BICOM

What happened: more than 1,100 people have been arrested by Egyptian authorities, amidst growing protests against the rule of President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi.

• A number of high profile figures have been detained including one of Egypt’s most prominent opposition figures, a former spokesman for a candidate in last year’s presidential election, and a famous writer.
• Hundreds took to the streets in Cairo initially last Friday and protests have since spread to other cities in Egypt.
• The protests are targeting alleged corruption, and include calls for Sisi to resign. They were prompted by a call from Mohamed Ali, a self-exiled Egyptian businessman who has been one of Sisi’s most vocal critics, posting almost daily videos on YouTube in which he accuses Sisi and his officials of corruption.

Context: Abdel Fattah al-Sisi took over as President after launching a coup to topple the Muslim Brotherhood leader Mohammed Morsi in July 2013. Many analysts and commentators view Sisi as more repressive than Hosni Mubarak who was overthrown in 2011.

• At least 60,000 people are reported to have been detained in the past six years, according to the BBC
• Egypt’s economy has been doing poorly in recent months. In July, Egypt’s national statistics agency, the Central Agency for Public Mobilisation and Statistics said that 33 per cent of Egypt’s population of 99 million were classified as poor in 2018, an increase from 28 per cent in 2015
• In April of this year, the World Bank said that 60 per cent of Egyptians were “either poor or vulnerable”
• This comes amid IMF-backed reforms that have included a reduction in government fuel subsidies, the depreciation of the currency, and a 14 per cent value-added tax.

Looking ahead: At the peak of the uprising in spring 2011 that ended Mubarak’s rule there were claims of millions on the streets of Cairo; at present protesters are congregating in the thousands, according to reports. The protests are being described as the first significant demonstrations in Egypt since Sisi came to power despite gatherings of more than 10 people, without government approval, being banned since 2013.

• The danger for Sisi is the unpredictability of such movements – crack down too harshly and he may stimulate more protests, allow protests to occur and he could set off a chain reaction that will also encourage more protests.
• Michele Dunne, director of the Middle East Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said: “It’s not clear whether protests will escalate or fizzle right now. But if not this week, protests are likely to return in the coming weeks and months.”
• Egypt has the largest population of any Middle Eastern country and also controls the Suez Canal, a critical trade route to the global economy.
• Egyptian forces are fighting ISIS-linked fighters in the Sinai Peninsula in an ongoing insurgency and have also banned the Muslim Brotherhood ever since President Morsi was deposed in 2013.