BICOM

With rules stipulating that polls cannot be conducted during the week preceding an election, a series of surveys was published in Israel this morning, giving a final indicator of how the country might vote in next week’s election.

Polls were published in this morning’s editions of Maariv and Israel Hayom, while a Channel Ten survey was also widely covered in the media. Although each of the polls indicates that the Likud-Beitenu list headed by current-prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu will comfortably be the largest faction in the next Knesset, there are significant discrepancies over the margin of victory, which could prove significant in attempts to form a coalition government.

The Maariv poll indicates that the Likud-Beitenu list will win 37 seats, while the Channel Ten survey suggests that it will receive just 32 mandates. Israel Hayom predicts that Likud-Beitenu will secure 35 seats. However, all agree that the Labour Party is likely to be the second largest party in the next Knesset with 15-17 seats, followed by Jewish Home on 14 or 15 mandates. The Channel Ten poll indicates that if the Likud-Beitenu vote has weakened as it projects, then the extreme right-wing Strong Israel and Tzipi Livni’s centrist Hatnuah party could both profit.

Looking at the political map as a whole, the Channel Ten poll indicates that the right-wing and religious bloc of parties will garner 64 seats, with the centrist and left-wing parties likely to secure 56 mandates. However, the Maariv poll puts the gap between the two blocs at a much higher 26 seats. Channel Ten’s survey also suggests that 14 per cent of voters remain undecided who they will vote for even at this late stage of the campaign.