What’s happened: Missile attacks from Iran and rocket attacks from Lebanon continued to strike Israeli cities and towns overnight and this morning. Injuries were reported in Kafr Qassem, a large Arab town in central Israel northeast of Tel Aviv, as well as in Shaar Shomron, a small West Bank settlement, and Kiryat Bialik, a suburb of Haifa, from Iranian illegal cluster munitions.

• In the past 24 hours  Hezbollah launched approximately 600 rockets, drones, and mortars toward Israel and IDF soldiers operating  in southern Lebanon.
• Israel’s offensive in Lebanon and Iran continued, even as diplomatic developments lead to changing target priorities on both fronts.
  • An IDF soldier was killed and another was wounded in a firefight in southern Lebanon. Staff Sgt. Ori Greenberg, 21, of the Golani Brigade’s Reconnaissance Unit was killed in an exchange of fire with Hezbollah guerrillas in southern Lebanon early this morning.
  • The IDF reports that several Hezbollah fighters were killed in the operation without giving an exact number. The IDF also released footage this morning of the demolition of a Hezbollah command centre as well as a weapons depot that were both destroyed in an operation by carried out by the Golani Brigade.
  • The IDF also reported this morning that it had successfully eliminated the commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy, Alireza Tangsiri in Bandar Abbas, the Iranian port on the northern side of the Strait of Hormuz. Tangsiri was the man responsible for the closure of the Strait, which has been the one significant Iranian tactical success in the war so far.
  • The IDF also struck major naval and aerial weapons development sites in Iran yesterday, with particular emphasis on sites in Isfahan. The strikes included Iran’s Underwater Research Centre in Isfahan, the only facility in Iran for the design and development of submarines and support systems for the Iranian Navy.
• The US reported that as of yesterday it had hit 10,000 targets in Iran so far. The number did not include targets hit by Israel.
• Iran publicly rejected the US 15-point plan for ending the war. The proposal was conveyed to Iran by Pakistan, and was believed to offer sanctions relief in exchange for major Iranian concessions on its nuclear programme, ballistic missile programme, support for regional proxies, and the ongoing Iranian blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
• In anticipation of a possible US invasion of its strategically important Kharg Island, Iran made several dramatic threats yesterday against the US and its allies. Military officials threatened to target shipping in the Red Sea — something that Iran would be unlikely to pull off on its own, but would indicate the entry into the conflict of its proxy militia in Yemen, the Houthis.
• Iran also claimed that an unnamed Gulf state was planning on joining the US in an invasion of Kharg, and threatened to attack vital infrastructure in that unnamed country if such an invasion were to be launched.
• In Kuwait, six men were arrested over an alleged Hezbollah plot to assassinate Kuwaiti leaders. According to Kuwaiti reports, fourteen more members of the terror cell managed to flee the country before arrest.

Context: Though the positions of the US and Iran are still miles apart, Israeli officials take very seriously the possibility that the US will declare a ceasefire as early as this weekend. This possibility has several implications for how Israel conducts its offensive in the coming days.

• The choice of targets in Iran being hit by the Israeli Air Force has shifted this week to largely military targets, with much less emphasis on regime targets. What this means practically is that Israel is using what might be a limited and closing window of opportunity to degrade as much as possible Iran’s capacity to store, manufacture, or develop weapons that would serve it in future rounds of fighting.
• At the same time, the Israel has scaled back the strikes against Basij and other targets that would weaken the regime and making cracking down on a new uprising after a ceasefire harder. This could either be because of an assessment that the regime is now stable, or that the effort expended on each Basij strike — for example, taking out one checkpoint — is far too high relative to the benefit. If it is really the case that the war could be ending before a decisive blow is delivered to the regime, Israeli decision makers might calculate that it is best to use the time remaining to weaken Iran’s capacity to attack Israel in the future.
• The possibility of a ceasefire also affects Israel’s calculations in Lebanon. Israel has thus far refrained from a large land operation in Lebanon, though it has moved limited forces in and established strongpoints beyond those that were left from the 2024 ceasefire. With most of the Lebanon offensive thus far having been an Air Force operation, and the Air Force needed to put in the final blows in Iran, the Lebanon offensive has been, in the last two days at least, pushed down the priority list.
• There is also a debate in Israel about striking major infrastructure targets in Iran, with serious consideration being given to pushing that before a ceasefire is implemented. The perception in Iran that the Islamic regime has won the war is not just propaganda, but appears to reflect how Iranian officials genuinely believe events have unfolded. To this end, Israeli decision makers, together with many in the Gulf countries too, believe that only significant damage to Iranian energy infrastructure can change that perception, with all the anticipated effects both regionally and domestically.

Looking ahead: Major diplomatic efforts are underway to reach an agreement between Iran and the United States that would bring an end to the current war.

• Egypt, Turkey, and Pakistan have positioned themselves as mediators between the two warring parties. Oman, which had mediated talks before the war broke out, has faded somewhat.
• Pakistani efforts have received the most public attention. There were conflicting reports yesterday that US Vice President JD Vance could be headed to Islamabad for indirect talks with the Iranians.
• Meanwhile, Pakistani officials claimed that they conveyed a request to Israel not to eliminate Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and its parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, so that the two men could conduct indirect talks with the US under Pakistani mediation. According to the same Pakistani officials, Israel acceded to the request.

What’s happened: A Hezbollah rocket killed an Israeli woman in northern Israel yesterday. Nuriel Dubin, aged 27, was in her car when a rocket struck the Mahanayim Junction. Her fiancé was injured in the attack. The two had met in the immediate aftermath of the October 7 attack when he was evacuated from his home to a hotel in the Kinneret area where she worked as a teacher.

• Since Hezbollah entered the war on March 2, the Iran-backed terrorist group in Lebanon has been launching an average of 150 rockets a day. Some of its barrages have been timed with Iranian missile attacks on Israel’s north as well. Over the same period, according to official Israeli figures, the IDF has killed 600 Hezbollah combatants, including 220 of the group’s elite Radwan Force.
• In the most significant diplomatic development on Israeli northern border, Lebanon has expelled the Iranian ambassador yesterday and withdrawn their own ambassador from Tehran. This a further escalation of tensions between the two countries, following the expulsion of Iranian military personnel last week.
• Following on the dramatic announcement by President Trump the day before to defer planned attacks on Iran’s energy infrastructure, the US yesterday conveyed to Iran a 15-point plan for ending the current war. The text of the plan has not been made public, but according to media reports, it goes far beyond a simple ceasefire and includes details regarding most of the outstanding issues that were being negotiated by the two sides in the weeks prior to the Israeli attacks on Iran in June 2025 and February 2026. These include not just the Iranian nuclear programme, but also the ballistic missile programme and Iran’s support for regional proxies.
• The plan was conveyed through Pakistan, which has emerged as a possible mediator between Iran and the United States, along with Oman, Egypt and Turkey. Notably, there has been no reported mediation role for Qatar, which has found itself on the receiving end of Iranian missile and drone attacks since the current war began.
• President Trump struck an optimistic note regarding the diplomatic process, noting that “we’re talking to the right people,” without revealing who those people were. He alluded cryptically to a significant Iranian concession, without saying what it was. “They gave us a present, and the present arrived today,” Trump said to reporters in the Oval Office. “I’m not going to tell you what that present is, but it was a very significant prize.” Pressed for more details, he would only say that it was “oil- and gas-related.” Other reports during the day indicated that Iran was considering opening the passage through the Straits of Hormuz to non-belligerent countries, something that if implemented would remove a major looming threat to global energy markets.
• With the US threat to attack energy infrastructure off the table until the end of trading this week, oil prices have fallen again to around $90 a barrel on global markets.
• More details were reported today regarding Israel’s air strike on Iran’s Caspian port Bandar Anzali last Wednesday. Satellite images show significant damage to Iran’s naval headquarters and numerous destroyed naval vessels. The IAF hit dozens of targets including warships, a port, a command centre and a shipyard used to repair and maintain vessels. The attack hobbled a smuggling route that was crucial for both Iranian and Russian war efforts and sanctions evasion.
• Meanwhile, the UK has offered to host a security summit about opening the Strait of Hormuz.

Context: The exact text of the American 15-point proposal is unknown.

• However, it  is believed to contain some of the following conditions:
  • Three main nuclear sites in Iran would be dismantled.
  • All enrichment activities in Iran would be banned.
  • The ballistic missile programme would be suspended.
  • Support for regional proxies would be curbed.
  • The Strait of Hormuz would be fully reopened.
  • Sanctions related to Iran’s nuclear programme would be lifted. Sanctions connected to human rights abuses would stay in place.
  • The United States would provide direct assistance for Iran’s civilian nuclear programme, while also monitoring it.
• It is unclear what the US propose to do with the 450kg of highly enriched uranium (HEU), and whether they will seek to remove it or dilute it.
• The Iranians have also made a list of demands for an agreement with the US. Some of them would be extraordinary gains for Iran even if the war had been characterised by stunning Iranian military successes, which it decidedly has not been. These demands include:
  • Turning the Strait of Hormuz into an Iranian-managed passageway where Iran would collect fees, similar to the Suez Canal — though of course, the Suez Canal artificial and located inside Egypt and the Strait of Hormuz in an international waterway.
  • Guarantees that neither Israel nor the US could attack Iran again, together with a guarantee that Israel could not attack Lebanon.
  • The lifting of all sanctions on Iran, not just those related to the nuclear programme.
  • Permitting Iran to keep and develop ballistic missiles with no limitations.
• Israeli officials remain sceptical regarding the prospects of an agreement along the lines of either proposal. To the extent one can be reached, Israel is concerned that the implementation will run along the lines of ceasefires with Hamas and Hezbollah, with the major steps called for in the beginning carried out in full, but with the provisions regarding disarmament dragging on to the point where attention lags, urgency fades, and the threat to renew hostilities in light of violations becomes ineffective.

Looking ahead: In the meantime, US continues to move Marines and airborne forces into the theatre of conflict, raising the possibility of a limited land manoeuvre either on Kharg Island or on shore of the Hormuz Strait. 3,000 troops are reported to have arrived already. 2,200 more Marines are due on Friday.

• Even a successful agreement on Iran won’t necessarily end the current fighting in Lebanon where Israel has yet to embark on a large land offensive. Israel destroyed five more bridges of the Litani River over the past 48 hours, and according to Defence Minister Katz, “the IDF will control the remaining bridges and the security zone up to the Litani.”

What’s happened: Two Israelis, an elderly couple in their 70’s, were killed in an Iranian missile attack on Ramat Gan overnight. The couple were at home during the attack, but did not manage to make it to the safe room in their apartment in time. The missile fired at central Israel contained a cluster munition, which splits into multiple small explosives distributed over a broad area. Its use over an urban area, targeting civilians is a war crime.

• An Israeli air strike eliminated Irans’s Supreme National Security Council Secretary Ali Larijani, who had been functioning as Iran’s de facto wartime leader. He was killed in a strike on a safe house in a suburb of Tehran.
• At the same time, a separate attack targeted a meeting of top commanders of the notorious Basij, the regime’s internal security force largely responsible for the massacre of tens of thousands of Iranian protesters in January. This strike eliminated at least ten senior Basij commanders, including the force’s top commander Gholamreza Reza Soleimani and his deputy, Rasem Qureishi.
• A later strike targeted Iran’s intelligence minister, Esmaeil Khatib. This morning, Israel’s Defence Minister Katz announced that Khatib, whose ministry supported global terrorism as well brutal domestic repression, was eliminated. 
• Hezbollah launched another massive barrage of rockets on northern Israel last night, similar to the one it launched six days before. Like the March 11 attacks, this one involved about 200 rockets, many of which fell short and landed in Lebanon.
• Unlike on March 11, this time the Israeli Home Front Command did not wait until just one hour before to share with the public that an attack was planned. The attacks caused some limited damage but no injuries or deaths in Israel.
• In Gaza, an Israeli air strike killed Yahya Abu Labda, a commander in Hamas’s supply and logistics department who was responsible for advancing Hamas’ “precision missile project,” according the the IDF Spokesperson.

Context: Whilst the targeted eliminations at the beginning of the war demonstrated impressive intelligence penetration, it also relied on the element of surprise. The strikes against the top brass of the Iranian security apparatus yesterday and overnight show the dynamic capability of Israeli intelligence to be able to locate high value targets, even when they know they are being targeted.

• Israeli analysts have noted that the elimination of Ali Larijani may be even more significant than that of the Supreme Leader, as it was Larijani that was a more hands on decision maker and more central both to the war and the repression of Iranian protestors.  
• Israeli officials hold out two metrics for assessing damage to the IRGC in general and the Basij in particular. First, they look to see whether command and control is disrupted. Second, they look for defections.
• On the first measure there appears to be broad success. Giving orders and responding to tactical developments is becoming increasingly impossible for Iranian armed forces of all kinds.
• On the second measure, nothing has moved yet. No prominent defections have been recorded. No senior officials have sought refuge in neighbouring countries. And despite scattered media reports which may themselves be psychological warfare, there are no significant incidents of forces abandoning post or laying down arms.
• A report in The Guardian yesterday suggests that the UK national security adviser Jonathan Powell had attended some of the indirect talks conducted between the US and Iran before the war began on February 28. However, according to Bloomberg, Downing Street has denied that Powell was present at the negotiations.
• The Guardian report aimed to present the Iranian position as moderate, compromising, and “surprisingly” reasonable. However, even the most generous interpretation of the last Iranian offer would have left it with nuclear capabilities far beyond any of the red lines set by the Americans.
• Moreover, the Iranian offer contained nothing regarding the other issues which the US had put down as priorities for any kind of deal: the missile programme, Iran’s network of regional proxies, and its repression of anti-regime protests in January.
• The bit of The Guardian which made the biggest splash (and was used to promote it on social media) was a quote, initially attributed to Powell, that US negotiators Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff were “Israeli assets that dragged a president into a war he wants to get out of.” A corrected version of the article removed that attribution and instead attributed the quote to an unnamed diplomat from a Gulf country, the attribution the quote retains in a longer subsequent article the Guardian ran today, which once more prominently featured this assessment of the US negotiators.
• Regardless of the provenance of the quote, this description of Witkoff and Kushner is ironic from an Israeli perspective as throughout the entire lead up to the war, officials in Jerusalem regarded the two as the biggest obstacles to a firmer US line on Iran. Leaks from Israeli officials routinely derided both as desperate to reach a deal, even an inadequate one, with Tehran, while most Israelis were finding a more receptive opening with Secretaries Rubio and Hegseth.
• At the same time, both Kushner and Witkoff are Jewish. That a Gulf official would see two senior US officials who happen to be Jewish as “Israeli assets” driving America to a war it does’t want isn’t terribly surprising. That officials in Whitehall or editors at the Guardian see this not as a window into the prevailing views in the Arab world but rather as a deep revelation about what happened behind the scenes is, to say the least, a cause for concern.
• Insinuations about nefarious influence weren’t limited to the British left yesterday. A senior aide to Tulsi Gabbard, President Trump’s controversial Director of National Intelligence, Joe Kent resigned from the Trump Administration yesterday over his opposition to the war in Iran.
• Joe Kent’s appointment to the position last year was met with a great deal of opposition following his close associations with an assortment of neo-Nazis, white supremacists, and other far-right figures. His resignation letter, like the Guardian’s reporting, alleged that the United States were fighting the war in Iran for Israel and not for US interests.
• It further insinuated that both the war in Iraq two decade ago as well as the allied campaign against ISIS in the last decade — in which his wife, a naval intelligence officer, was killed — were both caused by Israel.
• In fact, Israel played no part in the Iraq War in 2003, and Israeli Prime Minister was later revealed to have privately warned the US against the war for fear that it might strengthen Iran. The campaign against ISIS too did not involve Israel in any way. At many points, in fact, Israel’s opposition to pro-Iranian forces in both Iraq and Syria led many commentators to (falsely) accuse Israel of supporting ISIS, making Kent’s accusation not just a lie, but a deeply ironic one.

Looking ahead: Despite a large call-up of reserves and frequent pronouncements by senior Israeli officials about an imminent ground operation in southern Lebanon, there has been so significant movement of the IDF across the border.

• In the background, several countries, including France among others, have floated proposals for negotiations between Jerusalem and Beirut for an agreement that would prevent an expanded war.
• It is unclear if any of these initiatives might lead to serious negotiations, and they are treated, in public at least, with great scepticism. At the same time, the large military offensive that was expected already last week has not been launched. Defence Minister Katz also alluded to more “significant surprises” to come.

What’s happened: The IDF announced this morning that it has expanded its ground operations in southern Lebanon.

• Three divisions are now operating in southern Lebanon, with more expected to join them. The IDF says it has struck about 1,000 Hezbollah targets since the start of the war, and has eliminated around 400 Hezbollah operatives.
• The IDF continues to carry out a large-scale attacks against Iranian regime infrastructure targets in Tehran and other parts of the country. On Sunday, the IDF struck 200 targets across western and central Iran. The focus continues to be the further degrading of ballistic missiles array and other military targets.  
• IDF Spokesperson Brig. Gen. Defrin told the Israeli public, “Our achievements are greater than we expected. The opening strike was very successful and consequently, so are our other attacks that have hit the Iranian regime. And we are intensifying the blow. Every day, the achievement increases and intensifies. And as a result, this is destabilising this regime. That is the reality. We are ahead of schedule.”
• Despite a relative decrease in Iranian attacks over the weekend, missile fire from Iran was resumed Sunday night. Air raid sirens were activated twice in Beer Sheva and its environs, in the Dead Sea area and in the Gaza periphery. No casualties were reported.
• In parallel Hezbollah continues its more intensive but short range attacks against northern Israel.  
• Kan News reported that at the end of last week, Hamas secretly sent a letter to the new Iranian leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, and urged him to launch an uncompromising multi-theatre war. Hamas further committed not relinquish its arms, and called to activate all the theatres of the axis of resistance, including Lebanon, Yemen and Iraq, to exact a price from Israel. Hamas also fiercely attacked the Persian Gulf states that seek to establish normalised relations with Israel and said that the normalisation camp was a losing camp.

Context: As the war enters its third week, both US and Israeli officials sound upbeat at the military  achievements to date.

• The  tight US – Israel  military cooperation continues with a  clear division of labour. Each military is carrying out their attacks in different strike zones, but with a shared intelligence target bank. Each sides has senior liaison officers in each other’s headquarters whilst a special intelligence team operates in Israel, feeds targets in real time to both militaries.  
• According to the IDF Military Intelligence Directorate, the Israel Air Force has so far destroyed 100 Iranian anti-aircraft batteries and another 120 radars, providing it with absolute air superiority. Seventy percent of Iran’s missile launchers have been either destroyed, decommissioned or buried out of reach inside tunnels.
• Military intelligence now assesses that Iran’s missile production has dropped to zero, but ongoing attacks are needed to prevent the Iranians from trying to resume production. Moreover, the volume of missile fire on Israel needs to be reduced further.
• Rumours circulated over the weekend that the IDF is running out of interceptor missiles, based on a  report on the US website Semafor, that claimed Israel informed the US that it suffers from a severe shortage in missiles used to intercept ballistic missiles. This led the IDF to issue a statement, “As of now, there is no interceptor shortage. The IDF prepared for prolonged combat. We are continuously monitoring the situation.” In addition it was cleared for publication that Israel’s cabinet approved allocating NIS 2.6 billion (£626m) for further purchases for the war.
• There are initial signs of diplomatic efforts to bring the war to an end.  Most significantly regarding Lebanon. Former Minister Dermer is once more serving as an envoy for the Prime Minister. Over the weekend he visited Saudi Arabia to discuss a peace initiative between Israel and Lebanon for after the fighting is over. One initiative aims to turn Hezbollah into a political movement without any military capabilities. The Lebanese government, the White House and the French are all party to the talks.
• President Trump warned NATO could face a “very bad future” if US allies refused to help secure the Strait of Hormuz. Trump said countries that benefit from the shipping lane should contribute forces, including minesweepers and personnel to counter “bad actors” along Iran’s coast. “If there’s no response or if it’s a negative response I think it will be very bad for the future of NATO.”
• In response, the UK is working alongside allies on plan to reopen Strait of Hormuz as announced this morning by Keir Starmer. 
• The fear of rising energy prices from the closure of the Straits  – where 20% of the world’s oil passes – has led to an agreement by over 30 nations in Europe, North America and Northeast Asia to flood the market with 400 million barrels of oil. The US is leading the effort with a release of 172 million barrels from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve.
• Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait and the UAE export approximately 14 million barrels per day. Approximately 5 million barrels per day can be exported using Saudi and UAE pipelines that end at the Red Sea and Gulf of Oman. The remaining 9 million barrels per day constitutes about 10% of global supply and can only pass through the Strait.
• The closure of Hormuz provides strategic leverage to Iran. If Israel and the US prove unable to force the re-opening of the Straits, it will show Iran to be a regional hegemon which will provide it with leverage over the Gulf Countries and others.
• Against the backdrop of this challenge, over the weekend, Trump announced that the US had “executed one of the most powerful bombing raids in the History of the Middle East, and totally obliterated every MILITARY target in Iran’s crown jewel, Kharg Island.” Trump added that the oil infrastructure on the island was not destroyed but warned that “should Iran, or anyone else, do anything to interfere with the Free and Safe Passage of Ships through the Strait of Hormuz, I will immediately reconsider this decision.”

Looking ahead: Two more IDF divisions are expected to join operations in southern Lebanon in the next few days.

• European Union foreign ministers will discuss a potential ⁠widening of ⁠the EU Aspides naval mission to the Strait of Hormuz. The report in the Financial Times suggested that an EU-UN joint naval mission to ensure ⁠safe passage “seems more likely” than EU countries approaching ⁠Iran bilaterally.
• Israel and the US have approved operational plans for the next three weeks. The plan is to destroy all of the Iranian regime’s components and capabilities.