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Obama said to put odds of Iran nuclear deal at ‘less than 50-50’
As negotiators remained locked in talks in Vienna yesterday to broker a long-term nuclear accord between Iran and the P5+1 (US, UK, France, Russia, China and Germany), US President Barack Obama is said to have estimated the chances of an agreement as “less than 50-50.”
Obama hosted a White House event for Senate Democrats. American outlet Politico quotes Senator Richard Durbin who said that Obama told them “the chances … were less than 50-50 at this point and that he wouldn’t agree to something he thought was weak or unenforceable.” Another Senator Chris Murphy concurred, saying that Obama “wanted to make it clear to us that if it’s a bad deal, there’s no deal.”
Having agreed a framework to a comprehensive nuclear deal in April, Iran and the P5+1 are negotiating to conclude a long-term Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. However, two deadlines to reach such agreement have already slipped and the latest target is a deal by tomorrow. However, should an agreement be submitted to US Congress for review after today, it would hand Congress 60 days to consider an agreement rather than 30, potentially holding back its implementation.
There was little sign yesterday that significant progress had been made. Iran’s ISNA news agency claimed, “Iran has presented constructive solutions to overcome the remaining differences.” However, Reuters quotes a Western diplomat who said “I haven’t seen anything new from Iran.”
Outstanding issues appear to include the question of re-imposing sanctions if Iran violates the deal, details over international inspections of Iranian sites and limits on Iranian nuclear research and development. Meanwhile, this week Iran is said to have introduced an eleventh hour demand that the P5+1 commit to lifting a United Nations arms embargo from 2007. Tehran already provides material support to Hamas, Hezbollah, Syria’s President Assad and rebels in Yemen. Lifting the embargo would increase Iran’s potential to destabilise the region. Reuters quotes a Western official, who called lifting arms restrictions a “pretty obscene” scenario.