BICOM

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas are scheduled to address the United Nations General Assembly in New York today. The speeches will take place this afternoon, with Abbas delivering his address first. Last minute Quartet efforts are still under way, according to media sources, to find a formula which will prevent Abbas from proceeding with his plan to present the Palestinian bid for recognition of a declaration of statehood to the Security Council. It appears, however, that Abbas is determined to go ahead with the bid.

US President Barack Obama has made clear that if the bid is presented for a vote in the Security Council, the US will use its veto if necessary to ensure that it does not pass. But while it now seems clear that the bid will be presented to the Security Council, much uncertainty remains regarding when it will be voted on, and the exact procedure by which this will be carried out. A report in Ynetnews today contends that even UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon is uncertain regarding the next steps.

The French are continuing to promote a proposal set out by President Sarkozy in his UN speech on Wednesday, where the Palestinians would receive the status of non-member state at the General Assembly in return for dropping their approach to the Security Council and returning to direct talks with Israel. No final decision has been taken on the French proposal by the UK, but Prime Minister David Cameron in his speech yesterday appeared to distance himself away from Sarkozy’s initiative.

The content of the speeches given by both Netanyahu and Abbas today may provide an indication for finding the terms of reference for a return to negotiations. In addition, Abbas’s speech may offer clues regarding the Palestinian strategy in the coming weeks, and in particular the extent to which the Palestinians may be willing to see a delay of the Security Council vote on the statehood bid, which would open up the possibility of renewed diplomacy.

Netanyahu is expected to repeat his call on the Palestinians to re-enter negotiations without preconditions. According to Israeli media reports this morning, Netanyahu is also likely to focus on the need for strict security arrangements to underpin any diplomatic process. He may also choose to use the UN forum to offer criticism of the PA’s strategy of unilateralism, which he is likely to characterise as an obstruction to the chances for progress toward peace.