What’s happened: The entire region was jolted by the American announcement that the US was withdrawing its diplomats from Iraq and authorising voluntary departures of military families from countries throughout the Persian Gulf.
- The announcement appears to signal an imminent attack on Iran. It is not clear if the American action is in anticipation of an Israeli attack or an American one. Indeed, Citing five unnamed sources NBC News reported Israel was considering launching an attack on Iran within days. A senior Iranian official stated that the country had been alerted by a ‘friendly country in the region’ about a possible Israeli attack.
- Negotiations between the US and Iran in Oman have been at an impasse over the issue of uranium enrichment. The removal of non-essential American personnel from the region could be intended as a signal to Iran of the seriousness of the American position in the hope of moving the Iranians closer to a deal.
- In Vienna, the board of governors of the IAEA concluded this morning that Iran is in breach of its obligations under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). The US, UK, France, and Germany, have introduced a motion of censure on the Iranian nuclear activity which was revealed last week. Such a censure motion, if passed, could force the implementation of so-called “snap-back” sanctions that were lifted as part of the 2015 nuclear deal signed by Iran and six major powers and grounded in a UN Security Council resolution.
- Israeli Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Oren Marmorstein called on the international community to “respond decisively to Iran’s non-compliance and take measures to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons.”
- Regarding the possible censure vote, Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi posted a message on social media on Wednesday that censure “will compel Iran to react STRONGLY.”