BICOM

In the latest indication of raised tensions between Iran and the West, the Iranian armed forces and Revolutionary Guards have raised their level of alert, according to a report in today’s Daily Telegraph. The article quotes unnamed western intelligence officials who said that in response to rising western concerns and pressure over its nuclear programme, Iran is beginning preparations for a possible confrontation.

The article noted a number of practical steps taken, including the implementation of plans to disperse long-range missile and artillery units, to reduce their vulnerability to attack from the air. The Iranian Air Force has also formed a number of ‘rapid reaction’ units to respond to air attacks on Iran. The report also notes that these measures were taken in response to a directive issued by Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

The steps taken by the Iranian armed forces constitute the latest move in the escalating tension between Iran and the West, which has been apparent in recent weeks. According to media reports, some senior Iranian officials believe they have been subject to a sustained series of assaults by western intelligence agencies against its nuclear programme, excluding an explosion at a missile base near Tehran two week ago and an explosion last week in Isfahan, near an Iranian nuclear facility. Even if the explosions were not caused by sabotage, the general atmosphere in Iran is one of suspicion and fear.

The new measures from Iran may be seen as an act of muscle flexing, intended to convey the message that it takes the threat against itself seriously, and possesses abilities to defend itself and respond in the event that the tension increases to a higher level.

In this regard, Iran claimed over the weekend that it had shot down an advance stealth drone flying over Iranian skies. US officials initially dismissed the report, but now admit that they ‘lost control’ of a drone over western Afghanistan. The drone, the RQ-170 Sentinel, contains sensitive technology and it would represent a notable achievement for the Iranians if they have captured a drone of this type. The sabre-rattling between the sides, in any case, looks set to continue.

In an additional move likely to raise tensions in the region, Syria held a large military drill over the weekend, which included the launch of a Scud B type missile, with a range of over 300 kilometres. A senior IDF official said that the Syrian drill was not intended as a threat to Israel, but rather as a signal to the international community that Syria could resist any attempt to intervene militarily in order to stop the bloodletting in Syria, which has claimed 4,000 lives over the last eight months.

In any case, Iran and its ally Syria are indicating to the world that there is a price to pay for interfering in their affairs. The launching of a Scud missile by Syria, combined with the takeover of the British Embassy in Tehran last week and the raised level of alert in Iran, appears to be their way of showing the world that any sort of intervention, covert or otherwise, will not go unanswered.