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Iran and their Proxies

Key background
  • The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is a branch of the Iranian Armed Forces with a constitutional mandate for guaranteeing the Islamic Republic’s integrity and projecting its influence abroad. In practice, this manifests as supporting Iranian allies and proxies with funds, weapons, and training.
  • Many of its allies and proxies are terrorist groups and human rights abusers including: Hamas, PIJ, Hezbollah, the Islamic Resistance in Iraq, the Houthis, Syrian Arab Republic, and Russia.
  • Iran is the world’s leading enabler and facilitator of terrorism, especially targeting the US and its allies. It has also targeted diplomatic missions and diaspora Jews.
Iranian national flag over Tehran
Iranian national flag over Tehran

Updated June 12, 2025

Tensions increase with Iran

What’s happened: The entire region was jolted by the American announcement that the US was withdrawing its diplomats from Iraq and authorising voluntary departures of military families from countries throughout the Persian Gulf. 

  • The announcement appears to signal an imminent attack on Iran. It is not clear if the American action is in anticipation of an Israeli attack or an American one. Indeed, Citing five unnamed sources NBC News reported Israel was considering launching an attack on Iran within days. A senior Iranian official stated that the country had been alerted by a ‘friendly country in the region’ about a possible Israeli attack.
  • Negotiations between the US and Iran in Oman have been at an impasse over the issue of uranium enrichment. The removal of non-essential American personnel from the region could be intended as a signal to Iran of the seriousness of the American position in the hope of moving the Iranians closer to a deal.
  • In Vienna, the board of governors of the IAEA concluded this morning that Iran is in breach of its obligations under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). The US, UK, France, and Germany, have introduced a motion of censure on the Iranian nuclear activity which was revealed last week. Such a censure motion, if passed, could force the implementation of so-called “snap-back” sanctions that were lifted as part of the 2015 nuclear deal signed by Iran and six major powers and grounded in a UN Security Council resolution. 
  • Israeli Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Oren Marmorstein called on the international community to “respond decisively to Iran’s non-compliance and take measures to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons.”
  • Regarding the possible censure vote, Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi posted a message on social media on Wednesday that censure “will compel Iran to react STRONGLY.”

June 10, 2025

Crunch time approaching on US – Iran nuclear talks

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu arrives to the courtroom at the Distrcit court in Tel Aviv, before the start of his testimony in the trial against him, June 9, 2025.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu arrives to the courtroom at the Distrcit court in Tel Aviv, before the start of his testimony in the trial against him, June 9, 2025. Photo by Yariv Katz/POOL ***POOL PICTURE, EDITORIAL USE ONLY/NO SALES, PLEASE CREDIT THE PHOTOGRAPHER AS WRITTEN - YARIV KATZ/POOL*** *** Local Caption *** בנימין נתניהו בית משפט ראש הממשלה נתניהו אולם דיונים בית משפט מחוזי

What’s happened: Prime Minister Netanyahu and President Trump spoke on the phone yesterday for 40 minutes, as the President appraised the prime minister on the latest developments in the US talks with Iran over their nuclear programme. 

  • According to the Israeli Prime Minister’s Office, “President Trump told the Prime Minister that the United States has presented a reasonable proposal to Iran and is expected to receive its response in the coming days.” 
  • In Washington, President Trump said it was a “very good” call, and also revealed that Iran is involved in the ceasefire negotiations with Hamas. Speaking at the White House, President Trump said, “Gaza right now is in the midst of a massive negotiation between us and Hamas and Israel, and Iran, actually, is involved and we’ll see what’s going to happen with Gaza. We want to get the hostages back. That’s all I can tell you.”
  • Regarding the Iranian nuclear programme, the president said, “We are trying to do something with Iran. They are very good negotiators. They’re tough, sometimes too tough.”
  • Following the call, Netanyahu convened his senior ministers and heads of the security establishment for a consultation focused on Iran.
  • Meanwhile in Tehran, the Iranian National Security Council issued it latest threat against Israel saying, “If the Zionist regime wants to take action against our nuclear centres and facilities, it will definitely and surely face our reaction. For the counterattack, the nuclear facilities of the regime will be targeted and operated upon with advanced weaponry.” 
  • The Iranians have also been claiming they will soon reveal, what they are describing as, “a national intelligence achievement,” which could include an expose on Israel’s alleged nuclear capacity as well as a potential database of targets inside Israel.
  • In Vienna yesterday, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Board of Governors convened to discuss a comprehensive report published in late May that found that Iran has conducted covert nuclear activities at three sites that have been under investigation for years, using materials it had not reported to the agency. 

Context: The call from Trump came as Prime Minister Netanyahu was facing cross-examination in his corruption trial. 

  • At the same time Netanyahu is also facing a political crisis, with his ultra-Orthodox partners threatening to vote in a no-confidence motion to bring down the government over the absence of legislation to exempt ultra-Orthodox men from service in the military. 
  • The call also coincides with suggestions that the US-Iran nuclear talks have reached a deadlock and could soon breakdown completely. The fundamental issue remains whether Iran will be allowed to enrich uranium on its own soil for what it defines as a civilian nuclear programme. The latest US proposal reportedly allows limited, low-level enrichment inside Iran for a time. The President recently stated, “They don’t want to give up what they have to give up. You know what that is: They seek enrichment….They have given us their thoughts on the deal, and I said it’s just not acceptable.” 
  • Trump’s claim that Iran is also involved in the hostage negotiations comes as surprise, as Israel marks 613 days with 55 hostages still in captivity.
  • Netanyahu and his Likud allies could well be using the crisis with Iran as a further reason to maintain the governing coalition and not go for early elections at this sensitive time. 
  • In fact, Israeli media has reported that US Ambassador Mike Huckabee has been meeting ultra-Orthodox politicians claiming that “government stability is important for addressing the Iranian issue.”
  • This in turn, led to Leader of the Opposition Lapid to state on X, “Since I have no doubt that Ambassador Huckabee respects Israel’s independence and its democracy, I hope and believe that the report that he is interfering in Israel’s internal politics and trying to help Netanyahu with the ultra-Orthodox in the military draft law crisis are not true. Israel is not a protectorate.”
  • Netanyahu’s long held position has called for the full dismantlement of the Iranian nuclear programme (the so-called Libya option), but it is understood that he has assured the US administration that Israel won’t launch an attack while negotiations are ongoing. 

Latest strikes in Yemen: Following a warning last night, Israel Navy missile boats this morning attacked Houthi targets in the Hodeida port. 

  • This follows persistent missile attacks towards Israel, but is the first time that Israel has deployed the navy rather than the Israeli Air Force to engage Houthi targets.    
  • According to the IDF Spokesperson’s Office, “The attack was designed to entrench the damage to the military use made of the port, which was attacked by the IDF this past year and has continued to serve terrorist activity. The port that was attacked was used to transfer arms and is another example of the cynical use and exploitation of civilian infrastructure by the terrorist Houthi regime to facilitate terrorist operations. The attack was executed after numerous prior warnings by the IDF to minimise possible civilian casualties in the area.”

Looking ahead: Following the security consultation, it is anticipated that Strategic Affairs Minister Dermer and Mossad chief Barnea will once more travel to the US and meet special envoy Witkoff, who is leading the US-Iran nuclear talks (as well as the hostages portfolio).  

  • The US and E3 countries (the UK, France and Germany) plan to submit a draft resolution to the IAEA board declaring Iran in violation of its commitments to prevent the proliferation of nuclear weapons. Such a resolution could pave the way to setting in motion the “snapback” mechanism, reinstating all UN Security Council sanctions on Iran that were lifted as part of the 2015 JCPOA.
  • In the Knesset, the preliminary vote to disband the government will be held tomorrow, but this will still leave time for a compromise to be reached before three further readings and votes that will dissolve the Knesset and lead to elections.
  • American and Iranian negotiators are due to meet for a sixth round of nuclear talks on Sunday in Oman.

June 5, 2025

Rocket fire from Syria amid nuclear tensions with Iran

Tourists enjoy a scenic view of Syria from the top of Mount Bental, Golan Heights on May 28, 2025.
Hundreds of high school pupils and tourists enjoy a scenic view of Syria from the top of Mount Bental, which was closed to the public due to the war, Golan Heights on May 28, 2025. Photo by Michael Giladi/Flash90 *** Local Caption *** הר בנטל סוריה

What’s happened: As nuclear negotiations between the US and Iran continue, tensions between Jerusalem and Damascus have risen after two projectiles were fired from

  • Two rockets were launched yesterday which landed in the Golan Heights. These are the first rockets to be fired from in over a year, and did not cause any damage or casualties.
  • The attack was claimed by two new and previously unrecognised groups: the “Islamic Resistance Front”, and “Mohammed Deif Brigade”. Neither group’s claim has been verified, but in a recording released by the Lebanese pro-Hezbollah Mayadeen outlet, a Mohammed Deif Brigade spokesman said that the fire was in response to “Israel’s massacres in Palestine, Israel’s daily attacks in , and the wave of normalization between the current Syrian regime and Israel”.
  • Defence Minister Katz responded by saying that Israel viewed “the Syrian president directly responsible for every threat and [rocket] fire toward the State of Israel”, a “full response” would follow soon, and that Israel “will not allow a return to a pre-October 7 reality”.
  • In a statement of its own, the IDF said that “The Syrian regime is responsible for what is happening in Syria and will continue to bear the consequences as long as hostile activity continues from its territory”.
  • Israel’s response was artillery fire at the site where the rockets were fired from, and a series of air strikes destroying weapons it says belonged to the regime in southern Syria. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights subsequently reporting explosions in Quneitra and Deraa “following Israeli aerial strikes”.
  • Syria responded to the rocket attack and Israeli retaliation strike by insisting that it would “never be a threat” to anyone in the region.
  • Earlier this week, President al-Sharaa gave an unprecedented interview to the US-based Jewish Journal where he indicated his openness to positively engage with Israel, stated that the two countries “have common enemies”, and expressed a desire to use the 1974 Disengagement Agreement with Israel as a framework for future engagement.
  • Yesterday, America’s Ambassador to Turkey who also serves as its Syria Envoy, was sent to Israel for talks with Prime Minister Netanyahu, which are likely to focus on de-escalating the current security situation.
  • In other news, negotiations between the US and Iran are continuing, but appear decreasingly likely to succeed.
  • In his first direct comments on Witkoff’s proposals, Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei said that the framework “contradicts our nation’s belief in self-reliance” and runs counter to its energy independence ambitions.
  • In a speech, Khamenei said the proposal “contradicts our principle of power by 100%” and vowed that Iran would not agree to stop enriching uranium on its own soil, calling it “a key tool in the nuclear program.” He added that “The rude and arrogant leaders of America repeatedly demand that we should not have a nuclear programme. Who are you to decide whether Iran should have enrichment?”
  • Following the speech, Iran’s foreign minister, Seyed Abbas Araghchi, emphasised the Islamic Republic’s position, writing “no enrichment, no deal.”
  • Meanwhile, ABC quoted an unnamed Iranian official who that the US’ proposed terms are “unreasonable, greedy and unconventional.”
  • Yesterday, after speaking to Russia’s President Putin, Trump signalled Russia could be involved, and that Iran was ‘slowwalking’ its decision on enrichment. “President Putin suggested that he will participate in the discussions with Iran and that he could, perhaps, be helpful in getting this brought to a rapid conclusion,” Trump wrote on Truth Social. “It is my opinion that Iran has been slowwalking their decision on this very important matter, and we will need a definitive answer in a very short period of time!”
  • On Monday, Trump wrote on Truth Social “Under our potential Agreement — WE WILL NOT ALLOW ANY ENRICHMENT OF URANIUM!” 

Context – Syria: Since the toppling of the Baathist regime in December 2024, the new government under Ahmed al-Sharaa’s leadership has gone to significant lengths to impress its non-threatening posture on the international community, including Israel.

  • President al-Sharaa has directly referred to Israel by name on a consistent basis since taking office, and it is understood that Israel and Syria are now engaging in direct negotiations intended to deconflict the border region around the Golan Heights. This follows indirect negotiations brokered by Turkey and Azerbaijan.
  • Sharaa’s interview marks a major development in Israeli-Syrian relations where up until now, pre-1967 borders were viewed as the starting point for any potential peace negotiations.

Context – Iran: At the crux of the disagreement between the sides is the issue of Iran abandoning its nuclear enrichment, which Khamenei sees a red line. While Iran is said to be open to uranium being enriched by a consortium operating within its own borders, it is unlikely to agree to this taking place abroad as per stipulations by the US.

  • Earlier this week, Saudi Arabia reportedly warned Iran that by failing to reach a nuclear deal, it risked Israeli strikes and causing further regional de-escalation.
  • The Financial Times reported that Iran is rebuilding its air defence systems that were destroyed in October 2024’s Israeli strikes in anticipation of further attacks, specifically targeting its nuclear site. Satellite imagery indicates that S-300 air defence systems have been redeployed to critical sites including nuclear enrichment facilities at Natanz and Fordo.
  • The official failure of talks would increases the chances of Israeli military action against Iranian nuclear sites.

Looking ahead: Mediators working to secure the release of hostages and a ceasefire in Gaza are “optimistic” that Hamas will update their proposal reflecting a somewhat softened stance.

  • Egyptian and Qatari mediators have continued to negotiate with Hamas, alongside US-Palestinian activist and businessman, Bishara Bahbah who acted as the main backchannel through which Edan Alexander’s release was secured last month.
  • Some outlets have raised the possibility that a breakthrough may occur just before the holiday of Eid begins at sunset tonight.

May 12, 2025

Dual Israeli – US soldier due to be released today

People walk by posters of Israeli/US hostage Edan Alexander
People walk by posters of Israeli/US hostage Edan Alexander, whom Hamas is expected to release today, May 12, 2025. Photo by Miriam Alster/Flash90 *** Local Caption *** עידן אלכסנדר חטוף שחרור חטופים כיכר

What’s happened: Hamas announced that it will release Edan Alexander, a kidnapped IDF soldier who is also an American citizen. 

  • His release is being seen as a goodwill gesture towards US President Trump before his trip to the Gulf, and appears to be the result of direct talks between the US and Hamas. 
  • The Alexander family issued a statement noting, “the continuous contact with the American administration regarding the possibility of Edan’s anticipated release in the coming days.”
  • Israel’s Prime Minister’s Office also issued a statement that the expected release, “without anything in return will be possible due to the vigorous policy that we have led with the backing of President Trump, and thanks to the military pressure of IDF soldiers in the Gaza Strip.” It added that “Israel has not committed to a ceasefire of any kind or the release of terrorists but only to a safe corridor that will allow for the release of Edan.”
  • Leader of the Opposition Lapid said, “Edan Alexander’s release is welcome and moving, but we must not stop there. This has to lead to a broad hostage deal that will return all the hostages home. They don’t have time. The reports about direct talks between Hamas and the United States are a disgraceful political failure of the Israeli government and the prime minister. The hostages are ours, and the responsibility for getting them back resides with the government. Our hearts are with the families.”
  • Adding to the criticism of the Israeli government, US envoy Witkoff told hostage families that the US “wants to return the hostages, but Israel is not ready to end the war…. Israel is prolonging the war, even though we do not see where further progress can be made.” 
  • Witkoff also related to negotiations with Iran following the fourth round of negotiations over the weekend. Witkoff denied the US was on its way to signing a deal similar to the 2015 agreement under the Obama administration. “We’re never doing a JCPOA deal where sanctions come off and there’s no sunsetting of their obligations … They cannot have enrichment, they cannot have centrifuges, they cannot have anything that allows them to build a weapon.”
  • Also over the weekend, Hamas released their latest propaganda video, this one featuring Elkana Bohbot and Yosef-Haim Ohana. It served as another reminder of the awful condition the hostages are in.

Context: Ahead of President Trump’s visit to the region, there are several issues on his agenda that will have a significant impact on Israel. 

  • Foremost are the Iranian nuclear negotiations. Despite Witkoff’s denials, Israel is concerned that the inchoate deal will allow Iran to retain some level of enrichment and will resemble the deal signed by President Obama a decade ago. There is also a fear that it will not relate to Iran’s regional role or their development of advanced missiles.    
  • There is added concern the new agreement will not only allow Iran to retain the knowhow and means to acquire nuclear capabilities in the future, but sanctions relief will free up funds that will allow it to repair its economy and to provide meaningful support to its proxies in the region.
  • The second issue is the anticipated defence deal between the US and Saudi Arabia, which could challenge the longstanding US – Israel principle of Israel maintaining a qualitative military edge in the region.
  • As part of such a deal, there are also suggestions that the US could acquiesce to a Saudi nuclear programme. These were supposed to be components of an Israeli – Saudi normalisation agreement, but that now appears to be off the agenda.   
  • The third major issue relates to Gaza, both in terms of securing another hostage deal and how long the US will support an intensification of the fighting.
  • The US’s unilateral deal over Edan Alexander could relegate the fate of the remaining hostages. It also brings into greater focus the notion that traditionally Israel would do all it could to return Israeli captives. Now the impression is that a dual passport is worth more. 
  • Connected to this is the expected huge financial deal between US and Qatar, that brings the Qataris even closer into Trump’s orbit at Israel’s expense.
  • The fourth issue is the Houthis. Israel was surprised last week by the US announcement to end their strikes in Yemen, at the same time as attacks on Israel persist. Yesterday the IDF released a warning in Arabic to evacuate three sea ports in Yemen in preparation for an Israeli attack. So far, the IDF has not acted on the threat, allowing for speculation as to whether this was part of physiological warfare or if an attack remains imminent. 
  • In a potential attempt to emphasise the government’s commitment to returning hostages and captured soldiers, the Israeli government announced that, in a special operation by the Mossad and the IDF, it had recovered  the body of Sgt. First Class Tzvi Feldman, who fell in the Battle of Sultan Yacob in June 1982 during the First Lebanon War.

Looking ahead: Edan Alexander is now expected to be released this afternoon.

  • President Trump is due to depart this evening. His first stop will be Saudi Arabia, followed by UAE and Qatar. 
  • There are news reports that Trump’s meeting with Mohammed bin Salman in Riyadh on Tuesday is also set to include PA Chairman Abbas, Lebanese President Aoun and ‘s de facto leader, Ahmed al-Sharaa (Abu Mohammad al-Julani).
  • There are suggestions in the Israeli media that if he is physically well enough, Edan Alexander will fly with his family and Witkoff to meet Trump in Qatar.    
  • The IDF has completed its preparations for a military operation in Gaza, which is anticipated to begin immediately after Trump leaves the region.

May 7, 2025

Israel strikes Yemen again, as Trump announces end of US offensive

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the Air Force Command Center during the Attack on Houthi Terrorist Targets in Yemen, Monday, 5 May 2025
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the Air Force Command Center during the Attack on Houthi Terrorist Targets in Yemen, Monday, 5 May 2025, photo credit: Ma'ayan Toaf (GPO)

What’s happened: For a second time within 24 hours the Israeli Air Force (IAF) jets struck strategic targets in Houthi-controlled Yemen.

  • Among the targets struck were runways, aircraft, and infrastructure at Sanaa International Airport which put it out of commission and disrupted three scheduled flights. 
  • The IDF said that the airport was used “for transferring weapons and operatives, and is regularly operated by the Houthi regime for terror purposes.”
  • Prime Minister Netanyahu commented that Israeli planes “attacked the airport in Sanaa, an airport that enables the terrorist army and allows for the entry by air to the terrorist state, which enables the firing of missiles at us.”
  • Prior to the strike, the IDF issued an “urgent” warning to civilians to evacuate the airport area immediately.
  • IAF jets also hit several power stations near Sanaa and a cement factory north of the city, which the IDF said, “constitutes a blow to the regime’s economy and its military buildup.”
  • The strikes came in response to repeated Houthis missiles targeting Israel, one of which landed inside the perimeter of Ben Gurion Airport on Sunday.
  • Dozens of IAF aircraft once again took part in the operation, including fighter jets, refuelers and intelligence gathering planes. The IDF said the fighter jets dropped 50 munitions on the targets.
  • This morning the IDF said they shot down a UAV launched from Yemen, before it entered Israeli airspace. As such no sirens were sounded. 

Trump announcement: In a move that surprised Israel officials, President Trump declared that the US is ending its (almost) two month bombing campaign targeting the Houthis.  

  • Trump said the Houthis approached the administration on Monday night indicating “they want to stop the fighting.” 
  • Trump added, “It’s not a deal….They said, ‘Please don’t bomb us anymore and we’re not going to attack your ships.’”
  • The Omani Foreign Minister Badr Albusaidi confirmed on X that his country mediated talks between the Houthis and the US, adding “in the future, neither side will target the other, including American vessels, in the Red Sea and Bab al-Mandab Strait, ensuring freedom of navigation and the smooth flow of international commercial shipping.”

    For context on the strikes on Yemen – see yesterday’s briefing

Context: Trump’s announcement was the second time in recent weeks that he surprised Israel officials, after he announced that the US would hold talks with Iran while Prime Minister Netanyahu was sat next to him in the White House.

  • Israeli officials were initially disappointed by the announcement. Despite the US attacks, the Houthis still maintain capacity to launch missiles and drones. 
  • However the initial assessment in Jerusalem is that Trump’s announcement would not affect Israel nor restrict its freedom of action against the Houthis. 
  • Earlier this week, the Israeli security cabinet approved Operation Gideon’s Chariots, which involves intensifying the military activity in Gaza. It is only expected to begin after Trump’s visit, and only if no hostage deal can be reached. 
  • President Trump said last night that only 21 hostages in Gaza are still alive. The Hostage and Missing Families Forum issued a statement this morning saying that the number of living hostages, as they had been officially informed, was 24. The forum added that if there was any new information that they have not been given, they wanted to receive it immediately. It echoed a comment made last week by the Prime Minister’s wife Sara that there were fewer than 24 hostages still alive. 
  • Ahead of Trump’s arrival, mediators have reportedly increased the pressure on Hamas in an effort to reach a new hostage deal.
  • The US are apparently encouraging Hamas’s two biggest supporters – Turkey and Qatar to reduce their support for Hamas, and to induce them to compromise. 
  • In addition, Hamas claims that Egypt has begun to pressure it to agree to dismantle its military wing. 

Looking ahead: It is anticipated that the Houthis will continue to try and attack Israel. President of the Houthis Supreme Political Council, Mahdi al-Mashat, warned in response, “To all Zionists, from now on, stay in shelters or leave to your homelands immediately, for your failed government will no longer be able to protect you.”   

  • Relating to the strikes in Yemen, Defence Minister Katz said that this also constituted a “warning to the head of the Iranian octopus: You bear direct responsibility for the attack by the Houthi tentacle against the State of Israel, and you will also be held accountable for the results.”
  • Minister for Strategic Affairs Ron Dermer is in Washington and is expected to meet US officials in the White House today and coordinate positions ahead of Trump’s visit to the region next week.
  • At present Trump is not scheduled to stop in Israel during his visit, but there are several weighty issues that do affect Israel, including the talks with Iran, hopes for another hostage deal and a potential defence agreement between US and Saudi Arabia.

May 6, 2025

Israel attack Yemen, following missile on airport

F-15I Ra'am takes off for strikes against the Houthis.
F-15I Ra'am takes off for strikes against the Houthis. Photo credit: IDF

What’s happened: The Israeli Air Force launched a series of strikes against Houthi targets in the Yemeni port city of Hodeidah. 

  • Approximately twenty jets participated in the strikes which the IDF says targeted “terrorist infrastructure sites” used as a central supply source for the Houthis, as well as where Iranian weapons and military equipment were transferred to them.
  • A concrete plant east of the city was also struck, with the IDF describing it as a “significant economic resource” for the group.
  • Israeli officials have confirmed that although the strikes were closely coordinated with the US, they were not a joint operation.
  • In response, the Houthis said they remain “undeterred,” and indicated their intent to escalate attacks on both Israel and international shipping operating in and around the Red Sea.
  • The attack follows weeks of escalating missile and drone campaign against Israel since the breakdown of the Gaza ceasefire in March, and a missile striking the Ben Gurion Airport compound this Sunday. 
  • Following a technical failure and unsuccessful interception, the missile landed in an open area, causing no direct damage to the airport, though eight people were injured by shrapnel and shockwaves caused by the blast. 
  • Ben Gurion Airport was briefly closed, but operations resumed within approximately an hour.
  • The majority of foreign airliners have suspended their flights to and from Israel, but Israeli carriers’ operations remain largely unaffected.
  • The Houthis claimed the Ben Gurion strike as a victory, stating that air travel to and from Israel was no longer safe and they were imposing a comprehensive air blockade.
  • Israel reacted angrily, with Prime Minister Netanyahu threatening both the Houthis and “their patron” Iran in the hours after the missile strike.
  • Iran has denied ordering the attack, with its foreign ministry saying that “The actions of the Yemenis in support of the Palestinian people was an independent decision stemming from their feeling of solidarity.”
  • President Trump responded by saying that “Every shot fired by the Houthis will be looked upon, from this point forward, as being a shot fired from the weapons and leadership of IRAN, and IRAN will be held responsible, and suffer the consequences, and those consequences will be dire!”

Context:  Despite the Houthis escalating attacks since March – having launched around 26 ballistic missiles attacks as well as UAV’s – these are the first air strikes Israel has carried out in Yemen since December 2024. 

  • Since November 2023 the Houthis have launched around 370 missiles and drones towards Israel. Israel’s anti-missile defence system has around a 95 per cent successful interception rate. Israel says that most were intercepted outside of Israel’s airspace. 
  • Due to the attacks on international shipping lanes, the Trump administration has taken the lead in responding to the Houthi threat, and has launched approximately a thousand retaliatory air strikes up, with some assistance from the RAF.
  • Despite President Trump’s consistent threats to significantly degrade the group’s capabilities, American and British actions seems to have had limited to no deterring effect on the Houthis, with missile and drone attacks continuing and showing no sign of abatement. 
  • However, the significance of a direct hit in the Ben Gurion area causing Israel’s national airport to close (albeit briefly) could not be ignored, and Israeli officials felt it demanded a direct Israeli military response.
  • The IDF’s choice of targeting the port of Hodeidah is viewed as symbolic, targeting a port for a port. 
  • It is probable that the US and UK will continue conducting the majority of air strikes against the Houthis, and Israel will only intervene again in the event of another major successful missile or drone attack, especially if it causes loss of life.

April 24, 2025

US Secretary of State Rubio reiterates Iran cannot enrich uranium

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio attends the International Women of Courage Awards at the State Department in Washington, D.C., on April 1, 2025. Photo by Liri Agami/Flash90 *** Local Caption *** מרקו רוביו טקס מזכיר המדינה פורצות דרך

What’s happened: US Secretary of State Rubio said yesterday that Iran could be allowed a civil nuclear programme but emphasised that it must refrain from enriching uranium.

  • In an interview on Bari Weiss’s podcast Rubio said, “If Iran wants a civil nuclear programme, they can have one just like many other countries in the world have one. That is, they import enriched material.”
  • Rubio also reiterated President Trump’s longstanding position that diplomacy was preferable to military action, while praising Special Envoy Witkoff’s efforts in negotiating with Iran.
  • With US-Iranian talks ongoing, President Trump and Prime Minister Netanyahu spoke by phone on Tuesday, with Trump later saying that they were “on the same side of every issue.”
  • The call follows a second round of talks between the US and Iran hosted at the Omani Embassy in Rome where the Iranian Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi, said that he and Witkoff had “managed to reach a better understanding on a series of principles and goals.”
  • Witkoff had previously stated that the US would accept a cap on Iranian nuclear enrichment. However, a day later, he U-turned and asserted that all enrichment would have to end.
  • In parallel, Mohammed Eslami, the Head of Iran’s Atomic Energy Organisation, has confirmed that Iran has begun fortifying tunnel systems linked to its nuclear project, explaining that “efforts are ongoing…[to] expand protective facilities.”

Context: While the US seemingly open to Iran developing and maintaining a civil nuclear energy programme if it refrains from enriching its own uranium, Israel is taking a less compromising position.

  • In parallel to the negotiations Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei laid out his country’s red lines for negotiations that include:
    • Not dismantling any of their centrifuges.
    • Not lowering uranium enrichment below 3.67% (the level agreed in the JCPOA 2015 nuclear agreement).
    • Not ceasing missile programmes (that currently remain outside the scope of the JCPOA).
    • Guarantees that the US will not withdraw from a future deal (as President Trump did in 2018).
  • Prime Minister Netanyahu has said that the only diplomatic solution to the nuclear crisis with Iran is the ‘Libya option’ in which all existing infrastructure in Iran will be dismantled or is shipped out of the country.
  • A recent New York Times article claimed Trump had blocked an Israeli military attack on nuclear facilities, with the administration wanting to give more time for diplomacy.
  • In the context of these military threats, evidence that Tehran has begun fortifying tunnel systems linked to its main nuclear facility – that could potentially store highly enriched uranium, and other undeclared nuclear materials, or advanced centrifuges – is pertinent. 
  • The evidence was taken from commercial satellite imagery taken over Iran at the end of March 2025, and published in a report by the Institute for Science and International Security. The Institute’s President, David Albright, has suggested that the new tunnels could become operational relatively soon, and that it was highly unlikely that UN nuclear inspectors would be granted access to them.
  • Israel has long attempted to undermine and weaken Iran’s nuclear programme, primarily through covert and deniable means including cyber-attacks, sabotaging facilities, and targeted assassinations of nuclear scientists and officials.
  • All these efforts are assumed to be paused while Israel closely follows US efforts to reach a diplomatic solution.
  • Although not party to the talks, Israel will be hoping that Netanyahu’s personal ties – along with those of Minister Dermer – will be able to influence the US position.

Looking ahead: A third round of US-Iran nuclear talks will take place on Saturday, this time returning to Muscat in Oman.

  • This upcoming round has been described as both “technical” and “high-level”, and is understood to focus on agreeing a framework for a potential nuclear deal which would not be dissimilar to the JCPOA.

April 17, 2025

Trump and the Iranian nuclear project

Donald Trump
Donald Trump, photo by Daniel Torok, who has released it into the public domain.

New BICOM research: Ahead of the highly anticipated second round of US–Iran talks in Rome this Saturday (October 19), BICOM’s latest paper examines the US position and the strategic implications of a potential deal for Israel and the wider Middle East.

Key points:

  1. For the first time in a decade, the US has opened direct talks with Iran over its nuclear programme, while simultaneously threatening military action if an agreement acceptable to the Trump administration is not reached within sixty days.
  2. In parallel, American military action in Yemen – together with the ostentatious forward deployment of naval assets in striking distance of Iran – is intended to signal that the US will not hesitate to use force if negotiations over a nuclear deal with Iran fail to achieve an agreement.
  3. The US is demanding improvements over the 2015 nuclear deal (JCPOA) on four major issues of contention:
    • time limits on nuclear activities,
    • weaponisation capabilities,
    • international inspections,
    • ballistic missile programme.
  4. While the basic points of contention between the sides remain unchanged from a decade ago, the larger geostrategic environment is dramatically different. So too is Iran’s bargaining position. On the one hand, it is at a far more advanced stage in its nuclear development. At the same time, it has seen its proxy forces in the region degraded and under pressure in Lebanon, Gaza, , and Yemen. And it has seen its own air defences largely rendered useless by Israeli strikes.
  5. President Trump seems determined to reach a deal, one that he can convince himself and his constituents is better than the one achieved by President Obama signed in 2015. His choice of real estate mogul Steve Witkoff, a trusted non-ideological dealmaker that he has relied on in other foreign policy crises, as his envoy is further evidence that Trump is keen to make a deal, even – as seen in discussions over the future of Ukraine – at the cost of alienating allies or sacrificing long-held principles.
  6. Israel is most directly affected by the outcome of these negotiations, but not a part of them. While Israeli action against Iranian capabilities and proxies has been leveraged to bolster the American negotiating position, it will ultimately be American, not Israeli, interests that determine the talks’ outcome.

April 10, 2025

Oman to host US-Iran nuclear negotiations this weekend

US President Donald Trump
US President Donald Trump seen with Israeli prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu after a meeting at the White House in Washington D.C., April 7, 2025. Photo by Liri Agami/Flash90 *** Local Caption *** ארצות הברית ישראל הבית הלבן פגישה נשיא ארצות הברית ראש ממשלת ישראל בנימין נתניהו דונלד טראמפ

What’s happened: Negotiations are due to take place between the US and Iran in Oman over the weekend. “We have a very big meeting on Saturday, and we’re dealing with them directly,” Trump told reporters on Monday after his meeting with Prime Minister Netanyahu.

  • The Iranian delegation will be led by its Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi, and the US delegation by Steven Witkoff.
  • Yesterday, President Trump told reporters that he had a deadline in mind for when the talks must culminate in an agreed-upon solution, but did not go into details about the nature of the timeline. Trump also threatened “great danger” if the two sides fail to come to an agreement.
  • “We have a little time, but we don’t have much time, because we’re not going to let them have a nuclear weapon. We can’t let them have a nuclear weapon.” Trump said.
  • Trump added that the military option was very much on the table, suggesting that Israel might take the lead on any attack. “If it requires military, we’re going to have military,” Trump told reporters. “Israel will obviously be very much involved in that. They’ll be the leader of that. But nobody leads us. We do what we want to do.”
  • The U.S. Treasury Department yesterday said it had imposed sanctions on five Iran-based entities and one person based in Iran for their support of Iran’s nuclear programme with the aim of denying Tehran a nuclear weapon. “The Iranian regime’s reckless pursuit of nuclear weapons remains a grave threat to the United States and a menace to regional stability and global security,” Treasury Secretary Bessent said. “Treasury will continue to leverage our tools and authorities to disrupt any attempt by Iran to advance its nuclear programme and its broader destabilising agenda.”
  • CIA Director Ratcliffe arrived in Israel last night and met with Prime Minister Netanyahu and his counterpart, Mossad Director Barnea. 
  • Israeli officials have confirmed that they intend to monitor their progress for any perceived “erosion” of Washington’s position on nuclear development, missiles, and its use of proxies across the region.
  • Iranian officials have said the Islamic Republic is approaching the weekend talks ‘warily’ with little confidence in progress and suspicions over US intentions.
  • The talks come as The Times reports that Iran is transferring long-range cruise and ballistic missiles to its proxy militias in Iraq for the first time. These missiles can reportedly reach targets as far away as Europe. 

Context: 

  • Several major gaps exist between the US and Iran:
    • The nature of the talks: While the US has stated that negotiations will be direct, Iran maintains that they will be indirect and moderated by Omani mediators. 
    • Sanctions on the Islamic Republic: Iran has previously indicated that it would only engage in negotiations if sanctions were gradually lifted, not merely at their conclusion once an agreement had been reached. While it had previously indicated that sanction relief was a precondition for participation, it has since dropped this demand.
    • Iran’s nuclear programme: America demands a complete dismantling of Iran’s nuclear infrastructure and missile programmes. Tehran insists that despite uranium enrichment reaching military levels, its nuclear purposes is only for peaceful civilian purposes, repeatedly denying that it intends to develop nuclear weapons citing a fatwa by Ayatollah Khamenei which bans them. 
    • Iran’s missile programme: Iran has reportedly refused to negotiate on the status of its missile programme following reports that Israel had requested the US directly address this particular issue.
    • Regional proxies: The US is also expected to seek to push Iran to address its network of terrorist proxy groups which act on its behalf across the region. The Houthis and Iraq’s Shia militias continue to represent a particular security threat to Israel and the US which is unlikely to abate given Tehran’s insistence that they act as independent agents rather than proxies or clients. The Houthis have continued to launch missiles at Israel since military operations in the Gaza Strip resumed, with the US conducting a large number of air strikes against the group in an attempt to deter their ongoing aggression.
  • While Iran’s proxy militias in Iraq have refrained from attacking Israel since December 2024, they have previously targeted and killed both American and Israeli troops since escalating their activities in the aftermath of 7th October 2023, which has included jointly claimed missile and drone attacks with the Houthis.
  • An article in Israel Hayom suggests that the US and Israel are aligned and that Trump and Netanyahu “had reached clear agreements on the issue”. It also details that negotiations would be time-limited, only giving Iran two months “to exhaust the option of negotiations”. The article adds that Israeli officials were grateful to have been notified of these developments ahead of time, and that the US had learned lessons from Adam Boehler’s unilateral attempts to engage with Hamas earlier in the year. In that case, Israel had not been advised that they would be taking place.
  • Netanyahu has described two options to prevent Iran going nuclear. This week he said that a deal would only be acceptable if it were similar to the one with Libya: “We go in, blow up the facilities, and dismantle all the equipment, under American supervision and execution. That’s the ideal scenario…The second option, which we don’t want, is that they’ll simply drag out the negotiations, and in that case, the military option becomes the only choice.” 
  • While often discrete in doing so, Oman has historically acted as a regional broker, mediator, and backchannel for sensitive negotiations, especially between the US, Iran, and conservative US-aligned Sunni states. In 2013, Oman hosted the initial US-Iranian talks which resulted in the JCPOA being signed two years later. Oman also helped facilitate 2023’s Iran-Saudi normalisation agreement with Iraqi assistance, and has acted as a diplomatic touchpoint for Bahrain to positively engage with both Iran and Qatar.

Looking ahead: With so many substantive gaps between the sides, and still disagreement as to whether talks will be direct or indirect, there is little optimism of a breakthrough in the short-term.

  • It has also been reported that Witkoff may not travel to Oman if Iran continues to refuse to hold direct talks with him.

April 8, 2025

Netanyahu meets Trump as US eyes Iran talks

Prime Minister Netanyahu and President Trump in the Oval Office
Prime Minister Netanyahu and President Trump in the Oval Office, White House, Washington, D.C., 7th April 2025. Photo credit: Avi Ohayon, GPO

What’s happened: Prime Minister Netanyahu met President Trump at the White House yesterday (7th April) in a hastily arranged meeting that reportedly focused on tariffs and Iran, with some attention also given to the war in Gaza and the hostages still held there by Hamas.

  • Trump announced that the US will be holding direct talks with Iran in an attempt to reach a new deal on the Iranian nuclear programme. Talks are due to begin this Saturday in Oman, where an American delegation led by Steve Witkoff will meet the Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi. 
  • This will be the first such high-level contact between the sides in ten years. Failure to reach an agreement would place Tehran “in great danger,” in Trump’s words.
  • Netanyahu had hoped to secure an American cancellation of tariffs imposed on Israel last week. This was not forthcoming, though President Trump did commend Israel for eliminating duties on American goods last week. Referring to Israeli efforts to eliminate any remaining barriers to US imports in Israel, Netanyahu said “I think Israel can serve as a model for many countries who ought to do the same.”

Context: The 2015 agreement between Iran and six leading states, known as the JCPOA, limiting Iran’s nuclear programme for a period of fifteen years was deeply opposed by Israel as well as hawkish element in domestic American politics and elsewhere. Disagreement over the JCPOA was the high point of tensions between President Obama and Prime Minister Netanyahu.

  • In 2018, President Trump withdrew from the agreement, but the other countries who were part of it — the UK, France, Germany, Russia, and China — did not.
  • It has been ten years since the last time the US and Iran engaged in direct talks over Iran’s nuclear programme, and the implied threat hovering over the talks of US-led military action against Iran’s nuclear facilities hasn’t changed. But at least three aspects of the threat and incentive structure are dramatically different in 2025 compared to 2015:
    • Iran appears to have enriched significantly more uranium than was the case in 2015.
    • Iran’s ability to defend itself from aerial attacks is greatly degraded as a result of the Israeli operation in 2024 which destroyed its air defences as well as its missile fuel production facility.
    • Iran’s array of regional proxies threatening Israel and American interests in the region has been even more severely degraded than its air defence system. The Assad regime in has fallen. Hezbollah in Lebanon has been almost entirely taken out of a commission since a rapid Israeli offensive last autumn. And Hamas in Gaza has been pinned down by the destructive war it launched on October 7, 2023.
  • An additional Iranian proxy, the Houthis in Yemen, have also experienced strikes from the US. Following the Trump-Netanyahu meeting US Secretary of Defense Hegseth told reporters “It’s been a bad three weeks for the Houthis, and it’s about to get worse.” He described the campaign as “devastating,” targeting underground facilities, weapons manufacturing bunkers, Houthi fighters, and air defence systems. Hegseth also criticised Iran for its continued support warning that “We have a lot more options and a lot more pressure to apply.”
  • Israel’s strategic posture vis-à-vis a negotiated process it is not a direct party to is also significantly different from what it was in 2015. On the one hand, it is much less threatened by Iranian deterrent assets on its borders. On the other, if it opposes whatever deal the Trump administration reaches with the Iranians, it has no one in domestic American politics with whom it can make a common cause over such opposition. 
  • Despite the less festive tone (in comparison to the previous Netanyahu Oval Office visit earlier this year) and the obvious areas of disagreement, both Israel and American officials were keen to emphasise the ideological and personal alignment of the two countries’ leaders.

Looking Ahead: As negotiations get underway, the positions staked out by the US and Iran on the most contentious issues are very far apart. Israel, which is not a party to the talks, insists on a “Libya model,” alluding to the 2003 agreement which saw Libya dismantle entirely its nascent nuclear facilities and ship them out of the country.

  • The announcement of direct US-Iran talks shuts the window, for now, on an Israeli military offensive against Iranian nuclear assets. Israel cannot launch an attack while the US is negotiating with Iran without angering the American administration. And if talks succeed in reaching an agreement, Israel cannot realistically launch an attack either. If talks fail, it will be up to the US to carry out its threats against the Iranians, or find itself in a weaker position in any future diplomatic confrontation. Referencing just such a threat, President Trump said, “I think everybody agrees that doing a deal would be preferable to doing the obvious.”
  • Both the Prime Minister and the President addressed the question of Turkey’s role in in particularly delicate terms. The implication of both men’s comments was that the US will seek to mediate discreet understandings between Turkey and Israel regarding each side’s most vital interests in post-Assad . Israel is very concerned about a jihadist government on its doorstep backed by Turkey, a hostile regional power that is also a member of NATO.
  • President Trump is scheduled to visit Saudi Arabia next month, and it is widely speculated that he would like a new ceasefire in Gaza in place in time for that visit, and that he is particularly keen to see the last remaining living hostage with US citizenship, Edan Alexander, among those released.

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