BICOM

What’s happened: Thousands of Jewish worshippers gathered at the Western Wall today for the traditional priestly blessing.

• Hundreds of Israeli police and border patrol have been deployed in the Old City and the Jerusalem seamline.
• In addition, 750 Jews visited the Temple Mount yesterday, to coincide with the Sukkot festival.
• Meanwhile, Israel has reopened the Erez crossing to allow 18,000 Gazans with work permits to enter into Israel.
• The decision followed two weeks of violent rioting on the Gaza border, which led to the closure.
• The understandings to reopen the crossing was achieved through Egypt and Qatari mediation.
• The rioting had been led by the “Rebel Youth” organisation, which has affiliations with both Hamas and Islamic Jihad. They confirmed ending the violent protests but added in their statement, “if the Qataris cut even one dollar, we will unsheathe our swords against the occupier.”
• Hamas and the Rebel Youth are also threatening a resumption of violence in connection with Jews visiting the Temple Mount in Jerusalem.
• In parallel, members of the Israeli Security Cabinet convened yesterday to discuss a range of security issues, including sensitivity over the Temple Mount. Notably, the meeting excluded Minister Ben Gvir.

Context: Sukkot is one of the three festivals connected with an ascent to Jerusalem. Jews traditionally pray at the Western Wall. Since 1967, the Status Quo agreement ensures that all non-Muslims are allowed to visit Temple Mount but not pray.

• Ben Gvir is part of the campaign to extend Jewish rights on the Temple Mount, whilst Netanyahu has vigorously defended the status quo.
• Although the Temple Mount falls under the purview of Ben Gvir, he was excluded from yesterday’s meeting, as the latest sign of the prime minister’s growing frustration with his contrarian approach.
• Last month Ben Gvir tried to restrict visitation rights of Palestinian security prisoners. Despite that also being part of his ministerial responsibility, he was overruled in the Security Cabinet by the IDF, Shin Bet and the National Security Council.
• The Israeli-Hamas understandings are not new and resemble the agreements reached after Operation Guardian of the Walls in 2021. Israel is prepared to facilitate economic relief measures as long as there is no violence.
• Over the summer the Israeli government approved the development of the Gaza Marine natural gas field off the Gaza coast.
• The Rebel Youth organisation is thought to take instructions from the Hamas leadership. In turn the Rebel Youth led the incitement to violence, which included the use of powerful explosive devices, attempts to damage the security fence and infiltrate into Israel, as well as instances of live fire. Protestors also launched incendiary balloons into southern Israel. In response, Israel struck Hamas military targets, deploying drones, helicopters, and tank fire.
• As well as demands on Israel, Hamas is demanding Qatar increase its donations to poor Gazan families and maintain its supply of fuel for the Gazan power station.
• There is also tension between Hamas leadership and the Qatari government, with the Qataris keen for Hamas to develop its own longer-term solutions and wean themselves off reliance on Qatari funds.
• Overall, Hamas use the Gazan protestors as a pressure lever, whilst continuing to encourage terror attacks emanating from the West Bank and using the issue of the Temple Mount/Al Aqsa as a motivation for attacks.

Looking ahead: Israeli security forces remain on high alert, particularly in the Jerusalem and the West Bank until the end of the Sukkot festival next weekend.

• Hundreds of Jews are expected in visit the Temple Mount in the next few days.
• If the Gaza Strip remains quiet Israel is expected to:
  • Increase the number of entry permits for Gazan workers.
  • Expand the fishing zone off the coast of the Gaza Strip.
  • Allow more goods to be exported out of Gaza and allow the import of more equipment.