BICOM

What happened: Mossad Director David Barnea gave a rare speech yesterday at the Institute for Counter-Terrorism (ICT) at Reichman University, where he focused on Iranian state-sponsored terrorism.

• Barnea listed five factors that have boosted Iranian self-confidence:
  • The assistance it has provided Russia, particularly selling them UAVs.
  • The understandings Iran has reached with Saudi Arabia. Though in Barnea’s view, “these are not strategic agreements. They constitute a marriage of convenience that will fall apart before too long.”
  • A year into the domestic “hijab protests”, the regime has survived.
  • Iran’s increased sale of oil, mainly to China, which is improving Iran’s balance of payments.
  • Iran’s success in hostage diplomacy.
• Barnea revealed that in the last year the Mossad has, alongside international partners, prevented 27 Iranian led attacks against Israel and Jewish targets worldwide. He later gave examples of foiled attacks in Tanzania, Greece, Cyprus and Georgia.
• Ahead of the Jewish High Holidays Barnea warned, “any harm done to any Israeli or Jew in any way whatsoever, and I mean in any way whatsoever, via proxy or Iranian alike, will elicit a response against the Iranians who dispatched the terrorists and the policy makers who authorised the terror units to carry out the plots, from the bottom all the way up to the top. I mean what I say. The price will be exacted… deep inside Iran, in the heart of Tehran.”
• He continued, “this is state-sponsored terror… We are talking about a political directive handed down by the Supreme Leader. The funding comes from the state coffers, and planning and execution are done by national security and intelligence bodies.”
• He further highlighted the regime’s “use of terror in four arenas: on the home front, on the regional and international stages, and on the seas.”
• Relating to “hostage diplomacy”, Barnea accused Iran of, “cynically exploiting the detention of innocent foreign citizens for political and financial extortion or to improve its bargaining position in negotiations with the international community.”
• He added: “history has shown the world that appeasing aggression encourages further aggression and indeed escalation. Increased Iranian self-confidence will lead to growing aggression and terror.”
• He also related to Iran’s nuclear programme, warning, “the international community must not accede to a situation in which what separates Iran from military-grade enrichment is a decision alone.”
• In his conclusion, he said, the “international community must stand firm against Iran, refuse to remain silent in the face of its negative conduct, and act to restrain it. We must use a variety of tools and methods against its nuclear programme, its regional policies, and its terror activity.”

Context: His two key messages, in light of the ongoing threat  of terrorism, were a warning to the Iranian leadership that if they dare to attack soft Israeli or Jewish targets abroad they will be held directly accountable and there will be a response “in the heart of Tehran.”

• Secondly, the concern over the Russian-Iranian axis. There is speculation that in the future Iran could benefit from advanced Russian weapons like hypersonic missiles or advance MiG-35 fighter jets – these would pose a new threat to Israel.
• Barnea’s reference to hostage diplomacy refers to the recent release of US citizens held in Iran which led to the unfreezing of $6 Billion of Iranian assets held by South Korea.
• On the nuclear front, this week the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) is expected to release its latest report that Iran’s stockpile of uranium enriched at 60 percent purity is continuing to expand.
• There is concern that as a result of Israel’s internal conflicts there has been an erosion of Israeli deterrence.
• At the end of his speech Barnea made a reference to the domestic divides in Israeli society. He said, “we are a covert intelligence organisation in the service of a Jewish democratic state that has operated since its inception according to a clear set of values, and will continue to do so.”
• Whilst Israeli deterrence is vital, only a united front with the US – including the tangible threat of US action – is likely to substantively change Iranian behaviour.

Looking ahead: The Mossad and the wider Israeli security establishment remain on high alert over terror warnings both inside Israel and around the world.

• Foreign Secretary James Cleverly is visiting Israel this week, where he is also expected to address the ICT conference and relate to the Iranian threat. He will also accuse Iran of “enabling terrorism” through its support of Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad.
• In a statement ahead of the visit Cleverly said: “the UK and Israel work closely together to keep our people safe,” whilst committing, “to renew our close security partnership, in the face of unacceptable threats from the Iranian regime.”
• During the two-day visit, the Foreign Secretary will also meet with Prime Minister Netanyahu, Foreign Minister Eli Cohen, as well as Palestinian Authority Prime Minister Mohammed Shtayyeh.
• Barnea also highlighted that next month the embargo preventing Iran from importing missiles comes to an end. He warned, “It is clear that Iran will take advantage of this to rapidly and inexpensively procure everything it needs to manufacture ever larger quantities of increasingly high quality missiles and UAVs.”