BICOM

What’s happened: A ceasefire is currently in place, following extensive rocket fire at southern Israel over the last 24 hours.

• The rockets came in several waves, beginning yesterday morning with three rockets fired towards Kibbutz Saad.
• The rockets came in response to the death of Khader Adnan, a 45-year-old member of Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) who had been on hunger strike for the last three months whilst imprisoned. He had refused medical assistance and was found unconscious in his cell yesterday morning.
• Yesterday afternoon, (coinciding with end of the school day) 30 rockets were fired, including an intense barrage of 22 rockets in just five minutes. Of the 22, 16 fell in open areas, 4 were intercepted by the Iron Dome missile defence system, whilst 2 landed in Sderot. Three men were injured on a construction site, including one in a serious condition. He was hospitalised and is now stable.
• The IDF responded with air strikes targeting sixteen Hamas military sites, including weapon manufacturing facilities, military posts, and an underground terror tunnel.
• According to Palestinian sources, one Gazan was killed and five injured in a strike on a Hamas military post.
• Around 70 rockets were fired throughout the night, with warnings sounded beyond the Gaza Strip periphery to Ashkelon.
• Overall, of 104 rockets fired into Israel it is estimated that 59 landed in uninhabited areas (including at least 11 in the Mediterranean Sea). 24 were intercepted by the Iron Dome, whilst 14 failed to cross the border and landed inside the Gaza Strip. 7 rockets remain unaccounted for. The Iron Dome recorded 90% successful interceptions.

Context: Despite this latest round of fighting, the overall logic remains that both Israel and Hamas prefer a return to quiet and do not want a further escalation of fighting in the south.

• Unlike last August when Israel clashed with the PIJ and Hamas stayed out, yesterday Hamas gave its consent for PIJ to carry out the rocket attacks, but did not directly participate.
• There is concern in Israel that Hamas and PIJ are taking advantage of the perceived weakening of Israel due to the domestic unrest, including the economic fallout and perceived deterioration in ties with the US.
• There is also concern over the growing coordination and ties between the Palestinian terror groups and Iran. Last month saw Israel attacked from various fronts including rocket fire from Lebanon and Syria.
• Now that Ramadan has finished and the sensitive holiday period in Israel is over, there are some in the Israeli government calling for a harsher response to the rocket fire.
• Similarly, some residents of the south that have born the brunt of rocket attacks for close to two decades expect this right-wing government to respond more robustly.
• Some are calling for a return to targeted assassinations of senior terrorists in order to restore deterrence.
• Prior to his death Khader Adnan was not considered a senior PIJ figures, but had an enhanced reputation as he had been in and out of administrative detention and conducted numerous hunger strikes. He was considered one of the movement’s ‘spiritual leaders’, continuously advocating for terror attacks against Israel (hence his continued arrests).
• Adnan came from Jenin, raising concerns of possible revenge attacks emanating from there.

Looking ahead: Following the ceasefire brokered by Egypt and the UN, the IDF announced this morning a full return to normal in the Gaza Strip periphery, including schools which will be open as usual.

• Despite the declared ceasefire, Israeli officials have said they are prepared for ongoing hostilities, including heightened alerts in the West Bank.