BICOM

According to reports in Haaretz and Ynetnews today, Israel and the United States have recently been discussing ‘red lines’ which would necessitate a military strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities. Israeli Defence Minister Ehud Barak was in Washington last week to discuss Iran and US undersecretary of state for political affairs, Wendy Sherman, and State Department arms control adviser Robert Einhorn, visited Israel last week.

According to an article in the influential Washington blog, the ‘Daily Beast’, Israeli officials were angered after a recent speech by US Defense Secretary Leon Panetta, in which he said that an attack on Iranian nuclear facilities could “consume the Middle East in a confrontation and a conflict that we would regret.” This statement, according to the blog, led to an official complaint by Israeli Ambassador to the US Michael Oren, and to a response by Washington outlining its own ‘red lines’ regarding Iran. Last week both Panetta, and US Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Martin Dempsey, gave interviews stressing US willingness to use military force if necessary. Dempsey is one of several senior US officials due to visit Israel in the next few weeks. According a report in today’s Yediot Ahronot, the US administration is keen to avoid Israel surprising the US by taking unexpected military action against Iran in the coming year.

The Daily Beast quoted Matthew Kroenig, a former adviser on Iran to the US Secretary of Defense, outlining a number of scenarios in which Washington might find a military strike against Iranian nuclear facilities necessary. These included if Iran were to expel IAEA observers, if it were to enrich uranium to weapons grade, and if it were to install advanced centrifuges in its newly constructed underground uranium enrichment facility in Qom. According to Kroenig, Iran making progress on new secret enrichment facilities would also be a factor.