What’s happened: A massive coordinated barrage of rocket and missile fire on northern Israel was carried out by Hezbollah and Iran yesterday evening, marking a significant escalation in the Lebanese front of the war, which opened on March 2 with a much smaller Hezbollah attack on northern Israel.
- 200 Hezbollah rockets were fired on northern Israel, with a smaller barrage from Iran also hitting Israel’s north at the exact same time. Interceptions were carried out by Iron Dome, as the new laser-based Iron Beam interceptor is not yet operational.
- In the hours prior to the attack, rumours circulated in Israel of an impending escalation without specific details. As the hour approached, Home Front Command urged all Israelis in the country’s north to remain close to shelters. Most of the projectiles were intercepted or landed in open fields. Two Israelis were lightly injured in the attack.
- Following the coordinated attack on northern Israel, the IDF launched a massive airstrike on Lebanon, focusing on Hezbollah strongholds such as the Dahiya quarter of Beirut. The IDF reported destroying ten different Hezbollah command posts and dozens of rocket launchers.
- Lebanese authorities report that since the fighting began last week 700,000 people have been displaced. Official death tolls list 439 men, 45 women, and 86 children, without any breakdown of combatants and non-combatants.
- The destruction of Iranian air defences has opened the skies of Iran to further attacks on regime targets, while the volume of Iranian missile fire on Israel continues to decline.Israeli aircraft struck regime targets throughout the day yesterday, including the headquarters of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), the IRGC air force command centre, the IRGC military academy, and various sites connected to the Basij militia that is notorious for its human rights breaches and crackdown against January’s mass protests that killed tens of thousands.
- Unnamed US sources were quoted in Israeli media saying that Iran was running out of missile launchers, and that within days it would cease to be able to mount significant missile attacks on its neighbours. Air strikes on the regime-affiliated bank meant that it was unable to pay salaries to civil servants or the military, something US officials believe will hasten the regime’s collapse. The American assessment is that the IRGC and the Basij have sustained thousands of casualties, that their bases and headquarters are all largely destroyed, and that communications between unit commanders and forces in the field is partial at best.
- Prime Minister Netanyahu and Finance Minister Smotrich announced yesterday that they were putting the controversial bill which would formalise draft exemptions for the Haredi public on hold in order to retool the 2026 budget bill and pass it by the mandatory deadline of March 31. According to Israeli law, if no budget is passed by that date, parliament is automatically dissolved and a snap election is called. The Government is now calling for an across-the-board cut of 3% in all ministries to pay for the war.
Looking ahead: Two major strategic dilemmas lurk for Israeli and American decision makers as the war continues.
- In Lebanon, Israel has to decide whether to broaden its strikes beyond narrow Hezbollah targets. It is keen for Lebanon to feel the pressure of the ceasefire violations, and this is crucial for any future deterrence as well. On the other hand, recent pronouncements from Beirut hold open the possibility that Lebanon may finally be serious about reining Hezbollah in itself and possibly even negotiating a peace deal with Israel, something Israel would be reluctant to sabotage if indeed it is a real possibility.
- The issue of Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium (HEU) has not gone away, though its current whereabouts and status are shrouded in mystery since the US bombing in on the Fordow facility last June in Operation Midnight Hammer. Media reports indicate that both the US and Israel have drawn up plans for a potential ground operation using special forces at the site. Removing the HEU was a key demand of the US in the unsuccessful round of negotiations that preceded the outbreak of hostiles on February 28.


