BICOM

Gaza Strip: As it continues its advances all across the Strip, the IDF is now thought to exercise “operational control” over Jabalya and Shajaiya in the north.

• In parallel, intense fighting continues in the south, especially in the key city of Khan Yunis, where Israel believes the Hamas leadership is now located, along with four of Hamas’s 24 battalions.
• By last night, troops had surrounded Khan Yunis and began to operate in its centre. The IDF said it had “launched a combined attack on the area of ​​the city of Khan Yunis, against the ‘centres of gravity’ of the Hamas terror organisation.”
• Troops captured Hamas strongholds, finding weapons and intelligence materials, and located around 30 tunnel shafts which were then destroyed during the ongoing battles, as well as a weapons depot inside a mosque.
• IDF Spokesman Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari said last night: “In the last 48 hours, in Jabalya, Shajaiya, and Khan Yunis, we breached the defence lines. The terrorists are coming out from underground and fighting our forces. And our forces are winning in close-quarters combat. They have the upper hand.”
• The IDF has announced the deaths in action of Staff Sgt. Amit Bonzel, 22, and Staff Sgt. Alemnew Emanuel Feleke, also 22. Their deaths bring the total suffered in the ground operation to 86.
• Amid dire humanitarian conditions in the Strip, thousands of Gazans fled Khan Yunis and headed for the Rafah area, some accusing Hamas of stealing civilian aid.
• Last night, the wider security cabinet endorsed the war cabinet’s recommendation to double the quantity of fuel allowed into the Gaza Strip daily to 120,000 litres. Finance Minister Smotrich and National Security Minister Ben Gvir voted against the motion.
• Also last night, Israel reacted angrily to UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres invoking Article 99 of the UN Charter to convene the UN Security Council in a bid to call for a ceasefire.
• Israeli Ambassador to the UN Gilad Erdan called Guterres’s action a “a new moral low,” while Foreign Minister Cohen wrote on X: “Guterres’ tenure is a danger to world peace. His request… constitutes support of the Hamas terrorist organisation and an endorsement of the murder of the elderly, the abduction of babies and the rape of women. Anyone who supports world peace must support the liberation of Gaza from Hamas.”

The north: Defence Minister Gallant met local leaders of northern border towns yesterday and presented two options for the estimated 80,000 displaced northern Israelis being able to return home.

• “There’s the option that we [Israel and Lebanon] come to a different agreement,” he said, “which might resemble Resolution 1701, through mediation by international actors. Our presence, our existence and our security  will be respected, and we will respect the other side.”
• “The second option is that we’ll be forced to do that by force. We don’t want war, but if we reach a situation in which we need to entrench security here, we won’t hesitate, just like we didn’t hesitate in the south.”
• An air raid siren sounded in Moshav Margaliot on the Lebanese border this morning.

Context: As fighting resumed after Hamas broke the ceasefire, Jabalya and Shajaiya remained the last Hamas strongholds to be suppressed in northern Gaza. They have long been considered some of the strongest Hamas positions, partly due to their close geographic location and dense urban concentration, close to the Israeli border.

• In Khan Yunis, the IDF is fighting close to the home of Hamas chief Yahya Sinwar, though he is thought to be hiding elsewhere – likely along with the rest of Hamas’s Gazan leadership somewhere in the Strip’s vast network of tunnels.
• Many of the 86 IDF casualties killed so far appear to have been attacked at close range, as Hamas fighters emerge from below ground to deploy rocket-propelled grenades and sniper fire before retreating below again.
• As it continues fighting in the south, Israel faces competing dilemmas. Operationally, achieving the war’s aims of the total defeat of Hamas in the whole Strip and rendering Gaza free from terrorist threat will take time.
• Against this, Israel is operating against the international diplomatic clock. As Israel Hayom’s Yoav Limor reports this morning: “Israeli officials realise that for a host of reasons—international pressure, the humanitarian crisis in Gaza, the state of Israel’s economy—Israel has about two or three weeks to complete the current intensive operation in Gaza before being forced to move on to another modus operandi.”
• The decision to allow more fuel into Gaza should be seen in this context, with the US thought to be linking support for continued Israeli action to the greater flow of humanitarian aid.
• US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan told reporters yesterday that “we have talked to Israel “about timetables. I don’t want to share that because Israel has already kind of telegraphed precisely the location of its ground operation and I don’t want to be the one telegraphing timetables.”
• UN Resolution 1701 was passed in 2006 following the Second Lebanon War. It called for “the deployment of Lebanese forces to Southern Lebanon, parallel withdrawal of Israeli forces behind the Blue Line, strengthening the UN force (UNIFIL) to facilitate the entry of Lebanese Forces in the region and the establishment of a demilitarised zone between the Blue Line and the Litani River.”
• It has been widely breached by Hezbollah, which continues to deploy beyond the Litani and its elite Radwan forces have established bases along the border.
• Reports have suggested that the US and the French have offered financial incentives to the Lebanese government to act to remove Hezbollah terrorists from the border area, while Amos Hochstein, the US official who brokered the 2022 Israel-Lebanon maritime agreement, is thought to be looking to pursue a similar deal on the land border.
• As soon as Hamas broke the ceasefire last Friday, Hezbollah resumed its attacks on northern Israel. Amid multiple attacks, 12 people were wounded when an anti-tank missile hit the border town of Beit Hillel on Sunday. Tuesday saw Hezbollah claim responsibility for at least nine attacks on northern Israel, including in Tel Hai, Shtula, and Kiryat Shmona.
• Despite its constant targeting of Israel since October 7^th, Hezbollah has not expanded the conflict in the manner Hamas wished. The assessment remains that the group, and its Iranian paymaster, do not see it as in their interests to engage in all-out war with Israel at this time, and have therefore restricted their attacks so far to close proximity to the border.
• On Tuesday, Israel took the unusual step of publicly saying it “regretted an incident” in which the Lebanese army suffered casualties. The IDF explained they had “acted in self-defence against a threat that was detected in a well-known launching ground and Hezbollah observation post.”

Looking ahead: UK Defence Secretary Grant Shapps has announced he is set to visit the region this week.

• His office said he would meet with Gallant to “address the current security situation and Israel’s next steps” and with Palestinian Authority Minister General Ziad Hab Al-Reeh, “to address the urgent need for measures to improve security for Palestinians in the West Bank.”
• “The UK has made clear,” a statement said, “that Israel has the right to defend itself against terror, restore its security and bring the hostages home, but it must abide by international humanitarian law and take all possible measures to protect civilians.”
• Sullivan is also set to arrive in the region this week, while it is also thought that a delegation of French political and security officials is expected to visit Israel in the coming days to discuss the Lebanese border issue.