BICOM

What happened: Iran has recorded its lowest turnout in a parliamentary election since 1979, in a sign of public anger toward the regime.

• According to official figures released on Sunday, 42.6 per cent of eligible voters voted last Friday. It was the first-time turnout dipped below the 50 per cent mark since the revolution. In the 2016 election, turnout was 62 per cent, while four years earlier, it was 66 per cent. Interior Minister Abdolreza Rahmani Fazli blamed the threat of coronavirus, bad weather, the recent protests and the shooting down of the Ukrainian passenger plane for the historic low turnout.
• According to numbers by the Ministry of interior, conservatives won 76.9 per cent of the 290 seats available, whilst independents and reformist make up 12.4 per cent and 6.9 per cent respectively. About half of the 16,000 candidates were disqualified by the Guardian Council. Among them were many reformists and moderates — including dozens of sitting lawmakers. It is expected that 17 women will be elected, the same figure as in the previous Parliament.
• Voter turnout in the capital, Tehran, was just 25.4 per cent, the lowest in the country, with conservatives loyal to Ayatollah Khamenei winning all 30 seats. The highest turnout was recorded in Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad Province, with 71 per cent.

Context: The 11th parliamentary election since the 1979 Islamic Revolution followed a surge in tensions between Tehran and Washington.

• Analysts believe one of the main reasons for the low turnout in Tehran was the public disillusionment following the November unrest that claimed up to 1,500 lives and the downing of a Ukrainian airliner which claimed 176 lives, at least 82 were Iranian citizens. In both cases the public were deeply annoyed about lack of transparency by the Iranian authorities. Critics in Iran had called on citizens to boycott the polls as a way of showing their opposition to what they say is widespread repression of human rights and intolerance of dissent.

• The spread of the coronavirus continues to worsen in Iran, with 43 confirmed cases and eight deaths – the highest death toll outside of China. According to the BBC, schools, universities and cultural centres across 14 provinces have been closed. Iraq, Pakistan, and Turkey have closed their borders with Iran, and Afghanistan has suspended air and road travel to and from Iran. There are reports that the death toll could be much higher and the Health Ministry has been severely criticised for its handling of the outbreak.
• Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who on Friday said voting was “a religious duty”, blamed the low turnout on the “negative propaganda” about the  coronavirus. The authorities kept polling stations open for an extra six hours to allow as many people as possible to vote.

Looking ahead: After four years with a more moderate president and parliament, arch-conservatives now control the Parliament for the first time since the end of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s presidency in 2013. The fierce infighting that characterises President Hassan Rouhani’s tenure is likely to ease, but it will come at the cost of public support for a political system already faced with outbreaks of dissent and unrest. The new parliament will have to deal with the same economic and social problems of the current legislature, but the inclusion of new lawmakers linked to the IRGC in the new parliament could further diminish tolerance for any kind of open debate around media freedom and civil society.