Hezbollah and Lebanon 8

Updated December 12, 2024

Ceasefire takes effect in Lebanon

What happened: At 0400 this morning, 27th November, the ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon came into effect.

Last night Israel’s security cabinet voted in favour of the ceasefire agreement, 10 – 1. Only National Security Minister Ben Gvir voted against.
During the meeting, the Prime Minister’s Office released a pre-recorded speech by the prime minister highlighting the benefits of the agreement saying, “With a full understanding with the United States, we retain full military freedom of action. If Hezbollah violates the agreement and tries to rearm, we will attack. If it tries to renew its terrorist infrastructure near the border, we will attack. If it fires a rocket, if it digs a tunnel, if it brings in trucks with missiles, we will attack.”
In his speech Netanyahu highlighted three reasons for the ceasefire now:
- “To focus on the Iranian threat.”
- “To give our forces a breather and replenish stocks. And I say it openly, it is no secret that there have been big delays in weapons and munitions deliveries. These delays will be resolved soon. We will receive supplies of advanced weaponry that will keep our soldiers safe and give us more strike force to complete our mission.”
- “And the third reason for having a ceasefire is to separate the fronts and isolate Hamas. From day two of the war, Hamas was counting on Hezbollah to fight by its side. With Hezbollah out of the picture, Hamas is left on its own. We will increase our pressure on Hamas and that will help us in our sacred mission of releasing our hostages.”
Later in the evening, Prime Minister Netanyahu spoke to US President Biden and thanked him for the US involvement in achieving the ceasefire and for the understanding that Israel maintains freedom of action in enforcing it.
In the lead up to the agreement, both sides continued to attack each other yesterday. Sirens were heard all over central and northern Israel.
The last air raid siren warning about incoming rocket fire sounded at 10:30 last night when a number of rockets landed in Kiryat Shmona.
The IDF also continued its offensive strikes on Hezbollah targets throughout Lebanon including 20 sites in Beirut. 13 were in the Hezbollah dominated Dahiya neighbourhood. According to the IDF, “Among the targets struck were a Hezbollah aerial defence unit centre, an intelligence centre, command centres, weapons storage facilities, an operations room, an artillery storage facility, and terrorist infrastructure sites.”
“Seven other targets struck were components of Hezbollah’s financial system, including headquarters, storage facilities, and branches of the Al-Qard Al-Hassan Association, which are used by Hezbollah to collect and store its terrorist funds.”
According to Lebanese media the Israeli Air Force also targeted the border crossings with Syria. According to one report, all of the border crossings were knocked out of commission by those attacks.
In the first test of the ceasefire, a convoy of eight cars and a motorcycle thought to include around 12 Hezbollah fighters approached IDF troops in a Lebanese village close to the Israeli border. The IDF troops fired warning shots.

For further details of the agreement – read our briefing from Tuesday.

Context: The agreement ends 14 months of attacks that began when Hezbollah started launching rockets, missiles and drones into northern Israel on October 8^th, the day after Hamas’s attack out of Gaza.

Since then, Hezbollah has launched over 14,000 attacks against Israel. Israel’s anti-missile defence systems are thought to have achieved a success rate of interceptions of around 90 per cent.
However on the Israeli side 42 civilians and 67 soldiers were killed. Whilst in Lebanon over 3,500 Lebanese were killed, the vast majority were affiliated to Hezbollah.
Netanyahu also took the opportunity to highlight achievements across other fronts in the war:
- On Iran, “We destroyed major parts of Iran’s air defence system and missile-manufacturing capabilities, and we demolished a significant component of their nuclear programme.”
- “In Gaza, we dismantled the Hamas battalions and killed close to 20,000 terrorists. We killed Sinwar, we killed Deif, we killed senior Hamas officials and we brought 154 hostages back.”
- Relating to the West Bank, “we are taking out terrorists, we are destroying terrorist infrastructure and we are operating in all of the terror strongholds. There is no place out of our reach.”
- “In Yemen, we attacked the Houthis’ port of Hodeida forcibly, which the international coalition had not done.”
- “In Iraq, we successfully thwarted, and are still thwarting, many drone attacks, and we have many challenges ahead.”
- In Syria, we are systematically blocking attempts by Iran, Hezbollah and the Syrian army to transfer weapons to Lebanon. Assad must understand that he is playing with fire.”
The agreement between Israel and Lebanon will be accompanied by a US letter of guarantee. The US assurances include:
- Sharing sensitive intelligence regarding violations, including any infiltration by Hezbollah into the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF).
- A US commitment to cooperate with Israel to deter Iran’s destabilising activities in Lebanon, including preventing the transfer of weapons.
- The US recognises Israel’s right to respond to threats emanating from Lebanese territory in accordance with international law.
- This right expands beyond southern Lebanon. Israel reserves the right to act against the development of threats directed against it, if Lebanon is unable or unwilling to thwart such threats: including the illegal entry of weapons into Lebanon through borders and crossings.
Leader of the Opposition Lapid responding to Netanyahu’s statement, saying, “The biggest disaster in our history occurred on Netanyahu’s watch. No agreement with Hezbollah will erase the irresponsibility; no statement to the media will change history. In the meantime, the communities in the north have been devastated, the lives of the residents have been destroyed, the military has been worn down, while they are advancing draft-dodging legislation.”
There is also considerable anger from the leaders of northern Israeli communities. The Mayor of Metulla David Azulai told Army Radio this morning, “The agreement that our country reached is a disgraceful agreement. They want to annihilate us and that is precisely what is going to happen if they find the right time for them, and what happened in the south on October 7 will happen here in the north on a far more powerful scale.”

Looking ahead: The initial stage of the ceasefire is due to last for the next 60 days. In this period, the IDF will gradually redeploy to the internationally recognised border as UNIFIL and LAF will enter the areas vacated.

Netanyahu has cautioned the leaders of local communities from northern Israel that no one would be returning to their home yet. Israel will wait to see whether the other side will honour the agreement.
With this deal completed the focus will return to Gaza, and efforts to secure the release of the 101 hostages, now held for 418 days.

November 26, 2024

Ceasefire in the north believed imminent

What’s happening: The prospects for a possible ceasefire in Lebanon are gaining momentum.

A ceasefire agreement between Israel and Lebanon is expected to be formally declared today, with PM Netanyahu due to convene the security cabinet this afternoon to discuss and vote on the agreement.
The New York Times reports that Khamenei, Iran’s Supreme Leader, has said that the Islamic Republic approves the proposal.
The agreement is broadly based on UN Security Council Resolution 1701, which brought to an end the Second Lebanon War in 2006 and will reportedly include two main components:
- The gradual withdrawal of IDF forces and the deployment of the Lebanese Armed Forces with an international supervisory mechanism – headed by an American general from CENTCOM – to deal with future issues that may arise.
- A side letter from American which guarantees that Israel will retain freedom of action to respond if and when Hezbollah breaches the agreement.
Israeli officials said that no Hezbollah prisoners would be released as part of the deal and that no Israeli assurances would be given to stop assassinations of senior Hezbollah officials in the event the agreement is violated.
Israeli security cabinet ministers have expressed support for ending the war. They believe there is a need to separate between the front in Gaza and that in Lebanon, which they hope will increase international pressure on Hamas that will enable progress towards a deal in the south.
There is concern that the United Nations Security Council could pass an anti-Israel resolution before Trump takes office and Israeli political officials hope that a ceasefire in the north would reduce international pressure on Israel.
Residents and local leaders of Northern Israel are concerned that the emerging arrangement would leave northern Israel communities vulnerable to future attacks. The mayor of Hatzor Haglilit, Michael Kabesa, called the emerging deal a ‘surrender agreement’ adding that it was “a disgrace on an historic scale. This isn’t victory; this forsakes the residents of the Galilee. This is a failure to seize an historic opportunity to change reality for decades into the future. Instead of capitalising on success, as usual, they are braking in the middle. The bill is going to be paid by our children and grandchildren.”
Ben Caspit in Ma’ariv described the deal as the ‘least bad option’ that Israel has to choose from. Caspit argus that strategically the agreement is vital, adding that Israel’s achievements in the war are significant and without an agreement the situation could deteriorate. He also argues that Israel should prioritise focusing on the Iranian threat and the need to return the hostages, rather than continue fighting in Lebanon.
Opposition within the government has been raised by National Security Minister, Ben-Gvir who argues that a cease fire in Lebanon would be a missed opportunity to destroy Hezbollah completely at a time when the organisation is weak.
National Unity party leader Gantz also criticised the proposal and Hezbollah as being “half the job. The idea that we will report to the committee and only then take action is fundamentally flawed, as Hezbollah can burn our intelligence sources and move the means of warfare”
Yesterday, around 40 rockets were launched from Lebanon at Israel. Some were intercepted, while others fell in the Western Galilee. Last night Hezbollah fired around 20 rockets toward Nahariya which left two wounded, including one woman in her 70’s who was seriously injured by shrapnel.
An IDF soldier was seriously wounded in a Hezbollah drone attack on the Mount Hermon area this morning. The IDF also intercepted a drone in the Golan Heights, which was launched toward Israel from Iraq.
Yesterday, the IDF attacked around 25 command centres in Lebanon that are associated with Hezbollah’s Executive Council, the organisation’s highest governing body. The IDF also targeted 20 Hezbollah military headquarters in three waves of focused strikes in the Dahiyeh neighbourhood of Beirut and targeted the capabilities of Hezbollah’s Unit 4400, which is responsible for smuggling weapons to the organisation.

Context: The deal appears leaves Israel with several advantages.

These are as follows:
- It will mark the end of the fighting that has seen Hezbollah’s senior military leadership decimated. In additions, over 3,000 Hezbollah fighters were killed, including dozens of commanders and more were injured.
- The IDF has destroyed the enormous military infrastructure that was built directly across from the border. This also includes Hezbollah’s tunnels network that housed sophisticated weapons and was in place for an invasion of northern Israel.
- Similarly, Israel has dealt with the direct threat of anti- tank guided missiles that were aimed directly at Israeli civilian homes and vehicles.
- The IDF believes it has severely downgraded Hezbollah’s stock of missiles, rockets, drones and their launch capacity.
- The deal will allow the IDF to redeploy and rest some forces, allow reservists to return home.
- It will also allow the military to save munitions and focus on the Iranian threat and Gaza.
- The new deal removes the UN from their oversight role and instead places a US military commander at the head of the monitoring committee.
There are ongoing signs of concern too:
- The agreement leaves Hezbollah with at least some of its capacity in place, including the ability to launch missiles, rockets and drones.
- It provides Hezbollah with an opportunity to rebuild and re-arm.
- Violations, even if the IDF does act, could still lead to the renewal of rocket attacks etc.
Some on the Israeli side had hoped for a buffer zone (similar to the arrangement with Syria after the 1973 Yom Kippur War). That would prevent Lebanese civilians (and presumably Hezbollah) from returning directly to the border and once again look into the northern communities.
To counter the latter point the IDF are expected to redeploy significantly along the border to ensure Israeli civilians have security and the perception of security to allow them to return to their homes.
Israel has reiterated that the deal must guarantee future freedom of action in the case in which weapons are delivered to Hezbollah from Syria; preparations are made to launch a terror attack or fire rockets; and Hezbollah operatives move back to southern Lebanon under the cover of being civilians.
As part of Israel’s coordination with allies, IDF Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi visited the UK on Monday and met with his counterparts from the UK and NATO partners. They discussed strengthening the coalition against Iran and the developments in Gaza and Lebanon.

Looking ahead: If the security cabinet approves the agreement, it is expected that Biden and Macron will declare a 60-day ceasefire today, at which point the full details of the agreement will be published.

There is hope that the ceasefire will act as a catalyst to change internal Lebanese politics, including reducing the power of Hezbollah and limiting Iranian influence in the country.
Similarly, it is hoped the deal will renew efforts to reach a ceasefire in Gaza and see the release of hostages.

November 25, 2024

Hezbollah intensifies attacks across Israel

What happened: Hezbollah fired over 250 missiles and rockets towards northern and central Israel on Sunday, in one of its heaviest barrages.

The attacks included UAVs, rockets, and long-range missiles which caused over 400 warning sirens to sound in the Galilee, Sharon, and Dan.
Impacts caused some damage and a small number of injuries in Haifa, Kfar Blum, and as far south as Petach Tikvah (close to Tel Aviv). Ben Gurion airport also briefly suspended its operations yesterday.
Hezbollah claimed it targeted the Israeli Navy base at Ashdod and an unspecified military target in Tel Aviv using advanced missiles and drones. While this is the first time the group has said that it targeted Ashdod, the IDF said it was not aware of the attack.
Hezbollah has also shared a seemingly AI-generated photo showing damage to a highway from a rocket attack, with a caption threatening that the “fate of Tel Aviv would be the fate of Beirut.”
The IDF carried out a series of airstrikes against Hezbollah targets across Lebanon, in what it said was part of its “ongoing efforts to degrade Hezbollah’s capability to execute terrorist attacks against Israel.” Targets included weapons depots, an intelligence facility, a coast-to-sea missile unit’s facility, and Unit 4400 which is responsible for smuggling weapons from Iran through Syria into Lebanon. Many of these targets were in the Dahiya suburb of Beirut.
The body of Rabbi Zvi Kogan, a dual citizen of Israel and Moldova was recovered in the town of Al Ain on the Omani border. Rabbi Kogan was working in the UAE as an emissary of the Chabad outreach movement, best known for its adherents travelling to often remote locations and supporting Jewish life and practice in fledgling communities. Having been reported missing on Thursday, he is believed to have been abducted and murdered by a cell of Uzbek nationals who were thought to have fled to Turkey. The UAE announced it had made arrests in the case without providing details.
The Emirati Ambassador to the US, Yousef Al Otaiba, has said that his killing “was more than a crime in the UAE — it was a crime against the UAE. It was an attack on our homeland, on our values and on our vision” while the US has confirmed that it is “working in close coordination with Israeli and UAE authorities”.
The Israeli government condemned his killing as an “antisemitic act of terror” and pledged that it would use all available means to bring the killers to justice.
On Saturday, Hamas announced the death of an unnamed female Israeli hostage who was “killed in an area that is under a Zionist aggression in the northern Gaza Strip, while the danger still threatens the life of another female prisoner who was with her”. This statement was accompanied by a blurred photo of a bloody shroud and a close-up of the hostage’s tattoos. Responding, the IDF said it could neither confirm nor deny the reports but was “in contact with her family and are updating them with all the information available.”
A shooting attack took place close to the Israeli Embassy in the Jordanian capital of Amman over the weekend. Three police officers were injured before the gunman was shot and killed. Local media has described a police station as the attack’s target, and refrained from mentioning Israel in any meaningful way.

Context: Despite escalation of violence over the weekend, hope remains that a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah can be reached in the coming days.

Despite the reported mutual willingness of all parties (Israel, Lebanon, and Hezbollah) to agree on a deal brokered by US Special Envoy, Amos Hochstein, an escalation of hostilities and violence neither unexpected nor uncommon.
In the days before a ceasefire, both parties often seek to reassert themselves with shows of force, which may partially explain Hezbollah’s targeting of central Israel and Tel Aviv yesterday.
Despite the Israeli government’s apparent willingness to reach a ceasefire deal, opposition figures including Avigdor Lieberman are more strident, seeming less willing to accept a pause in hostilities as long as Hezbollah can continue firing on Israel.
Iran often seeks to hit Israeli targets abroad, and over the past five years, it has intensified its international terror activities and been responsible for dozens of attempted attacks across Europe (including in the UK), North and South America, Africa, Australia, and Asia.
Targets have included embassies and official Israeli representations, Israeli businesspeople and tourists, as well as synagogues, Chabad centres, and other Jewish community institutions. As a Chabad emissary in the UAE – which is geographically close to Iran – Kogan was likely seen as a soft target.
While the UAE has been critical of Israel’s conduct during the war in Gaza, the two countries continue to share interests regarding radical Islamism and the threat from Iran and its proxies.

Looking ahead: Israel has reportedly agreed to a Lebanon ceasefire in principle, although some issues remain outstanding. There is hope that a deal could be reached in the next few days, whist the Hezbollah attacks are expected to continue till then.

Last week, Naim Qassem, Hezbollah’s Secretary General confirmed that the group had reviewed the US proposal, submitted a response, and now viewed the ball as being in Israel’s court.
The broad contours are a reinforcement of existing UN resolutions: This includes:
- Hezbollah will withdraw north of the Litani River.
- For the first 60 days, the IDF will remain deployed in the first row of villages.
- Instead of the IDF advancing further north, the Lebanese Armed Forces will operate in the space between the first line of villages and all Hezbollah fighters will be moved north of the Litani River.
- After this is completed, the IDF will redeploy to the Blue Line (the internationally-recognised border).
- Israel reportedly wants clearer wording about negotiations on disputed border points between the two counties and is not willing to commit on this issue.
- The US will lead a new international body responsible for monitoring the agreement.
- Israel is insisting the deal will also include US (and international) backing in the form of a presidential guarantee that it retains military freedom of action if Hezbollah violate the agreement.

November 20, 2024

US optimistic for ceasefire in Lebanon

What happened: White House senior advisor Amos Hochstein has met several Lebanese officials to try and advance a ceasefire agreement.

After meeting with Shia Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, who is considered the interlocutor between the Lebanese government and Hezbollah, Hochstein said he felt there was a “real opportunity to bring this conflict to an end… It is now within our grasp.” He added that he hoped the coming days would yield a “resolute decision.”
Hochstein also met with caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati and the Commander of the Lebanese Army Joseph Aoun.
Berri said negotiations were going “good in principle” and that “only a few more technical details remain to be concluded.”
An Israeli official made clear that while Israel was preparing to implement the deal and to withdraw forces, “We will increase the firepower as long as there is no official signature on the agreement.”
Hezbollah continues to fire missiles and drones towards Israel with sirens sounding in Kiryat Shmona, Manara, and areas in the Western Galilee this morning. An IDF reservist, Omer Moshe Gaeldor (30), was killed and three others were seriously wounded in a Hezbollah drone attack in southern Lebanon.
UNIFIL said peacekeepers and facilities had been targeted in three separate incidents on Tuesday, and that four Ghanaian peacekeepers were wounded when a rocket hit their base in southern Lebanon. UNIFIL mentioned it was fired by ‘non state actors’, while the IDF explicitly named Hezbollah, saying they had fired the rockets from the areas of Maaliyeh and Deir Aames in southern Lebanon.
In response to the attack, Argentina announced it was pulling its troops from a peacekeeping force.
On Monday, the IAF struck and eliminated Hezbollah operative Ali Tawfiq Dweiq, the commander of Hezbollah’s medium-range rocket array. Dweiq commanded the medium-range rocket array since September 2024, and was responsible for the launch of over 300 projectiles toward Israel, including towards Haifa and central Israel.
The IDF has also begun conducting targeted raids against a central Hezbollah stronghold in southern Lebanon. In coordination with the IAF, the troops struck dozens of targets in the stronghold that were used to fire rockets into Israel as well as command centres, weapons storage facilities, and observation posts.
The Wall Street Journal reported that, as the IDF continues to advance in southern Lebanon, it has found large troves of Russian weapons, including some manufactured as recently as 2020. “The [Russian-made] weapons Israel is finding now are newer, more advanced, and present in larger numbers than expected by military analysts,” the report notes.

Context: In parallel to the diplomatic process both Israel and Hezbollah are looking for final military gains ahead of any ceasefire.

Although the Americans are confident that a deal can be concluded, Israel is keen for the US to add more diplomatic pressure on the Lebanese to improve the terms of the deal. With limited diplomatic leverage, Israel is using its military clout to add pressure on Hezbollah to end the fighting.
Part of this pressure includes advances to the ‘second row’ of villages in the south, as well as strikes on Hezbollah assets in Beirut and elsewhere.
Despite the US optimism, several issues remain unresolved:
- The most important issue for Israel is to retain freedom of action to thwart any attempts by Hezbollah to violate the agreement, both in terms of returning fighters in close proximity to the Israeli border and Hezbollah efforts to rearm and rebuild their military capacity. This is likely to come in the form of separate document from the US president offering those guarantees. The Lebanese say that such a letter is unnecessary.
- The extent to which Israel will be able to independently monitor Hezbollah activities through overflights and other technology.
- The augmentation and upgrading of UNIFIL. Israel is keen to see more peacekeepers from European states whilst Lebanon prefers Arab forces.
- Clarification of the division and distinction of roles for both UNIFIL and the LAF operating south of the Litani River.
- The composition of the international monitoring mechanism. Prior to the war, there was a trilateral forum consisting of the IDF, the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) and UNIFIL. The new proposal is for there to be a four way committee. This would be chaired (crucially from Israel’s perspective) by a US official (possibly CENTCOM commander), and also include France, the UN and (an as yet unnamed) Arab country. Israel was keen for the UK and Germany to play a role, but that currently seems less likely.
- Confirmation of the process for when Israel reports a violation and the protocol of the oversight committee encouraging LAF or UNIFIL to deal with the issue before the IDF would respond.
- An agreed-upon mechanism for dealing with other disputes, primarily, the ‘Blue Line’ border markings, on which Israel reached agreement with the UN in 2000, but which Hezbollah do not accept and have used as a pretext for continued hostilities.
- Whether the limits on Hezbollah’s presence can – in some places – extend to areas north of the Litani River in areas where, due to the line of the river (relative to the border), there are areas in the Upper Galilee that could still face direct threats from anti-tank missiles.
As part of the ceasefire, Israel may also be seeking some commitment from Iran to restrain their proxies from attacking Israel from Syria, Iraq and Yemen.
Once the principles of a ceasefire are agreed, some of these issues will be resolved during the initial 60 days of the ceasefire, after which the IDF will then redeploy to the Israeli border.

Looking ahead: US envoy Hochstein is expected to remain in Lebanon today and try and resolve some of the outstanding issues.

If there is sufficient progress, Hochstein is then expected to travel to Israel to update the Israeli government on the prospects and timetable for the deal.
Once a ceasefire is agreed,’the repairs and reconstruction of the northern communities can begin – before the eventual return of the residents. This will also allow Lebanese citizens to return home and similarly rebuild.
Israel will then also expedite the building of a new barrier along the border, along with a more substantial redeployment of troops.

November 19, 2024

Hezbollah continues to fire on Israel amid ceasefire talks

What’s happened: Over the last 24 hours Hezbollah has fired several barrages of rockets and missiles at targets across northern Israel, and further south, including the Tel Aviv area.

According to the IDF, five missiles were intercepted before they reached the Tel Aviv area, while one landed between Ramat Gan and Bnei Brak.
Five people were injured with one reported to be in serious condition. The IDF says that the injuries were caused by a surface to air missile interception, although the local municipality and the police claim it was the result of a direct hit.
Yesterday, a teacher and mother of four, Safaa Awad, was killed when a Hezbollah rocket struck a three-story building in the Israeli Arab town of Shfaram. Reports suggest she was killed despite being in a bomb shelter, with the rocket directly hitting one of its walls.
The Rambam Hospital in Haifa reported that 56 individuals were being treated after this attack, mostly for acute anxiety. A 41-year-old woman and 4-year-old boy are also in a serious condition.
Meanwhile the fighting continues in southern Lebanon and in Gaza, especially in the northern areas of Jabaliya and Beit Lahiya.
Despite Israel’s efforts to facilitate the entry of aid into Gaza, the UN has confirmed that 98 trucks carrying food were violently looted over the weekend. It is unclear who was responsible, with Hamas denying responsibility and blaming local gangs.

Context: As the IDF continues to degrade Hezbollah infrastructure and negotiations over a ceasefire progress, Hezbollah still maintains the capacity to carry out deadly attacks on the Israeli home front.

There have been almost 150 alerts this morning, with over 200 throughout Monday.
US Special Envoy Amos Hochstein arrived in Beirut this morning, with Biden administration officials saying they are, “making progress” toward a ceasefire agreement.
Hassan Khalil, an aide to Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, told Reuters that Lebanon had delivered its written response to the US ambassador in Lebanon. “in a positive atmosphere” adding that “all the comments that we presented affirm the precise adherence to (UN) Resolution 1701 with all its provisions.”
However, Israeli officials reportedly do not have high expectations for an imminent breakthrough. A political official told Israel Hayom that he didn’t believe an agreement was likely to be reached in the coming days, “Reaching an agreement is likely to be delayed because of Lebanon’s ambivalence.” He also emphasised that while Israel was preparing to implement the deal and to withdraw forces, “We will increase the firepower as long as there is no official signature on the agreement.”
One key issue remains gaining agreement on freedom of action for the IDF throughout Lebanon in the scenario in which Hezbollah rearms or plans carry out attacks against Israel.
101 hostages remain in captivity in Gaza for 410 days yet there appears little progress in securing their release. The Israel security cabinet once again discussed the issue but maintain their refusal to meet Hamas’s terms – to end the war and to withdraw IDF troops from Gaza.
Instead, Prime Minister Netanyahu gave his consent to Mossad Director Barnea to continue to explore limited deals, aimed at releasing a small number of hostages in return for a temporary ceasefire.
The government also revisited the idea of offering a financial incentive plus safe passage out of Gaza for anyone able to assist in releasing a hostage alive.
Whilst Qatar has stepped back on its mediation role it now falls on Israel to rely on Egyptian mediation.
It appears the Hamas external leadership has left Qatar for Turkey, although it remains unclear if this is permanent or even their final destination.
In an effort to gain clarity on this, Ronen Bar, the head of the Shin Bet, visited Turkey. He is thought to have met Ibrahim Kalin, head of Turkish intelligence.
Turkish sources have refuted claims that Hamas had relocated its political offices to Turkey and are instead only visiting.
According to US State Department Spokesman Matthew Miller, the US is demanding that Turkey extradite the senior Hamas officials and hand them over to the US to stand trial. In a briefing Miller said, “We don’t believe the leaders of a vicious terrorist organisation should be living comfortably anywhere, and that certainly includes in… a major city of one of our key allies and partners.

Looking ahead: Following Hochstein’s meeting in Beirut, Israel will await further clarifications about Lebanon’s position and Hezbollah’s consent to stop their attacks.

Meanwhile in the absence of the deal, Israel plans to attack more Hezbollah assets in Beirut and carry out more assassination operations against senior Hezbollah commanders.
Operations will also continue against Hezbollah infrastructure – particularly on their extensive tunnel network close to the Israeli border.

November 19, 2024

Hezbollah continues to fire on Israel amid ceasefire talks

What’s happened: Over the last 24 hours Hezbollah has fired several barrages of rockets and missiles at targets across northern Israel, and further south, including the Tel Aviv area.

According to the IDF, five missiles were intercepted before they reached the Tel Aviv area, while one landed between Ramat Gan and Bnei Brak.
Five people were injured with one reported to be in serious condition. The IDF says that the injuries were caused by a surface to air missile interception, although the local municipality and the police claim it was the result of a direct hit.
Yesterday, a teacher and mother of four, Safaa Awad, was killed when a Hezbollah rocket struck a three-story building in the Israeli Arab town of Shfaram. Reports suggest she was killed despite being in a bomb shelter, with the rocket directly hitting one of its walls.
The Rambam Hospital in Haifa reported that 56 individuals were being treated after this attack, mostly for acute anxiety. A 41-year-old woman and 4-year-old boy are also in a serious condition.
Meanwhile the fighting continues in southern Lebanon and in Gaza, especially in the northern areas of Jabaliya and Beit Lahiya.
Despite Israel’s efforts to facilitate the entry of aid into Gaza, the UN has confirmed that 98 trucks carrying food were violently looted over the weekend. It is unclear who was responsible, with Hamas denying responsibility and blaming local gangs.

There have been almost 150 alerts this morning, with over 200 throughout Monday.
US Special Envoy Amos Hochstein arrived in Beirut this morning, with Biden administration officials saying they are, “making progress” toward a ceasefire agreement.
Hassan Khalil, an aide to Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, told Reuters that Lebanon had delivered its written response to the US ambassador in Lebanon. “in a positive atmosphere” adding that “all the comments that we presented affirm the precise adherence to (UN) Resolution 1701 with all its provisions.”
However, Israeli officials reportedly do not have high expectations for an imminent breakthrough. A political official told Israel Hayom that he didn’t believe an agreement was likely to be reached in the coming days, “Reaching an agreement is likely to be delayed because of Lebanon’s ambivalence.” He also emphasised that while Israel was preparing to implement the deal and to withdraw forces, “We will increase the firepower as long as there is no official signature on the agreement.”
One key issue remains gaining agreement on freedom of action for the IDF throughout Lebanon in the scenario in which Hezbollah rearms or plans carry out attacks against Israel.
101 hostages remain in captivity in Gaza for 410 days yet there appears little progress in securing their release. The Israel security cabinet once again discussed the issue but maintain their refusal to meet Hamas’s terms – to end the war and to withdraw IDF troops from Gaza.
Instead, Prime Minister Netanyahu gave his consent to Mossad Director Barnea to continue to explore limited deals, aimed at releasing a small number of hostages in return for a temporary ceasefire.
The government also revisited the idea of offering a financial incentive plus safe passage out of Gaza for anyone able to assist in releasing a hostage alive.
Whilst Qatar has stepped back on its mediation role it now falls on Israel to rely on Egyptian mediation.
It appears the Hamas external leadership has left Qatar for Turkey, although it remains unclear if this is permanent or even their final destination.
In an effort to gain clarity on this, Ronen Bar, the head of the Shin Bet, visited Turkey. He is thought to have met Ibrahim Kalin, head of Turkish intelligence.
Turkish sources have refuted claims that Hamas had relocated its political offices to Turkey and are instead only visiting.
According to US State Department Spokesman Matthew Miller, the US is demanding that Turkey extradite the senior Hamas officials and hand them over to the US to stand trial. In a briefing Miller said, “We don’t believe the leaders of a vicious terrorist organisation should be living comfortably anywhere, and that certainly includes in… a major city of one of our key allies and partners.”

Looking ahead: Following Hochstein’s meeting in Beirut, Israel will await further clarifications about Lebanon’s position and Hezbollah’s consent to stop their attacks.

Meanwhile in the absence of the deal, Israel plans to attack more Hezbollah assets in Beirut and carry out more assassination operations against senior Hezbollah commanders.
Operations will also continue against Hezbollah infrastructure – particularly on their extensive tunnel network close to the Israeli border

November 18, 2024

Cautious optimism for a ceasefire in the north

What’s happening: According to the Lebanese LBCI network, Hezbollah has given a positive response to a ceasefire proposal.

The Israeli-US proposal was given to Nabih Berri, the Shiite speaker of Lebanon’s parliament who both represents the Lebanese state and serves as a liaison to Hezbollah. Berri said that negotiations were progressing.
Over the weekend, more than 200 Hezbollah targets were attacked from the air in Beirut, Nabatiya, and coastal cities in several waves of attacks.
The targets included weapons storage facilities, command centres, additional military infrastructure and several high-rise buildings.
Before the strikes, the IDF once again warned any civilians that remain in the immediate vicinity to evacuate.
Following the strikes, secondary explosions were evident, once more signalling that the sites stored explosive material.
In another attack in the Mar Elias neighbourhood of Beirut, the IDF targeted Mohmoud Madi, a high-ranking Hezbollah commander of the southern front who had fled north.
In a separate attack, the senior Hezbollah Spokesperson Mohammed Afif was also killed. According to the IDF, “Afif was a senior Hezbollah military operative, in contact with senior officials and directly involved in advancing and executing Hezbollah’s terrorist activities against Israel.”
On the ground, the IDF made advances in the Al-Khiyam area in Southern Lebanon.
IDF troops operating on the ground also located a Hezbollah training facility, which was positioned some 200 meters from a UNIFIL base.
On Saturday, a Hezbollah rocket struck a synagogue in Haifa, just one hour after the end of a prayer service. The Avot Ubanim synagogue complex suffered major damage from the strike, but no one was hurt.
Four people were lightly wounded while making their way to the shelter in Haifa and damage was reported in a Haifa neighbourhood after rocket fire targeted the area.
Yesterday afternoon, around 15 rockets were fired from Lebanon, with some intercepted and the rest falling in open areas. Since the beginning of November, over 700 launches have crossed from Lebanon into Israel.
On Friday, 21-year-old Sergeant Ori Nisanovich of the Golani Brigade was killed during an exchange of fire with a Hezbollah gunman in a building in a southern Lebanon village.
Yesterday morning, 21-year-old Sergeant First Class (res.) Idan Kenan, was killed in combat in the northern Gaza Strip most likely by sniper fire.
A drone was intercepted last night in the Eilat area from the east. It did not infiltrate Israel. One of the interceptor missiles apparently fell in Akaba, Jordan. There were no reports of injuries.
A second drone also from the east was intercepted over central Israel. Debris were scattered near the city of Yavneh.

Context: Israel continues to conduct an orderly operation against Hezbollah targets across Lebanon, including limited, localised, targeted raids based on precise intelligence in southern Lebanon.

Most of the ground operation in the south has focused on the military infrastructure embedded within Shiite villages. The IDF have deliberately avoided Christian villages that were uninvolved, however Hezbollah infrastructure had also been found on the outskirts of the Christian villages near the Israeli border, such as Ramish.
According to the IDF Northern Command out of the 200 firefights have so far broken out in the ground operation, including inside buildings with only a handful resulting in IDF casualties.
There has been no formal confirmation, but the IDF have appear to be advancing on the second row of villages, around 3-5km from the border.
The IDF appears to have had a high degree of success targeting Hezbollah’s short- and medium-range rocket launchers that have been used to target Haifa and its suburbs. At this point Hezbollah retains the capacity to fire dozens of rockets a day, but this is substantially lower that the perceived threat from months ago that envisioned over 1,000 rockets a day.
The ground operation has been underway for roughly a month and a half, in which 68 soldiers and civilians have been killed. The IDF’s assessment of Hezbollah casualties to be over 2,250 with several thousand more injured.
The ceasefire proposal is largely based on UN Security Council resolution 1701, which ended the last war between Israel and Hezbollah in 2006. It calls for Hezbollah to withdraw from southern Lebanon and says only the Lebanese military and UN peacekeepers should operate in the region.
The assumption is that Hezbollah has shown flexibility in recent weeks on several key issues, including a principal willingness to withdraw from southern Lebanon, which the terror organisation had previously strongly rejected.
The New York Times reported over the weekend that Iran had sent messages to Hezbollah saying they supported an end to war.
However, one major disagreement remains unresolved: Israel’s demand to maintain operational freedom in case the IDF detects violations of the agreement by Hezbollah.
The Lebanese government’s position is that Lebanon, Israel, and UNIFIL will implement resolution 1701 and that the US and France will oversee the ceasefire.
The Lebanese demand also includes the immediate return of displaced people to their homes after Israel’s withdrawal, as well as the reconstruction of the area without external involvement.
The mass displacement of over 1 million people in Lebanon, including Lebanese citizens, migrant workers, and Palestinian refugees, has created an internal crisis

Proposed deal: As outlined in previous BICOM briefings, there are a number of parameters being considered.

The broad contours are a reinforcement of existing UN resolutions:
- Hezbollah will withdraw north of the Litani River.
- For the first 60 days, the IDF will remain deployed in the first row of villages and continues to remove all the weapons and military infrastructure.
- Instead of the IDF advancing further north, the Lebanese Armed Forces will operate in the space between the first line of villages and destroy / remove all Hezbollah infrastructure up to the Litani River.
- After this is completed, the IDF will redeploy to the Blue Line (the internationally-recognised border).
- Israel is insisting the deal will also include US (and international) backing in the form of a presidential guarantee that it retains military freedom of action if Hezbollah violate any of the agreement.

Looking ahead: US envoy Amos Hochstein will travel to Lebanon on Tuesday as part of efforts to reach a cease-fire agreement.

If he is successful, he is expected to then travel onto Israel to close the details of the deal.
There is thought to be a 60 day transition period, which will ensure Israeli forces can redeploy out of southern Lebanon to coincide with President Trump’s inauguration

November 14, 2024

IDF extends pressure on Hezbollah

What’s happening: The IDF is ramping up military pressure on Hezbollah by targeting Hezbollah assets in Beirut, incrementally expanding ground operation in southern Lebanon and targeting the smuggling routes from Syria into Lebanon.

The expansion of the ground operation came at a high cost yesterday when six soldiers from the Golani Brigade between the ages of 20-22 were killed in a firefight in one of the newly targeted villages in the south.
On Tuesday evening, two Israelis were killed by a rocket that struck a carpentry shop in Nahariya. The victims were identified as two men in their 50s.
Yesterday, sirens were heard across central and northern Israel as a result of both rocket fire and drone infiltrations.
At the same time, Hezbollah are still able to launch dozens of rocket and drone attacks into Israel.
The Hezbollah dominated neighbourhood of Dahiya in Beirut has been targeted several times in the last couple of days. Each time the IDF first sent warnings to the residents before striking. The IDF says that the targets are predominantly weapons storage sites and missile manufacturing facilities located underneath the neighbourhood.
According to the IDF, over the past 20 years, Hezbollah has “established dozens of weapons production sites and storage facilities in the heart of the Dahiya district…. These sites, systematically concealed beneath civilian buildings, have produced and stored hundreds of missiles and rockets intended to inflict significant harm on the State of Israel.”
During these attacks, a large number of secondary explosions have occurred, revealing the presence of additional weapons and explosives.
The IDF also confirmed that it has eliminated the Hezbollah Field Commanders of Khiam, Tebnit, and Ghajar, and the anti-tank missile Commander of the Hajir area. The commander of the Khiam area was, according to the IDF, “responsible for the launches of more than 2,500 projectiles toward the areas of the Golan Heights, the Upper Galilee, the Galilee Panhandle, and toward IDF troops operating in southern Lebanon.”
Last night, the Israeli Air Force downed two drones over Syria headed for Israel from the east.
In the south, an Israel Navy missile ship downed a drone that was fired from Iraq at the southern city of Eilat.

Context: Israel is hoping the expansion of the campaign will force Hezbollah to agree to a ceasefire on Israel’s terms.

The longer the fighting continues, Hezbollah faces the prospect of being further weakened, losing more military assets. They could also face repercussions among the Shiite community as they reap the damage from hosting Hezbollah’s military infrastructure within their villages.
In a further sign of Hezbollah’s weakened position, a former ally, the Maronite Christian leader Gebran Bassil, the head of the Free Patriotic Movement, has said that Hezbollah has lost its legitimacy and blamed them for the situation inside Lebanon.
The outline of the eventual agreement is generally known; that Hezbollah will no longer be present in southern Lebanon south of the Litani River. Instead the Lebanese Armed Forces (possibly alongside augmented UNIFIL forces) will be deployed to the area. Hezbollah will no longer be able to manufacture or import weapons. Crucially for Israel the third condition they are seeking is the freedom of action to respond militarily to any Hezbollah violation in the future.
The IDF has almost completed operations within the first three kilometres closed to the Israeli border, but are still clearing the area of tunnel shafts and underground facilities. This represents the ‘first row’ of villages that topographically look down into Israeli communities.
The village where the six soldiers were killed has not been named, but is understood to be further north, part of the ‘second row’ of villages 3-6 km from the Israeli border.
The IDF now estimates that eighty per cent of Hezbollah’s rockets and missiles have been destroyed, but its remaining munitions are still large enough to continue to send millions of Israelis running to the bomb shelters on a daily basis.
Hezbollah retains the ability to fire around 200 rockets a day, and it is believed to still possess several hundred drones
Hezbollah’s drones continue to pose a threat, though the IDF is learning to cope and claims it is reaching 90 per cent success rate in interceptions.
Despite the IDF’s success in targeting most of Hezbollah’s senior commanders, their ground troops remain mostly intact and have redeployed to the ‘second row’ of villages.
The Golani Brigade is one of the main units within the IDF’s infantry division has now lost 108 soldiers since October 7th last year.
The continued fatalities among the IDF increases the public’s demand for ultra-Orthodox men to also serve and share the burden of service.

Looking ahead: Israel remains determined to continue to target Hezbollah’s military capacity until they agree to a ceasefire. New units are being called to replace those currently deployed.

US Special Envoy Amos Hochstein is expected to return to Lebanon with an Israeli-American draft proposal. The agreement includes an additional document that ensures Israel retains freedom of action to respond to any violations of a future agreement.
Without a ceasefire one option is to re-establish a buffer zone inside Lebanon to prevent infiltrations and direct fire on adjacent Israeli communities.
Israel is also still on alert for a potential Iranian response to the Israeli strikes a month ago. However following Trump’s victory the Iranians are more wary of the consequences and could be deterred for now

November 12, 2024

Rockets fired from Lebanon

Over 200 rockets were fired from Lebanon into Israel on Monday, 11th November. Three rockets directly hit suburbs in Haifa and the Haifa Bay.

The weekend had seen a relative reduction in rocket fire, but yesterday’s attacks were among the most intense so far.
While talks are underway about securing a ceasefire in the north, Defence Minister Katz said, “We will continue attacking Hezbollah with full force until we achieve the war’s objectives. Israel will not agree to any arrangement that doesn’t guarantee Israel’s right to enforce and pre-empt terror itself, achieving the war’s objective in Lebanon, disarming Hezbollah, forcing their retreat to beyond the Litani River and safely allowing the northern residents to return home.”

November 11, 2024

Fighting continues amid hopes for a ceasefire in the north

The north: Israeli officials have expressed cautious optimism that a ceasefire can soon be reached in Lebanon.

On Sunday, new Defence Minister Israel Katz highlighted Israel’s military achievements adding, “Now it is our job to continue to put pressure in order to bring about the fruits of that victory.”
Efforts to reach a diplomatic agreement are being led by Strategic Affairs Minister Dermer, who met with Russian officials last week and will meet with US officials this week.
Meanwhile, US Special Envoy Amos Hochstein exchanged draft proposals with Nabih Berri the Shiite speaker of Lebanon’s parliament.
The broad contours of the deal are a reinforcement of existing UN resolutions:
- Hezbollah will withdraw north of the Litani River.
- For the first 60 days, the IDF will remain deployed in the first row of villages and continues to remove all the weapons and military infrastructure.
- Instead of the IDF advancing further north, the Lebanese Armed Forces will operate in the space between the first line of villages and destroy / remove all Hezbollah infrastructure up to the Litani River.
- After this is completed, the IDF will redeploy to the Blue Line (the internationally-recognised border).

Israel is insisting the deal will also include US (and international) backing in the form of a presidential guarantee that it retains military freedom of action if Hezbollah violate any of the agreement
In the meantime, the IDF continues to operate close the border in southern Lebanon clearing Hezbollah’s underground military infrastructure.
According to Arab media reports the Israel Air Force also struck targets inside Syria on Sunday:
- Saudi sources reported that Salim Ayish a senior Hezbollah operative was killed in an airstrike in Al-Qusayr in Western Syria. Salim was implicated in the 2005 assassination of Lebanese PM Rafiq al-Hariri.
- According to Lebanese reports another senior Hezbollah official, responsible for the Golan, Ali Musa Dakdok, was killed in an airstrike in Damascus.
Meanwhile, rockets, missile and drones attacks on northern Israel have continued over the weekend, at a lower intensity (approximately around 50-70 launches a day) than in recent weeks.
On Sunday, three people were injured by an anti-tank missile (ATM) in Metula. The threat from ATMs that rely on direct line of fire was meant to have been removed by IDF ground operation.
This morning, a drone launched by Hezbollah in Lebanon crashed in the Western Galilee and started a fire.

Context: The cautious optimism is primarily based on Israeli achievements on the ground. If success is close to being achieved it may allow residents of northern Israel to return to their homes.

According to the latest IDF data, more than 2,550 Hezbollah terrorist have been killed so far in the war, and more than 5,000 others have been wounded.
110 Israeli soldiers and civilians have been killed by Hezbollah fire.
IDF officials believe that 80 per cent of Hezbollah’s medium range rockets (with a 40-kilometer range) have been destroyed, and they now have fewer than 1,000 left.
Hezbollah had more than 44,000 short-range rockets before the war and currently has fewer than 10,000 left.
Hezbollah also had several hundred precision-guided missiles before the war, and currently has fewer than 100 left.
Trump’s victory in the presidential elections has also helped reach a consensus that it is in the interests of both the Biden administration and Trump that the war should end before Trump is sworn into office in January.
Israel is projecting confidence that Netanyahu and Trump see eye-to-eye and both want to end the fighting on all fronts – with a decisive Israeli victory. Netanyahu said on Sunday that he has already spoken to Trump three times since the election.
Israel recognises that Russia has influence over Hezbollah, Syria and Iran, and that Russia wants a ceasefire. Israel is seeking Russia’s assurance not to allow arms to be smuggled into Lebanon from Syria so as to prevent Hezbollah’s ability to re-arm, which will be crucial to ensure long term calm.
The emerging deal is seen to have ‘wins’ for all parties:
- The US get the end the war it has sought.
- The Israeli military can withdraw and citizens can return to their homes in the north.
- Hezbollah survives without being completely destroyed.
- Iran gets to keep Hezbollah as a proxy, albeit in a substantially reduced capacity.
- In return for Russia ensuring that no more weapons are transferred from Syria into Lebanon, the Biden administration will exempt Russian companies operating in Syria from sanctions.
In the background there is concern that if a ceasefire is not reached, a new UN Security Council resolution might impose significant restrictions on Israel’s operational freedom of action.

Looking ahead: Minister Dermer has arrived in the US where he is expected to meet senior Biden officials as well as President-elect Trump.

He is expected to present Trump with the latest intelligence about the Iranian nuclear programme and explore how to advance a normalisation agreement with Saudi Arabia.
If / once a ceasefire arrangement is agreed, the timing of the 60 day transition should coincide close to Trump’s inauguration on January 20th.

Hamas and the Muslim Brotherhood