1. Several incidents yesterday signalled a ratcheting up of tensions between Israel and Hezbollah on the northern border and an escalation of military actions on both sides. First, Hezbollah shot down an Israeli Air Force Elbit Hermes 450 drone over the area of Nabatieh, in southern Lebanon. In response, Israel struck Hezbollah targets in the north-east Lebanese city of Baalbek, a key Hezbollah stronghold located approximately 100 kilometres from Israel’s northern border. The strike is therefore the deepest inside Lebanon Israel has conducted in many years. The IDF also confirmed it had killed Hassan Hussein Salami, a senior Hezbollah commander, in an airstrike in southern Lebanon. Hezbollah, in turn, fired a barrage of 60 Katyusha rockets at the Golan Heights. There were no reports of injuries. This morning, Hezbollah fired over 40 rockets at the Upper Galilee, with sirens sounding in Zivon, Sassa, Safsufa, and Dovev. Hezbollah announced that these rockets were targeted at the Mount Meron base. Also this morning, Lebanese media report strikes on several southern Lebanese towns, some as far as 30 kilometres from the border.

2. President Biden said yesterday that he hoped a ceasefire in Gaza would be reached by next Monday. An Israeli delegation arrived in Qatar last night to continue hostage/ceasefire negotiations, but Israeli officials briefed the media in less optimistic terms. The proposals on the table would see an initial pause in fighting of a month and a half, during which some 40 of the remaining hostages would be released. In parallel, a number of Palestinian security prisoners would be released from Israeli jails. Israeli media reports today have suggested that this initial pause leading to a longer-term ceasefire should not be ruled out, but that Hamas was balking at a prerequisite for such an arrangement: that its foothold in Gaza end and the Strip be demilitarised. The Israeli War Cabinet yesterday discussed for the first time the details of a potential ground operation in Rafah, Hamas’s last remaining Gazan stronghold.

3. Israel’s Channel 14 violated a Military Censors Office gag order on Sunday evening in order to level further allegations that Israel’s security establishment missed warning signs over October 7^th. The report alleged that at midnight on the night before Hamas began its massacre, information that Hamas terrorists had activated Israeli phone SIM cards was received by Israeli intelligence officials. The IDF acknowledges that such intelligence was received, but says that the channel’s claim of 1,000 SIM cards activated simultaneously is “false and far from reality.” The practice of installing Israeli SIMs was common to previous Hamas training drills, including in the months prior. In the context of the prevailing assessment that Hamas was deterred from large-scale conflict, it was not thought of huge significance on this occasion.

4. Voting in municipal Israeli elections began at 7.00 this morning. The ballot had been delayed four months because of the war, and will be delayed another nine months in 11 local authorities whose citizens have been evacuated. Turnout is expected to be low, with voters’ minds concentrated on the war. With a significant portion of the electorate voting by absentee ballot due to military service, the final results could come as late as March 3^rd. Jerusalem Mayor Leon is expected to comfortably retain his position, while long-time Tel Aviv Mayor Huldai is also expected to prevail.

5. In a move linked to US demands that it reform, Palestinian Authority (PA) Prime Minister Shtayyeh yesterday submitted his resignation to President Abbas. The Biden Administration, which has pushed for a reformed PA to play a leading role in a post-Hamas Gaza, called it a “positive and important step toward achieving a reunited Gaza and West Bank under the Palestinian Authority.” In his remarks to the PA cabinet, Shtayyeh said the immediate future would “require new governmental and political arrangements that take into account the emerging reality in the Gaza Strip, the national unity talks, and the urgent need for an inter-Palestinian consensus.” In addition, it would require “the extension of the Authority’s authority over the entire land, Palestine.” Abbas is thought likely to ask Mohammad Mustafa, chairman of the Palestine Investment Fund, to serve as the next prime minister, though the US, Emirati, and Saudi preference is thought to be former Prime Minister Salam Fayyad, who previously initiated a reformist agenda.

6. Responding to petitions, the High Court yesterday ordered the government to explain why it should not annul its resolution of June 2023 instructing the IDF not to draft ultra-Orthodox men into military service. The case is being heard against the backdrop of the IDF’s plan to extend the service time of conscripts and reservists, in the light of the demands placed on the army by fighting on multiple fronts. The IDF recently announced that over the last year, 66,000 young ultra-Orthodox men had received a deferral from service – a record high. Some 540 of these opted to enlist in the wake of October 7^th and the war in Gaza.  Ministers Gantz and Eisenkot yesterday presented a plan calling for all segments of Israeli society to serve. “All the people of Israel, all parts of society should take part in the right to serve our country. The challenges are enormous, and you cannot look those who are serving in the eyes and tell them that things will go on as they have,” Gantz said.

What’s happened: Following the success of initial talks with US, Egyptian, and Qatari mediators in Paris, an Israeli team has been dispatched to Qatar to continue negotiations which could lead to the release of hostages held in the Gaza Strip and a temporary ceasefire between Israel and Hamas.

• Senior Israeli officials have expressed cautious optimism that a deal can be reached. One said “at the end of the day, we don’t know what is happening inside Sinwar’s head. It will take a lot of time until the deal ripens, but the direction is good.”
• Prime Minister Netanyahu said “We’re all working on it… I can’t tell you if we’ll have it. But if Hamas goes down from its delusional claims… then we’ll have the progress that we all want… it’s too soon to say if they’ve abandoned [their ‘delusional’ demands].”
• In Paris, Israel, US, and Arab mediators agreed an outline for a potential hostage deal which is now subject to Hamas’s approval.
• If successful, this deal would likely allow for a six week ceasefire, the release of 40 hostages including women, children, female soldiers, the elderly and unwell.
• It would also see Israel release hundreds of Palestinians convicted for terrorist offences currently held in Israeli prisons.
• Hamas is understood to have somewhat softened its previous positions, and has indicated that it is open to the prospect of a temporary ceasefire and redeployment of the IDF within the Gaza Strip rather than a permanent cessation of hostilities and immediate withdrawal.
• However, some of its demands will likely be more difficult for Israel to accept. These include allowing internally displaced Gazans to return home (especially in the north of the Gaza Strip), and the number of Palestinian prisoners released in exchange for Israeli hostages.
• According to Israeli media, Prime Minister Netanyahu is also understood to be demanding that “high-level Palestinian security prisoners” released in a potential deal do not return to the Palestinian Territories but are instead deported to Qatar. Doha’s position on this proposal is unclear.
• There are also reports that Israel is not prepared to advance on the parameters of a deal until it first receives a list specifying which of the 130 hostages held in Gaza since October are still alive.

Context: Although signs of progress are encouraging, a hostage deal remains a distance away.

• Israeli negotiators have been granted a limited mandate while in Doha, and it is understood that these rounds of talks will focus on the technical aspects of a potential deal. In the event of their success, it is likely that their primarily role will be to pave the way for more substantial talks with Hamas.
• Israeli Finance Minister Smotrich has opposed this proposed deal, branding it as “delusional”, and indicating that he would vote against it as its terms are too favourable for Hamas.
• The demand that released high-security Palestinian prisoners be exiled to Qatar rather than return to the Palestinian Territories is also a potential stumbling block in negotiations.
• The IDF continues to set the conditions for its likely impending assault on Rafah, Hamas’s final remaining stronghold in the Gaza Strip. It has presented its evacuation plan for civilians to Israel’s war cabinet, as well as well as an overview of its operational strategy.
• While defeating Hamas in Rafah is a critical war objective for the IDF, Netanyahu has indicated that an assault on the southern Gazan city could be delayed if a hostage deal and truce is reached.
• He said “if we have a deal, it’ll be delayed somewhat. But it’ll happen. If we don’t have a deal, we’ll do it anyway. It has to be done. Because total victory is our goal, and total victory is within reach. Not months away, weeks away once we begin the operation,”
• Combat operations continue across the Gaza Strip, with the IDF’s main efforts remaining in Khan Yunis and north of Gaza City. An operation to degrade and destroy Hamas in the Zeitoun neighbourhood of Gaza City is ongoing, and other similar actions are highly likely.
• Five Israeli troops were seriously wounded in three separate incidents in southern and northern Gaza yesterday: an IED attack, an anti-tank missile attack and a firefight with terrorists.
• The Gaza Strip’s humanitarian situation continues to deteriorate significantly. Israel’s war cabinet has authorised the direct entry of aid into the northern Gaza Strip, while the UK and Jordan have airdropped aid to the Tal al-Hawa Hospital. UNRWA’s chief, Philippe Lazzarini, has said that his agency has reached “breaking point” amid a budgetary shortfall of $450m.
• Meanwhile, Israel continues to fight on multiple fronts:
  • In the past week, Hezbollah has fired numerous rockets and an anti-tank missile at northern Israeli communities, as well as launched a drone which was shot down by the Israeli Air Force. The IDF has launched its own strikes into Lebanon, and two Hezbollah operatives have been killed in an explosion in Qusayr close to the Lebanese-Syrian border. Israel has declined to comment on this incident.
  • Israel’s Defence Minister, Yoav Gallant, has warned that the IDF will increase its strikes against Hezbollah in response to its daily attacks on northern Israeli communities, even during a truce with Hamas in Gaza.
  • The IDF has also confirmed that Hezbollah successfully shot down one of its drones over Nabatieh in southern Lebanon.

Looking ahead: Israeli negotiators will begin laying the groundwork for a potential hostage exchange and ceasefire deal. While unconfirmed, reaching such an agreement before Ramadan would be highly desirable, and it is a realistic possibility that significant progress is made in Doha over the next week.

• Later this week, a second Israeli delegation will head to Cairo for further talks.

Gaza Strip: The IDF continues to operate in the northern, central, and southern Gaza Strip against Hamas combatants and its terror infrastructure.

• In Khan Yunis the IDF announced Tuesday, “troops are continuing intensive operations in western Khan Yunis and killed dozens of terrorists over the past day.”
• The air force struck a “Hamas weapons storage facility in Khan Yunis. During the strike, secondary explosions were identified at the site, indicating that large quantities of weapons were stored at the site.”
• “In the central Gaza Strip, IDF troops are continuing to operate and have killed a number of terrorists over the past day.”
• In Gaza City in the north, IDF troops conducted a “targeted raid in the Zaytun area… During the activity, terrorists were killed, and numerous weapons were located.”
• On Tuesday night, the IDF revealed “large quantities of weapons inside a building adjacent to a UN school in Khan Yunis. The school had been used as a humanitarian shelter for Gazan residents. The weapons found by the IDF include AK-47s, warheads, grenades, RPGs and ammunition. The terrorists used a gap in the school wall as a passage to the adjacent building, from which they took their weapons to use in attacks on IDF soldiers.”
• “In parallel, the soldiers worked to evacuate the civilian population from the combat zone for their safety. Approximately 60 terrorists who were hiding among the civilian population and tried to take advantage of the evacuation process to escape, were detained by the IDF.”
• In the last two days two more IDF soldiers have been killed in action, taking the total to 237 since the ground operation begun.

Lebanon: Hezbollah has kept up its daily attacks across northern Israel, firing rockets, anti-tank missiles and launching drones.

• At least two Hezbollah drones have successfully penetrated Israeli air space. One landed in the garden of Mateh Asher Regional Council Head Moshe Davidovitch’s home. Another one fell near Tiberias on Monday. Neither incident resulted in casualties.
• Israel continues to strike Hezbollah target. Over the last few day,s Israel has carried out strikes in Nabatieh and Blida and has also begun to attack Hezbollah targets deeper into Lebanon, including in Sidon.
• Defence Minister Gallant visited troops in the north on Tuesday and told them, “Every day, the IDF is winning and Hezbollah is losing… Nasrallah’s method of equations has collapsed. The IDF operates in Damascus, in Beirut, in Nabatieh and every place necessary.”

Syria: Syrian media reported this morning that Israel fired a number of missiles at a high-rise apartment building in a Damascus neighbourhood, with reports suggesting two people were killed.

• According to a Syrian official, the target of the attack was an Iranian man who had been in the building.

West Bank: Israeli security forces arrested 40 wanted men across the West Bank Tuesday night.

• In a counterterrorism operation in Jenin, troops arrested a number of suspects and killed terrorists, including by air strikes.
• According to Palestinians sources, Araf Kadumi, the commander of Fatah’s al-Aqsa Martyrs Battalions in Qalqilya was killed. Kadumi also served in the past as part of the Palestinian Authorities Security Forces.
• Palestinians are claiming he is the 400^th casualty in the West Bank since the war began. The vast majority seem to be armed gunmen, or assailants attempting terror attacks.

Context: The IDF’s latest assessment is that around 12,000 of Hamas’s estimated 30,000 combatants have now been killed since the war begun, whilst Hamas has admitted for the first time that 6,000 of their fighters have been killed.

• In addition it’s likely that several more thousand more have been seriously wounded and no longer able to fight.
• The IDF also revealed that the air force have carried out over 31,000 strikes, including over 1,000 in Lebanon and dozens in the West Bank.
• Israel continues to hunt the senior Hamas leadership that has so far managed to evade capture. There is growing speculation over the location of Hamas leader Sinwar who is considered the mastermind of the October 7^th attacks and the highest priority target.
• According to a Saudi media report, Sinwar has escaped from the Gaza Strip into the Sinai and may have taken hostages with him.
• The report could be part of a campaign to delegitimise his leadership in the eyes of the Gazan population. However, Israeli sources say they have no intelligence to support the claim.
• For Israel, he is still most likely hiding in the tunnel network either under Khan Yunis or Rafah.
• Last week, Israel released captured CCTV footage from earlier in the war reportedly showing Sinwar and his family fleeing their home in a tunnel. The release of that footage was also meant to depict him as a coward in retreat.
• On Tuesday, a strategic assessment written by Minister Eisenkot to his partners in the war cabinet was revealed on Channel 12 News. According to the report, Eisnkot gave the following assessments:
  • Stripping Hamas of its military and governmental capabilities—partially achieved.
  • Freeing the hostages—partially achieved.
  • Securing an end to the war in which no threat is posed to Israel from Gaza—not achieved.
  • Restoring security to the residents of the Gaza periphery communities—partially achieved.
  • Improving Israeli citizens’ sense of personal security and national resilience— not achieved.
• Eisenkot included harsh criticism of the war cabinet writing, “In practice, for the past three months no impactful decisions have been made. The war is being run on the basis of tactical achievements, without meaningful efforts to secure the attainment of strategic objectives.”
• For the third time since the war began, the US vetoed a motion at the UN Security Council calling for an immediate ceasefire. The UK once again abstained.

Looking ahead: In parallel to the military campaign, there are efforts to renew talks over a deal to releases the hostages. Israeli negotiators could return to talks in Cairo in the days ahead.

• The IDF is still preparing plans to launch a ground operation into Rafah, but first needs to facilitate another humanitarian corridor for the non-combatants to be evacuated.

What’s happened: The International Court of Justice (ICJ) in the Hague yesterday began hearing the case on the “legal consequences” of Israel’s occupation of the West Bank and East Jerusalem.

• In opening remarks, Palestinian Authority (PA) Foreign Minister Riyad Maliki called on the court to “declare that the Israeli occupation is illegal” and accused Israel of presenting Palestinians with the choices of “ethnic cleansing, apartheid, or genocide”.
• The PA has lobbied the UN General Assembly to press for the court to hear the case, and seeks an advisory opinion declaring the occupation illegal and that Israel must end it, dismantle its settlements, and provide restitution to the Palestinians.
• Israel has opted not to present to the court, instead choosing to submit a written argument. It does not accept the ICJ’s jurisdiction over this particular issue, arguing that advisory opinions should not be issued when the essence of the matter is a political and not a legal dispute.
• The Israeli Ministry of Foreign Affairs said “By hurling false accusations and creating a fundamentally distorted reality, the Palestinian Authority is trying to turn a conflict that should be resolved through direct negotiations and without external impositions into a one-sided and improper legal process designed to adopt an extremist and distorted narrative according to which the Palestinians have no responsibilities and Israel has no rights, which has nothing to do with justice.”
• “The Court should refrain from participating in this media circus and determine that the Palestinians should return to the existing legal frameworks in order to resolve the conflict through direct negotiations between the parties.” 

Context: The court is hearing this case having already ruled last month that a separate case brought by South Africa accusing Israel of genocide in its war in Gaza should be heard in full. (For more on the background to that case see BICOM’s analysis.)

• In 2022, the United Nations General Assembly requested that the ICJ issue an advisory and non-binding opinion on “Legal Consequences arising from the Policies and Practices of Israel in the Occupied Palestinian Territory, including East Jerusalem”.
• The UNGA resolution calling for this ICJ case referred to numerous aspects of Israel’s control of the West Bank, East Jerusalem, and its policies towards the Gaza Strip. Palestinian freedom of movement, settler violence, and “the disastrous humanitarian situation” in the Gaza Strip were all specifically mentioned as areas of concern. It also calls for Israel to cease “the transfer of its own population into the Occupied Palestinian Territory, including East Jerusalem”, cease settlement activities, lift its blockade on Gaza.
• In 2004, the ICJ issued a similar advisory ruling on the West Bank Security Barrier. While its key findings were that it violated international law, should be dismantled, and that reparations should be made for damages it caused, Israel rejected the ICJ’s position.
• Established by the United Nations Charter in June 1945, the ICJ is the principle judicial organ of the United Nations. Located at the Peace Palace in the Hague, the Court is composed of 15 judges elected for a nine-year term by the UN General Assembly and Security Council.
• The Court has two roles: to settle legal disputes submitted to it by states; and to provide advisory opinions on legal questions referred to it by duly authorised United Nations organs and agencies of the system.
• In contrast to the International Criminal Court (ICC), which deals with criminal prosecution against individuals for war crimes or crimes against humanity, cases dealt with by the ICJ involve states. The ICJ can hear cases brought by any UN member state against any other member state, whether or not they are directly in conflict, when the common interest of the international community is at stake.
• The ICJ’s jurisdiction is based on the mutual consent of the states involved. In last month’s South African case against Israel, this applied as both states are members of the Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide.

Looking ahead: Between 19^th-26^th February 2024, 52 states and three international organisations will present evidence which is expected to overwhelmingly be against Israel. Oral arguments will last a week, and a judgement is expected several months from now.

• While procedurally separate from the South Africa V Israel case alleging genocide in the Gaza Strip, Israel’s conduct during its current war against Hamas is likely to heavily feature in this coming week’s oral arguments.
• While a judgement would be advisory only – so non-binding and without legal ramifications – one ruling against Israel could nevertheless pose significant reputational and diplomatic challenges for Israel.

What happened: 18 of Hamas’s 24 battalions have been defeated and the Khan Yunis Brigade is now no longer effectively operating.

• 200 terrorists have surrendered at the city’s Nasser Hospital, alongside dozens at Al Amal Hospital.
• The IDF says troops have detained hundreds of terror operatives — some of whom were dressed up as hospital staff — and other suspects who were holed up at the hospital, including many who participated in the October 7^th massacre.
• Troops also found links to the hostages held by the terror group as well as unopened boxes of medications bearing the names of hostages.
• Defence Minister Yoav Gallant described Hamas’ military capacity as remaining on the fringes of central Gazan camps and within Rafah, and vowed to disband Hamas’ remaining six battalions. “Nobody is coming to help them – not the Iranians, not international aid” he added.
• Gallant also said that Hamas is looking for a replacement for its Gazan leader Yahya Sinwar: “there is a bid for who will be the ruling actor… the external leadership is looking for internal leadership.”

Palestinian Statehood?: Israel’s cabinet pushed back against reported plans within the international community to unilaterally recognise a Palestinian state.

• A unanimously agreed statement read “a settlement, if it is to be reached, will come about solely through direct negotiations between the parties, without preconditions” and called unilateral recognition of a Palestinian state “a massive and unprecedented reward to terrorism and would foil any future peace settlement.”
• Minister Gantz later emphasised the importance of cooperation with the US, adding that victory in Gaza “goes hand in hand with our will to expand the circle of peace and form a united regional axis facing Iran. For that reason, the normalisation process with Saudi Arabia is an important endeavour we must pursue – and I am personally working toward it… It is through facilitating long-term processes that will consolidate a regional architecture facing the Iranian axis of terror, and by advancing international arrangements that will improve the lives of people throughout the region and promote stability and peace,” he says.
• Gantz also warned about “one-sided actions”. “After October 7, the pathway to regional stability and peace is not through one-sided actions like recognition of a Palestinian state.”

Context: Israel has historically rejected unilateral recognition, but this latest statement by this right-wing government leaves open the opportunity for a two-state solution.

• Israel was supported in this position by US Ambassador to Israel Lew, who said “We have never said there should be a unilateral recognition of a Palestinian state but rather an “over-the-horizon process that includes a vision for a demilitarised Palestinian state.”
• Despite accusations, the IDF is insisting that the Nasser hospital is able to continue its operations and that it has acted “without harming the patients and medical staff and in accordance with the values of the IDF and international law.
• As part of its vision for two states, the Biden Administration is making moves to support the ailing Palestinian Authority (PA) in the West Bank.
• The US has repeatedly indicated a preference for having the PA assume a central role in a post-Hamas Gaza, and is reacting to news that Mahmoud Abbas’s government is fast running out of money.
• A senior Palestinian official claimed that US reduction in aid and the suspension of Israeli tax revenues after the Hamas-led October 7 attack has put the PA ‘on the verge of financial collapse.’ Approximately 90,000 West Bank PA employees – including members of the security services and police – as well as 30,000 PA employees who live in Gaza have not received their salaries since November.
• The PA has also suffered from the loss of taxes from Palestinian labourers who since October 7 are no longer entering Israel and West Bank settlements. These labourers used to earn a relatively high salary and bring in over 1bn USD into PA territory annually, an amount constituting slightly more than a quarter of the West Bank’s GDP.
• To support the PA, the Biden administration would need to circumvent a US law that prevents it from contributing directly to the PA, due to Ramallah’s pay-for-slay policy which provides stipends for terrorists and their families.
• Yesterday the Norwegian government announced it had agreed to assist in the transfer of frozen tax funds earmarked for the PA that were collected by Israel.

Looking ahead: Contrary to prior statements made by Israeli officials, a ground operation in Rafah is not thought to be imminent.

• Before undertaking an operation in Rafah, the IDF will need to move the civilian population. Khan Yunis and other places are options.
• Israel is hoping that continued military advancements will create pressure to renew hostage negotiations on more favourable terms. There is hope that any ground operation could be completed before Ramadan, but that remains an optimistic time frame.
• The IDF will also likely operate against two Hamas battalions in the refugee camps in the central Gaza Strip before turning its attention to Rafah.
• Gantz also warned that Israel would carry out a ground operation in Rafah unless the hostages were freed before Ramadan, on 10 March.

The north: One Israeli was killed and at least seven wounded in the northern city of Safed following a rocket barrage fired from Lebanon this morning.

• Reports claim at least eight rockets were fired at the city, with the IDF confirming that the launches on Safed targeted the Northern Command headquarters.
• Rocket sirens sounded in the Galilee for the third time in under 15 minutes this morning in what appeared to be one of the heaviest barrages on northern Israel since fighting began.
• The Israeli military said Tuesday night that the Air Force had attacked two Hezbollah military installations in southern Lebanon.
• According to the statement, one of the positions had been used to fire missiles at Israel. The army also said that it identified two rocket launches from Lebanese territory earlier Tuesday and that the missiles fell in unpopulated areas.

Hostage deal talks: An Israeli delegation was in Cairo yesterday to discuss a possible ceasefire and hostage release deal with Hamas.

• Talks were attended by Mossad Director Barnea, Shin Bet Director Bar, the prime minister’s political adviser Falk, CIA Director Burns, Qatari Prime Minister Al Thani and Director of the Egyptian General Intelligence Kamel.
• A senior Egyptian source said that the atmosphere at the summit had been positive. Yet while some progress was reported in the talks, no “breakthrough” is said to have been achieved.
• A source in Cairo that Israel and Hamas remain deeply divided over several issues.
• The meeting reportedly focused on formulating a “final draft” of an agreement that would include a six-week ceasefire with a promise that during this time the sides would continue to hold negotiations on a permanent ceasefire.
• The most problematic issue was the number of terrorists who would be released in exchange for each hostage.
• A high-ranking source in Cairo said that Egypt had prepared a draft for a hostage deal but Israel did not agree to the list of Palestinian prisoners who would be released in exchange for the hostages, in keeping with the ratio of three prisoners per hostage.
• A few hours after the Israeli delegation left the Cairo conference, a Hamas delegation arrived, including Hamas representative Khalil al-Hayya.
• Hamas Political Bureau Head Haniyeh met with Iranian Foreign Minister Amir-Abdollahian in Doha yesterday. Haniyeh said that any agreement between Hamas and Israel must include a cease-fire and Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, in addition to a prisoner and hostage exchange deal.

Gaza Strip: IDF Chief of Staff Halevi said yesterday “In the northern Gaza Strip, we are returning to every place where there is terrorism, we kill more enemies and destroy more terrorist infrastructure. In the southern Gaza Strip, in Khan Yunis, we are reaching places that the enemy never imagined that we would reach. We have so far killed more than 10,000 terrorists, among them many commanders. This is what it means to dismantle Hamas.”

• Five Israeli soldiers have been killed this week – a reserve battalion commander, an officer and a soldier, as well as two soldiers from the elite Maglan Unit. The reservists were killed in an explosion in a booby-trapped house; the Maglan troops were hit by anti-tank missiles. Every day Hamas is losing dozens of fighters in battles.
• The IDF has released footage purporting to show Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar in a tunnel in the aftermath of October 7th. For more details, see Israeli Media Summary below.

Context: This morning’s rockets come after a 15-year-old boy was seriously wounded and his mother moderately wounded by rockets fired from Lebanon towards Kiryat Shmona in northern Israel yesterday.

• Yesterday, France submitted a proposal to Lebanon to secure a ceasefire and resolve Lebanon’s border disputes with Israel. The proposal would see Hezbollah withdraw roughly ten kilometres from the Israeli border (less than it is commanded to do by UN Resolution 1701), and to dismantle its military infrastructure within that zone. Some 15,000 Lebanese army troops would be deployed in the area to ensure future compliance with the buffer zone. In response, Hezbollah said it would not comment until a ceasefire had been effected in Gaza.
• The Qatari newspaper Al-Araby Al-Jadeed citied an Egyptian source saying that the Israeli delegation arrived in Cairo with a decision to invade Rafah if no agreement with Hamas were to be reached. The source said that the main point of contention was about a permanent ceasefire.
• The Israeli delegation left for Cairo after extensive deliberation on whether to attend, after Hamas had previously presented demands that Netanyahu described as delusional.
• Kan News reported that Prime Minister Netanyahu rejected a new plan for a hostage deal drafted by Mossad Director Barnea, Shin Bet Director Bar and Maj. Gen. (res.) Alon. Netanyahu decided that the three of them would go to Cairo mainly in order to listen. As a result, Maj. Gen. Alon decided to remain in Israel.
• For the first time, Netanyahu’s adviser was sent to the talks, most likely because of other subjects that would be raised in the talks, such as Rafah and the Philadelphi Corridor.
• The IDF has yet to destroy dozens of kilometres of tunnels in the Khan Yunis area, but the so-called strategic compounds, local headquarters and underground residences have apparently been largely mapped, and the army is preparing for their systematic destruction.

Looking ahead: Talks in Cairo are expected to continue in the days ahead, involving lower-level officials who will continue discussing a new framework for a potential hostage deal.

• It appears that Khan Yunis will remain the centre of operations for another few weeks. At the same time, Israel is preparing for an assault on Rafah and has been issuing threats and declarations to that effect. The US is not trying to impose a veto on an operation, but wants to ensure Israel upholds its promise that the majority of the civilian population will be safely evacuated in advance.
• The talk about a seemingly imminent offensive is designed mainly to put pressure on Arab countries in hopes that they can convince Hamas to start looking for a way to end the war.

* This is a trial of a new BICOM News in Brief format. We welcome feedback to: [email protected].

1. Two people were injured by rocket fire from Lebanon this morning. Several rockets were fired into the Upper Galilee, including at Kiryat Shmona, where a 15-year-old boy was seriously wounded. His 47-year-old mother is injured in moderate to serious condition. As usual, the IDF returned fire to the sources of fire. Since October 7th, Hezbollah has launched over 2,000 attempted attacks on Israel. 15 Israelis have been killed and around 80,000 who live closest to the border have been internally displaced. A similar number of Lebanese have been displaced, while Hezbollah has lost 193 combatants since the war began.

2. France has submitted a fresh proposal to Lebanon to secure a ceasefire and resolve Lebanon’s border disputes with Israel. The proposal would see Hezbollah withdraw roughly ten kilometres from the Israeli border (less than it is commanded to do by UN Resolution 1701), and to dismantle its military infrastructure within that zone. Some 15,000 Lebanese army troops would be deployed in the area to ensure future compliance with the buffer zone. In response, Hezbollah said it would not comment until a ceasefire had been effected in Gaza.

3. Fighting continues in Khan Yunis. According to the IDF, “troops killed over 30 terrorists and strengthened operational control of the area with targeted raids on terrorist infrastructure, sniper ambushes and patrols.” In another incident, troops identified a number of Hamas operatives transferring explosive devices on a motorcycle, that were subsequently targeted by an aircraft.  In central Gaza, IDF troops killed approximately ten fighters over the past day. Overall the IDF says it has killed over 10,000 combatants in Gaza, in addition to around 1,000 terrorists inside Israel on October 7th.

4. Three IDF reservists were killed in action on Monday fighting in the southern Gaza Strip. The soldiers were killed by an explosive device that had been planted inside a booby-trapped building. Several other soldiers were wounded in the incident as well, two of whom are hospitalised in serious condition. Since the IDF launched their ground offensive 232 IDF soldiers have been killed. According to the Hamas controlled health ministry in Gaza, over 27,000 Palestinians have been killed. However these figures do not distinguish between civilians and combatants and cannot be independently verified.

5. Diplomatic efforts continue to release the hostages. 134 hostages remain in captivity, now for 130 days. A delegation led by Mossad Director David Barnea will visit Cairo today in an attempt to advance negotiations over a hostage deal. They are expected to meet with the director of the American CIA, the Qatari prime minister and the director of Egyptian intelligence. For more details on the parameters of the talk click here.

6. Israeli forces are preparing to expand their offensive into Rafah. The move is deemed necessary in order to destroy and dismantle the remaining four (out of 24) Hamas brigades, to block the smuggling routes from Egypt, and to continue to hunt down the Hamas leadership. Palestinian sources have reported on civilian convoys beginning to leave Rafah heading north. For more details, see yesterday’s BICOM Morning Brief.

7. Earlier this morning rocket sirens were heard in the community of Netiv Ha’asara on the Gaza border. Over 11,000 rockets have been fired out of Gaza since October, with an estimated 10-20 percent falling short and landing inside Gaza  .

8. Israel faces further international pressure to end its operations in Gaza. China today called for Israel to “stop its military operation as soon as possible, make every effort to avoid innocent civilian casualties… to prevent a more serious humanitarian disaster in the Rafah area.” EU foreign affairs chief Josep Borrell, meanwhile, called for Israel’s allies to reduce arms supplies to Israel. “If you believe that too many people are being killed, maybe you should provide less arms in order to prevent so many people being killed,” he told a Brussels press conference.

9. Yesterday morning’s successful mission to rescue two Israeli hostages in Gaza is being hailed as an extraordinary tactical achievement. “The A+ grade fails to describe the level of precision and polished performance by all the forces involved,” says Yediot Ahronot’s Yossi Yehoshua. Hamas, meanwhile, tried to minimise the achievement by saying that the hostages were held by civilians and that a successful rescue could never have been accomplished had they been held by Hamas fighters.

10. The Israeli Foreign Ministry will be holding consultations following the US and the UK announcement to impose sanctions against four West Bank settlers. According to a statement by the British embassy in Israel, the sanctions include economic and travel restrictions, and are designed to fight the ongoing violence by settlers that threatens stability in the West Bank. Prime Minister Netanyahu related to the issue in his meeting last week with US Secretary of State Blinken. He said in a statement that the “order is very grave. If they were to use that order equally, they would have to use it against thousands of Palestinians.”

11. This morning, a terrorist attempted a car ramming attack on civilians at the Gush Etzion Junction. Israeli troops fired on and pursued the assailant, who was apprehended and taken for questioning. A knife was found in the vehicle. No injuries were reported. On Sunday there was an attempted stabbing attack in the same area. For more West Bank analysis click here.

12. The Houthis yesterday fired two missiles at a vessel in the Red Sea. The Greek-owned, Iran-bound vessel sustained minor damage and no injuries to the crew, said US CENTCOM. This incident marks the first time the Houthis have targeted a vessel headed for Iran, with some analysts briefing that it could be a show of independence from their Iranian patron from the group. Overall there have been over 70 maritime attacks from Yemen since October 7th.

** If you are a journalist and would like more details, please contact Richard Pater on [email protected].