Potential hostage deal: Hamas announced last night that it had received the latest proposal for a ceasefire and hostage release, but did not relay its response to any of the sides involved in the negotiations.

• A spokesman for the Qatari Foreign Ministry said that Israel had agreed to the proposal and that they also received initial agreement from Hamas, though no formal Hamas acceptance of the terms has happened yet.
• The Israeli Security Cabinet met last night to discuss the proposed deal, with a senior Israeli official estimating its chances of success at 50 percent.
• The Wall Street Journal reports that the proposal on the table would involve a three-stage process to return all 136 hostages, both living and dead, in exchange for a ceasefire in Gaza and the release of Palestinian prisoners in Israeli jails. The ratio of hostages freed to Palestinian prisoners released remains contentious, with Hamas said to be holding out for 150 prisoners released for each female soldier being held.
  • Stage one would see a six-week ceasefire observed in Gaza, during which Hamas would round up the hostages ready for release. It is expected that elderly and sick will be released in this round. Gazan residents will also be allowed to move freely around the Strip.
  • Stage two would witness the release of female soldiers held hostage, as well as an increase in humanitarian aid into Gaza and guarantees that hospitals, bakeries and water services will retain the ability to function.
  • Stage three would see the release of male soldiers and the bodies of dead hostages.

Israel-Egypt: Talks are ongoing between the two countries concerning the Philadelphi Corridor, the narrow strip running the full length of the Egypt-Gaza border.

• In a bid to prevent the smuggling of weapons from Egypt to terror groups in the Strip, Israel has proposed to secure the corridor with IDF troops, a move previously opposed by Egypt.
• Now, however, Israeli officials are briefing that the two sides are “nearing consent” on a “certain Israeli presence” in the corridor. This follows a meeting held this week between Shin Bet Director Bar and IDF Intelligence Director Maj. Gen. Haliva at Egyptian intelligence headquarters in Cairo, in which an alternative to troops on the ground was discussed, which would see “technological” measures installed above the Philadelphi Corridor on the Israeli side that would detect the presence of Palestinians or attempts to approach the corridor in order to reach Sinai or to smuggle weapons and military equipment to Gaza through tunnels.
• Israel is also understood to have held talks with a Persian Gulf state in a bid to persuade it to finance the construction of an underground barrier that would completely disconnect Gaza from Sinai.
• Agreement also seems to have been reached to allay Egyptian fears that fighting in the Rafah area, close to the Egypt-Gaza border, would prompt some of the million-odd Palestinian refugees in the area to flee into Egyptian territory. Israel is thought to have committed, for now, to avoiding military action there.

Context: A hostage deal of the type described continues to be vehemently opposed by elements within the Israeli coalition, most especially Finance Minister Smotrich and National Security Minister Ben Gvir. (For more details on the political manoeuvring see Israeli Media Summary below.)

• Hostage families have maintained a campaign to prioritise the captives’ release for several months. Yesterday, hundreds of protesters blocked Begin Boulevard in Tel Aviv, calling for their release. The protest saw clashes with police.
• In parallel, US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan met with Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer after having first met with representatives of the hostages’ families and speaking with Qatari Prime Minister Al Thani.
• Prime Minister Netanyahu and other senior ministers maintain that a hostage deal will not signal the end of Israel’s campaign in Gaza, and that Israel will not stop short of its stated war aim of the total defeat of Hamas. There are fears, however, that it will be difficult to resume intense fighting after a protracted ceasefire.
• Nonetheless, Israeli forces in the Strip have already been gradually reduced. At the height of the ground operation there were four divisions in the Gaza Strip. Six brigades now remain – two in the north and four in the south in Khan Yunis.

The Biden Doctrine?: The New York Times’ Thomas Friedman – a journalist close to the Biden Administration –  wrote yesterday that the president is considering “some form of US recognition of a demilitarised Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza Strip that would come into being only once Palestinians had developed a set of defined, credible institutions and security capabilities to ensure that this state was viable and that it could never threaten Israel.”

• Biden also yesterday signed an executive order imposing sanctions on Israeli West Bank settlers involved in violence against Palestinians.
• Four individuals have been targeted in the first round of sanctions, which include bans on entry to the US and on property and financial access in the country.
• In the order, Biden said: “The situation in the West Bank — in particular high levels of extremist settler violence, forced displacement of people and villages, and property destruction — has reached intolerable levels and constitutes a serious threat to the peace, security and stability.”
• In response, Netanyahu said that “the vast majority of residents of Judea and Samaria are law-abiding citizens, many of whom are fighting right now in active and reserve duty to protect Israel. Israel acts against all violators of the law in all places… and therefore there is no place for drastic steps on this matter.”
• The US previously imposed visa restrictions on those settlers proven to have engaged in violence in December 2023, but yesterday’s measures are the furthest any US president has gone in this regard.

Context: Earlier this week, US State Department spokesman Matt Miller confirmed that the administration is “actively pursuing the establishment of an independent Palestinian state – with real security guarantees for Israel, because we do believe that is the best way to bring about lasting peace and security for Israel, for Palestinians, and for the region.”

• “There has been no policy shift in the administration. We have made quite clear publicly that we support the establishment of an independent Palestinian state. That has been the policy of the United States for some time. It has been the policy of this administration.”
• “There are any number of sequencing of events that you could carry out to accomplish that objective… We look at any number of options. That’s part of the normal planning process. The vast majority of options never usually get implemented.”
• UK Foreign Secretary Cameron also hinted at potential UK recognition of Palestinian statehood earlier this week, saying “we have a responsibility there because we should be starting to set out what a Palestinian state would look like, what it would comprise, how it would work and crucially, looking at the issue, that as that happens, we with allies will look at the issue of recognising a Palestinian state, including at the United Nations. That could be one of the things that helps to make this process irreversible.”
• The recognition of Palestinian statehood prior to a negotiated agreement being reached between Israel and the Palestinians would upend a decades-long consensus amongst Israel’s allies that recognition is the culmination of a process, not a step along its way.
• It has generally been held that such moves surrender valuable political capital required in encouraging Palestinians to end their intransigence in future negotiations.
• Further, there have been fears that pre-emptive recognition risks provoking dangerous and potentially violent disappointment when they fail to shift on-the-ground realities.
• Prior to October 7, moves towards normalisation between Israel and Saudi Arabia were thought have been close to fruition, having been a major priority both of the Biden administration and the Netanyahu government. Part of the motivation of Hamas and its Iranian patron on October 7 was to scupper the process.
• Riyadh reportedly had significant demands of Washington to proceed with the deal, including assistance with a (purportedly civilian) nuclear programme, sales of advanced weapons, and closer ties between the two countries whose relations had grown frostier. Biden assumed office promising to ‘get tough’ with Saudi Arabia in the wake of the assassination of Jamal Khashoggi.

Looking ahead: A delegation representing Palestinian Islamic Jihad is also due to visit Cairo shortly to join the talks on a hostage release.

Photo credit: IDF Spokesperson’s Office

What’s happened: On Monday, Israel suffered its heaviest loses since the beginning of the ground offensive.

• The IDF Spokesperson’s Office announced this morning that 21 IDF reservists were killed in an incident inside the Gaza Strip yesterday.
• According to initial reports, the IDF soldiers were in the process of destroying buildings using mines, together with engineering troops. Two rocket-propelled grenades were fired, the first towards a tank, as a result of which two soldiers were killed. The second RPG was fired at one of the buildings that already had explosives inside. These then detonated, leading to the buildings collapsing.
• Through the night, rescue teams operated to extract injured soldiers and retrieve the bodies. In addition to the fatalities, seven soldiers were injured and transferred to hospital, two in serious condition, two moderate, and three light.
• The incident took place just 600 metres from the border fence on the Gaza side. The buildings designated for demolition were part of the plan to create a buffer zone and restore a sense of security for when Israelis can return to their homes so close to the fence.
• In a separate incident, three IDF officers were also killed yesterday in an intense fire fight between IDF troops and Hamas gunmen in Khan Yunis. Three more soldiers were seriously wounded.

Humanitarian Aid: Sunday saw a record high 260 humanitarian aid trucks enter the Gaza Strip, the most on any single day since the outset of the war. An additional 213 trucks went in yesterday.

• According to data provided by the Coordinator of Government Activities in the Territories Office, 9,923 aid trucks have entered the Gaza Strip so far in the war, delivering 182,670 tonnes of humanitarian aid. The total includes:
  • 5,586 trucks transporting 117,350 tonnes of food.
  • 1,440 trucks transporting 20,780 tonnes of shelter.
  • 1,143 trucks transporting 13,550 tonnes of medical supplies.
  • 947 trucks transporting 19,020 tonnes of water.
  • 807 trucks transporting 11,970 tonnes of other aid.

• Nonetheless, Yediot Ahronot suggests that “most of the humanitarian aid being delivered to the Gaza Strip isn’t reaching its intended recipients and has done little to help the civilian population,” with “Hamas officials who control the aid coming into Gaza… unmoved by the sight of hungry and cold children.”

Context: In total, 221 IDF soldiers have been killed since the beginning of the ground operation inside Gaza and a total of 555 IDF soldiers have been killed since Hamas launched its attack on October 7th.

• These announcements follow strict protocols. As with all fatalities, the immediate family members are notified before the deaths are made public. In addition, the immediate family notifies the wider family before the names are released to the media.
• Reports claim that Israel has presented a new potential hostage deal to Egyptian and Qatari mediators.
• The proposed deal would see Israel agree to pause fighting in the Gaza Strip for two months and to the release of a large number of Palestinian prisoners – including those sentenced for serious crimes – in exchange for the release of all of the hostages and the bodies of dead Israelis held in Gaza, with releases occurring in several stages.
• The first stage would see the release of the remaining women hostages, alongside men over 60 and those in poor health. Female soldiers, male soldiers, and those hostages serving in civilian security squads would be released in later stages, as would the bodies of those who have died.
• In total over 250 people were kidnapped on October 7th. 121 have so far been extricated, while 136 remain in captivity. Of those, it is estimated at least 27 are no longer alive.
• Alongside the hostage releases, Israel would agree to a fighting pause which would see an IDF redeployment in Gaza, away from major population centres, and the monitored return to their homes of displaced residents of Gaza City and the northern Gaza Strip.
• Meeting yesterday with hostages’ families, Prime Minister Netanyahu confirmed that Israel had presented a deal and was awaiting Hamas’s response.
• Netanyahu hinted that, in the meantime, the intensity of Israeli operations in Gaza would remain high, since his view is that the greater the military pressure on Hamas, the more likely it us that Hamas will accept the Israeli proposal.
• Netanyahu also claimed that no military operation to free the remaining hostages was currently on the table, and that, contrary to reports, there was uniformity of opinion on the hostage question within the war cabinet.
• Reports have recently claimed that Minister Gadi Eisenkot – who entered the War Cabinet alongside Minister Gantz – has advocated a greater priority placed on releasing hostages, even if it comes at the cost of limiting combat.
• Elsewhere, a small group of hostages’ relatives burst into a meeting being held by the Knesset Finance Committee yesterday.
• They held up placards addressed to MKs reading “You won’t sit here while they’re dying there,” and “You brought down a government over hametz, but not over this?” (The latter is a reference to the collapse of the Bennett-Lapid government in 2022.)
• Last night, around 200 people, including released hostages and their families, demonstrated near the Prime Minister’s Residence on Azza Street in Jerusalem, some spending the whole night there.

Looking ahead: In the latest US diplomatic efforts, US National Security Council Coordinator for the Middle East and North Africa Brett McGurk is in Cairo to advance a hostage deal. He is expected to proceed to Qatar.

• President Biden supports a temporary pause in fighting to secure a hostage release and the delivery of more humanitarian aid to Gaza.
• Israel’s war cabinet is expected to convene on Thursday to discuss this issue, with a delay caused by last night’s disaster in Gaza.

What’s happened: The IDF continue to operate deep in Khan Yunis, and have made advances in the south and west of the city.

• Defence Minister Gallant met with the families of hostages on Sunday and told them that as they advance in Khan Yunis, there are initial signs that reaching Hamas’s most sensitive areas is moving Israel closer to accomplishing the two supreme missions of the war.
• On Sunday, the IDF released footage of a tunnel where hostages had been held underneath Khan Yunis.
• In parallel, family members of the hostages set up a tent encampment outside the prime minister’s private home in Jerusalem. Gabriela Leimberg, who spent 53 days in captivity to Hamas, told the gathering, “Mr. Prime Minister, every day in captivity is hell. The soldiers and the hostages were abandoned on your watch. They are out of time. I ask you, rescue them and bring back all the bodies.”
• On Sunday Prime Minister Netanyahu said, “We are continuing the war on all fronts and in all sectors. We are not giving immunity to any terrorist: Not in Gaza, not in Lebanon, not in Syria and not anywhere. Whoever tries to harm us, we will harm him.”
• “Regarding our hostages, we have returned home – as of today – 110 of our hostages and we are obligated to returning all of them. This is one of the goals of the war and the military pressure is a necessary condition to achieving it.”
• “Hamas is demanding, in exchange for the release of our hostages, the end of the war, the withdrawal of our forces from Gaza, the release of the murders and rapists of the Nukhba and leaving Hamas in place. Were we to agree to this – our soldiers would have fallen in vain. Were we to agree to this – we would not be able to ensure the security of our citizens. We would be unable to safely restore the evacuees to their homes and the next October 7 would be only a question of time. I am not prepared to accept such a mortal blow to the security of Israel; therefore, we will not agree to this.”

Context: The Israeli government continues to insist that military pressure is the best way to secure the release of more hostages, but faces increased pressure from the family of the hostages, from the US, and from the political opposition.

• The tents erected in Jerusalem are the latest efforts to ratchet up the pressure by the families of the hostages. After over 100 days the campaign is evolving. Over the weekend around 2,000 people protested outside the prime minister’s home in Caesaria.
• On Thursday evening, seven protestors were detained after they blocked the main Tel Aviv highway – a tactic used by those campaigning against judicial reform last year.
• Netanyahu and his government are also facing growing pressure from the US to present a diplomatic vision for the ‘day after’.
• After three weeks of not speaking directly, Netanyahu said that he told President Biden over the weekend, “after we eliminate Hamas, there will no entity in Gaza that finances terrorism, educates for terrorism or sends terrorists. Gaza must be demilitarised, under Israel’s full security control. I will not compromise on full Israeli security control of all territory west of the Jordan River.”
• Netanyahu also declared, “My insistence is what has prevented, over the years, the establishment of a Palestinian state that would have constituted an existential danger to Israel. As long as I am Prime Minister, I will continue to strongly insist on this.”
• In the past, going back to his Bar Ilan speech in 2009, through to the Trump Peace Plan Netanyahu has cautiously accepted the principle of a demilitarised Palestinian State. Articulating such an acceptance now is harder due to the constraints of his hard right coalition partners.
• Behind the scenes, it is thought that Israel could be prepared to make a deal that entails a diplomatic arrangement and the release of terrorists from prison, but not members of Hamas’s elite Nukhba force, members of which committed the October 7 massacre.
• Despite international pressure, the IDF is not yet expected to withdraw from the Gaza Strip and will not let residents return to the northern Gaza Strip as long as the hostages are not returned.
• Only then can reconstruction efforts begin, Israel says, led by the pro-stability Arab states.
• Netanyahu’s reference to Lebanon and Syria comes as further attacks have been reported. According to Arab media sources, over the weekend five Iranian military officials from the IRGC  were killed in Damascus, alongside six Syrians. One of the Iranians, nicknamed Haji Sadek, had served as senior intelligence officer and in the past had been involved in targeting US assets in Syria.
• In addition, Lebanese sources reported a strike on a car near Tyre. The targets were also thought to be connected to the IRGC.
• Meanwhile, attacks from Lebanon into northern Israel have also continued, including an anti-tank missile that struck an empty home in Moshav Avivim, causing significant damage.
• To date, approximately 80,000 Israelis from northern communities are internally displaced due to Hezbollah’s rocket, mortar, drone, and anti-tank missile attacks from Lebanon since 7^th October. These attacks have killed six civilians and nine soldiers.
• Similarly, the IDF have continued to attack Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon, taking their overall casualties to 165 combatants.
• Meanwhile, the Israeli government acquiesced to another US demand and approved releasing tax funds to the Palestinian Authority (PA).
• However the security cabinet approved measures to ensure none of the money would reach Gaza. Instead, a new mechanism would see the money assigned to Gaza deposited in trust with a third country, Norway.  Both the US and Norway have committed not to pass it onto Gaza, nor via a loan. If the clause is broken, Finance Minister Smotrich has insisted that all money to the PA will be frozen.
• The Shin Bet and Defence Ministry supported the release of the funds in order to maintain stability in the West Bank and ensure the PA can survive.
• Despite last week’s agreement to allow medicine into Gaza, there is still no indication that the medicine reached the hostages.
• At Israel’s request, at least 45 hostages who suffer from chronic diseases were supposed to receive various medicines, including insulin, asthma inhalers, medicine for high blood pressure and heart conditions. The French Foreign Ministry who facilitated the deal said yesterday that it had no information about where the medicines were, aside from the fact that they are in Gaza.
• For the first time since the war began, the Labour Party will present a vote of no-confidence in the Knesset. Whilst it does not currently have the support even from all members of the opposition, it is a declaratory move indicating that, from the Labour Party’s perspective, the period of political grace is over.

Looking ahead: Mounting pressure from the US, Egypt and Qatar could result in a return to negotiations for a hostage release deal. However, it is difficult to see Israel accepting Hamas’s terms.

• According to the New York Times the US, the UK, and European officials are pressuring Israel to send humanitarian aid to Gaza via Israeli ports in order to alleviate the humanitarian crisis.

Gaza: The IDF announced it had destroyed a strategic tunnel used for terrorist activity that connected between the north and south of the Gaza Strip.

• The tunnel was reportedly hundreds of metres long, 90 metres deep, and had close to 5,700 shafts. It was used by Hamas for getting across the Strip.
• The IDF said Hamas used over 6,000 tonnes of concrete and 1,800 tonnes of steel for its extensive tunnel network and had invested tens of millions of dollars in the project.
• Elsewhere, a heavy barrage of rockets from Gaza included a hit on a civilian store in Netivot. The rockets were fired from an area in Gaza that the IDF had recently left.
• Meanwhile, a delegation of Israeli security officials arrived in Cairo for meetings with senior Egyptian officials.
• According to a statement issued by the Prime Minister’s Bureau (following a formal Qatari statement on the issue) hostages will begin to receive medication today.
• The medication for the hostages, as well as humanitarian aid that Israel agreed could be supplied to the Gaza Strip in exchange for said medication, will be delivered by two Qatari air force planes to El-Arish, and from there to the Gaza Strip.
• The Shin Bet said that an Islamic Jihad commander, Bassel Mahdi, who was captured in Gaza, told of how members of his organisation were trained in Iran.
• Two reservists were killed in fighting in northern Gaza, bringing the total death toll since the ground incursion to 192.

West Bank: A joint statement by the IDF and the Shin Bet announced three members of a terror cell were killed in Nablus by drone strike. The individuals who were killed were responsible for one of the main terror cells in the West Bank.

• Abdallah Abu Shalal and his squad were responsible for a number of attacks in the past year, including the shooting attack in the Shimon HaTzadik neighbourhood of Jerusalem last April, where two Israeli civilians were injured.

The north: The IDF struck Hezbollah targets in Lebanon, on the Suluki valley more than 20 kilometres from the Israeli border. The IDF reported that it used Air Force and artillery, targeting dozens of Hezbollah “positions, military instillations and weapons production infrastructure.”

• Lebanese security sources told Reuters there were at least 16 airstrikes in quick succession on the Valley, describing them as the “densest bombardment of a single location” since hostilities began.
• The Lebanese daily Al-Akhbar reported that President Biden’s envoy, Amos Hochstein, proposed that Hezbollah be pushed back seven kilometres from the border with Israel and the Lebanese army be stationed in southern Lebanon. According to the report, Hochstein said that “there is no need for a withdrawal to the north of the Litani River.”

Red Sea: The Houthis targeted with naval missiles the Malta-flagged, Greek-owned carrier Zografia ship near the Yemeni port of Saleef. This resulted in a “direct hit,” according to the group. The ship, that was heading to Israel, sustained material damage but no injuries.

• US Central Command conducted a strike in Yemen that destroyed four Houthi anti-ship ballistic missiles, in response for Houthi attacks on international shipping lanes in the Red Sea.

Davos: Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan told a panel at the World Economic Forum in Davos that the Kingdom could normalise relations with Israel if a comprehensive deal were reached including Palestinian statehood. “We agree that regional peace includes peace for Israel, but that could only happen through peace for the Palestinians through a Palestinian state.”

• Also at Davos, US Secretary of State Blinken said Arab countries claim that they do not “want to get into the business of rebuilding Gaza only to have it levelled again.”
• US National Security Adviser Sullivan also spoke at Davos and explained the US’s strategy prior to October 7: “our approach was and remains focused on moving toward greater integration and stability in the region,” he said. “Long before October 7, the US was deeply engaged in an effort to secure a political horizon for the Palestinian people – with Israel’s security guaranteed as part of that.”
• “We judged that direct negotiations between Israelis and Palestinians, which had fallen short so many times before, it was unlikely to succeed. We determined the best approach was to work toward a package deal that involved normalization between Israel and key Arab states, together with meaningful progress and a political horizon for the Palestinian people.”
• “That was our goal before October 7, and it was our progress toward that goal that Hamas sought to destroy,” he said. He went on to say: “That is the reality Israel is contending with – a determined terrorist threat that chose as its battlefield the communities of innocent civilians, and still to this day holds more than 100 hostages in circumstances that are dire and deteriorating.”

Context: Divisions continue within the Israeli cabinet. Minister Gantz, who joined the Netanyahu coalition after October 7 in order to help prosecute the war, recently submitted a list of demands to Prime Minister Netanyahu and the National Security Council regarding seven issues that are critical for the ongoing war which need to be discussed and decisions made on them:

• These include:
  • Reiterating the government’s war goals, especially as they pertain to the hostages.
  • The future of Philadelphi Road, which runs along the length of the Gaza-Egypt border, and the mechanism to prevent future smuggling operations.
  • The mechanism for distributing humanitarian aid and administering civilian life in Gaza, either by means of an international mechanism or some other mechanism.
  • The timetable and conditions to allow the residents of the Gaza periphery and the northern communities to return to their communities.
  • A deadline for the diplomatic efforts to reach an arrangement for the northern border which pushes Hezbollah and its elite Radwan force away from the border.
• Some of the above issues have not been discussed at all whereas others have only been discussed superficially. At all events, no decisions have been made on any of them.
• Gantz and his political ally Eisenkot also endorsed the warnings that were issued by IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Halevi and Defense Minister Gallant, who said that the achievements that have been made in the war would be eroded unless complementary political decisions were made.
• The US continues to try and exert pressure on Israel to strengthen the Palestinian Authority (PA). Officials recently told Israel that they expect to see the transfer of funds owed to the PA, as well as the entry of Palestinian labourers into Israel. Strong opposition exists within some elements of the cabinet to both of these steps (for more details on the debate over Palestinian labourers see Tuesday’s BICOM brief).
• The fact that rockets have emanated from areas the IDF has recently left has led to debate about whether it needs to return (see Israeli Media Summary below).
• Hochstein’s alleged suggestion that Hezbollah move north, but not beyond the Litani river, is a moderation of the demands of UN Resolution 1701, with which Hezbollah has continually refused to comply, and which calls for their withdrawal north of the river.
• Hochstein’s mediation is part of wider US efforts to dampen tensions between Israel and Hezbollah on the norther border and prevent an escalation Washington fears could spread to a regional war.

Northern border: Attacks have continued from Lebanon towards northern Israel.

• Several anti-tank missiles were launched toward the areas of Zar’it, Shomera, and Kfar Yuval.
• In Kfar Yuval, the missile hit a house, killing 76-year-old Mira Ayalon and her son, 45-year-old Barak. The father, Eliyahu was also injured.
• The missiles are believed to have been fired from Adeisa, a Lebanese village that is six kilometers east of Kfar Yuval.
• Rockets were also fired toward the communities of Misgav Am and Goren that mostly landed in open areas.
• Earlier on Sunday there was an attempted infiltration in the Mount Dov area (where there is no fence). Three combatants were killed in the ensuing exchanges of fire. Kalashnikov rifles, magazines, hand grenades and anti-tank missiles were found in their possession. Three IDF soldiers were wounded in the incident.
• In response to these attacks, the IDF struck Hezbollah targets, deep into Lebanon, as far as Jabal Safi, which is 35 kilometres from the Israeli border.

Tel Aviv: Over the weekend families of the hostages and their supporters held a 24-hour rally to mark 100 days in captivity.

• President Herzog spoke in English with a message to the world. “From Hostage Square in Tel Aviv, a symbol of solidarity and humanity,” he said, “I call upon the entire family of nations to do your part. This isn’t just about our battle, it is a battle for the entire world. Stand with life and liberty against barbarism and hate. Stand with freedom and democracy, stand with our hostages, and help bring them back home. There is no ‘later’. The time to act is now.”
• Shelly, the mother of Omer Shem Tov who is being held captive, said, “my husband and I were raised on mutual responsibility and that is how we raised our kids too. We raised them that we don’t leave anyone behind. Onehundred days in which I haven’t had air to breathe and Omer, who is in captivity without his ventilator, really doesn’t have air to breathe. One hundred days in which I’ve gone into Omer’s room and I’ve told him to be strong and have prayed. I’m asking Omer to wait a bit more, another drop. We’ll get you home.”
• Simon Walters, the British Ambassador, delivered a personal message of support from Foreign Secretary Cameron.
• The US Ambassador was also among the speakers, as well as a prerecorded speech by French President Emmanuel Macron.

Context: The IDF’s assessment is that Hezbollah has escalated its attacks in response to the death of senior Hezbollah commanders killed last week, including the commander of their Radwan commando unit, whose remit includes planning infiltration attempts, and the commander of their drone operations in southern Lebanon.

• The infiltration attempt in Mount Dov was claimed by a Palestinian terror group in Lebanon, in response to the recent killing of Hamas leaders Salah al-Arouri and Samir Fendi in Beirut.
• Overall, according to the IDF, around 2,000 rockets, mortars, anti-tank missiles and UAVs have been fired from Lebanon into Israel over the past 100 days.
• Another 30 have been fired from Syria.
• The IDF has struck around 750 targets and has killed around 170 military combatants.
• In the south, the IDF maintain that the military campaign to dismantle Hamas’s military infrastructure is the best method to secure the return the hostages.
• However, there appear to be disagreements within the war cabinet. Minister Gantz and Eisenkot support the statements made by the hostages’ families, that everything must be done in order to reach a deal.
• Prime Minister Netanyahu and Defence Minister Gallant have argued that only military pressure would be able to bring about a deal to free the hostages.
• Despite withdrawing troops from northern Gaza, four divisions continue to operate inside Gaza. According to IDF Chief of Staff, Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi, “the forces are advancing in the field according to plan, and adapting their operational methods to the tasks, the terrain, and the enemy.”
• “We have moved the focus of our efforts to the centre and south of the Strip, where we exposed, including today, weapons manufacturing facilities above and below ground, including missiles intended for the Israeli home front, a real military industry. Destroying these is very important to prevent future strengthening, and it is important to understand, without manoeuvring in the field, it would not have been possible to do this. The forces are thoroughly and methodically dismantling infrastructure, and at the same time, the forces continue to eliminate terrorists from the air, sea, and in brave face-to-face combat on the ground in a very complex area.”
• The IDF also announced that it has destroyed 700 rocket launchers since the operation begun, as well as seizing and destroying hundreds of rockets.
• Nevertheless, Hamas is still able to launch rockets, including six M75 rockets launched yesterday towards Ashdod. One was intercepted, whilst the other five landed in open areas.
• Marking 100 days since the October 7 massacre, the IDF released a range of statistics:
  • In Gaza, of the 23,000 fatalities, over 9,000 are combatants from Hamas and other terror organisations.
  • In terms of the Hamas military leadership, two of their five brigade commanders have been killed, as well as 19 Hamas battalion commanders and over 50 company commanders. These killings disrupt Hamas’s command and control.
  • In addition, around 2,300 suspected combatants have been arrested.
• The IDF also revealed the extend of humanitarian aid that has entered into Gaza Strip. This includes around 137,920 tons of aid:
  • 3,950 trucks, carrying 82,330 tons of food.
  • 1,151 trucks carrying 16,630 tons of tents and shelter equipment.
  • 1,007 trucks carrying 11,510 tons of medical equipment.
  • 863 trucks carrying 17,320 tons of water as well two pipelines delivering water from Israel into Gaza.

Looking ahead: The fate of the hostages held in Gaza looms large over Israeli society.

• In particular, the remaining female hostages who, according to testimony from released hostages, have suffered sexual assaults and some of whom may have become pregnant as a result of being raped in captivity.
• Israeli law allows a standard medical committee to authorise an abortion up to the 24th week of pregnancy. Beyond this, a special committee of senior doctors can authorise an abortion. In the hope that hostages will be released, a special committee will been formed to deal with this scenario.
• Separately, on Sunday Hamas released their latest propaganda video showing three hostages: Noa Argamani, 26, Yossi Sharabi, 53, and Itay Svirsky, 38, identifying themselves and asking the Israeli government to bring them home. The short clip ended with the text: “Tomorrow we will inform you of their fate.

What’s happening: South Africa presented their case to the International Court of Justice on Thursday, accusing Israel of committing genocide against the Palestinians in Gaza.

• Their claim appeared to be based partly on bellicose rhetoric, including from extremist, peripheral members of the Israeli government that the South African lawyers argued are key figures in determining Israeli policy.
• Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s spokesman condemned South Africa’s initiative as “completely unjustified and wrong….legal action does not serve the cause of peace. The UK government stands by Israel’s clear right to defend itself within the framework of international law.”
• Similarly, the US has said there were no grounds to accuse Israel of committing genocide in Gaza. US State Department spokesman Matt Miller said that “allegations that Israel is committing genocide are unfounded. In fact, it is those who are violently attacking Israel who continue to openly call for the annihilation of Israel and the mass murder of Jews… Genocide is one of the most heinous acts any entity or individual can commit, and such allegations should only be made with the greatest of care. Israel has the right to defend itself against Hamas’ terrorist acts — acts that Hamas has vowed to repeat again and again until Israel is completely destroyed. Israel is operating in an exceptionally challenging environment in Gaza, an urban battlespace where Hamas intentionally embeds itself with and hides behind civilians.”
• This morning Israel will make the case for the defence.
  • They will explain that Israel is a fighting a defensive war, after Hamas initiated their brutal massacre on October 7.
  • Since then Israel has conducted their military campaign in line with international law.
  • IDF’s air strikes in the Gaza Strip are based on accurate intelligence information targeting legitimate military targets.
  • Israel operates a policy of distinction and avoids harming Gazan civilians as much as possible.
  • As part of the campaign, Israel made significant efforts to encourage civilians to leave the war zone, so as not to be caught in the fighting.
  • The defence will also emphasise that Israel allows supplies of water, food, and medicine into the Gaza Strip based on the capacity of the border crossings.
• Israel’s Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Lior Haiat described the hearing as “one of the greatest shows of hypocrisy in history, compounded by a series of false and baseless claims.”

Context: The charge of genocide is offensive and inaccurate. Israel perceives this as a political trial with South Africa serving as a proxy for Hamas.

• In a bitter irony, it was Hamas who acted with clear intent to commit genocide on October 7, had they not been stopped by the IDF.
• Inside Gaza, they continue to use their civilian population as human shields and operate military infrastructure from within hospitals, schools, UN shelters, mosques and churches.
• Almost 100 days since the war began, 136 hostages remain in Hamas captivity, denied access to Red Cross representatives and medical care.
• According to Hamas, over 23,000 Palestinians have been killed. Whilst Israel regrets innocent deaths, the death toll alone as part of an intense and complex war does not equate to genocide. Furthermore, Israel’s current assessment is that out of these fatalities at least 8,000 were combatants.
• The ICJ was set up after the Holocaust. Genocide is defined in Article II of the Genocide Convention of 1948 as committing various acts with intent to destroy a national, ethnic, racial or religious group, in whole or in part. The Israeli government has repeatedly stated that its objective is to destroy Hamas.
• The ICJ is the United Nation’s highest court, its rulings are theoretically legally binding, but not enforceable.
• Unlike the International Criminal Court (ICC), the ICJ cannot prosecute individuals for genocide, but its opinions could influence foreign governments policy and international institutions.
• The panel of judges selected by the UN General Assembly includes judges from France, Germany, Australia, India, Slovakia, Jamaica, Japan, Brazil, Russia, China, Morocco, Somalia, Lebanon and Uganda.
• As part of the protocol, both South Africa and Israel also have a representative on the panel of judges. Israel sent former Supreme Court president Aharon Barak.
• Barak, a child survivor of the Holocaust, escaped the Kovno ghetto in a sack of hay, before becoming a world renowned jurist. In Israel there is hope that his influence among the other judges during the consultation process will limit the damage.
• Jeremy Corbyn, the former leader of the Labour party was in the Hague yesterday, supporting the South African and Palestinian case.
• Although the South African claims appear unfounded, Israel faces internal criticism over the government’s message discipline, with the prime minister accused of not having reigned in extremist ministers and for failure to articulate a diplomatic vision for Gaza.

Looking ahead: In the first instance South Africa is appealing for the court to issues an injunction demanding the end of the war.

• The court could declare a whole range of options:
  • It could absolve Israel of guilt.
  • It could also side with South Africa and issue an immediate call to end the war.
  • It could also include recommendation for range of actions.
  • A call to expand humanitarian aid, (Israel already appears open to this).
  • Insisting Gazans should be allowed return to their homes in north Gaza. Israel has so far conditioned their return on the release of hostages.
  • Support for more international organisations to enter Gaza

ICJ: The International Court of Justice (ICJ) in The Hague will today hear arguments alleging that Israel has violated the Genocide Convention, to which it is a signatory.

• The hearings are a result of an urgent appeal, lodged by South Africa, designed to have the court force Israel to “immediately suspend” its military operations in Gaza.
• The hearings will focus on the request to issue a provisional order against Israel, while Israel’s arguments will be heard tomorrow.
• South Africa’s application alleges that Israel has violated several articles of the Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide during the war, including committing genocide, incitement to genocide, attempted genocide, and failure to punish incitement to genocide.
• The president of the court is Judge Joan Donoghue from the United States. Other judges are from France, Germany, Australia, India, Slovakia, Jamaica, Japan, Brazil, Russia, China, Morocco, Somalia, Lebanon and Uganda.
• Both South Africa and Israel have sent judges who were nominated as ad hoc members of the panel. Israel’s judge will be former Supreme Court president Aharon Barak. Israel’s principle legal representative in the court will be British attorney Malcom Shaw.
• Isaac Herzog yesterday dismissed the case as “atrocious” and “preposterous.” Visiting US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in Tel Aviv on Tuesday that the charge of genocide brought by South Africa in the ICJ is “meritless,” and called it “particularly galling” because “Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis and their supporter Iran continue to openly call for the annihilation of Israel and the mass murder of Jews.”
• US State Department spokesman Matt Miller also said in a statement that “allegations that Israel is committing genocide are unfounded. In fact, it is those who are violently attacking Israel who continue to openly call for the annihilation of Israel and the mass murder of Jews… Genocide is one of the most heinous acts any entity or individual can commit, and such allegations should only be made with the greatest of care. Israel has the right to defend itself against Hamas’ terrorist acts — acts that Hamas has vowed to repeat again and again until Israel is completely destroyed. Israel is operating in an exceptionally challenging environment in Gaza, an urban battlespace where Hamas intentionally embeds itself with and hides behind civilians.”

Hostages: After a delegation of the hostages’ families returned from Qatar, a new Qatari proposal for a deal was put to Israel which the war cabinet discussed.

• Mossad Director David Barnea, who recently spoke with the Qatari prime minister, shared that information with the security cabinet. The deal reportedly calls for the release of all the hostages in a number of stages, in exchange for the IDF’s complete withdrawal from the Gaza Strip and the exile of the Hamas leaders.
• Israeli officials told Kan Radio that it was their understanding that the Qatari proposal, had not been coordinated with the Hamas leadership.
• Hamas leader Ismail Haniya in Qatar said that Israel will never get its hostages back unless it releases all the prisoners who are in jail, which also appears to be Yahya Sinwar’s position.
• President Joe Biden sent his envoy Brett McGurk, who played a major role in reaching the last hostage deal, to Qatar.
• Minister Benny Gantz said yesterday: “The most urgent thing is the hostages’ return. That has priority over any course of action in the fighting. If there are any hostages who are watching us now, it is important that you know—we are doing everything for you to return to your loved ones, who have never stopped fighting for you. There is no channel that they are not working on, there is no path that they haven’t trod for this to happen. Be strong.”
• IDF Spokesperson Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari said the army had located a tunnel in Khan Yunis in which hostages had been held. “The troops located a tunnel in which hostages were held in harsh difficult conditions below ground. We brought international correspondents into them today for them to reveal to the world the crimes that Hamas commits against humanity. The hostages are the supreme effort. In the past too, there were quite a few operations that we did not report [to rescue them]. There were also operations that we stopped.”

Jerusalem/West Bank: The police and Shin Bet announced that they had arrested two individuals suspected of belonging to ISIS and of planning to carry out an attack against security forces. The two were allegedly planning to make explosive devices, inspired by videos published by the Islamic State which they watched online. The suspects, aged 21 and 23, are residents of Jabel Mukaber in East Jerusalem. The police said they found paedophilia material on one of the individual’s mobile phones, initiating an investigation into the matter.

Context: The South African case rests on the large number of Palestinian deaths in Gaza, its allegations that food, water, and medical care available to the Gazan population has been restricted, and statements by Israeli government ministers about Palestinians in Gaza it alleges amount to incitement to genocide.

• Israeli Justice Ministry officials believe there is a real chance the ICJ will agree to South Africa’s demands and will issue some kind of injunction against Israel.
• At the same time, it is not expected to call for a cease-fire in the Gaza Strip,
• The court can also instruct Israel to allow humanitarian aid in the Strip, to establish an independent inquiry, or to allow displaced Palestinians to return to northern Gaza.
• Such provisional instructions do not rely on the court concluding that the case brought has been proven, only that it is plausible. The bar to establish plausibility of genocidal actions is much lower than a final definitive determination.
• Prime Minister Netanyahu, meanwhile, made it clear yesterday that “Israel has no intention of permanently occupying Gaza or displacing its civilian population. Israel is fighting Hamas terrorists, not the Palestinian population. And we’re doing so in full compliance with international law.”
• Senior Israeli officials reiterated yesterday that any proposal to free the hostages that includes a demand to end the war and to withdraw IDF troops as a precondition for negotiations is unacceptable and would not be given positive consideration. Yahya Sinwar does also not appear to be prepared to go into exile.
• The mediators hold their talks with Hamas’s political leadership, which is not based in the Gaza Strip. That leadership is headed by Ismail Haniya, who lives in Qatar. The degree of influence he has over Sinwar is uncertain.
• Hamas’s overseas leadership did not formally respond to the idea of exiling Hamas’s [Gaza] leadership, but did say that Yahya Sinwar and his brother Muhammad and Mohammed Deif and Marwan Issa would “scornfully dismiss the idea of leaving the Gaza Strip.”
• The United States has been exerting massive pressure on Qatar to advance a deal: one channel with Qatar is being run by CIA Director William Burns, whereas Biden personally dispatched his envoy Bret McGurk. An Israeli delegation is also scheduled to leave for Cairo in the next few days to continue the talks.
• Hamas had previously rejected similar proposals and had insisted that any release of Israeli hostages must be met with the release of Palestinian prisoners.

Looking ahead: Initial ICJ rulings are expected in the next few weeks with a final ruling likely to take years.

• Israel is due to approve in the next few days the entry of 400 trucks carrying humanitarian aid into Gaza every day, instead of the 200 that enter today. Reports suggest that a promise was made to US Secretary of State Antony Blinken in meetings in Israel yesterday that this number would increase further.
• Amos Hochstein will meet with officials in Beirut later “in an effort to advance discussions to restore calm” along the border between Lebanon and Israel. A US National Security Council spokesperson said: “The United States has made clear it does not support the ongoing conflict spreading into Lebanon and continues to exhaust all diplomatic options to see Israeli and Lebanese civilians return to their homes and live in security and stability.”

The north: Hezbollah has confirmed that the commander of its Radwan force was killed yesterday morning in a strike attributed to Israel.

• Wissam al-Tawil’s (also known as Jawad) car was attacked in the village of Khirbet Selm, about 15 kilometres from the Israeli border in southern Lebanon.
• Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz said that Israel “took responsibility for the operation, it is part of our war,” while Hezbollah said that al-Tawil had died a “martyr on the path to Jerusalem”.
• Al-Tawil was responsible for the for the ambush in 2000 in which the soldiers Adi Avitan, Benny Avraham and Omar Suwayed were killed and kidnapped, and for the 2006 kidnapping and killing of Israeli soldiers Eldad Regev and Ehud Goldwasser, a precipitating factor in the start of the Second Lebanon War. He was also behind last year’s explosive attack near Megiddo in northern Israel, and planned an invasion of northern border communities.
• The IAF also attacked a military compound, infrastructure and rocket launchers in the northern Lebanese villages of Marwahin and Aita-al Shaab last night.
• Tawil’s killing takes the number of Hezbollah fighters killed since October 7^th to at least 151, while reports this morning suggest that three Hezbollah members have been killed in a targeted strike on their vehicle in the town of Ghandouriyeh.
• Israel announced yesterday that it had also killed Hassan Hakashah, the central figure behind Hamas rocket attacks from Syria in a strike on Beit Jinn.
• “We will not allow terrorism from Syrian territory and hold Syria responsible for all activity emanating from its territory,” the military said.
• Air raid sirens sounded this morning across northern Israel, and rockets were fired into the Ramat Naftali area. Safed residents have been told to remain in safe rooms after an Israeli interceptor was fired at a suspicious target that apparently infiltrated from Lebanon.

Gaza Strip: This morning it was announced that four more IDF soldiers were killed in action yesterday in the Gaza Strip, taking the total to 180 since the start of the ground campaign.  In addition, six more soldiers were hospitalised in serious condition.

• In southern Gaza, the IDF is expanding its operations inside Khan Yunis. According to the IDF Spokesperson’s office over the last day, “approximately 40 terrorists were killed. In addition, significant terror tunnel shafts were located, as well as a variety of weapons, including twelve AK-47 rifles, four loaded RPG launchers, dozens of grenades, cartridges, and military vests.”
• Also in Khan Yunis the IDF exposed another tunnel shaft near a school and found evidence of students training with weapons.  They also found, “explosives, weapons, grenades, communications devices and large quantities of intelligence documents.”
• The IDF added, that during the operations, “several RPG missiles were shot at the forces. The forces engaged in close-quarters combat and eliminated the terrorist cell that carried out the shooting with both tank fire and airstrikes.”
• In central Gaza yesterday troops uncovered, “the largest weapons production site found since the beginning of the war.” According to the IDF, they found:
  • Components for long-range rockets capable of reaching northern Israel.
  • Underground long-range rockets manufacturing facilities.
  • Explosives and mortar shells accuracy enhancers.
  • Tunnel shafts reaching approximately 30 metres underground.
  • Light weapons and UAVs.
• Despite IDF advances, Hamas continue to fire rockets out of Gaza into Israel. 14 rockets were fired towards southern Israel early Monday evening. In total Hamas and other terror organisations have launched over 13,000 rockets and mortars since the war began.

Context: Al-Tawil is thought to have been a close associate of Qasem Soleimani, the former commander of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ Quds Force killed in a US strike in early 2020.

• Al-Tawil’s death comes as Hezbollah has intensified attacks on northern Israel in the wake of last week’s assassination of Hamas official Saleh al-Aruri in Beirut.
• Hezbollah fired more than 60 rockets at the Mount Meron base as an initial response to the killing, causing significant damage to a sensitive strategic air traffic control base.
• Prime Minister Netanyahu met yesterday with soldiers on the northern border, pledging to do anything to “restore security to the north and to let Hezbollah “know that we cannot be messed with.”
• “Hezbollah made a big mistake with us in 2006 and is making a big mistake with us now. They thought we were cobwebs, and suddenly they see we are a spider… We showed the organisation what’s happening to its friends in the south, and that’s what’s going to happen here in the north. We will do everything we can to restore security.”
• Merom Galil Regional Council Chairperson Amit Sofer warned Kan Radio this morning that Israel was not prepared for an escalation in fighting in the northern theatre. “Precious time is being wasted [that could be used] to prepare for the major scenario of missile fire,” he said. “I think we have use this time to prepare. There are huge fortification gaps [shortfalls] here in the area of shelters. We aren’t talking about some huge project. With a few million, we could save lives.”
• The US fears that all-out war between Israel and Hezbollah could trigger a wider regional conflagration, and is determined to see a diplomatic solution which would ensure that Hezbollah personnel and infrastructure are moved sufficiently north of the Litani river to allow for the safe return home of Israel’s evacuated northern residents.
• Both Secretary of State Blinken and Amos Hockstein, the diplomat who brokered the 2022 maritime deal between Israel and Lebanon are working to this effect. The French have also been involved in trying to prevail on the Lebanese government to act to move Hezbollah north beyond the Litani.
• Israeli officials are increasingly pessimistic about the chances of success of these diplomatic moves, and fear that only a military solution can restore security to the northern envelope.
• The conventional wisdom was that Hezbollah, too, wished to avoid all-out war, and that its Iranian patron was holding the organisation’s extensive 150,000 missile and rockets arsenal back for use should Israel mount an attack on Tehran’s nuclear programme.
• US Secretary of State Blinken arrived in Israel last night, for his fifth visit since the war began.
• For the US benefit and in an effort to maintain international legitimacy, Israel declared that it was transitioning to the third stage of its war in the Gaza Strip.
• The third stage currently seems to apply to the northern part of the Gaza, where the IDF is reducing its heavy concentration of troops. This next stage is expected to feature pinpoint raids and strikes on Hamas targets that would be carried out from Israeli territory.
• There is criticism in Israel that the announcement of the transition to the third phase appeared first in English, in the US media and not to the Israeli public.
• Secretary Blinken is expected to press Israel to allow Gazans from the north to return to their homes, however Israel is looking to condition their return for progress in the release of the remaining hostages.
• These events are being interpreted in Israel as the coming to fruition of the conflicting timetable which have been identified for some time: between Israeli military estimates of a total defeat of Hamas which might be very bloody and take many months, and of US expectations for a much swifter end to intense fighting in Gaza.
• The IDF remains convinced that strong military pressure on the southern Gazan city of Khan Yunis remains crucial to the release of more Israeli hostages held by Hamas.

Looking ahead: The IDF has still not conducted any ground operations along the Egyptian border.  The vast amount of weapons that Hamas has attests to the scale of the ability to smuggle in weapons though this route and makes it a key issue to end the war and ensure Hamas cannot rearm.

• Families of the hostages are planning to protest at Kerem Shalom, the entry point of humanitarian aid into Gaza.
• In parallel, Arabic media sources are reporting an Israeli delegation is in Cairo for indirect talks to renew negotiations for the release of hostages.

The High Court of Justice: On Monday evening the court announced its ruling on petitions challenging the amendment to Basic Law: The Judiciary that was passed into law in July. The court ruled in an 8:7 majority vote to strike down the amendment in its entirety.

• Twelve of the fifteen justices ruled that the Supreme Court possesses the authority to exercise judicial review of Israel’s basic laws, and to intervene in exceptional and extreme cases in which the Knesset has exceeded its authority as the branch of government empowered to legislate the provisions of the constitution through the passage of basic laws.
• Former Supreme Court President Esther Hayut who is about to retire wrote: “In my view, it is not possible to square the amendment to the Basic Law on the Judiciary and the principle of the separation of powers and the principle of the rule of law, which are two of the most important characteristics of our democratic system. Such a violation at the very heart of our founding narrative cannot stand.”
• Justice Isaac Amit wrote that “the State of Israel is in need of additional engines to strengthen democratic government. But the amendment to the basic law that eliminated reasonableness grounds with respect to anything related to decisions of the cabinet and its ministers moves in the opposite direction and further strengthens the power of the executive branch.”
• Justices Noam Sohlberg and David Mintz dissented from the majority on the issue of the court’s jurisdiction to exercise judicial review of basic laws and of the court’s jurisdiction to rule on the issue. They argued that there is no source of authority under Israeli law for such judicial review. They added that even if such authority exists, the court should not have overturned the reasonableness amendment to the basic law because the case does not meet the criteria that the majority laid down for disqualification of a basic law.
• The ruling was criticised by the government. Justice Minister Yariv Levin said “The judges’ decision to publish the decision during a war is the opposite of the spirit of unity needed at this time for the success of our fighters on the front.” He described the ruling as creating a “situation in which it is even impossible for the Knesset and the government to legislate basic laws or to make decisions without the judges’ approval.” The Likud party said that the Supreme Court’s decision “opposes the will of the people for unity, especially during wartime.”
• Leader of  the Opposition Lapid praised the ruling. “The Supreme Court fulfilled its duty today in safeguarding Israeli citizens, and we give it full backing.” Minister Gantz called for broad agreement. “After the war, we will have to formalise the relationship between the powers and legislate a Basic Law: Legislation that will anchor the standing of basic laws. We will do that with broad agreement, with open discussion, thoroughly and with stateliness while maintaining respect between all citizens of Israel.”

Context: The Knesset’s decision to cancel the ‘reasonability standard’ in July was the first of the government’s planned judicial reforms to actually be passed into law.

• The amendment to Basic Law: The Judiciary sought to cancel the court’s ability to use reasonability as grounds for striking down government decisions and appointments.
• The government argued that the court possessed no legal or constitutional basis to review Basic Laws, seeing as they have quasi-constitutional status. During the hearing, the Likud  party stated that “The Knesset receives its authority from the people. The government receives its authority from the Knesset. The court receives its authority from the Basic Laws enacted by the Knesset.”
• Opponents argued that Israel’s democratic culture is unique – the country possesses no second chamber, nor a written constitution, and the list system (which concentrates power over MKs to party leaders, as opposed to their being parliamentarians answerable to their constituency) ensures that the executive is generally able to exercise de facto control over a majority of the Knesset.
• In this context, the existing system provides a vital separation of powers and an independent judiciary – with partial capacity for overruling the legislature and executive – provides a crucial brake on executive power and functions as an essential guarantor of liberal democratic norms and minority rights.
• There is currently no distinction between the way the Knesset passes a Basic Law and a regular law (both require only a basic majority), leaving the special status of Basic Laws open to different interpretations and legal ambiguity.
• Following the court’s announcement, the IDF Spokesperson Brig. Gen. Hagari was asked how Israel’s internal divisions could have influenced Hamas’s decision to launch its attack on October 7. Hagari said, “things will be clarified in the in-depth inquiry,” he added. “presumably the feature of a rift, the military’s readiness, maybe in its perception that is one of the features that is linked to this.”
• He added that contrary to Hamas’s assumptions, the IDF was now fighting with full unity in its ranks, which he said reflected the strength of Israeli society.

Gaza Strip: The IDF continues its operations against Hamas military targets in the south, centre and north of the Gaza Strip.

• On Monday the IDF announced another reservist killed in action, by an explosive device in the northern Gaza Strip. Another 11 soldiers were wounded in the incident, two of whom are hospitalised in serious condition.
• The IDF also revealed that 29 of the 170 soldiers killed in the ground operation, were killed either in accidents or as a result of friendly fire. Eighteen were killed by friendly fire as a result of misidentification; two were killed by friendly fire in incidents in which troops fired in excess of restrictions; and nine were killed in other accidents.
• On Sunday the IDF confirmed that another Hamas Nukhba commander was killed in an airstrike.  Adel Mesmah was the commander of the forces that targeted Kibbutz Kissufim on October 7. He also sent terrorists into other kibbutzim, including Beeri and Nirim. He then went on to command Hamas forces inside the Gaza Strip until his death.
• Also in northern Gaza, the IDF located and destroyed the tunnels of Hamas’ general headquarters. According to the IDF Spokesperson, “in the tunnels was an electricity network, ventilation and sewage infrastructure, prayer rooms and resting rooms.” The tunnel was connected to an apartment used by Hamas leader Sinwar. The IDF added they, “discovered that a strategic tunnel shaft was located on the basement floor… apparently used by the senior officials of Hamas’ Military and Political Wing. The apartment is part of a long and branching tunnel network…The tunnel was built so that it would be possible to stay inside it and conduct combat from it for long periods of time.” Footage of the tunnel can be seen here.
• Despite the continued fighting, the IDF has begun to reduce the number of troops deployed inside the Strip. Two reservist brigades have been discharged, and three standing army brigades have been sent back into training.
• In parallel, Hamas continue to fire rockets into Israel. At midnight, as 2024 began they fired at least 20 rockets towards central Israel, at least 10 were intercepted.
• The head of Southern Command Maj. Gen. Yaron Finkelman met with the troops in central Gaza, and said, “The combat will continue in a range of methods, a range of intensities and shifting forms.”

Northern border: Hezbollah continues its attacks on military and civilian targets close the northern border.

• In response the IDF have continued to target the cells that launch the attacks as well as Hezbollah infrastructure.
• In one incident five soldiers sustained light injuries after coming under fire from Lebanon.
• Hezbollah announced that another fighter was killed last night, taking their total to 138.
• In addition, five rockets were fired into Israeli yesterday from Syria, they all landed in open areas on the Golan.
• Syrian sources accused the IDF of attacking targets in Syria in retaliation. According to Syrian media, the IDF attacked a number of targets in the suburbs of Damascus early this morning.
• Israel has not officially commented, but this is thought to be the sixth attack inside Syria, ascribed to Israel in the past week.

Looking ahead: Israeli media report that the IDF has drafted a plan to empower local clans in Gaza to  distribute humanitarian aid. The plan, which will be presented today to the security cabinet, would divide Gaza into regions and sub-regions, each one of which is to be governed by a clan. In addition to distributing humanitarian aid entering from Egypt and from Israel, the clans will be tasked with overseeing civilian affairs in Gaza for an interim period.

• Prime Minister Netanyahu told the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defence Committee that if the Palestinian Authority wants to participate in governing the Gaza Strip on the day after, it must undergo fundamental change and to prove it has done so in the way it governs in the West Bank.
• Minister of Defence Gallant has suggested the displaced communities, within a range of four to seven km north of the Gaza strip, will soon be able to return home.
• In an unprecedented move, Israel intends to send a representative to the International Court of Justice at The Hague and to demand that the court dismiss the motion that was filed by South Africa asking the court to issue an interim injunction instructing Israel to desist from all military action in the Gaza Strip.
• National Security Council Director Tzahi Hanegbi told Yediot Ahronot, “The State of Israel has been a signatory of the Genocide Convention for the past six decades, and we certainly won’t boycott the hearing. We will be there and will repel the absurd suit, which constitutes a blood libel. The Jewish people has experienced on its own flesh more than any other nation what genocide is. Six million of our people were slaughtered with boundless brutality. Similar brutality was used against the citizens of Israel in the October 7 massacre, but this time we have the ability to defend ourselves against those who rise up to annihilate us. The absurd suit against  the victim’s right to self-defence is a disgrace, and our expectation from all civilized countries is to show solidarity with that assertion.