Hezbollah and Lebanon 9

Updated December 12, 2024

IDF extends pressure on Hezbollah

What’s happening: The IDF is ramping up military pressure on Hezbollah by targeting Hezbollah assets in Beirut, incrementally expanding ground operation in southern Lebanon and targeting the smuggling routes from Syria into Lebanon.

The expansion of the ground operation came at a high cost yesterday when six soldiers from the Golani Brigade between the ages of 20-22 were killed in a firefight in one of the newly targeted villages in the south.
On Tuesday evening, two Israelis were killed by a rocket that struck a carpentry shop in Nahariya. The victims were identified as two men in their 50s.
Yesterday, sirens were heard across central and northern Israel as a result of both rocket fire and drone infiltrations.
At the same time, Hezbollah are still able to launch dozens of rocket and drone attacks into Israel.
The Hezbollah dominated neighbourhood of Dahiya in Beirut has been targeted several times in the last couple of days. Each time the IDF first sent warnings to the residents before striking. The IDF says that the targets are predominantly weapons storage sites and missile manufacturing facilities located underneath the neighbourhood.
According to the IDF, over the past 20 years, Hezbollah has “established dozens of weapons production sites and storage facilities in the heart of the Dahiya district…. These sites, systematically concealed beneath civilian buildings, have produced and stored hundreds of missiles and rockets intended to inflict significant harm on the State of Israel.”
During these attacks, a large number of secondary explosions have occurred, revealing the presence of additional weapons and explosives.
The IDF also confirmed that it has eliminated the Hezbollah Field Commanders of Khiam, Tebnit, and Ghajar, and the anti-tank missile Commander of the Hajir area. The commander of the Khiam area was, according to the IDF, “responsible for the launches of more than 2,500 projectiles toward the areas of the Golan Heights, the Upper Galilee, the Galilee Panhandle, and toward IDF troops operating in southern Lebanon.”
Last night, the Israeli Air Force downed two drones over Syria headed for Israel from the east.
In the south, an Israel Navy missile ship downed a drone that was fired from Iraq at the southern city of Eilat.

Context: Israel is hoping the expansion of the campaign will force Hezbollah to agree to a ceasefire on Israel’s terms.

The longer the fighting continues, Hezbollah faces the prospect of being further weakened, losing more military assets. They could also face repercussions among the Shiite community as they reap the damage from hosting Hezbollah’s military infrastructure within their villages.
In a further sign of Hezbollah’s weakened position, a former ally, the Maronite Christian leader Gebran Bassil, the head of the Free Patriotic Movement, has said that Hezbollah has lost its legitimacy and blamed them for the situation inside Lebanon.
The outline of the eventual agreement is generally known; that Hezbollah will no longer be present in southern Lebanon south of the Litani River. Instead the Lebanese Armed Forces (possibly alongside augmented UNIFIL forces) will be deployed to the area. Hezbollah will no longer be able to manufacture or import weapons. Crucially for Israel the third condition they are seeking is the freedom of action to respond militarily to any Hezbollah violation in the future.
The IDF has almost completed operations within the first three kilometres closed to the Israeli border, but are still clearing the area of tunnel shafts and underground facilities. This represents the ‘first row’ of villages that topographically look down into Israeli communities.
The village where the six soldiers were killed has not been named, but is understood to be further north, part of the ‘second row’ of villages 3-6 km from the Israeli border.
The IDF now estimates that eighty per cent of Hezbollah’s rockets and missiles have been destroyed, but its remaining munitions are still large enough to continue to send millions of Israelis running to the bomb shelters on a daily basis.
Hezbollah retains the ability to fire around 200 rockets a day, and it is believed to still possess several hundred drones
Hezbollah’s drones continue to pose a threat, though the IDF is learning to cope and claims it is reaching 90 per cent success rate in interceptions.
Despite the IDF’s success in targeting most of Hezbollah’s senior commanders, their ground troops remain mostly intact and have redeployed to the ‘second row’ of villages.
The Golani Brigade is one of the main units within the IDF’s infantry division has now lost 108 soldiers since October 7th last year.
The continued fatalities among the IDF increases the public’s demand for ultra-Orthodox men to also serve and share the burden of service.

Looking ahead: Israel remains determined to continue to target Hezbollah’s military capacity until they agree to a ceasefire. New units are being called to replace those currently deployed.

US Special Envoy Amos Hochstein is expected to return to Lebanon with an Israeli-American draft proposal. The agreement includes an additional document that ensures Israel retains freedom of action to respond to any violations of a future agreement.
Without a ceasefire one option is to re-establish a buffer zone inside Lebanon to prevent infiltrations and direct fire on adjacent Israeli communities.
Israel is also still on alert for a potential Iranian response to the Israeli strikes a month ago. However following Trump’s victory the Iranians are more wary of the consequences and could be deterred for now

November 12, 2024

Rockets fired from Lebanon

Over 200 rockets were fired from Lebanon into Israel on Monday, 11th November. Three rockets directly hit suburbs in Haifa and the Haifa Bay.

The weekend had seen a relative reduction in rocket fire, but yesterday’s attacks were among the most intense so far.
While talks are underway about securing a ceasefire in the north, Defence Minister Katz said, “We will continue attacking Hezbollah with full force until we achieve the war’s objectives. Israel will not agree to any arrangement that doesn’t guarantee Israel’s right to enforce and pre-empt terror itself, achieving the war’s objective in Lebanon, disarming Hezbollah, forcing their retreat to beyond the Litani River and safely allowing the northern residents to return home.”

November 11, 2024

Fighting continues amid hopes for a ceasefire in the north

The north: Israeli officials have expressed cautious optimism that a ceasefire can soon be reached in Lebanon.

On Sunday, new Defence Minister Israel Katz highlighted Israel’s military achievements adding, “Now it is our job to continue to put pressure in order to bring about the fruits of that victory.”
Efforts to reach a diplomatic agreement are being led by Strategic Affairs Minister Dermer, who met with Russian officials last week and will meet with US officials this week.
Meanwhile, US Special Envoy Amos Hochstein exchanged draft proposals with Nabih Berri the Shiite speaker of Lebanon’s parliament.
The broad contours of the deal are a reinforcement of existing UN resolutions:
- Hezbollah will withdraw north of the Litani River.
- For the first 60 days, the IDF will remain deployed in the first row of villages and continues to remove all the weapons and military infrastructure.
- Instead of the IDF advancing further north, the Lebanese Armed Forces will operate in the space between the first line of villages and destroy / remove all Hezbollah infrastructure up to the Litani River.
- After this is completed, the IDF will redeploy to the Blue Line (the internationally-recognised border).

Israel is insisting the deal will also include US (and international) backing in the form of a presidential guarantee that it retains military freedom of action if Hezbollah violate any of the agreement
In the meantime, the IDF continues to operate close the border in southern Lebanon clearing Hezbollah’s underground military infrastructure.
According to Arab media reports the Israel Air Force also struck targets inside Syria on Sunday:
- Saudi sources reported that Salim Ayish a senior Hezbollah operative was killed in an airstrike in Al-Qusayr in Western Syria. Salim was implicated in the 2005 assassination of Lebanese PM Rafiq al-Hariri.
- According to Lebanese reports another senior Hezbollah official, responsible for the Golan, Ali Musa Dakdok, was killed in an airstrike in Damascus.
Meanwhile, rockets, missile and drones attacks on northern Israel have continued over the weekend, at a lower intensity (approximately around 50-70 launches a day) than in recent weeks.
On Sunday, three people were injured by an anti-tank missile (ATM) in Metula. The threat from ATMs that rely on direct line of fire was meant to have been removed by IDF ground operation.
This morning, a drone launched by Hezbollah in Lebanon crashed in the Western Galilee and started a fire.

Context: The cautious optimism is primarily based on Israeli achievements on the ground. If success is close to being achieved it may allow residents of northern Israel to return to their homes.

According to the latest IDF data, more than 2,550 Hezbollah terrorist have been killed so far in the war, and more than 5,000 others have been wounded.
110 Israeli soldiers and civilians have been killed by Hezbollah fire.
IDF officials believe that 80 per cent of Hezbollah’s medium range rockets (with a 40-kilometer range) have been destroyed, and they now have fewer than 1,000 left.
Hezbollah had more than 44,000 short-range rockets before the war and currently has fewer than 10,000 left.
Hezbollah also had several hundred precision-guided missiles before the war, and currently has fewer than 100 left.
Trump’s victory in the presidential elections has also helped reach a consensus that it is in the interests of both the Biden administration and Trump that the war should end before Trump is sworn into office in January.
Israel is projecting confidence that Netanyahu and Trump see eye-to-eye and both want to end the fighting on all fronts – with a decisive Israeli victory. Netanyahu said on Sunday that he has already spoken to Trump three times since the election.
Israel recognises that Russia has influence over Hezbollah, Syria and Iran, and that Russia wants a ceasefire. Israel is seeking Russia’s assurance not to allow arms to be smuggled into Lebanon from Syria so as to prevent Hezbollah’s ability to re-arm, which will be crucial to ensure long term calm.
The emerging deal is seen to have ‘wins’ for all parties:
- The US get the end the war it has sought.
- The Israeli military can withdraw and citizens can return to their homes in the north.
- Hezbollah survives without being completely destroyed.
- Iran gets to keep Hezbollah as a proxy, albeit in a substantially reduced capacity.
- In return for Russia ensuring that no more weapons are transferred from Syria into Lebanon, the Biden administration will exempt Russian companies operating in Syria from sanctions.
In the background there is concern that if a ceasefire is not reached, a new UN Security Council resolution might impose significant restrictions on Israel’s operational freedom of action.

Looking ahead: Minister Dermer has arrived in the US where he is expected to meet senior Biden officials as well as President-elect Trump.

He is expected to present Trump with the latest intelligence about the Iranian nuclear programme and explore how to advance a normalisation agreement with Saudi Arabia.
If / once a ceasefire arrangement is agreed, the timing of the 60 day transition should coincide close to Trump’s inauguration on January 20th.

November 6, 2024

Hezbollah rocket fired from Lebanon hits Israel’s main airport

Hezbollah said on Wednesday that it fired missiles at a military base near Ben Gurion Airport, Israel’s main airport. Israeli media reported on Wednesday that a rocket had landed near the airport, hitting a parked car.

November 2, 2024

IDF capture senior Hezbollah official

The IDF captured who it said was a senior Hezbollah official in an operation on Saturday morning during which Israeli commandos landed on the shores of Batroun, northern Lebanon, captured the alleged official and escaped via the sea.

In a statement, an Israeli military official said its forces captured a “senior operative of Hezbollah” and transferred him to its territory to be investigated by military intelligence. The media outlet Axios cited Israeli sources as saying the captured man – Imad Amhaz – was responsible for Hezbollah’s naval operations.

November 1, 2024

Seven killed in northern Israel

What’s happened: On Thursday, seven people were killed by Hezbollah rockets in two separate incidents.

Five agricultural workers were killed in an apple orchard close to Metula. Omer Weinstein, a 46 year old farmer, along with four Thai nationals, were killed when their tractor took a direct hit.
Shortly after the attack in Metula, Hezbollah fired missiles on Haifa bay area. A 60 year old woman, Mina Shafik Hason, and her 21 year old son, Karmi Raja Hason, from Shfar’am were killed whilst picking olives.
Overall, around 100 rockets were fired from Lebanon toward Israel on Thursday.
This morning, rockets attack continued, as around 20 rockets were fired at northern Israel.
In parallel, the IDF continues operations inside southern Lebanon, attacking dozens of Hezbollah targets.
Early this morning, the Israeli Air Force attacked Hezbollah targets in the Dahiya neighborhood in south Beirut for the first time in six days. Prior to the attacks, the IDF warned residents to leave the areas located close to the sites.
There were also reported strikes on weapons storage facilities and command centres used by Hezbollah’s Radwan Forces and its munitions unit in the area of Al-Qusayr, in Syria.
Meanwhile there are continued diplomatic efforts to reach a ceasefire. US special envoys Amos Hochstein and Brett McGurk met PM Netanyahu in Jerusalem on Thursday. Netanyahu emphasised the importance of thwarting the Hezbollah threat to allow the return of citizens from northern Israel to their homes.

Context: One month since the ground incursion began, Israel is close to reaching its two main goals.

First – remove the threat posed by anti-tank missiles that directly threated Israeli communities within the line of sight (fire).
Second – removing Hezbollah’s huge military infrastructure embedded in close vicinity that could have served launch sites for attacks into Israel.
The ground campaign inside Lebanon has come at a cost. 33 soldiers have been killed inside Lebanon in the last month.
Overall, October was the most costly month so far, with 88 Israelis killed in the north and the south.
The civilian deaths yesterday proved Hezbollah maintains the ability to launch rockets and drones from further north. This is why, along with the ground offensive, Israel is keeping up its airstrikes against Hezbollah north of the Litani River, including in Beirut.
With the IDF’s success in the first line of contact, forces are moving further north amid efforts to reach a diplomatic solution.
From Israel’s perspective, the most important diplomatic achievement will be formal US approval to maintain freedom of action to target any Hezbollah violations after a ceasefire is agreed. To that end, Israel is seeking written confirmation from President Biden.
For the last month the Metula area has been a closed military zone. Last week, farmers were allowed to return in coordination with the army, after the direct threat (from anti-tank missiles) was perceived to have been removed.
Whilst Israel’s anti-missile defence has a success rate of over 90 per cent, it does not make interceptions when the rocket trajectory means it will land in open spaces (non-residential areas). This appears to be the case in both fatal incidents yesterday.

Iranian threat: The New York Times reported on Thursday that Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei has given the order to prepare another strike against Israel.

Speaking yesterday, PM Netanyahu related to Iran saying, “we struck its soft underbelly. The haughty words of the Iranian regime’s leaders cannot cover up the fact in Iran today, Israel has greater freedom of action than ever before. We can go anywhere that we need to in Iran.”
He added, “The supreme objective that I have set for the IDF and the security services is to prevent Iran from attaining nuclear weapons. Halting the nuclear program has been – and remains – our chief concern.”
Despite the rhetoric from Iran, they face a serious dilemma. Iran now knows the extent of the damage inflicted by Israel in the attack last week so feels compelled to respond. However, it also understands it is now exposed, and with Israel having established aerial domination, an Israeli counter-strike could do even more damage next time.

Looking ahead: Israel remains on high alert across multiple fronts.

Israeli defence officials assess that Iran could decide to attack via their proxies in Iraq with a combination of drones and ballistic missiles.
Any Israeli response will require close coordination with the US due to the presence of their personnel on the ground. However, regardless of from where it is launched from, Israel may also choose to respond to Iran directly.

November 1, 2024

IDF: Over 1,500 Hezbollah terrorists eliminated

The IDF today announced the following statistics, marking the one month recap of ground operations inside southern Lebanon:

Over 1,500 Hezbollah terrorists have been eliminated
3000+ explosive devices have been uncovered
4,400+ projectiles have been fired by Hezbollah towards Israel
2,500 anti-tank missiles, RPGs, launchers and kornet missiles have been found and dismantled

October 21, 2024

Israel targets Hezbollah financial infrastructure

Recent IDF airstrikes on Hezbollah targeted sites linked to the group’s financing in Beirut and south Lebanon.

The Al-Qard al-Hassan Association, directly funds Hezbollah’s terror activities, including the purchase weapons and payments to operatives in Hezbollah’s military wing.
These strikes follow an IDF warning on Sunday evening that “anyone located near sites used to fund Hezbollah’s terror activities must move away from these locations immediately.”
IDF spokesman, Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari, also said that “in the coming days, we will reveal how Iran funds Hezbollah’s terror activities by using civilian institutions, associations, and NGOs that act as fronts for terrorism”.
On Saturday, Hezbollah attempted to assassinate Prime Minister Netanyahu with a drone strike on his Caesarea.
While empty at the time, the residence only suffered “superficial” damage without causing any injuries, it is the first semi-successful targeting of the prime minister and his family since the outbreak of war last October.
Speaking after the strike, the prime minister said that “the agents of Iran who tried to assassinate me and my wife today made a bitter mistake” with Defence Minister Gallant adding that the attack was essentially on “the State of Israel and its government symbols.”
Iran has distanced itself from this attack, seeking to attribute responsibility to Hezbollah with Tehran’s permanent mission to the UN saying “the action in question has been carried out by Hezbollah in Lebanon.”
The attack received widespread condemnation with the Prime Minister Starmer, calling Prime Minister Netanyahu the same day to express his alarm about the attack. A readout of the call also says they discussed the death of Yahya Sinwar and the opportunity it presented to achieve a ceasefire and hostage release deal, the importance of getting more aid into Gaza, and reaching a political solution in Lebanon.
Fighting continues in Lebanon with the IDF’s Chief of Staff, Lieutenant General Herzi Halevi, telling troops that the IDF had killed an estimated 1500 Hezbollah operators and “taken out their entire command layer.”
Meanwhile, Hezbollah’s rocket and missile fire on Israel continues without abatement, with over 170 projectiles being fired yesterday.
In Gaza, the commander of the Israel’s 401^stArmoured Corps brigade, Colonel Ehsan Daqsa, has been killed in fighting in Jabaliya in the northern Gaza Strip. Daqsa, 41 and from the Druze town of Daliyat al-Karmel is one of six full colonels to fall during the war, four of whom were killed on 7^thOctober.
Colonel Daqsa’s death comes as the IDF intensifies its latest offensive on Jabaliya, saying that Hamas was attempting to re-establish itself there.

Whilst Israel remains in a multi front war, the security cabinet convened on Sunday night to review a variety of issues.

It is understood that preparations have been completed for an attack on Iran, however it remains unclear when and what the targets will be.
In anticipation of another Iranian counterstrike, the US have now deployed a THAAD (Terminal High Altitude Area Defence) battery to help defend Israel. With Israel also requesting a second battery.
The second item at the security cabinet was the ongoing war in Lebanon. After the drone attack at prime minister’s house, Israel is expected to be preparing a tough response.
Israel’s latest targeting of Hezbollah’s financial institution is aimed in part to continue targeting their terror infrastructure. Secondly, it will limit their ability to pay their troops, further decreasing their motivation to fight.
Hezbollah terrorists captured in recent days as part of the IDF ground operation in southern Lebanon told interrogators that Hezbollah had paid money to UNIFIL personnel for use of their positions in southern Lebanon.
As a result of UNIFIL intransience to move north away from the fighting, it has been suggested that Israel will base any future arrangement on commitments made by the Lebanese Armed Forces and less on UNIFIL, as it turns out that the international force has been compromised.
Iranian made drones continue to pose a significant threat to Israel’s home front. Of over 10,000 projectiles launched by Hezbollah in the last year around 1,500 have been drones. Of these around 170 have evaded interception.
The most recently drone attacks struck an old age home in Herzliya on Yom Kippur, an army base near Binyamina last week (that killed four soldiers in the dining room) and now the strike in Caesarea.
The drones are small and hard for radars to detect, plus they are capable of frequently changing altitude. Their slow flight speed also makes them challenging for Israeli fighter jets to intercept. The effectiveness of the drones is increasing due to the fact that they are fired in salvos, together with rockets, attempting to overwhelm Israel’s defence system.
A third issue being explored is a plan to distribute humanitarian aid in the northern Gaza Strip by a private US initiative.
In the meantime, according to COGAT, 114 humanitarian aid trucks entered Gaza yesterday via the Kerem Shalom and Erez crossings.
As part of Israel’s preparations for the winter months and the efforts to find solutions in the field of sanitation, 3,000 tons of hygiene products, 15 garbage containers, and for the first time – a sewage suction truck entered Gaza yesterday.
8 tankers of fuel and 6 tankers of cooking gas were transferred into Gaza. 2 tankers of fuel were coordinated for humanitarian purposes in northern Gaza.
Today, between 10:00 and 14:00, the IDF will pause its operations in the Najar Arjalas neighbourhood in Khan Yunis to enable the movement of humanitarian aid.

With continued efforts to reach a ceasefire and diplomatic solution, US envoy Amos Hochstein will hold talks with Lebanese officials in Beirut later today.

According to latest reports the proposal would allow Israel to enforce the disarmament of Hezbollah in southern Lebanon and maintain access to the country’s airspace.
Tomorrow, US Secretary of State Blinken is scheduled to arrive in Israel.

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