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IDF Military Intelligence chief predicts West Bank instability in 2017

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The head of the IDF’s Military Intelligence has warned that the coming year could bring an escalation of violence in the West Bank, but urged Israel to build relations with Sunni Arab powers.

Maj. Gen. Herzl Halevi was addressing Tel Aviv University’s Business-Academic Club, in what was planned as a closed address, but ended up reported in Haaretz. He predicted that uncertainty over who will succeed Palestinian Authority (PA) President Mahmoud Abbas could fuel instability in the West Bank.

Although Abbas is 81-years-old, there are no elections scheduled for his position and there is no deputy leader in place.

Halevi said that the question of the “day after” Abbas will lead to internal Palestinian power struggles, including with Hamas.

He added: “There will be many factors that undermine Abu Mazen’s [Abbas’] leadership and Hamas wants to make gains. The result will be a very challenging reality in Judea and Samaria [West Bank].”

Halevi also predicted that “new inventions will turn up” in which Palestinians attack Israel, speculating that the recent fires may be among them.

He said: “It will come in waves, and we need to be prepared.”

Turning to the wider, regional picture, Halevi gave reason for optimism over relations with the Gulf and other Sunni Arab states.

He said: “We have common interests with the Sunni countries… What we do with it is another question … but this is Israel’s great opportunity for the coming years.”

Halevi also addressed the ongoing civil war in Syria, saying that the prospects of an agreed end to hostilities “are low”. While ISIS may be weakening in Syria, Halevi warned that this meant an increase in strength for Iran and Hezbollah, which continues to build its capabilities against Israel.

He also predicted that President Hassan Rouhani will win Iran’s election next year and advised that Israel play “hard to get” in relations with Turkey, despite the recent rapprochement. Halevi noted a “process of religious extremism in Turkey” under President Recep Erdogan.