BICOM

What happened: Yesterday the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) successfully launched a second military satellite, the Noor 2, into orbit.

• Meanwhile, the White House yesterday confirmed the sides are “getting close” to reaching an agreement to return to the 2015 JCPOA nuclear agreement.
• The EU envoy to the talks, Enrique Mora, tweeted, “Just to clarify. There are no longer ‘expert level talks.’ Nor ‘formal meetings.’ It is time, in the next few days, for political decisions to end the #ViennaTalks. The rest is noise.”
• The latest delay relates to the new Russian demand that the US guarantee that any sanctions that Russia faces (over the Ukraine invasion) would not harm its trade with Iran.
• Yesterday the UK’s Ambassador to the Vienna, Corinne Kitsell, made a statement on behalf of the E3: “Iran has continued to advance its nuclear programme by developing its stockpile of enriched uranium and conducting activities that provide permanent and irreversible knowledge gains. Iran’s nuclear programme has never before been this advanced, and is exposing the international community to unprecedented levels of risk… In particular, Iran has nearly doubled its stockpile of Highly Enriched Uranium (HEU).”
• She continued, “Iran has no plausible civilian justification for 20 per cent and 60 per cent enrichment and the production of HEU is unprecedented for a state without a weapons programme. Accumulation of uranium enriched at 20 per cent and 60per cent is further reducing the time Iran would take to break out towards a first nuclear weapon.”
• She urged Iran:
  • To immediately cease all activity related to conversion of HEU and any enrichment above JCPOA limits.
  • Dispose of its stockpile of enriched uranium in excess of JCPOA limits.
  • Return enrichment capacities and R&D to agreed limits.
  • Stop all activities related to the production of uranium metal.
  • Restore full transparency and cooperation with the IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency).
• Also yesterday CIA Director William Burns told the US House Intelligence Committee, “we are mindful of the fact that the Iranian regime poses not only a nuclear or missile issue but also a threat across the Middle East and to our partners in the Middle East. Regardless of how negotiations go, those threats will continue.”

Context: The significance of the satellite launch is that it relies on the same technology that can also launch long range ballistic missiles, that could one day serve as the delivery system for a nuclear weapon.

• Israel has long criticised the original deal for allowing Iran to continue nuclear research, while the deal does not address Iran’s ballistic missile programme and ignores their expansive regional agenda.
• The main aim of the Iranians during the negotiations has been to obtain sanctions relief, that will be a windfall for the IRGC and their proxies. This includes $700 million of frozen Iranian funds around the world.
• Iran will be able to generate even more money from its oil sales once the sanctions are lifted.
• Last week a former US State Department official Gabriel Noroha revealed on twitter shocking details of the concessions the US are prepared to make.
• The contours of the anticipated deal include reducing Iran’s uranium enrichment to 5 per cent, moving all of the enriched uranium to a third country, while Iran’s advanced centrifuges will be put into storage.
• The IAEA’s latest assessment is that Iran has 33 kilograms of 60 per cent enriched uranium, which is two-thirds of the amount needed for a single nuclear bomb. They also have an additional three tons of enriched uranium on different levels, including 182 kg of uranium enriched to 20 per cent.
• Israel is also concerned about the proliferation on Iranian UAVs.
• Earlier this week Israel revealed that last year the IDF intercepted an Iranian drone that for the first time had attempted to deliver weapons to Gaza using UAVs.
• Since 2018, Iran has made four attempts to enter Israeli airspace with drones, three attempts were thwarted. Two weeks ago Hezbollah were able to penetrate Israeli airspace with a model aeroplane that reached the Sea of Galilee before returning to Lebanon without being shot down.
• Foreign Minister Yair Lapid met Secretary of State Antony Blinken in Latvia on Monday, although their talks focused on Russia – Ukraine, Lapid said afterwards, “The nuclear agreement which stands to be signed in Vienna is a bad and ineffective agreement. Israel isn’t obliged by it, and reserves the freedom to act in any way against the Iranian nuclear programme.”
• According to Syrian sources, on Monday Israel struck Iranian military targets in Syria for the first time since the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Yesterday, Iran said that two senior commanders were killed in the strike near Damascus.
• This was the seventh attack by Israel on Syria in 2022, underlining the importance of Israel maintaining its deconfliction mechanism with Russia.

Looking ahead: Following the latest strike in Syria the IDF is on a heightened state of alert in response to Iran’s threats to avenge the death of the two Iranian officers in the attack. IDF troops deployed along the northern border have been placed on a heightened state of alert, as have troops in intelligence units, the air defence units and the Israel Air Force.

• Iran and the IAEA have agreed to a three month extension to resolve the issue of uranium particles found at undeclared nuclear sites in Iran.  The IAEA expect to reach the conclusion by their next Board of Governors meeting on June 6.
• A return to the deal will mean a return to the same ‘sunset clauses’ which gradually remove all the restrictions placed on Iran. From next year the ban on Iran importing and exporting of missile related equipment and technology will expire.