Hezbollah and Lebanon 6

Updated December 23, 2025

Concern over missile production as Iran conducts tests

What’s happened: A large military exercise in Iran over recent days has heightened alert levels in the region and brought to the fore discussions in Israel, US, and elsewhere regarding the possible resumption of hostilities following the last June’s Twelve Day War.

Iranian state media reported missile tests in several regions of the country, including Khoramabad, Mahabad, Isfahan, Mashhad, and Tehran. Israeli intelligence assessments were that, although war was unlikely, Iran could use a broad missile test such as the one it carried out this week as a cover for launching a surprise attack on Israel. These concerns were conveyed by Israeli officials to their US counterparts, including by IDF Chief of Staff Zamir to Admiral Brad Cooper, the head of CENTCOM, in a call on Saturday.
The Iranian Foreign Ministry characterised the Iranian missile programme as purely defensive and non-negotiable. “Iran’s missile programme has been developed solely for the defence of the country and is fundamentally not a matter for negotiation,” the ministry’s spokesman, Esmaeil Baghaei, told reporters. “The media hype is also part of a hybrid war that the Zionist regime, with the help of the United States and affiliated media networks, has long designed and pursued against the Islamic Republic of Iran,” he added.
In the days leading up to the missile tests, multiple western intelligence agencies reported “suspicious movements” of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards, heightening concern that war might break out, either by design or by miscalculation by one of the sides. These movements were connected not just to the missile test, but also to drone activity and air defence drills.
Prime Minister Netanyahu referred to the Iranian threat yesterday in remarks made after meeting the leaders of Cyprus and Greece, “We know that Iran has recently been conducting exercises. We have been following this, and we have been maintaining the necessary readiness. I want to make it clear to Iran: any action against Israel will be answered with very harsh retaliation.”
The consensus among observers is that Iran is actively seeking to restore and augment missile capabilities that were lost in the Twelve Day War in preparation for a future confrontation with Israel. US officials believe that, left unchecked, Iran could produce up to 3000 ballistic missiles per year.
The IDF has revealed that one of three Hezbollah operatives who were eliminated yesterday in southern Lebanon was serving simultaneously in the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF). The Israeli Air Force struck a vehicle in the Sidon area, killing the three men that were, “engaged in efforts to repair terrorist infrastructure.” The IDF revealed that one of the Hezbollah terrorists had a dual role, serving simultaneously in a LAF intelligence unit. This disclosure comes amid numerous complaints that the LAF is not doing enough to enforce the ceasefire mechanism and some of its personnel are affiliated with Hezbollah.

Context: The Iranian threat to Israel over the years leading up to the October 7 War and since has been understood in Israel as ranging over three categories: the nuclear programme, proxies, and missiles.

Current Israeli assessments are that Iran suffered major setbacks on all three, and that it has struggled to restore its capacities on the first two. On missiles, however, the picture is more daunting. Only 36 Iranian ballistic missiles made impact in Israel during the Twelve Day War, but these killed 32 Israelis and caused extensive property damage. Moreover, the threat of missiles during those days shut the Israeli economy down completely.
Besides ramping up missile production, the Iranians are also fortifying and modernising launch sites. They retain up to 75% of the mobile launchers they had at the beginning of the war, and are manufacturing new ones. And as for fixed sites, Iran is reportedly working to build hardened silos that are more resistant to Israeli and US attacks.
All this is happening on the backdrop of a severe domestic crisis in Iran. Tehran, the capital city and home to ten million people, is unable to supply its population with water. Local reservoirs operate at only ten percent capacity. Electricity throughout the country is limited to a few hours a day, and petrol is severely rationed. The Iranian rial is trading at historic lows, and emigration of educated Iranians continues despite the governments efforts to stop it.
The regime’s censorship and restrictions of internet access have not succeeded in dampening public dissent. Iran’s second-largest city, Mashad, was the scene of wide scale protests against the regime. Israeli officials are concerned that the Iranian leadership may see a new war with Israel as a way of distracting the public and shoring up support.
In addition to the domestic political crisis in Iran, the renewed Iranian armament project takes place in an evolving geostrategic environment. Western countries have long complained about Iranian-Russian cooperation on drone production, particularly as it impacts the war in Ukraine.
China is widely believed to be helping Iran on ballistic missile production, both in supplying raw materials and in providing technology transfers. Turkey’s role is murkier. Iranian proxies planning terror attacks on Israeli targets were believed to be operating in Turkey. Attacks on Israeli targets in Latin America were recently foiled by local police and intelligence forces. These are believed to have been planned by Hamas and Hezbollah command centres located in Turkey.

Looking ahead: Prime Minister Netanyahu is due to meet President Trump in Florida on December 29. He is expected to present the President with an Israeli dossier on Iran’s efforts to restore its ballistic missile arsenal as well as renew its nuclear programme and fund its network of terrorist proxies, including Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis.

The two leaders are also expected to discuss the further implementation of ceasefire agreements in both Lebanon and Gaza, with the US side expected to exert pressure on Israel to move forward on promised territorial withdrawals in spite of the fact that other commitments — return of the last deceased hostage in Gaza and disarmament in both Gaza and Lebanon — have not yet been achieved.
Gaps exist as well between the Israeli and American positions regarding both Syria and Turkey, and these are expected to be discussed and possibly resolved during the leaders’ meeting.

December 16, 2025

Netanyahu meets US envoy as tensions rise in Gaza and Lebanon

What’s happened: Over the weekend, Israel carried out an air strike that eliminated Raed Saad, the deputy commander of Hamas’ military wing and one of the architects of the October 7 attacks.

In a joint statement, Prime Minister Netanyahu and Defence Minister Katz linked the strike to the detonation of a Hamas explosive device that had wounded Israeli soldiers earlier in the day on the ‘Israeli side’ of the Yellow Line in Gaza.
They described Saad as “one of the architects of the October 7 massacre” who in “recent days had been engaged in rehabilitating the terrorist organisation and in planning and carrying out attacks against Israel and rebuilding an attack force, in blatant violation of the ceasefire rules and Hamas’s commitments to adhere to President Trump’s plan. Instead of promoting demilitarisation, he was engaged in rearming for acts of terrorism.”
Another Israeli official described Saad as an arch-terrorist who worked day in and day out to violate the agreement and renew the fighting, and stressed that the strike was carried out “in response to these violations and was intended to ensure the continuation of the ceasefire.”
Also over the weekend, the IDF called off a strike on a Hezbollah armaments warehouse in the village of Yanouh in southern Lebanon at the last minute. Acting on Israeli intelligence, Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) had approached the spot to enforce the ceasefire agreement but disturbances broke out with residents which caused the LAF to withdraw.
The IDF Spokesperson’s Unit Arab media branch then issued evacuation orders for the area, after which the LAF asked for permission to return to the site in order to act.
A defence official said that Israel had received evidence of coordination between the LAF and Hezbollah. “Despite this, we gave the LAF an opportunity to address this violation. We conveyed a message to Lebanon this evening through the Americans: Cooperation between Hezbollah and Lebanon is unacceptable.”
Yesterday, Prime Minister Netanyahu met US Ambassador to Turkey and special envoy to Syria Tom Barrack. Sources said the sides arrived at mutual understandings on both Israel’s freedom of operation in Syria to neutralise emerging threats as well as the advancement of US-mediated talks with Syria aimed at forging a new security arrangement. Barrack posted on X that they had had “constructive dialogue working towards regional peace and stability.”
In the past, Barrack had drawn ire from officials for his comments about Israel not being a democracy as well as his support for the inclusion of Turkish troops in a future international force in Gaza, a position Israel is staunchly opposed to.
Searches continue for the body of Ran Gvili, the last Israeli hostage remaining in Gaza. Israeli officials claim Palestinian Islamic Jihad holds more information about his location.

Context: While Israeli officials framed the strike on Saad as an effort to strengthen the ceasefire, and while he was undoubtedly seeking to strengthen and rehabilitate Hamas, it also ties in with Israel’s strategy of closing accounts with those responsible for the Hamas attacks on October 7.

Reports from Washington suggest the administration is unhappy with the strike. Yesterday President Trump said that Washington was “looking into” whether Israel had violated the Gaza ceasefire, while a report in Axios said US officials are frustrated with Israeli actions in Gaza since the ceasefire and Trump recently told Netanyahu that he needs to be a “better partner” on Gaza.
While Phase One calls for all the Israeli hostages to be returned, Trump is eager that Phase Two in Gaza should begin in early 2026. That phase envisions Hamas disarming and Israel withdrawing as a multinational ‘International Stabilisation Force’ (ISF) deploys across the Strip at the same time that a Palestinian technocratic body begins managing Gaza’s day-to-day affairs.
Trump yesterday told reporters who asked about the ISF that “in a form, its already running, but it’ll get stronger and stronger, and more and more countries are coming into it. They’re already in, but they’ll send any number of troops that I ask them to send.” However major questions remain as to the composition of the ISF, its mandate, and its capacity to disarm Hamas, which is thought to have approximately 10,000-20,000 fighters in Gaza.
In Lebanon, Israel is sceptical that the LAF will be able to disarm Hezbollah, with defence officials believing that more IDF strikes in Lebanon may be inevitable. Hezbollah has violated the ceasefire agreement more than 1,900 times since it first went into effect more than a year ago. In this period, the IDF has attached and enforced roughly 1,100 violations with the LAF enforcing close to 600 violations that it was asked to deal with.
In light of the continued challenges from Hezbollah, the security cabinet met last week to discuss IDF plans for a large-scale offensive against Hezbollah targets in Lebanon if efforts fail to disarm Hezbollah by the end of 2025. Air force combat jets have recently carried out several drills over Israel and over the Mediterranean Sea.

Looking ahead: A conference is taking place in Doha today which is organised by the US Central Command (CENTCOM) to discuss the ISF.

Representatives from more than 45 countries have been invited to participate although Turkey has been excluded, likely due to Israeli opposition.

December 4, 2025

Deceased Thai hostage returned

What’s happened: Israel’s Institute for Forensic Medicine positively identified the remains handed over by Hamas yesterday as belonging to Thai national Sudthisak Rinthalak.

On October 7, 2023, Rinthalak, then 42 years old, was murdered in the orchards of Kibbutz Beeri. His body was abducted by Palestinian Islamic Jihad and held in Gaza for two years.
Sudthisak Rinthalak was from the northern Thailand and had been working in Israel since 2017.
On October 7, a total of 39 Thai nationals were murdered and 31 were taken captive.
The only deceased hostage being still held in Gaza is Ran Givili, an Israeli policeman, who reportedly eliminated 14 terrorists before he was killed and his body taken to Gaza
A major firefight erupted yesterday in Rafah, southern Gaza, between IDF soldiers and Hamas militants. Two Hamas fighters emerged from a tunnel shaft and launched a rocked propelled grenade at an IDF armoured personnel carrier. Four soldiers were wounded, of whom one is listed in a serious condition. Soldiers returned fire and eliminated one of the Hamas man.
Following the incident, which Israeli officials characterised as a “grave violation of the ceasefire,” the IDF struck Hamas targets in al-Mawasi, killing six. Eyal Zamir, IDF Chief of Staff, said yesterday that “it is unacceptable for terrorists to emerge from shafts and tunnels in which they have been trapped and, while fleeing to hiding places, to carry out attacks against IDF soldiers in the area.”
Direct talks between civilian officials from Israel and Lebanon were held yesterday in Naqoura, on the Lebanese side of the Israel-Lebanon border under the auspices of US envoy Morgan Ortagus.

Context: As ever, the Israeli policy for both Gaza and Lebanon, is guided by the US who are keen to see progress towards peace and stability on both fronts.

In Gaza, yesterday’s the decision to reopen the Rafah crossing is being tied to the Netanyahu-Trump call from earlier this week.
There are conflicting reports about the operation of the crossing, with Israel insisting that traffic for now will only be of Gazans leaving into Egypt and not the other way around, while the Egyptians would like the crossing to operate only if it is two-way. Following the latest violation of the ceasefire, there have been calls inside Israel to delay the opening.
In Lebanon, the US-led talks which took place yesterday involved a host of civilian issues beyond the usual remit that is normally insisted upon by the Lebanese side. Israel was represented at Naquora by Uri Resnick, a senior official in the National Security Council, and Lebanon by Simon Karam, a Maronite Christian who previously served as Lebanon’s ambassador to the UN. Also attending the meeting were representatives of the IDF, Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF), and the UN.
This was the first direct encounter of civilian officials from Israel and Lebanon since the Madrid Peace Conference in 1991.
This development, welcomed on the Israeli side, evidences the success of the US policy in Lebanon and the new pragmatic approach of the Lebanese government. It also shows the weakening grip of Hezbollah and its ability to impose its will over the Lebanese government.
Israel is now hopeful that on one hand it can continue to target Hezbollah, according to the provisions of the ceasefire agreement, whilst maintaining civilian dialogue with Lebanese government.
The talks focused on not just on the implementation of the 2024 ceasefire agreement, but ranged over issues including the maritime border, gas exploration, the return of residents to border communities, and even possible cooperation in agriculture. Looming behind the entire process is the US demand for the disarmament of Hezbollah to be completed by December 31.

Looking ahead: According to the provisions of the ceasefire agreement, Hamas should have released all the hostages within the first 72 hours. Ran Gvili remains the last deceased hostage, now held for over 790 days in Hamas’s captivity.

There’s hope that the meeting in Naquora will be a springboard for continued Israeli-Lebanese dialogue in spite of the continued threat post by Hezbollah.
Prime Minister Netanyahu announced this morning that the next head of Mossad will be Maj Gen Roman Gofman, currently the Prime Minister’s Military Secretary.

December 3, 2025

Rafah border crossing to reopen

What’s happening: Despite the ongoing failure of Hamas to release the remains of all hostages, Israel announced today that it will allow the reopening of the Rafah crossing for Palestinians leaving Gaza into Egypt.

The crossing will operate under the coordination of Israel, Egypt, and a small contingent of officials from the European Union.
According to Israeli media there are suggestions that the Israeli decision to open the crossing even before the last hostages are recovered came as a result of a request from President Trump in phone call with Prime Minister Netanyahu on Monday.
The human remains transferred to Israeli by Hamas on Tuesday are not those of deceased hostages, according to the Israeli National Institute of Forensic Medicine, which examined the remains.
Today, Palestinian Islamic Jihad said that it is working with the Red Cross to locate the remains of one deceased hostage whom it had abducted.
The bodies of two hostages taken in the October 7 attack, one Israeli, Ran Gvili, and one Thai citizen, Sudthisak Rinthalak, have yet to be handed over.
This morning Palestinian sources are claiming that the body of a deceased hostage has been found in northern Gaza, but there has not yet been a formal statement.
Prime Minister Netanyahu met yesterday with Trump’s Deputy Special Envoy to the Middle East Morgan Ortagus. Israeli officials reportedly shared with Ortagus intelligence showing both that Hezbollah are rearming and that the Lebanese Armed Forces were either unwilling or unable to do much about it.

Context: The latest phone call between Netanyahu and Trump once more highlighted the president’s direct engagement in the Middle East and across the various fronts including Gaza, Lebanon, Syria and Iran.

Not only is Trump’s influence seen in Israel’s decision to open the Rafah crossing, but also in the de-escalation in Syria, following the Beit Jinn incident late last week in which six Israeli soldiers were wounded and 13 Syrians were killed.
It has since been reported that some of the armed men weren’t just militants, but rather part of the new regime’s security forces. The US administration is keen to reach understandings with Syria and Israel on a number of issues before the expected Netanyahu-Trump meeting. These include restrictions on IDF operations in areas in which al-Sharaa’s troops operate, cooperation in dealing with Sunni terrorist organisations, and guaranteeing the wellbeing of the Druze population in the As-Suwayda enclave.
On Lebanon, tensions are ratcheting up as the sides approach the unofficial US deadline of December 31 for the disarmament of Hezbollah. Foreign Minister Gidon Saar, who also met yesterday with US Envoy Ortagus, told reporters, “The terrorist organisation is rearming at a far quicker pace that it is being disarmed. The responsibility resides with the Lebanese government. There have also been money transfers from Iran to Hezbollah via Turkey. That needs to be curtailed.”
In a rare positive diplomatic development Lebanon has agreed to send a civilian government representative to the ceasefire monitoring committee meeting with Israel. Simon Karam, their former Ambassador to the US will head Lebanon’s delegation to review the ceasefire mechanism. Until now Lebanon has always sent military representatives so as not to legitimise engagement with the State of Israel. Israel’s Prime Minister’s office will also send a representative.
However, with the Pope’s visit in Lebanon now over, the perceived immunity from Israeli strikes has been lifted. Israel has reportedly conveyed to the Lebanese government that it is “very likely to begin to take harsher measures” against Hezbollah if the disarmament conditions of the November 2024 ceasefire are not fully implemented.
US diplomacy is making its presence felt here too. The US will not provide aid to Lebanon unless it fulfils its commitments on disarming Hezbollah. Where American statements regarding Israel and Syria on the one hand and Israel and Gaza on the other have largely pushed in a de-escalatory direction, this has not been the case regarding Israel and Lebanon.
The UN General Assembly approved by a majority of 123 votes a resolution calling on Israel to withdraw from the Golan Heights. 7 countries voted against and 41 abstained, including the UK.
The resolution is presented to the General Assembly every year, at the initiative of Syria and receives an automatic majority. The resolution calls for Israel to withdraw to the June 4, 1967 lines.
In Gaza, Israel is concerned that Iran has been encouraging Hamas to refuse any kind of disarmament. In parallel, the US is seeking to begin reconstruction in Gaza even without disarmament, but focused only on the area under Israel’s control. This measure is strongly opposed by Egypt.

Looking ahead: Ortgaus’ next stop after Israel will be Lebanon, where she is expected to take part in the Mechanism meeting. She is expected to demand strict enforcement of the disarmament clauses, including a measure the Lebanese Armed Forces have refused thus far to implement: searches in private homes where Hezbollah caches are stored.

The latest reports suggest that Netanyahu and Trump will meet on December 28 in Mar-a-Lago, and not the White House. Netanyahu is expected to fly directly to Florida, and to return to Israel within 48 hours, without a stop in Washington.

November 25, 2025

Palestinian Islamic Jihad claim to have found another deceased hostage

Hostage body: Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) has claimed that it has located the body of one of the remaining hostages following a search in central Gaza.

So far there has been no announcement of when the body will be handed over to Israel.
The discovery was made following five days of searches by PIJ operatives alongside representatives from Egypt and the Red Cross in the Nuseirat area in the centre of the Strip.
The last hostage returned was the body of Meny Goddard two weeks ago.
Three deceased hostages remain in Gaza. These include two Israeli citizens, Ran Gvili and Dror Or, as well as one Thai citizen Sudthisak Rinthalak.
- Ran Gvili (24) was an Israeli Border Policeman who reportedly eliminated 14 terrorists before he was killed and his body taken to Gaza (the IDF declared his death in January 2024).
- Dror Or (49) and his wife, Yonat, were murdered from their home in Beeri. His body taken to Gaza, along with their two children, Noam and Alma, who were released in the November 2023 deal.
- Sudthisak Rienthalak (43) was a Thai agricultural worker, who was kidnapped while working in the orchards of Kibbutz Beeri. It is noteworthy that the Hamas attack on October 7 attack did not only target Israeli Jews, but also Muslims and Christians from around the world who happened to be in southern Israel on that fateful morning.
Palestinian Islamic Jihad is the second-largest Palestinian terrorist group, responsible for numerous atrocities and the murder of Israeli hostages. They are closely aligned with, and backed by, Iran.
Prime Minister Netanyahu condemned the delays in handing over the deceased hostages: “In light of the Islamic Jihad’s announcement regarding the location of findings related to a deceased hostage, Israel views with severity the delay in their immediate transfer into its hands. This constitutes a further violation of the agreement. Israel demands the immediate return of the three deceased hostages still being held in the Gaza Strip.”

Ongoing IDF operations: The IDF continues to operate in the designated Green Zone, in the Israeli controlled side of the Yellow Line.

In the Rafah area in the south troops continue to dismantle the remaining terror tunnels in the area. According to the IDF “Over the weekend, 17 terrorists emerged from an underground tunnel route in the area. Following significant combat…11 of the terrorists inside the route were eliminated.” A further six were arrested and taken for questioning.
The IDF Spokesperson’s Unit confirmed, “As part of the activity over the past week, hundreds of meters of underground tunnel routes were dismantled, and more than 60 targets were struck, including approximately 15 tunnel shafts and around 40 structures used by the terrorist organisations in the Gaza Strip. Additionally, a Hamas flag, military gear, and weapons were located in the Rafah area along the yellow line, including: firearms, rifles, explosive devices, magazines, and other weapons.”
In a separate incident on Monday, several terrorists were identified crossing the yellow line and approaching IDF troops in the northern Gaza Strip, which according to the IDF posed, “an immediate threat,” two terrorists were eliminated.
These type of engagements have reoccurred several times in the last month. According to the terms of the ceasefire agreement, they constitute breaches by Hamas, and Israel has freedom of action to respond and defend their forces.
In the West Bank, counter terror commandos eliminated a Palestinian who had been on the run for the last 18 months, after killing two IDF soldiers in a car ramming attack outside Nablus in May 2024. Following the attack he had turned himself in to the Palestinian police, but they released him after he claimed the incident was a traffic accident rather than a nationalistically motivated attack. Since then, he had been considered a wanted terrorist.

Advancing towards the ‘Day After’: For Israel, the return of the remaining three hostages – as agreed upon in the Trump Plan – remains the first condition that needs to be met. After that the disarming of Hamas and the decommissioning of their weapons remain the priority.

Israel is able to do this in the areas under its control – those that are closest to the border and the civilian communities, (although the work is painstakingly difficult and slow).
The planning and coordination for the International Stabilisation Force (ISF) continues to be led by the US in the CMCC (Civil Military Coordination Center) based in Kiryat Gat, and includes representatives from 21 countries, although not Turkey, Qatar or the Palestinian Authority.
Despite the received UN mandate last week, there remain many unanswered questions for the ISF. These include: what weapons will they have? What will be their rules of engagement? How will they be coordinated with the IDF? How are they expected to locate and destroy tunnels, confiscating weapons – by consent or by force? There is scepticism if this force will even be formed and deployed. So far there have been no countries willing to send troops for this mission.
At this point the IDF sees the advantage in being able to share monitoring with the international representatives at the CMCC. For example they share how Hamas commandeers the majority of the 600+ aid trucks that enter Gaza every day. Similarly the IDF are sharing their intelligence on Hamas efforts to reassert control and reorganise their military structure.
Earlier this week, Palestinian Authority deputy chairman Hussein al-Sheikh met with former Prime Minister Tony Blair in Ramallah. According to Sheikh’s post on X, the pair discussed issues related to the “day after” the war in Gaza, as well as issues related to the West Bank and Palestinian statehood.
According to COGAT, Israel assisted close to 300 Gazans in need of medical treatment this week, enabling them and their escorts to leave Gaza overland into Jordan on their way to unspecified third countries.

Designating Muslim Brotherhood: President Trump announced that he has commissioned a report to ascertain if “certain chapters” of the Muslim Brotherhood can be designated Foreign Terrorist Organisations (FTOs) and Specially Designated Global Terrorists (SDGTs).

The US will now begin the process of labelling Muslim Brotherhood chapters as terrorist organisations which would bring sanctions against the movements.
Trump signed an executive order directing Secretary of State Rubio and Treasury Secretary Bessent to submit a report within 45 days on whether to designate any Muslim Brotherhood chapters, such as those in Lebanon, Egypt, and Jordan. The order notably omitted to mention Turkey or Qatar.
Prime Minister Netanyahu commended President Trump, “on his decision to outlaw and designate the ‘Muslim Brotherhood’ organisation as a terrorist organisation.” Netanyahu added that the Muslim Brotherhood “endangers stability throughout the Middle East and also beyond the Middle East.
In the UK, Reform announced at their conference last month that, if they form the next government, they would proscribe the Muslim Brotherhood.

November 24, 2025

Israel targets Hezbollah Chief of Staff in Beirut

What’s happened: Lebanese sources reported an explosion in the Hezbollah dominated Dahiya neighbourhood in southern Beirut, in what transpired to be a precision targeted strike on the fourth floor of a building. According to reports five people were killed, and 25 injured.

Prime Minister Netanyahu confirmed Sunday night, that the IDF eliminated Ali Tabatabai, Hezbollah’s Chief of Staff. He described Tabatabai as a “mass murderer” whose “hands are soaked in the blood of many Israelis and Americans, and it is not for nothing that the US put a bounty of five million dollars on his head.”
IDF Chief of Staff Zamir said the operation was “designed to prevent Hezbollah from strengthening and to target precisely those who seek to harm the State of Israel. The IDF remains committed to the understandings agreed upon between Israel and Lebanon, but we shall not allow the terrorist organisation to grow stronger and rearm.”
Earlier in the weekend the Israeli Air Force carried out a wave of airstrikes against Hezbollah targets across southern Lebanon, killing two Hezbollah operatives.

Context: This is the latest and most significant example of Israel’s new security posture post October 7. This approach rejects containment in favour of acting when it assesses a threat is developing.

Israeli officials have said Tabatabai was specifically targeted as he was working to rebuild and expand Hezbollah’s military and terrorist capabilities.
His elimination represents the most significant strike in Lebanon since the ceasefire came into effect a year ago, and is also aimed to disrupt their chain of command. There is added significance that the strike was carried north of the Litani River, and in Beirut itself.
Over the last year, Israel has eliminated around 340 Hezbollah terrorists operatives (around half of whom were commanders), who have been involved in weapons smuggling, rebuilding infrastructure, training and recruitment, and even in the manufacture of precision rockets and drones.
The IDF has also carried out approximately 1,200 raids in 21 villages in southern Lebanon, most of them Shiite, along length of the 120 km border in order to prevent Hezbollah from regrouping in them. The raids located and destroyed buildings or shafts designated for terrorist purposes that had not been located in Operation Northern Arrows. These raids were carried out in a range of 3-5 kilometres from the border.
As in the past, the working assumption is that strikes like these are conducted in full coordination with US CENTCOM and by extension, knowledge of the White House.
The operation is also part of the policy to increase the pressure on the Lebanese government to act more stridently to disarm the terror organisation themselves. Reports have suggested that the US is also growing increasingly frustrated with the lack of speed and progress made by the Lebanese Armed Forces. Hezbollah favours quiet in order to replenish its capabilities, and had hoped the US would restrain Israel.
The provisions of the ceasefire agreement (with its first anniversary this week) allows Israel freedom of action against Hezbollah efforts to rearm and reconstitute its fighting capacity. Israel claims Tabatabai had violated it by engaging in terrorism.
Hezbollah’s media is portraying 57 year old Ali Al-Tabatabai (also known as Sayed Abu Ali) as a veteran operative who joined Hezbollah at its inception. He took part in attacks on Israeli forces through the 1990s, and later went on to be commander of the elite Radwan Forces, who had been trained and primed to attack Israeli communities in northern Israel.
For decades he led Hezbollah fighters in attacks on US forces in Syria. The US designated him as a Specially Designated Global Terrorist (SDGT) in 2016 and offered a $5 million reward for information on him.
He was only appointed Chief of Staff recently, replacing Muhammad Haidar who was dismissed by the leadership. Haidar was in the job a few months following the elimination of Fuad Shukr in July 2024, who was the Chief of Staff and close confidant of Nasrallah.
Hezbollah’s choice of an experienced commander like Tabatabai was interpreted as a hostile move, specifically as he had been planning terrorist attacks and pushing for escalation of its actions against Israel.
To an extend the elimination of Tabatabai almost fully completes the decapitation of the “old” Hezbollah commanders and sends a message to any potential successors.
In his remarks on Sunday night, Prime Minister Netanyahu emphasised that the removal of Hezbollah is necessary, “because only in this way can a better future be made possible for every citizen in Lebanon, and only in this way can good and secure neighbourly relations be established between Israel and Lebanon.”

Looking ahead: The current working assessment is that Hezbollah is unlikely to respond at this juncture.

However, forces in the north and air defence systems are on a high state of alert. The IDF is prepared for a number of possibilities, such as rocket fire, drones, an infiltration attempt, or retaliation by the Houthis.
The growing concern is that Hezbollah is rearming faster than it is being dismantled, and Israel is preparing for a focused operation, that could last several days in order to disrupt and damage Hezbollah’s capabilities.
Israel will continue to make the case to the Lebanese government both publicly and privately that they can prevent this if they disarm Hezbollah.

November 20, 2025

IDF operations across Gaza, Lebanon and Syria

What’s happened: Hamas terrorists opened fire on an IDF position in Khan Yunis on the Israeli side of the Yellow Line.

In response, the IDF carried out a wave of strikes on Hamas positions including in Gaza City and al-Muwasi area. Israel’s Kan radio reported this morning that the commander of Hamas’ Zeitoun battalion, who also served as the organisation’s chief of naval forces, was eliminated in the IDF operation.
The IDF also carried out extensive operations in Lebanon yesterday. A weapons storage facility in southern Lebanon was destroyed by the Israeli Air Force hours after the IDF Spokesperson called on civilians to evacuate the site. Other Hezbollah targets were struck throughout the day yesterday, especially around Beit Lif, where, according to Israeli officials, Hezbollah was reestablishing terrorist infrastructure and where the Lebanese Armed Forces were refusing to operate.
Prime Minister Netanyahu toured the buffer zone in Syria held by the IDF since the fall of the Assad regime in December 2024. Speaking to Israeli soldiers, he said, “We attach immense importance to our capability here, both defensive and offensive, safeguarding our Druze allies, and especially safeguarding the State of Israel and its northern border opposite the Golan Heights. This is a mission that can develop at any moment, but we are counting on you.”

Context: IDF operations yesterday in both Gaza and Lebanon are potent reminders of how different the current ceasefires are from those which ended previous rounds of fighting — and how different Israel’s approach to forward defence is in a post-October 7 world.

The IDF’s overwhelming response to a shooting attack in which no Israelis were injured is an indication that as far as Israel is concerned the containment policies of previous ceasefires no longer holds. Not only will the IDF respond to any provocation, but Israel will prefer not to move on to the next stage of the ceasefire without all the terms of the first stage being met, namely the return of all hostages, including deceased hostages.
The bodies of three Israeli hostages are still in Gaza and have not been returned. This may yet turn into a point of contention with the Trump administration, which is likely to want to move forward even if all the terms of the first phase are not met entirely.
Israeli officials continue to brief local media that they do not believe that the Lebanese Armed Forces will successfully disarm Hezbollah. The IDF has conducted attacks on targets affiliated with both Hezbollah and Hamas in Lebanese territory. An unnamed Israeli official told Israel Hayom that “the Lebanese Armed Forces are not doing enough. The truth of the matter is that I don’t see the Lebanese Armed Forces disarming Hezbollah. Only the IDF will disarm Hezbollah.”

Looking ahead: The Supreme Court ordered the Government to produce an explanation within 45 days of why it has not yet formed a State Commission of Inquiry to investigate the Hamas attack of October 7, 2023.

This court order came in response to a petition from several Israeli civil society groups demanding such a Commission of Inquiry.
The Government has refused to approve such a commission, arguing that the role of the President of the Supreme Court in choosing the composition of the commission, as called for by the relevant Israeli laws, would bias it against the Government.
Instead, it announced earlier this week a ministerial panel — all of whose members save one were in ministerial posts on October 7 — that will organise a special investigative committee that will not be an official State Commission of Inquiry and whose membership “will reflect as broad a public consensus as possible.”
The latter commitment is widely interpreted as ensuring that any committee includes right-wing backers of the governing coalition.

November 13, 2025

Ceasefires in Gaza and Lebanon under pressure

What’s happened: At a meeting yesterday of the so-called “Mechanism,” the multilateral monitoring committee for the implementation of the November 2024 ceasefire which ended the Israel-Hezbollah war, no agreement was reached on further weapons decommissioning.

The Lebanese newspaper Al-Akhbar, generally aligned with Hezbollah, reports that the meeting was “not positive” and that the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) refused a demand to carry out inspections in private homes, where Hezbollah is believed to be storing weapons.
Reports in Palestinian media this morning indicated that the IDF carried out limited strikes at targets in Khan Yunis and Beit Lahia in the Gaza Strip. Since the ceasefire went into effect in October 10, the IDF has occasionally carried out such strikes against Hamas ceasefire violations.
At a meeting of foreign ministers in Canada, the G7 nations reiterated their “strong support” for President Trump’s Comprehensive Plan for Gaza. The statement also called on Iran to “resume full cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency, including enabling inspections of all nuclear facilities and materials.”
A spate of violence by radical West Bank settlers captured the attention of Israeli and foreign media. Settlers were filmed setting fire to a factory and olive grove, as well as attacking IDF soldiers. Secretary of State Marco Rubio was asked at the G7 meeting if the outbreak of settler violence in the West Bank could endanger the ceasefire in Gaza. “We’ll do everything we can to make sure it doesn’t happen,” he told reporters.
A new corruption scandal burst into public consciousness in Israel yesterday. A senior police official was briefly detained yesterday for interrogation under suspicions that he had intervened in a very sensitive corruption investigation in order to benefit an associate of his. A court injunction prevents the publication of the identity of the police officer in question (though his rank of Deputy Commissioner is known) or any other details regarding the investigation. Last week the Israel Police announced the completion of a two-year undercover investigation into corruption at Israel’s largest trade union. The Police force is also involved in the unfolding scandal around the former military Advocate General.
At the same time, the Israel Police and the Minister responsible for the police force, Itamar Ben-Gvir, had a public spat over Ben Gvir’s efforts to block the promotion of a high-ranking police superintendent, allegedly, as a punishment for her involvement in the investigations which led to indictments against Prime Minister Netanyahu.
Netanyahu’s ongoing trial was thrown into a turmoil yesterday by the very public intervention of President Trump, who released a letter he sent to Israeli President Isaac Herzog asking him to pardon the Prime Minister.

Context: The “Mechanism” meeting in Lebanon comes against a backdrop of major diplomatic initiatives from the United States to stabilise the post-Assad regional order. Ambassador Tom Barrack, the Trump administration official most closely associated with these efforts, issued a long statement yesterday summarising US positions and hailing some of the recent developments. “This was a week to remember,” Barrack wrote.

In the statement, he praised the Syrian President’s decision to join the US-led coalition against ISIS. “Damascus will now actively assist us in confronting and dismantling the remnants of ISIS, the IRGC, Hamas, Hezbollah, and other terrorist networks, and will stand as a committed partner in the global effort to secure peace.”
Called on Congress to repeal the Caesar Act, the 2019 law that placed severe sanctions on Syria. Last week, the administration announced a suspension of some of the Act’s provisions.
Referenced efforts at “redefining Turkish-Syrian-Israeli relations and advancing the alignment that underpins the Israel-Hamas ceasefire, as well as various Lebanese border issues.”
Praised the roles of Qatar and Saudi Arabia, but was particularly effusive in his praise of Turkey.
Described President’s Trump’s regional strategy as “security first, prosperity next.”
The violence in the West Bank was criticised by both President Herzog and Major General Bluth, who currently heads the Central Command that covers the West Bank.
Herzog called the events severe, shocking and serious. “Such violence against civilians and against IDF soldiers crosses a red line, and I strongly condemn it. All state authorities must act decisively to eradicate this phenomenon and to strengthen the IDF soldiers and security forces who guard us day and night.”
Bluth criticised the “reality in which anarchist fringe youth act violently against innocent civilians and against security forces” adding that it must be “dealt with firmly” which requires “the combined efforts of all branches of the State of Israel: education, welfare, law enforcement, and disciplinary measures.” He added that the directive to IDF soldiers is clear: “do not stand idly by, and do everything in your power to prevent any act of nationalist crime.”

Looking ahead: Israel Hayom reports that both the US and Israel are making preparations for a “Plan B” for Gaza should the ceasefire plan fail and not progress to the second stage. These are different plans addressing different problems.

The American effort, led by Jared Kushner, seeks a diplomatic alternative to the implementation of the second stage of the ceasefire.
- The second stage calls for Hamas disarmament, an Israeli withdrawal, and an International Stabilisation Force (ISF). But so far Hamas has not disarmed, and no country has expressed any willingness to join an ISF that might be tasked with disarming it.
- In practice, this means that the first phase of the ceasefire, with Gaza partitioned into a zone under Israeli control and a zone under Hamas control, could last much longer than originally intended in the ceasefire agreement.
- According to the report in Israel Hayom, Kushner is keen to advance some reconstruction efforts even in a situation in which the two sides are stuck in the first phase.
On the Israeli side, the discussion of a “Plan B” is focused on military efforts.
- Chief of General Staff Eyal Zamir reportedly told the cabinet that the IDF is preparing a contingency plan if the ceasefire fails.
- Presumably this comprises both a plan of action if the first phase lasts longer than intended as well as a plan for the resumption of combat should the ceasefire fall apart entirely.

November 11, 2025

IDF intensifies strikes on Hezbollah

What’s happened: A series of IDF airstrikes in Lebanon in the past week have eliminated fifteen Hezbollah operatives.

Most of the operations were conducted last Thursday and Saturday, and struck weapons storage and production facilities operated by Hezbollah in southern Lebanon.
The IDF reported that it completed a series of strikes on Radwan Force’s infrastructure and weapon storage facilities. The IDF stressed that “the presence of terrorist infrastructure and the weapons storage facilities that were struck constituted a violation of the understandings between Israel and Lebanon, while endangering the civilians in the area.”
On Saturday, the IDF struck in the area of Chebaa, eliminating two terrorists from the ‘Lebanese Resistance Brigades’ – which operates under the direction of Hezbollah – who were involved in smuggling weapons. Also on Saturday, the IDF killed a Hezbollah operative who was attempting to rehabilitate Hezbollah military infrastructure in the area of Baraashit. The IDF also struck Hezbollah terrorist infrastructure in the Beqaa area in southern Lebanon.
On Monday, Lebanese media reported the presence of Israeli drones in Tyre and in the Dahiya district of Beirut, Hezbollah’s principal stronghold in the Lebanese capital region.
Overnight Monday, the IDF conducted a raid in border town of Houla to destroy several buildings that were being used by Hezbollah.
Meanwhile, in Gaza, the standoff over the one hundred or so Hamas fighters holed up in tunnels on the Israeli side of the Yellow Line continues. Israel has refrained from any offensive military action against the Hamas fighters in the tunnels for fear that such action would collapse the ceasefire entirely — with Israel taking the blame for the resumption of the war.
Israel has indicated that it is open to allowing the fighters safe passage across the Yellow Line, but only if they first surrender their weapons. Israel is also demanding that Hamas release the last four deceased hostages still remaining in Gaza before any advancement is made to next stages of the ceasefire.

Context: A year on from the ceasefire in Lebanon, Israel has began ramping up its operations against Hezbollah. Israel’s government has also been increasingly vocal about Hezbollah violations of its ceasefire commitments and increasingly impatient with the pace of the disarmament the Lebanese government claims to be carrying out.

Israel’s Channel 12 News reports that Israel has given Lebanon an ultimatum that it will broaden its operation unless the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) rapidly escalate their disarmament efforts, as stipulated in the ceasefire agreement.
The LAF, for its part, claims it is operating under the five-stage plan it announced two months ago to achieve a “state monopoly on weapons.” The plan calls first for a three-month operation focused on the area of Lebanon south of the Litani River (and closest to the border with Israel) to be followed up by a more comprehensive effort in the rest of the country.
According to CENTCOM, the LAF has successfully removed nearly 10,000 rockets, almost 400 missiles, and over 205,000 unexploded ordnance fragments during the past year. A report in Reuters even claims that the LAF was running low on explosives because it had used so much of its stock to destroy Hezbollah weapons.
Israeli authorities are unimpressed with the LAF’s efforts. According to Israeli sources, the LAF avoids entering villages that are Hezbollah strongholds and refrains entirely from entering private homes where Hezbollah weapons are stored. The public face of the disarmament efforts is also a cause for concern. The LAF routinely publishes pictures of weapons confiscation operations it has carried out in Palestinian refugee camps, but avoids releasing photos of the operations it claims to be conducting directly against Hezbollah.
Israel also believes that despite less financial support from Iran, Hezbollah is still in better shape than the LAF in terms of arms and equipment and that despite the decrease in volume of arms smuggling via Syria, the group has still been able to continue to smuggle small quantities of arms.
Israel is keen not to repeat the experience of previous ceasefires in Lebanon which came into effect with vague international promises regarding disarmament that were never fulfilled. Enforcing the disarmament commitments in Lebanon is also important for the precedent it sets moving forward in postwar Gaza.

Looking ahead: Lebanon is due to hold parliamentary elections in May 2026.

Lebanese political observers believe that Hezbollah calculates that if it can hold on to its weapons until the elections, it will be able to achieve a more favourable outcome for itself, and then leverage that into sabotaging whatever remains of the disarmament campaign.
Israeli analysts also believe that Hezbollah will seek to take advantage of the scheduled visit of Pope Leo XIV at the end of this month to step up smuggling operations, with the assumption that Israel will be reluctant to conduct a large air or ground campaign just before or during the pontiff’s visit.
Yediot Ahronot reports that the US is planning on building a large military base inside Israel near the Gaza border for use by the international forces that will enforce the ceasefire. Cost estimates run around $500 million, and the base is expected to hold several thousand troops. It would mark an unprecedented international military presence in Israel. Multiple media reports in Israel have noted the gradual but sustained eclipsing of Israel’s role in the CMCC, the temporary command centre established in Kiryat Gat immediately following the ceasefire.

October 28, 2025

Israel responds to ceasefire violations by Hezbollah

What’s happened: With the Gaza ceasefire holding and all the living hostages freed, the attention of the IDF has shifted north to the Lebanese border.

Over the last few days, Israel has conducted a number of operations in Lebanon to enforce the November 2024 ceasefire.
- On Monday, the IDF carried out an air strike in the al-Biyad area of southern Lebanon that killed two Hezbollah operatives involved in restoring the terror group’s infrastructure in the area.
- Last Thursday, an air strike destroyed a Hezbollah weapons depot in Nabatiyeh.
- A wave of air strikes hit a Hezbollah training camp and a precision missile production site.
- On Friday, two high profile Hezbollah commanders were killed in two separate drone strikes.
- Senior Hezbollah military commanders were eliminated in two more air strikes on Saturday, including the commander of the elite Radwan Force’s Battalion B.
- Another terror operative was eliminsated by the IDF on Sunday in Kabila in southern Lebanon in a motorcycle strike, a now familiar mode of operation in Lebanon.

Context: These operations follow an extensive division manoeuvre in the north that began on October 12 in order to counter the threat at the Israel’s northern border, where is Hezbollah systematically trying to attempting to re-establish their fighting presence within firing range of Israeli communities since the ceasefire came into effect a year ago.

IDF operations in Lebanon since then have mostly focused either on destroying terrorist infrastructure – facilities for producing rockets – or eliminations of Hezbollah commanders. Among those were Ali Hussein Al-Mousawi, who, according to the IDF, was involved in smuggling rockets into Lebanon for use by Hezbollah.

In parallel, Hezbollah continues to find itself isolated both politically and diplomatically. The Lebanese government, with US backing, continues to pursue a public line of wanting to decommission Hezbollah arms, though Israeli officials doubt very much this will be completed by the December 2025 deadline. And the loss of a state sponsor in Syria has cut off the direct land route from Lebanon to Iran.
A report in Maariv detailing Hezbollah’s new weakness and isolation references unnamed Israeli officials as concerned that the Lebanese terrorist organisation may try to retake the initiative with an attack on Har Dov (also known as Shebaa Farms) or a rocket attack on northern Israel.
On the one-year anniversary of his assumption of power, Hezbollah’s leader Naim Qassem gave an extensive interview to the terrorist group’s propaganda network al-Manar. He said, among other things, that the group has no intention of provoking a conflict with Israel right now. He claimed he could have sought refuge in Iran but preferred to stay in Lebanon. He reiterated his opposition to handing over Hezbollah weapons and also told his interviewer that he had no regrets about Hezbollah effectively joining Hamas’s war on Israel on October 8, 2023, one day after the Hamas attack on southern Israel.

Looking ahead: It has now been a week since Hamas last handed over any hostage. From Israel’s perspective, and especially with the passage of Trump’s deadline, this will constitute a severe violation of the ceasefire.

Israel is considering range of responses including expanding the territory in the Strip under Israel’s control, retaking the Netzarim Corridor and restricting movement across it, and further delaying the reopening of the Rafah Crossing with Egypt.
US envoy Mogran Ortagus arrived in Beirut for talks with Lebanese leaders to discuss the situation. She is due to meet with President Joseph Aoun, Speaker Nabih Berri and PM Nawaf Salam today.
On Wednesday, she will preside over the “Mechanism” meeting (the name given for the monitoring committee for the 2024 ceasefire).
Tom Barrack, another Trump administration envoy, is due in Lebanon in early November. He was quoted in Arabic press accounts as warning last week that Lebanon was heading to another confrontation with Israel if it did not act quickly to disarm the group in full.

Hamas and the Muslim Brotherhood

Hezbollah and Lebanon

Iran and their Proxies

Israel, the UK and the world

Israeli politics & society

Peace Partners, Normalisation and Coexistence

Syria

The West Bank and Settlements

LATEST

Israel reels from Trump’s Iran MOU

Court of Appeal upholds Palestine Action proscription

US-Iran agreement leaves key nuclear questions unresolved

US and Iran escalate exchange of strikes

Gaza talks stall over Hamas disarmament

US strikes Iran as Israel intensifies operations in Lebanon

Hezbollah and Lebanon

Key background

Concern over missile production as Iran conducts tests