What’s happened: Over the weekend, the IDF announced the death of 12 soldiers in four separate incidents.

• Eight of the soldiers were killed when an anti-tank missile was fired into their armoured personnel carrier (APC) in western Rafah. All eight were from the Engineering Corps, young conscripts in their early 20s.
• The commander was Capt. Wassim Mahmoud a 23-year-old from the Druze village of Beit Jann. He fell alongside:
  • Sgt. Eliyahu Moshe Zimbalist, 21, from Beit Shemesh
  • Sgt. Itay Amar, 19, from Kochav Yair
  • Staff Sgt. Stanislav Kostarev, 21, from Ashdod
  • Staff Sgt. Orr Blumovitz, 20, from Pardes Hanna-Karkur
  • Staff Sgt. Oz Yeshaya Gruber, 20, from Tal Menashe
  • Sgt. Yakir Ya’akov Levi, from Hafetz Haim
  • Sgt. Shalom Menachem, 21, from Beit El
• Two IDF reservists were killed in action in the northern Gaza Strip: Cpt. (res.) Eitan Koplowitz, a 28-year-old resident of Jerusalem and Warrant Officer (res.) Eilon Weiss, a 49-year-old resident of Psagot. Both were killed by a bomb that exploded near their tank. Two other soldiers sustained serious injuries in the same incident.
• Another soldier, Sgt. Yair Rothman, a 19-year-old resident of Karnei Shomron, succumbed to injuries he sustained early last week in a booby-trapped building in the southern Gaza Strip.
• On Sunday afternoon, the IDF announced a twelfth fatality, St.-Sgt Tzur Abraham, 22, from Modi’in, a combat soldier in the Nahal Brigade, killed in combat in the southern Gaza Strip.
• IDF Spokesperson Hagari commented on “an additional painful reminder of the price of war and that behind the achievements of the war stand brave soldiers, heroes, who were willing to sacrifice their lives for the State of Israel, that is the common home for all of us – Jews, Druze, Bedouins, Muslims and Christians – all citizens of Israel.”
• In parallel, the IDF also announced on Sunday, that it in an effort to “increase the volumes of humanitarian aid entering the Gaza Strip and following additional related discussions with the UN and international organisations, starting yesterday (Saturday), a local, tactical pause of military activity for humanitarian purposes will take place from 08:00 until 19:00 every day until further notice along the road that leads from the Kerem Shalom Crossing to the Salah al-Din Road and then northwards. This is an additional step in the humanitarian aid efforts that have been conducted by the IDF and COGAT since the beginning of the war.”
• Despite IDF progress, on Friday five rockets were fired from a humanitarian zone inside Gaza toward Kibbutz Kissufim. Two fell in open areas inside Israel, while three fell inside the Gaza Strip.

Context: Whilst Israel mourns the losses, steady progress is being made in the military campaign to gain full operational control of the Gaza Strip.

• However, the soldiers killed in the APC is a painful reminder that even though the Hamas command structure has been significantly weakened, a lone operator or small terror cell can inflict significant damage.
• This weekend’s fatalities take the total number of IDF soldiers killed since October 7^th to 662, 311 since the beginning of the ground operation in Gaza.
• There is ongoing concern that despite almost nine months of fighting, Hamas remains in power. Writing in Yediot Ahronot, Michael Milshtein explains the success of Hamas remaining in power has been based on their representatives, “such as municipalities and plainclothes police officers who maintain public order by, among other means, taking people suspected of looting and shooting them in the leg. Close ties with the public have been maintained by means of religious and social organisations, which are used to enlist public support for Hamas, alongside domestic intelligence services that locate domestic dissenters and use force to suppress them. Hamas’s military wing has begun to use guerilla warfare tactics instead of fighting as full-fledged battalions, it has also reorganised, appointed new commanders and recruited new fighters to take the place of those who were killed.”
• The tactical humanitarian pause will allow for the contents of 1,000 trucks that have been waiting on the Gazan side of the Kerem Shalom crossing to be collected and delivered across the Strip.
• Prime Minister Netanyahu announced this morning that the Israeli war cabinet is to be disbanded. Since October 11^th, the smaller decision-making forum has operated above the security cabinet in making decisions on the wars in both the south and the north.
• Former ministers Gantz and Eisenkot left the war cabinet upon announcing their withdrawal from the government last week. Far-right National Security Minister Ben Gvir had been publicly pressing to be admitted to the war cabinet, with Netanyahu’s decision to disband it a signal of his desire to continue to bypass Ben Gvir in decision-making.
• Over the weekend, anti-government protests have continued. Thousands of people demonstrated at locations across Israel against the government and in support of a deal that would free the hostages.
• In addition, hundreds of displaced persons from northern Israel blocked traffic at the entrance to Jerusalem to highlight their predicament, with currently no prospect of return to their homes as the escalation in the northern continued through the weekend.
• Northern Israel faced continued attacks from Hezbollah over the weekend, including dozens of Katyusha rockets that were fired at northern communities.
  • Several buildings in Kiryat Shmona were hit.
  • More nature area were set on fire in the Baram area as a result of rocket fire.
  • Two homes were hit by anti-tank missiles in Metulla and a large fire broke out as a result in the village.
  • Hezbollah also announced it had targeted a military base with drones.  They claimed the attacks were part of its response to the assassination last week of Abu Taleb, a senior commander.

• There was also internal criticism heard against Hezbollah. Maronite Christian member of Lebanese parliament Elias Hankach said the war was being fought to serve Iran’s interests.

Looking ahead: Further diplomatic efforts are anticipated to try to reach a ceasefire in the north and south.

• US Special Envoy Amos Hochstein, whose focus is Lebanon arrives in Israel today and meet with the prime minister and defence minister.
• The Pentagon has invited Defence Minister Gallant to meet US Secretary of Defence Austin in Washington. This could happen even before Prime Minister Netanyahu is expected to address both Houses of Congress next month.
• With the IDF making progress, once the operation in Rafah is completed, Israel is expected to renew negotiations for both a ceasefire and a hostage deal.

What’s happened: More details have emerged of the joint IDF, Shin Bet, and Police operation which successfully rescued four Israeli hostages on Saturday.

• Almog Meir Jan, Shlomi Ziv, Andrey Kozlov and Noa Argamani were all rescued from captivity in the central Gazan town of Nuseirat. While Argamani was being held alone, the three men were held together in the home of a Gazan doctor, Ahmed Al Jamal, and his son Abdallah Al Jamal, a Hamas spokesman and journalist. All four hostages are thought to be in good health.
• According to Palestinian sources, more than 200 Gazans are thought to have died in the course of the rescue, both combatants and civilians, with Hamas having sequestered the hostages in densely populated civilian areas.
• Chief Insp. Arnon Zmora, an officer in the Border Police’s elite Yamam counter-terror unit, was killed during the rescue. After his death, the name of the operation was changed from ‘Seeds of Summer’ to ‘Operation Arnon’.
• The operation was conducted with intelligence assistance from the UK and the US, in the form of drone surveillance. Palestinian sources suggest undercover officers posed as local Gazan refugees and Hamas fighters in the leadup to the mission.
• Argamani, images of whose terrifying kidnap on a motorbike went viral on October 7^th, was able to be reunited with her mother who is dying of terminal cancer.
• In a tragic turn of events, Meir Jan’s father Yossi Jan died only hours before his son was recovered. “My brother died of grief and didn’t get to see his son return,” said Jan’s sister Dina. “The night before Almog’s return, my brother’s heart stopped. We are very happy about Almog’s return, but the brain is unable to absorb that this is the end. We are broken.”
• Meir Jan’s mother Urit said, “When I see him here with us, I recognize how important it is to get all of them out, all of them. Make every effort. I’m happy. I received my gift. I have a birthday tomorrow, and I received my gift. I want this for all the families.”
• Abdallah Al Jamal, a sometime Hamas Labour Ministry spokesman had written several articles published by the Palestine Chronicle during the course of the war, several while the hostages were being kept in his home.
• “This is further proof that the Hamas terrorist organisation uses the civilian population as a human shield,” the IDF said.

Gantz resigns: In the wake of the successful rescue, Minister Gantz cancelled a Saturday evening press conference at which he was expected to announce his resignation from the government.

• Gantz then resigned yesterday, along with fellow National Unity Party MKs and ministers Eisenkot and Tropper, accusing Prime Minister Netanyahu of preventing “true victory” in the war against Hamas.
• In a speech, Gantz said he had taken his party into government and into the war cabinet “because we knew it was a bad government. The people of Israel, the fighters, the commanders, the families of the murdered, the casualties and the hostages needed unity and support like they needed air to breathe.”
• However, Gantz accused Netanyahu of sacrificing national interests to those of far-right cabinet ministers Ben Gvir and Smotrich. “Fateful strategic decisions,” he said, “are met with hesitation and procrastination due to [narrow] political considerations.”
• During Gantz’s speech, Netanyahu took to X (formerly Twitter) to say “Israel is in an existential war on multiple fronts. Benny, this is not the time to abandon the campaign — this is the time to join forces.”
• Ben Gvir, who had recently removed his Jewish Power party from coalition cooperation, reversed that decision in the wake of Gantz’s resignation and demanded to join the war cabinet himself.

Context: The success in freeing four hostages is a huge tactical victory, but does not change the overall strategic picture.

• The daring raid deep into a densely populated civilian Palestinian area, underscores the ability of Israeli special forces to pull off the unexpected, backed by rigorous intelligence and preparation.
• The operation collectively lifted Israeli spirits and brought a rare moment of national pride and unity, amid so much ongoing pain and heartache.
• In eight months, so far only seven hostages have been successfully rescued in the three separate operations.
• 120 hostages remain in Hamas captivity. According to Israeli estimate, 41 are presumed dead and another 20 with unclear status.
• Despite the successful operation, substantial challenges remain:
  • Fighting continues in southern and central Gaza.
  • Northern Israel remains under constant attack.
  • Over 80,000 people remain displaced from their homes.
  • In the south, some have returned home. However, concerns remain that with ongoing sporadic rocket fire out of Gaza, and Hamas remaining in power, their security cannot be guaranteed
  • There are ongoing concerns over Iranian nuclear enrichment, expressed most recently in last week’s IAEA resolution, sponsored by the UK, France, and Germany, which condemned Iran for continuing to hamper the agency’s monitoring of its nuclear sites.
  • Israel continues to suffer the loss of international legitimacy.
• Gantz and Eisenkot’s resignation is not enough to bring down the government, that now returns to the narrow right wing and ultra-Orthodox make-up with 64 seats in the Knesset.
• Their resignation will give further support to the various protest movements calling to release all hostages, end the war, and announce new elections.
• When he first threatened to leave the government in May, Gantz presented the Security Cabinet with a demand to formulate a plan which should include six objectives:
  • The hostages’ return;
  • Toppling Hamas and demilitarising the Gaza Strip;
  • Deciding on an alternative regime for Gaza;
  • A return home by the residents of northern Israel by September 1^st;
  • Promoting normalisation between Israel and Saudi Arabia;
  • Endorsing the plan to broaden military service to all Israelis.
• Israel continues to facilitate the flow of humanitarian aid into Gaza. On Sunday 60 aid trucks were unloaded on the Gazan side of Erez West, as well as 30 aid trucks that were unloaded from the US built temporary port. According to the COGAT, as of Sunday, “the content of 900 aid trucks is still waiting to be picked up by UN aid agencies.”
• In addition, the IDF announced the establishment of the 11th field hospital in Gaza, as part of the effort to provide humanitarian aid to the residents of the Gaza Strip. “The field hospital compound has recently begun operating in the Al-Mawasi area within the Humanitarian Area in Khan Yunis. This hospital, the seventh to be established in Al-Mawasi, will be operated by the Red Crescent Organisation and is expected to include 40 beds, 3 operating rooms, and an intensive care unit.”

 Looking ahead: Without the National Unity Party in the government Netanyahu faces a dilemma, to cancel the inner war cabinet, to augment the inner cabinet with his hard right wing partners, or seek to include other more centrist figures voices from the opposition, possibly Gideon Saar or Avigdor Lieberman.

• US Secretary of State Blinken arrives in the region today, his eighth visit since October 7^th. He will visit Egypt, Israel, Jordan, and Qatar where, according to the State Department, he will “discuss with partners the need to reach a ceasefire agreement that secures the release of all hostages.  He will emphasise the importance of Hamas accepting the proposal on the table, which is nearly identical to one Hamas endorsed last month.” Despite their resignations, Blinken is set to meet with Gantz and Eisenkot

What’s happened: Israel’s independent General Staff Fact-Finding and Assessment Mechanism is to investigate Sunday’s IAF strike in Rafah.

• The airstrike in the Tel Sultan area targeted and killed two senior Hamas officials in the city, including the commander of Hamas’s West Bank headquarters, but tragically resulted in the deaths of dozens of displaced Gazan civilians sheltering in tents when fires spread to the temporary shelters.
• The Hamas health ministry, in unverified figures, reports 45 Palestinians dying as a result of the strike.
• The IDF said “the attack was carried out against terrorists who are a target for attack, in accordance with international law, using precision munitions, and based on intelligence indicating the use of the area by Hamas terrorists.”
• “Before the strike,” it said, “a number of steps were taken to reduce the risk of harming uninvolved civilians during the strike, including conducting aerial surveillance, the deployment of precise munitions by the IAF, and additional intelligence information. Based on these measures, it was assessed that there would be no expected harm to uninvolved civilians.”
• “In addition, the strike did not occur in the Humanitarian Area in Al-Mawasi, to which the IDF has encouraged civilians to evacuate.”
• Speaking in the Knesset yesterday, Prime Minister Netanyahu said, “in Rafah, we have evacuated about one million civilians. Tragically, despite our immense efforts to avoid harming non-combatants, an incident occurred yesterday. We are investigating it thoroughly and will learn from it, as is our policy and longstanding conduct. For us, any non-combatant hurt is a tragedy; for Hamas, it is a strategy. That is the core difference.”
• A US National Security Council spokesperson said, “Israel has a right to go after Hamas, and we understand this strike killed two senior Hamas terrorists who are responsible for attacks against Israeli civilians, but, as we’ve been clear, Israel must take every precaution possible to protect civilians.”
• Separately, an Egyptian soldier died yesterday following a clash with Israeli soldiers near the Rafah border crossing.
• The precise circumstances remain unclear, with Israel suggesting that fire began on the Egyptian side, while Egyptian sources suggest that the Israelis opened fire, possibly in a confrontation with Palestinians.
• Elsewhere in Gaza, troops located large amounts of military equipment and weaponry and dismantled an explosives manufacturing facility in Jabaliya.
• The IAF, meanwhile, struck over 75 targets in the Strip on Sunday, including a “launch site in Jabaliya from which launches toward the city of Ashkelon in Israel were carried out throughout the war.”
• Troops also dismantled an 800-metre-long tunnel in the central Strip.

Context: Israel remains under attack from multiple sources. On Sunday, eight rockets were launched from the Rafah area towards central Tel Aviv, the first time sirens have been heard in Tel Aviv since January.

• The rockets were fired around 800 metres from where IDF troops where operating in Rafah. This demonstrates that Hamas retains the ability to launch long-range rockets. The timing of the launches is likely due to the advances the IDF is making in Rafah and a desire to use the weapons before troops disable the launch sites.
• Over 90 Hezbollah rockets were fired from Lebanon on northern Israel yesterday. A barrage of around 30 rockets was fired at Kiryat Shmona yesterday evening and a similar sized barrage fired at Mount Meron.
• The IDF struck back at the rocket launchers used to launch the Mount Meron barrage.
• Pro-Iranian Iraqi militias yesterday launched two drones at Eilat, following similar attacks last week. IAF fighter jets and the IDF Aerial Defence Array downed both drones off the coast of the city, with no injuries or damage reported.
• Sirens sounded in the western Galilee after two UAVs crossed into Israeli territory from Lebanon. One was intercepted while the other fell. No injuries or damage were reported.
• The targets of the Rafah attack were Yassin Rabia, commander of Hamas’s West Bank headquarters, and Khaled Najjar, another senior member of the same unit.
• Israel said Rabia “managed all of the military arrays of the West Bank headquarters… was involved in the transfer of funds for terror purposes and directed attacks by Hamas operatives.”
• The IDF’s General Staff handles investigations into both mistakes and potentially criminal actions during wartime.
• Israel’s Military Advocate General, Major-General Yifat Tomer-Yerushalmi said yesterday that since the beginning of the war, “approximately seventy investigations have been launched regarding incidents that raised suspicion of criminal offences.”
• The General Staff Fact-Finding and Assessment Mechanism is independent from the IDF.
• COGAT reports that humanitarian aid continues to flow into the Gaza Strip. 378 trucks were inspected and transferred yesterday through the Kerem Shalom and Erez West crossings.
• “78 trucks of flour from the World Food Program were transferred to supply the organisation’s bakery operations across the Gaza Strip, and 154 aid trucks from Egypt made their way from the Rafah crossing to the Kerem Shalom crossing.”
• Israel has presented Egypt with evidence supporting its version of events around the cross-border fire. Both sides seem keen to put the incident behind them.
• Tensions between Israel and Egypt were already high due to Egypt’s opposition to an Israeli operation in Rafah. Cairo has feared that fighting in Rafah would lead to pressure on its border from civilians fleeing the area.
• It has also sought to maintain control over both the Philadelphi corridor and the Rafah-Egypt crossing. There are both financial motivations for this, and a sense of wanting to protect its pride, which would be damaged by revelations that this border has been porous to smuggling from Egypt into Gaza.
• Since the operation in Rafah began, the IDF has discovered ten smuggling routes along the Philadelphi corridor, an embarrassing example of Egypt being either unable or unwilling to stem the tide of smuggling. Six of the routes have already been decommissioned by the IDF.
• In over 45 years of a so-called ‘cold peace’ between the two countries, while civilian ties have never transpired as might have been hoped, security cooperation has remained solid. It is in both countries’ interest for this to continue.

Looking ahead: The head of Mossad met with Qatari and US officials over the weekend. They now wait to see if Hamas will return to talks.

• The basic positions of both Israel and Hamas appear irreconcilable. Israel insists that an agreement not explicitly provide for an end to fighting; Hamas that it does. It remains to be seen if wording can be formulated to satisfy both.
• A previous Egyptian proposal calls for three stages, the last of which would see a one-year ceasefire committed to by both sides

What’s happened: Israel is continuing its operations in Hamas’s last stronghold in the southern Gaza city of Rafah, and at a scale with which the Biden Administration, previously opposed to any operation there, is satisfied.

• Israeli media reports US officials saying that Israel has listened to US concerns and refined its plans accordingly.
• The IDF is reporting that almost a million of the estimated 1.4 million Gazans previously residing in the city have left for other parts of the Strip.
• According to Palestinian sources, the IDF this morning dropped flyers over Rafah announcing the expansion of safe zones to which displaced persons can move. Many residents have moved north to tent cities which have been erected in Khan Yunis and Al Mawasi.
• According to the IDF, in Rafah troops continue to “carry out targeted raids on the terrorist infrastructure and buildings from which Hamas terrorists fired at our forces. During this activity, the soldiers eliminated dozens of terrorists in eastern Rafah who tried to approach our forces.”
• IDF troops “carried out an operation to destroy terrorist infrastructure. During the operation, the soldiers searched a building and located many weapons including protective equipment, explosives, weapons, anti-tank missiles, equipment and tools intended for breaching fences.”
• “During searches in the area, the soldiers of the battalion located a tunnel shaft containing a weapons warehouse with short-range anti-tank missiles, grenades, weapons, and explosives. This warehouse was intended to be used to carry out terrorist attacks against our forces. The tunnel shaft and the weapons were destroyed.”
• On a visit to Jabaliya, a city in the northern Strip which the IDF had previously left but to which it has now returned, IDF Chief of Staff Halevi said “we are dismantling the military wing of Hamas. We want to bring our hostages home alive, and we want to bring those who, unfortunately, are no longer alive back for burial in Israel. These are very, very important missions. The message is that even if there was a place we didn’t reach last time, and now we are reaching it, no place, no matter how many explosives they put in the walls and how many shafts they booby-trapped, no place will withstand an offensive by an IDF combat team.”
• In Jabaliya, the IDF says that raids were carried out on terrorist infrastructure in the agricultural areas. “During the raids, the soldiers located many weapons including vests, an FN MAG machine gun, hand grenades, explosives, and intelligence materials. During extensive searches and guided by intelligence, the troops arrived at a mosque where they located missiles and rocket launchers, which were destroyed.”
• In Khan Yunis, the Israeli Air Force struck and killed Hamas terrorist Ahmed Yasser Alkara. Alkara took part in the October 7th Massacre in communities in southern Israel and was said by the IDF to be “a significant anti-tank missile operative who carried out attacks on IDF troops during the war.” The IDF says that this operation was delayed when a child was observed near Alkara’s position, and only resumed once the child had moved away.
• In another operation, says the IDF, “IAF fighter jets directed by intelligence eliminated five Hamas terrorists operating from inside the Faami Aljerjawi School in Daraj Tuffah in the northern Gaza Strip. Among the terrorists that were eliminated were Fadi Salim, Head of Propaganda in Hamas’ Gaza Brigade, as well as three Hamas intelligence operatives and an additional Nukhba terrorist.”
• Meanwhile, COGAT says that Israel’s facilitation of the entry of humanitarian aid into the Strip continues. The IDF says that 450 humanitarian aid trucks were transferred through the Kerem Shalom Crossing and the Erez West Crossing yesterday, with 650 truckloads waiting for collection and distribution by international aid agencies on the Gazan side of the crossings.

Context: The US had previously referred to an Israeli operation in Rafah as a “red line”. However, the thus far limited – what the IDF calls “precise” – operations in the city appear to have assuaged the Biden Administration’s concerns, to a degree.

• US reassessment is thought be based on the movement out of civilians and the increased flow of humanitarian aid.
• Israel continues to stress that victory in its war with Hamas depends upon defeating its remaining battalions in Rafah, capturing its senior leadership, and securing the border crossing to prevent the smuggling of weapons.
• A high priority also remains the recovery of the remaining hostages, many of whom are thought to be held in Rafah. The government’s hope remains that pressure exerted on Hamas by the Rafah operation also makes a hostage deal more likely.
• In order to achieve this, the IDF is currently deploying its highest number of troops across Gaza since January.
• Humanitarian agencies continue to warn of the critical shortage of aid reaching the Gaza population.
• The IDF cites failures within Gaza itself as being the cause. Aid, it says, is “awaiting distribution due to the lack of logistical capabilities and manpower gaps in the international aid agencies, leading to the accumulation of humanitarian aid at the crossings.”
• A senior White House official yesterday criticised Egypt for obstructions on its end. “We do not believe that aid should be held back for any reason whatsoever. Kerem Shalom is open. The Israelis have it open. And that aid should be going through Kerem Shalom,” they said.
• The Egyptians closed the crossing to aid earlier this month after Israel began operating in Rafah and assumed control of the Gazan side of the crossing.
• The Israeli government also says that Hamas is disrupting the effective distribution of aid, either siphoning supplies off for themselves or in one instance detaining and holding Jordanian trucks. In the absence of non-Hamas affiliated Palestinian partners, aid distribution challenges are likely to continue.
• Far-right members of the Israeli cabinet and Security Cabinet have made no secret of their desire to see Israeli civilian resettlement in Gaza.
• Any such move is forcefully opposed by more moderate government voices. Last week, Defence Minister Gallant attempted to rule out not only civilian resettlement, but any post-war Israeli administration of the Strip whatsoever.
• Gallant said he would not serve in a government which sought to impose Israeli rule and called on Netanyahu to move swiftly to a plan for a post-war Palestinian administration.

Looking ahead: Footage will be released later of the October 7^th kidnapping of five female IDF spotters from the Nahal Oz base. The families of all five have agreed to the screening.

• Prime Minister Netanyahu has ruled out Israeli resettlement of Gaza. Such a move was “never in the cards,” Netanyahu claimed to CNN, “and I said so openly. Some of my constituents are not happy about it, but that’s my position.”
• Instead, Netanyahu called for “sustained demilitarisation of Gaza,” “a civilian administration that is run by Gazans who are neither Hamas nor committed to our destruction,” and “a reconstruction of Gaza, if possible, done by the moderate Arab states and the international community.”
• The prime minister also once more moved to rule out the formal involvement of the Palestinian Authority (PA) as the future governing force in the Strip. Despite others’ pushing for this, he said he would not allow an organisation to assume control which “still teaches its children to seek the destruction of Israel. That’s not my position. I want a different future for Israelis and Palestinians alike.”
• Despite US efforts, moves towards normalisation with Saudi Arabia appear to have stalled, with Netanyahu seemingly unwilling to meet Saudi demands over the creation of a Palestinian state.

What’s happened: The prosecutor of the International Criminal Court (ICC) yesterday applied for an arrest warrant for Prime Minister Netanyahu and Defense Minister Gallant relating to alleged crimes committed in the prosecution of Israel’s war in Gaza.

• Karim Khan, the British prosecutor, accused the two Israelis of “causing extermination, causing starvation as a method of war including the denial of humanitarian relief supplies, [and] deliberately targeting civilians in conflict.”
• “We submit that the crimes against humanity charged were committed as part of a widespread and systematic attack against the Palestinian civilian population pursuant to State policy. These crimes, in our assessment, continue to this day.”
• Khan also issued warrants for Hamas’s two most senior Gazan leaders, Yahya Sinwar and Mohammed Deif, and its foreign leader Ismail Haniyeh. The three are sought for overseeing extermination, murder, hostage-taking, rape, and sexual assault.
• “We submit that the crimes against humanity charged were part of a widespread and systematic attack against the civilian population of Israel by Hamas and other armed groups pursuant to organisational policies,” Khan said.
• Reaction from across the Israeli political spectrum was near-uniformly angry and incredulous.
• Netanyahu said: “The absurd and mendacious order by the prosecutor in The Hague isn’t directed only against the Israeli prime minister and the defence minister. It is directed against the State of Israel in its entirety… With what insolence do you dare to compare Hamas’s monsters with the soldiers of the IDF, the most moral army in the world?”
• War Cabinet Minister Gantz called Khan’s request “a crime of historic proportions.” “The State of Israel,” he said, “is waging one of the just wars fought in modern history following a reprehensible massacre perpetrated by terrorist Hamas on the 7th of October.”
• “While Israel fights with one of the strictest moral codes in history, while complying with international law and boasting a robust independent judiciary, drawing parallels between the leaders of a democratic country determined to defend itself from despicable terror to leaders of a bloodthirsty terror organisation is a deep distortion of justice and blatant moral bankruptcy.”
• Opposition Leader Lapid also condemned the decision, saying “it is not possible to issue arrest warrants against Netanyahu, Sinwar and Deif. There is no such comparison, we cannot accept it and it is unforgivable,” he said, before calling the decision “a terrible political failure.”
• President Herzog said, “the announcement of the prosecutor at the ICC is beyond outrageous, and shows the extent to which the international judicial system is in danger of collapsing.”
• “Taken in bad faith, this one-sided move represents a unilateral political step that emboldens terrorists around the world, and violates all the basic rules of the court according to the principle of complementarity and other legal norms.”
• President Biden also responded angrily. “The ICC prosecutor’s application for arrest warrants against Israeli leaders is outrageous,” he said. “And let me be clear: whatever this prosecutor might imply, there is no equivalence—none—between Israel and Hamas. We will always stand with Israel against threats to its security.”
• Secretary of State Blinken, similarly, said “we reject the prosecutor’s equivalence of Israel with Hamas. It is shameful. Hamas is a brutal terrorist organisation that carried out the worst massacre of Jews since the Holocaust and is still holding dozens of innocent people hostage, including Americans.”
• Blinken added there were “deeply troubling process questions” surrounding the announcement. “Despite not being a member of the court, Israel was prepared to cooperate with the prosecutor. In fact, the prosecutor himself was scheduled to visit Israel as early as next week to discuss the investigation and hear from the Israeli government. The prosecutor’s staff was supposed to land in Israel today to coordinate the visit.”
• “Israel was informed that they did not board their flight around the same time that the prosecutor went on cable television to announce the charges. These and other circumstances call into question the legitimacy and credibility of this investigation.”
• Prime Minister Sunak’s office criticised the deicsion, while the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office also hit out at the warrants, saying “we don’t believe that seeking warrants will help get hostages out, get aid in, or deliver a sustainable ceasefire. This remains the UK’s priority… As we have said from the outset, we do not think the ICC has jurisdiction in this case.”
• Deputy foreign minister Andrew Mitchell told Parliament that “the fact that the prosecutor has applied for arrest warrants to be issued does not directly impact, for example, on UK licensing decisions, but we will continue to monitor developments.”
• The German and Czech governments also spoke out against the warrant requests.

Context: Israeli officials have never before been issued with warrants from the ICC. Similarly, experts noted that this was the first time in its 21 years that the Court has sought to indict “Western” leaders.

• Israel is not among the 124 state signatories to the Rome Statute, which outlines the ICC’s jurisdiction, and therefore its writ and jurisdiction do not run to Israel itself.
• Nor can Netanyahu or Gallant face arrest when travelling in other countries not subject to the writ of the ICC, such as the US. Many of Israel’s European allies, however, including the UK, are subject to the court’s authority, meaning that they could face arrest if travelling there.
• The UK has joined the US in rejecting the jurisdiction of the court to consider Israeli conduct in the war due to its not being a member.
• In his remarks, Blinken also argued that the move was premature, with the court supposed to intervene only when domestic courts have failed to do so. “The ICC was established by its state parties as a court of limited jurisdiction,” he said. “Those limits are rooted in principles of complementarity, which do not appear to have been applied here amid the prosecutor’s rush to seek these arrest warrants rather than allowing the Israeli legal system a full and timely opportunity to proceed.”
• “In other situations, the prosecutor deferred to national investigations and worked with states to allow them time to investigate. The prosecutor did not afford the same opportunity to Israel, which has ongoing investigations into allegations against its personnel.”
• One of the arguments made against last year’s government programme of judicial reform was that the strength of the Israeli system’s independence represented an important bulwark against the intervention of international courts.
• From Khan’s remarks when announcing the warrant applications, it seems that the alleged denial or hampering of humanitarian aid to Gaza would form a cornerstone of any case. He called on Israel to “immediately allow access to humanitarian aid in Gaza at scale.”
• Israel has long denied that it is a blockage to sufficient aid reaching Gaza, and that Hamas looting and international failure are the true cause of privation.
• Prior to his appointment as ICC prosecutor, Khan served as a defence attorney, representing clients including Liberian dictator Charles Taylor and the son of Libyan dictator Muammar Gaddafi.
• Khan reportedly relied here upon expert advice from a panel of international legal experts, including American-Israeli scholar Theodor Meron, a Holocaust survivor who once served as legal counsel to Israel’s Foreign Ministry and as Israeli ambassador to Canada. The panel is said to have agreed with Khan’s view unanimously.
• Prior to October 7^th and the launching of Israel’s response in Gaza, the ICC was already investigating the conduct of both sides in 2014’s Israel-Hamas war (Operation Protective Edge).

Looking ahead: Khan’s warrants will now be considered by a three-judge ICC panel in ICC Pre-Trial Chamber I: Presiding Judge Iulia Motoc (Romania); Reine Alapini-Gansou (Benin) and Socorro Flores Liera (Mexico).

• It is rare for this pre-trial process to reverse the recommendation of the prosecutor. In only two of the 31 cases currently before the court has it failed to confirm warrants.
• In response to the announcement, the senior leadership of the National Security Council, the Justice Ministry, the chief military prosecutor and the Foreign Ministry all began deliberations on its impact and how to respond. Israeli officials will now decide whether or not to cooperate with the process.

What’s happened: The UK has announced that its first maritime aid delivery for the Gaza Strip has set sail from Larnaca, Cyprus.

• Comprising approximately 100 tones of shelter coverage kits for Gazan displaced persons, it will be delivered to the US-built temporary pier off the coast of Gaza City.
• Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said: “The UK has been working around the clock with our allies and partners to ensure more aid gets into Gaza via all possible routes – land, air and sea. We are leading international efforts with the US and Cyprus to establish a maritime aid corridor. Today’s first shipment of British aid from Cyprus to the temporary pier off Gaza is an important moment in increasing this flow.”
• The Royal Fleet Auxiliary’s vessel, Cardigan Bay, has supported the pier’s construction by housing hundreds of American soldiers and sailors who were involved in building it.
• First proposed in March, the US Navy and Army have now finished building a temporary pier which will facilitate the maritime delivery of humanitarian aid to the Gaza Strip. Initially, it will have the capacity to deliver 90 truckloads of aid a day, rising to 150. Aid agencies will oversee local distribution, and the US government has confirmed that none of its troops will be present in the Gaza Strip.
• The IDF confirmed its involvement in aiding in the pier’s construction, saying that “preparations were carried out over the last few weeks by the Engineering and Construction Department of the Ministry of Defense, the IDF, the Coordinator of Government Activities in the Territories and in cooperation with the U.S. Military.”
• The new maritime delivery corridor will complement overland aid delivery efforts which remain critical. Israel continues to facilitate these efforts and has opened additional inspection routes in the West Bank to increase the rate at which aid trucks can be searched before travelling to the Gaza Strip.
• This week’s shipments contained tents for civilians temporarily evacuating from Rafah, 38 trucks of flour, and 76,000 litres of fuel.
• On Thursday, according to the IDF, “365 humanitarian aid trucks entered the Gaza Strip through the Kerem Shalom Crossing operated by the Ministry of Defence’s Land Crossings Authority, as well as the Erez Crossing, following thorough security checks.”
• Elsewhere, another overland crossing from Israel into the Gaza Strip has been opened at Zikim. It will primarily facilitate the entry of trucks carrying aid from Ashdod Port once they have undergone security checks on the Israeli side of the border.
• Further, according to the IDF, the Tarqumiyah and Beitunia crossings in The West Bank were opened “for the first time since the beginning of the war in order to expand the inspection routes of humanitarian aid trucks going to the Gaza Strip, as part of efforts to increase the rate of inspection of aid.”
• Far-right Israeli activists are continuing their efforts to disrupt the overland passage of aid through Israel into the Gaza Strip, especially in the West Bank. On Wednesday, it was reported that a commercial truck was mistakenly identified as being part of an aid convoy and attacked by extremist activists who were arrested at the scene. These efforts are being coordinated by a group called “Tzav 9”, and non-violent protestors continue to demonstrate against the delivery of aid to the Gaza Strip as long as Hamas still holds Israeli hostages.

Context: Israel is now fully engaged in facilitating aid to the civilian population, whilst determined in its continued fight against Hamas.

• At the first stage of the operation in Rafah, Israel sent messages encouraging the civilian population to move through the humanitarian corridor into safe zones.
• Prior to the operation, an estimated 1.4 million Palestinians were sheltering in Rafah, many of whom had fled fighting in the north and centre of the Gaza Strip. The IDF estimates that 700,000 Gazans have so far left through corridors.
• The UK sees itself as having played a critical role in facilitating the maritime corridor between Cyprus and the Gaza Strip, and will continue doing so as long it operates. It will also continue its efforts to “unlock more [land] routes to get vital aid in”.
• Israel has evacuated the eastern third of Rafah, and as these efforts expand to the rest of the city it is almost certain hundreds of thousands of its residents will travel north to tent cities which have been erected in Khan Yunis and Al Mawasi.
• Prior to the operation, Israel oversaw the construction of tens of thousands of temporary shelters. This latest UK shipment supports those efforts.
• While Israel continues to facilitate the entry of aid into the Gaza Strip, internal distribution challenges remain the primary obstacle to ensuring it reaches those in need.
• The Israeli government also claims that Hamas are disrupting the effective distribution of aid, either siphoning supplies off for themselves or in one instance detaining and holding Jordanian trucks. In the absence of non-Hamas affiliated Palestinian partners, aid distribution challenges are likely to continue.
• Although aid is meant to be distributed for free, according to veteran commentator Ehud Yaari, talking on Channel 12 News, Hamas has earned half a billion dollars from exploiting the aid since the beginning of the conflict.
• The resumption of commercial haulage to Gaza is significant. Limited commercial trucks, primarily Gazan businessmen, have only been recently reintroduced, stopped since October 7th. As of Wednesday, 52 had travelled into the Gaza Strip.

Looking ahead: The UK Government said its aid would be distributed in Gaza “as soon as feasible.”

• Sunak said of aid that “we know that more is required, particularly via land, which is why alongside intensive work to get hostages out of Gaza we will continue efforts to unlock more routes to get vital aid in – helping people in desperate need.”
• On an aerial tour of Gaza and in meetings with divisions active in Rafah yesterday, Prime Minister Netanyahu affirmed Israel’s commitment to continuing to operate in the city. “The battle in Rafah is critical,” he said. “It is not only the remaining battalions there but their escape and supply pipelines.”

Memorial Day: Today Israel remembers fallen IDF soldiers and victims of terror attacks.

• To date, 25,040 IDF soldiers have died in Israel’s wars.
• Since October 7th, 716 IDF soldiers and other security personnel have been killed in action. This total includes 8 soldiers killed in the last week.
• Since last Memorial Day, 834 civilians were murdered, bringing the total of Israeli civilians murdered in terror attacks to 5,100. Twelve Israeli civilians had been murdered since last Memorial Day prior to October 7th.
• This morning at 1100 local time, a two-minute memorial siren was heard across the country. The official state ceremony at Mount Herzl was attended by Prime Minister Netanyahu, President Yitzhak Herzog, Knesset Speaker Ohana and the heads of the security forces.

Gaza Strip: Since the weekend, the IDF has been operating across the Gaza Strip in the south, centre and north. The IDF says it has struck 150 targets across the Strip in the last day.

• On Sunday, the IDF expanded its precise operation against Hamas in Eastern Rafah. The IDF announced, “since the start of our precise operation against Hamas in Rafah we have eliminated dozens of terrorists, exposed underground terror tunnels and vast amounts of weapons. Prior to our operations we urge civilians to temporarily move towards humanitarian areas and move away from the crossfire that Hamas puts them in.”
• Four months after the IDF gained control over Jabalya, the second-largest city in the northern Gaza Strip, the IDF has returned after Hamas reconstituted its military position close to the Israeli border.
• As a clear sign of Hamas’s remaining capabilities, they have fired over 20 rockets in the last 24 hours aimed towards Sderot Ashkelon and Beer Sheva. Most were intercepted or landed in open areas, but one rocket directly struck a building in Ashkelon, slightly wounding three people and causing extensive damage to an apartment.
• At least five more rockets were fired from Rafah at the humanitarian aid crossing at Kerem Shalom, all of which were either intercepted or landed in open areas.
• The IDF has also been operating in Gaza City’s Zeitoun neighbourhood. At the onset, the IDF called on the local population of more than 100,000 people to leave. This is because of the familiar Hamas approach of embedding themselves within the civilian population, where they had renewed their military control.

Humanitarian assistance: On Sunday, the IDF announced the opening of the ‘Western Erez’ Crossing in the northern Gaza strip, emphasising it was done in coordination with the US government.

• The ID noted this crossing “is part of the effort to increase aid routes to the Gaza Strip, and to the northern Gaza Strip in particular… Dozens of trucks of flour were coordinated from the Port of Ashdod on behalf of the World Food Programme organisation after undergoing security checks.”
• Ahead of the (so far) limited operation in Rafah, Israel facilitated the entry of tens of thousands of tents provided by the UAE and others for Palestinians leaving Rafah towards Khan Yunis.
• On Friday, the Coordinator of Government Activities in the Territories (COGAT) announced the transfer of 200,000 litres of fuel, “transferred to address the ongoing and essential requirements of the international community, including hospitals, humanitarian areas, logistical centres and the distribution of humanitarian aid.”
• On Saturday, a new field hospital was set up in central Gaza. According to the IDF, “the establishment of the hospital was coordinated and enabled through the entry of medical workers and medical equipment, including medicines, beds, food, water, tents, first aid equipment, ventilators, and materials for the construction of the field hospital… The field hospital will be operated by 150 international medical aid workers, and its dozens of beds can be used for emergency and routine medical treatment.”
• The IDF noted, “the hospital joins seven other field hospitals that have been established in the Gaza Strip since the start of the war. It is located in the area of Deir al-Balah, which serves to provide humanitarian aid to the Gazan residents temporarily evacuated from the eastern Rafah area. As part of the humanitarian measures to facilitate the temporary evacuation of civilians from the eastern Rafah area, some of the existing field hospitals were transferred to the expanded Humanitarian Area in Al-Mawasi in coordination with the international community, where there is an increased supply of tents, food, water, and medicine.”

Cameron rejects arms embargo: while reiterating the UK’s opposition to the operation in Rafah, Foreign Secretary Cameron yesterday told Sky News that a UK arms embargo would “strengthen Hamas”.

• Comparing the UK’s minor role as a weapons supplier to Israel with that of the US, Cameron said: “The United States is a massive bulk state supplier of weapons to Israel… The UK provides less than 1 percent of Israel’s weapons and is not a state supplier. We have a licensing system and those licences can be closed if it’s judged there’s a serious risk of a serious international human rights violation.”
• He reminded viewers that the last time there had been pressure on the UK Government to consider an embargo, “a few days later there was a massive Iranian attack on Israel, including 140 cruise missiles. So I don’t think it would have been a wise path.”
• “If I announced that today,” he continued, “it might help me get through this television interview, but actually it would strengthen Hamas. It would weaken Israel.”

Context: The mood in Israel is particularly sombre today as Israel marks the traditional annual Memorial Day, whilst still in active combat across Gaza and in the north and with 132 hostages having remained in Hamas captivity for 219 days.

• In the north, two IDF reservists were killed by a kamikaze drone strike at an army position near Metula last week, while a third was killed in a separate attack. The IDF responded with airstrikes on Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon,
• In Gaza, a disturbing pattern has repeated itself: once the IDF leaves a combat zone, Hamas fighters have been able to return, regroup and reestablish control.
• This is placing extra pressure on the political leadership to decide who will manage Gaza ‘the day after’.
• Yossi Yehoshua, in Yediot Ahronot, spelt out the concern, writing “military officials have said that a decision has to be made about the regime that will take the reins in Gaza in the future. Security  officials have said that no one wants Hamas. As such, the options remaining are either the Palestinian Authority or moderate forces in the Gaza Strip that enjoy the support of Arab countries. The third option, one of an Israeli military administration, is untenable…”
• Meanwhile, efforts are still underway to reach an agreement for the release of hostages and a ceasefire. Despite hopes that Hamas had ‘agreed’, significant gaps remain:
  • Hamas cannot guarantee how many of the 33 female soldiers, sick and elderly are still alive.
  • Hamas refusing Israel’s insistence to have a veto over certain heavyweight terrorists that will be released in exchange.
  • The sequencing of the deal: how may hostages will be released after how many days.
  • Hamas are also seeking a longer pause: 12 weeks as opposed to 6 in an effort to end the fighting completely – something Israel will only consider for the release of all the hostages.
• Hamas continues its psychological warfare, releasing another hostage video, the third in a month.
• In Rafah, Israel is thus far limiting its operations to pinpoint missions. Concern for the safety of any hostages being held in Rafah, along with the over one million civilians, is allied to a desire to reduce tensions with Egypt which have been inflamed over Cairo’s opposition to any operation in Rafah.

Looking ahead: One of Israel’s most immediate diplomatic priorities will be maintaining ties with Cairo and securing Egyptian cooperation for ongoing operations in Rafah and elsewhere in the Gaza Strip.

• There will likely be diplomatic fallout from Cairo’s decision to support South Africa’s case against Israel at the ICJ (see Israeli Media Summary below).
• Egypt’s opposition to an operation in Rafah, like that of other Arab states, has implications for the Arab world’s involvement in the ‘day after’ in Gaza and will require delicate handling