BICOM

What’s happened: Hamas Politburo Chair, Ismail Haniyeh, has called for Muslims to march on Al Aqsa on the first night of Ramadan this year while claiming “flexibility” on ongoing hostage negotiations with Israel.

• In a televised speech delivered in Beirut, Haniyeh claimed:
  • “The siege of Al-Aqsa and the siege of Gaza are one and the same”.
  • Hamas was “showing flexibility in ceasefire negotiations”.
  • It would not fall for US and Israeli “political traps”, and that it was ready to continue fighting if necessary.
• Haniyeh also called for the Iran-aligned “Axis of Resistance” members including Hezbollah, the Houthis, and various Iraqi Shia militias to escalate their attacks against Israel.

Context: Hamas continues to make the connection to Al Aqsa, (the Temple Mount) in an effort to encourage others to join their offensive against Israel. Despite ongoing attacks from Hezbollah in the north, in large this has not materialised.

• However, according to Channel 12 News it will be the Israeli war cabinet not National Security Minister Ben Gvir that will determine policy regarding access to the Temple Mount during Ramadan.
• The war cabinet are not expected to impose restrictions on Israeli Arabs access to the site. Instead they will allow the police to decide the number of worshippers who will be allowed into the compound based exclusively on space and security  considerations. Individual restrictions will only be imposed on the basis of intelligence, as was done in the past.
• Talks in Qatar have continued this week. If Hamas is genuinely showing  “flexibility” this could be seen as vindication of the Israeli government’s stance to increase the pressure on Hamas militarily to secure better terms to a deal.
• Reports in the Arab media has suggested that the sides have begun to discuss the practical details of a deal. For example, they have discussed the number of tents that are to be delivered to the Gaza Strip, how they will be brought in and where they will be pitched.
• For the first time, Hamas has indicated a willingness to consider allowing for a temporary ceasefire and internal redeployment of Israeli troops outside of the Gaza Strip’s main population centres in.
• Hamas’s previous insistence that the IDF fully withdraws from the Gaza Strip and agree to a permanent ceasefire had previously proven to be one of the most significant barriers to talks progressing given Israel’s stated war aims of destroying the group and bringing home all hostages captured on 7th October.
• The current proposed temporary ceasefire is intended to last for up to six weeks, and President Biden is understood to be optimistic that an agreement can be reached in time for the start of Ramadan.
• Hamas’s other terms are understood to include the IDF allowing internally displaced Gazans to return to their homes, increased aid provision, and the release of a number of high-profile Palestinian prisoners, many of whom are terror convicts.
• Hamas continues to demand the release of ‘heavyweight Palestinian prisoners’ guilty of murder, including Marwan Barghouti. Given Barghouti’s prominence and leadership of Fatah’s Tanzim during the Second Intifada, and the fact he is serving five life sentences, Israel is unlikely to agree to release him.
• Meanwhile, the IDF continues its combat operations in the Gaza Strip while maintaining a high level of readiness on its northern border in the face of escalation Hezbollah aggression.
• In recent statements, the IDF has announced its success in destroying “dozens of kilometres of Hamas terror tunnels in Gaza”, as well as how “terrorist cells” and “terrorist infrastructure” are being degraded and destroyed in Zaytun and Khan Yunis.
• In cooperation with Israel, the United Arab Emirates, Jordan, Egypt, France, and the USA have airdropped aid including food and medical equipment to Khan Yunis residents as well as the Jordanian Field Hospital.
• Israel continues to insist that there is no limit to the amount of aid that can enter Gaza.
• Hezbollah continues to launch attacks against northern Israeli communities and military bases. While sources close to the group claim that it would be willing to “immediately” honour and mirror a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas if one was reached, the US has also indicated a concern that “Israel will launch ground op against Hezbollah in the spring”.
• In parallel, relatives of hostages and their supporters are marching for a second day from the Gaza periphery to Jerusalem. The march is expected to take four days to complete and will culminate in a solidarity rally in the capital.

Looking ahead:  The Israeli delegation to Qatar is scheduled to return to Israel today.

• The war cabinet and the security cabinet will meet later today.
• There is hope that a truce agreement is reached before Ramadan begins which is expected on or around 10th March