BICOM

What happened: The United States lifted sanctions imposed on Turkey on 14 October yesterday, with President Donald Trump taking credit for the Turkey-Russia agreement on northeast Syria. Trump called the Turkey-Russia deal “a major breakthrough toward achieving a better future for Syria and the Middle East.”

• Reuters reported that Russian military police started to deploy on Syria’s northeast border
• Trump said that a small number of US troops will remain in Syria, east of the Euphrates, where major oil fields are located.
• James Jeffrey, the US administration’s Special Envoy to Syria, told two congressional hearings that he believed “over 100” ISIS fighters had escaped from prison since the beginning of Turkey’s offensive.
• Defence Secretary Mark Esper told CNN on Tuesday that Turkey may be liable for war crimes during its operation in Syria.

Context: President Trump imposed the sanctions following a serious domestic backlash to his acquiescence to the Turkish invasion of northeast Syria. Sanctions had been placed on the Turkish ministries of defence and energy, and on three senior officials. Trump had also threatened sanctions on Turkey’s steel industry.

• On Tuesday Russia and Turkey signed a deal to create a ‘safe’ zone in northeast Syria along the border with Turkey which would be cleared of Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) militants, whom the Turkish government view as terrorists threatening the Turkish state.

Looking ahead: With the ‘safe’ zone being implemented it appears that the Turkish military operation has come to an end, although the fall out may continue for some time.

• The Syrian regime has extended its control to northeast Syria and it is likely that the Assad regime will now mount a significant military operation against Idlib.
• While Trump has lifted sanctions at the executive level, if concrete evidence of Turkish war crimes does materialise, Congress may vote to impose sanctions.
• US lawmakers are already furious that Trump has not imposed legally required sanctions on Turkey for its purchase of the Russian made S-400 missile defence system
• If ISIS fighters have escaped from detention in large numbers then it is likely that ISIS will regroup in key areas and could intensify attacks in Syria.