BICOM

A controversial former Iranian President who denies the Holocaust and has threatened to destroy Israel has decided to stand again for election on May 19^th.

In a surprise move, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad will challenge the current President Hassan Rouhani.  Ahmadinejad was elected President in 2005 but left office in 2013 after reportedly falling out with Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, over his choice for Minister of Intelligence.

Ahmadinejad’s candidacy could still be prevented. The Guardian Council, a 12-member committee that approves candidates for election and vetoes those it deems unsuitable, will announce on April 26th who it will allow to run. Many analysts believe Ahmadinejad is not likely to make the cut, unless he can demonstrate significant support.

In September, Ayatollah Khamenei issued an opaque statement that he recommended a certain ‘unnamed candidate’ – thought to be Ahmadinejad – not seek office as it would create a “polarised situation” that would be “harmful for the county.”

The Guardian Council disqualifies hundreds of Presidential and Parliamentary candidates before each election on the grounds that they are not religious enough or their policy platform diverges from Iran’s revolutionary ideology. 197 people have registered as candidates in this election, including eight women. No woman has ever been approved as a candidate for the Iranian Presidency.

Iranian media are predicting that the Presidential race will end up as a contest between Hassan Rouhani and Ibrahim Raeesi, a former judicial official who runs the powerful Imam Reza charitable foundation in the holy city of Mashhad. Rouhani is believed to still have significant popular support and his campaign will focus on his success in lifting international sanctions after signing the JCPOA nuclear deal in July 2015 and the boost to the Iranian economy as a result of greater opportunities for trade and investment. Iranian businesses have complained that they still face significant hurdles making transactions with foreign companies. There is also a great deal of uncertainty surrounding the future of the nuclear deal that the Trump Administration has pledged to tightly enforce as well as punish future Iranian ballistic missile testing.