BICOM

What happened: Speaking in Tehran yesterday Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khameini said, “the West could not stop Iran from building nuclear weapons if Tehran wanted a pursue a nuclear arms programme.”

• He continued, “Tehran’s nuclear weapons is a lie and they (the West) know it. We do not want nuclear arms based on our religious beliefs.”
• He added that were Iran to go down that path, “they wouldn’t be able to prevent us from doing so, just like they couldn’t prevent our nuclear advancements so far.”
• Khameini also expressed openness to returning to a nuclear deal “There is nothing wrong with the agreement [with the West], but the infrastructure of our nuclear industry should not be touched.”
• During the weekly cabinet meeting yesterday, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu said he had spoken to US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and reiterated Israel’s position, that returning to the nuclear agreement with Iran will not stop the Iranian nuclear programme and will only enable Iran to channel funds to the terrorist organisations that it sponsors in the Middle East and around Israel’s borders.

Context: Recent reports have suggested that Iranian and American officials have held indirect talks in Oman.

• Axios has reported that White House Middle East coordinator Brett McGurk travelled to Oman secretly on May 8. During those talks, the US reiterated to the Islamic Republic that Iran would pay a significant price if it moves forward with 90% uranium enrichment. Two weeks ago, the Omani Sultan visited Iran and met with Khamenei.
• The IAEA recently announced it was closing two investigations over Iranian nuclear activity. One of these relates to the remains of enriched uranium discovered at unreported sites , and another concerning uranium enriched to the level of 83.7 per cent. Two other investigations remain open.
• IAEA Director General Raphael Grossi recently confirmed that Iran’s enriched uranium has grown by 25 per cent in the past three months, and now includes half a ton of uranium enriched to 20 per cent, and about 100 kilograms enriched to 60 per cent. This means Iran has 23 times the amount of enriched uranium than it had when the nuclear agreement was signed.
• US intelligence services believe that from the moment Iran begins the process of building a nuclear bomb, it would take about 12 days to enrich uranium to a high, military, level of 90 per cent.
• A senior Israeli official told Israel Hayom that “Iran knows that breaking out to 90% purity in uranium enrichment will result in an Israeli strike.” Israel has set this threshold and that Prime Minister Netanyahu made it clear this was his red line during his recent visits to European capitals.
• The Biden administration has reportedly discussed with European and Israeli partners an interim ‘less for less’ proposal with Iran that would include some sanctions relief in exchange for Iran freezing parts of its nuclear program. In its first stage, this would include the releasing of some $20 billion USD in Iranian assets from frozen bank accounts in South Korea, Iraq, and at the International Monetary Fund.
• Last week Iran’s official news agency IRNA announced it had successfully produced a hypersonic missile, named Fattah (Conqueror). “Today we feel that the deterrent power has been formed,” Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi said. Gen. Amir Ali Hajizadeh, the head of the paramilitary Revolutionary Guard’s aerospace programme, claimed the missile had a range of up to 870 miles. “There exists no system that can rival or counter this missile.”
• Following Iran’s recent diplomatic agreement with Saudi Arabia, Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian last week talked of a new world order towards multi-polarity. “In general, a new world order is beginning to take shape, away from the world which has one pole (America), and where world’s main players focus on multi-player and multi-polarity.”
• Amirabdollahian also announced that Iran had submitted a request to join BRICS (a diplomatic-economic group comprising Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) explaining that “Iran sits on one of the main route connecting East to West, and we are enjoying the advantages this brings” adding that “the policy of isolating Iran has failed.”

Looking ahead: In parallel to seeking a deal to slow down Iran’s move towards a bomb, the Biden Administration continues to try and advance normalisation between Saudi Arabia and Israel.

• During a press conference in Saudi Arabia, Blinken said that Saudi-Israeli normalisation was a priority for the Biden administration “and we will continue to work at it, to advance it in the days, weeks, and months ahead.” In response, Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan emphasised the importance of progress towards Israeli-Palestinian peace. “We believe that normalisation is in the interest of the region, that it would bring significant benefits to all, but without finding a pathway to peace for the Palestinian people any normalisation will have limited benefits”