What’s happened: Over the last 24 hours Hezbollah has fired several barrages of rockets and missiles at targets across northern Israel, and further south, including the Tel Aviv area.
- According to the IDF, five missiles were intercepted before they reached the Tel Aviv area, while one landed between Ramat Gan and Bnei Brak.
- Five people were injured with one reported to be in serious condition. The IDF says that the injuries were caused by a surface to air missile interception, although the local municipality and the police claim it was the result of a direct hit.
- Yesterday, a teacher and mother of four, Safaa Awad, was killed when a Hezbollah rocket struck a three-story building in the Israeli Arab town of Shfaram. Reports suggest she was killed despite being in a bomb shelter, with the rocket directly hitting one of its walls.
- The Rambam Hospital in Haifa reported that 56 individuals were being treated after this attack, mostly for acute anxiety. A 41-year-old woman and 4-year-old boy are also in a serious condition.
- Meanwhile the fighting continues in southern Lebanon and in Gaza, especially in the northern areas of Jabaliya and Beit Lahiya.
- Despite Israel’s efforts to facilitate the entry of aid into Gaza, the UN has confirmed that 98 trucks carrying food were violently looted over the weekend. It is unclear who was responsible, with Hamas denying responsibility and blaming local gangs.
Context: As the IDF continues to degrade Hezbollah infrastructure and negotiations over a ceasefire progress, Hezbollah still maintains the capacity to carry out deadly attacks on the Israeli home front.
- There have been almost 150 alerts this morning, with over 200 throughout Monday.
- US Special Envoy Amos Hochstein arrived in Beirut this morning, with Biden administration officials saying they are, “making progress” toward a ceasefire agreement.
- Hassan Khalil, an aide to Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, told Reuters that Lebanon had delivered its written response to the US ambassador in Lebanon. “in a positive atmosphere” adding that “all the comments that we presented affirm the precise adherence to (UN) Resolution 1701 with all its provisions.”
- However, Israeli officials reportedly do not have high expectations for an imminent breakthrough. A political official told Israel Hayom that he didn’t believe an agreement was likely to be reached in the coming days, “Reaching an agreement is likely to be delayed because of Lebanon’s ambivalence.” He also emphasised that while Israel was preparing to implement the deal and to withdraw forces, “We will increase the firepower as long as there is no official signature on the agreement.”
- One key issue remains gaining agreement on freedom of action for the IDF throughout Lebanon in the scenario in which Hezbollah rearms or plans carry out attacks against Israel.
- 101 hostages remain in captivity in Gaza for 410 days yet there appears little progress in securing their release. The Israel security cabinet once again discussed the issue but maintain their refusal to meet Hamas’s terms – to end the war and to withdraw IDF troops from Gaza.
- Instead, Prime Minister Netanyahu gave his consent to Mossad Director Barnea to continue to explore limited deals, aimed at releasing a small number of hostages in return for a temporary ceasefire.
- The government also revisited the idea of offering a financial incentive plus safe passage out of Gaza for anyone able to assist in releasing a hostage alive.
- Whilst Qatar has stepped back on its mediation role it now falls on Israel to rely on Egyptian mediation.
- It appears the Hamas external leadership has left Qatar for Turkey, although it remains unclear if this is permanent or even their final destination.
- In an effort to gain clarity on this, Ronen Bar, the head of the Shin Bet, visited Turkey. He is thought to have met Ibrahim Kalin, head of Turkish intelligence.
- Turkish sources have refuted claims that Hamas had relocated its political offices to Turkey and are instead only visiting.
- According to US State Department Spokesman Matthew Miller, the US is demanding that Turkey extradite the senior Hamas officials and hand them over to the US to stand trial. In a briefing Miller said, “We don’t believe the leaders of a vicious terrorist organisation should be living comfortably anywhere, and that certainly includes in… a major city of one of our key allies and partners.”
Looking ahead: Following Hochstein’s meeting in Beirut, Israel will await further clarifications about Lebanon’s position and Hezbollah’s consent to stop their attacks.
- Meanwhile in the absence of the deal, Israel plans to attack more Hezbollah assets in Beirut and carry out more assassination operations against senior Hezbollah commanders.
- Operations will also continue against Hezbollah infrastructure – particularly on their extensive tunnel network close to the Israeli border


