BICOM

Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh would win Palestinian elections if they were held today, according to a new opinion poll conducted by the Palestinian Centre for Policy and Survey Research (PSR).

The poll, based on face-to-face interviews with 1270 adults in 127 randomly selected locations in the West Bank and Gaza, shows that Haniyeh would win with 49 per cent of the vote to Palestinian Authority (PA) President Mahmoud Abbas’s 42 per cent.

The PSR poll found that the last quarter of 2018 witnessed a significant increase in Hamas’s popularity in both the West Bank and the Gaza Strip. In the West Bank, Abbas’s popularity has fallen by five per cent in the last three months, whilst Haniyeh’s popularity remained stable at 41 per cent. In an election between Marwan Barghouti and Haniyeh, Barghouti would receive 55 per cent compared to Haniyeh’s 40 per cent.

Sixty-four per cent of Palestinians want President Abbas to resign and 32 per cent want him to remain in office. In the Gaza Strip 77 per cent of people want Abbas to resign. National Palestinian elections were last held in 2006 and have been repeatedly delayed.

The two-state solution remains the most favoured outcome to any peace negotiations with the Israelis, according to the poll. Forty-five per cent said they preferred two-states, whereas 22 per cent and 23 per cent said they prefer the one-state or another solution respectively. However, a majority of 63 per cent believes that the two-state solution is no longer practical or feasible due to the expansion of Israeli settlements while 35 per cent believe that the solution remains practical.

The poll also shows that whilst 34 per cent of Palestinians believe the most preferred way out of the current status quo is “reaching a peace agreement with Israel,” this figure has decreased from 40 per cent three months ago. Forty four per cent of people think that armed struggle is the most effective means of establishing a Palestinian state. Only 11 per cent prefer “waging a non-violent resistance” and 16 per cent prefer to keep the status quo.

Thirty Five per cent of West Bankers say that people can openly criticise the PA in their area without fear of retribution and 61 per cent say the opposite. In the Gaza Strip, 48 per cent say that people can openly criticise Hamas without fear of retribution and 50 per cent say the opposite. The perception of corruption in PA institutions is 80 per cent.