BICOM

What’s happened: Coinciding with the six month anniversary since the October 7^th Hamas massacre, the IDF has pulled most of its forces out of the southern Gaza Strip.

• A single IDF infantry brigade remains deployed along the east-west corridor, bisecting the Strip and preventing access to the north.
• Defence Minister Gallant said, “The withdrawal of troops from Khan Younis was carried out once Hamas ceased to exist as a military framework in the city… The achievements made by the IDF’s Division 98 and its units, are extremely impressive. They have eliminated terrorists and destroyed terror targets including warehouses, weapons, headquarters, communication centres and more. Their activities enabled the dismantling of Hamas as a functioning military unit in this area.”
• “Our forces are going to prepare for their follow-up missions. We saw examples of such missions in Shifa, and [will see] such missions in the Rafah area. We will reach a point when Hamas no longer controls the Gaza strip and does not function as a military framework that poses a threat to the citizens of the State of Israel.”
• In parallel, the Iead Israeli negotiators, Mossad Director David Barnea, Shin Bet Director Ronen Bar and Maj. Gen. (res.) Nitzan Alon are in Cairo for renewed negotiations to reach a deal for the release of some of the hostages.
• It is understood that the war cabinet has expanded the mandate given to the negotiators.
• Meanwhile, public pressure on the government continues, with large protests taking place over the weekend. On Sunday night, several thousand people gathered outside the Knesset (despite it being in recess) and called on the government to immediately reach a deal.

Context: At the height of the military operation there were 20 IDF brigades (around 35,000 troops) operating inside the Gaza Strip, now one remains (a few hundred).

• The withdrawal of the 98^th Division effectively ends the four month operation in the southern city of Khan Yunis.
• However, forces are expected to re-enter and carry out targeted operations based on intelligence and operational needs.
• According to the IDF, the decision was made having completed its bank of targets identified by their intelligence.
• Others are speculating that it was due to US pressure and also partly meets Hamas’s demands and may be connected to the negotiations for a hostage release in Cairo. For more analysis of the withdrawal and its implications, see Israeli Media Summary below.
• Prior to the withdrawal over the weekend, four IDF soldiers were killed in an ambush in the southern Gaza Strip when terrorists emerged from a tunnel shaft and shot the soldiers at close range. Three soldiers were killed instantly; the fourth was wounded and later died of his wounds. The terrorists disappeared back into the shaft, but the soldiers chasing them did not enter it because they identified IEDs that had been placed at the entrance.
• 260 soldiers have been killed since the beginning of the ground operation, over 3,000 have been injured.
• On Friday, the Commando Brigade retrieved the body of the one of the hostages, Elad Katzir, from the area of Khan Yunis. Elad was kidnapped from Kibbutz Nir Oz by terrorists along with his mother, Hanna, who was released in November.
• This leaves 133 hostages held in captivity, with the estimated fear that only half are still alive.
• The basic formula for a deal presented during the talks is thought to include Hamas freeing about 40 Israelis – women, the elderly, and ill or wounded in exchange for several hundred Palestinian prisoners in Israel and a limited return of Gazans to the north of the Strip. This would be alongside a temporary ceasefire, during which further talks would be held.
• The IDF released updated data on humanitarian aid that has entered into Gaza since the beginning of the war, which has included:
  • 272,000 tons of food
  • 44,190 tons of shelter equipment
  • 29,260 tons of water
  • 20, 310 tons of medical supplies
  • 23,090 tons of mixed equipment
  • 216 tanks of fuel, and 429 tanks of cooking gas.

Looking ahead: The redeployment will now facilitate Gazans who fled to Rafah to be able to return to Khan Yunis.

• According to Israeli officials, an operation in Rafah is still on the agenda with the removal of the civilian population seen as a prerequisite of a ground incursion.
• A Rafah operation is seen as essential for four reasons:
  • To engage, destroy, and dismantle the remaining four (out of 24) of the Hamas brigades, thereby removing the last bastions of Hamas military structure.
  • To block the smuggling routes from Egypt, which is crucial to preventing the re-armament of the Strip.
  • To continue to hunt down the Hamas leadership which, having evaded Israeli forces elsewhere, are now seemingly underneath Rafah.
  • To increase to the pressure on Hamas to soften their demands over the hostages negotiations. There is also a chance that the operation could allow for further rescue missions.
• Due to the sensitivity, any major military operation into Rafah will likely need to be coordinated with the US and Egypt.
• In parallel, there is cautious optimism that the negotiators for a hostage release and prisoner exchange will reach an agreement, with the Hamas delegation expected to return to Cairo with answers later this week.