1. There are unconfirmed reports that the third most senior Hamas leader, Marwan Issa, was killed in an Israeli air strike, early Sunday morning. Speaking on Sunday night, IDF Spokesperson Rear Admiral Hagari said that Issa was part of the terrorist triumvirate leadership, along with Deif and Sinwar. Hagari said: “On Saturday night, in a joint IDF-GSS operation, combat planes attacked an underground compound of the Hamas leadership in the central Gaza Strip in the Nuseirat area. The compound was used by two of the leaders. We are still studying the results of the attack and there is still no final confirmation.” In his statement, Hagari identified a second senior figure in the tunnel as Razi Abu Tama’a, Hamas’s arms chief and a former commander of its armed forces in central Gaza. Marwan Issa served as Mohammad Dief’s deputy, second in command of the Hamas military wing. Israeli analysts described him as a “brilliant strategic mind” and considered central to the planning of October 7th alongside Deif and Sinwar.  Hamas has yet to issue an official statement announcing his death. This could be due to the general destruction in the Strip and the difficulty in locating his body, or a deliberate Hamas ploy to not announce his loss. If his death is confirmed, it would make him the highest ranking target in the war so far, even more senior than Arouri, who was killed in Lebanon. It also sends a signal to Sinwar and Deif that Israeli intelligence is looking for them too.

2. This morning, sirens have been heard in the north, both in the Golan and the Galilee near the Lebanon border. Israel is reporting that Hezbollah has launched over 100 rockets so far. Some of the rockets have been intercepted, whilst most fell in open areas. No injuries have been reported so far. In response, the IDF confirms that three rocket launchers that fired dozens of rockets towards northern Israel this morning were targeted with air strikes and destroyed. Overall, Hezbollah has fired over 2,500 rockets into Israel since October 7th, resulting in 17 Israelis killed. In response 239 Hezbollah fighters have been killed so far.

3. On Sunday night the Israeli Air Force attacked Hezbollah targets in the Baalbek region, around 100 km north of the border. This is the second time the Israeli Air Force has targeted the area since the war begun. The first time was two weeks ago after an Israeli UAV was shot down over Lebanon. Lebanese sources reported strikes on two compounds belonging Hezbollah’s aerial force, which had planned and executed attacks against Israel.  The IDF spokesperson said that the strike was in retaliation for the UAVs that were launched onto the Golan Heights in the last few days.

4. The first ship in a pilot programme carrying humanitarian aid by sea has today set sail from the port of Larnaca in Cyprus. The Open Arms is carrying almost 200 tonnes of food, supplied by Cyprus, the UAE, and the NGO World Central Kitchen (WCK) and will dock on a WCK-built pier on the Gaza coast, south of Gaza City. Israeli officials say that WCK will then be responsible for distributing the food to Gazan civilians. WCK says it has another 500 tonnes of food ready in Cyprus for future deliveries. In announcing the maiden voyage, it said that deliveries by sea would enable aid to reach many more Gazans, but pushed for further land crossings to be opened, too. Elsewhere, US State Department spokesman Matthew Miller said yesterday that the process of the US delivering a huge shipment of flour to Gaza has started. The shipment, enough to feed 1.5 million Gazans for five months, was first mooted nearly two months ago, before being blocked by Israeli Finance Minister Smotrich, who cited UNRWA’s unsuitability to distribute it. The shipment is now set to be distributed in Gaza by the World Food Programme instead.

5. A senior Israeli official said yesterday that a hostage deal “might be possible… under certain conditions”. Speaking to Ynet, the same official said that despite US warnings that it would constitute a “red line”, an Israeli operation in Rafah was likely. “An operation in Rafah will happen… the question is when – because there are many complexities here,” they said. With Hamas opting to stall and increase its demands for a deal, the Israeli Security Cabinet discussed empowering its negotiators with broader terms – an idea unanimously rejected by all cabinet members. Qatari media is reporting that CIA Director Burns, who met with Mossad head Barnea over the weekend, has explored the possibility of a brief cease-fire to facilitate further negotiations. Meanwhile, Israel is said to be weighing the idea of securing the Palestinian Authority’s (PA) assistance in administering Gaza if Hamas is removed from power. Israel media reports that Defence Minister Gallant has mentioned Commander of the General Intelligence Service Maj. Gen. Majed Faraj, a close associate of PA President Abbas as someone who might be heavily involved.

6. Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs Katz addressed the UN Security Council’s emergency session to discuss the report on Hamas’ sexual crimes during the October 7th massacre yesterday. “I am here on behalf of the women and girls who were raped, murdered and mutilated by Hamas murderers,” said Katz. Katz also demanded that the UN recognise Hamas as a terrorist organisation and exert all possible pressure to return the remaining hostages. “The United Nations has been silent regarding on the actions of Hamas for too long,” Katz said. “Over the past five months, since October 7, the United Nations has convened 41 times and has neither condemned nor denounced the brutal crimes of Hamas.” The UN report, authored by Pramila Patten, found “reasonable grounds” to conclude that Hamas committed rape and gang rape at multiple sites during the massacre, as well as “clear and convincing information” that hostages in Gaza were subject to “sexual violence including rape, sexualised torture, cruel, inhuman and degrading treatment.”

7. Former French Foreign Minister Catherine Colonna, head of the UN’s independent Review Group examining the actions UNRWA on October 7th, began her visit to Israel yesterday. Visiting Tel Aviv and Jerusalem, before proceeding to Ramallah and Amman, Colonna will be shown evidence of illustrating the extent of Hamas penetration of the aid agency, Hamas’s use of UNRWA facilities, including schools and clinics, to store weapons and launch attacks, and its locating of terror tunnels in or near UNRWA facilities. Katz welcomed Colonna’s arrival and stressed that Israel is cooperating fully with the committee, established by UN Secretary General Guterres in the wake of Israeli revelations of UNRWA staff’s complicity in the Hamas massacre.

What’s happened: As Ramadan begins, there is still no breakthrough in US-Qatari-brokered negotiations regarding a hostage release/cease fire in Gaza.

• It was revealed on Sunday that Mossad Director Barnea met on Friday in Jordan with CIA Director Burns, who is holding a series of meetings in the region to try to prevent the negotiations over a hostage deal from collapsing.
• The Prime Minister’s Office released a statement, saying of their meeting that “At this stage, Hamas is holding to its position as if it was uninterested in a deal and is striving to ignite the region during Ramadan at the expense of the Palestinian residents of the Gaza Strip. It should be emphasised that the contacts and cooperation with the mediators are ongoing in an effort to narrow the gaps and advance agreements.”
• There are growing suggestions that Qatar could place more leverage on Hamas’s leadership. Among the threats could be threatening to expel top Hamas political bureau officials from Doha should they fail to persuade the movement’s leadership in Gaza to come to an agreement, or cutting off access to finances.
• In a bid to help ensure calm in Israel and the West Bank over Ramadan, Shin Bet Director Bar visited Bahrain and Jordan last week, for talks with officials there.
• On Saturday night, President Biden offered his harshest criticism of Prime Minister Netanyahu since the beginning of the war. Netanyahu was “hurting Israel more than helping Israel. He has a right to defend Israel, but he must, he must, he must pay more attention to the innocent lives being lost as a consequence of the actions taken.”
• In response, Netanyahu said he didn’t “know exactly what the president meant… if he meant by that that I was pursuing private policy against the wish of the majority of Israelis and that this was hurting the interests of Israel, then he is wrong on both counts.”
• Lord Cameron, the British Foreign Secretary, welcomed the US plan to improve the distribution of humanitarian aid in Gaza by building a pier off the Gazan coast to allow for maritime delivery of aid, rather than relying on overland truck convoys and airdrops. Cameron confirmed that the British government had been involved in with it “from the start”, and would be “helping with the pre-screening of aid”.
• He also called on Israel to allow the port of Ashdod to be used to transfer more aid to the Gaza Strip while the US was completing this pier.

Context:  Israeli officials believe that Hamas delayed and stalled on negotiations in a deliberate bid to have Ramadan begin with no agreement reached.

• It hopes that it can succeed in inciting violence to such an extent that Israeli attention and resources are diverted from Gaza. Friday’s terror attack in the West Bank, in which seven Israeli soldiers were wounded, indicates the scale of the task facing security services in preventing an escalation during the holy month.
• With the Biden Administration agreeing that the lack of a deal is due to Hamas intransigence and not Israeli inflexibility, the Israeli War Cabinet is not minded to empower Israel’s negotiators to negotiate with broader terms.
• Gaza’s already precarious humanitarian situation has significantly worsened since 7^th October, with approximately 80 percent of its population estimated to be internally displaced. Overland convoys of trucks are insufficient, and both the US and Arab partners have recently resorted to airdropping food and medical aid into the coastal enclave.
• By opening a maritime corridor between Larnaca in Cyprus and an artificial pier off the coast of Gaza, it is hoped that this humanitarian situation can be partially alleviated.
• Israel’s Defence Minister Gallant has said that Israel supports the pier plan and that it could help topple Hamas from power in Gaza: “The process is designed to bring aid directly to the residents and thus continue the collapse of Hamas’s rule in Gaza.”
• He also said that the establishment of this corridor would “ensure that supplies reach here for those who need them and not for those who don’t”.
• Hamas has repeated appropriated aid intended for the Gaza Strip’s civilian population. Israel has long pursued a policy of caution when allowing its entry to the coastal enclave. This requirement to balance security with an obligation to facilitate aid distribution has compounded the coastal enclave’s precarious humanitarian situation since the outbreak of war in October:
• An average of 95 trucks carry aid entered the Gaza Strip daily between October 2023 and February 2024, down from approximately 500 before the 7^th October attacks. Approximately two million Gazans are estimated to be reliant on the UN for aid provision.
• The Israeli government has responded to criticisms that it is not allowing enough aid into the coastal enclave by saying that “there is no limit to the amount of aid that can enter Gaza”, and stressing that it can facilitate the entry of more trucks.
• Israel maintains that aid organisations and Hamas are to blame for the Gaza Strip’s humanitarian situation, and the real issues lie with how aid is being distributed once it arrives in the coastal enclave.
• Since at least November 2023, reports have emerged of gunmen looting aid convoys. Israel says these gunmen are Hamas members, and points to their actions as one of the reasons why Gazan civilians have been unable to access aid.

Looking ahead: There remains hope that a hostage deal can still be reached during Ramadan.

• This pier will be built by the US Army and is expected to take six to eight weeks to complete. The US has also said that Israel would secure this pier.
• If a deal fails to be reached, Israeli officials continue to insist that an operation in Rafah remains essential in order to destroy Hamas’s military capabilities and its capacity to re-arm

What’s happened: In his State of the Union address, President Biden said the US military would establish a temporary pier in the Mediterranean on the Gaza coast to help deliver humanitarian aid.

• The emergency mission is to build a pier that would be able to receive large ships carrying food, water, medicine and temporary shelters and, according to Biden, “would enable a massive increase in the amount of humanitarian assistance getting into Gaza every day.” The pier will take a number of weeks to be built.
• In his speech, Biden stressed that there would be no US boots on the ground. While urging that the humanitarian situation be addressed, Biden also reaffirmed Israel’s right to defend itself, and emphasised that the crisis began with “Hamas’ massacre”. “The 1,200 innocent people – women and girls, men and boys – slaughtered, many enduring sexual violence. The deadliest day for the Jewish people since the Holocaust; 250 hostages taken.”
• “Israel has a right to go after Hamas. Hamas could end this conflict today by releasing the hostages, laying down arms, and surrendering those responsible for October 7th. Israel has an added burden because Hamas hides and operates among the civilian population. But Israel also has a fundamental responsibility to protect innocent civilians in Gaza.”
• Biden also discussed the destruction in Gaza, calling it heartbreaking. “This war has taken a greater toll on innocent civilians than all previous wars in Gaza combined. More than 30,000 Palestinians have been killed.  Most of whom are not Hamas. Nearly 2 million more Palestinians under bombardment or displaced. Homes destroyed, neighbourhoods in rubble, cities in ruin. Families without food, water, medicine.”
• Biden also stated the importance of humanitarian assistance to the citizens of Gaza. “To the leadership of Israel, I say this: humanitarian assistance cannot be a secondary consideration or a bargaining chip. Protecting and saving innocent lives has to be a priority.”
• He added “as we look to the future, the only real solution is a two-state solution.”
• Reports suggest that as Ramadan approaches, the chances for a hostage deal remain slim.
• While Israel has responded positively to the blueprint put forward by the US, Egypt and Qatar, Hamas has reportedly increased its demands to include a complete IDF withdrawal from Gaza and a higher number of prisoners released.  Official US sources said the deal is stalled because Hamas is refusing to release sick and elderly hostages.
• This week, in an attempt to calm tensions in the Arab world and ensure humanitarian aid reaches Gaza via alternative routes, Prime Minister Netanyahu’s military secretary Major General Gil secretly visited the UAE.
• Asked to by Israel, the US, UK and France submitted an official request for an emergency UN Security Council session on special representative Pramila Patten’s report accusing Hamas of sexual crimes on October 7 and beyond.

Context: Biden’s speech comes in the context of increased tension between Israel and the US regarding the delivery of humanitarian aid to the Strip. Cabinet minister Gantz, who this week visited Washington and London, came under criticism for Israel’s response to this issue as well as the IDF’s plan to operate in Rafah.

• The increase of humanitarian aid reaching the Gazan population has been a repeated concern on the administration.
• In joint operations with Jordan, Egypt, and France, the US has intensified its air-drops of aid into the Gaza Strip, yesterday dropping 28,000 meals, bringing the total dropped this week to 112,896 meals.
• The US hopes that by increasing the total tonnage of aid through the new sea route and with air drops, more aid can reach the population, overcoming widespread looting and Hamas obstruction. The US will continue to act in conjunction with Israel to ensure the latter’s security needs are met in the aid delivery process.
• Yesterday, the UN began to assess using an Israeli military road bordering the Gaza Strip to deliver aid into the territory. Israel has consistently maintained that it is not responsible for aid bottlenecks, and that the UN has failed to keep pace with Israel’s checking and clearing of aid trucks.
• Senior defence officials have said in closed-door meetings that looting aid in the Gaza Strip won’t stop until trucks carrying humanitarian aid entering Gaza are protected by armed officials. (For more, see Israeli Media Summary below.)
• The basic formula for a deal presented during meetings in Paris and Cairo includes different stages:
  • The first stage would include Hamas freeing about 35 Israelis – women, the elderly, and ill or wounded in exchange for several hundred Palestinian prisoners in Israel. This would be alongside a six-week ceasefire, during which talks would be held about freeing the remaining hostages.
  • Stage two would include the return of the rest of the hostages in exchange for a full IDF withdrawal from Gaza Strip although Israel has not committed to this.
• Gaps remain regarding the number of “heavyweight” prisoners Israel will release. Hamas is demanding the first stage include the release of about 100 prisoners who have murdered Israelis, as well as the nature of the transition to a permanent cease-fire and the end of the war, and the number of Palestinians who will return to northern Gaza. Israel is willing to allow women and children while Hamas want all residents.
• Without a deal and a pause in the war, there is a fear of escalation surrounding the Temple Mount during Ramdan. The site has traditionally been a scene of tension which could lead to protests in the West Bank and wider Arab world.

Looking ahead: The Turkish Red Crescent will today send its largest aid package yet to Gaza. 3,000 tonnes of food, medicine and equipment left for the Egyptian port of Al-Arish yesterday and will be transported to Rafah in 200 trucks.

• CIA Director William Burns is in the Middle East to try to create a breakthrough on a hostage-release deal. Burns arrived in Qatar yesterday after a secret visit to Cairo.
• If a deal for a hostage release and a ceasefire is not reached before Ramadan, the policy challenge over a ground operation in Nuseirat and Deir al-Balah in central Gaza and / or Rafah will increase.

1. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak joined a London meeting yesterday between Israeli war cabinet Minister Gantz and UK National Security Adviser Sir Tim Barrow. Gantz’s office said he thanked the UK “for its efforts on behalf of Israel’s security and stressed the importance of continued international pressure on Hamas to secure the release of the hostages.” Gantz also thanked the UK “for its efforts to curb the threat posed by the Iranian axis of terror in the Red Sea and in the region more broadly.” Earlier in the day, Gantz met with UK Foreign Secretary Cameron. “We discussed efforts to secure a humanitarian pause to get the hostages safely home and lifesaving supplies into Gaza,” Cameron said. “I once again pressed Israel to increase the flow of aid. We are still not seeing improvements on the ground. This must change.” Like his visit to Washington this week, Gantz’s London trip was not sanctioned by Prime Minister Netanyahu.

2. The New York Times reports increasing pessimism regarding the prospects for securing a hostage release/ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas before Ramadan. Discussions look to have stalled over Hamas insistence on a permanent ceasefire, a full Israeli withdrawal from the Gaza Strip, and the return to northern Gaza of residents displaced by fighting. Israel has already agreed to a “redeployment” of forces within Gaza, and the return of women and children to the north. According to US reports, Washington is considering pressing Qatar to threaten to expel Hamas officials from Doha if they fail to agree to a hostage release. President Biden said this week that a deal was in Hamas’s hands, while at the UN, the US revised language in a draft Security Council resolution to back “an immediate ceasefire of roughly six-weeks in Gaza together with the release of all hostages.”

3. In coordination with Israel, the UN will today assess using an Israeli military road bordering the Gaza Strip to deliver aid into the territory. The US also made its second airdrop of aid into Gaza yesterday in a joint operation with Jordan, Egypt, and France. Also yesterday, Israel’s Channel 13 reported that Israel will the for the first time allow humanitarian aid to enter Gaza via sea. The UAE will finance the aid shipments, which will be sent from there to Cyprus, for inspection by Israeli officials. Sources suggest the first aid ship will sail from Cyprus in the coming days.

4. The IDF has named a soldier killed in fighting in Gaza yesterday as Staff Sgt. David Sasson, 21. 12 other soldiers were wounded, five seriously, when Hamas gunmen in the Hamad neighbourhood of Khan Yunis opened fire. Another soldier was critically wounded yesterday in a battle in another part of the Strip. Elsewhere in Gaza, IDF operations continue in the Hamad Town neighbourhood of Khan Yunis. Soldiers raided several sites in the neighbourhood, locating a weapons manufacturing plant, explosive devices and military equipment, the IDF says. Troops also located several tunnel shafts, and destroyed a number of Hamas offices in the area.

5. The state commission of inquiry tasked with investigating the circumstances that led to the death of 45 men and boys attending the 2021 Lag B’Omer festival on Mt. Meron published its report yesterday. It found that Prime Minister Netanyahu, former Public Security Minister Ohana, Police Commissioner Shabtai and former Religious Services Minister Avitan all bore personal responsibility for the disaster. In response, the Likud accused the inquiry of being a politically motivated attack by the previous Bennett-Lapid government. As well as being criticised by Lapid, who called for Netanyahu to resign, this response was attacked from within the Likud itself. Economy Minister Barkat said: “It is a grave mistake to turn the commission of inquiry into the Mt. Meron disaster into a political event.” Likud MK Eli Dellal wrote on X: “If you have nothing smart/good/leader-like to say, it’s best not to say anything.” Likud MK Tally Gotliv said: “I am a Likud member and I do not agree with the Likud’s infuriating response to the Meron commission’s conclusions.” Ohana, also from the Likud and now the Speaker of the Knesset, accepted the findings of the report and said the catastrophe resulted from “a long-standing failure in organising the event and the infrastructure of the place.”

6. The Shin Bet intelligence service has followed the IDF in beginning its own operational review into the October 7^th massacres and the events leading up to them. The review will take several weeks – a possibly months – and will consider the handling of intelligence received on the evening of October 6^th indicating a possible attack. Shin Bet head Ronen Bar took responsibility for intelligence failures shortly after the event, saying “the responsibility resides with me for our failure to produce a satisfactory warning.”

7. For the first time, Houthi attacks on Red Sea vessels have resulted in fatalities to crew. Three crew members of the Barbados-flagged True Confidence died after a Houthi missile strike hit the vessel yesterday. The government of the Philippines has confirmed that two of its citizens were among those killed. The news comes days after the Belize-flagged cargo ship, Rubymar, became the first vessel to sink after being hit by Houthi missiles. Also yesterday, according to US CENTCOM, the US conducted “self-defence strikes against two unmanned aerial vehicles in a Houthi controlled area of Yemen that presented an imminent threat to merchant vessels and US Navy ships in the region.” On Tuesday, the US shot down a ballistic missile and three drones launched from Yemen at the destroyer USS Carney. Three anti-ship missiles and three sea drones were also fired at the ship. Communications cables under the Red Sea were also cut this week, affecting 25 percent of data traffic flowing between Asia and Europe. The cause of the damage is as yet unknown. The Houthis have carried out more than 60 Red Sea attacks in recent months, with analysts assessing that the US coalition’s strikes at missile-launching sites are not having a deterrent effect.

What’s happened: After what had initially appeared to be a promising week of negotiations, talks between Israel and Hamas have now stalled.

• While Israel is understood to have agreed in principle to a six-week ceasefire in exchange for the release of elderly, unwell, and female hostages, Hamas refused to provide a list of those who are still alive.
• While talks including a Hamas delegation continue in Cairo, Israel has not sent a delegation of negotiators given Hamas’s unsatisfactory response.
• Israeli officials said that Sinwar’s refusal to provide the required information stems from his “desire to set fire to the ground and to cause bloodshed during Ramadan.”
• It is still hoped that a ceasefire agreement can be reached by the end of the first weekend of Ramadan, but pathways to a deal appear increasingly limited, with the prospects of a breakthrough diminishing.
• On Sunday, a senior Hamas official claimed, “If Israel agrees to Hamas demands, which include the return of displaced Palestinians to northern Gaza and increasing humanitarian aid, that would pave the way for a (truce) agreement within the next 24 to 48 hours”. Israel has not commented on this suggestion.
• An unnamed Hamas official has also told the Wall Street Journal that, “while there is slow progress on an agreement for a temporary ceasefire and hostage deal, it seems unlikely that it will be reached before Ramadan’s expected start on March 10, and instead may come to fruition by the first weekend of the Muslim holy month”.
• It has also been suggested by Egyptian and Qatari sources that there has been no contact from Hamas leader, Yahya Sinwar, for at least a week, which may be further hampering and slowing hostage release efforts.
• US Vice President, Kamala Harris, called yesterday for an “immediate ceasefire” given “the immense scale of suffering in Gaza”. While reiterating her desire to see hostages released and reunited with their families, she also condemned Israel for not doing enough to ease a “humanitarian catastrophe” in the current administration’s strongest comments since 7^th October.

Context:  While a ceasefire and hostage release deal remains possible, its likelihood is diminishing given Hamas’s intransigence and refusal to provide Israel with a list of living hostages.

• 130 hostages remain unaccounted for, with Israel saying that at least 29 were dead on 13^th February. Three hostages have been rescued by Israel’s security forces, 105 were released during a ceasefire in November, and four prior to that. Securing all hostages is Israel’s joint primary stated war aim along with destroying Hamas in the Gaza Strip.
• Fellow members of Israel’s war cabinet are said to have criticised Prime Minister Netanyahu for insisting on the names of surviving hostages as a precondition of negotiations. They argue that the list of hostages could have been discussed toward the end of the negotiations, as was the case in the previous deal.
• Senior Egyptian sources claim that both Egypt and Qatar are putting strong pressure on Hamas to provide the names of hostages to be released in a first round of releases.
• Egypt is also said to have made clear to Khalil al-Hayya, who is heading Hamas’s delegation, that it is difficult to hold talks and make progress when Hamas is split between its political leadership overseas and its leadership in Gaza.
• Egyptian, Qatari, and Israeli officials have suggested that Hamas’s Gazan leader Yahya Sinwar is wilfully delaying a deal in the hope that an Israeli action in Rafah, Hamas’s last Gazan stronghold, would lead to a flare-up in the West Bank and among Israeli Arabs.  A senior Israeli official said that, “Sinwar prefers to escalate tensions in the Middle East, causing chaos and bloodshed on Ramadan, over the alternative of a six-week cease-fire and humanitarian aid that would significantly alleviate the suffering of Gaza’s local population”.
• Qatar is a longstanding supporter of Hamas, yet has also maintained an unofficial but productive relationship with Israel since at least 1996. Doha has frequently acted as an intermediary between Israel and Hamas, and played a critical role in mediating and brokering more recent negotiations along with Egypt.
• In these negotiations, Qatar and Egypt, have acted as a mutually acceptable touchpoint with strong oversight by the CIA’s Bill Burns. Both Israel and Hamas can advise of their negotiating position, as well as relaying messages between the two parties.
• The US remains deeply concerned by both Hamas’s holding of hostages, as well as the worsening humanitarian situation in the Gaza Strip. By facilitating a ceasefire, it hopes to secure both the release of as many hostages as possible, as well as an increased flow of aid into the Gaza Strip.

Looking ahead: If fighting continues into Ramadan, it is likely that Hamas will attempt to escalate hostilities into the West Bank, as well as encourage Hezbollah to intensify its own attacks on Israel.

• Given their keenness to prevent further regional conflict, the US will almost certainly continue all sides to agree to a ceasefire. War Cabinet member Minister Gantz arrives in the US for talks with senior officials today. (For more detail, including Netanyahu’s opposition to this visit, see Israeli Media Summary below.)
• Defence Minister Gallant had previously set a deadline of March 10^th for hostages to be released. Failing that, he pledged that Israel would intensify operations in Rafah.

Screenshot: IDF Spokesperson’s Office

What’s happened: Following the death of dozens of Palestinians after a stampede broke out around an aid convoy west of Gaza City, the US has blocked an Algerian-sponsored statement at the United Nations Security Council which sought to blame Israel.

• While reports conflict, it appears that:
  • Before dawn yesterday morning, approximately 30 trucks containing aid entered the Gaza Strip to deliver food to the Rimal neighbourhood of Gaza City.
  • At approximately 4.40 AM, thousands of Gazans swarmed the trucks. Drone footage of the event shows some of the trucks attempting to drive through the crowds, presumably in an effort to extract themselves and deliver the aid they were carrying.
  • After a number of trucks were able to continue north, armed men opened fire on what remained of the convoy.
  • While the IDF has admitted that its troops did open fire, it says that this was only “when they encountered danger, when the mob moved toward it in a manner that endangered the force”.
  • The IDF also says that it “did not fire toward individuals seeking aid and we did not fire toward the humanitarian convoy from the ground nor from the air.”
  • It is being reported that at least 112 Gazans were killed in this incident, with approximately 760 being injured. However, as these figures originate from within the Hamas-run Palestinian Ministry of Health, their veracity is questionable.
  • The IDF’s initial inquiry into the incident has concluded its troops’ fire killed only 7 or 8 people and that the majority were killed in the chaos, not by shooting.
  • “The tanks were there to provide security for the trucks. Our aircraft gave the troops on the ground a full picture from above,” the IDF said.
  • “When the hundreds turned into thousands, the IDF complied with international law… Israel did not limit the quantity of humanitarian aid entering Gaza. We recognize the suffering of the Gaza residents.”
• In the aftermath of this event, much of the international community has reiterated calls for an immediate ceasefire and increased aid being allowed into the Gaza Strip.
• At the United Nations Security Council, Algeria sought to issue a statement which explicitly blamed Israel for this deadly incident. While supported by 14 out of 15 council members, it was blocked by the US.
• When asked why the US had not supported this statement, Deputy Ambassador to the United Nations Robert Wood said: “We don’t have all the facts on the ground – that’s the problem.”
• He also said that in the face of contradictory reports, the US was trying to  establish facts, including regarding the “circumstances around how people died”.
• President Biden has also discussed this incident with Qatari Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al-Thani and Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi. According to a White House statement, they agreed that it “underscored the urgency of bringing negotiations to a close as soon as possible”.
• The White House has also called for this event to be “thoroughly investigated”.

Context: Israel will conduct a thorough investigation into an incident which further highlights the complexity of distributing aid to the Gazan people and the urgent necessity of forming a civilian infrastructure to prevent further incidents of this kind.

• There are also suggestions that plans are being considered to parachute aid in, or to bring it from the sea in the northern Gaza Strip, avoiding the need for road convoys. Even prior to yesterday’s incident, the US and Canadian governments were reported to be considering their own air-drops.
• The Jordanians, in cooperation with Israel, have been air-dropping aid since the beginning of the war. For example, on February 27^th, 160 packages were successfully delivered to the residents of southern Gaza.
• The UK FCDO yesterday confirmed it was providing Jordan and Bahrain with parachutes to enable further aid to be dropped. “Together with our international partners we will continue to get humanitarian aid to those most in need,” it said.
• Coordinator of Government Activities in the Territories (COGAT) statistics show that 268,000 tonnes of humanitarian aid –  food, medical equipment, water, as well as shelter equipment – have been delivered on 14,545 aid trucks since the beginning of the war. 1246 water trucks have entered, ensuring 28.5 million litres of water a day.
• The aid enables 20 bakeries to currently operate across Gaza, providing 2.5 million bread rolls and pita breads a day.
• US and Qatari-brokered negotiations between Israel and Hamas aimed at securing a ceasefire and the release of hostages captured on 7^th October had been slowly progressing. However,  President Biden has indicated a concern that this incident will “complicate” negotiations.
• In a press conference, Prime Minister Netanyahu has said that Hamas has put up a “brick wall of delusional, unrealistic…demands”, seemingly pouring cold water on the possibility that an agreement leading to a ceasefire and hostage exchange is imminently reached.
• Hamas branded yesterday’s incident an “unprecedented war crime”, while the PA President, Mahmoud Abbas, referred to it as “an ugly massacre conducted by the Israeli occupation army on people who waited for aid trucks”

Looking ahead: While ceasefire negotiations are likely to continue, Thursday’s events risk prejudicing them against Israel and in Hamas’s favour.

• Combat operations will continue in the Gaza Strip. Israel is particularly vigilant in areas where despite previous IDF control, pockets of Hamas fighting cells remain able to carry out attacks.

What’s happened: On Thursday night, Prime Minister Netanyahu presented the security cabinet with his proposal for ‘the day after Hamas’.

• The plan was presented as a draft platform for further discussion, and is based on different timelines:
  • In the first stage, the IDF will continue fighting with the aim of destroying Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad’s (PIJ) military capabilities and government infrastructure and prevent them from posing a threat in the future. In addition, Israel will continue to strive to bring the hostages home.
  • In the second, medium-term phase, Israel will maintain freedom of operation in the Gaza Strip. Israel will work alongside Egypt and the US to ensure an end to weapons smuggling from Egypt into southern Gaza. Ensuring the Strip will be demilitarised. Israel will seek to empower a Gazan “civilian administration”, based “on local figures with administrative experience who have no affiliation with countries or organisations that support terrorism.”
  • Relating to the long term, Netanyahu “utterly rejects international dictates in the matter of a permanent status arrangement with the Palestinians.” Any arrangement will only be reached in direct negotiations between the sides without preconditions. Accordingly, Israel will continue to oppose unilateral recognition of a Palestinian state.

Context: Although these are only general guidelines, it is the first time that the prime minister has presented a position of any kind on ‘the day after’.

• Notably, this document did not explicitly rule out the Palestinian Authority (PA) playing a part in future governance in Gaza.
• Although politically sensitive within the coalition, there is understanding that in order to get buy-in from potential regional partners (UAE and Saudi Arabia) to contribute to the rehabilitation of Gaza, some form of Palestinian leadership, perhaps a reconstituted PA and a long-term vision towards a negotiated political resolution will be necessary.
• The IDF is expected to launch a pilot programme in Gaza City’s Zeitoun neighbourhood, in which local civilians take over the administration of the area from Hamas. The trial civilian authority will look to take charge of distributing humanitarian aid, much of which currently ends up in the hands of Hamas, which uses it for its own ends to the cost of the civilian population.
• Another component of Netanyahu’s plan talks about the necessity to “de-radicalise all the religious, educational and welfare institutions in the Gaza Strip.”  This would also include closing down UNRWA and replacing it with other international welfare agencies.
• In the meantime, fighting continues across Gaza. The IDF announced, over the last day:
  • A terrorist cell that were carrying an explosive device and which fired an RPG at IDF troops, was eliminated by IDF and Israeli Air Forces (IAF).
  • IDF soldiers located dozens of rockets and explosive devices.
  • IDF troops continue operations in western Khan Yunis. In the past day, more than ten terrorists were killed by precise sniper fire and UAV strikes.
  • The IAF destroyed a weapons storage facility, a command centre, and a compound where several terrorists were located, adjacent to IDF troops.
  • Additionally, IDF troops continue to conduct targeted raids in Zeitoun in the northern Gaza Strip, where over the past day the soldiers killed over ten terrorists using precise sniper fire, UAVs, and helicopters, and located weapons and military equipment. Troops also located weapons and uncovered tunnel shafts in the Zeitoun area.
  • IDF troops eliminated several terrorists in the central Gaza Strip. During one incident, the soldiers identified a terrorist cell at an observation post in a strategic location, intending to attack IDF troops. A helicopter was then dispatched to strike the post and neutralise the terrorist cell.
• Meanwhile, Israel continues to fight on multiple fronts:
  • There has been sustained rocket fire from Lebanon into northern Israel throughout Thursday, into the evening and again this morning. As usual the IDF returned fire to the sources.
  • In addition, the IAF struck a Hezbollah military compound in the area of Maroun El Ras and a Hezbollah military compound in the area of Blida. Arab media reports suggest that a senior Hezbollah commander was killed in the attack, along with another combatant. Overall, Hezbollah has announced 208 fighters killed so far.
  • The IDF confirmed that the interception of a long range ballistic missile from Yemen towards Eilat on Thursday morning was the seventh time the Arrow Aerial Defence System had successfully been deployed since the beginning of the war.
  • In the West Bank, the IDF announced, “a terrorist who was on his way to commit a terror attack, and who carried out several shooting attacks over the past weeks was eliminated in an aerial strike in Jenin.” Yasser Hanoun, affiliated with PIJ was killed by a remotely operated UAV.

Looking ahead: A delegation led by the directors of the Mossad and Shin Bet will leave today for a summit in Paris for a renewal of the hostage negotiations. Among the key issues yet to be resolved is the ratio between the Palestinian prisoners to be released per hostage.

1. An Israeli man in his 20s has been killed and at least 11 others wounded in a terror attack near Ma’ale Adumim.  A pregnant woman, 23, is in serious condition, and four others are in moderate condition – a woman in her 30s, a man aged 23, a man aged 51, and a woman aged 52. The three attackers opened fire on vehicles in traffic on Highway 1, which leads to Jerusalem. Two were shot dead by security forces at the scene, and the third during sweeps of the area. They were evidently well coordinated and well-armed, with weapons recovered including assault rifles, makeshift submachine guns, and a grenade. The Shin Bet has identified the terrorists as Muhammad Zawahra, 26, his brother Kathem Zawahra, 31, and Ahmed Al-Wahsh, 31, all from the Bethlehem area.

2. There is cautious optimism over the prospects for a new hostage negotiation. Minister Gantz said yesterday that “efforts are being made presently to advance a new arrangement, and [there are] initial signs about the possibility for progress.” Saudi reports suggest an Israeli delegation is expected to travel to Cairo to resume talks, following an apparent softening of Hamas’s position. Hamas confirmed that its Political Bureau Director Ismail Haniya and a Hamas delegation had arrived in Cairo on Tuesday. They were followed yesterday by US Middle East envoy Brett McGurk, for a summit that had not been scheduled in advance. The Qatari Emir and prime minister are also expected to travel to Paris for talks next week. Israeli media reports suggest that Hamas has been persuaded to show more flexibility by threats from Arab states that they will cease providing funding and safe refuge for Hamas officials if they failed to do so.

3. IDF troops have begun fighting at close range inside the Gaza Strip’s vast tunnel network. Soldiers from the Yahalom Unit and the 98^th Division yesterday destroyed a tunnel in the Khan Yunis area, after successfully navigating blast doors and other obstacles placed by the terrorists. Terrorists were encountered and defeated in a combination of hand-to-hand combat and what Israel Hayom calls “special means”. The IDF has continued a large-scale operation in Gaza City’s Zeitoun neighbourhood in the last day, in a bid to ensure that Hamas does not return there, while last night, Israel Navy troops destroyed Hamas and Islamic Jihad naval vessels and a rocket launcher that was ready for use to fire on Israel.

4. Once Zeitoun is secured, the IDF is to launch a pilot programme there, in which local Gazan civilians take over the administration of the area from Hamas. The trial civilian authority will look to take charge of distributing humanitarian aid, much of which currently ends up in the hands of Hamas, which uses it for its own ends to the cost of the civilian population. Another focus of activity will be changing school textbooks which currently incite hatred of Israel.

5. Hezbollah launched attacks on several northern Israeli communities this morning. An anti-tank missile struck a house in Yuval, a village in the Upper Galilee. Another anti-tank missile was launched toward the city of Kiryat Shmona and landed in an open area. There have been no reports of injuries, and the IDF responded with fire to the source of the attacks. Israel also attacked a military structure in the area of the Lebanese village Yaroun, along with three other Hezbollah operation command posts in southern Lebanon.

6. Israel’s Arrow long-range defence system intercepted a Houthi missile headed for Eilat this morning. The missile did not enter Israeli airspace and was shot down over the Red Sea. This was the sixth time the Arrow system has intercepted a Houthi ballistic missile headed for Israel since October 7^th, while the Israeli Air Force has also thwarted several drone and cruise missile attacks. Shortly before the launch on Eilat, US forces destroyed seven Houthi anti-ship missiles, one missile launcher and a drone which “presented an imminent threat to merchant vessels and to the US Navy ships in the region.”

7. Israel’s Association of Rape Crisis Centres yesterday provided to the UN a detailed report documenting Hamas’s extensive use of sexual violence on October 7^th. Its authors note that “the report clearly demonstrates that” sexual violence was “not a ‘malfunction’ or isolated incident, but a clear operational strategy involving systematic, targeted sexual abuse.” The report also provided evidence of continued sexual violence being inflicted on hostages being held by Hamas in Gaza. The report’s content is gleaned from survivors’ testimonies, interviews with first-responders, and people who provided counselling to the victims, though due to the high number of victims of this violence who were subsequently murdered, the full extent of the massacre’s sexual and gender-based violence is difficult to quantify.

8. The UK Parliament witnessed chaotic scenes yesterday during a vote on the war in Gaza. The Scottish National Party (SNP) had introduced a motion strongly critical of Israel and calling for an immediate ceasefire. The opposition Labour Party, arguing that the motion was too broad, introduced an amendment calling for an “immediate humanitarian ceasefire”, but “noting that Israel cannot be expected to cease fighting if Hamas continues with violence and that Israelis have the right to the assurance that the horror of 7^th October cannot happen again”. The Conservative government also tabled its own amendment. The House of Commons Speaker, Sir Lindsay Hoyle, unexpectedly chose to allow both amendments to be put to a vote, causing the Conservatives and the SNP to leave the chamber in protest. The partially vacated chamber then voted unanimously for the Labour amendment. Hoyle said he had been minded to allow the Labour motion to allow the House a full airing of views, and in part due to personal threats received by MPs.

Photo credit: IDF Spokesperson’s Office

What happened: Overnight, Israeli security forces carried out a successful rescue of the 61-year-old Fernando Simon Marman and 70-year-old Louis Har, both taken from their homes on Kibbutz Nir Yitzhak on October 7^th.

• Both men are in good condition and were taken by helicopter to hospital, where they were reunited with their families
• According to the IDF and Shin Bet, the operation was planned for some time, based on precise intelligence that was cleared operationally “once conditions permitted.”
• The operation was led by special forces who used a bomb to enter a second floor apartment in the southern Gaza city of Rafah. They killed armed guards inside and outside the building, extracting the hostages safely under heavy fire.

Context: The successful operation to rescue two hostages is being celebrated in Israel. However, 134 hostages remain in Hamas captivity, now for 128 days.

• The rescue operation was based on such detailed intelligence that they knew by which door to enter in order to kill the armed guards and not harm the hostages.
• Forces entered Rafah undercover, in an area not yet under Israeli control.
• Israeli forces are prepared for wider manoeuvre into Rafah. On Friday, Prime Minister Netanyahu announced a plan to evacuate civilians in the city.
• The Israeli government sees a ground operation in Rafah as a vital step to achieve four of the war’s objectives:
  • Engage destroy and dismantle the remaining four (out of 24) of the Hamas brigades, thereby remove the last bastions of Hamas military structure.
  • To block the smuggling routes from Egypt, which is crucial to preventing the re-armament of the Strip.
  • To continue to hunt down the Hamas leadership which, having evaded Israeli forces elsewhere, are now seemingly underneath Rafah.
  • According to the Israeli doctrine, this final operation will pressure Hamas to soften their demands over the hostages negotiations. There is also a chance that the operation could allow for further rescue missions.
• Prior to the war, Rafah had a population of around 250,000 people. It has now swelled to an estimated 1.4 million Gazans, who have fled the fighting elsewhere.
• Before Israel can start a ground offensive, they will need to establish another humanitarian corridor, probably back into Khan Yunis, once the ground operation there is completed.
• Operations along the Egyptian border, referred to as the Philadelphi Corridor, is particularly sensitive for Egypt, who are concerned that pressure will increase to open their border to allow Palestinians to enter into the Egyptian half of Rafah.
• The Egyptians are anxious and have also placed tanks and infantry troops on the border, as well as covering the border wall with heavy layers of barbed wire.
• An Egyptian delegation met with Israeli security officials in Tel Aviv on Friday to reach understandings around Rafah.
• Over the weekend, a senior Israeli official described Israel’s relations with Egypt as, “strategic, long-term and important for the continued prosecution of the war and a hostage deal. Relations between us are excellent and the operation will be coordinated.”
• The US is also concerned for Gazan civilians and continues to insist that Israel:
  • Operates in coordination with the international community, and according to international law.
  • Avoids noncombatant casualties as much as possible.
  • Allows more humanitarian aid into the Gaza Strip.
• Some of the aid into Gaza is being held up on the Israel side, due to pressure by some families of the hostages and their supporters, who believe aid into Gaza should be contingent on their release.
• Currently, Egypt allows all the aid entering to undergo Israeli security inspection, to ensure against weapon smuggling. However, these protests could  lead Egypt  to deliver aid to Gaza directly via Rafah without Israeli inspection.
• Over the weekend, Foreign Secretary Lord Cameron wrote on X, that he is “deeply concerned about the prospect of a military offensive in Rafah… the priority must be an immediate pause in the fighting to get aid in and hostages out, then progress towards a sustainable, permanent ceasefire.”

Looking ahead: The IDF needs to complete operations in Khan Yunis, before the security cabinet can approve the plan to evacuate the civilian population from Rafah.

• The IDF is hoping to have the operation in Rafah finished by the start of Ramadan, in a month’s time.
• More shuttle diplomacy is likely before an operation is launched, to ensure at least a degree of coordination with the US and Egypt.
• CIA chief William Burns is expected to visit Cairo in the days ahead as he looks to press forward with a deal to release the hostages and agree a ceasefire.
• Israeli officials are also being encouraged to join the talks too.