BICOM

What happened: ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi killed himself after a US military raid in northwest Syria on Saturday.

• US President Donald Trump confirmed the operation yesterday during an announcement at the White House. He said Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi fled to a dead-end tunnel of the compound where he was hiding and detonated a suicide vest, killing himself and his three children. Trump said: “He died like a dog, he died like a coward. He was whimpering, screaming and crying.”
• At least 50 members of US special-operations forces targeted Baghdadi in a raid near Idlib, northwest Syria. According to US officials, the operation resulted from intelligence gathered in recent weeks by the Central Intelligence Agency, the military and US allies. Analysts were surprised that Baghdadi was in northern Syria, close to the Turkish border and not in Iraq.
• Trump said no US troops were killed or injured in the raid, but 11 children were rescued from the compound and a number of Baghdadi’s associates surrendered. The State Department had a $25m bounty on Baghdadi.
• The Turkish Defence Ministry tweeted Sunday: “Prior to the US Operation in Idlib Province of Syria last night, information exchange and coordination between the military authorities of both countries took place.”
• The Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) have also claimed that ISIS spokesman Abul-Hasan Al-Muhajir was killed in a separate US airstrike in northwest Syria on Sunday night. SDF General Commander Mazloum Abdi said: “Continuing the previous operation, terrorist Abu al-Hassan al-Muhajir, the right-hand man of Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi and an ISIS spokesman, was targeted in the village of Ain al-Baydah, near Jarablus, in direct coordination between SDF intelligence and the US military.”

Context: Baghdadi’s actual power and control had been greatly diminished since the US and coalition forces routed ISIS’s territorial ‘caliphate’ and its hold on large areas of territory in Iraq and Syria. Baghdadi’s survival, however, meant he remained symbolically powerful.

• Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab said: “The death of Baghdadi is a significant milestone in the coalition’s work to defeat ISIS but it is not the end of the threat. ISIS has imposed terrible suffering on innocent civilians. The UK will continue to work with our international partners to bring this to an end.”
• Baghdadi had been reported killed several times before, including in announcements by Iraq and Russia. He was believed to have been hiding in the desert near the Syria-Iraq border. His last video appearance was in April 2019, a month after coalition forces declared the defeat of the last remaining stronghold the group held in the Syrian city of Baghouz. Last month an audio message from Baghdadi emerged in which he called on followers to redouble their efforts to further the mission of ISIS.
• ISIS have reportedly appointed Abdullah Qardash, also known as Hajji Abdullah al-Afari, as its new leader. He was chosen by Baghdadi in August to run the group’s “Muslim affairs,” according to ISIS’ official Amaq news outlet.

Looking ahead: Experts have cautioned whether the killing of Baghdadi represents the defeat of the group or its violent ideology. ICSR Senior Research Fellow Charlie Winter says that Baghdadi’s death will unlikely have a strategic impact, as organisations like ISIS have strong bureaucracies in place and can still operate, even thrive, after a death of a leader. However, International Crisis Group expert Sam Heller says Baghdadi’s death could impact the group’s sway over its global constituency of supporters. ISIS rival, al-Qaeda, will likely benefit from Baghdadi’s death as it will be able to reinforce its control over large parts of Idlib with a vulnerable ISIS.