BICOM

ISIS will re-emerge as a deadly insurgent force in Syria and Iraq; Iran will supply Hezbollah with precision guidance systems for its missiles; and the US plan for Israeli-Palestinian talks may never be published. These are some of the predictions for the New Year according to BICOM’s fourth annual forecast ‘The Middle East in 2019.’

The BICOM forecast is produced after extensive consultations with experts in the UK, US and Israel. The full predictions include:

The Idlib demilitarised zone faces a high risk of collapse into conflict. Idlib’s population of 3.5m is 10 times that of east Aleppo. An assault on Idlib could send more than 250,000 Syrians refugees over the Turkish border. Use of chemical weapons by the regime will likely result in airstrikes by the US, France and the UK.

Iran won’t leave the JCPOA nuclear deal or negotiate with the US, instead it will try and wait out the Trump administration. Iran’s economy will weaken under US sanctions; investment and oil sales will plummet and European investment will diminish.

Israeli elections will take place in May or June. Current polls put Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party ahead but a decision by the Attorney-General to indict Netanyahu for bribery could impair his ability to form a coalition and transform Israeli politics. The US plan for Israeli-Palestinian talks won’t be published until after the election and could be delayed indefinitely.

Last year, BICOM correctly predicted the Turkish invasion of northern Syria, the US withdrawal from the JCPOA and the direct military confrontation between Iran and Israel in Syria.

BICOM CEO James Sorene said: “ISIS has maintained its ability to carry out attacks in Iraq. It lost nearly all its territory, but its fighters remain, as does its potential to inspire terrorist attacks in Britain and Europe.

“Iran lost the battle with Israel in Syria. In 2019 it will step up efforts to equip Hezbollah with precision guidance systems for its missiles in Lebanon and this could lead to a new war between Israel and Hezbollah. The dilemma whether to launch a pre-emptive strike against Hezbollah’s upgraded missiles, or wait and face a far more dangerous adversary, is the most serious national security decision for Israeli leaders in 2019.

“Hamas has increased its operations in the West Bank and 2019 will see more violence and instability that will be exacerbated if Mahmoud Abbas were to depart the scene.”