Hezbollah and Lebanon

Updated March 27, 2025

US initiates Israel-Lebanon talks

12/03/2025

What’s happening: Representatives of Israel, Lebanon, US, and France met yesterday in Naqoura, just on the Lebanese side of the Israel-Lebanon border to launch a negotiated process to resolve outstanding disputes.

The meeting was aimed to ensure the war that was effectively ended by a November 2024 ceasefire cannot restart.
The initiative is led by US Deputy Middle East Envoy Morgan Ortagus, who issued a statement yesterday from the State Department describing the talks as “military to military,” presumably to ensure that no Lebanese party can be accused of “normalisation.”
Israel Prime Minister’s Office added: “In coordination with the US and as a gesture to the new President of Lebanon, Israel has agreed to release five Lebanese detainees.”

Context: The ceasefire on the Israeli-Lebanese border has been in effect since November 2024. It was brokered by the outgoing Biden administration, and its implementation followed an intense escalation in the fighting between Hezbollah and Israel.

Fighting between the two sides erupted on October 8^th 2023, when Hezbollah began launching rockets on Israeli cities and military bases in a show of solidarity with Hamas which had carried out a massacre in southern Israel the day before.
The Israeli response intensified last summer, including Israel’s beeper operation, the destruction of most of Hezbollah’s rocket arsenal, the assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, and an Israeli land invasion of southern Lebanon.
The terms of the ceasefire allowed Israel to carry out offensive military action against Hezbollah where the latter is violating the ceasefire or operating in southern Lebanon inside the areas where it committed to evacuating.
The IDF’s strikes against Hezbollah rocket launchers and weapons depots in the Bint Jbeil area this week, for example, were carried out within the terms of the ceasefire agreement. The March 4^th airstrike which killed a Hezbollah naval force commander close to the Israeli border was also in keeping with the terms of the ceasefire.
Last week, Lebanese President Joseph Aoun spoke at the Arab Summit in Cairo, where he stressed “resistance through diplomacy,” implicitly committing to keep Lebanon inside the Arab consensus against Israel while not letting foreign actors (Iran) drag Lebanon into war with Israel.
This followed his first foreign visit as President to Saudi Arabia, where he was keen to reorient Lebanese foreign policy in general to Saudi priorities, a stark contrast to its role in recent years as the front line in Iranian and Syrian regional priorities. In a much noted speech in Riyadh, Aoun alluded to the negative influence Iranian dominance has had on the Arab world: “When one occupies Beirut, destroys Damascus, threatens Amman, makes Baghdad suffer or takes Sanaa … it is impossible for anyone to claim that this serves Palestine.” He continued, still without naming Iran, “Lebanon has suffered a lot, but it has learned from its sufferings.”
Yesterday’s meeting was the latest example (the first under President Trump) of US-mediated diplomacy between Israel and Lebanon. In 2022, the US led an effort to delineate the maritime boundaries of each country’s exclusive economic zone (EEZ) for the purposes of natural gas extraction.

Looking Ahead: Following yesterday’s talks, three working groups will be established for ironing out differences on three principal issues: the border, prisoners, and IDF outposts in Lebanon.

Each group will comprise representatives from Lebanon, Israel, and the US.
- Borders: the UN confirmed in 2000 that Israel had completely withdrawn to the Blue Line. Despite this, there are 13 points along the border where tiny differences exist between Lebanese and Israeli claims. The goal of this working group’s negotiations is to determine an exact and agreed border in order to remove any excuse for future provocations.
- Prisoners: there are a small number of prisoners held by Israel who have Lebanese citizenship. Five of these, including one Hezbollah member, were released yesterday in what Israel termed a “goodwill gesture”.
- Outposts: When withdrawing from Lebanon earlier this year, Israel held on to five outposts in Lebanese territory in order to secure its border and monitor possible violations by Hezbollah. The working group will discuss Israel’s conditions for leaving those outposts, with the goal of reaching an agreement that can facilitate a complete withdrawal.
The trilateral working groups exclude France (although they did attend the Naqoura talks yesterday) and UNIFIL (they did host the meeting) that traditionally held of arbitration role since 2006.
A Lebanon-Israel agreement on outstanding issues of dispute would go much farther than previous ceasefires (1993, 1996, 2006) to securing the border for both sides.
A reorientation of Lebanese foreign policy in the more pragmatic Arab camp rather than the Iranian one would be a coup for US regional diplomacy.

February 18, 2025

IDF withdrawing from southern Lebanon, will remain in five strategic points

What’s happening: The IDF is due to complete its withdrawal from villages in southern Lebanon today.

However, the IDF is committed to remaining in five strategic locations:
- Hasullam mountain range – overlooking Shlomi.
- ⁠Jabal Blat – overlooking Zarit, Nurit and Shtula.
- Hashaked mountain range – overlooking Avivim and Mallaqi’a.
- ⁠Hatzivoni mountain range – overlooking Saluq, Margaliot and Manara.
- Tel ⁠Hamamis – overlooking Har-Dov, Metula. ·
The IDF believes these areas are vital due to their topography. An IDF presence will ensure Hezbollah cannot approach the border area.
Following the withdrawal, the IDF will deploy a large number of troops along the ‘Blue Line’ border area. There will be around triple the amount of troops that there were prior to October 7^th.
The IDF is also in the process of establishing new positions protecting every Israeli community close to the border and is investing in advanced camera systems and sensors all along the fence.
Up until this past weekend the IDF continued to expose and destroy Hezbollah military infrastructure, including tunnels, weapons caches, and rocket launchers.
According to the IDF, on Sunday the Israeli Air Force (IAF) conducted “precision, intelligence-based strikes on a number of military sites in Lebanese territory containing rocket launchers and weapons, where Hezbollah activity had been identified.”
On Saturday it struck a “central terrorist in Hezbollah’s aerial unit in the area of southern Lebanon. The terrorist was targeted after repeatedly violating the understandings between Israel and Lebanon over the past few weeks, including his role in leading the launch of UAVs toward Israeli territory.”
Yesterday, IAF jets killed Muhammad Shaheen in the area of Sidon. Shaheen served as the head of Hamas’ Operations Department in Lebanon.

Context: Israel reached an understanding with the US to remain in those five outposts, despite the original ceasefire agreement calling for a complete withdrawal.

Israel’s redeployment means the IDF has now left all Lebanese villages. The outposts lie outside populated areas, so there is little expectation of engagement or interaction with the local population.
Although the Lebanese government is yet to formally comment on the Israeli deployment, President Aoun has been quoted in Lebanese media saying, “the option of war is not helpful and we will act using diplomatic means.”
Under the terms of the ceasefire agreement Israel can and will continue to monitor Hezbollah activity and maintain freedom to act if the threat is considered imminent.
In other circumstances they will register any violations with the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) and the US led monitoring mechanism.
Israeli military officials were hoping the LAF would have deployed faster, but are relatively satisfied with their performance so far. The LAF has successfully deployed in the south as well as along the Syria-Lebanon border.
Prior to the withdrawal IDF troops scoured nearly every house in Lebanon within a strip of land 5-8 km from the Israeli border.
One key test will now be the return of Hezbollah operatives to the villages in the south along with the civilian population. Israeli intelligence is expected to monitor the situation closely to ensure no efforts are made to rebuild their military infrastructure.
Israel is aware of continued efforts by Iran to support Hezbollah. Last week Israel warned the control room at Beirut airport not to let an Iranian commercial airliner land as intelligence had identified it as transporting funds destined for Hezbollah.
The strike in Sidon that targeted Muhammad Shaheen is the latest example of Hamas – Hezbollah – Iranian cooperation inside Lebanon. He was targeted based on intelligence that he was planning terror attacks, directed and funded by Iran. He had previously been involved in firing rockets into Israel.
Shaheen was also considered a close ally of former Hamas deputy leader Saleh al-Arouri, (who was killed in January 2024) and part of the network directing terror attacks in the West Bank.

Hostage negotiations: Reported progress has been made in talks with Hamas to release the remaining six living hostages and eight bodies according to the terms of the first stage of the deal.

In return, Israel is prepared to release all of the Palestinian prisoners slated for release in the first stage of the deal. Israel will also allow mobile homes, tents and bulldozers to be delivered into the Gaza Strip, that are currently waiting on the Egyptian side of the Rafah crossing.
Four of the dead hostages could be released on Thursday.
The handover of bodies will take a different format:
- Mediators will be given the names of the four dead hostages on Thursday morning.
- The Military Chaplain’s Office officials will receive the bodies, and will bring them to the National Centre for Forensic Medicine for identification.
- Only once they have been positively identified will Israeli authorities inform the families and then the public.
The security cabinet met last night to formulate its position over the second stage of the ceasefire agreement.
The two sides have contradictory demands. Hamas is expecting a declaration that the war is over and a full IDF withdrawal.
Israel demands:
The release of all hostages alive and dead.
The demilitarisation of Gaza, with Hamas giving up its weapons.
The exile of Hamas’ leadership.
With all this extremely unlikely, it remains unclear where this will take us.
Instead of a phase two, there could be efforts to extend the first stage, with Israel releasing more prisoners in return for remaining hostages.
Meanwhile, President Trump’s envoy Witkoff repeated yesterday that not a single hostage would be left behind in Gaza, adding that President Trump would make sure that all of the hostages would be freed.

Looking ahead: From tomorrow, residents of the southern Lebanese villages close to the border with Israel are expected to return to their homes.

The IDF is to remain vigilant and prevent anyone from approaching the proximity of the border area.
Evacuated Israeli residents of the north are expected to return home from March 2^nd.
The IDF is expected to remain in those five outposts until it is reassured that the LAF has complete control and that the area is clear of Hezbollah

January 9, 2025

Sa’ar congratulates new Lebanese President

Israel’s Foreign Minister, Gideon Sa’ar, posted on X (formerly Twitter) today saying: “I congratulate Lebanon upon the election of a new President, following a lengthy political crisis. I hope that this choice will contribute towards stability, a better future for Lebanon and its people and to good neighborly relations.”

January 7, 2025

The IDF withdraws from south western Lebanon

What’s happened: In accordance with the ceasefire agreement of 27th November, the IDF has withdrawn its forces from an area in south western Lebanon, around the town of Naqoura, which is close to the Israeli border.

Following the IDF withdrawal, the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) deployed to the town and its surroundings, in coordination with UNIFIL.
According to the LAF, “The deployment occurred simultaneously with the Israeli enemy’s withdrawal from the town.”
The LAF says they will begin working to remove any unexploded ordinances left from battles between the IDF and Hezbollah.
In parallel, US Envoy Amos Hochstein arrived in Beirut yesterday to meet Lebanese officials and attend a meeting of the international monitoring committee overseeing Lebanon’s cease-fire.
The US Envoy met with the Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati and Speaker of Parliament Nabih Berri.
Following the meeting with Speaker Berri, Hochstein said, the “IDF has begun withdrawing from Naqoura in southern Lebanon, and will withdraw from all Lebanese territory. Implementing the agreement in southern Lebanon is not easy, but we are committed to supporting the Lebanese Army.”
Hochstein also met with Lebanese Army Commander General Joseph Aoun, alongside the head of the ceasefire monitoring committee, US General Jasper Jeffers.
Their discussion focused on the mechanism for implementing the ceasefire agreement. Hochstein said that Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon would continue until the IDF is completely out of the country.

Context: The IDF’s redeployment is part of the ceasefire agreement signed at the end of November.

This is considered the most significant withdrawal by the IDF since the start of the ceasefire agreement.
This is partly due to the topography of the landscape, as Naqoura is located on a mountain ridge just above the Israeli coastal communities of Rosh Hanikra and Kibbutz Rosh Hanikra.
Naqoura also has symbolic significance as the headquarters of UNIFIL is based there.
Just last week the IDF exposed extensive military infrastructure that Hezbollah had embedded inside Naqoura. An IDF commander was quoted in the Israeli media saying, “When we scoured the village, we found unbelievable quantities of arms. There were warehouses, lookout points and military equipment in virtually every home.”
The IDF withdrawal marked the third area that Israeli troops have withdrawn from since the ceasefire came into effect.
Since the ceasefire began, as part of its operations to dismantle Hezbollah, Israel has continued to launch daily airstrikes, carry out detonations and bulldozing operations on buildings across southern Lebanon, and advance into areas it did not reach during the fighting. Israel is carrying out these manoeuvres as part of their understanding reached with the US that allows the IDF to continue to remove Hezbollah’s military infrastructure from southern Lebanon.
With just three weeks remaining until the January 26^th deadline for it to have fully withdrawn from the country, the IDF is still holding positions in about 60 areas of Lebanon,.
While it says it is in line with and enforcing the agreement, Lebanese and Hezbollah officials have accused Israel of ongoing violations of the deal.

The mechanism in place for monitoring the ceasefire agreement is led by US Army General Jasper Jeffers. He is supposed to receive reports from Israel regarding Hezbollah’s violations and pass them onto the LAF to handle. Israel has been dissatisfied with the slow pace of LAF’s responsiveness.
So far Israel has presented dozens of violations:
- Most significantly, there are still areas that Hezbollah has not withdrawn from as promised.
- The LAF has not deployed on the ground on the scale stipulated by the agreement.
- Hezbollah has been relocating weapons from the south to areas north of the Litani River and has continued to rebuild and regroup.
Earlier this week defence minister Katz said, “Israel wants to implement the agreement in Lebanon and will continue to enforce it fully and uncompromisingly to ensure the safe return of the residents of the north to their homes. But the first condition for agreement’s existence is a complete withdrawal by the Hezbollah terrorist organisation to beyond the Litani, the complete disarming and the removal of terrorist infrastructure in the sector by the Lebanese Armed Forces—and this has not yet happened. If this condition is not met, there will be no agreement, and Israel will be obliged to act forcefully to ensure the safe return of northern residents to their homes. We won’t allow the emergence of a new threat to the northern communities and to the citizens of the State of Israel.”

Looking ahead: The original 60 day period for redeployment is due to end on January 26^th but Israel is exploring the possibility of extending this period, possibly by an additional 30 days. This will allow the IDF to continue clearing the area and give more time for the LAF to adequately redeploy to the area.

Whilst Israel is concerned over the response by the Biden administration, President-elect Trump is expected to be more flexible on the timetable of Israel’s withdrawal from Lebanon.
Defence Minister Katz has instructed the IDF to prepare offensive operational plans if the ceasefire collapses at the end of the first phase. It is understood that the plans are in place and the IDF has prepared a bank of targets.
There remains concern that when Israel does withdraw, Hezbollah will once again move back south.
The Israeli government has set March 1st as a target date for the displaced residents of the north to return home

January 3, 2025

IDF continues effort to demilitarise southern Lebanon, as Houthis attack again

What’s happening: The IDF continues to target Hezbollah’s military infrastructure within the provisions of the ceasefire agreement.

On Thursday the Israeli Air Force (IAF) struck two Hezbollah sites in Nabatieh that housed medium-range rocket launchers.
The IDF Spokesperson’s Office said, “As part of the enforcement of the understandings between Israel and Lebanon, prior to the strike a request was sent to the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) to neutralise the launchers that posed a threat to Israeli civilians and IDF troops. The launchers were struck only after the request was not addressed by the LAF.”
Earlier this week the IDF exposed extensive military infrastructure that Hezbollah had embedded in village of Naqoura, located on the ridge just above the Israeli coastal communities of Rosh Hanikra and Kibbutz Rosh Hanikra and adjacent to the main UNIFIL headquarters in southern Lebanon.
An IDF commander was quoted in the Israeli media saying, “When we scoured the village, we found unbelievable quantities of arms. There were warehouses, lookout points and military equipment in virtually every home.”
Another soldier is quoted saying, “Until a few days ago, there were several dozen different citrus trees here; we found ready launchers and weapons and ammunition hidden among the trees, hidden in a formation aimed directly at Israel… The rocket launchers were positioned close to the trees and under the branches; if we hadn’t physically entered, we wouldn’t have spotted them, either from the air or when driving by. We really had to enter the area and scour it; the closer we got to the UN headquarters and to Israel, you found more arms because it was closer to Israel. It felt like the UN was covering for them.”
Inside the houses in Naqoura, the IDF found explosive devices, rocket-propelled grenades and Kalashnikov rifles. The troops also located Burqan rockets, rocket launchers, mortars and other weapons.
One of the reasons the IDF had avoided operating in the area until the very last moment was the village’s proximity to the UNIFIL headquarters.
Elsewhere the IDF have also continued to expose underground tunnels, headquarters, arms warehouses, loaded launchers, trucks with launchers.
Last week, the IAF struck infrastructure that was used to smuggle weapons via Syria to Hezbollah at the Janta Crossing on the Syrian-Lebanese border.
Also on Thursday, Syrian sources reported an Israeli airstrike on a military facility near Aleppo.

Houthi attack: Once more in the early hours of the morning millions of Israelis took shelter following sirens as a result of another missile fired by the Houthis from Yemen.

The missile entered Israeli air space with shrapnel falling in the Modiin area. No injuries were reported.
Houthi Spokesman Hizam al-Assad wrote on X that the Yemeni people have the right to punish the people who are punishing children in Gaza. He wrote that the temporary Zionist entity will eventually disappear – God willing, it will be the Yemeni people who cause that to happen.

Operation Many Ways: The IDF have for the first time revealed details of their surprise attack on an Iranian-built precision guided missile factory built under a mountain in an underground facility in Syria that was on the cusp of becoming operational.

The site in Masyaf, west of Hama, was more than 200 km north of Israel and was attacked on the night of September 8^th.
Israeli intelligence had been monitoring the site for several years. It was targeted as it was about to become operational with the ability to produce hundreds of advanced missiles a year.
Under the cover of darkness, over 100 commandos operated inside the missile manufacturing site which was defended by dozens of aerial defence systems deep in the heart of Syria.
Within two-and-a-half hours, the troops captured documentation, destroyed the site and returned safely home.
This was the largest IDF raid, with troops on the ground, since the 1976 operation to rescue hostages in Entebbe International Airport.

Context: The ceasefire with Lebanon has been in place since 27^th November. Since then, and according to the terms of the agreement and part of the understandings with the US, Israel has continued to operate against pockets of Hezbollah resistance and its military infrastructure.

There have also been dozens of violations of Hezbollah still operating or trying to return to southern Lebanon. However there have not been any significant attacks on Israeli territory since the deal came into effect.
In some parts of southern Lebanon, the IDF appears satisfied that the LAF are deploying to prevent Hezbollah re-establishing a presence.
In other places this deployment has been slow, leading Israel to question whether they will be able to complete the withdrawal in the allocated 60 days.
As such, Israel is studying the option of keeping IDF troops deployed in a number of strategic sites in southern Lebanon even after the 60 days.
A second reason to remain is to have the required time to decommission the large quantities of Hezbollah weapons and infrastructure that are still being found on the ground.
The slow pace of the LAF deployment is explained by their overall weakness and the necessity to deploy larger and better trained troops than in the past.
A second explanation could be pressure being exerted by Hezbollah on the LAF.
Israel has lodged several complaints in recent weeks about the LAF’s slow deployment, and said that if Lebanon fails to meet the commitments it undertook in the context of the agreement between the countries, Israel would be forced to remain in southern Lebanon to protect its communities.
The strikes on the Syrian-Lebanon border attest to continued Iranian led efforts to maintain smuggling routes for weapons.
There is concern that Iran may try to circumvent these exposed routes and instead resort to flying weapons direct into Beirut airport that would pose a difficult dilemma for Israel how to respond.

Looking ahead: We are now over halfway through the initial 60 day ceasefire which will expire on 26^th January.

No decision has been made but the option of leaving IDF troops stationed in southern Lebanon will be explored and coordinated with the incoming Trump administration

November 27, 2024

Ceasefire takes effect in Lebanon

What happened: At 0400 this morning, 27th November, the ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon came into effect.

Last night Israel’s security cabinet voted in favour of the ceasefire agreement, 10 – 1. Only National Security Minister Ben Gvir voted against.
During the meeting, the Prime Minister’s Office released a pre-recorded speech by the prime minister highlighting the benefits of the agreement saying, “With a full understanding with the United States, we retain full military freedom of action. If Hezbollah violates the agreement and tries to rearm, we will attack. If it tries to renew its terrorist infrastructure near the border, we will attack. If it fires a rocket, if it digs a tunnel, if it brings in trucks with missiles, we will attack.”
In his speech Netanyahu highlighted three reasons for the ceasefire now:
- “To focus on the Iranian threat.”
- “To give our forces a breather and replenish stocks. And I say it openly, it is no secret that there have been big delays in weapons and munitions deliveries. These delays will be resolved soon. We will receive supplies of advanced weaponry that will keep our soldiers safe and give us more strike force to complete our mission.”
- “And the third reason for having a ceasefire is to separate the fronts and isolate Hamas. From day two of the war, Hamas was counting on Hezbollah to fight by its side. With Hezbollah out of the picture, Hamas is left on its own. We will increase our pressure on Hamas and that will help us in our sacred mission of releasing our hostages.”
Later in the evening, Prime Minister Netanyahu spoke to US President Biden and thanked him for the US involvement in achieving the ceasefire and for the understanding that Israel maintains freedom of action in enforcing it.
In the lead up to the agreement, both sides continued to attack each other yesterday. Sirens were heard all over central and northern Israel.
The last air raid siren warning about incoming rocket fire sounded at 10:30 last night when a number of rockets landed in Kiryat Shmona.
The IDF also continued its offensive strikes on Hezbollah targets throughout Lebanon including 20 sites in Beirut. 13 were in the Hezbollah dominated Dahiya neighbourhood. According to the IDF, “Among the targets struck were a Hezbollah aerial defence unit centre, an intelligence centre, command centres, weapons storage facilities, an operations room, an artillery storage facility, and terrorist infrastructure sites.”
“Seven other targets struck were components of Hezbollah’s financial system, including headquarters, storage facilities, and branches of the Al-Qard Al-Hassan Association, which are used by Hezbollah to collect and store its terrorist funds.”
According to Lebanese media the Israeli Air Force also targeted the border crossings with Syria. According to one report, all of the border crossings were knocked out of commission by those attacks.
In the first test of the ceasefire, a convoy of eight cars and a motorcycle thought to include around 12 Hezbollah fighters approached IDF troops in a Lebanese village close to the Israeli border. The IDF troops fired warning shots.

For further details of the agreement – read our briefing from Tuesday.

Context: The agreement ends 14 months of attacks that began when Hezbollah started launching rockets, missiles and drones into northern Israel on October 8^th, the day after Hamas’s attack out of Gaza.

Since then, Hezbollah has launched over 14,000 attacks against Israel. Israel’s anti-missile defence systems are thought to have achieved a success rate of interceptions of around 90 per cent.
However on the Israeli side 42 civilians and 67 soldiers were killed. Whilst in Lebanon over 3,500 Lebanese were killed, the vast majority were affiliated to Hezbollah.
Netanyahu also took the opportunity to highlight achievements across other fronts in the war:
- On Iran, “We destroyed major parts of Iran’s air defence system and missile-manufacturing capabilities, and we demolished a significant component of their nuclear programme.”
- “In Gaza, we dismantled the Hamas battalions and killed close to 20,000 terrorists. We killed Sinwar, we killed Deif, we killed senior Hamas officials and we brought 154 hostages back.”
- Relating to the West Bank, “we are taking out terrorists, we are destroying terrorist infrastructure and we are operating in all of the terror strongholds. There is no place out of our reach.”
- “In Yemen, we attacked the Houthis’ port of Hodeida forcibly, which the international coalition had not done.”
- “In Iraq, we successfully thwarted, and are still thwarting, many drone attacks, and we have many challenges ahead.”
- In Syria, we are systematically blocking attempts by Iran, Hezbollah and the Syrian army to transfer weapons to Lebanon. Assad must understand that he is playing with fire.”
The agreement between Israel and Lebanon will be accompanied by a US letter of guarantee. The US assurances include:
- Sharing sensitive intelligence regarding violations, including any infiltration by Hezbollah into the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF).
- A US commitment to cooperate with Israel to deter Iran’s destabilising activities in Lebanon, including preventing the transfer of weapons.
- The US recognises Israel’s right to respond to threats emanating from Lebanese territory in accordance with international law.
- This right expands beyond southern Lebanon. Israel reserves the right to act against the development of threats directed against it, if Lebanon is unable or unwilling to thwart such threats: including the illegal entry of weapons into Lebanon through borders and crossings.
Leader of the Opposition Lapid responding to Netanyahu’s statement, saying, “The biggest disaster in our history occurred on Netanyahu’s watch. No agreement with Hezbollah will erase the irresponsibility; no statement to the media will change history. In the meantime, the communities in the north have been devastated, the lives of the residents have been destroyed, the military has been worn down, while they are advancing draft-dodging legislation.”
There is also considerable anger from the leaders of northern Israeli communities. The Mayor of Metulla David Azulai told Army Radio this morning, “The agreement that our country reached is a disgraceful agreement. They want to annihilate us and that is precisely what is going to happen if they find the right time for them, and what happened in the south on October 7 will happen here in the north on a far more powerful scale.”

Looking ahead: The initial stage of the ceasefire is due to last for the next 60 days. In this period, the IDF will gradually redeploy to the internationally recognised border as UNIFIL and LAF will enter the areas vacated.

Netanyahu has cautioned the leaders of local communities from northern Israel that no one would be returning to their home yet. Israel will wait to see whether the other side will honour the agreement.
With this deal completed the focus will return to Gaza, and efforts to secure the release of the 101 hostages, now held for 418 days.

November 26, 2024

Ceasefire in the north believed imminent

What’s happening: The prospects for a possible ceasefire in Lebanon are gaining momentum.

A ceasefire agreement between Israel and Lebanon is expected to be formally declared today, with PM Netanyahu due to convene the security cabinet this afternoon to discuss and vote on the agreement.
The New York Times reports that Khamenei, Iran’s Supreme Leader, has said that the Islamic Republic approves the proposal.
The agreement is broadly based on UN Security Council Resolution 1701, which brought to an end the Second Lebanon War in 2006 and will reportedly include two main components:
- The gradual withdrawal of IDF forces and the deployment of the Lebanese Armed Forces with an international supervisory mechanism – headed by an American general from CENTCOM – to deal with future issues that may arise.
- A side letter from American which guarantees that Israel will retain freedom of action to respond if and when Hezbollah breaches the agreement.
Israeli officials said that no Hezbollah prisoners would be released as part of the deal and that no Israeli assurances would be given to stop assassinations of senior Hezbollah officials in the event the agreement is violated.
Israeli security cabinet ministers have expressed support for ending the war. They believe there is a need to separate between the front in Gaza and that in Lebanon, which they hope will increase international pressure on Hamas that will enable progress towards a deal in the south.
There is concern that the United Nations Security Council could pass an anti-Israel resolution before Trump takes office and Israeli political officials hope that a ceasefire in the north would reduce international pressure on Israel.
Residents and local leaders of Northern Israel are concerned that the emerging arrangement would leave northern Israel communities vulnerable to future attacks. The mayor of Hatzor Haglilit, Michael Kabesa, called the emerging deal a ‘surrender agreement’ adding that it was “a disgrace on an historic scale. This isn’t victory; this forsakes the residents of the Galilee. This is a failure to seize an historic opportunity to change reality for decades into the future. Instead of capitalising on success, as usual, they are braking in the middle. The bill is going to be paid by our children and grandchildren.”
Ben Caspit in Ma’ariv described the deal as the ‘least bad option’ that Israel has to choose from. Caspit argus that strategically the agreement is vital, adding that Israel’s achievements in the war are significant and without an agreement the situation could deteriorate. He also argues that Israel should prioritise focusing on the Iranian threat and the need to return the hostages, rather than continue fighting in Lebanon.
Opposition within the government has been raised by National Security Minister, Ben-Gvir who argues that a cease fire in Lebanon would be a missed opportunity to destroy Hezbollah completely at a time when the organisation is weak.
National Unity party leader Gantz also criticised the proposal and Hezbollah as being “half the job. The idea that we will report to the committee and only then take action is fundamentally flawed, as Hezbollah can burn our intelligence sources and move the means of warfare”
Yesterday, around 40 rockets were launched from Lebanon at Israel. Some were intercepted, while others fell in the Western Galilee. Last night Hezbollah fired around 20 rockets toward Nahariya which left two wounded, including one woman in her 70’s who was seriously injured by shrapnel.
An IDF soldier was seriously wounded in a Hezbollah drone attack on the Mount Hermon area this morning. The IDF also intercepted a drone in the Golan Heights, which was launched toward Israel from Iraq.
Yesterday, the IDF attacked around 25 command centres in Lebanon that are associated with Hezbollah’s Executive Council, the organisation’s highest governing body. The IDF also targeted 20 Hezbollah military headquarters in three waves of focused strikes in the Dahiyeh neighbourhood of Beirut and targeted the capabilities of Hezbollah’s Unit 4400, which is responsible for smuggling weapons to the organisation.

Context: The deal appears leaves Israel with several advantages.

These are as follows:
- It will mark the end of the fighting that has seen Hezbollah’s senior military leadership decimated. In additions, over 3,000 Hezbollah fighters were killed, including dozens of commanders and more were injured.
- The IDF has destroyed the enormous military infrastructure that was built directly across from the border. This also includes Hezbollah’s tunnels network that housed sophisticated weapons and was in place for an invasion of northern Israel.
- Similarly, Israel has dealt with the direct threat of anti- tank guided missiles that were aimed directly at Israeli civilian homes and vehicles.
- The IDF believes it has severely downgraded Hezbollah’s stock of missiles, rockets, drones and their launch capacity.
- The deal will allow the IDF to redeploy and rest some forces, allow reservists to return home.
- It will also allow the military to save munitions and focus on the Iranian threat and Gaza.
- The new deal removes the UN from their oversight role and instead places a US military commander at the head of the monitoring committee.
There are ongoing signs of concern too:
- The agreement leaves Hezbollah with at least some of its capacity in place, including the ability to launch missiles, rockets and drones.
- It provides Hezbollah with an opportunity to rebuild and re-arm.
- Violations, even if the IDF does act, could still lead to the renewal of rocket attacks etc.
Some on the Israeli side had hoped for a buffer zone (similar to the arrangement with Syria after the 1973 Yom Kippur War). That would prevent Lebanese civilians (and presumably Hezbollah) from returning directly to the border and once again look into the northern communities.
To counter the latter point the IDF are expected to redeploy significantly along the border to ensure Israeli civilians have security and the perception of security to allow them to return to their homes.
Israel has reiterated that the deal must guarantee future freedom of action in the case in which weapons are delivered to Hezbollah from Syria; preparations are made to launch a terror attack or fire rockets; and Hezbollah operatives move back to southern Lebanon under the cover of being civilians.
As part of Israel’s coordination with allies, IDF Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi visited the UK on Monday and met with his counterparts from the UK and NATO partners. They discussed strengthening the coalition against Iran and the developments in Gaza and Lebanon.

Looking ahead: If the security cabinet approves the agreement, it is expected that Biden and Macron will declare a 60-day ceasefire today, at which point the full details of the agreement will be published.

There is hope that the ceasefire will act as a catalyst to change internal Lebanese politics, including reducing the power of Hezbollah and limiting Iranian influence in the country.
Similarly, it is hoped the deal will renew efforts to reach a ceasefire in Gaza and see the release of hostages.

November 25, 2024

Hezbollah intensifies attacks across Israel

What happened: Hezbollah fired over 250 missiles and rockets towards northern and central Israel on Sunday, in one of its heaviest barrages.

The attacks included UAVs, rockets, and long-range missiles which caused over 400 warning sirens to sound in the Galilee, Sharon, and Dan.
Impacts caused some damage and a small number of injuries in Haifa, Kfar Blum, and as far south as Petach Tikvah (close to Tel Aviv). Ben Gurion airport also briefly suspended its operations yesterday.
Hezbollah claimed it targeted the Israeli Navy base at Ashdod and an unspecified military target in Tel Aviv using advanced missiles and drones. While this is the first time the group has said that it targeted Ashdod, the IDF said it was not aware of the attack.
Hezbollah has also shared a seemingly AI-generated photo showing damage to a highway from a rocket attack, with a caption threatening that the “fate of Tel Aviv would be the fate of Beirut.”
The IDF carried out a series of airstrikes against Hezbollah targets across Lebanon, in what it said was part of its “ongoing efforts to degrade Hezbollah’s capability to execute terrorist attacks against Israel.” Targets included weapons depots, an intelligence facility, a coast-to-sea missile unit’s facility, and Unit 4400 which is responsible for smuggling weapons from Iran through Syria into Lebanon. Many of these targets were in the Dahiya suburb of Beirut.
The body of Rabbi Zvi Kogan, a dual citizen of Israel and Moldova was recovered in the town of Al Ain on the Omani border. Rabbi Kogan was working in the UAE as an emissary of the Chabad outreach movement, best known for its adherents travelling to often remote locations and supporting Jewish life and practice in fledgling communities. Having been reported missing on Thursday, he is believed to have been abducted and murdered by a cell of Uzbek nationals who were thought to have fled to Turkey. The UAE announced it had made arrests in the case without providing details.
The Emirati Ambassador to the US, Yousef Al Otaiba, has said that his killing “was more than a crime in the UAE — it was a crime against the UAE. It was an attack on our homeland, on our values and on our vision” while the US has confirmed that it is “working in close coordination with Israeli and UAE authorities”.
The Israeli government condemned his killing as an “antisemitic act of terror” and pledged that it would use all available means to bring the killers to justice.
On Saturday, Hamas announced the death of an unnamed female Israeli hostage who was “killed in an area that is under a Zionist aggression in the northern Gaza Strip, while the danger still threatens the life of another female prisoner who was with her”. This statement was accompanied by a blurred photo of a bloody shroud and a close-up of the hostage’s tattoos. Responding, the IDF said it could neither confirm nor deny the reports but was “in contact with her family and are updating them with all the information available.”
A shooting attack took place close to the Israeli Embassy in the Jordanian capital of Amman over the weekend. Three police officers were injured before the gunman was shot and killed. Local media has described a police station as the attack’s target, and refrained from mentioning Israel in any meaningful way.

Context: Despite escalation of violence over the weekend, hope remains that a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah can be reached in the coming days.

Despite the reported mutual willingness of all parties (Israel, Lebanon, and Hezbollah) to agree on a deal brokered by US Special Envoy, Amos Hochstein, an escalation of hostilities and violence neither unexpected nor uncommon.
In the days before a ceasefire, both parties often seek to reassert themselves with shows of force, which may partially explain Hezbollah’s targeting of central Israel and Tel Aviv yesterday.
Despite the Israeli government’s apparent willingness to reach a ceasefire deal, opposition figures including Avigdor Lieberman are more strident, seeming less willing to accept a pause in hostilities as long as Hezbollah can continue firing on Israel.
Iran often seeks to hit Israeli targets abroad, and over the past five years, it has intensified its international terror activities and been responsible for dozens of attempted attacks across Europe (including in the UK), North and South America, Africa, Australia, and Asia.
Targets have included embassies and official Israeli representations, Israeli businesspeople and tourists, as well as synagogues, Chabad centres, and other Jewish community institutions. As a Chabad emissary in the UAE – which is geographically close to Iran – Kogan was likely seen as a soft target.
While the UAE has been critical of Israel’s conduct during the war in Gaza, the two countries continue to share interests regarding radical Islamism and the threat from Iran and its proxies.

Looking ahead: Israel has reportedly agreed to a Lebanon ceasefire in principle, although some issues remain outstanding. There is hope that a deal could be reached in the next few days, whist the Hezbollah attacks are expected to continue till then.

Last week, Naim Qassem, Hezbollah’s Secretary General confirmed that the group had reviewed the US proposal, submitted a response, and now viewed the ball as being in Israel’s court.
The broad contours are a reinforcement of existing UN resolutions: This includes:
- Hezbollah will withdraw north of the Litani River.
- For the first 60 days, the IDF will remain deployed in the first row of villages.
- Instead of the IDF advancing further north, the Lebanese Armed Forces will operate in the space between the first line of villages and all Hezbollah fighters will be moved north of the Litani River.
- After this is completed, the IDF will redeploy to the Blue Line (the internationally-recognised border).
- Israel reportedly wants clearer wording about negotiations on disputed border points between the two counties and is not willing to commit on this issue.
- The US will lead a new international body responsible for monitoring the agreement.
- Israel is insisting the deal will also include US (and international) backing in the form of a presidential guarantee that it retains military freedom of action if Hezbollah violate the agreement.

November 20, 2024

US optimistic for ceasefire in Lebanon

What happened: White House senior advisor Amos Hochstein has met several Lebanese officials to try and advance a ceasefire agreement.

After meeting with Shia Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, who is considered the interlocutor between the Lebanese government and Hezbollah, Hochstein said he felt there was a “real opportunity to bring this conflict to an end… It is now within our grasp.” He added that he hoped the coming days would yield a “resolute decision.”
Hochstein also met with caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati and the Commander of the Lebanese Army Joseph Aoun.
Berri said negotiations were going “good in principle” and that “only a few more technical details remain to be concluded.”
An Israeli official made clear that while Israel was preparing to implement the deal and to withdraw forces, “We will increase the firepower as long as there is no official signature on the agreement.”
Hezbollah continues to fire missiles and drones towards Israel with sirens sounding in Kiryat Shmona, Manara, and areas in the Western Galilee this morning. An IDF reservist, Omer Moshe Gaeldor (30), was killed and three others were seriously wounded in a Hezbollah drone attack in southern Lebanon.
UNIFIL said peacekeepers and facilities had been targeted in three separate incidents on Tuesday, and that four Ghanaian peacekeepers were wounded when a rocket hit their base in southern Lebanon. UNIFIL mentioned it was fired by ‘non state actors’, while the IDF explicitly named Hezbollah, saying they had fired the rockets from the areas of Maaliyeh and Deir Aames in southern Lebanon.
In response to the attack, Argentina announced it was pulling its troops from a peacekeeping force.
On Monday, the IAF struck and eliminated Hezbollah operative Ali Tawfiq Dweiq, the commander of Hezbollah’s medium-range rocket array. Dweiq commanded the medium-range rocket array since September 2024, and was responsible for the launch of over 300 projectiles toward Israel, including towards Haifa and central Israel.
The IDF has also begun conducting targeted raids against a central Hezbollah stronghold in southern Lebanon. In coordination with the IAF, the troops struck dozens of targets in the stronghold that were used to fire rockets into Israel as well as command centres, weapons storage facilities, and observation posts.
The Wall Street Journal reported that, as the IDF continues to advance in southern Lebanon, it has found large troves of Russian weapons, including some manufactured as recently as 2020. “The [Russian-made] weapons Israel is finding now are newer, more advanced, and present in larger numbers than expected by military analysts,” the report notes.

Context: In parallel to the diplomatic process both Israel and Hezbollah are looking for final military gains ahead of any ceasefire.

Although the Americans are confident that a deal can be concluded, Israel is keen for the US to add more diplomatic pressure on the Lebanese to improve the terms of the deal. With limited diplomatic leverage, Israel is using its military clout to add pressure on Hezbollah to end the fighting.
Part of this pressure includes advances to the ‘second row’ of villages in the south, as well as strikes on Hezbollah assets in Beirut and elsewhere.
Despite the US optimism, several issues remain unresolved:
- The most important issue for Israel is to retain freedom of action to thwart any attempts by Hezbollah to violate the agreement, both in terms of returning fighters in close proximity to the Israeli border and Hezbollah efforts to rearm and rebuild their military capacity. This is likely to come in the form of separate document from the US president offering those guarantees. The Lebanese say that such a letter is unnecessary.
- The extent to which Israel will be able to independently monitor Hezbollah activities through overflights and other technology.
- The augmentation and upgrading of UNIFIL. Israel is keen to see more peacekeepers from European states whilst Lebanon prefers Arab forces.
- Clarification of the division and distinction of roles for both UNIFIL and the LAF operating south of the Litani River.
- The composition of the international monitoring mechanism. Prior to the war, there was a trilateral forum consisting of the IDF, the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) and UNIFIL. The new proposal is for there to be a four way committee. This would be chaired (crucially from Israel’s perspective) by a US official (possibly CENTCOM commander), and also include France, the UN and (an as yet unnamed) Arab country. Israel was keen for the UK and Germany to play a role, but that currently seems less likely.
- Confirmation of the process for when Israel reports a violation and the protocol of the oversight committee encouraging LAF or UNIFIL to deal with the issue before the IDF would respond.
- An agreed-upon mechanism for dealing with other disputes, primarily, the ‘Blue Line’ border markings, on which Israel reached agreement with the UN in 2000, but which Hezbollah do not accept and have used as a pretext for continued hostilities.
- Whether the limits on Hezbollah’s presence can – in some places – extend to areas north of the Litani River in areas where, due to the line of the river (relative to the border), there are areas in the Upper Galilee that could still face direct threats from anti-tank missiles.
As part of the ceasefire, Israel may also be seeking some commitment from Iran to restrain their proxies from attacking Israel from Syria, Iraq and Yemen.
Once the principles of a ceasefire are agreed, some of these issues will be resolved during the initial 60 days of the ceasefire, after which the IDF will then redeploy to the Israeli border.

Looking ahead: US envoy Hochstein is expected to remain in Lebanon today and try and resolve some of the outstanding issues.

If there is sufficient progress, Hochstein is then expected to travel to Israel to update the Israeli government on the prospects and timetable for the deal.
Once a ceasefire is agreed,’the repairs and reconstruction of the northern communities can begin – before the eventual return of the residents. This will also allow Lebanese citizens to return home and similarly rebuild.
Israel will then also expedite the building of a new barrier along the border, along with a more substantial redeployment of troops.

November 19, 2024

Hezbollah continues to fire on Israel amid ceasefire talks

What’s happened: Over the last 24 hours Hezbollah has fired several barrages of rockets and missiles at targets across northern Israel, and further south, including the Tel Aviv area.

According to the IDF, five missiles were intercepted before they reached the Tel Aviv area, while one landed between Ramat Gan and Bnei Brak.
Five people were injured with one reported to be in serious condition. The IDF says that the injuries were caused by a surface to air missile interception, although the local municipality and the police claim it was the result of a direct hit.
Yesterday, a teacher and mother of four, Safaa Awad, was killed when a Hezbollah rocket struck a three-story building in the Israeli Arab town of Shfaram. Reports suggest she was killed despite being in a bomb shelter, with the rocket directly hitting one of its walls.
The Rambam Hospital in Haifa reported that 56 individuals were being treated after this attack, mostly for acute anxiety. A 41-year-old woman and 4-year-old boy are also in a serious condition.
Meanwhile the fighting continues in southern Lebanon and in Gaza, especially in the northern areas of Jabaliya and Beit Lahiya.
Despite Israel’s efforts to facilitate the entry of aid into Gaza, the UN has confirmed that 98 trucks carrying food were violently looted over the weekend. It is unclear who was responsible, with Hamas denying responsibility and blaming local gangs.

Context: As the IDF continues to degrade Hezbollah infrastructure and negotiations over a ceasefire progress, Hezbollah still maintains the capacity to carry out deadly attacks on the Israeli home front.

There have been almost 150 alerts this morning, with over 200 throughout Monday.
US Special Envoy Amos Hochstein arrived in Beirut this morning, with Biden administration officials saying they are, “making progress” toward a ceasefire agreement.
Hassan Khalil, an aide to Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, told Reuters that Lebanon had delivered its written response to the US ambassador in Lebanon. “in a positive atmosphere” adding that “all the comments that we presented affirm the precise adherence to (UN) Resolution 1701 with all its provisions.”
However, Israeli officials reportedly do not have high expectations for an imminent breakthrough. A political official told Israel Hayom that he didn’t believe an agreement was likely to be reached in the coming days, “Reaching an agreement is likely to be delayed because of Lebanon’s ambivalence.” He also emphasised that while Israel was preparing to implement the deal and to withdraw forces, “We will increase the firepower as long as there is no official signature on the agreement.”
One key issue remains gaining agreement on freedom of action for the IDF throughout Lebanon in the scenario in which Hezbollah rearms or plans carry out attacks against Israel.
101 hostages remain in captivity in Gaza for 410 days yet there appears little progress in securing their release. The Israel security cabinet once again discussed the issue but maintain their refusal to meet Hamas’s terms – to end the war and to withdraw IDF troops from Gaza.
Instead, Prime Minister Netanyahu gave his consent to Mossad Director Barnea to continue to explore limited deals, aimed at releasing a small number of hostages in return for a temporary ceasefire.
The government also revisited the idea of offering a financial incentive plus safe passage out of Gaza for anyone able to assist in releasing a hostage alive.
Whilst Qatar has stepped back on its mediation role it now falls on Israel to rely on Egyptian mediation.
It appears the Hamas external leadership has left Qatar for Turkey, although it remains unclear if this is permanent or even their final destination.
In an effort to gain clarity on this, Ronen Bar, the head of the Shin Bet, visited Turkey. He is thought to have met Ibrahim Kalin, head of Turkish intelligence.
Turkish sources have refuted claims that Hamas had relocated its political offices to Turkey and are instead only visiting.
According to US State Department Spokesman Matthew Miller, the US is demanding that Turkey extradite the senior Hamas officials and hand them over to the US to stand trial. In a briefing Miller said, “We don’t believe the leaders of a vicious terrorist organisation should be living comfortably anywhere, and that certainly includes in… a major city of one of our key allies and partners.

Looking ahead: Following Hochstein’s meeting in Beirut, Israel will await further clarifications about Lebanon’s position and Hezbollah’s consent to stop their attacks.

Meanwhile in the absence of the deal, Israel plans to attack more Hezbollah assets in Beirut and carry out more assassination operations against senior Hezbollah commanders.
Operations will also continue against Hezbollah infrastructure – particularly on their extensive tunnel network close to the Israeli border.

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