BICOM

What happened: The coalition is reeling after it failed to place a candidate on the Judges Selection Committee (JSC).

• While the opposition succeeded in electing its candidate, Yesh Atid MK Karin Elharrar, Leader of the Opposition MK Lapid and the head of National Unity MK Gantz declared a pause in the compromise talks until the JSC is formed and convened.
• PM Netanyahu responded that it proved the opposition wanted to blow up the dialogue at the President’s Residence.
• Netanyahu’s political gambit appears to have backfired. Going into Wednesday’s vote he had committed to the opposition (in the context of the compromise talks) to elect one coalition and one opposition MK (1-1).
• However, his right wing partners were insisting that they use their inbuild Knesset majority to elect two coalition MKs (2-0).
• On Wednesday morning the Prime Minister presented a third way, to buy more time and delay the vote by not fielding a candidate and encouraging the coalition to vote down the opposition candidate (0-0).
• No less than eight coalition MKs had submitted their candidacy, seven of whom consented to pull out.
• When Likud MK Talli Gotliv refused, Netanyahu instructed Likud and his coalitional partners to vote against both Gotliv and Elharrar.
• In a rare secret ballot, Elharrar was ultimately elected with 58 votes for and 56 against, meaning at least four coalition MKs voted for her (0-1).
• Likud candidate Gotliv received only 15 votes for and 59 against.
• Recriminations have been heard within the Likud, with some calling those who voted for Elharrar ‘traitors’ for voting with the opposition.

Reminder: Judges Selection Committee is comprised of nine members: The Justice Minister, another government minister, three Supreme Court justices, two representatives of the Israel Bar Association and two members of Knesset. A supermajority of seven out of nine is required to choose Supreme Court Judges, while a simple majority of five is required for lower court judges.

Context: The delayed appointment of a coalition representative could still be helpful for the Prime Minister as there are more important issues on his agenda than judicial reform.

• The vote has exposed a rift within the coalition that could now mean they no longer have a majority even if the judicial reforms were to be presented in open Knesset votes.
• As this was a secret ballot it is also not certain that opposition disciple was perfect, which would mean there could be more than four rebels in the coalition.
• Gotliv had the party whip removed for breaking party and coalition discipline. She has been removed from membership to Knesset committees and will not be allowed to propose bills or speak for the Likud. Ironically, Netanyahu supported her advancement in the Likud primaries because of her perceived loyalty.
• Despite the ongoing weekly protests, the public mood has calmed for the last two months of compromise talks.
• However as the vote appeared to be delayed, the main indexes on Tel Aviv Stock Exchange fell and the shekel weakened more than 2% before regaining slightly to trade 1.4% lower.
• Before results were announced, Israeli media channels invited protest leaders to the studios and the police braced for more mass protests, placing barricades around the Prime Minister’s Residence. This dissipated when the opposition surprisingly won the vote.

What’s next: The other advantage to the delay for the coalition is to now see what happens in the Israel Bar Association elections for its Chair and national council on June 20.

• The National Council chooses the Bar Association’s two representatives on the JSC.
• The Interim Bar head, Amit Becher, is an outspoken opponent of the government’s plans for judicial reform. Another candidate, former head Effi Nave is considered more sympathetic to the proposed reforms.
• The Bar Association representatives on the Selection Committee could prove crucial. If both of them vote together with the three members of the coalition (two Ministers and likely one Knesset representative), the coalition will be able to appoint judges to the lower courts.

Looking ahead: Based on Knesset bylaws, the second Knesset representative to the JSC (in addition to Elharrar) must be chosen within the next month.

• Ultimately, only Justice Minister Levin has the authority to convene the Committee. Levin recently told Likud activists that he believes that the identity of the Knesset’s representatives on the committee is meaningless as long as the method for selecting judges isn’t changed.
• The government also has an option to unilaterally legislate all or parts of its judicial plans. While several senior Likud party members reportedly want to strike judicial reform from the agenda, others inside Likud, such as Ministers Levin, Amsalem, and Karhi are pushing for this scenario.