What’s happened: Yesterday in Versailles, President Trump signed the Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) negotiated with Iran which will reopen the Strait of Hormuz and launch a sixty-day period of negotiations for a comprehensive agreement on Iran’s nuclear programme and the lifting of US sanctions on Iran.

• The MOU comprises 14 points in total.
• The first point declares “the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon.” Lebanon, in fact, is mentioned three times in the first point, which includes a clause committing the US and Iran to “ensuring the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Lebanon,” which presumably applies both to America’s ally Israel and to Iran’s proxy force Hezbollah.
• The MOU establishes a sixty-day period for the two sides to negotiate a comprehensive agreement on Iran’s nuclear programme, extendable by mutual agreement. At the outset, the Iranians commit not to “procure or develop nuclear weapons.” Also, the US commits itself to terminating all sanctions on Iran when a final deal is agreed upon. When a final deal is agreed upon, it shall be endorsed by a binding resolution of the UN Security Council.
• The US will end its blockade of Iran within 30 days, but otherwise maintains its status quo posture for the duration of the negotiation period. Once a final deal is reached, it will make a substantial withdrawal of its forces within 30 days after the comprehensive deal is signed.
• Iran will reopen the Straits of Hormuz for commercial shipping traffic immediately, though it is given 30 days to complete the removal of mines and other obstacles. The MOU commits Iran to keep the Strait open and toll-free for sixty days, the same period as the negotiation period for the final deal, but curiously does not link the two, leaving it open to interpretation what the status of this aspect of the agreement would be if, as expected, the negotiations taking longer than sixty days and the period is extended by mutual consent.
• A clause in the MOU committing both sides not to interfere in each other’s internal affairs would seem to be an official American abandonment of regime change in Iran as a political goal.
• The White House also released the full text of the MOU, something it had refused to do in recent days after it had already agreed to it but before the President signed it.
• The official text resembled the purported versions circulated by Iranian officials in the media over the past few days in most aspects, but with a few differences. The agreed text does not explicitly call for an Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon and does not allow (for now) Iran to charge tolls for the passage of commercial vessels through the Strait, despite rumours and Iranian claims to the contrary over the past week.
• Trump’s speech last night at the G7 was full of criticisms of Israel, its war in Lebanon, and Prime Minister Netanyahu. In this it continued a theme Trump has warmed to repeatedly in recent days.
• The President once more criticised Israel’s use of force in Lebanon, saying, “You don’t have to knock down a building every time somebody walks into it that’s from Hezbollah.”
• He unsubtly referred to Israel as “a very small partner,” though in this he was quoting something Prime Minister Netanyahu said to him.
• He also dug up an incident from the distant past, when, according to him, the US and Israel endeavoured to eliminate Qassem Soleimani in a joint operation in 2020, but at the last minute Prime Minister Netanyahu opted out of any Israeli involvement. Ultimately, the US successfully eliminated Soleimani on its own. Few in Israel regretted the elimiation and few regretted that Israel wasn’t directly involved.
• Though the diplomatic drama has put the war in Lebanon mostly on pause, it has not stopped it entirely. IDF soldiers moving on foot near the Litani River were hit by a Hezbollah IED yesterday. The device killed Master Sgt. Alexander Filin, a 29-year-old reservist from Haifa, and injured six others, including a female soldier and a deputy commander. Filin made aliyah from Ukraine as a teenager. In 2018, on the occasion of Israel’s 70th Independence Day, he was the recipient of the President’s Citation for Outstanding Soldiers for his courage in an incident where he successfully stopped a terrorist trying to carry out a stabbing attack.

Context: The agreement has almost universally been seen in Israel as a diplomatic and military catastrophe.

• Israel media commentary was scathing in its assessment of the agreement and of Prime Minister Netanyahu’s management of the war effort.
• Writing on the online news site Walla, Idan Kweller calls the agreement a “formative moment” in US-Israel relations. “This wasn’t Israel’s abandonment, but it definitely was a stern warning to Netanyahu. American support exists under the Trump administration, as long as Israel doesn’t stand in the way of clinching the larger deal.”
• In Haaretz, Amos Harel argues that “The Iran affair is emerging as the second worst fiasco in Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s long history, following Hamas’ massacre in southern Israel on October 7, 2023.”
• Avner Vilan, in a posted commentary on N12, wrote, “At best, we’ve bought ourselves an insanely expensive nuclear agreement, without missiles and without proxies [being included] and with endless Iranian immunity. At worst, we’ve given Iran a lifeline, while it has barely given anything at all in return. In both cases, the same question remains: Why did we start this to begin with?”
• Most Israeli analysts doubt that Iran and the US can actually come to a final agreement within 60 days — or at all, even with the deadline being extended. In such a scenario, Iran would not be able to enjoy significant sanctions relief and would probably not be able to see the promised relief fund of some $300 billion get off the ground, but it would begin recovering frozen assets and it would start selling oil, even if only to countries outside the direct US orbit. This would allow it to rapidly rebuild the defence facilities that it lost in the war and to reflate its economy, removing the main source of domestic pressure on the regime.
• Even if negotiations did seem to be making serious progress, Iran could presumably threaten to close the Straits once more or attempt to reach an arrangement with the Omanis about “service fees,” as long as that was after 60 days — a deadline no one believes can be met anyway.

Looking ahead: US-led efforts to reach an agreement between Lebanon and Israel continue apace.

• President Trump’s remarks earlier this week about having Syria, under its post-Assad regime, take responsibility for fighting Hezbollah rattled Israelis, Lebanese, and for that matter, Syrians too. Israeli media reported that the new Mossad head Roman Gofman suggested to the Cabinet taking the proposal seriously, but was overruled by Prime Minister Netanyahu.
• Meanwhile, a quiet effort is underway to arrange a public meeting between Prime Minister Netanyahu and Lebanese President Joseph Aoun in Washington, possibly with the participation of President Trump too.

What’s happened: Iran fired ten missiles at northern Israel yesterday evening, acting on its threat to retaliate for an Israeli strike on Beirut.

• Early this morning, the Israeli Air Force struck military and infrastructure targets across western and central Iran, including radars and anti-aircraft batteries, which will help facilitate operational freedom moving forward.
• A single ballistic missile was fired by the Houthis in Yemen at central Israel at around 6:00 local time this morning. Iran then fired a number of missiles at central Israel roughly an hour later. All of the incoming projectiles were intercepted by IDF air-defence systems.
• Prime Minister Netanyahu and President Trump spoke yesterday in the aftermath of Iran’s first missile barrage on northern Israel. According to Israeli media reports Trump said that he believes that Israel had “retaliated enough and should not retaliate further.”
• Earlier Trump said in an interview to the Financial Times that Netanyahu would have no choice but to accept a deal with Iran. He stressed that he is the one who makes the decisions, not Netanyahu.
• IDF Spokesperson Brig. Gen. Defrin said, “The regime is trying to create a new equation, when it directly fires at our territory in response to IDF attacks on the Dahiya Quarter. We will not allow this. We attacked the Dahiya Quarter following Hezbollah’s endless fire on communities in northern Israel. The IDF will continue to operate throughout Lebanon and will intensify its strikes on the Hezbollah terrorist organisation. We will not allow fire to continue at the citizens of the State of Israel.”
• Earlier on Sunday morning, Hezbollah fired rockets at northern Israeli communities for the first time in four days. Two rockets that were fired at Ramot Naftali and Yiftah were intercepted.

Reactions: Domestically the Israeli government faced more criticism.

• Leader of the Together Party Bennett said, “This is a test moment: is Israel a sovereign country that is capable of defending itself? Countenancing or a token response will signal to the enemy that our citizens’ blood has been made forfeit. That is why Israel must act powerfully and effectively. On this issue, all of us, all citizens of Israel, stand together.”
• Yisrael Beiteinu leader Liberman also called for powerful Israeli retaliation: “Enough with the containment. We have to respond immediately and to strike Iran’s strategic infrastructure.”
• The Democrats leader Golan said, “Our enemies see what everyone sees: Netanyahu is weak. Despite the military achievements, our enemies see that Netanyahu is a weak and failed leader. They see the string of failures, the political indecision and the personal politics that have been running the war—and they have concluded that Netanyahu is weak and that we can be attacked.”
• Blue and White leader Gantz said, “The fighting in Lebanon should never have been stopped as part of the ceasefire with Iran. That strategic mistake needs to be corrected with powerful retaliation in Iran, but equally important, with ongoing attacks on the Dahiya.”

Context: There is a consensus in Israel that Iran cannot be allowed to create a new equation that Israeli action in Lebanon elicits an attack from Iran.

• This explicit linkage did not exist before the war that began three months ago, and despite forty days of bombardment, Israel is concerned that at the current juncture Iran appears to be emboldened. This is partly explained by Trump’s apparent eagerness to do a deal that has allowed Iran to exert further demands.
• Israel is well disposed to reach a ceasefire with Lebanon and even an eventual peace agreement, but the stranglehold that Iran maintains through Hezbollah has to be broken first. At the end of last week the US government announced an agreed ceasefire between Israel and the Lebanese government however shortly afterwards Hezbollah rejected the agreement.                  
• For weeks Israel had restrained itself from striking Hezbollah assets in Beirut – at Trump’s request. However after the latest barrage of rockets and drones on northern Israel over the weekend and two more IDF fatalities in southern Lebanon, Israel did respond by targeting a Hezbollah command centre in Beirut.
• In the Israeli assessment there remain over 2,000 Hezbollah fighters in southern Lebanon. Until they are removed Israel will feel compelled to continue its operations in the area.
• Israeli attention also remains focused on the ongoing negotiations between the US and Iran, despite not being part of the process. While Israel will be sensitive to US demands, it is perturbed by the non-responses from Gulf states have had to absorb ongoing strikes from Iran. That is an unacceptable situation from Israel’s perspective.
• Iran was possibly working on the assumption that as Trump wants a deal, he will therefore restrain Israel from resuming attacks. Israel for its part needs to mark out space from the US position, as it has a duty to defend its citizens from attack.

Looking ahead: Israel’s security cabinet will meet shortly and discuss the next operational steps.

• The IDF remains on high alert and preparing for several days of clashes. As part of the preparation it is planning to mobilise a large number of reservists and to deploy reinforcements along all the borders.
• A Houthi spokesperson has threatened to stop Israeli maritime traffic in the Red Sea.

What’s happened: On a backdrop of negotiations for a comprehensive US-Iran agreement, low intensity exchanges of fire continued in the last day.

• US forces fired at a Botswana-flagged tanker that was heading toward Kharg Island in violation of the US-imposed blockade of Iranian ports. The tanker’s engine was disabled in the attack.
• Following that incident, Iran launched several drones at US bases in Kuwait and Bahrain. According to American sources, the drones fired at Kuwait “fell short or broke apart” and the ones fired at Bahrain were successfully intercepted.
• The US subsequently responded by striking an Iranian military facility on Qeshm Island.
• There were no rocket attacks on Israel’s north overnight, as a tense ceasefire held.
• Over recent days, Hezbollah had expanded the range of its attacks on Israel as well as keeping up a steady stream of drone attacks on IDF positions in southern Lebanon.
• An imminent attack on a Hezbollah stronghold was reportedly called off at the last minute at the insistence of the Trump administration which pressured both sides to cease fire in the last 24 hours so as not to threaten the ongoing US-Iran talks.
• The Israeli Government yesterday approved a plan for a massive investment in Israel’s battered northern communities. The plan would allocate 13 billion shekels (about £3.4 billion) in addition to the already approved 7 billion shekels from earlier decisions (about £1.8). The money will go to reconstruction, grants to small business owners, wage subsidies for hi-tech firms based in the north, and several headline projects in the Kiryat Shmona, including establishing an emergency medical facility there and a partial relocation of the nearby Tel Hai Academic College into the city itself.
• Seated next to Kiryat Shemona’s mayor, Prime Minister Netanyahu spelled out the goals of the new investment plan, and said that his Government “is committed not only to the development of the North, but also to ensuring the security of the residents. There is no containment or leniency; we are acting against every threat in real-time.”
• The new chief of Israel’s Mossad officially entered office yesterday. Roman Gofman, a major General in reserves who previously served as Prime Minister Netanyahu’s military secretary assumed his new position after the Supreme Court rejected petitions against his appointment.
• At the ceremony yesterday, Prime Minister Netanyahu noted the Mossad’s central role in Israel’s longstanding conflict with Iran, saying that it “will continue to stand at the forefront of our struggle against Iran’s aggression. In continuation of the consistent policy we have been leading for years – we will not allow the Iranian regime to turn back the clock. We will not allow it to acquire nuclear weapons; we will not allow it to threaten our existence. This terrorist regime, which is destined to vanish from the world, and we will help it reach this goal, this regime will no longer threaten us with nuclear bombs and thousands of lethal ballistic missiles.”

Context: Though the US and Iran have not yet concluded an agreement that would definitively end the war which began on February 28 this year, both sides appear to believe an agreement is in reach. This was the main reason why an Iranian threat to quit the talks unless the US could force Israel to scale back its attacks was taken so seriously by the Trump administration.

• The administration not only pressured Israel to back down from a planned strike agains Hezbollah targets in Beirut, it also leaked the contents of several tense phone calls between President Trump and Prime Minister Netanyahu.
• There were conflicting reports about what the planned strike was supposed to look like and what Trump and Netanyahu had agreed to beforehand. According to one report in Israeli media, the evacuation order for the Dahiya district in Beirut, a Hezbollah stronghold, was issued in line with an agreement between the two leaders that Israel would threaten to attack the Dahiya but not actually carry out the threat, the idea being that an imminent strike would pressure Hezbollah to agree to cease its attacks.
• At some point after the evacuation began, the Trump administration came under the impression that Israel was planning on going through with the strike and not just bluffing as had been agreed upon, and this is what led to the tense phone call between the President and the Prime Minister.
• Israeli decision-makers are concerned that the emerging deal looks similar to the understandings that held during the 1990s, under which Israel was only allowed to respond with significant military strikes if its cities in the north were attacked, while its options for military action in response to attacks on its soldiers in southern Lebanon were extremely limited.
• In the last seven years of the Security Zone (1993-2000), this understanding of the “rules of the game” led to many IDF casualties without the IDF having any real leverage over the Lebanese state or Hezbollah itself to stop them. It is particularly concerning now as Hezbollah has been able to use FPV drones to sustain a level of casualties on the Israeli side that is actually considerably higher than anything it did in the days of the unlamented Security Zone (1985-2000).
• The leaked content of tense phone calls between Trump and Netanyahu reverberated in Israeli domestic politics too. Israeli politicians and media figures, not all associated with the right, criticised the Prime Minister for capitulating to the President’s demands and not following through on his threat to attack the Dahiya. Others noted that Israel has so tightly bound itself to Trump that it has lost any freedom of action.
• It was not lost on domestic commentators that Trump explicitly invoked Netanyahu’s legal troubles as a lever of pressure on him. That he was willing to raise the topic and take credit for keeping Netanyahu out of jail (“You’d be in prison if it weren’t for me. I’m saving your ass,” Trump was reported as having said to the Prime Minster) is one thing. That someone at the White House choose to include those quotes in leaks about the phone call is even graver, both from the perspective of the Prime Minister himself and the entire political system, already wound up for an upcoming election where the question of the Prime Minister’s capacity to manage Israel’s multi-front wars while on trial for corruption is a major issue.

Looking ahead: The fourth round of talks between representatives of Israel and Lebanon are due to continue today in Washington. The US will reportedly propose a plan where the US will directly train Lebanese Armed Forces to deal with Hezbollah and carry out any disarmament agreed to in the talks.

• Another idea to be raised in the talks is the creation of “pilot zones,” which would be designated blocks of territory where Israeli troops would withdraw and hand over the territory directly to the LAF. Assuming Hezbollah is prevented from reestablishing its presence in the pilot zones, these could be multiplied and expanded.

What’s happened: President Trump and Prime Minister Netanyahu spoke on Monday night, in what Trump described as a “very productive call” to discuss the latest developments in Lebanon and the region.

• Trump continued on his Truth Social post, “there will be no Troops going to Beirut, and any Troops that are on their way, have already been turned back. Likewise, through highly placed Representatives, I had a very good call with Hezbollah, and they agreed that all shooting will stop – That Israel will not attack them, and they will not attack Israel.”
• Following the call Prime Minister Netanyahu said, “I spoke this evening with President Trump and told him that if Hezbollah does not stop firing at our cities and citizens – Israel will strike terrorist targets in Beirut. This position of ours remain unchanged. Concurrently, the IDF will continue to operate as planned in southern Lebanon.”
• However  it appears that Israel cancelled the strikes on Beirut, hours after Prime Minister Netanyahu and Defence Minister Katz announced that they instructed the IDF to strike Hezbollah targets in Dahiya in southern Beirut.
• US media described their conversation as “fraught.” According to Axios, “Trump’s anger appeared to be driven by the fact that Netanyahu’s decision to escalate in Lebanon was threatening to implode his negotiations with Iran.” Trump reportedly said  to Netanyahu, “You’re fucking crazy. You’d be in prison if it weren’t for me. I’m saving your ass. Everybody hates you now. Everybody hates Israel because of this.”
• In domestic Israeli politics the bill to dissolve the Knesset was carried in its first reading last night by a majority vote of 106 MKs. No one voted against.

Context: Despite a declared ceasefire the fighting has continued. Last night around 20 rockets were fired last out of Lebanon into northern Israel.

• A drone that infiltrated the western Galilee exploded in a military area. No one was injured.However, once more an explosive drone targeted and killed an IDF officer inside southern Lebanon. Cpt. Dr. Ori Yosef Silvester a thirty year old doctor of the Givati Brigade. Seven IDF soldiers were wounded in the attack, which was carried out by multiple drones not far from the Beaufort Castle. Three were hospitalised in serious condition.
• This morning the Israeli Air Force struck various Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon.  
• Earlier on Monday, Netanyahu had declared, “There will not be a situation in which Hezbollah attacks our cities and our citizens, and its terrorist headquarters in Beirut, in Dahiya, remains out of bounds. We are continuing to deepen our operational activity on the ground in southern Lebanon and are eliminating Hezbollah strongholds. Hezbollah is on the run. We are determined to restore security to the residents of the north, just as we did for the residents of the south.”
• These comments elicited criticism from within the security establishment that felt the premature pronouncement served as an early warning to senior Hezbollah figures, allowing them to hide or disperse.      
• Trump’s intervention was also the second time that the IDF turned planes around on his instruction while they were en-route to a strategic strike. Last time it was Tehran (in June 2025), this time it was Beirut.
• Prior to the Trump – Netanyahu call, Iran threatened to attack Israel and “advised” residents of northern Israel to leave the area should Beirut be attacked.
• The public announcements on both sides appear to play into Iran’s hands as they successfully maintain the linkage between fighting in Lebanon and their negotiations with the US.
• Israel apparent u-turn led to criticism across the board, with politicians posting on social media:
  • Minister Ben Gvir wrote, “Mr. Prime Minister, you said that a strong prime minister says ‘yes’ to the president of the United States when possible and ‘no’ when necessary. Now is the time to tell our friend, President Trump, ‘no.’ Now is the time to do what needs and must be done to strike at Hezbollah, to unfetter our troops and to restore security to the north.”
  • Leader of the Opposition Lapid wrote, “A client state in full.”
  • Yisrael Beiteinu Chairman Liberman wrote, “This isn’t a prime minister—this is a puppet!”
  • Yashar Chairman Eisenkot, “Never has there been an Israeli prime minister who has submissively accepted a demand like this, which is patently unreasonable!   Hezbollah is an enemy in Beirut’s Dahiya and in Baalbek, we need to strike Hezbollah in every place where it is deployed, and not to tie the IDF’s hands.” Adding, “What Netanyahu, the cabinet and the security cabinet are doing today is damaging to the State of Israel’s national interests out of weakness. And don’t let them tell you stories about the connection to the United States’ negotiations with Iran. Lebanon is here, Metula is taking fire, Israeli communities are empty and that is unconscionable. And the person who is doing that is the man who preached morality to everyone about the fundamental need as prime minister to say ‘no’ to the president of the United States when the State of Israel’s interests are being damaged.”
• Due to the Trump – Netanyahu call the ceremony for new head of Mossad was postponed to today. Earlier in the day the High Court of Justice rejected petitions calling for the cancelling of Roman Gofman’s appointment. The court determined two-to-one that although there were failures with how Gofman handled a controversial incident from 2022, he did not deliberately mislead an investigation into the affair or abandon Ori Elmakayes, the individual at the centre of the allegations against Gofman. 

Looking ahead: Gofman is set to replace outgoing Mossad chief Barnea in a ceremony later today.

• The bill to disperse the Knesset now returns to the Knesset House Committee for further preparation ahead of its second and third readings. The coalition parties have agreed that the general election would be held at some point between September 8 and October 20, though no final date has been set yet. In practical  terms, only the option of holding the election on September 1 was removed from the agenda.

What’s happened: Hezbollah has sharply escalated its attacks on communities in northern Israel over the past few days.

• On Monday, the group fired more than 30 explosive drones at Israeli towns and outposts along the border and at IDF forces operating inside southern Lebanon. The attacks triggered repeated sirens, forcing civilians into shelters, and wounded troops.  One missile fired at the Galilee was intercepted by the Iron Dome system. Two drones hit a house in Metula, and a military site. Approximately 20 drones infiltrated Israeli territory, two hitting a building that houses foreign workers in Shtula.
• Two more IDF soldiers were killed in an explosive drones trikes. On Friday, Staff Sgt. Noam Hamburger, a 23-year-old from Atlit, and on Sunday, Sgt. Nehorai Lazer, a 19-year-old resident of Eilat.
• In response, the IDF reports striking more than 70 Hezbollah infrastructure sites across Lebanon, including roughly 10 command centres and weapons warehouses in the city of Tyre and other areas of southern Lebanon and the Beqaa Valley. The IDF described the targeted sites as having been used by Hezbollah to plan and execute attacks against Israeli civilians and IDF forces.
• The air force also struck Hezbollah operatives riding motorcycles in sectors where Israeli troops are deployed, as part of a broader effort to degrade the group’s mobility and targeting capability.
• Prime Minister Netanyahu declared that Israeli forces have eliminated over 600 Hezbollah operatives in recent weeks and vowing to maintain and increase pressure. Addressing the residents of the north, he stressed their resilience and said Israel will “hit them head on” and overcome the drone threat.
• In a video, Netanyahu said “We aren’t lifting our foot off the [gas] pedal. To the contrary, I told [the IDF] to press even harder on the pedal. We will strike them. It’s true, they’re firing drones, fiber-optic drones, at us. We have a special team that is working on that, and we’ll solve that too.”

Context: The escalation in Lebanon coincides with the continued diplomatic efforts by the US to reach a comprehensive agreement with Iran. Iran continues to insist on the linkage that any ceasefire includes Lebanon.

• There is broad concern that with Israel not part of the negotiations, the country is reliant on US backing. This was reiterated by US Secretary of State Rubio who told reporters on Monday that “Israel always has a right to protect itself…If Hezbollah is going to launch missiles or launches missiles at them, Israel has every right to respond to that, or to prevent that from happening. That’s always been understood. It’s being understood during the ceasefire.”
• Overall Israel’s current approach in Lebanon is a mix of:
  • Sustained strikes and targeted operations aimed at degrading Hezbollah’s command, logistics, and drone infrastructure.
  • Operational containment along the border.
  • Diplomatic efforts through  talks in Washington with representatives of the Lebanese government.  
• Since the ceasefire in mid-April it is estimated Hezbollah has fired more than 1,000 drones and around 700 rockets. Eleven Israelis have been killed and dozens injured.
• At the same time, Israel has retrained from expanding  ground offensive or striking Beirut.    
• IDF Northern Command describes Hezbollah’s repeated drone attacks on towns such as Metula and Shomera as having crossed an unacceptable red line.
• Hezbollah’s decision to intensify its drone and rocket fire on northern Israel reflects a strategy of calibrated escalation in which they press their tactical advantage through the continued use of drones. Rather than trying to defeat Israel outright, Hezbollah aims to wear the IDF down through constant small-scale attacks.
• Last night, the group released video footage demonstrating that it has drones fitted with thermal cameras, which would allow it to carry out nighttime drone strikes as well.
• On the ground, Hezbollah have also resorted to traditional guerilla tactics. Some senior commanders see a similarity with the old Hezbollah terror cells of the 1990s before they became a sophisticated military. All this demonstrates that Hezbollah can still operate effectively despite incurring heavy losses.
• Until a few days ago, Hezbollah focused its operations on IDF troops in southern Lebanon but has now begun to attack IDF outposts in Israel itself.
• The IDF, meanwhile, is shifting from treating drones as a tactical nuisance to a strategic threat. The drone campaign has forced changes in operational rhythms, slowed the pace of village clearing, and pushed many activities to night‑time operations to reduce exposure.
• A holistic solution does not yet exist to cope with Hezbollah fibre optic, First Person View (FPV) drones. Israel is rapidly exploring anti-drone technologies including nets, lasers, precision-fire systems, radar, acoustic sensors, and microwave weapons, but no comprehensive solution yet exists, as the war in Ukraine has demonstrated.  
• Israel’s key challenge remains to protect residents in northern Israel from being held in a state of prolonged insecurity. The longer the attacks continue, mounting questions arise as to whether this can be achieved militarily.    
• For the international community, the question is whether diplomatic efforts can produce a framework that strengthens the Lebanese state, constrains Hezbollah, and gives Israel a more predictable security environment along the border.

Looking ahead: As a result of the increased attacks schools near the northern border will not open today.

• Senior IDF officials have presented a range of options to the security cabinet to approve a wider campaign inside Lebanon. They say that the current level of firepower is insufficient to fully deter Hezbollah’s stand‑off fire. The IDF is also working on plans to target Hezbollah’s drone‑infrastructure array as well as potentially target more of their senior commanders.

What’s happened: Another IDF officer was killed in combat with Hezbollah in southern Lebanon yesterday. Maj. (res.) Itamar Sapir from the settlement Eli was 27 years old. His unit was operating in the Lebanese village of Qouza when a Hezbollah gunman surprised the forces by exiting the village church and opening fire.

• Israeli Navy troops completed the interception of the flotilla to Gaza and placed all 430 activists on board Israeli vessels. Around fifty vessels were boarded and are presently en route to the port of Ashdod, where the activists will be detained before deportation. Israeli officials were keen to point out the absence of actual aid onboard the ships.
• A report in The New York Times based largely on anonymous American claimed that Israel and the United States sought to install former Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as leader of Iran in a complex and ultimately unsuccessful effort to topple the Iranian regime in the initial days of the war earlier this year.
• The article detailed how an air strike that appeared to miss Ahmadinejad right after the war broke out on February 28 had in fact successfully taken out the IRGC forces who were enforcing his informal house arrest.
• The article hinted heavily that Ahmadinejad had been in contact with Israeli intelligence before the war broke out, citing an investigation in New Lines magazine, an outlet that is widely seen as a pro-Qatari organ (though not identified as such in The New York Times article).
• Ahmadinejad’s record of anti-Israel provocations and Holocaust denial would make him an astonishing partner, to say the least. And it is always possible (though, again, not mentioned in the article), that such a leak is deliberately designed to scuttle his political standing in Iran and increase regime paranoia about its penetration by Israeli intelligence.

Context: The losses of IDF soldiers in southern Lebanon, particularly in the context of the “ceasefire,” are taking a toll on morale both in public opinion and in the IDF. Soldiers and officers express mounting frustration with the terms of the ceasefire which, informally, restrict offensive Israel action outside of Israel’s zone of control in southern Lebanon, while leaving soldiers there exposed to Hezbollah fire. Hezbollah arms depots and senior leaders are mostly north of the Litani River, where the IDF has largely refrained from action in keeping with US requests not to disrupt the negotiations with Iran.

• Twenty-two Israelis have been killed in Lebanon since the war began on March 2. Eight have been killed since the ceasefire was announced on April 16.
• The Lebanese Health Ministry reported earlier this week that the death toll in Lebanon from the renewed fighting with Israel since March has now topped 3,000. The official figures do not distinguish between combatant and noncombatant casualties, but they do include 292 women and 211 children. With 83% of the reported fatalities comprising adult men. This would indicate a low level of civilian casualties in the war so far. Israeli officials believe the Lebanese figure may be an undercount as not all Hezbollah fatalities are  reported to Lebanese officials.
• The ceasefire which brought an end to high-intensity hostilities on April 16 was originally set to last ten days. It was informally renewed to allow further negotiations, while its scope was also informally narrowed by all sides. The renewed ceasefire was due to expire May 17, but just before that deadline, a US-brokered agreement between Lebanon and Israel formally extended the ceasefire by another 45 days, bringing its scheduled expiration up to July 1. Observers on all sides are sceptical it could hold up if fighting resumes in the Iranian theatre.
• A resumption of active combat in the Iranian theatre will presumably end those restrictions and free Israeli forces to take more aggressive action against Hezbollah targets deep in Lebanon. But there are two countervailing implications to this:
  • First, Israel’s north will presumably once more come under massive Hezbollah rocket fire — and this at a time when Israeli officials are determined not to repeat what is widely seen as the mistake of mass evacuations which happened in 2023-2024.
  • Second, the IAF will be busy hitting targets in Iran and have fewer planes and munitions to set aside for the Lebanese theatre.
• President Trump’s statement on Monday that “a very major attack” had been postponed at the last minute this week at the request of three US Gulf allies — Qatar, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia — prompted a renewed interest in the conflicting desires of these countries. The claim itself was met with a mix of confirmation, denial, and some scepticism. Competing explanations  were offered including speculation that data-sharing from Russia and China to Iran meant that much of the attack had to be reconsidered, and that this could have been a bigger reason for the delay.
• Israeli analysts frequently point to the divergent messages Gulf leaders give in public and in private on the Iran issue.
  • Publicly, they all favour continuing the diplomatic track and view any US or Israeli military operation as destabilising.
  • Privately, they are reported to support a decisive blow the Islamist regime.
• Some grumble that the status quo, with no diplomatic settlement and no open conflict, is actually the worst for them as they pay a high economic and political cost for the parallel blockades imposed on either side of the Hormuz Strait by Iran and the United States.
• Among the Gulf countries are competing interests and differing geographies at stake as well. Qatar is in a uniquely difficult position geographically, with no outlet to global shipping that doesn’t go through Hormuz. Both the UAE and the Saudis have alternative sea outlets as well as pipeline infrastructure to serve them. The Emiratis have two ports on the Gulf of Oman, and the Saudis have a massive port on the country’s west coast along the Red Sea.

Looking ahead: Both Israel and the United States appeared making final preparations for a renewal of hostiles in Iran as negotiations through Pakistani mediation showed no sign of a breakthrough.

• Speaking to reporters, President Trump said that Iran had “a limited period of time” to conclude an agreement with the US before he would order renewed attacks. “Two or three days. Maybe Friday, Saturday, Sunday. Maybe early next week,” he said, adding “I hope we don’t have to do the war, but we may have to give them another big hit. I’m not sure yet. You’ll know very soon.”
• In Israel meanwhile, the Prime Minister held an unusually long five-hour meeting with defence and security chiefs on Monday to discuss Israeli preparations for a US-led strike and it implications for Israel. Netanyahu’s testimony in his ongoing corruption trial, scheduled for today, was cancelled without any opposition from the prosecution or judges.
• President Herzog also cancelled a scheduled trip to New York this week. And even the Herzliya Conference, an annual academic event billing many current and former security chiefs that was scheduled to take place has been abruptly postponed.