LATEST

Peace Partners, Normalisation and Coexistence

Key background
  • Israel’s Declaration of Independence from May 1948 included the paragraph, “We extend our hand to all neighbouring states and their peoples in an offer of peace and good neighbourliness, and appeal to them to establish bonds of cooperation and mutual help with the sovereign Jewish people settled in its own land. The State of Israel is prepared to do its share in a common effort for the advancement of the entire Middle East.”
  • Egypt was the first Arab state to make peace with Israel, concluding a peace treaty in 1979, signed between Prime Minister Menachem Begin and President Anwar Sadat.
  • In 1993 Israel and the Palestinian Liberation Organisation (PLO) signed the Declaration of Principles on the White House lawn and launched the Oslo peace process.
  • Israel returned to Washington a year later when Israel and Jordan signing of a peace agreement.  The treaty was signed by Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin and King Hussein and established formal diplomatic relations between the two countries.
  • In 2020 Prime Minister Netanyahu signed the Abraham Accords.  These are a series of US-brokered normalisation agreements between Israel, the UAE, Bahrain, and Morocco. While it was originally hoped that Sudan would also join the Accords, these ambitions have been delayed by the country’s civil war.

Updated April 16, 2024

Israel considers response to Iranian attack

What’s happened: The Israeli war cabinet met yesterday to discuss Israel’s response to Iran’s attack on Israel on Saturday night. (For details and initial analysis of the attack see BICOM’s briefing.)

  • Kan Radio summarises Prime Minister Netanyahu as saying at the meeting that Israel must respond, but must do so judiciously.
  • Visiting the IAF Nevatim base targeted by Iran, IDF Chief of Staff Halevi said “Iran wanted to damage the State of Israel’s strategic capabilities. This is something that has never happened before. When we look ahead, we are weighing our steps and this strike, with so many cruise missiles and UAVs on Israeli territory, will be met with a response.”
  • IDF Spokesperson Hagari said that “the range of options that the State of Israel has at its disposal is broader and bigger” than that available to Iran.
  • Israel’s western allies, including the UK, France, and Germany, continue to follow the Biden administration in urging Israel to respond cautiously. Speaking in the House of Commons yesterday, Prime Minister Sunak condemned an Iranian attack which “sought to plunge the Middle East into a new crisis… The scale of the attack,” he said, “and the fact that it was targeted directly at Israel are all without precedent.”
  • Sunak also urged Israel to show “restraint” in its response, a point echoed by Foreign Secretary Cameron, who told LBC that the UK was “saying Israel has a right to respond but we do not support a retaliatory strike. There are times where we have to be smart as well as tough, where we have to use head as well as heart.”
  • Israeli Defence Minister Gallant spoke again with his US counterpart Lloyd Austin yesterday. Austin “reiterated steadfast US support for Israel’s defence and reaffirmed the strategic goal of regional stability.” In calls to other European and Middle Eastern counterparts, Austin said that “while the United States does not seek escalation, we will continue to defend Israel and US personnel.”
  • The Chinese foreign minister and his Iranian counterpart also spoke, with official Chinese media reporting that Hossein Amir-Abdollahian told Wang Yi that Iran would “handle the situation well and spare the region further turmoil”.
  • Israeli Foreign Minister Katz, meanwhile, has announced that he has written to 32 countries urging them to impose sanctions on Iran’s missile program and to declare the IRGC a terrorist organisation. Katz said on X (formerly Twitter) that he was “leading a political attack against Iran,” designed to “contain and weaken” it. Iran “must be stopped now — before it is too late.”

Context: Israel’s western allies, while strongly condemning Iran and pledging their continued support in combating Iranian attacks on Israel, have urged Israel to show restraint in its response to prevent further regional escalation.

  • In weighing its response, therefore, Israel is forced to balance the need to maintain deterrence following an unprecedented Iranian attack consisting of over 300 missiles and UAVs, and protecting the emerging anti-Iranian Israeli-western-Arab alliance which was illustrated during the attack.
  • Israeli commentators are warning that a strong Israeli response could imperil this alliance, which was demonstrated for the first time on Saturday night and included Israel, the US, UK, France, and “moderate” Arab states including Jordan and Saudi Arabia.
  • Reports this morning claim that Israel has assured Arab allies, including Jordan, Egypt and the Gulf states, that its response would not implicate them. This follows Iranian threats that regional allies of Israel would pay a price for cooperation with an Israeli response.
  • Iran’s official media specifically mentioned that Jordan would be the next target in the event that it aided or joined Israel in responding to the Iranian attack.
  • Reports out of the US this morning also claim that Israel will likely focus its response not on Iran directly, but on its proxies – potentially Hezbollah and/or -based militias. Such a response would be calculated to provoke a less severe counter-response from Iran than a direct attack on Iranian soil would.
  • While Jordan took direct action in striking Iranian drones and missiles travelling over its airspace on Saturday night, Israeli reports claim that Egypt, Bahrain, Morocco, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia were all also in “close contact” with Israel during the attack.
  • Two days before the attack on Israel, Iranian officials briefed their counterparts in the Gulf countries on the structure and timing of the plan for the attack, to enable them to secure the airspace. Following US pressure, Saudi Arabia and Egypt subsequently shared intelligence about those plans.
  • According to a report in the Wall Street Journal, Saudi Arabia and the UAE agreed to share information with the US and opened their airspace to fighter jets, shared radar surveillance information, and, in some cases, provided their own forces to help and intercept the attack.
  • However, pushing back on reports that Saudi Arabia had aided Israel, informed sources told Al Arabiya that Saudi Arabia did not participate in the interception of Iranian drones and missiles.
  • While Israel has enjoyed normalised relations with Egypt and Jordan for decades, this emerging alliance represents the bearing of fruit of the Abraham Accords process (which saw Israel normalise relations with Bahrain, Morocco, the UAE) and the progress made towards a similar agreement with Saudi Arabia.
  • All these regional states recognise that the threat from Iran is shared with Israel by them all.
  • Before the October attacks by Hamas, normalisation between Israel and Saudi Arabia was thought to be progressing. In late September 2023, Netanyahu and Biden discussed the issue when they met on the sidelines of the UNGA in New York. In an extensive English language interview to Fox News, released shortly after the Netanyahu-Biden meeting, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) confirmed that “every day we get closer” to a normalisation deal.
  • The 2020 Abraham Accords, as well as seeing Israel being moved from the European theatre to the US Central Command (CENTOM) in 2021, facilitated the ability of Israel and Arab states’ militaries to share intelligence and to cooperate with one another.
  • Summarising the new alliance, Ariel Kahana writes in Israel Hayom today that “a new bloc has broken out of its shell, has spread its wings and built its muscles: Israel, the West and Arab countries, together against Iran.”

Looking ahead: Israel has reportedly agreed with the US that any response will be coordinated with Washington. This follows disquiet from US officials over the fact that it was not notified in advance prior to the assassination of IRGC commander Mohammad Reza Zahedi in Damascus two weeks ago.

April 11, 2024

Israel and Indonesia to normalise relations?

Israel and Indonesia to normalise relations? 

What’s happened: According to reports, Israel is set to normalise relations with Indonesia.

  • The move is set to be part of Indonesia’s bid to join the intergovernmental Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), with negotiations having taken place over the last three months.
  • According to revelations from Yediot Ahronot, OECD Secretary General Mathias Cormann wrote to Indonesia two weeks ago indicating that its membership was contingent on it establishing diplomatic relations with all member states, including Israel, and that membership would need to be ratified by all member states, including Israel.
  • Israeli Foreign Minister Katz has handled negotiations on the Israeli side, with the move to a successful conclusion indicating that the process has recovered from Jakarta’s public criticism of Israel’s war in Gaza and its support for South Africa’s genocide case against Israel at the International Court of Justice (ICJ). Indonesia also filed its own case against Israel at the ICJ in January.

Context: Indonesia is the world’s largest Muslim state, by population, and a normalisation of relations with Israel would prove a significant breakthrough in the US vision of a Middle East and wider Muslim world at peace with the Jewish State.

  • It is thought that normalisation was close to fruition in the autumn of last year, before October 7th shifted the dynamic.
  • October 7th and the war in Gaza also interrupted progress towards normalisation with Saudi Arabia – just as they were intended to do by Iran and Hamas. Securing this normalisation with the leader of the Arab world was a key plank in the Biden Administration’s foreign policy agenda.
  • The Indonesian normalisation process was begun during the tenure of outgoing Indonesian President Joko Widodo, and is supported by President-Elect Prabowo Subianto, known to be a long-time advocate of normalisation.
  • A Memorandum of Understanding was apparently agreed in September 2023, indicating the two nations’ wish to advance and expand the process of the Abraham Accords, which saw the UAE, Bahrain, and Morocco normalise relations with Israel.
  • Even prior to these breakthroughs, Israeli-Indonesian trade had long taken place quietly but regularly, mostly in the field of agri-tech and to the value of about $500 million per year.
  • A signal of the thaw in relations and the move to normalisation was provided on Tuesday, when Israel cooperated with an Indonesian aid airdrop into Gaza. Israel had previously refused to allow Turkey and Qatar – other states without normalised relations – to do so.

Developments in Gaza: The IDF yesterday killed three sons of Hamas Political Bureau Director Ismail Haniyeh in an airstrike in the Shati refugee camp in northern Gaza. Four of the men’s children, three girls and a boy, were also killed in the attack.

  • The IDF said Amir, Muhammad, Hazem Haniyeh were “on their way to carry out a terror attack in the central Gaza Strip,” and were targeted in a real time operation (ie not as part of a pre-planned operation) and without the knowledge of either the prime or defence minister.
  • The IDF were explicit that the three had been targeted due to an imminent threat, and not due to their family connections. Amir was known to be a squad commander in Hamas’s military wing, while the army also said that at least one of the three had been involved in holding Israeli hostages kidnapped on October 7th.
  • Ismail Haniyeh responded publicly to the news. As well as “thank[ing] God for bestowing upon us the honour of their martyrdom,” he said that regardless of “the size of the sacrifice, Hamas won’t surrender,” and that anyone who thought such actions would pressure Hamas into accepting a hostage deal was “deceiving himself”.
  • The killing of Haniyeh’s sons came in the midst of US-brokered hostage release negotiations between Israel and Hamas, and as Israel awaits a formal Hamas response to the latest proposal. Preliminary public responses from Hamas officials indicate that the proposal will be rejected.
  • Due to the nature of real-time operations, they can be approved at the operational level, without consultation with either top military brass or the political echelon. The strike on the Haniyehs is thought to have been approved by an IDF colonel.
  • The presence of the three men in one of the northern-most corners of Gaza is a clear indication that despite IDF achievements in the north, the Hamas presence remains.
  • Iran’s President Ebrahim Raisi expressed his “deep sorrow” to Haniyeh.

The Iranian threat: The US and Israel have intensified joint preparations for an anticipated Iranian response to the killing in Damascus last week of IRGC commander Brig. Gen. Mohammad Reza Zahedi.

  • Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei said yesterday that “Israel must be punished, and they will pay for their mistakes.”
  • Israeli Defence Minister Gallant, on a visit to an Iron Dome unit, said “Whoever tries to attack us will be faced with strong defence and right after with strong response in his territory.”
  • The US and Israel are bracing for an Iranian response, either on “soft targets” like overseas embassies, or a direct attack on Israel using ballistic missiles, drones and cruise missiles.
  • Gallant’s comments are being interpreted as a sign that in response to any Iranian strike, Israel is likely to look to strike Iranian territory directly. The Israeli Air Force this week held an exercise in Cyprus, alongside Cypriot counterparts, simulating an attack on a long-range target.
  • The fear of serious regional escalation is acute, with tensions between Israel and Iran’s Hezbollah proxy on Israel’s northern border also at a high-point. Reports indicate that the US has prevailed on its regional allies, including Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, and Iraq to convey messages to Iran urging it not to escalate.
  • In remarks made at a press conference in Washington yesterday alongside Japanese Prime Minister Kishida Fumio, President Biden said the US “commitment to Israel’s security against these threats from Iran and its proxies is ironclad. Let me say it again, ironclad. We’re going to do all we can to protect Israel’s security.”
  • Confused reports emerged last night, as the Iranian Mehr news agency, which has ties to the regime, announced that all air traffic over Tehran was suspended due to “military drills”. The agency then quickly removed its post on X (formerly Twitter) and denied ever having posted it.

Looking ahead: Gen. Erik Kurilla, commander of the U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM), is set to arrive in Israel today to coordinate responses to any Iranian attack.

  • Hamas’s formal response to the latest hostage proposal remains outstanding.

October 4, 2023

Iran threatened by potential Israel-Saudi normalisation

What happened: Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei spoke out yesterday on the possibility that Israel and Saudi Arabia would establish formal diplomatic relations.

  • Khamenei said, “The Islamic Republic’s clear stance is that the governments that are betting on normalisation with the Zionist regime will lose. They are making a mistake. That regime will pass from the world. As the Europeans say, they are betting on the wrong, losing horse. That cancer will be wiped away by the Palestinians and the forces of resistance. The Zionist entity’s situation today doesn’t encourage moving nearer to it, and Arab countries must not make that mistake.”
  • He continued, “the Zionist regime brims with hatred and anger not only towards Iran, but towards other countries in the region.”
  • “The Zionists aren’t pleased with the countries that surround them. They also hate Egypt, Iraq and . Why? Because the Zionist regime’s main goal was to conquer territories from the Nile to the Tigris and Euphrates, and that hasn’t happened. Those countries didn’t allow that. It is written in the Quran, ‘Be angry and die of anger,’ and that is what will be. The Zionists are dying now, and they will ultimately die of anger.”
  • Prime Minister Netanyahu said in response, “whereas Khamenei’s terrorist regime exports destruction and devastation, Israel advances progress and peace. Just as Iran didn’t stop us from securing the Abraham Accords, Iran won’t stop us from expanding even further the circle of peace for the benefit of the citizens of Israel, the peoples or the region and all of humanity.”
  • Defence Minister Gallant weighed in too, saying “the murderous terrorist regime in Iran has already succeeded in pulverising several countries it has seized control of, and now it is trying to sabotage peace efforts with idle threats. Iran will continue to act to sow terrorism and destruction, and Israel will act to achieve security for its citizens and peace in the Middle East.”

Context: The US is leading efforts to reach Israel and Saudi normalisation, with the two most significant challenges being the Saudi demand to achieve indigenous capacity to produce civilian nuclear power and the level of relief measures the Palestinians will receive as part of the deal.

  • Israel’s security establishment and the Atomic Energy Commission are currently studying the ramifications of Saudi nuclear energy, whether safeguards can prevent it from developing a weapon, and concerns it will spark regional nuclear proliferation.
  • They will also assess if a US-Saudi defence pact will limit Israel’s qualitative military edge in the region.
  • Khamenei’s comments are being interpreted in Israel as a sign of distress.
  • In an additional signal of the fragility of the recent Saudi-Iranian rapprochement, the Saudi football team Al-Ittihad this week cancelled its Asian Champions League match against an Iranian team in Isfahan at the last minute, protesting the placing of a bust of Qasem Soleimani, the late commander of Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Quds Force, at the entrance to the pitch.
  • Khamenei’s comments followed the latest strikes against Iranian military infrastructure in eastern close to the Iraqi border, with Syrian media accusing Israel of attacking several targets in the Deir ez-Zor area in eastern on Monday night.
  • Israel regularly targets Iranian military infrastructure in Syria as part of its ‘campaign between the wars’ but rarely formally takes credit. These latest strikes are notable in that they took place over 700km from Israel’s border and struck up to five separate military targets including:
    • An Iranian weapons depot.
    • A factory assembling precision-guided missiles.
    • Syrian miliary radars, to incapacitate the Syrian air-defence systems from being used effectively.
  • Syrian sources also claimed two Syrian soldiers were injured.
  • This was the fifth time Syria has claimed Israeli airstrikes in the last month. In the past, senior Israeli officials have claimed Israeli airstrikes have hit hundreds of targets inside Syria to prevent Iranian military entrenchment.
  • The location of these latest strikes feeds concerns that Iran is looking to re-establish its land corridor for weapons smuggling from the Iraqi-Syrian border, through to the Syrian Golan and Lebanon.
  • In a more positive development, after no official visits a second Israeli government minister in two weeks visited Saudi Arabia yesterday. Communications Minister Shlomo Karhi (Likud) will address an international media conference in Riyadh.

Looking ahead: US Secretary of State Blinken is expected to visit Israel later this month as part of the coordinated effort to reach a normalisation agreement.

  • Defence Minister Gallant is then expected to visit Washington for further discussions on the security implications of a deal and the ongoing Iranian threat.

September 22, 2023

Diplomatic efforts ongoing to reach Israel–Saudi normalisation

Photo by Avi Ohayon (GPO)

  • There are a series of intense four-party diplomatic negotiations ongoing to see if normalisation between Israel and Saudi Arabia can be reached.
  • The US, Israel, Saudi Arabia, and the Palestinians each have a list of demands and priorities, with the challenge being to reconcile them.
  • The confluence of interests is such that normalisation has become a key priority for all three major parties to the process: US President Biden, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, and Saudi Crown Prince bin Salman.
  • Unlike their harsh criticism and boycotting of the Abraham Accords process, the Palestinians have engaged with the Saudis to represent their interests.

Israel-US track

  • Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu met Wednesday with US President Biden. The two spoke for an hour at a hotel in Manhattan. Despite Netanyahu waiting nine months and meeting in a New York hotel and not the White House, nevertheless Biden’s approach appeared warm, in recognition of their long standing friendship of over four decades.
  • Biden immediately eased concerns by suggesting that Netanyahu will be invited to the White House before the end of the year.
  • In the context of a deal with Saudi Arabia, Israel’s three key objectives are:
    • Building a united front against Iranian aggression.
    • Bringing an end to the century long Arab-Israeli conflict.
    • Securing enhanced US security support whilst maintaining Israeli freedom of action.
  • On preventing an Iranian nuclear weapon, Netanyahu said that “that shared goal of ours can be achieved by a credible military threat, crippling sanctions and supporting the brave men and women of Iran who despise that regime and who are our real partners for a better future.”
  • On the significance of Israel-Saudi normalisation, Netanyahu said: “I think such a peace would go a long way… to advance the end of the Arab-Israeli conflict, achieve reconciliation between the Islamic world and the Jewish state.”
  • With both the Saudis and Americans eager for a deal to include a significant gesture to or progress with the Palestinians, Netanyahu appeared open to the idea, saying that normalisation could “advance a genuine peace between Israel and the Palestinians.” He nonetheless clarified that “Palestinians should be part of the process but shouldn’t have a veto over the process.”
  • A senior administration official later suggested that Netanyahu knew he would “have to do some very hard things” including “some component related to the fundamental issue between Israelis and Palestinians.”
  • On judicial reform, a White House statement suggested that Biden expressed “concern about any fundamental changes to Israel’s democratic system, absent the broadest possible consensus.” He further championed the “democratic values that lie at the heart of our partnership, including checks and balances in our systems.”

The Saudi position

  • In his most extensive English language interview ever, released shortly after the Netanyahu-Biden meeting, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) confirmed that “every day we get closer” to a normalisation deal.
  • Saudi priorities include:
    • Security guarantees from the US, in the form of a defence pact and the sale of advance weapons, e.g. F-35 fighter jets.
    • US approval of and assistance with a civilian nuclear programme. Including, most controversially, uranium enrichment on Saudi soil.
    • Israeli concessions towards the Palestinians.
  • “For us, the Palestinian issue is very important,” he said. “We need to solve that part… And we have a good negotiations strategy til now. We got to see where we go. We hope that will reach a place that will ease the life of the Palestinians and get Israel as a player in the Middle East.”
  • The most striking admission of the interview came when MBS confirmed that an Iranian nuclear weapon would trigger the Saudi pursuit of one, which experts fear would elicit a further nuclear arms race in the region featuring Turkey and Egypt.
  • Regarding the prospect of an Iranian nuclear weapon, MBS warned that “If they get one, we have to get one, for security reasons and the balance of power in the Middle East. But we don’t want to see that.”
  • MBS, for his part, sees a deal in the context of his wider ‘2030’ effort to modernise the Saudi kingdom.

Saudi demands on the Palestinians’ behalf

  • A senior delegation acting on behalf of Palestinian Authority (PA) Chairman Mahmoud Abbas recently visited Riyadh to make explicit their demands. Reports have suggested that in a radical departure from the traditional Palestinian position demanding immediate recognition of a Palestinian state, the PA has indicated a willingness to accept an interim agreement were it to include the following components:
    • Transferring more areas of the West Bank to Palestinian autonomy.
    • A commitment that East Jerusalem will be the capital of a future Palestinian state.
    • An Israeli commitment towards an eventual two-state solution.
    • The reopening of the PLO office in Washington DC, previously closed by President Trump.
    • Approving orderly payments for Palestinian prisoners without Israeli reductions.
    • The reopening of Palestinian institutions in East Jerusalem.
    • The Palestinians gaining full representation at the United Nations.
    • The freezing of Israeli building in new West Bank settlements.
    • The issuing of Palestinian building permits in Area C (currently under full Israeli control).
    • The strengthening of the PA’s security forces.

The US Agenda

  • Normalisation is a huge opportunity for the US to redraw the diplomatic map with historic consequences.
  • By bringing Israel and Saudi together, the US reinforces its alliances and influence in the Middle East and thwarts growing Chinese-Russian-Iranian confluence of interests.
  • All of which would be a major diplomatic dividend for Biden to take into presidential elections in a year’s time.

There remain weighty challenges to reconciling each side’s demands

  • The ability to enrich uranium on Saudi soil is of profound importance to MBS.
  • The initial posture of both Israel and the US is one of shared concern over the threat of nuclear proliferation. On Saudi nuclear enrichment, it is understood that US and Israeli concerns are identical. A senior Israeli official said of Washington and Jerusalem’s approach to the nuclear question: “we’ve seen completely eye to eye right from the start. On what we cannot do and what it is we might be able to do,” adding that Israel would insist on “a lot” of safeguards.
  • Netanyahu has tasked the Ministry of Defence, Mossad, the IDF, and Israel’s Atomic Energy Commission to fully assess the ramifications of a Saudi civilian nuclear project and present a united position.
  • Under what is known as the ‘Begin Doctrine’, the consistent Israeli policy is to oppose the spread of nuclear capability in the region. Even if the current Saudi ruling elite is in earnest in its insistence that its ambitions are purely civilian, it cannot be guaranteed that future regimes will not use the technology to embark on a weapons programme, especially in the event of Iran acquiring this capability.
  • In an effort to reach a normalisation agreement, creative options are being pursued, including Saudi collaboration with US counterparts on a potential US-run uranium-enrichment operation in Saudi Arabia. US oversight over enrichment would provide some reassurance on the purely civilian character of the programme.
  • Safeguards could include the ability to perform a remote shutdown of enrichment facilities, though this technology is not fool-proof.
  • The list of Palestinian demands above is being viewed as a “wish-list”, not all of which can be realistically delivered. For example, the US do not accept the idea of full Palestinian representation at the UN at this point. Israel is also highly unlikely to accept a settlement freeze or the transfer of territory.
  • Earlier this week, 12 Likud MKs sent a letter to Netanyahu warning that “We will agree to peace only in exchange for peace,” and that there could be “no concessions on the homeland.”
  • Netanyahu’s determination to secure normalisation could find him in conflict with his own party’s right flank and coalition partners Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben Gvir who will assuredly oppose any concessions to the White House on either the Palestinian or judicial reform fronts.
  • The Biden administration could face opposition from the left flank of the Democratic party which is wary of closer ties with the Saudis (a wariness previously shared with Biden himself) and likely to push for Israeli concessions to the Palestinians more substantial than those sought by the Saudis or even the Palestinian Authority.
  • Nor are Biden’s hurdles provided only by to those to his left. The defence alliance also demanded by the Saudis, including the sale of advanced US weapons, will require two-thirds of the Senate to ratify. Thus, even if he succeeds in persuading all Democratic senators to vote in favour, a substantial number of rival Republicans will also have to support it. Knowing that they will be affording Biden a major victory in the leadup to a presidential election, this could be a tough sell. Biden’s estimation is that only Netanyahu (and his close advisor Ron Dermer) can convince sufficient Republicans to cross the aisle.
  • All parties to the potential deal are aware that its achievement is likelier under a Democratic administration than a Republican, since Democratic lawmakers are unlikely to set their concerns over both the Saudi regime and the Israeli coalition aside in support of a Republican administration. The window of opportunity is thus ever narrowing.

Looking ahead: At 1415 UK time, Netanyahu will address the UN. He will expound the benefits of ‘widening the circle of peace’ and the necessity of the international community addressing Iranian nuclear ambition, regional destabilisation, and international terrorism.

  • Netanyahu may also highlight the economic dividends of an Israel-Saudi agreement, building upon Biden’s G20 announcement of a trade corridor from India, through the Middle East, to Europe, and the opportunities for all parties to expand economic and energy cooperation.
  • Due to the Palestinian demands and his own domestic issues, observers will be keenly watching the language the prime minister uses on the Palestinian issue.
  • The complexities of the situation described above mean that normalisation negotiations are likely to continue over the next few months.
  • The White House confirmed that an invitation to Netanyahu for a formal visit would be forthcoming for some time before January 2024.
  • Biden and Netanyahu also agreed to work towards holding a third summit between Israel, the Palestinian Authority, the US, Egypt and Jordan in the near future, after those at Aqaba and Sharm el-Sheikh.
  • US comments also referenced “the likely convening soon of a ministerial meeting” of the Negev Forum, which will bring together Israel, the US, Egypt, and Abraham Accord countries. Israeli officials suggested it will be held in Morocco next month.
  • Were Israel and Saudi Arabia to reach agreement with the US on a defence pact, it is likely that other regional allies (e.g. Jordan, Egypt, the UAE) will look for similar guarantees.
  • In the longer term, achieving normalisation with Saudi Arabia would likely open up Israel to normalised relations with the wider Muslim world, including Malaysia, Indonesia, and Pakistan.

September 20, 2023

Netanyahu meets with world leaders in New York

Photo by Avi Ohayon (GPO)

What happened: Prime Minister Netanyahu held a series of meetings yesterday on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York.

  • All the meetings focused on bilateral ties, with most also addressing broader regional issues, including the Iranian threat and the potential normalisation with Saudi Arabia.
  • Netanyahu was accompanied by Minster Dermer, National Security Adviser Hanegbi, senior staff and Director of Mossad Barnea.
  • Netanyahu was ‘greeted’ by dozens of demonstrators outside their hotel protesting the domestic judicial reform. In addition, hundreds gathered in Times Square to protest.
  • Earlier in the trip, Netanyahu was forced to clarify comments that accused the Israeli demonstrators of joining forces with Iran and the PLO. According to Netanyahu’s office, “When the Prime Minister used the term ‘joining forces,’ he was referring to the fact that while the Prime Minister of Israel represents the State of Israel on the UN stage, Israeli citizens, together with supporters of the PLO and the BDS movement, would be protesting outside at the same time, something that has never happened before. One can only hope that the Israeli protesters will take at least a few minutes also to protest against those who deny Israel’s right to exist.”
  • Netanyahu first meeting yesterday was with Paraguayan President Santiago Peña, confirming that the Paraguayan Embassy in Jerusalem would reopen, as would the Israeli Embassy in Asunción.
  • In parallel yesterday, in Jerusalem the new British Ambassador to Israel Simon Walters presented his credentials to President Herzog. The President noted, “Britain has an important standing in the Middle East. There are many areas for our governments to discuss, chief among them the issue of Iran.”
  • The Ambassador responded saying, “Iran is not only a threat to the Middle East, but a threat to the entire world. The British Government’s position regarding Iran has been very firm.”

Meeting Ukrainian President Zelenskyy: This was their first meeting since Russia invaded Ukraine.

  • Netanyahu emphasised that Israel would continue to assist Ukraine on humanitarian issues, but due to Israel’s sensitive predicament with Russia’s role in , would not be supplying military aid.
  • Zelenskyy is keen for Israel to do more, but said that overall he is satisfied with relations with Israel.
  • Israel recently announced that it would extend the financial assistance given to Ukrainian refugees in Israel.
  • It was notable that at the photo-op at the beginning of the meeting, after the formal handshakes with the Israeli delegation, Zelenskyy gave Mossad Director Barnea a warm hug, suggesting familiarity.

Meeting Turkish President Erdogan: This was the first time Erdogan and Netanyahu have ever met in person.

  • After several years of tension, bilateral relations have improved over the last couple years, particularly in trade and economic ties. The thaw began when Erdogan reached out to President Herzog in summer 2021.
  • Last year an Iranian terror cell targeted Israelis in Istanbul. The attack was thwarted in a joint effort between Mossad and Turkish intelligence. Yesterday Netanyahu thanked Erdogan for that security cooperation.
  • They also exchanged reciprocal invitations to visit each other’s county. Turkey celebrates the 100th anniversary of its Independence later this year. Erdogan is understood to be keen to include a visit to Al-Aqsa in Jerusalem to mark the occasion.

Meeting German Chancellor Olaf Scholz:  Netanyahu thanked the chancellor for his commitment to Israel, for Germany’s commitment to the security of Israel, and for preserving the special relationship.

  • As Germany is part of the E3, the pair focused on Iran’s belligerent behaviour, most recently preventing the IAEA inspectors from accessing their nuclear installations.
  • The two countries enjoy strong bilateral security cooperation. Germany supplies Israel with advanced submarines, whilst Israel recently agreed to supply Germany with the advance Arrow 3 missile defence system, worth £3bn.
  • Relating to the prospect of an agreement with Saudi Arabia, Netanyahu told Scholz it would not involve significant concessions to the Palestinians. He compared it to the Abraham Accords, saying, “their significance is the removal of the Palestinian veto on the peace process with the Arab states.” Instead, Netanyahu said that he was prepared to make economic and civilian good will gestures.

Inside the General Assembly: In his remarks, Biden championed “the groundbreaking effort… to connect India to Europe through the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Israel [which] will spur opportunities and investment across two continents.”

  • “This is part of our effort,” he continued, “to build a more sustainable, integrated Middle East.  It demonstrates how Israel’s greater normalisation and economic connection with its neighbours is delivering positive and practical impacts even as we continue to work tirelessly to support a just and lasting peace between the Israelis and Palestinians — two states for two people.”
  • During Iranian President Raisi’s speech, Israel’s Ambassador to the UN Gilad Erdan walked through the assembly holding a picture of Mahsa Amini, the Iranian woman whose killing by the regime sparked mass protest last year, with the caption “Iranian women deserve freedom now”. Erdan then walked out of the hall in protest against the UN’s enabling of “the butcher of Tehran”.

Looking ahead: All this is a prelude to Netanyahu’s most important meeting. This afternoon at 1515 UK time, Netanyahu will meet with US President Joe Biden. This is to be their first meeting since Netanyahu’s re-election nine months ago, and is expected to focus on the possibility of a US led deal on Israel-Saudi Arabian normalisation.

  • Later today Netanyahu is also due to meet with UN Secretary-General António Guterres and South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol.
  • Israel’s Foreign Minister Cohen is also in New York and due to meet more than 20 foreign ministers including from the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Egypt, Greece, Singapore, and Azerbaijan.

August 30, 2023

Fallout over foreign minister’s Libya meeting continues

What happened: Accusations continue to fly in Israel following reports of a secret meeting in Rome that caused major demonstrations in Libya and led to the firing of the Foreign Minister.

  • On Sunday evening, following rumours on social media, Israel released a statement confirming that Foreign Minister Eli Cohen last week met with the Libyan Foreign Minister Najla Mangoush in Italy “with the aim of studying options of cooperation and ties between both countries, as well as the protection of the Libyan Jewish heritage.”
  • Protests subsequently erupted in Libya and Mangoush was fired by the Libyan Prime Minister Abdul Hamid al-Dbeibeh.
  • Having fled to Istanbul, she claimed that the Prime Minister authorised her to disclose the meeting and added that she and Cohen met spontaneously at an event at the Italian Foreign Ministry, “It was a casual, unplanned meeting. We did not engage in diplomatic steps or fostering relations.”
  • Libya’s Foreign Ministry also emphasised that that the meeting between the two sides was “unplanned and incidental.” It added that the meeting did not include “discussions, agreements, or consultations,” and that Tripoli “outright rejects” normalisation with Israel.
  • Cohen was roundly criticised by Israeli politicians and security officials. Opposition Chairman Yair Lapid said: “This is what happens when Eli Cohen, a person with no background in the field, is appointed foreign minister for just a year. The incident with the Libyan foreign minister was amateurish, irresponsible, and a serious failure in judgment. This is a morning of national disgrace and risking human lives for the sake of a headline.”
  • Channel 12 News reported officials from Mossad: “The minister’s behaviour caused enormous damage to a relationship that was quietly and cautiously cultivated in recent years. He burned the bridge. That is irreparable.”
  • Walla News reported that American sources believe the publication of the meeting caused “great damage to the normalisation”.
  • Israeli political officials argued that it had been agreed that the meeting would be publicised. Cohen responded to criticism, saying that “It’s a shame that political rivals who failed to advance any meaningful achievement have rushed to react without knowing the details and have accused [me] of a leak that never happened. The attacks won’t deter the Foreign Ministry and its employees.”
  • On Tuesday morning, a statement from the Prime Minister’s Office demanded that cabinet ministers inform PM Netanyahu of any covert diplomatic activity. Two government sources told Haaretz that Netanyahu knew that the Foreign Ministry was in contact with the Libyan government based in Tripoli. They were unable to confirm what was agreed on between him and Cohen regarding the announcement.

Context: Since the Abraham Accords in 2020 between Israel, UAE, Bahrain and later Morocco, Israel has sought to expand its relations in the Arab and Muslim world.

  • Libya has largely been at war since a NATO-backed uprising in 2011. It split in 2014 between warring eastern (Benghazi) and western (Tripoli) factions, though open conflict has mostly paused since a ceasefire in 2020.
  • In March 2021, a Government of National Unity (GNU) based in Tripoli with Dbeibeh as the internationally-recognised prime minister was installed through a UN-backed process in 2021 aimed at holding elections later that year which were cancelled because of disputes over the rules.
  • In March 2022 the country was divided again when the eastern-based parliament formed the rival Government of National Stability (GNS) under the leadership of prime minister Fathi Bashagha.
  • Israel and Libya have never enjoyed formal ties. However, contacts reportedly took place between the former ruler Muammar Gaddafi’s son Saif al-Islam and Israeli officials.
  • In 2021, the son of Khalifa Haftar, who ruled the eastern part of Libya, reportedly visited Israel for a secret meeting with Israeli officials in which he offered to establish diplomatic relations between the two countries in return for Israeli support.
  • In January Dbeibeh reportedly discussed the idea of normalising relations with Israel with CIA Director William Burns. Sources in Libya suggest Dbeibeh was attempting to buy Washington’s backing for his government.
  • The Mossad’s Tevel Division is responsible for Israel-Libya relations and has cultivated those ties over a long period of time, behind the scenes and with a great deal of sensitivity.

Looking Ahead: Questions remains as to how the domestic response in Libya will impact attempts to promote normalisation between Israel and other Arab and Muslim countries in the near future.

  • Nonetheless, discussions between US, Israeli, and Saudi officials over normalisation between Israel and Saudi Arabia continue.
  • Israeli and American officials fear that given the response to the revelation of the meeting, other countries might be deterred from publicising their covert relations with Israel public.

February 3, 2023

Netanyahu meets Chad President

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu met yesterday with the visiting President Mahamat Déby of Chad to formalise the two countries’ official relations by consecrating the African state’s new Ramat Gan-based embassy.

  • Netanyahu welcomed Déby by hailing the process as part of “Israel’s return to Africa and Africa’s return to Israel”. He noted: “We see these relations as extremely important—with a large country in the heart of Africa” and that “we have common goals of security, prosperity, and stability.”
  • On arrival in Israel on Tuesday night, Déby was met by Mossad chief David Barnea. The two went on to a celebratory meeting at Mossad headquarters.
  • In his own meeting with Déby, Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant “raised the importance of narrowing the influence of Iran and Hezbollah in the Sahel region, as a key to ensuring stability, and thwarting the export of terrorism.”
  • Déby also met with Foreign Minister Eli Cohen, with the two discussing Israel’s humanitarian work in Chad, including the Mashav programme which trains Chadian medics in emergency and trauma care.
  • In a further step towards normalisation with a Muslim-majority African state, Foreign Minister Eli Cohen met with Sudanese leader Abdel Fattah al-Burhan in Khartoum yesterday, and confirmed on his return that a full peace treaty was scheduled to be signed by the end of the year, once Sudan has transitioned from a military to a civilian regime.
  • “Today’s visit… lays the foundations for a historic peace agreement with a strategic Arab and Muslim country” and “will promote regional stability and contribute to the national security of the State of Israel,” Cohen said.

The Chadian and Sudanese moves represent a success for Netanyahu’s longstanding campaign for improved relations with both Muslim-majority and African states.

  • In 2016, Netanyahu became the first Israeli Prime Minister to make a diplomatic trip to Africa in decades, as he visited Uganda, Kenya, Rwanda and Ethiopia. Later that year, Israel hosted senior ministers and officials from 13 West African states for a conference on agriculture.
  • In July 2021, former Chadian Prime Minister Moussa Faki Mahamat invited Israel to hold member status at the African Union, a move later revoked in a campaign led by Algeria and South Africa.
  • Both Netanyahu and Déby paid tribute to the latter’s father, Idriss Déby Into, who ruled Chad for more than thirty years before being killed fighting rebels in 2021.
  • The elder Déby had initiated the move to fully normalise Chadian relations with Israel in 2019, following decades of clandestine cooperation but official distance. In November 2018, he paid a surprise visit to Israel.
  • As one of the more militarily powerful members of the G5S states (Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Mauritania and Niger), Chad bears much of the burden in stemming terrorism in the sub-Saharan Sahel region- a role for which it has sought Israeli support.
  • In 2018, Morocco (which normalised relations with Israel with the Abraham Accords in 2020) cut diplomatic ties with Iran, accusing it of using Hezbollah forces in the Sahel to support the Polisario Front group which fights an armed struggle for an independent Western Sahara.
  • Israel has no embassy in Chad, and it remains to seen if this will change or if relations will continue to be handled by Ben Bourgel, Israel’s ambassador in Senegal, who presented his diplomatic credentials to Déby last year and whose brief also includes Guinea and The Gambia.
  • In addition to cooperation on security, trade, and agriculture, as well as support in international bodies, normalisation with Chad would provide the potential for use of its airspace and ground facilities. This would allow flight times between Israel and South America to be reduced by several hours.
  • Channel 12, meanwhile, reports a likely connection between the Chadian and Sudanese processes, with al-Burhan and his deputy, Mohamed Hamdan Daklo, having visited Chad earlier this week.
  • The Sudanese move to resume the normalisation process follows its suspension after a military coup removed the previous regime in 2021.
  • Sudan became the fourth state to sign normalisation agreements with Israel in October 2020, as part of the Abraham Accords and in return for removal from the US list of state sponsors of terrorism.
  • In May 2022, in the wake of the coup, the Biden Administration announced that it was cancelling aid to Sudan, including that related to the Abraham Accords.
  • Despite this move, the current process to finalise normalisation upon Sudan’s transition to a civilian regime appears to have been encouraged by the US, and a subject of discussion during Secretary of State Anthony Blinken’s recent visit to Israel.
  • Cohen previously visited Sudan in January 2021, when intelligence minister in the Netanyahu-Gantz government, while Israeli-Sudanese relations has been a key project for Ronen Levy (codenamed Maoz), the new Director General of the Foreign Ministry.
  • Cohen noted that the peace deal with Sudan would allows Sudanese residents of Israel to return to the country.
  • Sudan was, for decades, a key part of the wider Muslim world’s hostility to Israel. In 1967, it hosted the Arab League’s notorious Khartoum Conference at which the “three nos” – to peace, to recognition, and to negotiation – were adopted.
  • From the late 1970s, it became a refuge for Palestinian militants and a sponsor of Palestinian terror, particularly Hamas. In 2012, Israel carried out a missile strike on a Khartoum weapons factory it alleged was supplying Palestinian groups.
  • Between the late 1980s and the mid 2010s, Sudan also enjoyed warm relations with Iran. From 2014, however, it moved away from Tehran’s orbit and towards that of Iran’s enemy in Saudi Arabia.
  • The fall of its long-time dictator Omar al-Bashir in 2019 saw fears that Iran might exploit the vacuum to reintroduce partnership, but such proved not to be the case, and normalisation will see Sudan join Chad in seeking mutual anti-terror cooperation with Israel.
  • Both Chad and Sudan continue to face criticism for their human rights records.

Israeli officials are briefing that the Chadian and Sudanese agreements might soon be followed by other normalisation deals with Mauritania and Indonesia.

  • Netanyahu is likely to pursue the extension of the Abraham Accords to include other Middle Eastern states, with Saudi Arabia representing the ultimate prize.

February 3, 2023

Chad opens embassy in Israel and Sudan deal moves closer

What happened: Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu met yesterday with the visiting President Mahamat Déby of Chad to formalise the two countries’ official relations by consecrating the African state’s new Ramat Gan-based embassy.

  • Netanyahu welcomed Déby by hailing the process as part of “Israel’s return to Africa and Africa’s return to Israel”. He noted: “We see these relations as extremely important—with a large country in the heart of Africa” and that “we have common goals of security, prosperity, and stability.”
  • On arrival in Israel on Tuesday night, Déby was met by Mossad chief David Barnea. The two went on to a celebratory meeting at Mossad headquarters.
  • In his own meeting with Déby, Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant “raised the importance of narrowing the influence of Iran and Hezbollah in the Sahel region, as a key to ensuring stability, and thwarting the export of terrorism.”
  • Déby also met with Foreign Minister Eli Cohen, with the two discussing Israel’s humanitarian work in Chad, including the Mashav programme which trains Chadian medics in emergency and trauma care.
  • In a further step towards normalisation with a Muslim-majority African state, Foreign Minister Eli Cohen met with Sudanese leader Abdel Fattah al-Burhan in Khartoum yesterday, and confirmed on his return that a full peace treaty was scheduled to be signed by the end of the year, once Sudan has transitioned from a military to a civilian regime.
  • “Today’s visit… lays the foundations for a historic peace agreement with a strategic Arab and Muslim country” and “will promote regional stability and contribute to the national security of the State of Israel,” Cohen said.

Context: The Chadian and Sudanese moves represent a success for Netanyahu’s longstanding campaign for improved relations with both Muslim-majority and African states.

  • In 2016, Netanyahu became the first Israeli Prime Minister to make a diplomatic trip to Africa in decades, as he visited Uganda, Kenya, Rwanda and Ethiopia. Later that year, Israel hosted senior ministers and officials from 13 West African states for a conference on agriculture.
  • In July 2021, former Chadian Prime Minister Moussa Faki Mahamat invited Israel to hold member status at the African Union, a move later revoked in a campaign led by Algeria and South Africa.
  • Both Netanyahu and Déby paid tribute to the latter’s father, Idriss Déby Into, who ruled Chad for more than thirty years before being killed fighting rebels in 2021.
  • The elder Déby had initiated the move to fully normalise Chadian relations with Israel in 2019, following decades of clandestine cooperation but official distance. In November 2018, he paid a surprise visit to Israel.
  • As one of the more militarily powerful members of the G5S states (Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Mauritania and Niger), Chad bears much of the burden in stemming terrorism in the sub-Saharan Sahel region- a role for which it has sought Israeli support.
  • In 2018, Morocco (which normalised relations with Israel with the Abraham Accords in 2020) cut diplomatic ties with Iran, accusing it of using Hezbollah forces in the Sahel to support the Polisario Front group which fights an armed struggle for an independent Western Sahara.
  • Israel has no embassy in Chad, and it remains to seen if this will change or if relations will continue to be handled by Ben Bourgel, Israel’s ambassador in Senegal, who presented his diplomatic credentials to Déby last year and whose brief also includes Guinea and The Gambia.
  • In addition to cooperation on security, trade, and agriculture, as well as support in international bodies, normalisation with Chad would provide the potential for use of its airspace and ground facilities. This would allow flight times between Israel and South America to be reduced by several hours.
  • Channel 12, meanwhile, reports a likely connection between the Chadian and Sudanese processes, with al-Burhan and his deputy, Mohamed Hamdan Daklo, having visited Chad earlier this week.
  • The Sudanese move to resume the normalisation process follows its suspension after a military coup removed the previous regime in 2021.
  • Sudan became the fourth state to sign normalisation agreements with Israel in October 2020, as part of the Abraham Accords and in return for removal from the US list of state sponsors of terrorism.
  • In May 2022, in the wake of the coup, the Biden Administration announced that it was cancelling aid to Sudan, including that related to the Abraham Accords.
  • Despite this move, the current process to finalise normalisation upon Sudan’s transition to a civilian regime appears to have been encouraged by the US, and a subject of discussion during Secretary of State Anthony Blinken’s recent visit to Israel.
  • Cohen previously visited Sudan in January 2021, when intelligence minister in the Netanyahu-Gantz government, while Israeli-Sudanese relations has been a key project for Ronen Levy (codenamed Maoz), the new Director General of the Foreign Ministry.
  • Cohen noted that the peace deal with Sudan would allows Sudanese residents of Israel to return to the country.
  • Sudan was, for decades, a key part of the wider Muslim world’s hostility to Israel. In 1967, it hosted the Arab League’s notorious Khartoum Conference at which the “three nos” – to peace, to recognition, and to negotiation – were adopted.
  • From the late 1970s, it became a refuge for Palestinian militants and a sponsor of Palestinian terror, particularly Hamas. In 2012, Israel carried out a missile strike on a Khartoum weapons factory it alleged was supplying Palestinian groups.
  • Between the late 1980s and the mid 2010s, Sudan also enjoyed warm relations with Iran. From 2014, however, it moved away from Tehran’s orbit and towards that of Iran’s enemy in Saudi Arabia.
  • The fall of its long-time dictator Omar al-Bashir in 2019 saw fears that Iran might exploit the vacuum to reintroduce partnership, but such proved not to be the case, and normalisation will see Sudan join Chad in seeking mutual anti-terror cooperation with Israel.
  • Both Chad and Sudan continue to face criticism for their human rights records.

Looking ahead: Israeli officials are briefing that the Chadian and Sudanese agreements might soon be followed by other normalisation deals with Mauritania and Indonesia.

  • Netanyahu is likely to pursue the extension of the Abraham Accords to include other Middle Eastern states, with Saudi Arabia representing the ultimate prize.

February 1, 2023

Blinken meets Sisi in Cairo

What happened: US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken completed his visit to the region having first met Egyptian President Sisi in Cairo and then engaged with a range of Israeli figures before travelling to Ramallah to see Palestinian Authority (PA) Chairman Mahmoud Abbas.

  • During his meeting with Abbas, Blinken expressed “sorrow for the innocent Palestinian civilians who have lost their lives in escalating violence over the last year”, while also condemning Palestinian celebrations of last Friday’s deadly terror attack in Jerusalem.
  • Blinken also criticised the PA for its announcement of a suspension of security cooperation with Israel.
  • Later, in his final press conference back in Jerusalem, Blinken professed “deep concern about the current trajectory”, with his fears for the prospects for a two-state solution focussed chiefly on Israeli actions and proposals by coalition figures.
  • “The United States will continue to oppose anything that puts that goal further from reach,” he said, “including but not limited to settlement expansion, legalisation of illegal outposts, moves toward annexation of the West Bank, disruptions to the historic status quo at Jerusalem’s holy sites, demolitions and evictions, and incitement and acquiescence to violence.”
  • At their Monday meeting, both Netanyahu and Blinken stressed the closeness of US-Israeli ties and urged the extension of the Abraham Accords, though with the Prime Minister acknowledging Blinken’s reservation that “these efforts are not a substitute for progress between Israelis and Palestinians”. “Expanding the circle of peace,” said Netanyahu, “working to close, finally, the file of the Arab-Israeli conflict I think would also help us achieve a workable solution with our Palestinian neighbours.”
  • In his own comments, Blinken hinted at US concerns over the new Israeli government’s policy direction by noting that the bilateral relationship was one which included “holding ourselves to the mutual standards we’ve established; and by speaking frankly and respectfully, as friends do, when we agree and when we do not.”
  • He then became more specific, with remarks widely interpreted as urging Israeli caution on judicial reform. Stressing US-Israel shared values, he said: “That includes our support for core democratic principles and institutions, including respect for human rights, the equal administration of justice for all, the equal rights of minority groups, the rule of law, free press, a robust civil society.”
  • In an implicit endorsement of the protest movement, Blinken added that “the vibrancy of Israel’s civil society has been on full display of late.” In an unusual move, he also found time to meet with a range of civil society leaders, including representatives of organisations promoting coexistence, ultra-Orthodox employment, and LGBTQ rights.
  • In remarks designed to assuage American concerns over judicial reform, Netanyahu referred to the US and Israel as “two strong democracies which will remain, I assure you, two strong democracies.”
  • On Iran, while Netanyahu placed the focus on the Islamic Republic’s nuclear activity, Blinken was careful to include its arming of Russia in his remarks. Adding, “Russia’s ongoing atrocities only underscore the importance of providing support for all of Ukraine’s needs – humanitarian, economic, and security.”
  • Blinken continued this theme in his discussions with Foreign Minister Eli Cohen. “We appreciate Israel’s humanitarian assistance,” said Blinken, adding that “we look forward to discussing what more can we do.”
  • In his meeting with Blinken, Defence Minister Yoav Gallant championed the “exceptional” recent joint military exercise, “Juniper Oak”, as emblematic of the close and unbreakable bond of cooperation enjoyed by both nations.
  • Blinken’s visit came in the wake of Friday’s deadly terror attack; the largest ever US-Israeli joint military exercise; and American concern over the new Israeli government’s judicial reform agenda.
  • The visit follows US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan’s trip two weeks ago and a more recent trip made by CIA director William Burns.
  • Blinken’s interventions on democracy and judicial reform came as the government’s proposals continue to prove hugely divisive. Yesterday again saw hi tech workers join protests against the planned changes.
  • Blinken’s channelled President Herzog’s recent calls by recognising that “building consensus for new proposals is the most effective way to ensure they’re embraced and that they endure.”
  • The PA announced the suspension of security cooperation in the wake of last Thursday’s Israeli raid in Jenin. It has previously withdrawn cooperation while retaining some on the ground cooperation. Indeed, in conversation with CIA director William Burns on Sunday, Abbas hinted for the first time that intelligence sharing with the Israelis was ongoing and that full engagement could be resumed in future.
  • Over 180 Palestinians have been killed since the beginning of 2022, though in Israel’s assessment over 90% were members of terror organisations or active combatants.
  • Cohen took office promising to “talk less” on Russia-Ukraine, but has recently confirmed that he is shortly to become the first Middle Eastern foreign minister to visit Kyiv since the start of the Russian invasion.
  • The Juniper Oak military exercise, widely interpreted as a signal to Iran of US-Israeli preparedness, was the largest joint exercise the two states have conducted. It included close to 8,000 troops combined and tested some of the militaries most advanced technology.
  • Also on the Israel – US bilateral agenda is Israel’s access to the US visa waiver programme, with talks ongoing.
  • Netanyahu plans to visit the US soon for further bilateral discussions on Iran and other shared security concerns.
  • Ahead of Cohen’s Kyiv visit, it remains to be seen whether Israel will respond to Blinken’s urging and alter the careful balance it has struck on Russia-Ukraine. In remarks to CNN immediately after Blinken’s departure, Netanyahu claimed to be “certainly looking into” increased military support to Ukraine, and highlighted Israeli cooperation in transferring a stockpile of Israeli-based US weapons to Kyiv.
  • The Knesset’s Constitution, Law and Justice Committee yesterday continued its discussions on judicial reform proposals.

February 1, 2023

Blinken completes Middle East visit

What happened: US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken completed his visit to the region having first met Egyptian President Sisi in Cairo and then engaged with a range of Israeli figures before travelling to Ramallah to see Palestinian Authority (PA) Chairman Mahmoud Abbas.

  • During his meeting with Abbas, Blinken expressed “sorrow for the innocent Palestinian civilians who have lost their lives in escalating violence over the last year”, while also condemning Palestinian celebrations of last Friday’s deadly terror attack in Jerusalem.
  • Blinken also criticised the PA for its announcement of a suspension of security cooperation with Israel.
  • Later, in his final press conference back in Jerusalem, Blinken professed “deep concern about the current trajectory”, with his fears for the prospects for a two-state solution focussed chiefly on Israeli actions and proposals by coalition figures.
  • “The United States will continue to oppose anything that puts that goal further from reach,” he said, “including but not limited to settlement expansion, legalisation of illegal outposts, moves toward annexation of the West Bank, disruptions to the historic status quo at Jerusalem’s holy sites, demolitions and evictions, and incitement and acquiescence to violence.”
  • At their Monday meeting, both Netanyahu and Blinken stressed the closeness of US-Israeli ties and urged the extension of the Abraham Accords, though with the Prime Minister acknowledging Blinken’s reservation that “these efforts are not a substitute for progress between Israelis and Palestinians”. “Expanding the circle of peace,” said Netanyahu, “working to close, finally, the file of the Arab-Israeli conflict I think would also help us achieve a workable solution with our Palestinian neighbours.”
  • In his own comments, Blinken hinted at US concerns over the new Israeli government’s policy direction by noting that the bilateral relationship was one which included “holding ourselves to the mutual standards we’ve established; and by speaking frankly and respectfully, as friends do, when we agree and when we do not.”
  • He then became more specific, with remarks widely interpreted as urging Israeli caution on judicial reform. Stressing US-Israel shared values, he said: “That includes our support for core democratic principles and institutions, including respect for human rights, the equal administration of justice for all, the equal rights of minority groups, the rule of law, free press, a robust civil society.”
  • In an implicit endorsement of the protest movement, Blinken added that “the vibrancy of Israel’s civil society has been on full display of late.” In an unusual move, he also found time to meet with a range of civil society leaders, including representatives of organisations promoting coexistence, ultra-Orthodox employment, and LGBTQ rights.
  • In remarks designed to assuage American concerns over judicial reform, Netanyahu referred to the US and Israel as “two strong democracies which will remain, I assure you, two strong democracies.”
  • On Iran, while Netanyahu placed the focus on the Islamic Republic’s nuclear activity, Blinken was careful to include its arming of Russia in his remarks. Adding, “Russia’s ongoing atrocities only underscore the importance of providing support for all of Ukraine’s needs – humanitarian, economic, and security.”
  • Blinken continued this theme in his discussions with Foreign Minister Eli Cohen. “We appreciate Israel’s humanitarian assistance,” said Blinken, adding that “we look forward to discussing what more can we do.”
  • In his meeting with Blinken, Defence Minister Yoav Gallant championed the “exceptional” recent joint military exercise, “Juniper Oak”, as emblematic of the close and unbreakable bond of cooperation enjoyed by both nations.

Context: Blinken’s visit came in the wake of Friday’s deadly terror attack; the largest ever US-Israeli joint military exercise; and American concern over the new Israeli government’s judicial reform agenda.

  • The visit follows US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan’s trip two weeks ago and a more recent trip made by CIA director William Burns.
  • Blinken’s interventions on democracy and judicial reform came as the government’s proposals continue to prove hugely divisive. Yesterday again saw hi tech workers join protests against the planned changes.
  • Blinken’s channelled President Herzog’s recent calls by recognising that “building consensus for new proposals is the most effective way to ensure they’re embraced and that they endure.”
  • The PA announced the suspension of security cooperation in the wake of last Thursday’s Israeli raid in Jenin. It has previously withdrawn cooperation while retaining some on the ground cooperation. Indeed, in conversation with CIA director William Burns on Sunday, Abbas hinted for the first time that intelligence sharing with the Israelis was ongoing and that full engagement could be resumed in future.
  • Over 180 Palestinians have been killed since the beginning of 2022, though in Israel’s assessment over 90% were members of terror organisations or active combatants.
  • Cohen took office promising to “talk less” on Russia-Ukraine, but has recently confirmed that he is shortly to become the first Middle Eastern foreign minister to visit Kyiv since the start of the Russian invasion.
  • The Juniper Oak military exercise, widely interpreted as a signal to Iran of US-Israeli preparedness, was the largest joint exercise the two states have conducted. It included close to 8,000 troops combined and tested some of the militaries most advanced technology.
  • Also on the Israel – US bilateral agenda is Israel’s access to the US visa waiver programme, with talks ongoing.

Looking ahead: Netanyahu plans to visit the US soon for further bilateral discussions on Iran and other shared security concerns.

  • Ahead of Cohen’s Kyiv visit, it remains to be seen whether Israel will respond to Blinken’s urging and alter the careful balance it has struck on Russia-Ukraine. In remarks to CNN immediately after Blinken’s departure, Netanyahu claimed to be “certainly looking into” increased military support to Ukraine, and highlighted Israeli cooperation in transferring a stockpile of Israeli-based US weapons to Kyiv.
  • The Knesset’s Constitution, Law and Justice Committee yesterday continued its discussions on judicial reform proposals.

Make a media enquiry

BICOM ANALYSIS

FATHOM JOURNAL

BICOM’s academic journal, Fathom, suggests these related articles:

Those Who Tried: Conversations with the Peace Processors

Newsletter sign-up

Please enter your information below to subscribe to our weekly newsletter and stay updated and informed.

Donate to BICOM

At BICOM, we rely on the generosity of people like you to keep our website and services running. Your donation, no matter the size, makes a real difference. Please consider supporting us today.