Hezbollah and Lebanon 9

Updated December 12, 2024

Fighting continues amid hopes for a ceasefire in the north

The north: Israeli officials have expressed cautious optimism that a ceasefire can soon be reached in Lebanon.

On Sunday, new Defence Minister Israel Katz highlighted Israel’s military achievements adding, “Now it is our job to continue to put pressure in order to bring about the fruits of that victory.”
Efforts to reach a diplomatic agreement are being led by Strategic Affairs Minister Dermer, who met with Russian officials last week and will meet with US officials this week.
Meanwhile, US Special Envoy Amos Hochstein exchanged draft proposals with Nabih Berri the Shiite speaker of Lebanon’s parliament.
The broad contours of the deal are a reinforcement of existing UN resolutions:
- Hezbollah will withdraw north of the Litani River.
- For the first 60 days, the IDF will remain deployed in the first row of villages and continues to remove all the weapons and military infrastructure.
- Instead of the IDF advancing further north, the Lebanese Armed Forces will operate in the space between the first line of villages and destroy / remove all Hezbollah infrastructure up to the Litani River.
- After this is completed, the IDF will redeploy to the Blue Line (the internationally-recognised border).

Israel is insisting the deal will also include US (and international) backing in the form of a presidential guarantee that it retains military freedom of action if Hezbollah violate any of the agreement
In the meantime, the IDF continues to operate close the border in southern Lebanon clearing Hezbollah’s underground military infrastructure.
According to Arab media reports the Israel Air Force also struck targets inside Syria on Sunday:
- Saudi sources reported that Salim Ayish a senior Hezbollah operative was killed in an airstrike in Al-Qusayr in Western Syria. Salim was implicated in the 2005 assassination of Lebanese PM Rafiq al-Hariri.
- According to Lebanese reports another senior Hezbollah official, responsible for the Golan, Ali Musa Dakdok, was killed in an airstrike in Damascus.
Meanwhile, rockets, missile and drones attacks on northern Israel have continued over the weekend, at a lower intensity (approximately around 50-70 launches a day) than in recent weeks.
On Sunday, three people were injured by an anti-tank missile (ATM) in Metula. The threat from ATMs that rely on direct line of fire was meant to have been removed by IDF ground operation.
This morning, a drone launched by Hezbollah in Lebanon crashed in the Western Galilee and started a fire.

Context: The cautious optimism is primarily based on Israeli achievements on the ground. If success is close to being achieved it may allow residents of northern Israel to return to their homes.

According to the latest IDF data, more than 2,550 Hezbollah terrorist have been killed so far in the war, and more than 5,000 others have been wounded.
110 Israeli soldiers and civilians have been killed by Hezbollah fire.
IDF officials believe that 80 per cent of Hezbollah’s medium range rockets (with a 40-kilometer range) have been destroyed, and they now have fewer than 1,000 left.
Hezbollah had more than 44,000 short-range rockets before the war and currently has fewer than 10,000 left.
Hezbollah also had several hundred precision-guided missiles before the war, and currently has fewer than 100 left.
Trump’s victory in the presidential elections has also helped reach a consensus that it is in the interests of both the Biden administration and Trump that the war should end before Trump is sworn into office in January.
Israel is projecting confidence that Netanyahu and Trump see eye-to-eye and both want to end the fighting on all fronts – with a decisive Israeli victory. Netanyahu said on Sunday that he has already spoken to Trump three times since the election.
Israel recognises that Russia has influence over Hezbollah, Syria and Iran, and that Russia wants a ceasefire. Israel is seeking Russia’s assurance not to allow arms to be smuggled into Lebanon from Syria so as to prevent Hezbollah’s ability to re-arm, which will be crucial to ensure long term calm.
The emerging deal is seen to have ‘wins’ for all parties:
- The US get the end the war it has sought.
- The Israeli military can withdraw and citizens can return to their homes in the north.
- Hezbollah survives without being completely destroyed.
- Iran gets to keep Hezbollah as a proxy, albeit in a substantially reduced capacity.
- In return for Russia ensuring that no more weapons are transferred from Syria into Lebanon, the Biden administration will exempt Russian companies operating in Syria from sanctions.
In the background there is concern that if a ceasefire is not reached, a new UN Security Council resolution might impose significant restrictions on Israel’s operational freedom of action.

Looking ahead: Minister Dermer has arrived in the US where he is expected to meet senior Biden officials as well as President-elect Trump.

He is expected to present Trump with the latest intelligence about the Iranian nuclear programme and explore how to advance a normalisation agreement with Saudi Arabia.
If / once a ceasefire arrangement is agreed, the timing of the 60 day transition should coincide close to Trump’s inauguration on January 20th.

November 6, 2024

Hezbollah rocket fired from Lebanon hits Israel’s main airport

Hezbollah said on Wednesday that it fired missiles at a military base near Ben Gurion Airport, Israel’s main airport. Israeli media reported on Wednesday that a rocket had landed near the airport, hitting a parked car.

November 2, 2024

IDF capture senior Hezbollah official

The IDF captured who it said was a senior Hezbollah official in an operation on Saturday morning during which Israeli commandos landed on the shores of Batroun, northern Lebanon, captured the alleged official and escaped via the sea.

In a statement, an Israeli military official said its forces captured a “senior operative of Hezbollah” and transferred him to its territory to be investigated by military intelligence. The media outlet Axios cited Israeli sources as saying the captured man – Imad Amhaz – was responsible for Hezbollah’s naval operations.

November 1, 2024

Seven killed in northern Israel

What’s happened: On Thursday, seven people were killed by Hezbollah rockets in two separate incidents.

Five agricultural workers were killed in an apple orchard close to Metula. Omer Weinstein, a 46 year old farmer, along with four Thai nationals, were killed when their tractor took a direct hit.
Shortly after the attack in Metula, Hezbollah fired missiles on Haifa bay area. A 60 year old woman, Mina Shafik Hason, and her 21 year old son, Karmi Raja Hason, from Shfar’am were killed whilst picking olives.
Overall, around 100 rockets were fired from Lebanon toward Israel on Thursday.
This morning, rockets attack continued, as around 20 rockets were fired at northern Israel.
In parallel, the IDF continues operations inside southern Lebanon, attacking dozens of Hezbollah targets.
Early this morning, the Israeli Air Force attacked Hezbollah targets in the Dahiya neighborhood in south Beirut for the first time in six days. Prior to the attacks, the IDF warned residents to leave the areas located close to the sites.
There were also reported strikes on weapons storage facilities and command centres used by Hezbollah’s Radwan Forces and its munitions unit in the area of Al-Qusayr, in Syria.
Meanwhile there are continued diplomatic efforts to reach a ceasefire. US special envoys Amos Hochstein and Brett McGurk met PM Netanyahu in Jerusalem on Thursday. Netanyahu emphasised the importance of thwarting the Hezbollah threat to allow the return of citizens from northern Israel to their homes.

Context: One month since the ground incursion began, Israel is close to reaching its two main goals.

First – remove the threat posed by anti-tank missiles that directly threated Israeli communities within the line of sight (fire).
Second – removing Hezbollah’s huge military infrastructure embedded in close vicinity that could have served launch sites for attacks into Israel.
The ground campaign inside Lebanon has come at a cost. 33 soldiers have been killed inside Lebanon in the last month.
Overall, October was the most costly month so far, with 88 Israelis killed in the north and the south.
The civilian deaths yesterday proved Hezbollah maintains the ability to launch rockets and drones from further north. This is why, along with the ground offensive, Israel is keeping up its airstrikes against Hezbollah north of the Litani River, including in Beirut.
With the IDF’s success in the first line of contact, forces are moving further north amid efforts to reach a diplomatic solution.
From Israel’s perspective, the most important diplomatic achievement will be formal US approval to maintain freedom of action to target any Hezbollah violations after a ceasefire is agreed. To that end, Israel is seeking written confirmation from President Biden.
For the last month the Metula area has been a closed military zone. Last week, farmers were allowed to return in coordination with the army, after the direct threat (from anti-tank missiles) was perceived to have been removed.
Whilst Israel’s anti-missile defence has a success rate of over 90 per cent, it does not make interceptions when the rocket trajectory means it will land in open spaces (non-residential areas). This appears to be the case in both fatal incidents yesterday.

Iranian threat: The New York Times reported on Thursday that Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei has given the order to prepare another strike against Israel.

Speaking yesterday, PM Netanyahu related to Iran saying, “we struck its soft underbelly. The haughty words of the Iranian regime’s leaders cannot cover up the fact in Iran today, Israel has greater freedom of action than ever before. We can go anywhere that we need to in Iran.”
He added, “The supreme objective that I have set for the IDF and the security services is to prevent Iran from attaining nuclear weapons. Halting the nuclear program has been – and remains – our chief concern.”
Despite the rhetoric from Iran, they face a serious dilemma. Iran now knows the extent of the damage inflicted by Israel in the attack last week so feels compelled to respond. However, it also understands it is now exposed, and with Israel having established aerial domination, an Israeli counter-strike could do even more damage next time.

Looking ahead: Israel remains on high alert across multiple fronts.

Israeli defence officials assess that Iran could decide to attack via their proxies in Iraq with a combination of drones and ballistic missiles.
Any Israeli response will require close coordination with the US due to the presence of their personnel on the ground. However, regardless of from where it is launched from, Israel may also choose to respond to Iran directly.

November 1, 2024

IDF: Over 1,500 Hezbollah terrorists eliminated

The IDF today announced the following statistics, marking the one month recap of ground operations inside southern Lebanon:

Over 1,500 Hezbollah terrorists have been eliminated
3000+ explosive devices have been uncovered
4,400+ projectiles have been fired by Hezbollah towards Israel
2,500 anti-tank missiles, RPGs, launchers and kornet missiles have been found and dismantled

October 21, 2024

Israel targets Hezbollah financial infrastructure

Recent IDF airstrikes on Hezbollah targeted sites linked to the group’s financing in Beirut and south Lebanon.

The Al-Qard al-Hassan Association, directly funds Hezbollah’s terror activities, including the purchase weapons and payments to operatives in Hezbollah’s military wing.
These strikes follow an IDF warning on Sunday evening that “anyone located near sites used to fund Hezbollah’s terror activities must move away from these locations immediately.”
IDF spokesman, Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari, also said that “in the coming days, we will reveal how Iran funds Hezbollah’s terror activities by using civilian institutions, associations, and NGOs that act as fronts for terrorism”.
On Saturday, Hezbollah attempted to assassinate Prime Minister Netanyahu with a drone strike on his Caesarea.
While empty at the time, the residence only suffered “superficial” damage without causing any injuries, it is the first semi-successful targeting of the prime minister and his family since the outbreak of war last October.
Speaking after the strike, the prime minister said that “the agents of Iran who tried to assassinate me and my wife today made a bitter mistake” with Defence Minister Gallant adding that the attack was essentially on “the State of Israel and its government symbols.”
Iran has distanced itself from this attack, seeking to attribute responsibility to Hezbollah with Tehran’s permanent mission to the UN saying “the action in question has been carried out by Hezbollah in Lebanon.”
The attack received widespread condemnation with the Prime Minister Starmer, calling Prime Minister Netanyahu the same day to express his alarm about the attack. A readout of the call also says they discussed the death of Yahya Sinwar and the opportunity it presented to achieve a ceasefire and hostage release deal, the importance of getting more aid into Gaza, and reaching a political solution in Lebanon.
Fighting continues in Lebanon with the IDF’s Chief of Staff, Lieutenant General Herzi Halevi, telling troops that the IDF had killed an estimated 1500 Hezbollah operators and “taken out their entire command layer.”
Meanwhile, Hezbollah’s rocket and missile fire on Israel continues without abatement, with over 170 projectiles being fired yesterday.
In Gaza, the commander of the Israel’s 401^stArmoured Corps brigade, Colonel Ehsan Daqsa, has been killed in fighting in Jabaliya in the northern Gaza Strip. Daqsa, 41 and from the Druze town of Daliyat al-Karmel is one of six full colonels to fall during the war, four of whom were killed on 7^thOctober.
Colonel Daqsa’s death comes as the IDF intensifies its latest offensive on Jabaliya, saying that Hamas was attempting to re-establish itself there.

Whilst Israel remains in a multi front war, the security cabinet convened on Sunday night to review a variety of issues.

It is understood that preparations have been completed for an attack on Iran, however it remains unclear when and what the targets will be.
In anticipation of another Iranian counterstrike, the US have now deployed a THAAD (Terminal High Altitude Area Defence) battery to help defend Israel. With Israel also requesting a second battery.
The second item at the security cabinet was the ongoing war in Lebanon. After the drone attack at prime minister’s house, Israel is expected to be preparing a tough response.
Israel’s latest targeting of Hezbollah’s financial institution is aimed in part to continue targeting their terror infrastructure. Secondly, it will limit their ability to pay their troops, further decreasing their motivation to fight.
Hezbollah terrorists captured in recent days as part of the IDF ground operation in southern Lebanon told interrogators that Hezbollah had paid money to UNIFIL personnel for use of their positions in southern Lebanon.
As a result of UNIFIL intransience to move north away from the fighting, it has been suggested that Israel will base any future arrangement on commitments made by the Lebanese Armed Forces and less on UNIFIL, as it turns out that the international force has been compromised.
Iranian made drones continue to pose a significant threat to Israel’s home front. Of over 10,000 projectiles launched by Hezbollah in the last year around 1,500 have been drones. Of these around 170 have evaded interception.
The most recently drone attacks struck an old age home in Herzliya on Yom Kippur, an army base near Binyamina last week (that killed four soldiers in the dining room) and now the strike in Caesarea.
The drones are small and hard for radars to detect, plus they are capable of frequently changing altitude. Their slow flight speed also makes them challenging for Israeli fighter jets to intercept. The effectiveness of the drones is increasing due to the fact that they are fired in salvos, together with rockets, attempting to overwhelm Israel’s defence system.
A third issue being explored is a plan to distribute humanitarian aid in the northern Gaza Strip by a private US initiative.
In the meantime, according to COGAT, 114 humanitarian aid trucks entered Gaza yesterday via the Kerem Shalom and Erez crossings.
As part of Israel’s preparations for the winter months and the efforts to find solutions in the field of sanitation, 3,000 tons of hygiene products, 15 garbage containers, and for the first time – a sewage suction truck entered Gaza yesterday.
8 tankers of fuel and 6 tankers of cooking gas were transferred into Gaza. 2 tankers of fuel were coordinated for humanitarian purposes in northern Gaza.
Today, between 10:00 and 14:00, the IDF will pause its operations in the Najar Arjalas neighbourhood in Khan Yunis to enable the movement of humanitarian aid.

With continued efforts to reach a ceasefire and diplomatic solution, US envoy Amos Hochstein will hold talks with Lebanese officials in Beirut later today.

According to latest reports the proposal would allow Israel to enforce the disarmament of Hezbollah in southern Lebanon and maintain access to the country’s airspace.
Tomorrow, US Secretary of State Blinken is scheduled to arrive in Israel.

October 21, 2024

Hezbollah left with just 30% firepower

The IDF estimates Hezbollah has been left with only 30% of its firepower; over 2,000 Hezbollah terrorists have been killed in war so far, including more than 1,200 since start of ground operations.

October 20, 2024

Netanyahu gives Biden conditions for Lebanon diplomacy

The Israeli government has given the Biden administration its conditions for a diplomatic solution in Lebanon. Amos Hochstein is set to travel to Beirut this week to discuss with Lebanese officials.

Among Israel’s conditions, that the Israeli Air Force have freedom of operation in Lebanese air space and that Israel have enforcement rights in Southern Lebanon to make sure that Hezbollah does not build up its military infrastructure.

October 18, 2024

Five members of IDF’s Golani Brigade killed in south Lebanon

Five members of the Golani Brigade’s reconnaissance company were killed Wednesday during a firefight with Hezbollah in a village in south Lebanon.

The soldiers were operating in an area where heavy weapons and underground tunnel shafts had been discovered.
The soldiers opened fire at a building with tunnels shafts and continued firing while searching the premises. At one stage, four terrorists opened fire at the IDF force from a stairwell in the building and a face-to-face firefight ensued. Three IDF soldiers were killed on the spot; two more died of their wounds on the way to the hospital. Three more soldiers were critically wounded.
They were evacuated in three helicopters that were called to the site and landed at the hospital less than one hour after departing for the evacuation mission.
Separately, the IDF announced that the commander of Hezbollah’s Bint Jbeil battalion, Hussein Muhammed Auda had been killed. Auda was responsible for firing rockets at Israel from several towns in the Bint Jbeil district.
The IDF also killed the commander of Hezbollah’s Kana district. Jalal Mustafa Hariri had been responsible for planning and execution of many terror attacks against the Israeli home front from the Kafr Kana village.
The IDF also said dozens of terrorists were killed and more than 150 terror targets were destroyed.

October 16, 2024

UNIFIL and its problematic role in southern Lebanon

Background

The United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) was established by the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) in March 1978. Its primary objective was to assist the Lebanese government in regaining control in southern Lebanon. In May 2000, Israel withdrew from the security zone it had held in southern Lebanon for eighteen years. In accordance with UNSC resolution 425, the UN recognised and confirmed Israel’s withdrawal and compliance. This UN endorsed boundary is referred to as “the Blue Line.”Following the Second Lebanon War of 2006, UN resolution 1701 expanded UNIFIL’s mandate to ensure that Hezbollah would not operate in the area south of the Litani River. Furthermore that area would serve as a buffer zone between Israel and Lebanon, free of armed personnel, assets, and weapons with the exception of UNIFIL and Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF). As of September 2024, UNIFIL comprised approximately 10,000 peacekeepers from 50 countries. Indonesia is the biggest contributor with over 1,200 personnel, followed by India, Ghana, Nepal, Italy, Spain, France and Ireland. They are tasked with patrolling the region, facilitating humanitarian aid, and supporting local governance initiatives. Despite these efforts, its effectiveness has come under substantial criticism.Every year, UNIFIL’s mandate is renewed at the end of August. At this year’s meeting, Israel’s representative to the UN noted that Hezbollah has built a vast arsenal of rockets in southern Lebanon in UNIFIL’s area of operation. 90 per cent of the missiles fired at Israel that week were launched from civilian areas in their jurisdiction.

UNIFIL’s failures and Hezbollah violations since 2006

UNIFIL has struggled to fulfil its mandate due to significant operational constraints. For example it has been denied access to key areas misclassified as “private property” and over the years its personnel have encountered frequent threats and intimidation by Hezbollah. In 2009 the UN confirmed that Hezbollah violated UN resolution by stockpiling arms and ammunition south of the Litani River, following an explosion at an arms depot in the southern Lebanese village of Khirbet Silim. In 2015 Hezbollah launched a cross-border ambush, firing an anti-tank missile at an Israeli convoy. Two IDF soldiers were killed and seven injured. Since at least 2017, Hezbollah has circumvented UNIFIL and 1701, by operating under the guise of an NGO, “Green Without Borders”, which has established over 30 outposts along the Israeli border. In August 2023, the US Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control, designated the Lebanon-based “Green Without Borders” and its leader, Zuhair Subhi Nahla, as affiliates to a terror organisation.

In August 2018 UNIFIL personnel tried to take photographs near Majdel Zoun. Hezbollah operatives seized UNIFIL peacekeepers’ weapons and set fire to their vehicles.In December 2018, the IDF exposed Hezbollah attack tunnels dug from southern Lebanon into northern Israel. One of the tunnels entered 40 metres in Israel. At Israel’s request UNIFIL carried out an independent assessment confirming the existence of four tunnels close to the Blue Line in northern Israel. UNIFIL said the tunnels constitute violations of resolution 1701.In 2019 a UNIFIL report stated that “Hezbollah activists in civilian clothes used force to prevent UNIFIL troops free movement, with roadblocks, harassment, threats, and theft of electronic equipment.” In December 2022, an Irish UNIFIL peacekeeper was killed and several others wounded after their convoy was shot at whilst driving through the town of Al-Aqbiya in southern Lebanon. Hezbollah was blamed but denied involvement.During the summer 2023, there were several provocative incidents by Hezbollah on the border. In one case two men were filmed climbing the security barrier and stealing an IDF surveillance camera. In a separate incident several men with face masks dressed in military camouflage fatigues walked along the border with Israel.In July 2023, 20 Lebanese figures, presumably Hezbollah members crossed about 80 metres into Israeli territory and placed two tents south of the Blue Line (inside Israel) in the of the Mount Dov region. In September 2023 Israel’s Defence Minister Gallant visited New York and told the UN Secretary-General that “the potential for escalation on the northern border has risen in the wake of serious violations of sovereignty by Lebanon. Iran is pushing Hezbollah to act.” At the time Gallant presented intelligence including maps and photographs highlighting Hezbollah’s recently established lookouts and increased presence on the border and attempts to create friction with IDF forces.On October 8^th 2023, a day after Hamas’s attacks on southern Israel, Hezbollah began to fire rockets, missiles and anti-tank weapons against both Israeli military and civilian targets. Prior to the IDF’s ground incursion earlier this month, Hezbollah fired over 9000 projectiles at Israel. The attacks since October 8^th 2023 have so far resulted in the deaths of 30 civilians (among them 12 children) and 43 soldiers, as well as the internal displacement of over 60,000 civilians.

IDF launches Operation Northern Arrows

On October 1^st 2024 the IDF launched a ground incursion targeting the Hezbollah infrastructure embedded close to the Israeli border, with the aim of allowing displaced Israeli residents of the north to safely return home. At that point UNIFIL were encouraged to leave their posts and retreat north for their own safety.In the first three weeks of the operation the IDF has uncovered and exposed the extent of Hezbollah force build-up of military infrastructure and hardware, some of which was found in close proximity to UNIFIL posts. According to IDF, Hezbollah had fired around 25 rockets and missiles in the last month close to UNIFIL sites. Since the ground operation has begun there have been two claims that Israel has violated UNIFIL’s mandate. In one incident an Israeli tank backed into the gates of a UNIFIL post. According to the IDF the incident took place as the tank, whilst under fire from Hezbollah, was evacuating injured soldiers. According to the IDF, they maintained lines of communication with UNIFIL throughout the incident, emphasising that at no point were UNIFIL personnel at risk. Speaking on October 14^th Prime Minster Netanyahu addressed these allegations saying, “The charge that Israel deliberately attacked UNIFIL personnel is completely false. It’s exactly the opposite. Israel repeatedly asked UNIFIL to get out of harm’s way. It repeatedly asked them to temporarily leave the combat zone, which is right next to Israel’s border with Lebanon.”Prime Minister Netanyahu further emphasised, “Israel is not fighting UNIFIL. It’s not fighting the people of Lebanon. It is fighting Iran’s proxy Hezbollah, which uses Lebanese territory to attack Israel… Hezbollah uses UNIFIL facilities and positions as cover while it attacks Israeli cities and communities. These attacks have claimed the lives of many Israelis.”

Conclusion

Hezbollah began violating the Resolution 1701 shortly after the Second Lebanon War ended, particularly in its effort to rebuild its military infrastructure embedded within Shiite villages in southern Lebanon. Within a decade, the number of violations had increased by 800 per cent and by the end of 2017, Hezbollah had committed around 13,000 violations of the agreement. In 2007, there were 410 violations. By 2017, according to the IDF, there were 3669 of these violations. Around two thirds of those were cases of armed combatants spotted south of the Litani River. Over the same period, Israel has also come under criticism for violating resolution 1701 by conducting intelligence gathering aerial sorties over southern Lebanon. Israel has argued these overflights were necessary given Hezbollah’s force build-up and the lack of accountability by the Lebanese government and UNIFIL. Hezbollah is currently firing missiles toward Israel from areas under the jurisdiction of LAF personnel and UNIFIL forces, the very entities tasked with enforcing the ban on Hezbollah or any other armed group’s presence in southern Lebanon. In efforts to bring the fighting to a conclusion, Israel will be demanding the removal of Hezbollah presence in the south and more vigorous implementation of resolution 1701 to permanently keep Hezbollah away.

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Hezbollah and Lebanon

Key background

Fighting continues amid hopes for a ceasefire in the north