BICOM

IDF Chief of Staff Gadi Eizenkot yesterday discussed a range of security issues, in particular the impact of the recent implementation of the nuclear deal between Iran and the P5+1 powers (US, UK, France, Russia, China and Germany).

Over the weekend, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) declared that Iran has complied with the conditions of July’s deal, which requires Iran to significantly reduce its nuclear development over the next ten years in return for sanctions relief. As a result, the United States and European Union both announced that associated sanctions have been lifted, a move which is expected to quickly unfreeze billions of pounds worth of Iranian assets.

Eizenkot was speaking yesterday at the annual conference of the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) think tank. He said that, “The sanctions relief and the nuclear deal with Iran represent a strategic shift that the IDF will have to tackle over the next decade.” Eizenkot predicted that “over the next five years Iran will make considerable efforts to fulfil its part [of the nuclear agreement] and get the benefits from that.” Nonetheless, he warned, “Their vision of obtaining a nuclear weapon will continue insofar as Iran views itself as a regional power.”

In particular, Eizenkot highlighted that, “Iran manages a war against Israel by means of proxies such as Hezbollah, which today represents the most serious threat to Israel.” To this end, “The Iranians have so far transferred around a billion dollars each year to Hezbollah and we estimate that this will increase. They also try to transfer tens of millions of dollars to Hamas each year.”

Touching on the wider region, Eizenkot said that, “To my understanding, the Sunni-Shi’ite conflict and the fighting in Syria will continue for many years.” He predicted that it will eventually impact Israel, saying, “The successes against ISIS, in my view, raise the likelihood that we will see them turn their attention to us and the Jordanians.”