Hezbollah and Lebanon

October 16, 2024

UNIFIL and its problematic role in southern Lebanon

Background

The United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) was established by the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) in March 1978. Its primary objective was to assist the Lebanese government in regaining control in southern Lebanon. In May 2000, Israel withdrew from the security zone it had held in southern Lebanon for eighteen years. In accordance with UNSC resolution 425, the UN recognised and confirmed Israel’s withdrawal and compliance. This UN endorsed boundary is referred to as “the Blue Line.”Following the Second Lebanon War of 2006, UN resolution 1701 expanded UNIFIL’s mandate to ensure that Hezbollah would not operate in the area south of the Litani River. Furthermore that area would serve as a buffer zone between Israel and Lebanon, free of armed personnel, assets, and weapons with the exception of UNIFIL and Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF). As of September 2024, UNIFIL comprised approximately 10,000 peacekeepers from 50 countries. Indonesia is the biggest contributor with over 1,200 personnel, followed by India, Ghana, Nepal, Italy, Spain, France and Ireland. They are tasked with patrolling the region, facilitating humanitarian aid, and supporting local governance initiatives. Despite these efforts, its effectiveness has come under substantial criticism.Every year, UNIFIL’s mandate is renewed at the end of August. At this year’s meeting, Israel’s representative to the UN noted that Hezbollah has built a vast arsenal of rockets in southern Lebanon in UNIFIL’s area of operation. 90 per cent of the missiles fired at Israel that week were launched from civilian areas in their jurisdiction.

UNIFIL’s failures and Hezbollah violations since 2006

UNIFIL has struggled to fulfil its mandate due to significant operational constraints. For example it has been denied access to key areas misclassified as “private property” and over the years its personnel have encountered frequent threats and intimidation by Hezbollah. In 2009 the UN confirmed that Hezbollah violated UN resolution by stockpiling arms and ammunition south of the Litani River, following an explosion at an arms depot in the southern Lebanese village of Khirbet Silim. In 2015 Hezbollah launched a cross-border ambush, firing an anti-tank missile at an Israeli convoy. Two IDF soldiers were killed and seven injured. Since at least 2017, Hezbollah has circumvented UNIFIL and 1701, by operating under the guise of an NGO, “Green Without Borders”, which has established over 30 outposts along the Israeli border. In August 2023, the US Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control, designated the Lebanon-based “Green Without Borders” and its leader, Zuhair Subhi Nahla, as affiliates to a terror organisation.

In August 2018 UNIFIL personnel tried to take photographs near Majdel Zoun. Hezbollah operatives seized UNIFIL peacekeepers’ weapons and set fire to their vehicles.In December 2018, the IDF exposed Hezbollah attack tunnels dug from southern Lebanon into northern Israel. One of the tunnels entered 40 metres in Israel. At Israel’s request UNIFIL carried out an independent assessment confirming the existence of four tunnels close to the Blue Line in northern Israel. UNIFIL said the tunnels constitute violations of resolution 1701.In 2019 a UNIFIL report stated that “Hezbollah activists in civilian clothes used force to prevent UNIFIL troops free movement, with roadblocks, harassment, threats, and theft of electronic equipment.” In December 2022, an Irish UNIFIL peacekeeper was killed and several others wounded after their convoy was shot at whilst driving through the town of Al-Aqbiya in southern Lebanon. Hezbollah was blamed but denied involvement.During the summer 2023, there were several provocative incidents by Hezbollah on the border. In one case two men were filmed climbing the security barrier and stealing an IDF surveillance camera. In a separate incident several men with face masks dressed in military camouflage fatigues walked along the border with Israel.In July 2023, 20 Lebanese figures, presumably Hezbollah members crossed about 80 metres into Israeli territory and placed two tents south of the Blue Line (inside Israel) in the of the Mount Dov region. In September 2023 Israel’s Defence Minister Gallant visited New York and told the UN Secretary-General that “the potential for escalation on the northern border has risen in the wake of serious violations of sovereignty by Lebanon. Iran is pushing Hezbollah to act.” At the time Gallant presented intelligence including maps and photographs highlighting Hezbollah’s recently established lookouts and increased presence on the border and attempts to create friction with IDF forces.On October 8^th 2023, a day after Hamas’s attacks on southern Israel, Hezbollah began to fire rockets, missiles and anti-tank weapons against both Israeli military and civilian targets. Prior to the IDF’s ground incursion earlier this month, Hezbollah fired over 9000 projectiles at Israel. The attacks since October 8^th 2023 have so far resulted in the deaths of 30 civilians (among them 12 children) and 43 soldiers, as well as the internal displacement of over 60,000 civilians.

IDF launches Operation Northern Arrows

On October 1^st 2024 the IDF launched a ground incursion targeting the Hezbollah infrastructure embedded close to the Israeli border, with the aim of allowing displaced Israeli residents of the north to safely return home. At that point UNIFIL were encouraged to leave their posts and retreat north for their own safety.In the first three weeks of the operation the IDF has uncovered and exposed the extent of Hezbollah force build-up of military infrastructure and hardware, some of which was found in close proximity to UNIFIL posts. According to IDF, Hezbollah had fired around 25 rockets and missiles in the last month close to UNIFIL sites. Since the ground operation has begun there have been two claims that Israel has violated UNIFIL’s mandate. In one incident an Israeli tank backed into the gates of a UNIFIL post. According to the IDF the incident took place as the tank, whilst under fire from Hezbollah, was evacuating injured soldiers. According to the IDF, they maintained lines of communication with UNIFIL throughout the incident, emphasising that at no point were UNIFIL personnel at risk. Speaking on October 14^th Prime Minster Netanyahu addressed these allegations saying, “The charge that Israel deliberately attacked UNIFIL personnel is completely false. It’s exactly the opposite. Israel repeatedly asked UNIFIL to get out of harm’s way. It repeatedly asked them to temporarily leave the combat zone, which is right next to Israel’s border with Lebanon.”Prime Minister Netanyahu further emphasised, “Israel is not fighting UNIFIL. It’s not fighting the people of Lebanon. It is fighting Iran’s proxy Hezbollah, which uses Lebanese territory to attack Israel… Hezbollah uses UNIFIL facilities and positions as cover while it attacks Israeli cities and communities. These attacks have claimed the lives of many Israelis.”

Conclusion

Hezbollah began violating the Resolution 1701 shortly after the Second Lebanon War ended, particularly in its effort to rebuild its military infrastructure embedded within Shiite villages in southern Lebanon. Within a decade, the number of violations had increased by 800 per cent and by the end of 2017, Hezbollah had committed around 13,000 violations of the agreement. In 2007, there were 410 violations. By 2017, according to the IDF, there were 3669 of these violations. Around two thirds of those were cases of armed combatants spotted south of the Litani River. Over the same period, Israel has also come under criticism for violating resolution 1701 by conducting intelligence gathering aerial sorties over southern Lebanon. Israel has argued these overflights were necessary given Hezbollah’s force build-up and the lack of accountability by the Lebanese government and UNIFIL. Hezbollah is currently firing missiles toward Israel from areas under the jurisdiction of LAF personnel and UNIFIL forces, the very entities tasked with enforcing the ban on Hezbollah or any other armed group’s presence in southern Lebanon. In efforts to bring the fighting to a conclusion, Israel will be demanding the removal of Hezbollah presence in the south and more vigorous implementation of resolution 1701 to permanently keep Hezbollah away.

October 15, 2024

Shooting attack in southern Israel, as rockets attacks continue

A police officer was killed and another person injured in an apparent terror shooting attack near Yavne, south of Tel Aviv.

According to initial assessments by emergency medical services, the shootings took place in two locations. The first, near the Yavne intersection, and the second in the Nir Galim junction.
Rocket sirens continue to be heard across northern and central Israel, yesterday and this morning.
As of last night, approximately 115 rockets were fired by Hezbollah into Israel. Sirens were heard across central Israel including Tel Aviv.
The IDF said that aerial defences intercepted several projectiles that crossed into Israeli territory, and there have not been any reports of casualties or damage.
Over the past day, in coordination with ground troops, the IAF struck more than 200 Hezbollah terrorist targets in southern Lebanon and deep within Lebanon, including terrorist cells, anti-tank missile posts, and surface-to-surface missile launchers.
In Gaza, IDF troops eliminated a terrorist cell in the Jabalya area that fired anti-tank missiles toward them. Additionally, the troops identified multiple armed terrorists that posed a threat.
According to COGAT data, humanitarian aid to Gaza continues with 83 trucks carrying humanitarian goods transferred to Gaza yesterday, via the Kerem Shalom Crossing.
Yesterday, the IDF announced that Sgt. Koren Bitan, 19, was killed in battle while fighting in the Gaza Strip. Overall, 740 soldiers have been killed since October 7th 2023.
On Monday the UK government announced that it has imposed new sanctions on Iranian military figures and organisations in response to Iran’s missile attack on Israel on 1st October.
The sanctions target senior leaders in the Iranian Army, Air Force, and IRGC Intelligence, as well as organisations like the Farzanegan Propulsion Systems Design Bureau (FPSDB) and the Iranian Space Agency, which are linked to missile development.
The measures include travel bans and asset freezes for individuals, and asset freezes for organisations involved in missile and military technology.

The IDF continues operational activity in southern Lebanon and the Gaza Strip, striking over 230 terrorist targets, as Hezbollah attacks continue.

The operation in southern Lebanon has now entered its third week. Alongside the standing IDF brigades, reservist brigades have also been given missions relatively deep inside Lebanon to remove the threat of an invasion of Israeli territory by the Radwan Force.
The IDF exposed an underground compound, 800 meters long and is fortified against air strikes, included living quarters, a fully-stocked kitchen, showers, motorbikes and other off-road vehicles, and hundreds of sophisticated weapons, including Kornet missiles and anti-aircraft missiles. The troops also found personal firearms and fresh food, which indicated that Radwan Force terrorists had been in the compound until very recently.
This week, IDF eliminated 11 senior Hezbollah commanders, including the head of Hezbollah’s logistics staff and a member of Hezbollah’s Jihad Council, the commander of the Radwan force’s attack area in Bint Jbeil, the artillery commander in Bint Jbeil, the commander of the Hajir sector, the outgoing commander of the Hajir sector, the commander of operations in the Hajir sector, the commander of the artillery in the Hajir sector, the commander of the Hula area, the commander of the anti-tank system in Mis al-Jabal, and the commander of Radwan’s anti-tank system in Mis al-Jabal.
IDF Northen Command Officials estimate that that in the ground manoeuvre in southern Lebanon 800 terrorists were killed.
The IDF are thought to be focusing on targeting Hezbollah’s drone units, following the drone attack on the military base on Sunday near Binyamina and the old age home in Herzliya a day earlier on Yom Kippur.
The operations in northern Gaza is focused on preventing Hamas reconstituting its power base there, including their ability to attack Israelis. Efforts have been made to evacuate Gazan civilians away from the combat zone, whilst Hamas are pressuring them to remain.
During the past week. the Islamic resistance in Iraq claimed responsibility for 20 attacks against Israel.In five incidents, interception of aerial targets to Israel from Iraq was reported, and in another incident, a drone hit in an open area. The rest of the other incidents have no verification.
Since November 2023, the Islamic resistance in Iraq has begun to carry out attacks against Israel and by October 14, 2024, they have claimed responsibility for 208 attacks against Israel.
IDF continues its campaign to destroy Hezbollah’s arms smuggling from Syria and Lebanon. In the beginning of the month, IDF attacked underground infrastructure of Hezbollah’s Unit 4400, in northeastern Lebanon, which is responsible for transporting and smuggling Iranian weapons into Lebanon,
Following precise IDF and ISA intelligence, the IAF conducted a strike during the month of September 2024 and eliminated the terrorist Samer Abu Daqqa, Head of Hamas’ Aerial Unit. Abu Daqqa replaced the previous Head of Hamas’ Aerial Unit, who was eliminated in October 2023.
Samer Abu Daqqa was responsible for carrying out numerous terror attacks, including launching drones towards Israeli territory and IDF troops. He was among those responsible for the paraglider and drones’ infiltrations into Israeli territory during the October 7th Massacre.

October 14, 2024

Hezbollah drone kills four IDF soldiers 60km inside Israel

Four IDF soldiers were killed last night by a Hezbollah drone that exploded in a military training base near Binyamina.

The drone struck approximately 60km from the Lebanese border.
There was no siren, the drone directly struck the dining room, penetrating the roof and exploded during dinnertime.
Fifty-eight soldiers were wounded in the attack. Seven are in serious condition, nine are in moderate condition and the others are all in light condition.
According to the IDF’s preliminary inquiry, two drones were detected over the Mediterranean Sea. One was intercepted near Nahariya, but the second drone was lost for reasons that currently remain unclear.
In a sperate incident earlier on Sunday, 25 IDF soldiers were hospitalised after being wounded in combat in southern Lebanon. Two were described as seriously wounded, and 23 were moderately or lightly wounded.
During the evacuation of the injured soldiers an IDF tank backed into a United Nations Interim Force In Lebanon (UNIFL) post.
This was the second incident involving UNIFIL in recent days. The IDF admitted that on Friday six UNIFIL soldiers had been wounded by IDF fire, while the “troops were responding to a threat.” The IDF said that hours before the incident it had instructed UNIFIL forces to leave for safe civilian areas and to stay there.

Context: The IDF has now been operating on the ground in southern Lebanon for three weeks.

In that time they have uncovered the substantial military preparedness embedded within Lebanese villages close to the border including thousands of weapons and hundreds of tunnels.
In parallel Hezbollah have been consistently able to fire around 150 rockets, missiles and drones into northern Israel on a daily basis.
According to Defence Minister Gallant, his latest assessment is that, “only a third of short and medium-range missiles remain in Hezbollah’s possession.”
Several of the Hezbollah military outposts have been within close proximity of UNIFIL positions.
According to the IDF in the last month there has been approximately 25 rockets and missiles launched by Hezbollah from positions close to UNIFIL.
This has led to Prime Minister Netanyahu to release a video appealing directly to the UN Secretary General saying, “The time has come for you to withdraw UNIFIL from Hezbollah strongholds and from the combat zones. The IDF has requested this repeatedly and has met with repeated refusal, which has the effect of providing Hezbollah terrorists with human shields. Your refusal to evacuate UNIFIL soldiers has turned them into hostages of Hezbollah. This endangers both them and the lives of our soldiers. We regret the harm to UNIFIL soldiers and we are doing our utmost to prevent such harm. But the simplest and most obvious way to ensure this is simply to withdraw them from the danger zone.”
In addition the IDF has been keen to emphasise that during the incident yesterday all UNIFIL personnel were safe in their shelter and were in constant communication with the IDF.
The incident nevertheless drew criticism from Israel’s European allies and was also discussed on the latest call between Defence Minister Gallant and his US counterpart, Secretary of Defence Austin. According to a Department of Defence statement, Austin, “reinforced the importance of Israel taking all necessary measures to ensure the safety and security of UNIFIL forces and Lebanese Armed Forces, and the need to pivot from military operations in Lebanon to a diplomatic pathway to provide security for civilians on both sides of the border as soon as feasible.”
Gallant reportedly promised to continue to take all necessary measures to protect the peacekeeping force stationed in southern Lebanon, despite the operational challenge as a result of Hezbollah’s presence near UNIFIL positions.
The bitter irony is that UNIFIL was deployed in southern Lebanon as part of UN resolution 1701 to prevent the presence of armed Hezbollah fighters operating close to the Israeli border.
Israel does not yet have a holistic solution to the Iranian made drones deployed by Hezbollah. However, it is still estimated that more than half of the drones have been intercepted by a combination of IAF combat planes, or by the Iron Dome and David’s Sling systems.
The drones are small and hard to detect, plus they are capable of frequently changing altitude.
Israel’s ability to intercept rockets is far higher (over 90 per cent) but still could be overwhelmed by massive simultaneous barrages.

Looking ahead: Israel continues preparations and deliberations over the timing and nature of their response to the Iranian ballistic missile attack two week ago.

In an effort to help defend Israel from future Iranian attack, the Pentagon has confirmed that a Terminal High-Altitude Area Defence (THAAD) battery will soon be deployed in Israel, controlled by US military personnel.
According to the Pentagon spokesperson, “The THAAD Battery will augment Israel’s integrated air defence system. This action underscores the United States’ ironclad commitment to the defence of Israel, and to defend Americans in Israel, from any further ballistic missile attacks by Iran. It is part of the broader adjustments the U.S. military has made in recent months, to support the defence of Israel and protect Americans from attacks by Iran and Iranian-aligned militias.”
Israel has developed a laser based interception system that will help combat the threat of drones, but it is only expected to be operational by the summer 2025.

October 10, 2024

Two killed in Kiryat Shmona as rocket attacks intensify

Attacks have intensified with Hezbollah firing around 220 rockets into northern Israel on Wednesday, with continued fire this morning.

In Kiryat Shmona, a couple in their mid-forties Revital Yehud and Dvir Sharvit, who had refused to be evacuated from their home, were killed by shrapnel while walking their dog.
Six people were wounded when 40 rockets hit Haifa and the nearby suburbs.
A building was damaged in Safed, and fires broke out in Hatzor Haglilit and the area surrounding the town.
Sirens sounded yesterday in Caesarea, Zichron Yaakov and other communities near the coast.
Six people were wounded in a terrorist stabbing attack in Hadera. Before being shot the assailant attacked people in four different locations across the city, wounding two in the first, a third in the second, two more in the third, and a sixth in the final location. He was later identified as Ahmad Jabarin, a 36-year-old Israeli citizen from Umm al-Fahm.
Two soldiers were killed, and two soldiers were wounded in the last two days. On Tuesday, Sgt. Noam Israel Abdu, was killed in a ground operation in the northern Gaza Strip. In the same operation, a soldier was severely injured. Another soldier was severely injured in southern Lebanon. This morning, Maj. (res) Ronny Gazinate, 36-years-old, was killed in combat in southern Lebanon.
The IDF continues its operational activity in southern Lebanon. Over the past day, IDF eliminated terrorists during close-quarter encounters and in aerial strikes, located and confiscated numerous weapons including anti-tank missiles. In addition, over 100 Hezbollah terror targets were destroyed.
Over the past day, the IAF struck approximately 185 Hezbollah targets in Lebanon, and in parallel approximately 45 Hamas targets in the Gaza Strip, including terrorist cells, infrastructure sites, military structures, observation posts, launchers, and weapons storage facilities.
The IDF announced it had assassinated two Hezbollah operatives, Ahmad Mustafa Al-Hajj Ali and Mohammad Ali Hamdan, who intended to carry out terrorist attacks in northern communities. The pair were responsible for launching hundreds of rockets and anti-tank missile toward the Kiryat Shmona area.
Last night, IDF intercepted a drone over the Red Sea, which was making its way toward Israel.
In an undercover operation in the West Bank city of Nablus, Israeli forces opened fire on a car in Nablus, killing four terror suspects.

Context: Despite the IDF offensive, Hezbollah is expanding its range and intensity of strikes against Israeli civilian communities .

According to the IDF Hezbollah actually fired over 350 rockets on Wednesday, with approximately 220 crossing over into Israel. Israel’s anti-missiles defences were able to intercept most of them, but the Hezbollah tactic is to try and overwhelm the system.
Wednesday’s attack on Kiryat Shmona was most sustained and heaviest barrage the city has faced since the war began.
In parallel the IDF appear satisfied with the progress they are making targeting Hezbollah’s military infrastructure. The IDF Chief of Staff struck a confident tone during the situational assessment yesterday saying, “Hezbollah is making efforts to conceal the significant damage we have inflicted…. They are experiencing command and control difficulties, leading to confusion at the decision-making level and challenges in their operational capabilities.”
The IDF are working off an orderly battle plan targeting hundreds of Hezbollah command centres, weapons storage facilities and military observation posts. In addition, whenever Hezbollah fires rockets the air force aims to destroy the launchers.
Along with the progress in southern Lebanon, the IDF again emphasised the importance of the attacking the Dahiya neighbourhood in Lebanon which they describe as, “a key terrorist stronghold for Hezbollah.” Adding, “this is where its decisions are made, and it manufactures and hides its strategic weapons – inside and below civilian buildings in Dahiya. Dahiya is not like the rest of Beirut.”
The latest messages from Hezbollah this week attests to their weakened condition and for first time in a year are no longer conditioning and connecting a ceasefire to the situation to Gaza.
At the same time reports are emerging of new approach led by the Mossad to try and reach an agreement to release the hostages. In a role reversal where before Hamas encouraged the Iranian proxies to join in attacking Israel and Hezbollah made any ceasefire conditional on the linkage. Now Israel is new reversing the equation and telling Iran if they want a ceasefire to save themselves and what’s left of Hezbollah they need to pressure Hamas to release the captives.
The three-way call yesterday between Prime Minister Netanyahu, US President Biden and Vice President Harris was their first call since the end of August.
Netanyahu’s insistence on the call as a perquisite for Gallant’s visit to the Pentagon was designed to ensure that Netanyahu remains personally engaged in the coordination with the US.
It is understood that the Biden administration has been working in recent days to moderate possible Israeli attacks and proposed a military-diplomatic “compensation package” instead.
The stabbing attack in Hadera is the third major terror attack in the last eight days, follows the attacks in Tel Aviv last Tuesday and Beer Sheva on Sunday. It was second attack committed by an Israeli-Arab citizen.
The mayor of Umm al-Fahm condemned the attack carried out by a resident of his city saying, “The fabric of common life must be preserved.”
There is heightened concern that in the immediate aftermath there is added motivation for copy-cat type attacks.

Looking ahead: IDF Chief of staff has committed to, “continue to strike Hezbollah with intensity, without allowing them any respite or recovery.”

The security cabinet is expected to meet this evening to discuss and approve the details of Israel’s response to Iran.
Defence Minister Gallant spoke about the anticipated response saying that, “Our attack will be lethal, precise and mainly surprising. They won’t understand what happened and how it happened; they’ll see the results.”
Part of the Israeli dilemma will be to calibrate a strike hard enough to end the cycle of attack and counter-attack.

October 7, 2024

One year on and Iranian proxies continue to attack Israel

Israel has commemorated the one-year anniversary of Hamas’s October 7^th attacks, as it continues military operations in Gaza and Lebanon, while coming under rocket and missile fire from Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis.

Sirens sound this morning in Haifa, Acre and several surrounding towns and villages after a barrage of around 100 rockets were fired from Lebanon so far this morning.
Hezbollah launched 190 projectiles yesterday, including at civilian population centres in Tel Aviv and Haifa. Hezbollah claimed that it targeted the Glilot army base where the IDF’s 8200 signals intelligence unit is headquartered. The IDF says that five rockets were launched in the attack, some of which were intercepted and the rest struck open areas, causing no injuries or major damage.
Military operations against Hezbollah are continuing, with focus on southern Lebanon, and the Dahiya suburb of Beirut. A fourth army division has been deployed to southern Lebanon with the IDF stating it is conducting “limited, localised and targeted operations” in the area.
The IDF announced that it killed the head of Hezbollah’s logistical headquarters, Suhail Hussein Husseini in an airstrike on Beirut. Husseini, a member of Hezbollah’s Jihad Council, participated in weapon transfers between Hezbollah and Iran and was responsible for distributing the advanced weaponry among Hezbollah’s units. Further airstrikes were also conducted on Hezbollah targets in the more northern Beqaa Valley.
The Iranian foreign minister warned Israel against retaliating for its attack against Israel last week adding that any attack on Iran’s infrastructure would be met with a stronger response.
The IDF successfully intercepted a surface to surface ballistic missile fired at central Israel from Yemen. Sirens sounded across the centre of the country, but no injuries or damage was reported.
The Houthis claimed responsibility for this attack, saying that two missiles were fired at Israel as well as numerous drones targeting Eilat and Jaffa.
One Israeli soldier has been killed in the IDF’s latest operations in the northern Gaza Strip with another soldier suffering serious injuries in the same incident. His death marks the IDF’s 350^th fatality since launching the ground operation last October.
The IDF said that 20 Hamas operatives were killed in the past day during a new IDF operation in northern Gaza’s Jabaliya.
Hamas also targeted central Israel with a barrage of rocket fire while October 7^th commemorations took place. While mostly intercepted, shrapnel falling caused some damage to a property in Kfar Chabad where it also lightly wounded two women.
After weeks of silence, Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar has reestablished contact with hostage-ceasefire deal mediators in Qatar while former Hamas politburo chief, Khaled Mashaal told Reuters that the group would rise “like a Phoenix”, and that it continues to recruit fighters and manufacture weapons.

Context: Israel marked the anniversary of the October 7^th attack in two separate national ceremonies last night.

The first was held in Hayarkon Park in Tel Aviv, crowd-funded and organised by some of the victims’ families. It was originally expected to host 40,000 spectators, but due to the expanded range of recent rocket attacks, the capacity was reduced to fewer than 2,000.
The second, formal government-organised commemoration was held in an amphitheatre in Ofakim and pre-recorded several days ago. It was broadcast immediately after the first ceremony ended.
Both ceremonies included survivors’ testimony and musical accompaniment as well as reflecting a full range of Israeli society with messages of solidarity and unity. However the fact that two ceremonies were deemed necessary speaks largely to the continued anger and resentment felt my many over the government’s failure to take full responsibility into the disaster and its foot dragging in launching a state commission of enquiry into the disaster.
There is growing concern for the 101 hostages in Gaza. The latest intelligence assessment made public includes:
- Most of the hostages are being held in tunnels, likely narrow passageways with very little food, without electricity, without showers and without bathrooms, and with almost no air.
- The terrorist captors holding them have become more violent toward the hostages the more the IDF intensified its attacks. One official reportedly told the families that the terrorists’ finger on the trigger had become lighter. He said that the terrorists had been given a direct order to execute hostages if they felt in danger or if they heard soldiers approaching.
- The assessment is that most have lost 20% of their weight and some are most likely are suffering from severe medical issues that have not been treated.
- In such difficult conditions the hostages will not be able to survive for an extended period of time.
Despite the resumption of communication with Sinwar and the pressure from the families to reach a deal, the chances are not considered to be high. This is due to Sinwar’s continued intransigence and Israel’s formal demand to retain its position on the Philadelphi Corridor.
There had been efforts to reinvigorate a plan that would see all of the hostages released and allow Sinwar and the remaining Hamas leadership safe passage out of Gaza.
It remains unclear how much the US administration can invest in this process as the election draws nearer.
In parallel Israel is looking to increase the humanitarian aid into Gaza. The estimated cost is $5.4 billion (£4.12bn) per year for food alone. There are also suggestions that the Israeli Government is pushing to have IDF take over the distribution of all aid to Gaza. The IDF would take responsibility for every stage of the process – purchasing the aid, transporting it, securing it and distributing it to Gaza’s residents.
In the UK, Prime Minister Starmer made a statement to the House of Commons yesterday paying tribute to the victims of October 7th, including 15 British citizens who were slain, and another victim who has since died in captivity. He also talked about the Palestinians death toll, and the humanitarian crisis in Lebanon.
The Prime Minister said he supports Israel’s right to defend herself against Iran’s aggression in line with international law.

Looking ahead: The head of IDF Northern Command has told local leaders of northern communities that they could begin to make plans for the return of their residents after the Succot holiday, at the end of the month. The prevailing assessment is that the communities in question are ones that are at a distance from the border and leaders of these communities will await government endorsement of endorse this plan.

Consultations between Israel and the US continue over a response to Iran for firing 181 ballistic missiles at Israel last week. There are a number of attack options: from military installations to symbols of government, energy infrastructure and the Iranian nuclear programme.
The Israeli government has declared that going forward an additional – ‘Iron Sword War Memorial Day’ will be marked every year on October 7th.

September 20, 2024

Second day of Hezbollah device detonations

What’s happened: At least twenty Hezbollah members have been killed and hundreds injured after two-way radios, solar panels, and fingerprint reading devices used by the group detonated.

A wave of explosions were reported across Lebanon yesterday afternoon as electronic devices (predominantly two-way radios) detonated, including at the funerals of Hezbollah members killed in Tuesday’s attacks.
Hezbollah confirmed the deaths of twenty operatives in the blasts, along with twelve from the day before. While these figures have been corroborated by the Lebanese health ministry, Israel believes the death toll to be higher, with Hezbollah’s special operations Radwan unit hit hard by the two days of explosions.
Israel is again widely believed to be responsible for this attack, but has offered no comment on the incident or mentioned it in any government statements.
Although Hezbollah have initially responded with a barrage of rocket and anti-tank missiles with eight Israelis wounded Thursday morning.
Iran has condemned the “criminal explosion”, and threatened to retaliate against Israel after its Ambassador to Lebanon was injured by his pager exploding yesterday.
The New York Times reports that the Hungarian firm which reportedly manufactured the pagers was a shell company established by Israeli intelligence officers.
Visiting an Israeli Air Force base, Defence Minister Gallant asserted that Israel was initiating a “new phase” of the war with a greater focus on the Lebanese border and countering Hezbollah’s threat. Gallant stressed that Israel’s war aims were “clear and simple: to return the residents of the towns in the north to their homes safely”.
This speech came as it was announced that the IDF was in the process of redeploying the 98th Division from the Gaza Strip to the Lebanese border.
A senior Israeli official told Ynet that if Hezbollah chief Nasrallah accepts an American de-escalation proposal, it could prevent what appears to be a descent towards all-out war.
The Shin Bet, Israel’s domestic intelligence agency, has also announced that it foiled an Iranian attempt to assassinate the Prime Minister, Defence Minister and former PM Bennett. An unnamed Jewish Israeli citizen was recruited in Turkey, smuggled into Iran for at least two visits, and was paid to carry out his mission. The Shin Bet says the assassination plans were seen by the Iranian officials as revenge for the killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran in July.

Context: The detonations in Beirut came a day after widespread pager explosions across Lebanon and Syria which injured approximately 3000 Hezbollah operatives and following Israel’s Defence Minister Gallant’s announcement that the IDF was diverting resources to the northern border in a “new phase” of the war.

Whereas Israel was surprised by the Hamas attack on October 7, it has long prepared for a war with Hezbollah in the north, with the explosions in Lebanon a spectacular example of Israeli military and intelligence planning.
At the same time, while the attacks are undoubtedly a tactical success – in injuring thousands of Hezbollah operatives, requiring the organisation to re-evaluate its communications network, and striking a psychological blow – it remains to be seen whether it will have strategic affect in helping to return 80,000 northern residents to their homes.
Indeed, an all-out war between Israel and Hezbollah remains a distinct possibility.
Comprised of airborne and commando brigades, the 98thDivision’s northern deployment is a strong indication of that front’s current seriousness and priority to the Israeli security establishment. The Division has an important role in the IDF plan for a ground operation in the mountain ranges that overlook southern Lebanon.
Such an operation is considered critical for clearing the underground infrastructure that Hezbollah in the area.

Looking ahead: With Nasrallah due to deliver a speech this afternoon, the US has said that it does not want to see further escalation, and reiterated that it was not aware of the sabotage operation leading to a second wave of detonating devices before it happened.

At the request of Algeria, the United Nations Security Council is scheduled to meet tomorrow. The UN Secretary General, Antonio Guterres, has warned that the pager blasts indicate “a serious risk of a dramatic escalation in Lebanon and everything must be done to avoid that escalation”

September 18, 2024

Thousands of Hezbollah pagers detonated across Lebanon and Syria

What’s happened: At least nine Hezbollah members have been killed with thousands wounded after a near simultaneous detonation of hundreds of pagers used by the group in an attack which took place across Lebanon and Syria.

The majority of injuries are said to have been to the face and the hands, with pagers reportedly beeping moments before detonation to encourage the carriers to pick up and hold them.
Hezbollah and the Lebanese government have both blamed Israel for the detonations. The Israeli government has not offered any comments on the incident.
Iran’s Ambassador to Lebanon, Mojtaba Amani, was also reportedly injured when his pager detonated, losing an eye.
The Biden administration claimed it was “not aware of this incident in advance” while the FCDO has urged “calm heads and de-escalation”.
According to reports, Hezbollah’s supply chain was compromised with small amounts of explosives being placed in the pagers before they were exported to Lebanon.
According to a senior Lebanese security source speaking to Reuters, Mossad planted the explosives in 5000 devices which were imported to Lebanon months ago. While the pagers were from Taiwan-based Gold Apollo, the company has said it did not manufacture the devices. Gold Apollo stressed that these devices were made by another company called BAC which has a licence to use the Gold Apollo brand, but gave no further details.
Hezbollah has vowed to retaliate saying “the resistance will continue today, like any other day, its operations to support Gaza, its people and its resistance which is a separate path from the harsh punishment that the criminal enemy (Israel) should await in response to Tuesday’s massacre”.
The IDF has said there are no changes to the Home Front Command security guidelines in the immediate aftermath of the incident. The GPS signal around the Kirya in Tel Aviv (IDF HQ) currently remains unaffected (it is often jammed when attacks are believed to be imminent).

Context: The detonations closely follow reports that the Shin Bet foiled an attempted sophisticated Hezbollah attempt to assassinate an unnamed senior former Israeli security official, as well as the Israeli government reinforcing its willingness to expand military action in southern Lebanon.

A former Israeli official tells Axios that Israel had planned to use the exploding pagers as an opening blow in an all-out war with the terror group, but had become concerned in recent days that the booby-trapped devices could be discovered. Al Monitor reported that two members of Hezbollah had recently raised concerns about the pagers. An unnamed US official has described the detonations as a “use it or lose it” moment, suggesting the plan was initiated now out of concern that it would imminently be uncovered and compromised.
Hezbollah uses a network of pagers in order to inform operatives and to call up a large number of them quickly with the press of a button. That network was thought to have had many advantages – pagers are small and considered to be relatively secure in terms of information security, especially as they are not dependent on cellular networks.
The blow to Hezbollah is physical, in terms of its injured and killed operatives, intelligence-operational, in terms of how the organisation was successfully infiltrated and psychological, in terms of the humiliation of their failure being spread over social media. The confidence of its operatives will also be shaken in the short term. Although Hezbollah’s counter-intelligence and security has previously been compromised, these detonations mark perhaps its greatest breach in decades.
It will also once again require Hezbollah to evaluate its internal organisational structure, something it has already done following the assassination of several senior commanders, with its Chief of Staff Fuad Shukr foremost among them. In the short term, Hezbollah will likely change its means and methods of communication, which may expose itself to its activities being tracked.
At the same time, this attack has not changed the strategic situation along Israel’s northern border, with 80,000 Israelis still unable to return to their homes.
Combat operations continue in the Gaza Strip with four Israeli soldiers being killed in Rafah when they entered a booby trapped building. One of the deceased was Staff Sergeant Agam Naim, 20. A paramedic attached to the 401st Armoured Brigade’s 52 Battalion, she is the first female soldier to be killed in ground operations in the Gaza Strip since Operation Swords of Iron began.

Looking ahead: Hezbollah chief, Hassan Nasrallah is due to deliver a speech tomorrow afternoon, which will likely centre on the group’s response to the mass pager detonations.

The Iraqi government and an Iran-backed Shia militia, Kataib Hezbollah, have both pledged to send support to Lebanon. The Iraqi government will deploy medical teams, while Kataib Hezbollah has said it will “put all our capabilities in the hands of the brothers in Lebanon…we are fully prepared to go with them to the end, and to send fighters, equipment and support, whether on the technical or logistical level”.

BICOM’s Director Richard Pater spoke to LBC this morning about this incident. Listen here

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