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Iran and their Proxies

Key background
  • The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is a branch of the Iranian Armed Forces with a constitutional mandate for guaranteeing the Islamic Republic’s integrity and projecting its influence abroad. In practice, this manifests as supporting Iranian allies and proxies with funds, weapons, and training.
  • Many of its allies and proxies are terrorist groups and human rights abusers including: Hamas, PIJ, Hezbollah, the Islamic Resistance in Iraq, the Houthis, Syrian Arab Republic, and Russia.
  • Iran is the world’s leading enabler and facilitator of terrorism, especially targeting the US and its allies. It has also targeted diplomatic missions and diaspora Jews.

Updated November 7, 2024

Israel remains on high alert

Iranian threat: Israel remains on high alert for an Iranian attack after Ayatollah Khamenei threatened Israel with “a crushing response.” 

  • There appears to be a consensus within the Iranian leadership, even among the ‘moderates’ over the need to respond, perhaps even stronger than the October 1st attack.
  • It is anticipated that they will wait until after the US election, but before inauguration. The Iranians are concerned that an imminent response would help Trump in the election.             
  • Khamenei also hinted that their response may not necessarily be solely military, but could also include making advances towards nuclear proliferation.  

October 28, 2024

Assessing Israel’s strike on Iran

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Operational overview: Early on Saturday morning, the Israeli Air Force (IAF) struck 20 targets in three different areas inside Iran.

  • It is understood that the IAF successfully targeted Iran’s advanced long-range air-defence systems, several manufacturing sites for vital components of the Iranian ballistic missile programme, and storage sites for ballistic weapons.
  • The operation is considered one of the most complex missions the IAF has ever undertaken. It involved around 140 aircraft of various types, including those for the attack itself, intelligence gathering, and contingencies for rescue missions. Over half of the crews were reservists, and four members of the flight crew were women.
  • The strike was carried out in the early hours, with targets chosen to ensure no civilian casualties and only minimal military personnel losses.
  • Although Israel operated independently, the strikes were closely coordinated with the US.
  • As a result, Israel did not attack any nuclear or energy facilities, or symbols of the state, focusing solely on military targets. 

Strategic impact: Israel has deemed this operation a success. It has significantly degraded Iran’s ballistic missile production capability, neutralised its air defences, and exposed the regime’s vulnerability to the Iranian public and the wider region.

  • For three hours after Israel had disabled Iranian air-defence systems, it had the ability to target any site it wanted.
  • The Iranians are believed to be reflecting on this vulnerability as they consider whether to respond.
  • Israel has incapacitated Iran’s Russian-made S-300 advanced air-defence systems. As Russia requires all available systems to defend against Ukraine, Iran is unlikely to be able to replenish these defences in the near future.
  • Initial estimates suggest that it could take Iran 2-3 years to reestablish capacity to build more ballistic missiles.    
  • Iran can no longer rely on its chief proxies, Hezbollah and Hamas, to retaliate against Israel. As a result of a year of conflict, both groups have been substantially weakened.
  • Israel considers this operation as a warning to Iran. It still has a bank of targets it can strike.
  • To emphasise this,  IDF Chief of Staff Halevi said  Sunday that the operation, “used only some of our capabilities. We can do much more. We hit strategic systems in Iran. This has great importance. And we will now see how matters develop. We are ready for all scenarios in all the theatres.”
  • Concurrently, the IDF continues to engage in operations in Lebanon and Gaza. While Israel is making progress in uprooting terror infrastructure on both fronts, it has come at a high cost with 23 soldiers falling in the last week. 

Israel – US coordination: US officials appear satisfied with the operation. Although the mission was carried out solely by Israel, coordination with the US, particularly over overflight airspace, was crucial.

  • According to reports of a phone call last week between President Biden and Prime Minister Netanyahu, Biden had warned Israel not to target the nuclear or energy sectors.
  • Instead, the US encouraged Israel to respond strongly enough to deter further attacks while minimising the risk of further escalation.
  • The THAAD (Terminal High-Altitude Area Defence) battery is now deployed in Israel manned by US personnel for the first time ever.
  • Secretary of Defence Austin continues to speak regularly with Defence Minister Gallant, following the strike Austin once more reaffirmed the US “ironclad commitment to Israel’s security and support for its right to defend itself.” According to the Pentagon, “He told the Minister that Iran should not make the mistake of responding to Israel’s strikes, which should mark the end of this exchange.“ 

Internal criticism: The Israeli government faced criticism from within the Likud faction as well as the opposition for not taking the opportunity to strike Iran’s nuclear programme.

  • Leader of the Opposition Yair Lapid stated, “I congratulate the IAF for once again proving its operational capabilities of the highest level in the world and its aerial superiority. Israel’s enemies know this morning that the IDF is strong, can attack powerfully, and reach anywhere. The decision not to attack strategic and economic targets in Iran was mistaken. We could have and should have exacted a much higher price from Iran.”
  • The government was cautious, given that it was already engaged in conflicts on two fronts, and was less inclined to open a new major conflict. However, following the Iranian attack three weeks ago, which included 180 ballistic missiles, Israel felt compelled to respond. 

Diplomatic initiatives: Following two months of no talks, Mossad director Barnea, arrived in Doha, to begin talks with the director of the CIA, Burns, and Prime Minister of Qatar, Al Thani with a view to revisit parameters to enable the release of the 101 hostages now held for 388 days.

  • Not to be outdone by Qatar, Egyptian President Sisi has proposed a ten-day cease-fire in Gaza to exchange four Israeli hostages and an unspecified number of Palestinian prisoners in order to kickstart more substantial negotiations.
  • Prime Minister has directed Sin Bet director Bar to engage with Egypt to improve the terms.  All this without it being clear if Hamas will consent to a deal.
  • US envoy Hochstein is expected to arrive in Israel tomorrow to see if there scope to reach a ceasefire in the north.

Looking Ahead: Israel remains on high alert, waiting to see if Iran will respond militarily.

  • The current prevailing view in Israel is that Iran will respond, as the regime cannot afford to appear weak, both externally and domestically.
  • If Iran does retaliate, it risks leaving itself vulnerable to further attacks.
  • Regardless, with Iranian air defences down, Israel may choose to strike more targets again

October 26, 2024

Israel launches retaliatory strikes on Iran

  • Overnight, Israel conducted a significant number of airstrikes against military targets across Iran in a long awaited reprisal for the missile and drone attacks in April and earlier this month. Strikes were reported in the Tehran, Karaj, Isfahan and Shiraz areas.
  • Tehran has said that it has a “duty” to defend itself, with Iranian news sources reporting that two soldiers were killed with no further details being offered.
  • It is understood that Israel provided Tehran with advance warning of the attack through several third parties, including Russia according to Sky News Arabia.
  • According to Axios, the strikes occurred in three waves. The first wave focused on degrading and destroying Iran’s aerial defence system, with the second and third targeting missile and drone bases as well as weapon production sites.
  • It was also reported that Israeli planes struck Iran-backed targets in Syria. 
  • In a statement released this morning, the IDF’s Spokesman, Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari said: “The retaliatory strike has been completed, and its objectives have been achieved…[targets] included missile manufacturing facilities used by Iran in its attacks on the State of Israel over the past year. Simultaneously, we targeted Iran’s surface-to-air missile arrays and Iranian aerial capabilities that were intended to restrict Israel’s aerial freedom of operation in Iran. Israel now has broader aerial freedom of operation in Iran”.
  • The IDF has confirmed that there have been no changes to Home Front Command guidelines to civilians.
  • The Times of Israel is reporting that “Iran confirmed an Israeli attack had targeted military sites in the capital Tehran and other parts of the country, but said it had caused limited damage and that air defence systems had successfully countered much of the attacks”.
  • Commenting on the strikes, Prime Minister Starmer has said “I am clear that Israel has the right to defend itself against Iranian aggression. I’m equally clear that we need to avoid further regional escalation and urge all sides to show restraint. Iran should not respond.”
  • The Biden administration has confirmed that it was notified about these strikes in advance, but did not participate in them in any way. A US official has said that if Iran retaliates, the US would be ready to again defend Israel against any attacks.
  • Speaking on the record, US National Security Council spokesman Sean Savett told reporters that “We urge Iran to cease its attacks on Israel so that this cycle of fighting can end without further escalation…Their response was an exercise in self-defense and specifically avoided populated areas and focused solely on military targets, contrary to Iran’s attack against Israel that targeted Israel’s most populous city”.
  • Saudi Arabia and the UAE have both condemned these strikes, albeit with Abu Dhabi not explicitly naming Israel in its statement. Jordan has also confirmed that no jets were allowed to use the country’s airspace during the strikes.
  • Observers are now considering what Iran does next. A limited response would effectively allow for de-escalation, thus ending the tit-for-tat cycle of violence. However, anything that endangers Israeli citizens, would elicit another significant response

April 21, 2023

Israel deepens ties with two of Iran’s neighbours

Israeli Foreign Minister Eli Cohen visited both Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan this week, in a move to deepen Israel’s growing ties with the Caucasus and Central Asian regions.

  • Cohen went first to Azerbaijan, where he was accompanied by 20 representatives of the Israeli cyber, defence, homeland security, water management, and agriculture sectors. The delegation met with representatives of both the private and governmental Azeri sectors.
  • Discussions were also held on connecting Israel’s natural gas deposits to Azerbaijan’s pipeline, increasing the potential for delivery of Israeli gas to Europe.
  • Azeri officials told Cohen of the country’s desire to expand Israeli imports to include the cyber and solar energy fields. Agreements were also reached which will see the two countries cooperate on space exploration.
  • After their meeting, Cohen thanked President Ilham Aliyev for the opening of the Azeri embassy in Tel Aviv last month and confirmed that they had discussed “our shared strategic regional challenges, especially regional security and the fight against terrorism.”
  • Cohen then proceeded to Turkmenistan, becoming the first Israeli Foreign Minister to visit the Central Asian state in 29 years.
  • Yesterday Cohen formally opened Israel’s first permanent embassy in the capital of Ashgabat, also meeting with President Serdar Berdimuhamedow.
  • According to the Foreign Ministry, they also discussed expanding cooperation in cyber-tech, agriculture, and water technology.
  • “Turkmenistan is an extremely important country in Central Asia and an energy powerhouse in a strategic location,” said Cohen. “The opening of our permanent embassy today strengthens the relationship between the two countries.”

Context: Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan are of high strategic importance, both for their location and energy resources.

  • Israeli-Azeri ties have been deepening for some years, Cohen’s visit following the trip made by then Defence Minister Benny Gantz last October.
  • Azerbaijan has become more publicly open about its ties with Israel in recent years, breaking a tradition of opacity based on a reluctance to antagonise its Iranian neighbour.
  • In opening its Tel Aviv embassy, and recently appointing its first permanent ambassador, it became the first majority Shiite Muslim state to do so.
  • Commercial ties between the two countries are mutually significant. Israel imports 30% of its oil from Azerbaijan, while Israel provided 69% of Baku’s major arms imports from 2016-2020: 17% of Israel’s arms exports over the period.
  • Israel also provided valuable support to the Azeris during the 2020 Second Nagorno-Karabakh War with Armenia, after which Azeri-Iranian tensions increased, with Tehran carrying out provocative military exercises on the Azeri border.
  • Multiple reports have suggested that the Azeris grant Israel use of its territory for the launching of reconnaissance missions into Iran, and that any future Israeli strike on the Iranian nuclear programme could benefit from a similar Azeri base.
  • Israel has operated a temporary embassy facility in Turkmenistan for the past ten years.
  • “This is a visit to the lion’s maw, a country that is between Russia and Iran, and everything that that implies,” said one member of Cohen’s diplomatic party.
  • Moscow’s influence in Central Asia, which continued to be considerable even following the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991, has shown signs of decreasing in the last year to eighteen months.
  • None of the Republics have backed its invasion of Ukraine and all have complied with sanctions on the Putin government.
  • Turkey, with whom Israel has a complex relationship, is another key regional player, enjoying close linguistic-cultural and political ties with the Central Asian states, coordinating relations through the five-member Organization of Turkic States.
  • With Europe eager to divest from Russian energy, Turkey is also seen as a key gateway to supplying the continent with both oil and natural gas from alternative sources, including both Israel and Central Asian and Caucus states like Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan. Any advances to access to the gas pipeline must go through Turkey.
  • Israel’s desire to supply Europe has been hampered by technical and diplomatic hurdles since the discovery of Israeli gas fields in the Mediterranean
  • Israel and Turkmenistan established diplomatic relations 30 years ago, and the new embassy is now Israel’s third in Central Asia, joining those in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan.
  • The opening of a permanent embassy in Ashgabat is of symbolic importance. Located a mere 15 kilometres from the Iranian border, the new embassy becomes Israel’s closest diplomatic mission to the Islamic Republic.
  • Notably, ambassadors from other states united by concern over Iran, such as the United Arab Emirates, Azerbaijan and the US, were present at the embassy opening.
  • Although ties remain stronger with Tehran than they do in Azerbaijan, the last few years have seen Turkmenistan pivot more towards Iran’s rivals in the Gulf States, with several of whom Israel enjoys increasingly close relations.
  • Turkmenistan is a virtually closed state, regarded by human rights observers as a repressive dictatorship and notable for widescale abuses and corruption.
  • Like the other Central Asian states, it continues to face the effects of Islamist terror, with a number of its citizens joining both al-Qaeda and Islamic State in recent years.
  • The return of the Taliban to neighbouring Afghanistan has only heightened concerns about the Jihadi influence, and in December 2022 Israel hosted a delegation from the Central Asian states to share knowledge on border and cyber security.

Looking ahead: In a sign of the high value placed on the Azeri relationship, Israeli President Isaac Herzog is likely to visit Azerbaijan by the end of May, with the Azeri Foreign Minister also likely to make a return visit to Israel soon.

  • Berdimuhamedov indicated that he was considering following Azerbaijan in ordering the opening of a Turkmenistan embassy in Israel soon.

April 17, 2023

Iran’s exiled Crown Prince to arrive in Israel today

What’s happening: Reza Pahlavi, the son of the last Shah, announced last night that he is visiting Israel this week, “to deliver a message of friendship from the Iranian people.”

  • He wrote on twitter that he will “engage Israeli water experts on ways to address the regime’s abuse of Iran’s natural resources and pay respects to the victims of the Holocaust on Yom HaShoah.”
  • Adding, “I want the people of Israel to know that the Islamic Republic does not represent the Iranian people. The ancient bond between our people can be rekindled for the benefit of both nations. I’m going to Israel to play my role in building toward that brighter future.”
  • He is formally being hosted by Intelligence Minister Gila Gamliel, who praised the “brave decision” to visit.  She added, “The Crown Prince symbolises a leadership different from that of the Ayatollah regime, and champions values of peace and tolerance, in contrast to the extremists who rule Iran. Our nations have enjoyed good relations for thousands of years since the time of Queen Esther who thwarted the evil Haman’s plot to destroy the Jews in Persia. Today, we are taking the first step in rebuilding the relationship between our nations.”
  • Crown Prince Pahlavi said, “The Iranian people aspire to a government that respects its heritage, with the preservation of human rights and respect for religious and cultural diversity, among other things, through the restoration of peaceful and friendly relations with Israel and Iran’s other neighbours. Millions of my compatriots still remember living alongside their Jewish-Iranian friends and neighbours, before the Islamic Revolution tore the fabric of our society apart. They reject the regime’s murderous anti-Israel and antisemitic policies and long for cultural, scientific and economic exchanges with Israel. A democratic Iran will seek to renew its ties with Israel and our Arab neighbours. In my opinion, that day is closer than ever.”

Context: The Crown Prince is the most senior Iranian figure to ever publicly visit to Israel.

  • Since the Islamic Revolution of 1979 he resides in the US.
  • Amid the Iranian protests he has called for a peaceful revolution that would replace authoritarian Islamic rule with a parliamentary monarchy.
  • In an interview with Israel Hayom in 2021, Pahlavi said he believed that the majority of the Iranian people see the Islamic republic’s track record in the global theatre as a failure, and would therefore be happy to make peace with the Jewish state.
  • Iran recognised Israel as a state in 1950 and maintained diplomatic representation in each other’s counties until 1979. In that time, diplomatic relations extended to economic cooperation and even limited security ties. All that ended abruptly in 1979 when Ayatollah Khomeini declared Israel the “enemy of Islam.”

Over the weekend: Rallies were held throughout Iran as the latest example of the current regime calling for Israel’s destruction, orchestrating international Quds Day.

  • In Jerusalem, Friday passed relatively peacefully, however the police declared they prevented eight terror incidents in the last few days.
  • According to the Israeli Police, a record breaking 130,000 Muslim worshipers entered the Temple Mount, up from 80,000 last year.
  • Hamas leader Sinwar addressed a large rally in Gaza  which included a video link up with Iran’s current President. 
  • Hezbollah’s leader Nasrallah marked the occasion with a speech from his bunker warning Israel not to continue its regular strikes in Syria. He also related to recent events of rapprochement within the Arab world and explained it was partly a result of US weakness and withdrawal from the region.  
  • There were minor protests on the Lebanese border in the north, but Hamas’s threatened rocket attacks did not take place.

Looking ahead: The Crown Prince will take part in the official opening ceremony to mark Holocaust Martyrs’ and Heroes’ Remembrance Day.

  • He will visit a water desalination plant in order to understand how Israel’s advanced water technologies could help the Iranian people.   
  • He will also visit various religious sites including the Western Wall in Jerusalem and the Baha’i Gardens in Haifa, where he will also meet members of the community as well as meet Jewish Iranian ex-pats.
  • Hamas political chief Ismail Haniyeh is set to meet with officials in Iran’s rival Saudi Arabia today, in the first such visit by a Hamas leader in several years. Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas will also later visit Riyadh, and meet with both the Saudi king and Crown Prince Mohamed bin Salman.

March 3, 2023

IAEA says Iran nuclear progress accelerating

Information from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) this week revealed that Iran’s progress towards a nuclear weapon has once more accelerated.

  • The nuclear watchdog confirmed that inspections had found uranium particles enriched up to 83.7% in Iran’s underground Fordow nuclear site.
  • It was also revealed that Iran’s total enriched uranium stockpile stood, as of February 12, at 3,760.8 kilograms, some 18 times in excess of the limit imposed by the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) agreement between Iran and world powers.
  • Inspectors also discovered, on January 21st, that two cascades of IR-6 centrifuges at the facility had been configured in a “substantially different” form from that previously declared by Iran.
  • Visiting Berlin, Israeli Foreign Minister Eli Cohen called on the international community to pursue a dual approach of snap-back sanctions and “to have a credible military option on the table as well.” “This is the time…. This is the time to take steps. This is the time to do actions to prevent Iran to achieve a nuclear weapon,” he told Western allies.
  • In a Wednesday press briefing, US State Department spokesman Ned Price said that while Washington continues to favour a diplomatic solution, it was also “very clear” that it would, “through all means necessary, ensure that Iran never acquires a nuclear weapon.”
  • US Undersecretary of Defence for Policy Colin Kahl told a House Armed Services Committee hearing on Tuesday that Iranian progress towards a bomb has been “remarkable”.
  • The increase to 83.7% uranium enrichment moves Iran closer to the weapons-grade threshold of 90%.
  • Though inspectors have yet to confirm if this detection is the result of design or accident, as Iran claims, Iran admits to a programme of enrichment to 60% at two nuclear sites.
  • For nearly two years, Tehran has hampered inspections efforts, including by the removal of monitoring cameras at nuclear sites.
  • Kahl’s testimony concluded that Iran’s “breakout” time to sufficient uranium enrichment to weapons grade now stood at 12 days.
  • “Back in 2018, when the previous administration decided to leave the JCPOA, it would have taken Iran about 12 months to produce… one bomb’s worth of fissile material. Now it would take about 12 days,” he said.
  • The E3 European states – the UK, France, and Germany – share Israeli and US concern at Iranian nuclear acceleration. E3 Foreign Ministers met with US counterpart Anthony Blinken at a side-line meeting at the recent Munich Security Conference, while a joint E3-US statement from early February noted that increased uranium enrichment “carries significant proliferation-related risks and is without any credible civilian justification.”
  • Despite the reduction in breakout time, both Israeli and US intelligence estimate that once the 90% threshold is reached, it will still take Iran between one and two years to build a nuclear warhead capable of forming a ballistic missile.
  • CIA director Bill Burns said in an interview last weekend that the US remained unsure if Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei had made the formal decision to resume a nuclear weapons programme.
  • On Wednesday, former IDF intelligence head Tamir Hayman disagreed with Burns’ assessment.
  • Speaking at an INSS conference, Hayman said that Burns had erroneously applied a “Western” decision-making paradigm to Iran: “We can’t just go based on once we see an order from Iran’s supreme leader that only then will we see a nuclear” weapon.
  • Away from the nuclear issue, Maj. Gen. Oded Basiuk, head of the military’s Operations Directorate, revealed this week that Iran had twice attempted to attack Israeli-linked vessels in the Arabian Sea during the past month.
  • The British navy also announced yesterday that in late February it had seized anti-tank missiles and fins for ballistic missile assemblies likely headed to Houthi rebels in Yemen from Iran, during a raid on a small boat in the Gulf of Oman.
  • UK Minister of State for Security Tom Tugendhat last week confirmed the assessment of Iranian journalist Catherine Perez-Shakdam that Iran is preparing to target Diaspora Jews in the event of an Israeli strike on the Islamic Republic.
  • “They wanted to have a better understanding so they would know how to strike and where, so that if Israel ever dared to attack Iran, the Diaspora would have a very nasty surprise,” said Perez-Shakdam.
  • “We know that the Iranians are using non-traditional sources to carry out these operations, including organized criminal gangs. They are paying criminal gangs to conduct surveillance,” said Tugendhat.
  • In a recent BICOM briefing, Iran expert Behnam Ben Taleblu noted that despite Western condemnation of its support for Russia in its war with Ukraine, Iran is growing more assertive and confident internationally and is embracing the risk inherent in both its nuclear aggression and weapons proliferation.
  • On proliferation, Ben Taleblu cautioned that missions to degrade the supply, such as that widely attributed to the Mossad in Isfahan recently, could not prevent the accumulation of Iranian intelligence and expertise stored online.
  • Last week saw the Israeli Defence Ministry’s 2023 annual work plan conference, with participants including Defence Minister Yoav Gallant, Ministry Director General Maj. Gen. (Res.) Eyal Zamir and the head of the Ministry’s Political-Security Division, Brig. Gen. (Res.) Dror Shalom discussing Israel’s military options in preventing an Iranian nuclear weapon.

Israeli and US officials have confirmed that Israeli Minister for Strategic Affairs Ron Dermer and national security adviser Tzachi Hanegbi will visit Washington early next week for discussions with US national security adviser Jake Sullivan and Secretary of State Anthony Blinken.

  • IAEA head Rafael Grossi is set to meet with Iran’s President Ebrahim Raisi in Tehran tomorrow, in an effort to “reset the relationship at the highest level”.

January 30, 2023

Isfahan weapons factory targeted

An Iranian weapons factory in Isfahan was targeted by quadcopter drones carrying explosives.

  • It is unclear how much damage was caused, with videos showing an explosion (and possibly a secondary explosion – suggesting the presence of explosive material) causing a substantial fire.
  • According to Iranian officials, they successfully shot down two drones, with a third causing “minor damage” to the factory roof.
  • Iran’s foreign minister, Hossein Amir Abdollahian, confirmed the attack yesterday but claimed that “a cowardly drone attack on a military site in central Iran will not impede Iran’s progress on its peaceful nuclear programme.”
  • Israeli media has reported four quadcopters caused significant damage to the military installation which manufactured Shahed-136 drones (the type supplied to Russia) as well as ballistic missiles.
  • According to the Wall Street Journal and the New York Times, it was Israel’s intelligence agency Mossad who was responsible for the strikes, though no Israeli officials have confirmed this.
  • In a separate incident there were reports of a convoy of trucks belonging to the IRGC that was targeted crossing the border into Syria from Iraq.  Al-Arabiya reported that the aircraft fired warning shots to allow the truck drivers to escape.  The Hezbollah-affiliated Al-Mayadeen network reported that the attack targeted three Iranian trucks that were part of a convoy of 25 trucks.

If Israel was responsible, this appears to be Israel’s first attack inside Iran since Prime Minister Netanyahu returned to office.

  • Whoever was responsible for the attack exhibited impressive technological ability, precise intelligence and operation by agents on the ground (the quadcopters only have a only a modest range).
  • This is understood to be at least the fourth Israeli attack inside Iran since Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, the head of Iran’s nuclear weapons programme was assassinated in November 2020.
  • Since then advanced centrifuges in Natanz were targeted in April 2021 and in Karaj in June that year.
  • In February 2022 Iran’s main manufacturing and storage demo for military drones in Kermanshah was targeted after two armed drones were launched towards Israel (and shot down over Iraq). In that strike it is estimated that hundreds of Iranian drones were destroyed.
  • Quadcopters could have been used in that strike and have also been deployed in other attacks, including the targeting of a factory producing precision guided missiles inside Lebanon in August 2019.
  • Isfahan is one of Iran’s largest and most advanced missile production, research and development sites. These weapons were designated for Iranian proxies across the region that threaten Israel, as well as to potentially supply Russia to be used in Ukraine.
  • The target of the strike near the Iraq- Syria border appears to resemble a similar convoy of weapons smuggling that outgoing IDF Chief of Staff Kochavi claimed was targeted in a preventative Israeli strike in December 2022.
  • These strikes took place just days after the largest ever Israel – US military drill. It also coincided with the director of the Central Intelligence Agency, William J. Burns, visiting Israel.
  • US Secretary of State Blinken arrives in Israel today. This afternoon he is expected to meet Prime Minister Netanyahu and President Herzog. Iran, expanding the Abraham Accords, US-Israeli security cooperation, Palestinian violence, and judicial reform are all on the agenda.

January 18, 2023

Hamas releases hostage video

Hamas released a video recording of Avera Mengistu who has been imprisoned by Hamas for the last eight years after he crossed the border fence into the Gaza Strip in 2014.

  • In the short clip he is seen on camera saying: “I am the prisoner Avera Mengistu. How much longer will I be here, I and my friends, in captivity after long and painful years? Where are the Israeli state and people to care about our fate?”
  • The video also quotes outgoing IDF Chief of Staff Kochavi, saying that he regretted having failed to bring the MIAs and civilian captives home before the end of his tenure.
  • The Hamas video then shows footage from the IDF handover ceremony, with the message: “Your predecessor left you lies.”
  • The clip was being studied by Israeli experts to ascertain its authenticity. It appears to be the first indication of proof that the Israeli civilian is still alive eight years into his incarceration.
  • Yesterday Prime Minister Netanyahu related to the clip saying: “Israel has not ceased its efforts to bring back Avera Mengistu and our other captives and MIAs. Yesterday we received additional confirmation of what we have known all along – that Avera is alive. He is a young man, not in the best of health, and Hamas is entirely responsible for his fate.”
  • The Mengistu family issued a statement: “It’s more urgent for us to get him back than to see him in a video. This is further proof that he is alive. The state needs to act quickly to bring him home. He appears to be healthy and taken care of. There’s no reason for him to remain in prison for even one day longer. Beyond that, it was very moving to see him. This is the first time that we’ve seen him.”

The release of the recording appears to have been deliberately timed to coincide with the first day of the new IDF Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi.

  • The assessment in Israel is that the release was designed to divert attention from the occasion and embarrass the IDF.
  • However, by releasing the video for “free” others have concluded that the recording attests to the pressure Hamas is feeling. In the past such videos confirming “proof of life” have come at a price. For example, Israel released several female Palestinian prisoners before Hamas agreed to release a video recording of Gilad Shalit.
  • According to Mengistu’s family he suffered from mental health issues and crossed over into the Gaza Strip on his own volition, before being captured and held by Hamas. He went missing on September 7, 2014, leaving his home in Ashkelon with only a rucksack, walking ten km to the border and crossing the fence and entering the Gaza Strip.
  • Last summer Hamas released a similar video of Hisham al-Sayed, the second Israeli citizen held captive by Hamas, who also crossed the border into the Gaza Strip in 2015.
  • In addition Hamas still hold the remains of Hadar Goldin and Oron Shaul, IDF soldiers killed in 2014.
  • Beyond assessing that the footage is authentic, questions remain as when it was filmed.
  • Foreign Minister Eli Cohen is sending letters to the Pope, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, the Red Cross president, and the head of the World Health Organisation asking them to intercede to secure the release of Mengistu and the other captives.

The video suggests Hamas is keen to reach an agreement with Israel for a prisoner exchange deal.

  • As with most aspects of Israel’s approach to the Gaza Strip, negotiations over a potential deal are facilitated by the Egyptians, who reiterated this morning that they are ready to renew their role.
  • Israel will need to appoint a new chief negotiator after Yaron Blum resigned at the end of October.
  • Hamas continues to demand that Israel release several dozen murderers and prisoners who were released in the Gilad Shalit deal and re-arrested on terror charges.
  • Hamas’s aim is to restart a public debate in Israel and pressure the government to move forward with a prisoner exchange deal.

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