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What Happened: Prime Minister designate Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud and Bezalel Smotrich’s Religious Zionism have reached an agreement in their coalition negotiations.

• The sides appear to have reached an understanding over the recognition and provision of services to outposts hitherto illegal under Israeli law (and referred to euphemistically as ‘newer settlements’).
• These unauthorised settlements are set to be connected to water and electricity supply within two months, and those built on “state land” legalised within a year.
• Smotrich will head an expanded Finance Ministry in rotation (after two years) with Shas leader Aryeh Deri, who will be appointed to both the Health and expanded Interior Ministry briefs.
• Netanyahu had denied Smotrich the coveted defence portfolio, but instead will expand his party’s influence over some aspects of West Bank policy.
• The Defence Ministry will retain the offices of Civil Administration in Judea and Samaria and Coordinator of Government Activities in the Territories. Crucially, however, a Religious Zionism MK – likely either Orit Struck, Smotrich himself, or a combination– will oversee both offices and wield considerable influence over settlement policy.
• Religious Zionism will also control the Immigration and Absorption Ministry (with Ofir Sofer the likely minister) and the chairmanship of the Knesset’s Constitution, Law, and Justice Committee (likely to be held by Simcha Rothman).

Other cabinet positions: The senior roles of Defence, Foreign, and Justice Minister will be filled from within the Likud and are expected to go to Yoav Galant, Amir Ohana, and Yariv Levin respectively. The Education and Transport ministries are likely be to headed by Likud MKs Eli Cohen and Miri Regev.

• Shas will control the Religious Affairs and Welfare ministries.
• Jewish Power leader Itamar Ben Gvir will be named National Security Minister and receive an expanded public security portfolio, including authority over Border Police operating in the West Bank.
• Noam Party Chairman Avi Maoz’s will assume a “Jewish Identity” role in the Prime Minister’s office and will also oversee the Education Ministry’s external programming and collaborations.
• The previous Negev, Galilee and Periphery Development Ministry will likely see its brief divided in two, with a Negev and Galilee portfolio handed to Jewish Power and responsibility for the periphery portfolio subsumed by an Interior Ministry under Shas control.

Context: The successful negotiations represent a major achievement for Religious Zionism.

• Its oversight of West Bank civilian policy and control of the Immigration and Absorption Ministry and the Knesset’s Constitution, Law, and Justice Committee portfolio could prove crucial to the chances of implementing some of its most controversial legislative ambitions, including:
  • Changes to the Law of Return, including the removals of the “Grandfather Clause” (expected to be opposed by Netanyahu) and the recognition of non-Orthodox conversions for the purpose of immigration.
  • Increased building in settlements and clamping down on illegal Palestinian construction in area C.
  • Judicial reform, likely to include a Knesset override of Supreme Court rulings.
  • Barring the indictment of a sitting prime minister (the so-called ‘French Law’) and also providing immunity from criminal prosecution for ministers.

• Netanyahu has sought to calm international concern by claiming that policy will reflect a traditional Likud approach. “Defence”, he said in a recent interview, “is not merely… preventing incoming missiles. It’s also deciding on policies that could be quite inflammatory. I’m trying to avoid that.”
• Netanyahu has also made comments designed to reassure international and domestic audiences that despite the dominance of religious parties in the coalition, Israel will remain guided by secular traditions in forming its laws: “Israel is not going to be governed by Talmudic law”, he said.
• United Torah Judaism officials are said to be angry that the Likud has prioritised concluding coalition deals with Jewish Power, Religious Zionism, and Shas over them. A UTJ source is quoted saying: “They think they can buy us with crumbs. That isn’t going to happen.”
• Likud MKs are also said to be angry that Religious Zionism and Shas have been so well rewarded at the expense of their own part.
• The announcement of Moaz’s roles has prompted concerns from Diaspora leaders and LGBTQ organisations.
  • The former are worried over Moaz’s proposals to annul recognition of non-Orthodox conversion and to restrict the right Aliyah to those who can prove at least one Jewish parent.
  • The latter fear that Moaz will use his educational remit to promote an anti-LGBTQ agenda, having been vocal opposing LGBTQ rights and having promised to end Jerusalem’s annual Pride Parade.
  • Outgoing Education Minister Yifat Shasha-Biton recently lamented that “a man for whom hatred is his vocation is going to control the materials that get taught at schools.”

Looking ahead: The breakthrough with Smotrich opens the possibility of Netanyahu being able to present a government to President Isaac Herzog by the initial deadline of December 11^th.

• However, it has been reported that Netanyahu plans to request that Herzog trigger a two-week extension, giving him until December 25^th to ensure not only that all posts are filled and the coalition’s agenda coordinated, but also that Deri’s legal position has been clarified.
• Deri’s appointment will require the Knesset to pass new legislation – already prepared by Shas – clarifying that a suspended sentence does not meet the threshold of moral turpitude required to bar someone from ministerial service.
• To do this, the coalition bloc will first need to take over the parliamentary process by electing a new Speaker of Knesset. This will go to a Likud MK, though Netanyahu has not yet decided whom to appoint as it is dependent on first filling cabinet posts.