Photo credit: IDF Spokesperson’s Office

What’s happened: On Monday, Israel suffered its heaviest loses since the beginning of the ground offensive.

• The IDF Spokesperson’s Office announced this morning that 21 IDF reservists were killed in an incident inside the Gaza Strip yesterday.
• According to initial reports, the IDF soldiers were in the process of destroying buildings using mines, together with engineering troops. Two rocket-propelled grenades were fired, the first towards a tank, as a result of which two soldiers were killed. The second RPG was fired at one of the buildings that already had explosives inside. These then detonated, leading to the buildings collapsing.
• Through the night, rescue teams operated to extract injured soldiers and retrieve the bodies. In addition to the fatalities, seven soldiers were injured and transferred to hospital, two in serious condition, two moderate, and three light.
• The incident took place just 600 metres from the border fence on the Gaza side. The buildings designated for demolition were part of the plan to create a buffer zone and restore a sense of security for when Israelis can return to their homes so close to the fence.
• In a separate incident, three IDF officers were also killed yesterday in an intense fire fight between IDF troops and Hamas gunmen in Khan Yunis. Three more soldiers were seriously wounded.

Humanitarian Aid: Sunday saw a record high 260 humanitarian aid trucks enter the Gaza Strip, the most on any single day since the outset of the war. An additional 213 trucks went in yesterday.

• According to data provided by the Coordinator of Government Activities in the Territories Office, 9,923 aid trucks have entered the Gaza Strip so far in the war, delivering 182,670 tonnes of humanitarian aid. The total includes:
  • 5,586 trucks transporting 117,350 tonnes of food.
  • 1,440 trucks transporting 20,780 tonnes of shelter.
  • 1,143 trucks transporting 13,550 tonnes of medical supplies.
  • 947 trucks transporting 19,020 tonnes of water.
  • 807 trucks transporting 11,970 tonnes of other aid.

• Nonetheless, Yediot Ahronot suggests that “most of the humanitarian aid being delivered to the Gaza Strip isn’t reaching its intended recipients and has done little to help the civilian population,” with “Hamas officials who control the aid coming into Gaza… unmoved by the sight of hungry and cold children.”

Context: In total, 221 IDF soldiers have been killed since the beginning of the ground operation inside Gaza and a total of 555 IDF soldiers have been killed since Hamas launched its attack on October 7th.

• These announcements follow strict protocols. As with all fatalities, the immediate family members are notified before the deaths are made public. In addition, the immediate family notifies the wider family before the names are released to the media.
• Reports claim that Israel has presented a new potential hostage deal to Egyptian and Qatari mediators.
• The proposed deal would see Israel agree to pause fighting in the Gaza Strip for two months and to the release of a large number of Palestinian prisoners – including those sentenced for serious crimes – in exchange for the release of all of the hostages and the bodies of dead Israelis held in Gaza, with releases occurring in several stages.
• The first stage would see the release of the remaining women hostages, alongside men over 60 and those in poor health. Female soldiers, male soldiers, and those hostages serving in civilian security squads would be released in later stages, as would the bodies of those who have died.
• In total over 250 people were kidnapped on October 7th. 121 have so far been extricated, while 136 remain in captivity. Of those, it is estimated at least 27 are no longer alive.
• Alongside the hostage releases, Israel would agree to a fighting pause which would see an IDF redeployment in Gaza, away from major population centres, and the monitored return to their homes of displaced residents of Gaza City and the northern Gaza Strip.
• Meeting yesterday with hostages’ families, Prime Minister Netanyahu confirmed that Israel had presented a deal and was awaiting Hamas’s response.
• Netanyahu hinted that, in the meantime, the intensity of Israeli operations in Gaza would remain high, since his view is that the greater the military pressure on Hamas, the more likely it us that Hamas will accept the Israeli proposal.
• Netanyahu also claimed that no military operation to free the remaining hostages was currently on the table, and that, contrary to reports, there was uniformity of opinion on the hostage question within the war cabinet.
• Reports have recently claimed that Minister Gadi Eisenkot – who entered the War Cabinet alongside Minister Gantz – has advocated a greater priority placed on releasing hostages, even if it comes at the cost of limiting combat.
• Elsewhere, a small group of hostages’ relatives burst into a meeting being held by the Knesset Finance Committee yesterday.
• They held up placards addressed to MKs reading “You won’t sit here while they’re dying there,” and “You brought down a government over hametz, but not over this?” (The latter is a reference to the collapse of the Bennett-Lapid government in 2022.)
• Last night, around 200 people, including released hostages and their families, demonstrated near the Prime Minister’s Residence on Azza Street in Jerusalem, some spending the whole night there.

Looking ahead: In the latest US diplomatic efforts, US National Security Council Coordinator for the Middle East and North Africa Brett McGurk is in Cairo to advance a hostage deal. He is expected to proceed to Qatar.

• President Biden supports a temporary pause in fighting to secure a hostage release and the delivery of more humanitarian aid to Gaza.
• Israel’s war cabinet is expected to convene on Thursday to discuss this issue, with a delay caused by last night’s disaster in Gaza.

What’s happened: The IDF continue to operate deep in Khan Yunis, and have made advances in the south and west of the city.

• Defence Minister Gallant met with the families of hostages on Sunday and told them that as they advance in Khan Yunis, there are initial signs that reaching Hamas’s most sensitive areas is moving Israel closer to accomplishing the two supreme missions of the war.
• On Sunday, the IDF released footage of a tunnel where hostages had been held underneath Khan Yunis.
• In parallel, family members of the hostages set up a tent encampment outside the prime minister’s private home in Jerusalem. Gabriela Leimberg, who spent 53 days in captivity to Hamas, told the gathering, “Mr. Prime Minister, every day in captivity is hell. The soldiers and the hostages were abandoned on your watch. They are out of time. I ask you, rescue them and bring back all the bodies.”
• On Sunday Prime Minister Netanyahu said, “We are continuing the war on all fronts and in all sectors. We are not giving immunity to any terrorist: Not in Gaza, not in Lebanon, not in Syria and not anywhere. Whoever tries to harm us, we will harm him.”
• “Regarding our hostages, we have returned home – as of today – 110 of our hostages and we are obligated to returning all of them. This is one of the goals of the war and the military pressure is a necessary condition to achieving it.”
• “Hamas is demanding, in exchange for the release of our hostages, the end of the war, the withdrawal of our forces from Gaza, the release of the murders and rapists of the Nukhba and leaving Hamas in place. Were we to agree to this – our soldiers would have fallen in vain. Were we to agree to this – we would not be able to ensure the security of our citizens. We would be unable to safely restore the evacuees to their homes and the next October 7 would be only a question of time. I am not prepared to accept such a mortal blow to the security of Israel; therefore, we will not agree to this.”

Context: The Israeli government continues to insist that military pressure is the best way to secure the release of more hostages, but faces increased pressure from the family of the hostages, from the US, and from the political opposition.

• The tents erected in Jerusalem are the latest efforts to ratchet up the pressure by the families of the hostages. After over 100 days the campaign is evolving. Over the weekend around 2,000 people protested outside the prime minister’s home in Caesaria.
• On Thursday evening, seven protestors were detained after they blocked the main Tel Aviv highway – a tactic used by those campaigning against judicial reform last year.
• Netanyahu and his government are also facing growing pressure from the US to present a diplomatic vision for the ‘day after’.
• After three weeks of not speaking directly, Netanyahu said that he told President Biden over the weekend, “after we eliminate Hamas, there will no entity in Gaza that finances terrorism, educates for terrorism or sends terrorists. Gaza must be demilitarised, under Israel’s full security control. I will not compromise on full Israeli security control of all territory west of the Jordan River.”
• Netanyahu also declared, “My insistence is what has prevented, over the years, the establishment of a Palestinian state that would have constituted an existential danger to Israel. As long as I am Prime Minister, I will continue to strongly insist on this.”
• In the past, going back to his Bar Ilan speech in 2009, through to the Trump Peace Plan Netanyahu has cautiously accepted the principle of a demilitarised Palestinian State. Articulating such an acceptance now is harder due to the constraints of his hard right coalition partners.
• Behind the scenes, it is thought that Israel could be prepared to make a deal that entails a diplomatic arrangement and the release of terrorists from prison, but not members of Hamas’s elite Nukhba force, members of which committed the October 7 massacre.
• Despite international pressure, the IDF is not yet expected to withdraw from the Gaza Strip and will not let residents return to the northern Gaza Strip as long as the hostages are not returned.
• Only then can reconstruction efforts begin, Israel says, led by the pro-stability Arab states.
• Netanyahu’s reference to Lebanon and Syria comes as further attacks have been reported. According to Arab media sources, over the weekend five Iranian military officials from the IRGC  were killed in Damascus, alongside six Syrians. One of the Iranians, nicknamed Haji Sadek, had served as senior intelligence officer and in the past had been involved in targeting US assets in Syria.
• In addition, Lebanese sources reported a strike on a car near Tyre. The targets were also thought to be connected to the IRGC.
• Meanwhile, attacks from Lebanon into northern Israel have also continued, including an anti-tank missile that struck an empty home in Moshav Avivim, causing significant damage.
• To date, approximately 80,000 Israelis from northern communities are internally displaced due to Hezbollah’s rocket, mortar, drone, and anti-tank missile attacks from Lebanon since 7^th October. These attacks have killed six civilians and nine soldiers.
• Similarly, the IDF have continued to attack Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon, taking their overall casualties to 165 combatants.
• Meanwhile, the Israeli government acquiesced to another US demand and approved releasing tax funds to the Palestinian Authority (PA).
• However the security cabinet approved measures to ensure none of the money would reach Gaza. Instead, a new mechanism would see the money assigned to Gaza deposited in trust with a third country, Norway.  Both the US and Norway have committed not to pass it onto Gaza, nor via a loan. If the clause is broken, Finance Minister Smotrich has insisted that all money to the PA will be frozen.
• The Shin Bet and Defence Ministry supported the release of the funds in order to maintain stability in the West Bank and ensure the PA can survive.
• Despite last week’s agreement to allow medicine into Gaza, there is still no indication that the medicine reached the hostages.
• At Israel’s request, at least 45 hostages who suffer from chronic diseases were supposed to receive various medicines, including insulin, asthma inhalers, medicine for high blood pressure and heart conditions. The French Foreign Ministry who facilitated the deal said yesterday that it had no information about where the medicines were, aside from the fact that they are in Gaza.
• For the first time since the war began, the Labour Party will present a vote of no-confidence in the Knesset. Whilst it does not currently have the support even from all members of the opposition, it is a declaratory move indicating that, from the Labour Party’s perspective, the period of political grace is over.

Looking ahead: Mounting pressure from the US, Egypt and Qatar could result in a return to negotiations for a hostage release deal. However, it is difficult to see Israel accepting Hamas’s terms.

• According to the New York Times the US, the UK, and European officials are pressuring Israel to send humanitarian aid to Gaza via Israeli ports in order to alleviate the humanitarian crisis.

Gaza: The IDF announced it had destroyed a strategic tunnel used for terrorist activity that connected between the north and south of the Gaza Strip.

• The tunnel was reportedly hundreds of metres long, 90 metres deep, and had close to 5,700 shafts. It was used by Hamas for getting across the Strip.
• The IDF said Hamas used over 6,000 tonnes of concrete and 1,800 tonnes of steel for its extensive tunnel network and had invested tens of millions of dollars in the project.
• Elsewhere, a heavy barrage of rockets from Gaza included a hit on a civilian store in Netivot. The rockets were fired from an area in Gaza that the IDF had recently left.
• Meanwhile, a delegation of Israeli security officials arrived in Cairo for meetings with senior Egyptian officials.
• According to a statement issued by the Prime Minister’s Bureau (following a formal Qatari statement on the issue) hostages will begin to receive medication today.
• The medication for the hostages, as well as humanitarian aid that Israel agreed could be supplied to the Gaza Strip in exchange for said medication, will be delivered by two Qatari air force planes to El-Arish, and from there to the Gaza Strip.
• The Shin Bet said that an Islamic Jihad commander, Bassel Mahdi, who was captured in Gaza, told of how members of his organisation were trained in Iran.
• Two reservists were killed in fighting in northern Gaza, bringing the total death toll since the ground incursion to 192.

West Bank: A joint statement by the IDF and the Shin Bet announced three members of a terror cell were killed in Nablus by drone strike. The individuals who were killed were responsible for one of the main terror cells in the West Bank.

• Abdallah Abu Shalal and his squad were responsible for a number of attacks in the past year, including the shooting attack in the Shimon HaTzadik neighbourhood of Jerusalem last April, where two Israeli civilians were injured.

The north: The IDF struck Hezbollah targets in Lebanon, on the Suluki valley more than 20 kilometres from the Israeli border. The IDF reported that it used Air Force and artillery, targeting dozens of Hezbollah “positions, military instillations and weapons production infrastructure.”

• Lebanese security sources told Reuters there were at least 16 airstrikes in quick succession on the Valley, describing them as the “densest bombardment of a single location” since hostilities began.
• The Lebanese daily Al-Akhbar reported that President Biden’s envoy, Amos Hochstein, proposed that Hezbollah be pushed back seven kilometres from the border with Israel and the Lebanese army be stationed in southern Lebanon. According to the report, Hochstein said that “there is no need for a withdrawal to the north of the Litani River.”

Red Sea: The Houthis targeted with naval missiles the Malta-flagged, Greek-owned carrier Zografia ship near the Yemeni port of Saleef. This resulted in a “direct hit,” according to the group. The ship, that was heading to Israel, sustained material damage but no injuries.

• US Central Command conducted a strike in Yemen that destroyed four Houthi anti-ship ballistic missiles, in response for Houthi attacks on international shipping lanes in the Red Sea.

Davos: Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan told a panel at the World Economic Forum in Davos that the Kingdom could normalise relations with Israel if a comprehensive deal were reached including Palestinian statehood. “We agree that regional peace includes peace for Israel, but that could only happen through peace for the Palestinians through a Palestinian state.”

• Also at Davos, US Secretary of State Blinken said Arab countries claim that they do not “want to get into the business of rebuilding Gaza only to have it levelled again.”
• US National Security Adviser Sullivan also spoke at Davos and explained the US’s strategy prior to October 7: “our approach was and remains focused on moving toward greater integration and stability in the region,” he said. “Long before October 7, the US was deeply engaged in an effort to secure a political horizon for the Palestinian people – with Israel’s security guaranteed as part of that.”
• “We judged that direct negotiations between Israelis and Palestinians, which had fallen short so many times before, it was unlikely to succeed. We determined the best approach was to work toward a package deal that involved normalization between Israel and key Arab states, together with meaningful progress and a political horizon for the Palestinian people.”
• “That was our goal before October 7, and it was our progress toward that goal that Hamas sought to destroy,” he said. He went on to say: “That is the reality Israel is contending with – a determined terrorist threat that chose as its battlefield the communities of innocent civilians, and still to this day holds more than 100 hostages in circumstances that are dire and deteriorating.”

Context: Divisions continue within the Israeli cabinet. Minister Gantz, who joined the Netanyahu coalition after October 7 in order to help prosecute the war, recently submitted a list of demands to Prime Minister Netanyahu and the National Security Council regarding seven issues that are critical for the ongoing war which need to be discussed and decisions made on them:

• These include:
  • Reiterating the government’s war goals, especially as they pertain to the hostages.
  • The future of Philadelphi Road, which runs along the length of the Gaza-Egypt border, and the mechanism to prevent future smuggling operations.
  • The mechanism for distributing humanitarian aid and administering civilian life in Gaza, either by means of an international mechanism or some other mechanism.
  • The timetable and conditions to allow the residents of the Gaza periphery and the northern communities to return to their communities.
  • A deadline for the diplomatic efforts to reach an arrangement for the northern border which pushes Hezbollah and its elite Radwan force away from the border.
• Some of the above issues have not been discussed at all whereas others have only been discussed superficially. At all events, no decisions have been made on any of them.
• Gantz and his political ally Eisenkot also endorsed the warnings that were issued by IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Halevi and Defense Minister Gallant, who said that the achievements that have been made in the war would be eroded unless complementary political decisions were made.
• The US continues to try and exert pressure on Israel to strengthen the Palestinian Authority (PA). Officials recently told Israel that they expect to see the transfer of funds owed to the PA, as well as the entry of Palestinian labourers into Israel. Strong opposition exists within some elements of the cabinet to both of these steps (for more details on the debate over Palestinian labourers see Tuesday’s BICOM brief).
• The fact that rockets have emanated from areas the IDF has recently left has led to debate about whether it needs to return (see Israeli Media Summary below).
• Hochstein’s alleged suggestion that Hezbollah move north, but not beyond the Litani river, is a moderation of the demands of UN Resolution 1701, with which Hezbollah has continually refused to comply, and which calls for their withdrawal north of the river.
• Hochstein’s mediation is part of wider US efforts to dampen tensions between Israel and Hezbollah on the norther border and prevent an escalation Washington fears could spread to a regional war.

Northern border: Attacks have continued from Lebanon towards northern Israel.

• Several anti-tank missiles were launched toward the areas of Zar’it, Shomera, and Kfar Yuval.
• In Kfar Yuval, the missile hit a house, killing 76-year-old Mira Ayalon and her son, 45-year-old Barak. The father, Eliyahu was also injured.
• The missiles are believed to have been fired from Adeisa, a Lebanese village that is six kilometers east of Kfar Yuval.
• Rockets were also fired toward the communities of Misgav Am and Goren that mostly landed in open areas.
• Earlier on Sunday there was an attempted infiltration in the Mount Dov area (where there is no fence). Three combatants were killed in the ensuing exchanges of fire. Kalashnikov rifles, magazines, hand grenades and anti-tank missiles were found in their possession. Three IDF soldiers were wounded in the incident.
• In response to these attacks, the IDF struck Hezbollah targets, deep into Lebanon, as far as Jabal Safi, which is 35 kilometres from the Israeli border.

Tel Aviv: Over the weekend families of the hostages and their supporters held a 24-hour rally to mark 100 days in captivity.

• President Herzog spoke in English with a message to the world. “From Hostage Square in Tel Aviv, a symbol of solidarity and humanity,” he said, “I call upon the entire family of nations to do your part. This isn’t just about our battle, it is a battle for the entire world. Stand with life and liberty against barbarism and hate. Stand with freedom and democracy, stand with our hostages, and help bring them back home. There is no ‘later’. The time to act is now.”
• Shelly, the mother of Omer Shem Tov who is being held captive, said, “my husband and I were raised on mutual responsibility and that is how we raised our kids too. We raised them that we don’t leave anyone behind. Onehundred days in which I haven’t had air to breathe and Omer, who is in captivity without his ventilator, really doesn’t have air to breathe. One hundred days in which I’ve gone into Omer’s room and I’ve told him to be strong and have prayed. I’m asking Omer to wait a bit more, another drop. We’ll get you home.”
• Simon Walters, the British Ambassador, delivered a personal message of support from Foreign Secretary Cameron.
• The US Ambassador was also among the speakers, as well as a prerecorded speech by French President Emmanuel Macron.

Context: The IDF’s assessment is that Hezbollah has escalated its attacks in response to the death of senior Hezbollah commanders killed last week, including the commander of their Radwan commando unit, whose remit includes planning infiltration attempts, and the commander of their drone operations in southern Lebanon.

• The infiltration attempt in Mount Dov was claimed by a Palestinian terror group in Lebanon, in response to the recent killing of Hamas leaders Salah al-Arouri and Samir Fendi in Beirut.
• Overall, according to the IDF, around 2,000 rockets, mortars, anti-tank missiles and UAVs have been fired from Lebanon into Israel over the past 100 days.
• Another 30 have been fired from Syria.
• The IDF has struck around 750 targets and has killed around 170 military combatants.
• In the south, the IDF maintain that the military campaign to dismantle Hamas’s military infrastructure is the best method to secure the return the hostages.
• However, there appear to be disagreements within the war cabinet. Minister Gantz and Eisenkot support the statements made by the hostages’ families, that everything must be done in order to reach a deal.
• Prime Minister Netanyahu and Defence Minister Gallant have argued that only military pressure would be able to bring about a deal to free the hostages.
• Despite withdrawing troops from northern Gaza, four divisions continue to operate inside Gaza. According to IDF Chief of Staff, Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi, “the forces are advancing in the field according to plan, and adapting their operational methods to the tasks, the terrain, and the enemy.”
• “We have moved the focus of our efforts to the centre and south of the Strip, where we exposed, including today, weapons manufacturing facilities above and below ground, including missiles intended for the Israeli home front, a real military industry. Destroying these is very important to prevent future strengthening, and it is important to understand, without manoeuvring in the field, it would not have been possible to do this. The forces are thoroughly and methodically dismantling infrastructure, and at the same time, the forces continue to eliminate terrorists from the air, sea, and in brave face-to-face combat on the ground in a very complex area.”
• The IDF also announced that it has destroyed 700 rocket launchers since the operation begun, as well as seizing and destroying hundreds of rockets.
• Nevertheless, Hamas is still able to launch rockets, including six M75 rockets launched yesterday towards Ashdod. One was intercepted, whilst the other five landed in open areas.
• Marking 100 days since the October 7 massacre, the IDF released a range of statistics:
  • In Gaza, of the 23,000 fatalities, over 9,000 are combatants from Hamas and other terror organisations.
  • In terms of the Hamas military leadership, two of their five brigade commanders have been killed, as well as 19 Hamas battalion commanders and over 50 company commanders. These killings disrupt Hamas’s command and control.
  • In addition, around 2,300 suspected combatants have been arrested.
• The IDF also revealed the extend of humanitarian aid that has entered into Gaza Strip. This includes around 137,920 tons of aid:
  • 3,950 trucks, carrying 82,330 tons of food.
  • 1,151 trucks carrying 16,630 tons of tents and shelter equipment.
  • 1,007 trucks carrying 11,510 tons of medical equipment.
  • 863 trucks carrying 17,320 tons of water as well two pipelines delivering water from Israel into Gaza.

Looking ahead: The fate of the hostages held in Gaza looms large over Israeli society.

• In particular, the remaining female hostages who, according to testimony from released hostages, have suffered sexual assaults and some of whom may have become pregnant as a result of being raped in captivity.
• Israeli law allows a standard medical committee to authorise an abortion up to the 24th week of pregnancy. Beyond this, a special committee of senior doctors can authorise an abortion. In the hope that hostages will be released, a special committee will been formed to deal with this scenario.
• Separately, on Sunday Hamas released their latest propaganda video showing three hostages: Noa Argamani, 26, Yossi Sharabi, 53, and Itay Svirsky, 38, identifying themselves and asking the Israeli government to bring them home. The short clip ended with the text: “Tomorrow we will inform you of their fate.

What’s happening: South Africa presented their case to the International Court of Justice on Thursday, accusing Israel of committing genocide against the Palestinians in Gaza.

• Their claim appeared to be based partly on bellicose rhetoric, including from extremist, peripheral members of the Israeli government that the South African lawyers argued are key figures in determining Israeli policy.
• Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s spokesman condemned South Africa’s initiative as “completely unjustified and wrong….legal action does not serve the cause of peace. The UK government stands by Israel’s clear right to defend itself within the framework of international law.”
• Similarly, the US has said there were no grounds to accuse Israel of committing genocide in Gaza. US State Department spokesman Matt Miller said that “allegations that Israel is committing genocide are unfounded. In fact, it is those who are violently attacking Israel who continue to openly call for the annihilation of Israel and the mass murder of Jews… Genocide is one of the most heinous acts any entity or individual can commit, and such allegations should only be made with the greatest of care. Israel has the right to defend itself against Hamas’ terrorist acts — acts that Hamas has vowed to repeat again and again until Israel is completely destroyed. Israel is operating in an exceptionally challenging environment in Gaza, an urban battlespace where Hamas intentionally embeds itself with and hides behind civilians.”
• This morning Israel will make the case for the defence.
  • They will explain that Israel is a fighting a defensive war, after Hamas initiated their brutal massacre on October 7.
  • Since then Israel has conducted their military campaign in line with international law.
  • IDF’s air strikes in the Gaza Strip are based on accurate intelligence information targeting legitimate military targets.
  • Israel operates a policy of distinction and avoids harming Gazan civilians as much as possible.
  • As part of the campaign, Israel made significant efforts to encourage civilians to leave the war zone, so as not to be caught in the fighting.
  • The defence will also emphasise that Israel allows supplies of water, food, and medicine into the Gaza Strip based on the capacity of the border crossings.
• Israel’s Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Lior Haiat described the hearing as “one of the greatest shows of hypocrisy in history, compounded by a series of false and baseless claims.”

Context: The charge of genocide is offensive and inaccurate. Israel perceives this as a political trial with South Africa serving as a proxy for Hamas.

• In a bitter irony, it was Hamas who acted with clear intent to commit genocide on October 7, had they not been stopped by the IDF.
• Inside Gaza, they continue to use their civilian population as human shields and operate military infrastructure from within hospitals, schools, UN shelters, mosques and churches.
• Almost 100 days since the war began, 136 hostages remain in Hamas captivity, denied access to Red Cross representatives and medical care.
• According to Hamas, over 23,000 Palestinians have been killed. Whilst Israel regrets innocent deaths, the death toll alone as part of an intense and complex war does not equate to genocide. Furthermore, Israel’s current assessment is that out of these fatalities at least 8,000 were combatants.
• The ICJ was set up after the Holocaust. Genocide is defined in Article II of the Genocide Convention of 1948 as committing various acts with intent to destroy a national, ethnic, racial or religious group, in whole or in part. The Israeli government has repeatedly stated that its objective is to destroy Hamas.
• The ICJ is the United Nation’s highest court, its rulings are theoretically legally binding, but not enforceable.
• Unlike the International Criminal Court (ICC), the ICJ cannot prosecute individuals for genocide, but its opinions could influence foreign governments policy and international institutions.
• The panel of judges selected by the UN General Assembly includes judges from France, Germany, Australia, India, Slovakia, Jamaica, Japan, Brazil, Russia, China, Morocco, Somalia, Lebanon and Uganda.
• As part of the protocol, both South Africa and Israel also have a representative on the panel of judges. Israel sent former Supreme Court president Aharon Barak.
• Barak, a child survivor of the Holocaust, escaped the Kovno ghetto in a sack of hay, before becoming a world renowned jurist. In Israel there is hope that his influence among the other judges during the consultation process will limit the damage.
• Jeremy Corbyn, the former leader of the Labour party was in the Hague yesterday, supporting the South African and Palestinian case.
• Although the South African claims appear unfounded, Israel faces internal criticism over the government’s message discipline, with the prime minister accused of not having reigned in extremist ministers and for failure to articulate a diplomatic vision for Gaza.

Looking ahead: In the first instance South Africa is appealing for the court to issues an injunction demanding the end of the war.

• The court could declare a whole range of options:
  • It could absolve Israel of guilt.
  • It could also side with South Africa and issue an immediate call to end the war.
  • It could also include recommendation for range of actions.
  • A call to expand humanitarian aid, (Israel already appears open to this).
  • Insisting Gazans should be allowed return to their homes in north Gaza. Israel has so far conditioned their return on the release of hostages.
  • Support for more international organisations to enter Gaza

ICJ: The International Court of Justice (ICJ) in The Hague will today hear arguments alleging that Israel has violated the Genocide Convention, to which it is a signatory.

• The hearings are a result of an urgent appeal, lodged by South Africa, designed to have the court force Israel to “immediately suspend” its military operations in Gaza.
• The hearings will focus on the request to issue a provisional order against Israel, while Israel’s arguments will be heard tomorrow.
• South Africa’s application alleges that Israel has violated several articles of the Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide during the war, including committing genocide, incitement to genocide, attempted genocide, and failure to punish incitement to genocide.
• The president of the court is Judge Joan Donoghue from the United States. Other judges are from France, Germany, Australia, India, Slovakia, Jamaica, Japan, Brazil, Russia, China, Morocco, Somalia, Lebanon and Uganda.
• Both South Africa and Israel have sent judges who were nominated as ad hoc members of the panel. Israel’s judge will be former Supreme Court president Aharon Barak. Israel’s principle legal representative in the court will be British attorney Malcom Shaw.
• Isaac Herzog yesterday dismissed the case as “atrocious” and “preposterous.” Visiting US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in Tel Aviv on Tuesday that the charge of genocide brought by South Africa in the ICJ is “meritless,” and called it “particularly galling” because “Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis and their supporter Iran continue to openly call for the annihilation of Israel and the mass murder of Jews.”
• US State Department spokesman Matt Miller also said in a statement that “allegations that Israel is committing genocide are unfounded. In fact, it is those who are violently attacking Israel who continue to openly call for the annihilation of Israel and the mass murder of Jews… Genocide is one of the most heinous acts any entity or individual can commit, and such allegations should only be made with the greatest of care. Israel has the right to defend itself against Hamas’ terrorist acts — acts that Hamas has vowed to repeat again and again until Israel is completely destroyed. Israel is operating in an exceptionally challenging environment in Gaza, an urban battlespace where Hamas intentionally embeds itself with and hides behind civilians.”

Hostages: After a delegation of the hostages’ families returned from Qatar, a new Qatari proposal for a deal was put to Israel which the war cabinet discussed.

• Mossad Director David Barnea, who recently spoke with the Qatari prime minister, shared that information with the security cabinet. The deal reportedly calls for the release of all the hostages in a number of stages, in exchange for the IDF’s complete withdrawal from the Gaza Strip and the exile of the Hamas leaders.
• Israeli officials told Kan Radio that it was their understanding that the Qatari proposal, had not been coordinated with the Hamas leadership.
• Hamas leader Ismail Haniya in Qatar said that Israel will never get its hostages back unless it releases all the prisoners who are in jail, which also appears to be Yahya Sinwar’s position.
• President Joe Biden sent his envoy Brett McGurk, who played a major role in reaching the last hostage deal, to Qatar.
• Minister Benny Gantz said yesterday: “The most urgent thing is the hostages’ return. That has priority over any course of action in the fighting. If there are any hostages who are watching us now, it is important that you know—we are doing everything for you to return to your loved ones, who have never stopped fighting for you. There is no channel that they are not working on, there is no path that they haven’t trod for this to happen. Be strong.”
• IDF Spokesperson Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari said the army had located a tunnel in Khan Yunis in which hostages had been held. “The troops located a tunnel in which hostages were held in harsh difficult conditions below ground. We brought international correspondents into them today for them to reveal to the world the crimes that Hamas commits against humanity. The hostages are the supreme effort. In the past too, there were quite a few operations that we did not report [to rescue them]. There were also operations that we stopped.”

Jerusalem/West Bank: The police and Shin Bet announced that they had arrested two individuals suspected of belonging to ISIS and of planning to carry out an attack against security forces. The two were allegedly planning to make explosive devices, inspired by videos published by the Islamic State which they watched online. The suspects, aged 21 and 23, are residents of Jabel Mukaber in East Jerusalem. The police said they found paedophilia material on one of the individual’s mobile phones, initiating an investigation into the matter.

Context: The South African case rests on the large number of Palestinian deaths in Gaza, its allegations that food, water, and medical care available to the Gazan population has been restricted, and statements by Israeli government ministers about Palestinians in Gaza it alleges amount to incitement to genocide.

• Israeli Justice Ministry officials believe there is a real chance the ICJ will agree to South Africa’s demands and will issue some kind of injunction against Israel.
• At the same time, it is not expected to call for a cease-fire in the Gaza Strip,
• The court can also instruct Israel to allow humanitarian aid in the Strip, to establish an independent inquiry, or to allow displaced Palestinians to return to northern Gaza.
• Such provisional instructions do not rely on the court concluding that the case brought has been proven, only that it is plausible. The bar to establish plausibility of genocidal actions is much lower than a final definitive determination.
• Prime Minister Netanyahu, meanwhile, made it clear yesterday that “Israel has no intention of permanently occupying Gaza or displacing its civilian population. Israel is fighting Hamas terrorists, not the Palestinian population. And we’re doing so in full compliance with international law.”
• Senior Israeli officials reiterated yesterday that any proposal to free the hostages that includes a demand to end the war and to withdraw IDF troops as a precondition for negotiations is unacceptable and would not be given positive consideration. Yahya Sinwar does also not appear to be prepared to go into exile.
• The mediators hold their talks with Hamas’s political leadership, which is not based in the Gaza Strip. That leadership is headed by Ismail Haniya, who lives in Qatar. The degree of influence he has over Sinwar is uncertain.
• Hamas’s overseas leadership did not formally respond to the idea of exiling Hamas’s [Gaza] leadership, but did say that Yahya Sinwar and his brother Muhammad and Mohammed Deif and Marwan Issa would “scornfully dismiss the idea of leaving the Gaza Strip.”
• The United States has been exerting massive pressure on Qatar to advance a deal: one channel with Qatar is being run by CIA Director William Burns, whereas Biden personally dispatched his envoy Bret McGurk. An Israeli delegation is also scheduled to leave for Cairo in the next few days to continue the talks.
• Hamas had previously rejected similar proposals and had insisted that any release of Israeli hostages must be met with the release of Palestinian prisoners.

Looking ahead: Initial ICJ rulings are expected in the next few weeks with a final ruling likely to take years.

• Israel is due to approve in the next few days the entry of 400 trucks carrying humanitarian aid into Gaza every day, instead of the 200 that enter today. Reports suggest that a promise was made to US Secretary of State Antony Blinken in meetings in Israel yesterday that this number would increase further.
• Amos Hochstein will meet with officials in Beirut later “in an effort to advance discussions to restore calm” along the border between Lebanon and Israel. A US National Security Council spokesperson said: “The United States has made clear it does not support the ongoing conflict spreading into Lebanon and continues to exhaust all diplomatic options to see Israeli and Lebanese civilians return to their homes and live in security and stability.”