Gaza Strip: The IDF is now operating in four central areas of Al-Boureij, Al-Maghazi, Nuseirat and Deir al-Balah.

• All these areas include Hamas fighters with approximately 1000 Hamas operatives in Al-Boureij.
• In addition, the IDF continues to operate in the north and south of the Gaza Strip.
• IDF Chief of Staff Halevi gave an assessment on Tuesday that the IDF is close to concluding the: “dismantlement of Hamas’s battalions in the northern Gaza Strip. Now we are making a concerted effort in the southern Gaza Strip, Khan Yunis, the camps in the centre and so on. We are ratcheting up military pressure in various ways, with force and guile. That pressure will facilitate the attainment of the war’s objectives: dismantling Hamas and getting the hostages back.”
• The fighting continues to exact a heavy cost. Four IDF soldiers were killed on Tuesday night, which follows several fatalities over the last few days. Overall since the ground offensive began 164 soldiers have fallen with over 870 injured.
• The Palestinian fatalities have been far higher. According to Hamas figures, over 20,000 Gazans have been killed. The IDF estimates that this includes over 7,000 Hamas operatives. The Hamas Ministry of Health casualty number also does not distinguish between those killed by Israel and those by Hamas. Almost 2,000 Hamas fired rockets have fallen inside Gaza.
• Despite IDF operations, Hamas are still able to launch rockets into Israel. On Tuesday a rocket struck the Synagogue in Kibbutz Saad.
• This morning sirens sounded again in various communities in the Gaza periphery.

Iran: Iranian foreign minister threatens Israel following the assassination of a senior Revolutionary Guards officer in Damascus.

• Razi Mousavi was an Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) operative, with a rank of Brig. Gen. He was an important member of the Iranian military apparatus in Syria and had been close to Qasem Soleimani before the latter’s assassination by the US in January 2020.
• Mousavi was involved in arms smuggling operations from Iran, arms production in Syria and channeling money to Hezbollah and other Shiite militias. His assassination suggests Israel has escalated its battle against Iranian proxies to also target Iranian operatives themselves.
• Israel has been accused of killing Iranian officials in Syria before, whether in targeted assassination operations or in attacks on weapons’ storehouses and other targets. Monday’s strike seems to have been aimed at killing Mousavi himself and sending a deterring message to Iran.
• Separately, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) confirmed that Iran has returned to a rate of enriching to 60 per cent around 9 kg of uranium a month (previously 3 kg,). 60 per cent is close to weapons grade.

Lebanon: Hezbollah continues to launch rockets, mortars, drones and anti-tank missiles at both Israeli civilian and military targets.

• On Tuesday 9 IDF troops were wounded while helping an Israeli civilian who had been previously wounded by an anti-tank missile that was fired at the St. Mary’s Greek-Orthodox Church in the northern village of Iqrit. The IDF killed the terrorist who fired the anti-tank missile.
• Hezbollah attacks on Tuesday also included strikes on Moshav Dovev, Moshav Even Menachem and Kibbutz Adamit.
• According to Lebanese reports, three people were killed last night in an Israeli Air Force strike on a house in Bint Jbeil, understood to be home of a Hezbollah commander.
• Overall the Hezbollah have announced 129 fatalities of their operatives.
• This morning 18 rockets were fired towards Rosh Hanikra with 6 intercepted. In addition, 10 mortars and rockets were fired at IDF positions on Mount Dov.

Context: Defence Minister Gallant said yesterday that Israel is under attack on seven fronts and has responded in no fewer than six. He was referring to Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, the West Bank, Yemen and Iran.

• Iran is connected to all these fronts and although Israel has not formally claimed responsibility for the death of Mousavi, the targeted assassination of a senior IRGC has been perceived as a message to the Iranians.
• In the Israeli government’s calculus all these fronts need to be considered.
• Whilst the government’s priority remains dismantling Hamas inside Gaza, there are growing calls both internally and externally to address the day after fighting.  In the most recent war cabinet meeting earlier this week PM Netanyahu reportedly refused to discuss the plan to change the scope of IDF combat in the Gaza Strip.
• The next stage of the war is supposed to reduce the number of IDF troops in the Gaza Strip.
• Netanyahu’s top confidant Minister Dermer is in Washington to coordinate a plan for the next phase. The Biden administration favours a revitalised Palestinian Authority (PA), whilst Israel has rejected any possibility of Mahmoud Abbas’ PA being in charge of Gaza.
• Dermer is expected to discuss Israel’s plans to transition to a low-intensity war, which is may happen towards the end of January, as well as questions pertaining to the civil administration of Gaza in the months ahead.
• Dermer is also expected to raise Israel’s concerns about a shortfall in the supply of munitions for planes, and to ask the US to expedite arms shipments to Israel, especially so as to prepare for a possible escalation in hostilities along the northern border.
• According to Yediot Ahronot, IDF officials say they estimate that 20 per cent of Hamas’s military troops have been killed so far. While the paper suggests others have a higher estimate, but none talk about complete decimation. Most of Hamas’s top military officials have survived and there is strong speculation that they have deliberately placed Israeli hostages in their close proximity, a move which further complicates IDF plans.
• Although Hamas has lost most of its governmental strongholds, it hasn’t lost its control over the population. In a display of control earlier this week, Hamas policemen were seen on the streets of southern Gaza.
• Despite IDF’s current deployment across Gaza, it is yet to operate in the area of the Philadelphi Corridor on the southern border. This area is seen as crucial for disabling Hamas smuggling tunnels, but is highly sensitive due to the proximity of Egypt.
• The hostages issue remains prominent inside Israel. Relatives of the 129 people still in Hamas captivity continue to demonstrate and demand the government prioritises their release.
• On Monday, Hamas rejected a proposed Egyptian plan that would involve a ceasefire in exchange for the release of more hostages, and lead to a broader agreement involving a permanent ceasefire along with an overhaul of leadership in Gaza.

Looking ahead: Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Halevi cautioned yesterday, that the war “will continue for many months more, and we will use different methods so that the achievement is maintained over time.”

• In an effort to increase the supply of humanitarian aid, Israel has reached agreement in principle with Cyprus and the UK to establish a maritime corridor for supplying goods and equipment to the Gaza Strip in the future.

Hostages: Hamas released its latest video, showing proof of life of three older men: Chaim Peri, Amiram Cooper and Yoram Metzger.

• The men appeared gaunt, with their beards cropped deliberately Islamic style and read off a Hamas prepared message pleading for their release.
• The video is the latest example of Hamas psychological warfare, with speculation that these three elderly men were chosen deliberately, to influence the next stage of a potential deal.
• Meanwhile in Poland, Mossad Director David Barnea, Qatari Prime Minister Al Thani, and CIA Director Burns met to discuss a potential new hostage deal.
• Israeli media reports suggest that the gaps between Israeli and Hamas expectations are large, with Israel prepared to offer a brief pause in fighting after the release of hostages, and Hamas insisting that a longer ceasefire be effected before any hostages are freed.
• A new deal is thought to be the most immediate priority of the Biden Administration, and Burns instructed accordingly. US eagerness stems from a desire to both see Israeli hostages return home, and for the fighting in the Gaza Strip to be reduced in intensity.
• Israel insists that any pause in fighting would be followed immediately by a return to intensive operations in pursuit of its war aims. Israel also argues that any Hamas concessions on hostages are due largely to military achievements, and that further progress will yield more hostage releases in the future.
• The sense of national shock and anger prompted by last Friday’s friendly fire deaths of three hostages is also thought to have persuaded the Israeli government that the time is ripe for a fresh hostage negotiation.
• Israel’s negotiating position is thought to be:
  • All negotiations with Hamas will be conducted under fire and there is to be no pause in the fighting until hostages are freed.
  • Second, the deal will resume from the point it broke off, meaning all the women still being held hostage should be freed first.
  • Third, Israel is insisting that the terms for the release of each category of hostage be clear, after the women, then the elderly and ill men.

US Secretary of Defence in Israel: Lloyd Austin arrived in Israel on Monday along with Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Charles Brown.

• They met Prime Minister Netanyahu, Defence Minister Gallant and Minister Gantz and focused on a range of issues, including the Gaza offensive, the Houthis’ attacks on Israel and on international shipping and the ongoing tensions between Israel and Lebanon.
• Prime Minister Netanyahu highlighted the commonality in all those threats, saying, “this is a battle against the Iranian axis, the Iranian axis of terror.”
• Secretary Austin noted this is his fourth visit to Israel as Secretary of Defence and his second since October 7th.  He said, “I’m here to underscore what President Biden has said again and again: our commitment to Israel is unshakeable.“
• Austin added, “America’s commitment to Israel is unwavering and no individual, group or state should test our resolve.”
• Austin announced, “in the Red Sea, we’re leading a multinational maritime taskforce to uphold the bedrock principle of freedom of navigation. Iran’s support for Houthi attacks on commercial vessels must stop. Now, we’ll continue to provide Israel with the equipment that you need to defend your country… including critical munitions, tactical vehicles and air defence systems.”
• He also added, “we must get more humanitarian assistance in to the nearly two million displaced people in Gaza and we must distribute that aid better.
• Later, in their joint press conference Defence Minister Gallant said, “our common enemies around the world are watching. They know that Israel’s victory is the victory of the free world, led by the United States. Our war is against the Hamas terrorist organisation, not the people of Gaza. We are fighting a brutal enemy that hides behind civilians.”
• Gallant continued, “billions of dollars have been invested in Gaza, money that should have gone to civilian infrastructure, and instead, was used to build a network of tunnels, hundreds of kilometres long, equipped with military facilities.”
• Gallant added, “in northern Gaza our troops have eliminated thousands of terrorists, destroyed military infrastructure, and dismantled most of the battalions operating in the area.”
• “In southern Gaza, In Khan Younis, we are precise and focused on eliminating Hamas leadership and military infrastructure.”
• Regarding IDF conduct, Gallant said, “unlike our enemies, we are defending our values, and we operate according to international law. The IDF is operating to minimise harm to the civilian population. We are also working with international partners, to facilitate the delivery of humanitarian aid. Yet, anytime we discuss humanitarian issues, we must remember, the 129 hostages still held in Gaza. This is the most humanitarian issue.”

Gaza Strip: The IDF has today announced that Master Sgt. (res.) Daniel Yacov Ben Harosh, 31 and Cpt. (res.) Rotem Yosef Levy were killed fighting in the northern Gaza Strip yesterday. Yesterday, the deaths of seven other soldiers were announced, with the total casualties since the beginning of the ground operation now standing at 131.

• Fighting continues throughout the Strip, with Israel saying it has now taken full control of Beit Hanoun in the north, and made key advances in Shajaiya.
• In Beit Hanoun, “many terrorists” were eliminated, and weapons depots, rocket launchers, underground command centres, and “significant” tunnels destroyed.
• The IDF also discovered the Beit Hanoun battalion’s main tunnel, which it says was sited deep within civilian infrastructure, including the city hall, a mosque, a football court, and a daycare centre.
• The opening of the Kerem Shalom crossing to aid has already resulted in a significant increase in total aid arriving into the Strip. 200 trucks arrived on Sunday, the first time that total has been reached since the start of the war.

The north: Hezbollah continues its attacks across the northern border. On Monday a rocket landed in an open area inside the town of Kiryat Shmona. Israel has continued the retaliation.

• Three rockets fired towards Israel from Syria fell in open areas in the Golan Heights. Israel fired on the source in response, as well as at a Syrian military position.

Context: The visit of US Secretary of Defence and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff further underscores the close coordination between Israel and the US.

• Austin also noted his visit included the opportunity for the head of the US army General Brown and the head of the Israeli army General Halevi to discuss, “the most sensitive issues on the agenda, in full transparency and trust.”
• All the shared threats are orchestrated by Iran. The US and Israel remain highly concerned over Iran’s continued uranium enrichment. The prospect of Iran reaching the nuclear threshold would have a profound influence over Israel’s military decision making.
• Whilst Hezbollah continues its attacks in the north, Israel is hoping that US diplomatic efforts bear fruit in negotiations with the Lebanese to remove Hezbollah forces from the border area. Gallant told Austin, “if such a process will not be implemented diplomatically, we will not hesitate to act.”
• According to Channel 12 News, a small Foreign Ministry team has, at the request of Foreign Minister Cohen, drafted a secret policy document for the National Security Council that will be presented to the security cabinet in the future. The document deals with both security and civilian recommendations for Gaza. On security:
  • The IDF will retain full freedom of action.
  • The Gaza Strip will be fully demilitarised and action will be taken to prevent any military build-up.
  • A buffer zone will be established.
  • A mechanism will be created to prevent smuggling along the Egyptian border (Philadelphia corridor) and to allow oversight of the Rafah crossing into Egypt.
  • Israel will maintain the maritime security zone.
• On the civilian front:
  • An international mechanism will be formed to provide humanitarian aid.
  • Managing everyday life will be an integrated combination including:
    • Key international partners.
    • International organisations that already operate in Gaza.
    • Local elements not identified with Hamas.
• Whilst this plan does not specifically mention the Palestinian Authority (PA), the final point could include them. This would appeal to the US and the international community who have explicitly called for the PA to be engaged, along with Saudi Arabia (considered the other key international partner cited above).
• However, Netanyahu has repeatedly ruled out a role for the PA.

Looking ahead: There is hope that with head of the CIA Burns invested in the hostage negotiations, he is best placed to put pressure on Qatar that can in turn influence Hamas.

• When asked about timeline at the press conference Austin said, I’m not here to dictate timelines or terms,” nevertheless the speculation in Israel suggests the US expects Israel to wrap up the ground offensive by the end of January.

Sanctions against Iran: On Thursday, the UK government announced new sanctions on Iran have now come into force.

• According to the government announcement, the new sanctions gives the UK “extensive new powers to disrupt Iran’s hostile activities in the UK and around the world.”
• They target “Iran’s decision makers” and “the head of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Quds Force and individuals linked to Iran’s relationship with Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ).”
• Part of the sanctions also focus specifically on Iran’s drone programme and naval activity.
• Foreign Secretary David Cameron said, “the behaviour of the Iranian regime poses an unacceptable threat to the UK and our partners. It continues to threaten people on UK soil and uses its influence to destabilise the Middle East through its support to armed groups, including Hamas and PIJ.”
• The UK also announced that in coordination with the US, “the first set of designations under this new regime, targeting Iran’s support for Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad… includes Esmail Qaani, who heads the IRGC Quds Force… A further seven individuals and one entity, all with links to Hamas and PIJ,” were also designated.
• Sanctions include a travel ban on those designated, and “an asset freeze preventing any UK citizen, or any business in the UK, from dealing with any funds or economic resources which are owned, held or controlled by the designated person. It is also prevent[ing] funds or economic resources being provided to or for the benefit of the designated person.”

Sanctions against Hamas and PIJ: On Wednesday the UK, (also) in coordination with the US announced new sanctions “to isolate terror group[s]”.

• The new sanctions aim to freeze assets and impose travel bans. The government explained, “the sanctions target key figures in the network that has financed Hamas, including individuals in Lebanon and Algeria. These stringent measures show that individuals linked to Hamas will not be able to escape accountability, even if they are operating from outside of Gaza.”
• Foreign Secretary Cameron declared, “Hamas has no future in Gaza.”
• The UK named seven individuals linked to Hamas to be sanctioned:
  • Mahmoud Zahar: a Gaza-based Hamas leader and co-founder.
  • Ali Baraka: the Lebanon-based Head of External Relations for Hamas.
  • Maher Obeid: a political leader who has held senior positions in Hamas.
  • Akram al-Ajouri: the Syria-based Deputy Secretary General of Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) and Leader of the Al-Quds Brigades, PIJ’s military wing.
  • Khaled Chouman and Rida Ali Khamis: who have channelled funds to Hamas through their Lebanon-based currency exchanges.
  • Aiman Ahmad Al Duwaik: an Algeria-based financier for Hamas who has helped run the organisation’s overseas investment portfolio.” I think we can lose the quote marks here

 Context: The dual sanctioning of Iran and Palestinian terror groups, is a further indicator of the unity of the US-UK-Israel alliance and the shared threat assessment of Iran.

• With so much world attention on Gaza, the sanctions against Iran come as a timely reminder that it was Iran that provides Hamas and PIJ with much of their weapons and technological military support.
• Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen are also both supported by Iran, and Iranian drones are proliferated across the region as well as supplied to the Russian military.
• The concern remains that with the spotlight away from Iran they could be making critical progress on their nuclear enrichment.
• In its announcement, the UK government further noted, “the Iranian regime’s activities undermining peace, stability and security in the Middle East and internationally” include “the use and spread of weapons or weapons technologies from Iran.”
• UK sanctions were developed in the summer, “to respond to unprecedented threats from the Iranian regime, including efforts to undermine peace and security across the Middle East and plots to kill individuals on UK soil.”
• The government announcement noted, sSince the start of 2022, the UK has responded more than 15 credible threats and plots to kill British or UK-based individuals by the Iranian regime. The regime has publicly called for the killing of these individuals and in some cases detained and harassed the individual’s families in Iran.”
• The UK proscribed Hamas’s military wing as a terrorist group in March 2001, and extended it to include the whole organisation in November 2021.
• Although the UK abstained in both recent UN Security Council and General Assembly votes calling for immediate ceasefire, Simon Walters the UK Ambassador in Israel clarified in a recent interview, “we don’t use that term [ceasefire], we say that the sooner the war ends, the better, but we haven’t called for a ceasefire because we know that the task of destroying Hamas is still not over.”
• The UK further declared that along with the US, they “stand united in their solidarity with Israel and its fight against Hamas, while being clear their actions must be in line with International Humanitarian Law. We continue to support efforts to prevent a regional escalation of the conflict and allow crucial humanitarian aid access to Gaza.”
• When Cameron visited last month, he announced the UK would give a further £30 million in humanitarian aid to the UN. In addition the UK has already sent 51 tonnes of aid to the region.
• This latest announcement builds on last month’s when the UK, “targeted Hamas’ political leader in Gaza, along with other top-ranking officials and financiers. Sanctions form part of a wider tranche of measures aimed at disrupting the group’s acts of terror, including the recently announced international taskforce set up to enable the UK and partners to share financial intelligence.”
• In an apparent effort for balance, Cameron also announced measures to be taken against violent Jewish settlers in the West Bank. Similar to the US, the UK would also institute a travel ban against “those responsible for settler violence from entering the UK.” He wrote on X that, “extremist settlers, by targeting and killing Palestinian civilians, are undermining security and stability for both Israelis and Palestinians. Israel must take stronger action to stop settler violence and hold the perpetrators accountable.”
• In parallel, US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan was the latest senior US official to visit Israel and conduct close coordination meetings with the Israeli leadership. On Thursday night he met Mossad Director David Barnea, where they focused on the “triple-layered” strategic threat from Iran, nuclear, regional proxies and partners and their support for terrorism.
• The UK’s Maritime Trade Operation (UKMTO) continues to note attacks by Iranian backed Houthis on cargo ships passing the Yemeni coastline. Israel has called for a combined international solution to the threats against the commercial shipping lanes.

Looking ahead: These new sanctions will give the UK government, “new powers to hold Iran and its decision makers to account.”

• The government reiterated that, “membership and expressing support for Hamas is an illegal act in the UK, punishable by up to 14 years in prison.”
• Despite both the UK and US’s desire to see an end of the fighting in Gaza, Defence Minister Gallant cautioned Sullivan that in order to dismantle Hamas, which had been built for years solely for terrorist goals, it would take more than a few months

What happened: Yesterday Israel announced that two people believed taken hostage on October 7 had been killed by Hamas.

• Joshua Loitu Mollel, a 21-year-old agriculture student from Tanzania who had worked in the cow shed at Nachal Oz and was abducted, is thought to have been killed in captivity, while Tal Haimi, a 41-year-old resident of Kibbutz Nir Yitzhak is thought to have been killed on October 7 and his body taken back to the Gaza Strip.
• Elsewhere, First Sgt. (res.) Elisha Levinstern, a 38-year-old resident of Harish who served with the Armored Corps, was killed in action yesterday in the southern Gaza Strip. The IDF death toll stands at 116 since the start of the ground operation.
• Fighting continued yesterday, overnight, and this morning in northern Gaza’s Shejaiya and Jabaliya and in Khan Younis in the south.
• In the northern Strip, the IDF said it had killed “many terrorists”, including in a raid on a school from which Hamas gunmen had shot at them.
• Speaking at a situation assessment meeting last night at Shin Bet headquarters, Prime Minister Netanyahu said that Israel had no option but to destroy Hamas.
• Netanyahu said, “I discern the start of Hamas breaking. I see the start, the start of their recognition that we are resolved and will continue to the end and will destroy them. I don’t think that we have any alternative.”
• White House spokesman John Kirby said that Israel will soon approve the American request to allow humanitarian aid to enter the Gaza Strip through the Kerem Shalom border crossing, which has been closed since October 7.
• Kirby also suggested that some of the steps the Israeli military has taken to prevent civilian casualties in Gaza might go further than what the US would have done if it were in Israel’s place.
• This appears to be an attempt to soften the critique by President Biden who said Israel was losing global support in the war against Hamas due to “indiscriminate bombing” in the Palestinian enclave.
• In the West Bank, an IDF aircraft attacked a squad in Jenin that threw explosive devices and endangered the troops in the course of an operation to arrest wanted men. The Palestinian Red Crescent reported that three Palestinians were killed.
• This was the second air attack in the course of the operation that began on Tuesday in Jenin and its refugee camp. The West Bank Health Ministry said that 11 Palestinians have been killed in the past three days as a result of the army’s operations.
• Elsewhere, the US Navy destroyer USS Mason shot a drone launched from a Houthi-controlled area while responding to a call from a Marshall Islands-flagged tanker in the southern Red Sea on December 13, US Central Command said on early Thursday.

Context: According to reports, American officials believe that Israel needs to change the pace and intensity of its air campaign in Gaza before Christmas.

• According to a decision of the Israeli security cabinet, the third stage of the war will entail operations to mop up pockets of resistance by means of raids that are to be conducted by IDF brigades and, if need be, by divisions as well (from the border area where the IDF will deploy).
• These will be complemented by ongoing efforts to destroy Hamas infrastructure and to reach additional deals to free hostages. According to the security cabinet, in the fourth stage of the war, the IDF is to turn civilian control over Gaza to a third party. If that doesn’t happen, Israel will continue to hold onto the territory.
• In an interview with Israeli radio, British Ambassador to Israel Simon Walters clarified the current UK position, saying, “we don’t use that term [ceasefire], we say that the sooner the war ends, the better, but we haven’t called for a ceasefire because we know that the task of destroying Hamas is still not over.”
• Above tactical military decisions, the main disagreement between Israel and the US remains ‘the day after in Gaza’. The Biden administration has said that the Palestinian Authority (PA) should play a major role in the Strip, whereas Netanyahu has ruled that out. Arab allies of the US have said they’ll only get involved in post-war reconstruction if there’s a credible push toward a two-state solution.
• The Israeli media quotes an unnamed senior US official saying that “if Netanyahu wants the Arabs to rebuild Gaza he is going to have to be flexible and agree to the PA’s entry, even if not in the immediate term, but in the longer term. If Netanyahu wants normalisation with Saudi Arabia he’s got to understand that without the PA in Gaza he won’t get anything.”
• Reports suggest that Netanyahu is also coming under pressure from within the Israeli cabinet and security establishment to pay far greater attention to ‘the day after’.
• In parallel, the scale of the PA’s unpopularity in its own West Bank was revealed in fresh polling this week, in which 92 percent called for the resignation of its President Mahmoud Abbas. The poll also showed widespread approval for Hamas’s October 7 attack: 57 percent in Gaza and 82 percent in the West Bank.
• The Israeli government continues to weigh whether to allow entry to Israel of work permit holders from the West Bank. The security and defence establishments support the move, in a bid to prevent the West Bank spiralling into further violence.

Looking ahead: Several senior American officials are arriving in Israel. US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan visited Saudi Arabia on Wednesday to meet with the Crown Prince to discuss the Gaza war and will hold meetings in Israel today and tomorrow.

• On Friday, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Charles Brown is scheduled to arrive, and Secretary of Defence Lloyd Austin is due in Israel on Monday.
• American officials will reportedly discuss the option of another deal to free hostages in exchange for a pause in fighting that would allow for more humanitarian aid to enter Gaza.
• The senior American officials visiting Israel are also expected to discuss the situation on the northern border. Israel believes there are three options: reaching an agreement that will force Hezbollah to redeploy roughly seven kilometres from the border, which will allow the residents of northern Israel to return to their homes; a war that is proactively launched by Israel; or an escalation in hostilities that devolves into full-scale war.

Gaza Strip: On Monday the IDF confirmed that, “Over 500 Hamas and Islamic Jihad terrorists were apprehended by the IDF and Shin Bet over the past month and transferred for further questioning.”

• “Since the end of the operational pause, the IDF and Shin Bet apprehended approximately 140 Hamas and Islamic Jihad terrorists in the Gaza Strip.”
• “In the past month, a total of over 350 Hamas terrorist operatives were apprehended by the IDF and Shin Bet. In addition, over 120 Islamic Jihad terrorist operatives were apprehended.”
• Some of the detainees surrendered, whilst others were captured.
• In addition to the 500, those that were identified as non-combatants were released to the safe zone in the south.
• On Monday evening IDF Spokesperson Hagari said the IDF are “intensifying their combat in the main Hamas strongholds in the Gaza Strip.”
• To emphasise their control on the ground, IDF Chief of Staff Halevi alongside head of the Shin Bet Bar held a situational assessment in the centre of Khan Yunis.
• Halevi said, ״there is big pressure here. I think that the surrendering, the people coming out and raising their hands, is also a break in their spirit. It accelerates our accomplishments, in the end, we want to progress quickly. We are securing our accomplishments in the northern part of the Gaza Strip, the entrance in the southern part of the Strip, and also deep down into the ground – all of these places, all of these intensifications, are very important for our accomplishments.”
• Defence Minister Gallant related to the fighting on Monday evening saying, “the Hamas battalions in Jabalia and Shajaiya in the north of the Gaza Strip are on the verge of being disbanded. Hundreds turn themselves in, including terrorists who participated in the massacre in the communities surrounding the Gaza Strip. The terrorists who turn themselves in tell of a lack of weapons and food and of the betrayal of their commanders and senior Hamas officials who took care of themselves and abandoned the military operatives to die in battle. The dismantling of Hamas will also continue in Khan Yunis. Terrorists have two choices: surrender or die.”
• In northern Gaza, the IDF hit more sites where rockets had been launched. In Jabalya, they exposed a site that had been firing rockets toward Sderot. The IDF announced that following a raid they found, “approximately 250 rockets, shells, and RPGs that were ready for use, as well as other weapons and military equipment. IDF troops also struck a weapon production factory where they located hundreds of grenades, rockets, and M72 LAW rockets.”
• In the southern Strip, four IDF reservists were killed when an explosive device was detonated during a raid on a “terror infrastructure sites” close to a school.
• In parallel to the fighting, in an effort to increase humanitarian aid into Gaza Strip the IDF opened the Nitzana and Kerem Shalom crossings to enable security screening of the aid. This includes trucks containing water, food, medical supplies and shelter equipment that will then be forwarded to the international aid organisations. The good will continue to enter via the Rafah crossing from Egypt.

Foreign Affairs and Defence Committee: Prime Minister Netanyahu spoke yesterday at a meeting of the Knesset committee, where he pushed back against demands from his left to pursue a two state solution, and from his right to reoccupy and resettle the Gaza Strip once Hamas has been defeated.

• Labour leader Merav Michaeli asked Netanyahu about post-war planning and the need for a two-state vision, to which he replied, “Oslo was the original sin. After Oslo there was an identical number of people killed. The problem isn’t in the agreement but rather brought the most anti-Zionist and anti-Jewish element to the heart of the country.”
• Far-right MK Limor Sonn Har Melech’s (Jewish Power) demanded that Israel reoccupy Gaza, to which Netanyahu said “we can occupy, we can annex—but at what cost? So we will have settled, let’s say. You’ve got to think of the cost.”
• Netanyahu stated that his goal was for the military operation to defeat Hamas and disarm the Strip, and for the Arab world and Gulf states to take charge of Gazan rehabilitation. “I believe that the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia will support the rehabilitation of the Strip,” he said, despite neither state having given any public indication it will.
• The humanitarian situation in the Strip was discussed, with MKs from the right taking a hard line. Tally Gotliv (Likud) criticised the Israeli acceptance of American demands. “Why isn’t there a siege on Gaza,” she asked. “Why are we such defeatists? Why do we take the United States into account?”
• Likud MK Danny Danon once more raised the prospect of the international community re-homing Gazans who chose to leave.
• The US has made repeatedly clear its insistence that a Palestinian entity assume control in Gaza after Hamas (its preference is for a “reformed” Palestinian Authority) and that reoccupation is unthinkable. There is international consensus that forcing or encouraging Gazans to leave the Strip is also unthinkable, and no Israeli moves have been made in this direction.

Lebanon border: There were further exchanges of fire in the north.

• Shooting was reported towards the town of Ma’a lot, Metula and Shtula. The IDF responded with targeted fire to the source as well as striking Hezbollah infrastructure posts.
• On Monday night Hagari warned, “terrorist organisations will pay a very heavy price in Lebanon for any attack on civilian communities. We will strike with force and determination and will not allow this firing to continue towards civilians. This is how we will continue to operate in the north and will exact a price from terrorist organizations, especially the Hezbollah terrorist organization, which bears responsibility for this.”
• More than 100,000 Israelis have been forced to leave their homes in the north. Defence Minister Gallant recently made clear Israel’s refusal to return to the status quo, and that Hezbollah, and its elite Radwan force in particular, must be returned beyond the Litani river, as called for by UN Resolution 1701.
• The US and France have made efforts to induce the Lebanese government to act to remove Hezbollah fighters from the border area, but Israel has also affirmed that if diplomatic initiatives fail it will be forced to take military action to secure the north.
• Hezbollah is equipped with a rocket and missile arsenal of around 150,000, some ten times Hamas’s stockpile.

Israel-US: US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken and War Cabinet Minister Benny Gantz spoke by phone yesterday, Gantz telling Blinken that “the international community must act against the state of Lebanon to stop the aggression in the border area.”

• Gantz also conveyed to Blinken his “profound appreciation” over the US using its UN Security Council veto last week to defeat a resolution calling for a ceasefire.
• According to the State Department, the two also discussed “ongoing efforts to facilitate the safe return of all remaining hostages, further increase levels of humanitarian assistance and prevent the conflict from expanding.”
• Blinken also stressed “the urgent need for affirmative steps to de-escalate tensions in the West Bank and reiterated that Israel must take all possible measures to avoid civilian harm” and “emphasised that the United States remains committed to advancing tangible steps towards the realisation of a Palestinian state.”
• It is the latest example of Blinken sidestepping his opposite number, Israeli Foreign Minister Eli Cohen, by choosing to deal with other senior government figures instead.
• US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan is expected to be the next senior US official to visit Israel.

Gaza Strip: The IDF continues to operate across the Gaza Strip, engaging in battles in five separates locations; in northern Gaza the IDF is fighting in Jabalya, Shajaiya, Bet Hanoun and Shita; in the south it is now in the heart of Khan Yunis.

• Overall the IDF confirmed they have struck 450 targets in the last day, killing “numerous terrorists”.
• The IDF, “struck from the air, sea, and ground as IDF troops operating in the Gaza Strip continued extensive battles with terrorists. The troops continue to operate to locate and destroy underground tunnel shafts, weapons, and additional terror infrastructure.”
• In addition, “Israeli Navy forces used precise ammunition to strike dozens of terror infrastructure sites used by the Hamas naval forces in the central and southern Gaza Strip…included observation posts, and storage compounds containing weapons.”
• For the first time footage emerged of dozens of men stripped down to their underwear, handcuffed and blindfolded, having surrendered inside Jabaliya.
• There was also more “close-quarter combat” in Shajaiya. Forces continued to expose tunnel shafts, including inside a school, and rocket launchers in the area.
• During the day an additional seven tunnel shafts were found, and troops “eliminated dozens of terrorists and located a large amount of ammunition, explosives and weapons.”
• The IDF released body camera footage they found on a combatant having eliminated the cell armed with RPGs and AK-47s.
• Hamas continues to launch rockets into Israel, some launched from within the declared humanitarian safe zone in the south. According to the IDF 12 rockets were fired from there towards Beer Sheva.
• The IDF also revealed that earlier in the week, the Air Force “eliminated Abdel Aziz Rantisi, a senior terrorist operative from Hamas’ military intelligence unit. Rantisi had been responsible for field intelligence in the Gaza Strip and participated in the planning of the October 7th massacre.”
• Five more IDF soldiers have been killed in action over the last day. This included the son of former IDF Chief of Staff and current minister in the war cabinet Gadi Eisenkot. 91 IDF personnel have fallen since the ground incursion began.

Northern front: Hezbollah continues its same pattern of attacks across the northern border.

• On Thursday Hezbollah claimed responsibility for 12 separate attacks.
• A 60 year old farmer was killed in Matat by an anti-tank missile. Four Israeli civilians have been killed in the north since the war began.
• In another attack two IDF soldiers were wounded near Shtula.
• The IDF continues to respond and strike Hezbollah positions. Overall atleast 93 Hezbollah fighters have been killed so far.  In addition, Islamic Jihad confirmed two of their operatives were also killed yesterday in southern Lebanon.
• There were also three rockets fired from Syria, landing in open areas in the Golan Heights.

Context: Israel has now been at war for two months during which the IDF have hit over 20,000 targets inside the Gaza Strip.

• The IDF has killed an estimated 6,000 combatants, also injuring several thousand. The overall Palestinian death toll is estimated at over 15,000. Whilst the Israeli public is less exposed to the suffering of the Palestinians, there is sympathy for the plight of Gazan civilians, as most see Hamas to blame for having initiated the war.
• Channel 12 News included the assessment that the IDF have killed 2 out of the 5 Hamas division commanders, 20 of the 24 battalion commanders and almost 50 per cent of junior field commanders. Approximately 70 per cent of the buildings in northern Gaza are estimated to be uninhabitable.
• On Arab media there are growing examples of Gazans blaming Hamas for initiating this disaster on their own people, whist their leaders continue to hide underground. Hamas operatives have also been accused of diverting the humanitarian aid, earmarked for the civilian population.
• The surrender of around 150 men in Jabalya is an important development. Most of them are thought to be combatants, but that will be confirmed as they are processed. Although this is  just the first instance, it’s a significant indicator of breaking Hamas’s fighting spirit.
• The fighting in Khan Yunis is now considered a decisive battle, central to the war aim of defeating Hamas. On a tactical level, an IDF victory would leave the rest of the southern Hamas battalions isolated.

Looking ahead: The Israeli leadership has not set any time limit on the operation, with fighting in Khan Yunis expected to continue till the end of the year and possibly beyond.

• While Israel has retained the support of key allies including the US and UK, it is not considered to be indefinite, with speculation that the IDF will have until the end of 2023. The international community is particularly troubled by the conditions of Gaza’s civilian population, which has led to Israel allowing in more fuel, despite concern that some will be taken by Hamas to support their fighting capacity.
• Israel is still waiting for the Red Cross to be allowed access to visit the remaining 138 Israeli hostages, still captive inside Gaza.

Gaza Strip: As it continues its advances all across the Strip, the IDF is now thought to exercise “operational control” over Jabalya and Shajaiya in the north.

• In parallel, intense fighting continues in the south, especially in the key city of Khan Yunis, where Israel believes the Hamas leadership is now located, along with four of Hamas’s 24 battalions.
• By last night, troops had surrounded Khan Yunis and began to operate in its centre. The IDF said it had “launched a combined attack on the area of ​​the city of Khan Yunis, against the ‘centres of gravity’ of the Hamas terror organisation.”
• Troops captured Hamas strongholds, finding weapons and intelligence materials, and located around 30 tunnel shafts which were then destroyed during the ongoing battles, as well as a weapons depot inside a mosque.
• IDF Spokesman Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari said last night: “In the last 48 hours, in Jabalya, Shajaiya, and Khan Yunis, we breached the defence lines. The terrorists are coming out from underground and fighting our forces. And our forces are winning in close-quarters combat. They have the upper hand.”
• The IDF has announced the deaths in action of Staff Sgt. Amit Bonzel, 22, and Staff Sgt. Alemnew Emanuel Feleke, also 22. Their deaths bring the total suffered in the ground operation to 86.
• Amid dire humanitarian conditions in the Strip, thousands of Gazans fled Khan Yunis and headed for the Rafah area, some accusing Hamas of stealing civilian aid.
• Last night, the wider security cabinet endorsed the war cabinet’s recommendation to double the quantity of fuel allowed into the Gaza Strip daily to 120,000 litres. Finance Minister Smotrich and National Security Minister Ben Gvir voted against the motion.
• Also last night, Israel reacted angrily to UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres invoking Article 99 of the UN Charter to convene the UN Security Council in a bid to call for a ceasefire.
• Israeli Ambassador to the UN Gilad Erdan called Guterres’s action a “a new moral low,” while Foreign Minister Cohen wrote on X: “Guterres’ tenure is a danger to world peace. His request… constitutes support of the Hamas terrorist organisation and an endorsement of the murder of the elderly, the abduction of babies and the rape of women. Anyone who supports world peace must support the liberation of Gaza from Hamas.”

The north: Defence Minister Gallant met local leaders of northern border towns yesterday and presented two options for the estimated 80,000 displaced northern Israelis being able to return home.

• “There’s the option that we [Israel and Lebanon] come to a different agreement,” he said, “which might resemble Resolution 1701, through mediation by international actors. Our presence, our existence and our security  will be respected, and we will respect the other side.”
• “The second option is that we’ll be forced to do that by force. We don’t want war, but if we reach a situation in which we need to entrench security here, we won’t hesitate, just like we didn’t hesitate in the south.”
• An air raid siren sounded in Moshav Margaliot on the Lebanese border this morning.

Context: As fighting resumed after Hamas broke the ceasefire, Jabalya and Shajaiya remained the last Hamas strongholds to be suppressed in northern Gaza. They have long been considered some of the strongest Hamas positions, partly due to their close geographic location and dense urban concentration, close to the Israeli border.

• In Khan Yunis, the IDF is fighting close to the home of Hamas chief Yahya Sinwar, though he is thought to be hiding elsewhere – likely along with the rest of Hamas’s Gazan leadership somewhere in the Strip’s vast network of tunnels.
• Many of the 86 IDF casualties killed so far appear to have been attacked at close range, as Hamas fighters emerge from below ground to deploy rocket-propelled grenades and sniper fire before retreating below again.
• As it continues fighting in the south, Israel faces competing dilemmas. Operationally, achieving the war’s aims of the total defeat of Hamas in the whole Strip and rendering Gaza free from terrorist threat will take time.
• Against this, Israel is operating against the international diplomatic clock. As Israel Hayom’s Yoav Limor reports this morning: “Israeli officials realise that for a host of reasons—international pressure, the humanitarian crisis in Gaza, the state of Israel’s economy—Israel has about two or three weeks to complete the current intensive operation in Gaza before being forced to move on to another modus operandi.”
• The decision to allow more fuel into Gaza should be seen in this context, with the US thought to be linking support for continued Israeli action to the greater flow of humanitarian aid.
• US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan told reporters yesterday that “we have talked to Israel “about timetables. I don’t want to share that because Israel has already kind of telegraphed precisely the location of its ground operation and I don’t want to be the one telegraphing timetables.”
• UN Resolution 1701 was passed in 2006 following the Second Lebanon War. It called for “the deployment of Lebanese forces to Southern Lebanon, parallel withdrawal of Israeli forces behind the Blue Line, strengthening the UN force (UNIFIL) to facilitate the entry of Lebanese Forces in the region and the establishment of a demilitarised zone between the Blue Line and the Litani River.”
• It has been widely breached by Hezbollah, which continues to deploy beyond the Litani and its elite Radwan forces have established bases along the border.
• Reports have suggested that the US and the French have offered financial incentives to the Lebanese government to act to remove Hezbollah terrorists from the border area, while Amos Hochstein, the US official who brokered the 2022 Israel-Lebanon maritime agreement, is thought to be looking to pursue a similar deal on the land border.
• As soon as Hamas broke the ceasefire last Friday, Hezbollah resumed its attacks on northern Israel. Amid multiple attacks, 12 people were wounded when an anti-tank missile hit the border town of Beit Hillel on Sunday. Tuesday saw Hezbollah claim responsibility for at least nine attacks on northern Israel, including in Tel Hai, Shtula, and Kiryat Shmona.
• Despite its constant targeting of Israel since October 7^th, Hezbollah has not expanded the conflict in the manner Hamas wished. The assessment remains that the group, and its Iranian paymaster, do not see it as in their interests to engage in all-out war with Israel at this time, and have therefore restricted their attacks so far to close proximity to the border.
• On Tuesday, Israel took the unusual step of publicly saying it “regretted an incident” in which the Lebanese army suffered casualties. The IDF explained they had “acted in self-defence against a threat that was detected in a well-known launching ground and Hezbollah observation post.”

Looking ahead: UK Defence Secretary Grant Shapps has announced he is set to visit the region this week.

• His office said he would meet with Gallant to “address the current security situation and Israel’s next steps” and with Palestinian Authority Minister General Ziad Hab Al-Reeh, “to address the urgent need for measures to improve security for Palestinians in the West Bank.”
• “The UK has made clear,” a statement said, “that Israel has the right to defend itself against terror, restore its security and bring the hostages home, but it must abide by international humanitarian law and take all possible measures to protect civilians.”
• Sullivan is also set to arrive in the region this week, while it is also thought that a delegation of French political and security officials is expected to visit Israel in the coming days to discuss the Lebanese border issue.

Jerusalem terror attack: Three people were killed, including a 24-year-old woman, a 60-year-old woman, and a 73-year-old man in a deadly shooting attack this morning at a bus stop at the entrance to Jerusalem. Six further people were injured, two of whom are in serious condition.

• One of the victims was named by both Israeli chief rabbis as Ashdod rabbinical judge Elimelech Wasserman.
• Two terrorists, one with an M-16, the second a handgun, opened fire towards civilians at the bus station. Both were swiftly killed by security forces and an armed civilian who were close by, preventing further victims.
• The attackers were named as brothers Murad Namr, 38, and Ibrahim Namr, 30, from East Jerusalem. According to the Shin Bet, both were Hamas members and previously jailed for terror activity. Murad was in prison from 2010 to 2020 for planning terror attacks and Ibrahim was jailed in 2014 for undisclosed terror activity.
• CCTV footage (here) captured the terrorists arrived by car from East Jerusalem and police are checking the area to see if anyone else was involved. Searches of the terrorists’ vehicle revealed large amounts of ammunition.
• Minister Gantz said: “this terror attack is further proof of our obligation to continue to fight with strength and determination against murderous terrorism, which threatens our citizens. In Jerusalem, Gaza, in Judea and Samaria, and everywhere.”

Pause in fighting extended again: The truce between Israel and Hamas in Gaza was set to expire at 7am this morning, but was extended by a day when an updated list of hostages set to be freed today was accepted by Israel.

• It reportedly comprised only eight hostages — six women and two children. Other reports suggest that three bodies of Israeli abductees will also be returned.
• An initial list given by Hamas including seven women and children, as well as three bodies, was rejected by Israel rejected as insufficient.
• An IDF statement said that “in light of the mediators’ efforts to continue the process of releasing the hostages and subject to the terms of the agreement, the ceasefire will continue.”
• Sixteen people were released by Hamas on Wednesday night. These included 12 Israelis — five of them teens — and four Thais. Two Israeli-Russian women were released as a “gesture” to Russian President Putin.
• US Secretary of State Antony Blinken arrived in Israel last night for his third visit since Hamas’s October 7 attack.
• Blinken is also expected to visit the West Bank and the United Arab Emirates, according to a State Department statement on Monday. Washington is pushing to allow further humanitarian aid into the Gaza Strip and to secure the release of all the hostages being held captive by Hamas.
• Israeli troops killed two senior terror operatives in the Jenin refugee camp yesterday. Muhammad Zubeidi was a senior Palestinian Islamic Jihad operative in the Jenin camp while Hussam Hanoun was a local operative. The Shin Bet said that Zubeida had been involved in a terror attack near the West Bank settlement of Hermesh in which an Israeli, Meir Tamari, was killed.

Context: The police will be concerned that with the release of over 200 Palestinian prisoners, including unrepentant terrorists, there could come an increase of terror attacks.

• The same bus stop was the scene of a devastating terror attack almost exactly a year ago.
• CIA chief Bill Burns and head of the Mossad David Barnea have held meetings with senior officials in Qatar to expand the pool of hostages eligible for release in conjunction with further extending the pause.
• The number of hostages freed over the last week is 97 — 73 Israelis and 24 foreign nationals, mostly Thai agricultural workers. The IDF estimates 159 hostages remain in Gaza, including baby Kfir and toddler Ariel Bibas, 10-months and  4-years-old, as well as siblings Aisha and Bilal Ziyadne.
• On Wednesday Hamas said that Kfir, Ariel and their mother Shiri, had been killed, a claim that the IDF is currently investigating.
• Further details have emerged of the violent treatment to which some of the hostages have been subjected by their captors. “I was with Israelis, and there were guards all the time. The Jews who were with me were treated more harshly. Sometimes they were beaten with electrical cables,” said a recently released Thai worker.
• The Israeli Defence Ministry this morning announced that the total number of military and security personnel injured since the beginning of the war stands at 2,005. 287 are currently hospitalsied, 28 in serious condition.
• Since October 7, Israeli troops have arrested approximately 2,000 wanted Palestinians across the West Bank, including more than 1,100 affiliated with Hamas. The Palestinian Authority health ministry has said that around 200 West Bank Palestinians have been killed by Israeli forces, most of them armed men involved in clashes with the IDF.

Looking ahead: The extension to the pause in fighting will last through the day.

• Israel continues to emphasise that the war will continue. At a meeting with communities from the Gaza envelope yesterday, Prime Minister Netanyahu said: “We saw that the ground maneuver and the diplomatic pressure were yielding us the outcome [we wanted], but we won’t concede the objective of destroying them…We’ve got a major struggle here. We won’t let it (the PA) return. We have a sacred duty to restore security. Everything is meaningless unless we restore security. We’ll destroy Hamas, and there won’t be any option for any other actor of that kind to rule Gaza. We’ll have security control in the Gaza Strip.”
• During a meeting with President Herzog, Blinken said he “looked forward to detailed conversations with the government of Israel about the way ahead in Gaza.” American pressure on Israel has been mounting with a senior American official telling Israeli officials: “You’ve displaced a million Gazans. How are you making sure you don’t kill them?”

What happened: A third group of hostages, comprising 14 Israelis and three Thai nationals were freed from Hamas captivity in the Gaza Strip yesterday evening.

• The Israelis included nine children, two mothers, two more women, and one man, Roni Krivoi, with Russian-Israeli citizenship. Ten of those freed were from Kfar Aza.
• One of the Israelis, 84-year-old Elma Avraham, is unconscious and on a respirator with her condition termed “unstable”. Avraham was evacuated directly from Gaza to Soroka by helicopter.
• Another Israeli released is Avigail Idan, the 4-year-old American-Israeli citizen from Kibbutz Kfar Aza whose parents were murdered on October 7^th.
• Israel released 39 convicted Palestinian women and minors from prison and allowed 200 trucks to transport humanitarian aid into the Gaza Strip.
• Discussions continue over the possibility of extending the agreement to free more Israeli hostages. After speaking with US President Biden, PM Netanyahu said “there is a plan that says it is possible to free, every extra day, another ten hostages. That is welcome. In the same breath, I also told the president, we will return, with our full might, to achieve our objectives: Hamas’s annihilation, and ensure that Gaza not revert to being what it was, and of course, to free all of our hostages.”
• US President Biden expressed his support for extending the pause.  “That’s my goal, that’s our goal,” he said, “to keep this pause going beyond tomorrow so that we can continue to see more hostages come out and surge more humanitarian relief to those in need in Gaza.”
• Hamas confirmed the deaths of five senior commanders who were targeted by Israel during the fighting in Gaza. These include: Ahmed Ghandour, the commander of its northern Gaza brigade; Ayman Siam, the head of Hamas’s rocket firing array; and Wael Rajab and Raafat Salman. Ghandour had previously survived several assassination attempts and was designated as an international terrorist by the US State Department in 2017 and also involved in the abduction of Gilad Shalit in 2006.
• An American warship freed the tanker owned by Eyal Ofer that was boarded by five Houthi terrorists off the coast of Yemen. Fox News reported that the tanker crew locked themselves in a safe room and the terrorists were unable to break into it. American troops seized control of the tanker and arrested the terrorists.
• The US Central Command (CENTCOM) announced early on Monday that two ballistic missiles had been launched from areas in Yemen controlled by Houthi rebels towards an American destroyer in the Gulf of Aden.
• Syrian media report Israeli airstrikes against Damascus International Airport and other targets near the capital. The pro-government Sham FM radio says the runway at the airport was hit, among other targets.

Context: As part of the agreement with Hamas, Israel agreed to release 150 Palestinian women and minors who were sentenced to prison terms, and allow hundreds of trucks to transport humanitarian aid and fuel into the Gaza Strip. In exchange Hamas undertook to release 30 children and 20 women.

• Following the release of this third group of hostages, there are believed to be approximately 180 hostages held by Hamas, including 18 children (eight girls and 10 boys) and 43 women.
• Intensive talks have taken place in an effort to extend the deal by another few days, facilitated by the US, Egypt, and Qatar, attended by Mossad Director David Barnea, Shin Bet Director Ronen Bar and Maj. Gen. (res.) Nitzan Alon, who is tasked with overseeing Israel’s hostage release efforts.
• The original agreement stipulated that it could be extended under the following terms: for every ten Israeli hostages released by Hamas, Israel would pause its fighting for an additional 24 hours; an additional three Palestinian prisoners would be released for every one freed Israeli hostage, and humanitarian aid will continue to be allowed to flow into Gaza.
• The Israeli cabinet approved in advance potentially releasing 300 Palestinian security prisoners so as to facilitate the smooth extension of the current arrangement, effectively allowing for a five-day extension of the pause in fighting without having to convene the cabinet to approve an additional prisoner release.
• While Israel is discussing extending the agreement, officials have emphasised that the war against Hamas will continue once the pause is over.
• On Saturday, Defence Minister Gallant, visiting troops in Gaza, vowed that Israel would not leave Gaza until all the captives are returned and confirmed additional attack plans in the days following the ceasefire.
• IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi said the current pause was being used to study adding that the IDF would “revert immediately upon the end of the ceasefire to attacking Gaza, to manoeuvring in Gaza. We’ll do that both in order to dismantle Hamas and to create very great pressure to bring home as quickly as possible as many hostages as possible.”
• With the IDF having made substantial gains in northern Gaza, before the truce began on Friday, it had surrounded Jabalya, a remaining northern Hamas stronghold, but hadn’t yet entered it. They are widely expected to do so as soon as the truce ends. The army is determined to eventually begin operations in southern Gaza as well.
• Israel’s assessment is that senior Hamas officials still control the group’s military operations and haven’t lost contact with their troops in the field.

Looking ahead: A fourth and final (unless the agreement is extended) group of hostages are set to be released today.

• The Prime Minister’s Office says “discussions” are ongoing regarding a list of Gaza hostages to be released today that was received overnight and is being “evaluated.”
• Israeli security officials are optimistic about the possibility that the pause in fighting might be extended by a number of days so as to facilitate the release of additional hostages being held by Hamas, potentially including older Israeli men.
• Israel is prioritising freeing as many hostages as possible in the current round, on the working assumption that it will be hard to stop the war again within a short amount of time.