BICOM

Gaza Strip: The IDF is now operating in four central areas of Al-Boureij, Al-Maghazi, Nuseirat and Deir al-Balah.

• All these areas include Hamas fighters with approximately 1000 Hamas operatives in Al-Boureij.
• In addition, the IDF continues to operate in the north and south of the Gaza Strip.
• IDF Chief of Staff Halevi gave an assessment on Tuesday that the IDF is close to concluding the: “dismantlement of Hamas’s battalions in the northern Gaza Strip. Now we are making a concerted effort in the southern Gaza Strip, Khan Yunis, the camps in the centre and so on. We are ratcheting up military pressure in various ways, with force and guile. That pressure will facilitate the attainment of the war’s objectives: dismantling Hamas and getting the hostages back.”
• The fighting continues to exact a heavy cost. Four IDF soldiers were killed on Tuesday night, which follows several fatalities over the last few days. Overall since the ground offensive began 164 soldiers have fallen with over 870 injured.
• The Palestinian fatalities have been far higher. According to Hamas figures, over 20,000 Gazans have been killed. The IDF estimates that this includes over 7,000 Hamas operatives. The Hamas Ministry of Health casualty number also does not distinguish between those killed by Israel and those by Hamas. Almost 2,000 Hamas fired rockets have fallen inside Gaza.
• Despite IDF operations, Hamas are still able to launch rockets into Israel. On Tuesday a rocket struck the Synagogue in Kibbutz Saad.
• This morning sirens sounded again in various communities in the Gaza periphery.

Iran: Iranian foreign minister threatens Israel following the assassination of a senior Revolutionary Guards officer in Damascus.

• Razi Mousavi was an Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) operative, with a rank of Brig. Gen. He was an important member of the Iranian military apparatus in Syria and had been close to Qasem Soleimani before the latter’s assassination by the US in January 2020.
• Mousavi was involved in arms smuggling operations from Iran, arms production in Syria and channeling money to Hezbollah and other Shiite militias. His assassination suggests Israel has escalated its battle against Iranian proxies to also target Iranian operatives themselves.
• Israel has been accused of killing Iranian officials in Syria before, whether in targeted assassination operations or in attacks on weapons’ storehouses and other targets. Monday’s strike seems to have been aimed at killing Mousavi himself and sending a deterring message to Iran.
• Separately, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) confirmed that Iran has returned to a rate of enriching to 60 per cent around 9 kg of uranium a month (previously 3 kg,). 60 per cent is close to weapons grade.

Lebanon: Hezbollah continues to launch rockets, mortars, drones and anti-tank missiles at both Israeli civilian and military targets.

• On Tuesday 9 IDF troops were wounded while helping an Israeli civilian who had been previously wounded by an anti-tank missile that was fired at the St. Mary’s Greek-Orthodox Church in the northern village of Iqrit. The IDF killed the terrorist who fired the anti-tank missile.
• Hezbollah attacks on Tuesday also included strikes on Moshav Dovev, Moshav Even Menachem and Kibbutz Adamit.
• According to Lebanese reports, three people were killed last night in an Israeli Air Force strike on a house in Bint Jbeil, understood to be home of a Hezbollah commander.
• Overall the Hezbollah have announced 129 fatalities of their operatives.
• This morning 18 rockets were fired towards Rosh Hanikra with 6 intercepted. In addition, 10 mortars and rockets were fired at IDF positions on Mount Dov.

Context: Defence Minister Gallant said yesterday that Israel is under attack on seven fronts and has responded in no fewer than six. He was referring to Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, the West Bank, Yemen and Iran.

• Iran is connected to all these fronts and although Israel has not formally claimed responsibility for the death of Mousavi, the targeted assassination of a senior IRGC has been perceived as a message to the Iranians.
• In the Israeli government’s calculus all these fronts need to be considered.
• Whilst the government’s priority remains dismantling Hamas inside Gaza, there are growing calls both internally and externally to address the day after fighting.  In the most recent war cabinet meeting earlier this week PM Netanyahu reportedly refused to discuss the plan to change the scope of IDF combat in the Gaza Strip.
• The next stage of the war is supposed to reduce the number of IDF troops in the Gaza Strip.
• Netanyahu’s top confidant Minister Dermer is in Washington to coordinate a plan for the next phase. The Biden administration favours a revitalised Palestinian Authority (PA), whilst Israel has rejected any possibility of Mahmoud Abbas’ PA being in charge of Gaza.
• Dermer is expected to discuss Israel’s plans to transition to a low-intensity war, which is may happen towards the end of January, as well as questions pertaining to the civil administration of Gaza in the months ahead.
• Dermer is also expected to raise Israel’s concerns about a shortfall in the supply of munitions for planes, and to ask the US to expedite arms shipments to Israel, especially so as to prepare for a possible escalation in hostilities along the northern border.
• According to Yediot Ahronot, IDF officials say they estimate that 20 per cent of Hamas’s military troops have been killed so far. While the paper suggests others have a higher estimate, but none talk about complete decimation. Most of Hamas’s top military officials have survived and there is strong speculation that they have deliberately placed Israeli hostages in their close proximity, a move which further complicates IDF plans.
• Although Hamas has lost most of its governmental strongholds, it hasn’t lost its control over the population. In a display of control earlier this week, Hamas policemen were seen on the streets of southern Gaza.
• Despite IDF’s current deployment across Gaza, it is yet to operate in the area of the Philadelphi Corridor on the southern border. This area is seen as crucial for disabling Hamas smuggling tunnels, but is highly sensitive due to the proximity of Egypt.
• The hostages issue remains prominent inside Israel. Relatives of the 129 people still in Hamas captivity continue to demonstrate and demand the government prioritises their release.
• On Monday, Hamas rejected a proposed Egyptian plan that would involve a ceasefire in exchange for the release of more hostages, and lead to a broader agreement involving a permanent ceasefire along with an overhaul of leadership in Gaza.

Looking ahead: Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Halevi cautioned yesterday, that the war “will continue for many months more, and we will use different methods so that the achievement is maintained over time.”

• In an effort to increase the supply of humanitarian aid, Israel has reached agreement in principle with Cyprus and the UK to establish a maritime corridor for supplying goods and equipment to the Gaza Strip in the future.