BICOM

What’s happening: The Knesset is in the midst of a marathon session as it tries to pass four pieces of legislation in the next few days.

• There are four bills being debated in Knesset committees and being prepared for their second and third readings.
  • The first relates to the expansion of powers over the police for designated National Security minister Itamar Ben Gvir. Among the expanded powers, he wants more direct control over police operations and oversight of the police commissioner.
  • Secondly, an amendment to Basic Law: Government, to allow Shas leader Aryeh Deri to serve as minister (despite being convicted last year on tax offences). The new amendment will make a distinction between a suspended prison service (that Deri received last year) and serving prison time (that happened to Deri in the past).
  • The third change is also to the Basic Law: Government. It will move control over the Civil Administration (in the West Bank) and the Coordinator of Government Activities in the Territories from the ministry of defence to the leader of the Religious Zionist Party Bezalel Smotrich.
  • The fourth bill will repeal the clause in the Knesset law that allows four MKs to splinter off from an existing faction. This clause was changed by the previous government to try (unsuccessfully) to facilitate a split within the Likud. The repeal reverts to the previous situation that requires one-third of a party to split in order to form its own faction. 

Outstanding issues:

• Netanyahu is keen for the fourth bill to pass before he allocates ministerial portfolios and other positions to his Likud colleagues, lest those unsatisfied attempt a rebellion.
• Itamar Ben-Gvir is still demanding veto power in the Knesset Constitution, Law and Justice Committee, but the Likud is opposed.
• One issue on which Ben-Gvir could back down relates to ministerial oversight of the Police regarding criminal prosecution. The current compromise suggests the minister would have the power to determine which types of cases will be investigated, but not to interfere in specific cases.
• Furthermore, this morning a moderated version of the Ben Gvir bill proposed that the minister will determine policy on investigations, including how long they will take, but only after first consulting with the police commissioner and the attorney general.
• Ben Gvir has also reportedly agreed to insert a clause that stipulates that the police commissioner is the supreme commander, (but still subordinate to the minister).
• Among other outstanding issues is Ben Gvir’s demand to give soldiers and police officers immunity for action taken during terrorist attacks.
• Ben Gvir is also seeking revision of the rules of engagement used by the IDF and the police.
• It appears Netanyahu is waiting to the very last moment to distribute ministerial portfolios and other positions to his own party colleagues. There is ongoing concern within his party that the coalition partners have already extracted too many concessions. One example is the Education Ministry, once seen as one of the most important positions. This time around it appears less appealing since various departments have been redistributed as part of the coalition deals.
• Meanwhile, some of the most controversial proposals are expected to only have a vague commitment in the coalition agreement. For example, a new military draft bill, which places the Ultra-orthodox at odds with the Likud, will only be negotiated after the new government is formed.
• Similarly, judicial reform and an ‘override clause’ are expected to only be discussed after the new government is sworn in. Bezalel Smotrich is still demanding an explicit promise to limit the authority of the judiciary. Netanyahu prefers to only make a vague commitment and wait a few months before moving forward.
• However, if the legal establishment tries to reject one of the bills currently being prepared, for example, the Deri law, this could precipitate a constitutional crisis.

Looking ahead: Netanyahu received a ten day extension of his mandate, which formally expires at midnight Tuesday. Though technically he can ask the president for an additional four-day extension.

• Once Netanyahu formally updates the president that he has a government, the Knesset must convene a vote within seven days to swear in the new government.
• They also need to publish the coalition agreements 48 hours ahead of the vote.
• In parallel, Netanyahu hopes to have all of the planned legislation completed by the middle of next week.