What’s happened: On Sunday, the Knesset House Committee announced that the date for Israel’s general election will be October 27.

• Coalition whip MK Ofir Katz (Likud) spoke of the government’s achievements, telling the House Committee that, “We passed nine budgets and hundreds of laws that benefit the citizens of the State of Israel.”
• Yisrael Beytenu leader MK Avigdor Liberman said, “On October 27, we will win. We will replace the government of the October 7 massacre and establish a Zionist and statesmanlike government, and we will rebuild the country.”
• Today the Knesset will begin its final session and will hold continuous votes on a range of proposed legislation that is waiting for final approval day and night, until Friday.
• Coalition MKs have been instructed not to leave Jerusalem in order to ensure a majority for all votes.
• Issues on the legislative agenda include:
  • Minister Levin’s bill to split the attorney general’s powers. The bill would divide the role into two separate jobs: an attorney general, responsible for legal advice to the government, representing the state in noncriminal matters and leading the state legal advisory system; and a general prosecutor, exclusively responsible for criminal law, including indictments and managing the public prosecution.
  • Basic Law: Torah Study. The bill would enshrine, “Torah study is a fundamental value of Jewish heritage and the State of Israel.” This is a softened version, removing a clause that would have granted draft dodgers benefits equivalent to those of combat soldiers, but could still be used to justify not serving in the military.  
  • Minister Karhi’s media bill. The bill would allow the establishment of new news channels with almost no regulation, abolish the structural separation between channel owners and news companies and create a government app through which all news channels could be accessed for free. It would also give the government, through appointments to the new regulator, significantly more influence over media oversight and enforcement.
  • Shas’s kashrut supervision bill. A reversal of a law passed by the previous government aimed at opening the kashrut industry to competition. This bill would centralise supervision over kosher food certification.

Context: October 27 will signify the first time since 1988 that elections have been held after a full four-year term.

• This marks a significant achievement for the coalition, which managed to politically survive the October 7 massacre, the worst disaster in Israeli history. It has endured not only the profound political and security crisis that followed, but also the mass street protests triggered by the government’s attempted judicial overhaul.
• Prime Minister Netanyahu is focused on two main political issues:
  • He is working to pass legislation designed to preserve his bloc and his alliance with the ultra-Orthodox.
  • He is also trying to cancel the Likud internal elections and secure ten personal slots on the party’s slate.
• For over a decade the ultra-orthodox have been perceived as Netanyahu’s ‘natural partners’ however gaps have emerged.
• Over the weekend  Rabbi Yitzhak Yosef, the spiritual leader of Shas, (and son of the party’s founder) suggested Eisenkot could be a better option, he was quoted saying, “There is no chance Bibi will repent. Eisenkot might.”
• Another ultra-Orthodox partner, head of the Degel Hatorah faction MK Moshe Gafni recently declared that the party no longer feel bound to Netanyahu.
• Netanyahu calculations suggest that he believes the price he will pay for advancing the ultra-Orthodox legislation is lower than the cost of entering the election without a united bloc, which could at least prevent the opposing camp from forming a government.
• However, it now appears that the controversial Basic Law: Torah Study has been stripped of the most meaningful aspects (that would have placed bible study as an equivalent value to military service) and now appears purely declarative.
• One of the major lessons from the last election is to ensure (for each bloc) that no votes are wasted. Last time Netanyahu successfully convinced Ben Gvir’s Jewish Power and Smotrich’s Religious Zionist Party to merge and run together. Due to their personal animosity this appears unlikely this time around.  Instead, Likud officials are considering reserving a spot for Smotrich on the Likud list.
• Netanyahu faces a political challenge, he is conscious of the discrepancy between the popularity of some of the Likud MKs among the Likud membership versus their standing with potential Likud voters. He is aware that despite his residual popularity among right wing voters, some of his more outspoken backbenchers are controversial and unpopular. He is therefore hoping to convince the internal Likud mechanism to give him maximum control and insert his own preferred candidates into prominent positions on the party slate.
• Within the current Likud faction, former Speaker of the Knesset MK Yuli Edelstein announced that he will not run with Likud in the upcoming elections. Similarly Likud MK Dan Illouz, a leading voice within Likud against legislation favouring the ultra-Orthodox announced that he is also leaving the party.
• According to the latest polling by Kan News, Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party has overtaken Likud for the first time and is now slated to win 24 seats were elections to be held today, one more than Netanyahu’s Likud.
• However, the seat that Eisenkot’s party has added since the last poll  did not come at the expense of  Likud, but at the expense of Naftali Bennett’s Together Party, which lost one seat and is now projected to win 15 seats. The Netanyahu bloc lost one seat and is now projected to win 52 seats, whereas the current opposition parties (including Arab parties) are projected to win 68 seats.
• Regarding suitability to serve as prime minister, 41% of respondents said they view Gadi Eisenkot as the most suitable candidate, compared with 37% for Netanyahu.

Looking ahead: The Knesset will be dissolved this coming Friday, July 17, entering a lengthy recess until after the elections.

• Netanyahu’s government will then enter a transitional caretaker phase, during which laws can only pass with the mutual consent of the Knesset factions.
• After several delays the Likud party’s constitution committee will soon meet to decide the mechanism for choosing the Likud’s party list and how many reserved spots will be granted to the prime minister. One proposal submitted to the constitution committee would be to select candidates through a hybrid of three methods; Netanyahu’s personally-selected candidates, a nominating committee and internal elections. Netanyahu is demanding ten personal slots.
• Netanyahu wants quiet until all (or some) the contentious bills are passed by the Knesset this week. Only once the Knesset is in recess will they set the criteria for the list, so there will be no chance for a rebellion within the Likud faction.
• The election will be overseen by the Central Elections Committee, which is made up of representatives of the factions represented in the Knesset according to their relative size. The committee is headed by Supreme Court Justice Noam Sohlberg. It has not yet been decided whether party lists must be submitted 45 or 50 days before the election.

What’s happened: Domestic politics in Israel was roiled by a unanimous decision by the Israeli cabinet yesterday not to comply with a Supreme Court ruling regarding a regulatory agency of commercial broadcast media.

• The controversy has come to a head over a deal to purchase Channel 13, a commercial broadcaster whose news broadcasts are seen by many as more liberal-leaning and hostile to the Government.  In March 2026, a consortium of hi-tech billionaires, all more or less publicly identified with the opposition, swooped in with a successful bid to purchase the station. The government would prefer to block this buy-out.
• In Israel, buy-outs need to be approved by a regulatory body known as the Second Authority for Television and Radio, yet this body currently does not have a quorum of members, due to several resignations – allegedly under political pressure – in the last two months.
• The Government’s position is that without a quorum of 10 members, the Second Authority cannot function and thus cannot make binding decisions.
• The Supreme Court had to decide whether to allow the continued functioning of the Second Authority or yield to the Government’s demand to hobble it or pack it with loyalist appointees who might not meet normal standards. Ultimately, it decided that the least bad option was to allow the Second Authority to keep functioning without the quorum. The Supreme Court identified the suspicion that resignations from the Second Authority were deliberately orchestrated by the government in order to stymie the Authority’s ability to rule on the Channel 13 buy-out by investors who are identified with the opposition.
• It is this ruling which the Cabinet yesterday decided it would not abide by.
• Reactions to the Cabinet decision have been furious, and despite significant developments on both the Gaza and Lebanon fronts (as well as a series of US visits being planned by senior officials for the coming week, a possible indication of a turning point on the Iran issue), the story has dominated headlines in Israel today.
  • President Herzog responded to the Cabinet decision with a statement that “noncompliance with the Supreme Court’s rulings is a red line that must never be crossed under any circumstances.”
  • Communications Minister Shlomo Karhi, the politician most identified with the Government’s push to dismantle existing commercial media regulation, attacked both the President and the Supreme Court ruling, saying, “Where was the president two weeks ago when the High Court of Justice handed down a decision in explicit contradiction to the law?”
  • Cabinet Secretary Yossi Fuchs denied that the Government was disobeying a Court ruling at all. “Contrary to reports, there isn’t a single word in the statement that calls for noncompliance with High Court of Justice rulings but, rather, fierce criticism of a ruling that is contrary to the explicit wording of the law,” he said in a statement, refereeing to the legally mandated quorum which the Court ruled was not necessary for now.
  • Opposition leader Yair Lapid was scathing in his reaction to the Cabinet decision. “This is the collapse of the foundations of our democracy,” he said. “Today, the government became a criminal. If the government sees that it is about to lose the election, either it will cheat in the election or it will announce that it is postponing the election because of a tense security situation or for some other reason, and there will no possibility of appealing this in court, because as far as it is concerned, there is no court.”
• Prime Minister Netanyahu recused himself from the vote in Cabinet on the matter, as his current trial would have put him in a conflict of interest. Nevertheless, it was universally understood that the measure was being passed with his support and encouragement.

Context: The agency in question is Israel’s Second Authority for Television and Radio, which was formed in 1990 to regulate commercial broadcasting. A separate body, the Israel Broadcasting Authority, regulates public broadcasting.

• The Second Authority is supposed to comprise 15 members, and by law has a quorum of 10 for binding decisions. Until recently, it had 14 members, but seven have resigned in one way or another, reportedly under pressure from Communications Minister Shlomo Karhi, who has been advancing a controversial media reform bill that would give the Government much more direct control of commercial media management.
• The issue of whether the Authority can convene without a quorum of members – which the Supreme Court said is possible and which the government opposes – might seem arcane and technical. But is has sparked furious passions for two reasons.
  • First, the outcome over the fight on this regulatory body will have far-reaching implications for the media environment in Israel. The struggle to influence private and public media (or the struggle to protect them from undue corporate or government influence) is one of the main threads connecting both the Netanyahu corruption trials and the attempted judicial reform launched in early 2023.
  • Second, the precedent set by a Government announcing that it is practically ignoring a Supreme Court ruling reignites all the passions of the 2023 imbroglio over the judicial overhaul. For the Government’s critics, it serves as an indication of potential future attempts to skirt legal rulings and normative governance practices as the nation heads towards general elections which, if current polling is accurate, the governing coalition is slated to lose.
• Channel 13 has the lowest ratings of the major news broadcasters, which are dominated by Channel 12 (also known as N12), whose reputation is more centrist, but also quite hostile to the Government and especially the Prime Minister.
• Nevertheless, Channel 13 has been the target of efforts by Government loyalists to push its news coverage in a more friendly direction. In 2024, the board installed Yulia Shamalov-Berkovich, a former MK from the centrist Kadima party whose politics had moved distinctly to the right as CEO of Channel 13 News, despite her lack of relevant of experience in media or management. This led to an open revolt among the newsroom’s journalists, who refused to work with her, and she was ultimately forced to resign.
• In the months following that affair, there were several attempts to engineer buyouts of Channel 13 by investors, some of whom were identified publicly with the right-wing coalition. All of these fell through due to regulatory or financial problems.
• In March of this year, when the consortium of tech billionaires identified with the opposition succeeded in presenting a buyout of Channel 13, and it was at this point that the Communications Minister sought to change the composition of the Second Authority. The Court blocked his attempt to scramble the Second Authority and recreate it with his appointments as a conflict of interest and an attempt to block the successful buyout bid.

Looking ahead: The range of dates on which the next general election can be held continues to narrow. The latest legal date is October 27 of this year. By law, elections are held on Tuesday, and must be held at least ninety but no more than 150 days after parliament is formally dissolved.

• For weeks, the coalition has been advancing a motion to dissolve parliament and hold early elections. Normally, this is a quick process, but this time while it was ongoing, the parties whose dispute was the reason for calling early elections — Likud and the religious nationalist parties on the one hand and the ultra-Orthodox parties on the other — found common cause on a bevy of controversial legislation.
• At this point, the only Tuesdays that meet the legal time requirements are all in October, and the first two (October 6 and October 13) are impractical because of their proximity to holidays. This means that “early” elections will be early by, at most, one week (October 20) and may very well take place on their original date (October 27).

What’s happened: As negotiations in Switzerland, between the US and Iran, and in Washington, between Israel and Lebanon, drag on Israel’s attention yesterday turned to domestic politics and the brewing storm regarding Haredi conscription and the last ditch efforts of the governing coalition to push through controversial legislation before the anticipated dissolution of parliament.

• Yesterday, a protest was organised by one of the ultra-Orthodox factions, Agudat Yisrael, with the intention of disrupting traffic nationwide through a slow-moving convoy heading towards a military prison where several ultra-Orthodox men who refused to comply with call-up orders are being detained.
• The protest itself did not meet the expectations of its organisers, with far too few people showing up to have the desired effect. Traffic was disrupted for a few hours on major highways, but ultimately no rally was held outside the military prison.
• Prime Minister Netanyahu completed his testimony to a Tel Aviv court yesterday in the corruption trial which has convulsed Israeli politics for nearly a decade. His trial has been underway since early 2020, and the criminal investigations which led to the trial began in 2016. The Prime Minister was first called to the witness stand in December 2024, and yesterday was his 98th hearing in the court. Over that time, multiple hearings were cancelled or postponed due to health crises, national emergencies, and wars in Gaza, Lebanon, and Iran.
• With his testimony finished, he will not reappear in court until the day a verdict is read out. The claim, used alternately by the Prime Minister’s supporters and opponents for different ends, that the trial was interfering with ability to perform his official duties, is now mostly moot.
• Also yesterday, an Israeli civilian working as a contractor for the Defence Ministry in Gaza was killed in a building collapse in the Gaza Strip. Raad Abu al-Qi’an, from the Bedouin town Hura, was carrying out demolition works with heavy machinery when the structure he was operating in collapsed. An IDF reservist was also killed in southern Lebanon in a truck accident. Master Sgt. (res.) Basil Sweid, 32, from the Druze town Peki’in, was driving a refuelling truck in the Yellow Line area of southern Lebanon when his truck overturned, killing him and moderately wounding a combat soldier.

Context: Protests from the ultra-orthodox public and the draft have been escalating in recent months because, in departure from earlier practice, ultra-Orthodox men who do not show up for draft call ups are occasionally being detained.

• In years past, this did not occur due to a complex system of deferments which the Israeli judiciary has determined were illegal. The only way to keep the deferment system going is for parliament to pass legislation enshrining it into law. But such legislation is extremely unpopular, and has become even more so since the multi-front war which ensued following the October 7 massacre nearly three years ago.
• Agudat Yisrael is the largely Hasidic party that together with Degel HaTorah, the non-Hasidic Ashkenazi faction, make up the joint list known as United Torah Judaism (UTJ) which represents the Ashkenazi ultra-orthodox public in general.  UTJ secured seven seats in the most recent Knesset election, the fourth consecutive election in which it won that exact number of mandates. It has won between six and eight seats in the last seven parliamentary elections, an indication of its steady, largely demographically determined, voting public.
• The right-wing and religious coalition in power since late 2022 would ordinarily be expected to push such legislation through as the political cost of keeping its various factions in place, but the war and the steep losses incurred by both the secular and national religious public have made parts of the right-wing coalition squeamish about some of the more extreme measures that would be needed to make the blanket deferment legal.
• At the same time, the absence of any legislation leaves the IDF with little choice but to actually detain draft refusers, even if in relatively small numbers, further inflaming passions in the Haredi community.
• While comprehensive legislation on the issue remains off the table for now, Likud lawmakers and their Haredi allies are trying to push through deeply unpopular partial measures that each side desperately wants to see come into effect before the Knesset is formally dissolved and new elections called.
• The ultra-orthodox parties would like to see the passage of far-reaching legislation entrenching legal privileges that are broadly rejected by the general public. The proposed Basic Law: Torah Study, for example, would define Torah study as “a foundational value of Jewish heritage” and would recognise Torah study as a “significant national contribution,” potentially opening the path for non-working non-serving ultra-Orthodox men to enjoy a host of public benefits normally reserved for IDF veterans. As a Basic Law, it would essentially be a quasi-constitutional statue that would override future legislation by future majorities in parliament.
• Ultra-orthodox parties have also secured Netanyahu’s backing for a bill that would undo a reform in kashrut certification that was well liked by the public, including the religiously observant public, but which shut off a lucrative patronage valve for ultra-Orthodox parties.
• They have also apparently secured the Prime Minister’s backing for a bill that would grant immunity from arrest for draft dodgers, which would not change the legal status of draft dodgers in the absence of comprehensive legislation on conscription, but would eliminate the biggest disincentive to refusal to serve.
• In exchange for this, the Haredi parties have reportedly given their assent to support a raft of parliamentary measures which Netanyahu and his party are keen to pass despite enormous public opposition. These include controversial judicial reforms, such as splitting the role of Attorney General, a contentious media reform bill, and a measure to place the internal investigations unit of the Israel Police under the direct control of the Justice Minister.
• The attempt to split the role of the Attorney General, if passed, would constitute the first real victory of the ambitious judicial reform whose rollout in the early days of the current Government in January 2023 sent Israel into months of demonstrations and counter-demonstrations.
• The proposed legislation would create a separate Prosecutor General, who would be appointed to six-year terms by a public committee and be responsible for prosecutions and investigations. The remaining responsibilities would under the remit of a newly constituted position retaining the name Attorney General, but this Attorney General would be a political appointee of the Government whose term would be tied to the Government in power. Supporters of the reform claim it would be in line with reigning international standards, while opponents fear that would politicise the judicial system and eliminate a crucial check on executive power.
• Netanyahu is accused of fraud and breach of trust for allegedly accepting expensive gifts in exchange for favours as well as for concocting a scheme to limit circulation of a free daily newspaper in exchange for more favourable coverage from an established daily tabloid (the plot, if real, was in any event never carried out). He is also accused of fraud, breach of trust, and bribery (a much more serious offence in the Israeli penal code) in a case where he allegedly advanced legislation that would have financially benefited a major media tycoon in exchange for positive media coverage.

Looking ahead: In the meantime, there is still no agreed upon date for the upcoming election. By law elections are scheduled for October 27 of this year. As the Knesset tarries in considering motions to dissolve itself and call early elections, the range of dates keeps shrinking. “Early” elections in Israel have to be held at least 90 days after parliament is formally dissolved, a no more than five months after that. Elections can only be held on a Tuesday and can’t be on a religious holiday. If the elections do not end up being held on their original date, it is likely they will only have been moved up by about a week to October 20.

• In public opinion polling, the governing coalition and opposition blocs remain almost unchanged for more than two years. The two most recent polls to be published in recent days both show the coalition projected to win 53 seats and the opposition projected to win 67. In the opposition camp, six seats are projected for the Arab list Hadash-Ta’al who are not expected to join any future coalition, and four are projected for Ra’am, which was a part of the so-called “Change Government” in power briefly in 2021-22 under Prime Ministers Naftali Bennet and Yair Lapid.
• The bigger drama inside the opposition bloc has been the steady erosion of support for the combined list of the two former Prime Ministers Bennett and Lapid and the concomitant rise of Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party. The former has fallen to 15 mandates in the most recent polls while the latter has risen to 20. Prime Minister Netanyahu’s Likud is steady on 23 mandates.
• Netanyahu’s trial will continue with several dozen more witnesses due to testify, but Netanyahu himself no longer needs to appear in court in person. The deadline to complete the trial appears to be March 2028, when the head of the judging panel, Justice Rivka Friedman-Feldman, will reach the age of 70 and is due to retire.

What’s happened: Ultra-orthodox rioters descended on the home of Supreme Court Deputy Chief Justice Noam Sohlberg in the West Bank settlement of Alon Shvut and smashed windows and caused other damage to his car, garden, and house.

• The police arrested 65 suspected rioters fleeing the scene, of whom 62 remain in custody. Some of the rioters came equipped with miniature drones, according to police.
• Sohlberg is normally seen as one of the more conservative jurists on the Court, but he joined other justices in a unanimous decision in 2024 which invalidated the exemptions from military service for ultra-Orthodox men, leaving the Knesset to advance legislation on the issue.
• The attempt to legislate some kind of compromise formulation that would pass the Court’s muster failed in the current parliamentary session, leading to the coalition breakup and the current effort to dissolve parliament and hold early elections.
• The incident was vociferously condemned by politicians in the opposition camp. Naftali Bennett, widely seen as the most likely alternative to Netanyahu in the next election, described the rioters and their backers as a “small extremist and violent group that receives protection from the government and permits itself to go further and further.” Gadi Eisenkot, whose Yashar party has been rising in the polls in recent weeks and also sees himself a possible replacement for Netanyahu, said “the extremist shirkers are harvesting the corrupt government’s fruits of incitement.”
• The Prime Minister also condemned the rioters, who said that he “expects law enforcement officials to deal aggressively with the rioters.” Among other coalition figures, the condemnations were more muted, with one ultra-Orthodox MK saying “there is no place for violence in our camp,” while understanding the “pain” felt by some of the ultra-Orthodox public at calls for universal draft enforcement. Other leaders from ultra-Orthodox parties were yet to make statements on the incident.
• President Herzog called the riot the home of a Supreme Court judge a “dangerous crossing of a red line.” He added: “I call on everyone: Stop before there is a disaster.”
• In recent years, the phenomenon of protest outside the homes of public figures has become increasingly common in Israel. What began with protests outside official residences, such as those of the President or Prime Minister, turned into protests outside private residences of leading politicians and eventually mayors and senior civil servants.
• In the last decade, protesters regularly gathered in front of the home of then-Attorney General Avichai Mandelblit demanding he indict Prime Minister Netanyahu (he eventually did) and even in front the home of a senior figure in the Ministry of Health who was associated with organising the early lockdowns and vaccination efforts. Yesterday’s riot is the first time such a protest descended into violence and property damage.
• The riot in Alon Shvut comes on the backdrop of days of civil disturbances by parts of the ultra-Orthodox public opposed to ending the draft exemptions. Earlier this week, ultra-Orthodox demonstrators blocked major highways and even the rail line that connects Tel Aviv to Jerusalem and Ben Gurion airport, causing significant disruptions to the entire transportation system.

What’s happened: On Wednesday the Knesset voted to elect Michael Rabello as the next State Comptroller in a controversial vote likely to be challenged in the Supreme Court.

• The position of State Comptroller, sometimes also translated into English as State Ombudsman, is formally independent of all party and political affiliation. The election of Michael Rabello, an attorney who has represented Netanyahu and his family over years, is seen by many of the Government’s critics and even some of its supporters as a significant breach with decades of existing practice.
• The election of the Comptroller, like the election of State President, is formally done by a secret ballot of members of Knesset. If no candidate secures a 61 vote majority in the first ballot, the vote goes to a runoff where only a simple majority is needed. In yesterday’s first-round vote, Rabello had 57 votes and retired Supreme Court Justice Yosef Elron had 60 votes.
• According to the rules, this meant a second round of voting. It was at this point that coalition MK’s were seen photographing themselves on their personal telephones with their ballot papers in hand, as if to document whom they were voting for.
• It was speculated that this was done under pressure from party leaders, and the vote was immediately suspended, with the Knesset’s legal counsel emphasising that photographing ballot papers was illegal as it subverted the purpose of the secret ballot.
• Nonetheless, when the vote was renewed, coalition MK’s were still seen photographing their own votes, and the final result was 61 for Rabello and only 57 for Elron.
• Israeli media outlets, to say nothing of opposition politicians, were scathing in their critique of the process. Both the Yesh Atid party and the independent NGO, The Movement for Quality Government, have already filed briefs with the Supreme Court asking it to invalidate yesterday’s vote.
• The chairman of Yesh Atid, former Prime Minister Yair Lapid called the election “tainted.” Naftali Bennett, also a former Prime Minister and leader of the combined list ‘Together’, created by merging his new party with Yesh Atid, described the process as “not a free election, but rather an extortion.”

Election manoeuvring: Israel’s Parliament voted today in a preliminary reading in favour of a bill to dissolve the 25th Knesset. Motion was supported by 110 MKs from both government and opposition opening formally the path to early general election.

• ⁠The bill will now return to the House Committee, where the government can determine the pace, and then returns to the plenum for a vote on its first reading.
• ⁠It will then be returned to the committee, and only then will it be introduced to the plenum for a vote on its second and third reading, at which point an election date will be set.
• ⁠To appease his ultra-Orthodox allies, Prime Minister Netanyahu has revived legislation intended to resolve the impasse over ultra-Orthodox conscription. This is also set to be debated today.
• ⁠Israel will therefore see three crucial debates and votes today, which will help set the stage for the upcoming Knesset election. The election is due to be held this autumn. Originally scheduled for 27 October, it is now likely to be brought forward to avoid a clash with the anniversary of the October 7 massacre.

What’s happened: A bill to dissolve the Knesset has been introduced, with the backing of all the coalition parties. Formally, dissolving parliament leads to early elections.

• The bill was presented by Coalition Chairman Ofir Katz from the Likud and is intended to allow the Likud to control the process of dissolving the Knesset and the election timetable.
• The move came after Degel HaTorah announced it would push its own bill to dissolve the Knesset.
• The Likud move follows the impasse over legislation regarding conscription for ultra-Orthodox men. A statement by the Ashkenazi ultra-orthodox Degel HaTorah faction, one part of the United Torah Judaism party, said that “We are sick and tired of futile actions designed to buy time and distract attention, only for it to be claimed in the end that there is no majority. We have notified the coalition management that we oppose the amendment to the Continuity Law and, per [rabbinic instructions], we are acting to dissolve the Knesset as soon as possible.”

Context: The Likud move is essentially designed to control the narrative over who decides when the Knesset is dissolved.

• The earliest practical date for “snap” elections is September of this year. With elections scheduled for October 27 2026 anyway, the impact of “early” elections would be to shorten the current Knesset’s four-year term by approximately one month.
• Negotiations over a conscription bill have been intensifying for months, and the promise by Prime Minister Netanyahu that a bill would be passed to the satisfaction of the ultra-Orthodox parties in the governing coalition was key to securing their support for a budget earlier this year. But earlier this week, the Prime Minister informed his coalition partners that there was no majority for passing such a bill, and those partners moved immediately to dissolve the Knesset.
• The current dissolution proposal does not name a date, though two dates have already been bruited in local media.  By law in Israel, general elections are held on Tuesdays and are paid days off from work. The Shas party is said to prefer September 15, which would fall during the High Holy Days, and would be expected to motivate its voter base. Degel HaTorah is said to prefer September 1, which is normally the first day of school for all schools in Israel, except those that are ultra-Orthodox. A paid holiday would presumably delay that by a day.
• While the ultra-Orthodox parties debate preferred dates for elections, the Prime Minister and his governing Likud party, together with the entire coalition, have a pressing interest in adjusting the date that has nothing to do with the legislative impasse over the conscription law.
• An election in October will happen just as Israelis are marking three years since the traumatising October 7 attack, something the governing coalition as a whole does not believe will be to its advantage.
• The current date, October 27, is particularly problematic because the standard Israeli way of writing the date (27.10) lends itself so easily to graphic manipulation in a way that recalls the standard way of writing October 7 (7.10), that no opposition poster, ad, banner, or video would conceivably resist incorporating into its visual campaign.
• At the same time, with the war in Iran possibly about to restart and the Gaza ceasefire hitting a decisive point where either disarmament begins or the IDF embarks on a renewed offensive inside the approximately 40% of the Strip which it does not currently control, an election campaign in the summer would be nearly impossible.
• Part of Netanyahu’s approach will be to promote his diplomatic achievements and it is in this context that his announcement of secretly visiting the UAE during the war with Iran should be seen. Until this week, nothing was publicly known about the meeting, which was apparently held on March 26 in Al Ain, an oasis city near the border with Oman.
• The Prime Minister’s Office said the visit “brought a historic breakthrough in relations” between Israel and the UAE, while the UAE Foreign Ministry angrily denied that a meeting had even taken place.
• The Foreign Ministry’s statement also denied “receiving any Israeli military delegation,” a denial that would seem to be referring to reports circulating over the past week that Israel sent an Iron Dome batter to the Emirates with Israeli soldiers to operate it during the war. Over the course of the fighting earlier this year, Iran targeted the UAE with more missiles than any other country, including Israel.
• These leaks (followed by official statements) from the Prime Minister’s Office are another indication of what the Prime Minster might hope to accomplish in the final months of this term before facing the voters.
• A diplomatic breakthrough or significant strategic achievement are the only hope the governing coalition, down in the polls by large margins since 2023, for an electoral comeback. Talk of imminent normalisation agreements with either Saudi Arabia or Lebanon has occasionally bubbled up from the Prime Minister’s milieu over recent months – and US led talks between Israel and Lebanon are set to resume today in Washington – but so far nothing of the sort has come to pass.

Looking ahead: In no poll does the current coalition of right-wing, religious-nationalist, and ultra-Orthodox parties come close to a majority in the Knesset.

• Polls over the past two years consistently show the coalition, which commands 68 seats in the current parliament, returning with 48 to 52 seats (the Jewish opposition parties generally poll between 57-61 while the Arab parties are generally polling at approximately 10 seats). Even among right-wing voters, draft deferments for ultra-Orthodox men are extremely unpopular.
• The coming weeks will  see last-ditch attempts to pass legislation that either will be unlikely to secure a majority in the next parliament or could affect the outcome of the coming election.
• Among other matters on the agenda are the proposal to split the position currently held by the Attorney General into two or even three different positions. This proposed reform would formally result in a situation more in line with other parliamentary democracies, but it is regarded with suspicion by the Opposition who see it as an attempt to quash the Prime Minister’s corruption trial as well as a way of forcing through future legislation that might otherwise be moderated on constitutional grounds.
• Also under consideration is a lowering of the electoral threshold, which both parliamentary blocs, stung by recent experiences of “vote wasting” may yet support.