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Top Israeli think tank warns of ‘Northern War’
The Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), one of Israel’s leading think tanks, has warned of a simultaneous Northern War involving Hezbollah, Iran and Hamas.
The Institute presented its 2019 Strategic Assessment to President Reuven Rivlin yesterday. Former head of military intelligence, Major-General Amos Yadlin who leads the Institute said: “the gravest threat we face is not the third Lebanon war, but the first northern war – simultaneous conflict with Hezbollah in Lebanon, Syria and Iran, which Hamas in the south is likely to join.”
The report notes the current volatility in Syria, Lebanon and Gaza. According to the report: “In all three, despite the existence of mutual deterrence between the sides, there is a potential for escalation toward a broad confrontation and a general war, more than one front at a time.”
The report states: “there is an inverse relationship between the severity of threats and the degree.” Threats to Israel are listed in the following order, from most severe to least: the Iranian nuclear program, Hezbollah, Iran’s activities in the northern arena, and Hamas in the Gaza Strip. But it is the situation in Gaza that is most likely to deteriorate in the immediate future.
The report expresses concern about Hezbollah’s project to convert inaccurate missiles into precision missiles. On Syria it emphasises the need to avoid a clash with Russian forces. On Iran, the report recommends that Israel work closely with the US regarding intelligence sharing and deterrence efforts.
President Rivlin described the document as clear-sighted and said it: “Does not balk at leveling criticism at our decisions, deeds and deficiencies. At the same time, it is clear that the assessment does not point to genuine concerns for the future and security of Israel. Because of that, the Strategic Assessment is a shining light of patriotism and civil courage of the first order.”
On the 15th of January, BICOM published a briefing by Amos Yadlin regarding the different regional threats facing Israel as well as the ongoing challenge of the Russian presence in the Middle East. You can read the full briefing here.