BICOM

What’s happened: Yesterday, the US conducted its fifth strike in a week against Houthi-controlled sites in Yemen.

• The latest attack was smaller than previous missions, targeting a “small number” of anti-ship missiles that the Houthis were about to launch against vessels in the Red Sea.
• The US has also confirmed that yesterday the Houthis launched two anti-ship ballistic missiles on a US-owned tanker ship, Chem Ranger, in the Gulf of Aden. Although the Houthis claimed a “direct hit”, no damage or injuries were reported and the vessel continued on its way.
• Overnight Wednesday, the US struck more than a dozen Houthi sites, following a Houthi drone attack on a US vessel, also in the Gulf of Aden.
• Speaking yesterday, Pentagon spokesperson Sabrina Singh said US strikes were purely defensive in nature and that the US was “not at war with the Houthis.” “The Houthis are the ones that continue to launch cruise missiles, anti-ship missiles at innocent mariners,” she continued. “What we are doing, with our partners, is self-defence.”
• Adding to the tension in the Red Sea, the Iranian navy declared that its destroyer Alvarez was patrolling the Red Sea to protect Iranian vessels.

Context: According to the IDF, since October 7th, the Houthis have launched 34 ballistic missile and UAV attacks on Israel and at least 52 naval attacks on international vessels in the Red Sea.

• The disruption to global trade caused by this Houthi aggression, has been significant, especially that between Europe and Asia.
• In mid-December, in response, the US formed a multi-nation coalition, including the UK, dubbed Operation Prosperity Guardian. The first US military response came on December 31st, with operations ratcheted up beginning January 11th.
• On 10 January 2024, the UN Security Council adopted resolution 2722 (2024) which condemned the Houthi attacks, demanded they stop, affirmed the right to freedom of navigation, and reaffirmed the arms embargo in place against the Houthis.
• The Biden administration has also this week re-designated the Houthis as a terrorist organisation, having lifted the classification in February 2021 in order to ease the flow of aid into Yemen.
• In a Yemen decimated by the impact of a brutal civil war, at least 75 percent of the population rely on aid for their survival.
• Nevertheless, the Houthis have advanced missile and UAV capacity supplied by Iran, enabling them to attack Israel and target ships in the southern Red Sea.
• Last weekend, Prime Minister Netanyahu described the conflict as “a war against the axis of evil that is led by Iran and its three proxies—the three Hs: Hezbollah, Hamas and the Houthis.”
• In an interview published in Russian media this morning and cited by The Guardian, senior Houthi official Mohammed al-Bukhaiti said that Russian and Chinese vessels would be allowed free movement in the Red Sea, but that any vessel “in any way connected with Israel” would continue to be subject to attack.
• The Guardian also quotes the Houthis leader Abdul-Malik al-Houthi saying yesterday that it was a “great honour” to be in conflict with Israel, the US, and UK.

Context from the Podcast

• ‘The Houthis are at their core a religious revival movement of Shia Zaydi Islam, which is a sect of Islam, different from what we know [of Shi’ism] in Iran and Lebanon. They started operating in the early 1990s from the northern province of Sadat, and they were helping to revive Zaydi Islam, as it was marginalised by the central government…’
• ‘We saw a radicalisation of the Houthis after September 11 and then after the invasion by the US of Iraq in 2003… Yemen is very much divided, fragmented, fragile. We can see that since the beginning we had the Houthis on the one hand and the ousted central government on the other hand, with many other tribal forces and also the Southern Movement, which was calling for the independence of the south and also members of what we call the Muslim Brotherhood.’
• ‘All of them were part of the coalition against the Houthis. And then at the beginning of 2015, we have Saudi Arabia joining and forming a coalition of other countries, mainly Arab countries, along with the United Arab States. All of them fight in order to what Saudis say, return the internationally recognized government and also to stop the Houthis from taking over all of Yemen as they see them as an Iranian proxy.’
• ‘The Saudis want… out of Yemen completely. They are willing to give them many concessions in order to achieve that: in terms of changing the border line with Yemen, especially in the in the western part; in terms of allowing ships and flights to international Sanaa Airport to go in; and so many other concessions.’
• ‘But though the Saudis claim to have almost a done deal with the Houthis, we did not see an agreement, a full agreement of ending the war between the two powers. The situation now is very fragile and is threatening to pull once again the Saudis into Yemeni territories and might even renew the war within Yemen…’
• ‘And now what the Houthis are doing in relation to the war in Gaza would have implications potentially at home to renew the civil war with Saudi Arabia. And I think that as much as the Houthis don’t want that, the Saudis don’t want that even more.’
• ‘Radicalisation after 2003 within Houthi ranks brings us to “God is great, death to America. Death to Israel, curse on the Jews, victory to Islam”… But also with that comes a pro-Palestinian sentiment.’
• ‘We have to look at it not only through the eyes of their alliance with Iran… but also the gains for them within Yemen and the region and their Palestinian brothers. So you have, first of all, a lot of support that they’re gaining, both within Yemen, even from their biggest opponents, and outside in the Arab and Muslim world for helping the Palestinians.’
• ‘For them, it is very embarrassing, maybe for Saudi Arabia, Egypt or other countries that they’re not doing enough for the Palestinians, but the Houthis do so and it helps them perhaps magnify their part in in in the Arab and Muslim world by doing that.’

Looking ahead: Despite the Houthis’ recent attacks, it has not yet been declared by Israel to be a terror organisation. Following the US announcement designating the Houthi as such, Israel is planning a similar action and this is now being reviewed by senior security officials.

• While a UK government source told The Times this week that the “option is always available” for London to follow Washington in proscribing the Houthis as a terror group, there is no evidence that moves have been made in this direction