks over the weekend, missile fire from Iran was resumed Sunday night. Air raid sirens were activated twice in Beer Sheva and its environs, in the Dead Sea area and in the Gaza periphery. No casualties were reported.
• In parallel Hezbollah continues its more intensive but short range attacks against northern Israel.  
• Kan News reported that at the end of last week, Hamas secretly sent a letter to the new Iranian leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, and urged him to launch an uncompromising multi-theatre war. Hamas further committed not relinquish its arms, and called to activate all the theatres of the axis of resistance, including Lebanon, Yemen and Iraq, to exact a price from Israel. Hamas also fiercely attacked the Persian Gulf states that seek to establish normalised relations with Israel and said that the normalisation camp was a losing camp.

Context: As the war enters its third week, both US and Israeli officials sound upbeat at the military  achievements to date.

• The  tight US – Israel  military cooperation continues with a  clear division of labour. Each military is carrying out their attacks in different strike zones, but with a shared intelligence target bank. Each sides has senior liaison officers in each other’s headquarters whilst a special intelligence team operates in Israel, feeds targets in real time to both militaries.  
• According to the IDF Military Intelligence Directorate, the Israel Air Force has so far destroyed 100 Iranian anti-aircraft batteries and another 120 radars, providing it with absolute air superiority. Seventy percent of Iran’s missile launchers have been either destroyed, decommissioned or buried out of reach inside tunnels.
• Military intelligence now assesses that Iran’s missile production has dropped to zero, but ongoing attacks are needed to prevent the Iranians from trying to resume production. Moreover, the volume of missile fire on Israel needs to be reduced further.
• Rumours circulated over the weekend that the IDF is running out of interceptor missiles, based on a  report on the US website Semafor, that claimed Israel informed the US that it suffers from a severe shortage in missiles used to intercept ballistic missiles. This led the IDF to issue a statement, “As of now, there is no interceptor shortage. The IDF prepared for prolonged combat. We are continuously monitoring the situation.” In addition it was cleared for publication that Israel’s cabinet approved allocating NIS 2.6 billion (£626m) for further purchases for the war.
• There are initial signs of diplomatic efforts to bring the war to an end.  Most significantly regarding Lebanon. Former Minister Dermer is once more serving as an envoy for the Prime Minister. Over the weekend he visited Saudi Arabia to discuss a peace initiative between Israel and Lebanon for after the fighting is over. One initiative aims to turn Hezbollah into a political movement without any military capabilities. The Lebanese government, the White House and the French are all party to the talks.
• President Trump warned NATO could face a “very bad future” if US allies refused to help secure the Strait of Hormuz. Trump said countries that benefit from the shipping lane should contribute forces, including minesweepers and personnel to counter “bad actors” along Iran’s coast. “If there’s no response or if it’s a negative response I think it will be very bad for the future of NATO.”
• In response, the UK is working alongside allies on plan to reopen Strait of Hormuz as announced this morning by Keir Starmer. 
• The fear of rising energy prices from the closure of the Straits  – where 20% of the world’s oil passes – has led to an agreement by over 30 nations in Europe, North America and Northeast Asia to flood the market with 400 million barrels of oil. The US is leading the effort with a release of 172 million barrels from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve.
• Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait and the UAE export approximately 14 million barrels per day. Approximately 5 million barrels per day can be exported using Saudi and UAE pipelines that end at the Red Sea and Gulf of Oman. The remaining 9 million barrels per day constitutes about 10% of global supply and can only pass through the Strait.
• The closure of Hormuz provides strategic leverage to Iran. If Israel and the US prove unable to force the re-opening of the Straits, it will show Iran to be a regional hegemon which will provide it with leverage over the Gulf Countries and others.
• Against the backdrop of this challenge, over the weekend, Trump announced that the US had “executed one of the most powerful bombing raids in the History of the Middle East, and totally obliterated every MILITARY target in Iran’s crown jewel, Kharg Island.” Trump added that the oil infrastructure on the island was not destroyed but warned that “should Iran, or anyone else, do anything to interfere with the Free and Safe Passage of Ships through the Strait of Hormuz, I will immediately reconsider this decision.”

Looking ahead: Two more IDF divisions are expected to join operations in southern Lebanon in the next few days.

• European Union foreign ministers will discuss a potential ⁠widening of ⁠the EU Aspides naval mission to the Strait of Hormuz. The report in the Financial Times suggested that an EU-UN joint naval mission to ensure ⁠safe passage “seems more likely” than EU countries approaching ⁠Iran bilaterally.
• Israel and the US have approved operational plans for the next three weeks. The plan is to destroy all of the Iranian regime’s components and capabilities.

What’s happened: A massive coordinated barrage of rocket and missile fire on northern Israel was carried out by Hezbollah and Iran yesterday evening, marking a significant escalation in the Lebanese front of the war, which opened on March 2 with a much smaller Hezbollah attack on northern Israel.

• 200 Hezbollah rockets were fired on northern Israel, with a smaller barrage from Iran also hitting Israel’s north at the exact same time. Interceptions were carried out by Iron Dome, as the new laser-based Iron Beam interceptor is not yet operational.
• In the hours prior to the attack, rumours circulated in Israel of an impending escalation without specific details. As the hour approached, Home Front Command urged all Israelis in the country’s north to remain close to shelters. Most of the projectiles were intercepted or landed in open fields. Two Israelis were lightly injured in the attack.
• Following the coordinated attack on northern Israel, the IDF launched a massive airstrike on Lebanon, focusing on Hezbollah strongholds such as the Dahiya quarter of Beirut. The IDF reported destroying ten different Hezbollah command posts and dozens of rocket launchers.
• Lebanese authorities report that since the fighting began last week 700,000 people have been displaced. Official death tolls list 439 men, 45 women, and 86 children, without any breakdown of combatants and non-combatants.
• The destruction of Iranian air defences has opened the skies of Iran to further attacks on regime targets, while the volume of Iranian missile fire on Israel continues to decline.Israeli aircraft struck regime targets throughout the day yesterday, including the headquarters of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), the IRGC air force command centre, the IRGC military academy, and various sites connected to the Basij militia that is notorious for its human rights breaches and crackdown against January’s mass protests that killed tens of thousands.
• Unnamed US sources were quoted in Israeli media saying that Iran was running out of missile launchers, and that within days it would cease to be able to mount significant missile attacks on its neighbours. Air strikes on the regime-affiliated bank meant that it was unable to pay salaries to civil servants or the military, something US officials believe will hasten the regime’s collapse. The American assessment is that the IRGC and the Basij have sustained thousands of casualties, that their bases and headquarters are all largely destroyed, and that communications between unit commanders and forces in the field is partial at best.
• Prime Minister Netanyahu and Finance Minister Smotrich announced yesterday that they were putting the controversial bill which would formalise draft exemptions for the Haredi public on hold in order to retool the 2026 budget bill and pass it by the mandatory deadline of March 31. According to Israeli law, if no budget is passed by that date, parliament is automatically dissolved and a snap election is called.  The Government is now calling for an across-the-board cut of 3% in all ministries to pay for the war.

Looking ahead: Two major strategic dilemmas lurk for Israeli and American decision makers as the war continues.

• In Lebanon, Israel has to decide whether to  broaden its strikes beyond narrow Hezbollah targets. It is keen for Lebanon to feel the pressure of the ceasefire violations, and this is crucial for any future deterrence as well. On the other hand, recent pronouncements from Beirut hold open the possibility that Lebanon may finally be serious about reining Hezbollah in itself and possibly even negotiating a peace deal with Israel, something Israel would be reluctant to sabotage if indeed it is a real possibility.
• The issue of Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium (HEU) has not gone away, though its current whereabouts and status are shrouded in mystery since the US bombing in on the Fordow facility last June in Operation Midnight Hammer. Media reports indicate that both the US and Israel have drawn up plans for a potential ground operation using special forces at the site. Removing the HEU was a key demand of the US in the unsuccessful round of negotiations that preceded the outbreak of hostiles on February 28.

What’s happened: President Trump indicated he was ready to end the war on Iran sooner rather than later. “It’s going to be ended soon,” he told reporters in Florida, “and if it starts up again they’ll be hit even harder.”

• Trump’s comments had an immediate effect on commodity prices, notably causing a rapid fall in oil prices, which had risen dramatically the day before. But the pace of attacks on Iran, and Iranian missile fire on Israel, did not materially change.
• Prime Minister Netanyahu, for his part, also made comments that indicated that Israel does not intend to continue fighting this war until the Iranian regime completely collapses. “Our aspiration is to bring the Iranian people to throw off the yoke of tyranny,” he said during a visit late last night to the National Health Emergency Operations Center. “Ultimately it depends on them. But there is no doubt that through the actions taken so far we are breaking their bones — and our arm is still outstretched.”
• Two more civilians were killed in Israel yesterday from Iranian missiles. Both were constructions workers on site in the central city of Yehud, not far from Ben Gurion Airport.
• The name of the second of two soldiers killed in combat in Lebanon was released yesterday. Or Demry, 20, from Liman, near the northern border, was killed along with Maher Khatar 38. Khatar is the first IDF fatality from the Golan Druze community. Unlike Druze from inside Israel’s pre-1967 borders, Golan Druze almost never served in the IDF until very recently.
• Hezbollah too launched a barrage of rockets on central Israel yesterday. One missile hit the city centre of Ramleh, injuring 16.
• Following on Israel’s threat last week that Iranian regime officials in Lebanon who did not immediately leave the country would become targets, the IDF launched a targeted strikes on one hotel room in the Ramada Hotel in Beirut’s upscale Raouché district. The strike eliminated  five senior members of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, all of whom were involved in financing and directing terrorist operations among Iran’s Lebanese and Palestinian clients. Ten other people were injured in the strike. At least 150 Iranian nationals are known to have left Lebanon since Israel issued the unusual threat last week.
• Meanwhile, the Israel Air Force continued its offensive operations over Iran. IAF airplanes struck the IRGC’s Quds Force Command Centre in Tehran, as well as a missile production and storage site in Isfahan. Airstrikes also disabled at least six Iranian airfields and destroyed the IRGC’s headquarters for unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs).
• Trump administration envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff were due to arrive in Israel today, but their visit has been cancelled. It had been intended to discuss strategic coordination between Washington and Jerusalem over the Iran war and, in particular, to focus on reactions among US allies in the Gulf.

Context: As the IDF continues its offensive operations in Lebanon in response to Hezbollah rocket and drone fire, potentially dramatic diplomatic developments are afoot.

• Lebanese President Joseph Aoun lashed out at Hezbollah in comments yesterday to European officials, saying “Whoever launched those missiles wanted to bring about the collapse of the Lebanese state, plunging it into aggression and chaos… all for the sake of the Iranian regime’s calculation.” He proposed a four-point plan to end the war that would include “establishing a full truce” with Israel and direct negotiations.
• Reports in US media indicated that Aoun was even open to the possibility of negotiating a full peace agreement with Israel, though both US and Israeli officials were reported to be sceptical about the seriousness of the proposal.
• Israeli commentators focused on the strategic dilemma Israel finds itself in at this point in the conflict on its northern border. On the one hand, military achievements from both the 2024 war with Hezbollah and the current fighting have pushed Lebanon into making diplomatic overtures that have been an Israeli wish for decades. If there is a genuine option for concluding the state of war that has been in place for nearly eight decades with Lebanon, there is every reason to pursue it.
• On the other hand, diplomatic and military conditions are ripe for an offensive which could land a deadly and unrecoverable blow on Hezbollah, weakened by the 2024, cut off from its Syrian land bridge, and nearly abandoned by its Iranian patron now deep in survival mode in the face of a massive US-Israeli barrage. To step back from this once-in-a-generation opportunity for the IDF to destroy its most tenacious regional enemy might not be a risk worth taking.
• Avi Issacharoff writes in Yediot Ahronot, “What Israel must understand above all about Hezbollah is precisely what Israel has failed to understand about Hamas all these years, including after October 7: This is an extremist religious organisation that will not hesitate to use any means at its disposal to hurt the other side. They are not afraid of suffering a large number of casualties or damage to real estate, as Hezbollah sustained in Israeli air strikes on the Dahiya Quarter. This is an organisation that has sent hundreds of people to their deaths fighting in Syria in order to save an Alawite tyrant [then president Bashar al-Assad] because that is what Iran ordered it to do. This organisation will do everything it can to cause Lebanon to go up in flames, if only in order to rekindle the broad support [it once enjoyed] in that country. Hezbollah was the side party that invented suicide terrorism in the Middle East, and it does not appear that disarming the group and handing it to one Lebanese government or another will be a simple matter of Israeli bombings from the air.”
• Since Hezbollah joined the war on March 2, most of its rocket fire in this war has been aimed at northern Israel. For Israeli residents, the difference between attacks from Lebanon and Iran is in the lead time to seek shelter: Alerts are sounded when Iranian missile fire is detected, usually five minutes before the sirens that indicate 90 seconds to impact. This gives most people enough time to seek a hardened shelter. With rocket fire from Lebanon, there is no alert, just the siren that gives 90 seconds. For anyone not near a hardened shelter, this is just enough to find a stairwell or some windowless room to seek shelter.
• The weapon that has been a leading source of concern for the Israeli home front was the cluster munitions affixed to Iranian ballistic missiles. These work by releasing a cluster of two dozen or so submunitions from a missile warhead about 10km above the ground, which then disperse over a wide area. They are designed to be used over large military targets, such as airfields, and their use over cities in the manner that Iran has used them in both this war and the Twelve Day War last June is illegal under international law.

What’s happened: The IDF and the US armed forces have kept up relentless strikes against the Iranian regime and military targets.

• In the last 24 hours, more than 140 targets of the Iranian regime were bombed using more than 900 munitions.  IDF Spokesperson Defrin said last night that the air force headquarters of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps had been destroyed.  The headquarters had been used to fire missiles and drones at the Israeli home front and at the Persian Gulf states.
• On Sunday, the IDF eliminated Abu al-Qassem Baba’iyan in Tehran. Baba’iyan was only recently appointed as the Head of the Military Office of the Supreme Leader and the Chief of Staff of the emergency command of Headquarters. Baba’iyan was appointed after his predecessor, Ali Shadmani, was eliminated during Operation Rising Lion in June 2024.
• Israel also targeted Iranian fuel storage facilities in Tehran on Saturday. This was the first reported attacks on Iran’s oil infrastructure since the start of the war. The IDF said the fuel was used for their missiles programme and to support their military and was therefore a legitimate target.
• Iran meanwhile continues to fire missiles at Israel and overnight, air raid sirens were triggered in the centre of the country, the south, and the coastal region.  Some of the missiles were intercepted and the others fell in uninhabited areas. There are reports this morning of six missiles hitting Tel Aviv area with two reportedly killed. Meanwhile, communities in the north remain under frequent rocket and drone attacks from Hezbollah.
• The IDF has also continued its offensive again Hezbollah targets. This morning it carried out several waves of strikes on Hezbollah targets in Beirut’s Dahiya neighbourhood. Lebanese media also reported an Israeli strike in southern Lebanon.
• Also over the weekend, the Israeli Navy conducted a precision strike that eliminated five senior commanders in the IRGC Quds Force’s Lebanon Corps, while they were meeting at a hotel in Beirut.
• Two IDF soldiers were killed on the Lebanese border yesterday. Sgt. Maj. Maher Khatar, 38, was laid to rest last night in Majdal Shams. The name of the second soldier has not yet been released. Prime Minister Netanyahu eulogised Maher as, “a brave fighter from the Druze community, [who] served as an example and inspiration to the youth of Majdal Shams who enlist in the ranks of the IDF, a growing trend in recent years that serves as an expression of the eternal covenant between us.”
• Over the past week, in Lebanon, the IDF revealed that it, “struck over 600 terror targets across Lebanon from the air, sea, and ground, with some 820 munitions. During the strikes, more than 190 terrorists were eliminated, including the terrorist Abu Hamza Rami, the Commander of Islamic Jihad in Lebanon with the equivalent rank of Major General, two commanders at the equivalent rank of colonel, and three battalion commanders in the terrorist organisation. In addition, 27 waves of strikes were conducted in the Beirut region, including five in the Dahiya area.”
• Iranian attacks on the Gulf states continued on Sunday, despite President Pezeshkian’s pledge on Saturday to halt them. This may suggest a rift between the political leadership and the IRGC, which is responsible for most military operations. The attacks are now targeting oil refineries and desalination plants that are vital to the economy and daily life in the Gulf states.

Context: Ten days into the campaign, the US and Israel continue their division of labour with systematic strikes on Iran’s military and industrial capabilities.

• In the context of the war’s second phase (following the first phase of decapitation and establishing air superiority across most of Iran), the Israeli and US Air Forces are expanding the scope of their operations to increase the damage on Iran’s military, industrial and technological infrastructure. This includes strikes on IRGC headquarters, IRGC Air Force command centres, Basij and internal security headquarters.
• An IDF general is quoted in Yediot Ahronot saying, “We can’t miss this opportunity. We mustn’t take our foot off the gas pedal until this regime collapses—neither we nor the United States. This is an opportunity that we won’t get again.”
• From Israel’s perspective, one of the primary objectives remains the elimination of Iran’s ballistic missile arsenal. According to military estimates, Iran began the war with approximately 460 missile launchers and now has only about 150 left. Military officials describe creating ‘bottlenecks’ in the Iranian ability to launch heavy barrages, but they do retain some capabilities. Overall Iran has so far launched around 250 ballistic missiles towards Israel. Israel had anticipated around 150 a day.
• 13 people have been killed in Israel  as a result of the Iranian strikes, with several more severely injured, including the fatalities from this morning. 
• Overall, Iran has so far launched a total of around 830 ballistic missiles and over 1,300 drones across the region. On the first day, Iran launched around 350 ballistic missiles and nearly 300 drones.  Over the weekend, this had fallen to roughly 15–30 missiles a day.
• The apparent appointment of Mojtaba Khamenei, the son of the late Supreme Leader is being interpreted as a sign of ongoing Iranian belligerence. Israel’s Defence Minister Katz has stated that any successor would be considered a target. A more conciliatory candidate could have posed more of a dilemma, particularly for some US officials who have expressed a desire to reach a surrender agreement with a more pragmatic leadership.

Looking ahead: At present, the IDF is preparing for a war that could last several weeks.

• Israeli military leaders recognise that the war will last as long as President Trump decides. Trump has suggested a military campaign would last about four weeks.
• Israeli officials are conscious that as successful as their military action may be, it will ultimately also require action by the Iranian public in order to topple the regime.
• In the US, there is speculation that Trump is considering sending in special forces in order to seize the stockpile of Iran’s approximate 450 kg of enriched uranium that remained following the June 2025 war.

Inside Iran: Last night IDF Spokesperson Brig. Gen. Defrin updated the public about Israeli achievements since the beginning of the war:

• “We attacked, destroyed and decommissioned some 300 Iranian defence systems and ballistic missiles. We also struck targets from the Iranian nuclear programme. In addition, we struck targets in the industry of terrorism and strategic arms-production facilities. At the same time, we eliminated on the basis of intelligence and with precise execution many high-ranking commanders in the regime. We have struck the regime powerfully and we have no intention of stopping for a moment.”
• White House Press Secretary Leavitt described, Operation Epic Fury as “a resounding success” adding that American forces have struck “more than 2,000 targets, destroying hundreds and hundreds of ballistic missiles, launchers and drones.” According to Leavitt, the US expects to have “complete and total dominance over Iranian airspace in the coming hours.”
• The war has now passed the first 100 hours and its first stage has been completed. The first stage included:
  • The initial tactical surprise that led to the elimination of 40 senior regime officials (in under a minute) in Tehran, including the most important one of all, Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.
  • Following this, the non-stop bombing of aerial defence targets, surface-to-surface missiles, radar installations and detection systems.
  • Within 48 hours Israel had achieve aerial superiority in Western Iran and over the skies over Tehran, and now they (along with the US) are close to aerial supremacy over the entire country.
  • The next stage was the methodical hunting of remaining missile launchers, both hidden and mobile.
  • Over the past 48 hours, Israel and the US have targeted the Iranians regime’s command and control centres, with the goal of disrupting Iran’s ability to control the fighting.
• The IDF were particularly proud to announce yesterday the downing of an Iranian aircraft. This was the first time that an F-35 jet had downed an enemy fighter jet anywhere in the world. It was also the first time in 40 years that the Israeli Air Force had done so.
• Commentators have noted that the dispatching of antiquated aircraft was a further sign of Iranian desperation and a final attempt to defend its airspace.
• Israel can now proceed to the second stage of the war: the systematic destruction of the Iranian regime’s military capabilities. This will include thousands of targets.
• Meanwhile according to the division of labour, the US are expected to complete the destruction of the Iranian navy within the next few days.
• US media has reported thousands of Kurdish fighters from Iraq have launched a ground offensive last night on Iranian soil. The Economist reported that thousands of Kurdish fighters have been armed and trained by the CIA in recent months, and that most of the Iranian Kurds are waiting in Iranian territory for orders.

Israel’s home front: Iran fired several missiles at Israel, yesterday, last night, and again early this morning. Sirens sounded in central Israel and in the Jerusalem area. All of the missiles were intercepted. No casualties or damage was caused.

• In northern Israel there were numerous sirens, mostly as a result of Hezbollah drones from Lebanon.
• The overall assessment is the Iran’s capabilities are gradually being degraded. According to US Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Dan Caine there has been an 86 percent reduction in firing.
• Were it not for Hezbollah’s rocket fire, the current situation would be even more stable.Israeli intelligence has assessed that the Hezbollah leadership came under heavy pressure from Iran to join the attacks on Israel. Wednesday saw instances of simultaneous attacks from Iran and Hezbollah, suggesting they are in coordination, but these attacks were on a much smaller scale than what Israel had prepared for.  
• As a result of the reduced attacks, Ben Gurion Airport has been reopened after five days in which it was shut down. A first flight from Athens landed at the airport earlier this morning. It is estimated that about 100,000 Israelis are stranded overseas and are waiting for an opportunity to return home. Around 10,000 Israelis are expected to arrive at the airport every day moving forward.
• Also as a result of the reduction in incoming missiles the Home Front Command has revised its public guidelines. As of this morning, the public will be allowed to go to all places of work that have bomb shelters. Schools will remain closed for the time being. Gatherings of up to 50 people are now allowed under the revised guidelines, provided the people in attendance have access to adequate shelter.
• Israel remains on alert for the possibility of the Houthis to also join the war.

Lebanon: Hezbollah has been trying to challenge IDF troops along the line of contact, notably attacking troops with ant-tank missiles.

• Israel sees these attacks as a justification for moving ground troops into the border area, so that Hezbollah ground fire is directed at the soldiers and not civilian areas in northern Israel.
• As a point of principle Israel has not called for the evacuation of any Israeli northern communities (unlike October 2023).
• Whereas the IDF has called for a large temporary evacuation of Lebanese civilians to move north of the Litani river, as they will continue to target what remains of Hezbollah military infrastructure in southern Lebanon.              
• Throughout Wednesday the IDF also conducted a wave of strikes in Beirut targeting Hezbollah infrastructure. Targets included an underground weapon storage facility and additional command centres.
• Israel remains vigilant to the possibility that elite Hezbollah Radwan troops will attempt to infiltrate into northern Israel.