What’s happened: Israel’s Defence Minister said yesterday evening that the IDF would soon begin a ground operation in the southern Gaza city of Rafah.

• “The ground manoeuvre is the way to defeat Hamas,” he said. “We are continuing with that operation and we will also reach the places in which we haven’t fought yet, and especially the last centre of gravity that remains in Hamas’s hands, Rafah. Every terrorist who is hiding in Rafah needs to know that his end will be either surrender or death. There isn’t a third option.”
• Gallant also claimed that Hamas was close to full defeat in Khan Yunis, the southern city which has seen intense fighting for several weeks.
• “Hamas’s leadership, and Yahya Sinwar at its head, is in flight,” he said. “Sinwar has been moving from one hideout to another hideout. He has been unable to communicate with his surroundings and in the past number of days IDF troops have found significant material in places in which he had recently been and, thanks to which, we are improving our operation, [and] are deepening our hold on Hamas’s plans.”
• Prime Minister Netanyahu also told a Likud faction meeting yesterday that “our objective is total victory over Hamas. We will kill Hamas’s leadership. Therefore, we need to continue to act in all parts of the Gaza Strip. The war must not be ended before that. This will take time—months, and not years.”
• In pointed comments, Gallant also pressed for clarity on the ‘day after’ in Gaza. “The military act is bound up with the political act,” he said. “Only advancing a political alternative will guarantee the end of Hamas’s rule. No Israeli civilian control in the Gaza Strip will exist. Now is the time to make the correct decisions so that we might achieve the political objectives that we set and to allow [us] to emerge into a new space, in the course of which the circle of peace can be expanded at the expense of the circle of terrorism.”
• An airstrike on central Gaza’s Deir al-Balah overnight killed a Palestinian Islamic Jihad terrorist who participated in the attack on Nir Oz on October 7. The IDF said that during its operations in Khan Yunis over the last few days, 80 terrorists were captured, including several who had also participated on October 7.
• Four terrorists were also killed in Beit Hanoun, in the northern Gaza Strip, while trying to rebuild Hamas’s observation and intelligence-collecting capabilities in the area.
• Israeli officials have continued talks with Qatari and Egyptian counterparts in an effort to reach a hostage deal with Hamas. Hamas have still not formally responded to the proposals forged during the recent Paris negotiations, but is thought unlikely to reject the terms outright, but to demand significant amendments.
• Israeli media reports this morning suggest that ministers Gantz and Eisenkot have proposed that Israel temporarily suspend allowing humanitarian aid into the Gaza Strip until a new mechanism is set up to distribute aid to the population. The proposal came after the two were presented with information claiming that 60 percent of the aid currently entering the Strip – and all of the aid in Rafah – ends up Hamas’s hands.
• “Ten percent of the humanitarian aid making its way into the hands of Hamas is bad enough, so 60 percent truly is very bad,” said a senior Israeli official. “It means that over half of Gaza’s population is receiving its food from Hamas. This threatens all our military achievements and the objective of topping Hamas.”
• The IDF, however, distanced itself from the 60 percent statistic, a spokesperson saying that it “was not provided by IDF officers, and it is one [that is] unfamiliar [to the IDF] since it isn’t borne out by either intelligence or operational information.”

Context: Egypt has previously urged Israel not to conduct operations in Rafah, where four Hamas battalions are tasked with maintaining Hamas’s control over an area in which there are also significant smuggling routes.

• Egypt is fearful that fighting there could cause many of the 1.4 million Gazans sheltering in the city to flee over the border to the Egyptian Sinai.
• Cairo recently relayed very stern messages to Israel warning that any movement of Palestinian refugees into the Peninsula would jeopardise the peace treaty between the two countries.
• Israel is said to have informed Cairo that before commencing operations in Rafah, civilians will be evacuated to other parts of the Strip. According to the UN, Israeli evacuation orders in Gaza now extend to two thirds of the Strip, previously home to some 77 percent of its residents.
• Both countries have also reportedly considered the option of relocating the border crossing in Rafah to the Kerem Shalom area, placing it near the three-way Israel-Gaza-Egypt border.
• In another aspect of Israeli-Egyptian relations, Israeli media reports today that Egypt recently told Israel that it would be prepared to send police troops into Gaza after the war. According to that report, the Egyptians said they would only be willing to do so if asked by a Palestinian Authority (PA) it expects to control the Strip, and not by Israel.
• The US has long urged the Israeli political echelon to be clearer about its ‘day after’ plans, and has been explicit in favouring a “reformed” and technocratic PA assuming control.
• Israel, however, has not publicly supported such a role for Mahmoud Abbas’s government, and is wary of enabling an organisation which has not formally condemned the Hamas massacres and which continues to incite terror against Israelis through its ‘pay for slay’ policies.
• Hamas’s delayed response to the latest hostage proposal is thought to be caused partly by differences of opinion between its overseas political bureau and the Gazan leadership, with the latter thought to be more ready to accept a deal.
• It is anticipated that Hamas’s demanded amendments will include both a permanent ceasefire and Israeli withdrawal from Gaza and a much more imbalanced ratio of hostages freed to Palestinian security prisoners in Israeli jails released.
• Relating to this, Netanyahu said that “Hamas has demands that we won’t agree to” and that the ratio needed “to be similar to the previous agreement,” which saw three prisoners released for each hostage freed.
• With Netanyahu under pressure from far-right elements in his government not to conclude a hostage deal under such imbalanced terms, Opposition Chairman Yair Lapid once more reiterated his offer to temporarily support a Netanyahu government if Finance Minister Smotrich’s Religious Zionism party and National Security Minister Ben Gvir’s Jewish Power were to be removed.
• After a two-hour meeting with Netanyahu yesterday, Lapid said “I told the prime minister… if he needs a safety net of any kind from me—for us to join the government, from outside, in any way—he just needs to say so. Because the most important thing is to get the hostages back.”

Looking ahead: While Israel and the Paris negotiators await a formal Hamas response to the latest hostage proposal, US Secretary of State Blinken has begun his fifth regional visit since October 7.

• Yesterday, he visited Riyadh for talks with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. He will arrive in Cairo today seeking “an enduring end” to the war, and will conclude the trip with visits to both Qatar, Israel, and the West Bank.

Potential hostage deal: Hamas announced last night that it had received the latest proposal for a ceasefire and hostage release, but did not relay its response to any of the sides involved in the negotiations.

• A spokesman for the Qatari Foreign Ministry said that Israel had agreed to the proposal and that they also received initial agreement from Hamas, though no formal Hamas acceptance of the terms has happened yet.
• The Israeli Security Cabinet met last night to discuss the proposed deal, with a senior Israeli official estimating its chances of success at 50 percent.
• The Wall Street Journal reports that the proposal on the table would involve a three-stage process to return all 136 hostages, both living and dead, in exchange for a ceasefire in Gaza and the release of Palestinian prisoners in Israeli jails. The ratio of hostages freed to Palestinian prisoners released remains contentious, with Hamas said to be holding out for 150 prisoners released for each female soldier being held.
  • Stage one would see a six-week ceasefire observed in Gaza, during which Hamas would round up the hostages ready for release. It is expected that elderly and sick will be released in this round. Gazan residents will also be allowed to move freely around the Strip.
  • Stage two would witness the release of female soldiers held hostage, as well as an increase in humanitarian aid into Gaza and guarantees that hospitals, bakeries and water services will retain the ability to function.
  • Stage three would see the release of male soldiers and the bodies of dead hostages.

Israel-Egypt: Talks are ongoing between the two countries concerning the Philadelphi Corridor, the narrow strip running the full length of the Egypt-Gaza border.

• In a bid to prevent the smuggling of weapons from Egypt to terror groups in the Strip, Israel has proposed to secure the corridor with IDF troops, a move previously opposed by Egypt.
• Now, however, Israeli officials are briefing that the two sides are “nearing consent” on a “certain Israeli presence” in the corridor. This follows a meeting held this week between Shin Bet Director Bar and IDF Intelligence Director Maj. Gen. Haliva at Egyptian intelligence headquarters in Cairo, in which an alternative to troops on the ground was discussed, which would see “technological” measures installed above the Philadelphi Corridor on the Israeli side that would detect the presence of Palestinians or attempts to approach the corridor in order to reach Sinai or to smuggle weapons and military equipment to Gaza through tunnels.
• Israel is also understood to have held talks with a Persian Gulf state in a bid to persuade it to finance the construction of an underground barrier that would completely disconnect Gaza from Sinai.
• Agreement also seems to have been reached to allay Egyptian fears that fighting in the Rafah area, close to the Egypt-Gaza border, would prompt some of the million-odd Palestinian refugees in the area to flee into Egyptian territory. Israel is thought to have committed, for now, to avoiding military action there.

Context: A hostage deal of the type described continues to be vehemently opposed by elements within the Israeli coalition, most especially Finance Minister Smotrich and National Security Minister Ben Gvir. (For more details on the political manoeuvring see Israeli Media Summary below.)

• Hostage families have maintained a campaign to prioritise the captives’ release for several months. Yesterday, hundreds of protesters blocked Begin Boulevard in Tel Aviv, calling for their release. The protest saw clashes with police.
• In parallel, US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan met with Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer after having first met with representatives of the hostages’ families and speaking with Qatari Prime Minister Al Thani.
• Prime Minister Netanyahu and other senior ministers maintain that a hostage deal will not signal the end of Israel’s campaign in Gaza, and that Israel will not stop short of its stated war aim of the total defeat of Hamas. There are fears, however, that it will be difficult to resume intense fighting after a protracted ceasefire.
• Nonetheless, Israeli forces in the Strip have already been gradually reduced. At the height of the ground operation there were four divisions in the Gaza Strip. Six brigades now remain – two in the north and four in the south in Khan Yunis.

The Biden Doctrine?: The New York Times’ Thomas Friedman – a journalist close to the Biden Administration –  wrote yesterday that the president is considering “some form of US recognition of a demilitarised Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza Strip that would come into being only once Palestinians had developed a set of defined, credible institutions and security capabilities to ensure that this state was viable and that it could never threaten Israel.”

• Biden also yesterday signed an executive order imposing sanctions on Israeli West Bank settlers involved in violence against Palestinians.
• Four individuals have been targeted in the first round of sanctions, which include bans on entry to the US and on property and financial access in the country.
• In the order, Biden said: “The situation in the West Bank — in particular high levels of extremist settler violence, forced displacement of people and villages, and property destruction — has reached intolerable levels and constitutes a serious threat to the peace, security and stability.”
• In response, Netanyahu said that “the vast majority of residents of Judea and Samaria are law-abiding citizens, many of whom are fighting right now in active and reserve duty to protect Israel. Israel acts against all violators of the law in all places… and therefore there is no place for drastic steps on this matter.”
• The US previously imposed visa restrictions on those settlers proven to have engaged in violence in December 2023, but yesterday’s measures are the furthest any US president has gone in this regard.

Context: Earlier this week, US State Department spokesman Matt Miller confirmed that the administration is “actively pursuing the establishment of an independent Palestinian state – with real security guarantees for Israel, because we do believe that is the best way to bring about lasting peace and security for Israel, for Palestinians, and for the region.”

• “There has been no policy shift in the administration. We have made quite clear publicly that we support the establishment of an independent Palestinian state. That has been the policy of the United States for some time. It has been the policy of this administration.”
• “There are any number of sequencing of events that you could carry out to accomplish that objective… We look at any number of options. That’s part of the normal planning process. The vast majority of options never usually get implemented.”
• UK Foreign Secretary Cameron also hinted at potential UK recognition of Palestinian statehood earlier this week, saying “we have a responsibility there because we should be starting to set out what a Palestinian state would look like, what it would comprise, how it would work and crucially, looking at the issue, that as that happens, we with allies will look at the issue of recognising a Palestinian state, including at the United Nations. That could be one of the things that helps to make this process irreversible.”
• The recognition of Palestinian statehood prior to a negotiated agreement being reached between Israel and the Palestinians would upend a decades-long consensus amongst Israel’s allies that recognition is the culmination of a process, not a step along its way.
• It has generally been held that such moves surrender valuable political capital required in encouraging Palestinians to end their intransigence in future negotiations.
• Further, there have been fears that pre-emptive recognition risks provoking dangerous and potentially violent disappointment when they fail to shift on-the-ground realities.
• Prior to October 7, moves towards normalisation between Israel and Saudi Arabia were thought have been close to fruition, having been a major priority both of the Biden administration and the Netanyahu government. Part of the motivation of Hamas and its Iranian patron on October 7 was to scupper the process.
• Riyadh reportedly had significant demands of Washington to proceed with the deal, including assistance with a (purportedly civilian) nuclear programme, sales of advanced weapons, and closer ties between the two countries whose relations had grown frostier. Biden assumed office promising to ‘get tough’ with Saudi Arabia in the wake of the assassination of Jamal Khashoggi.

Looking ahead: A delegation representing Palestinian Islamic Jihad is also due to visit Cairo shortly to join the talks on a hostage release.

Photo credit: IDF Spokesperson’s Office

What’s happened: On Monday, Israel suffered its heaviest loses since the beginning of the ground offensive.

• The IDF Spokesperson’s Office announced this morning that 21 IDF reservists were killed in an incident inside the Gaza Strip yesterday.
• According to initial reports, the IDF soldiers were in the process of destroying buildings using mines, together with engineering troops. Two rocket-propelled grenades were fired, the first towards a tank, as a result of which two soldiers were killed. The second RPG was fired at one of the buildings that already had explosives inside. These then detonated, leading to the buildings collapsing.
• Through the night, rescue teams operated to extract injured soldiers and retrieve the bodies. In addition to the fatalities, seven soldiers were injured and transferred to hospital, two in serious condition, two moderate, and three light.
• The incident took place just 600 metres from the border fence on the Gaza side. The buildings designated for demolition were part of the plan to create a buffer zone and restore a sense of security for when Israelis can return to their homes so close to the fence.
• In a separate incident, three IDF officers were also killed yesterday in an intense fire fight between IDF troops and Hamas gunmen in Khan Yunis. Three more soldiers were seriously wounded.

Humanitarian Aid: Sunday saw a record high 260 humanitarian aid trucks enter the Gaza Strip, the most on any single day since the outset of the war. An additional 213 trucks went in yesterday.

• According to data provided by the Coordinator of Government Activities in the Territories Office, 9,923 aid trucks have entered the Gaza Strip so far in the war, delivering 182,670 tonnes of humanitarian aid. The total includes:
  • 5,586 trucks transporting 117,350 tonnes of food.
  • 1,440 trucks transporting 20,780 tonnes of shelter.
  • 1,143 trucks transporting 13,550 tonnes of medical supplies.
  • 947 trucks transporting 19,020 tonnes of water.
  • 807 trucks transporting 11,970 tonnes of other aid.

• Nonetheless, Yediot Ahronot suggests that “most of the humanitarian aid being delivered to the Gaza Strip isn’t reaching its intended recipients and has done little to help the civilian population,” with “Hamas officials who control the aid coming into Gaza… unmoved by the sight of hungry and cold children.”

Context: In total, 221 IDF soldiers have been killed since the beginning of the ground operation inside Gaza and a total of 555 IDF soldiers have been killed since Hamas launched its attack on October 7th.

• These announcements follow strict protocols. As with all fatalities, the immediate family members are notified before the deaths are made public. In addition, the immediate family notifies the wider family before the names are released to the media.
• Reports claim that Israel has presented a new potential hostage deal to Egyptian and Qatari mediators.
• The proposed deal would see Israel agree to pause fighting in the Gaza Strip for two months and to the release of a large number of Palestinian prisoners – including those sentenced for serious crimes – in exchange for the release of all of the hostages and the bodies of dead Israelis held in Gaza, with releases occurring in several stages.
• The first stage would see the release of the remaining women hostages, alongside men over 60 and those in poor health. Female soldiers, male soldiers, and those hostages serving in civilian security squads would be released in later stages, as would the bodies of those who have died.
• In total over 250 people were kidnapped on October 7th. 121 have so far been extricated, while 136 remain in captivity. Of those, it is estimated at least 27 are no longer alive.
• Alongside the hostage releases, Israel would agree to a fighting pause which would see an IDF redeployment in Gaza, away from major population centres, and the monitored return to their homes of displaced residents of Gaza City and the northern Gaza Strip.
• Meeting yesterday with hostages’ families, Prime Minister Netanyahu confirmed that Israel had presented a deal and was awaiting Hamas’s response.
• Netanyahu hinted that, in the meantime, the intensity of Israeli operations in Gaza would remain high, since his view is that the greater the military pressure on Hamas, the more likely it us that Hamas will accept the Israeli proposal.
• Netanyahu also claimed that no military operation to free the remaining hostages was currently on the table, and that, contrary to reports, there was uniformity of opinion on the hostage question within the war cabinet.
• Reports have recently claimed that Minister Gadi Eisenkot – who entered the War Cabinet alongside Minister Gantz – has advocated a greater priority placed on releasing hostages, even if it comes at the cost of limiting combat.
• Elsewhere, a small group of hostages’ relatives burst into a meeting being held by the Knesset Finance Committee yesterday.
• They held up placards addressed to MKs reading “You won’t sit here while they’re dying there,” and “You brought down a government over hametz, but not over this?” (The latter is a reference to the collapse of the Bennett-Lapid government in 2022.)
• Last night, around 200 people, including released hostages and their families, demonstrated near the Prime Minister’s Residence on Azza Street in Jerusalem, some spending the whole night there.

Looking ahead: In the latest US diplomatic efforts, US National Security Council Coordinator for the Middle East and North Africa Brett McGurk is in Cairo to advance a hostage deal. He is expected to proceed to Qatar.

• President Biden supports a temporary pause in fighting to secure a hostage release and the delivery of more humanitarian aid to Gaza.
• Israel’s war cabinet is expected to convene on Thursday to discuss this issue, with a delay caused by last night’s disaster in Gaza.

What’s happened: The IDF continue to operate deep in Khan Yunis, and have made advances in the south and west of the city.

• Defence Minister Gallant met with the families of hostages on Sunday and told them that as they advance in Khan Yunis, there are initial signs that reaching Hamas’s most sensitive areas is moving Israel closer to accomplishing the two supreme missions of the war.
• On Sunday, the IDF released footage of a tunnel where hostages had been held underneath Khan Yunis.
• In parallel, family members of the hostages set up a tent encampment outside the prime minister’s private home in Jerusalem. Gabriela Leimberg, who spent 53 days in captivity to Hamas, told the gathering, “Mr. Prime Minister, every day in captivity is hell. The soldiers and the hostages were abandoned on your watch. They are out of time. I ask you, rescue them and bring back all the bodies.”
• On Sunday Prime Minister Netanyahu said, “We are continuing the war on all fronts and in all sectors. We are not giving immunity to any terrorist: Not in Gaza, not in Lebanon, not in Syria and not anywhere. Whoever tries to harm us, we will harm him.”
• “Regarding our hostages, we have returned home – as of today – 110 of our hostages and we are obligated to returning all of them. This is one of the goals of the war and the military pressure is a necessary condition to achieving it.”
• “Hamas is demanding, in exchange for the release of our hostages, the end of the war, the withdrawal of our forces from Gaza, the release of the murders and rapists of the Nukhba and leaving Hamas in place. Were we to agree to this – our soldiers would have fallen in vain. Were we to agree to this – we would not be able to ensure the security of our citizens. We would be unable to safely restore the evacuees to their homes and the next October 7 would be only a question of time. I am not prepared to accept such a mortal blow to the security of Israel; therefore, we will not agree to this.”

Context: The Israeli government continues to insist that military pressure is the best way to secure the release of more hostages, but faces increased pressure from the family of the hostages, from the US, and from the political opposition.

• The tents erected in Jerusalem are the latest efforts to ratchet up the pressure by the families of the hostages. After over 100 days the campaign is evolving. Over the weekend around 2,000 people protested outside the prime minister’s home in Caesaria.
• On Thursday evening, seven protestors were detained after they blocked the main Tel Aviv highway – a tactic used by those campaigning against judicial reform last year.
• Netanyahu and his government are also facing growing pressure from the US to present a diplomatic vision for the ‘day after’.
• After three weeks of not speaking directly, Netanyahu said that he told President Biden over the weekend, “after we eliminate Hamas, there will no entity in Gaza that finances terrorism, educates for terrorism or sends terrorists. Gaza must be demilitarised, under Israel’s full security control. I will not compromise on full Israeli security control of all territory west of the Jordan River.”
• Netanyahu also declared, “My insistence is what has prevented, over the years, the establishment of a Palestinian state that would have constituted an existential danger to Israel. As long as I am Prime Minister, I will continue to strongly insist on this.”
• In the past, going back to his Bar Ilan speech in 2009, through to the Trump Peace Plan Netanyahu has cautiously accepted the principle of a demilitarised Palestinian State. Articulating such an acceptance now is harder due to the constraints of his hard right coalition partners.
• Behind the scenes, it is thought that Israel could be prepared to make a deal that entails a diplomatic arrangement and the release of terrorists from prison, but not members of Hamas’s elite Nukhba force, members of which committed the October 7 massacre.
• Despite international pressure, the IDF is not yet expected to withdraw from the Gaza Strip and will not let residents return to the northern Gaza Strip as long as the hostages are not returned.
• Only then can reconstruction efforts begin, Israel says, led by the pro-stability Arab states.
• Netanyahu’s reference to Lebanon and Syria comes as further attacks have been reported. According to Arab media sources, over the weekend five Iranian military officials from the IRGC  were killed in Damascus, alongside six Syrians. One of the Iranians, nicknamed Haji Sadek, had served as senior intelligence officer and in the past had been involved in targeting US assets in Syria.
• In addition, Lebanese sources reported a strike on a car near Tyre. The targets were also thought to be connected to the IRGC.
• Meanwhile, attacks from Lebanon into northern Israel have also continued, including an anti-tank missile that struck an empty home in Moshav Avivim, causing significant damage.
• To date, approximately 80,000 Israelis from northern communities are internally displaced due to Hezbollah’s rocket, mortar, drone, and anti-tank missile attacks from Lebanon since 7^th October. These attacks have killed six civilians and nine soldiers.
• Similarly, the IDF have continued to attack Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon, taking their overall casualties to 165 combatants.
• Meanwhile, the Israeli government acquiesced to another US demand and approved releasing tax funds to the Palestinian Authority (PA).
• However the security cabinet approved measures to ensure none of the money would reach Gaza. Instead, a new mechanism would see the money assigned to Gaza deposited in trust with a third country, Norway.  Both the US and Norway have committed not to pass it onto Gaza, nor via a loan. If the clause is broken, Finance Minister Smotrich has insisted that all money to the PA will be frozen.
• The Shin Bet and Defence Ministry supported the release of the funds in order to maintain stability in the West Bank and ensure the PA can survive.
• Despite last week’s agreement to allow medicine into Gaza, there is still no indication that the medicine reached the hostages.
• At Israel’s request, at least 45 hostages who suffer from chronic diseases were supposed to receive various medicines, including insulin, asthma inhalers, medicine for high blood pressure and heart conditions. The French Foreign Ministry who facilitated the deal said yesterday that it had no information about where the medicines were, aside from the fact that they are in Gaza.
• For the first time since the war began, the Labour Party will present a vote of no-confidence in the Knesset. Whilst it does not currently have the support even from all members of the opposition, it is a declaratory move indicating that, from the Labour Party’s perspective, the period of political grace is over.

Looking ahead: Mounting pressure from the US, Egypt and Qatar could result in a return to negotiations for a hostage release deal. However, it is difficult to see Israel accepting Hamas’s terms.

• According to the New York Times the US, the UK, and European officials are pressuring Israel to send humanitarian aid to Gaza via Israeli ports in order to alleviate the humanitarian crisis.