BICOM

What happened: The UN Security Council (UNSC) has extended the UN’s Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) mandate in southern Lebanon for another year.

• The UNSC approved the decision with the support of 13 out of 15 members, with Russia and China abstaining.
• In a marked achievement for Israel, UNIFIL forces received backing to operate independently and do not need to coordinate their activity with the Lebanese army.
• In addition, the Lebanese government was mandated to facilitate UNIFIL’s access to any site they wish to visit. This includes “announced and unannounced patrols.”
• In parallel to the UN decision, on Friday Iran’s foreign minister met with Hezbollah leader Nasrallah in Lebanon, as well as senior officials from Palestinian Islamic Jihad and Hamas.

Context: UNIFIL was first established in 1978, but further expanded in UN Resolution 1701 following the Second Lebanon War in 2006, which forbade Hezbollah from maintaining any presence south of the Litani River.

• Ahead of the vote Israeli diplomats worked intensively, highlighting the importance of UNIFIL’s peacekeeping role, in particular their independent freedom of movement.
• As part of the effort, Israel’s Defence Minister Gallant visited New York last week and told the UN Secretary-General that “the potential for escalation on the northern border has risen in the wake of serious violations of sovereignty by Lebanon. Iran is pushing Hezbollah to act.”
• Gallant presented intel including maps and photographs highlighting Hezbollah’s recently established lookouts and increased presence on the border and attempts to create friction with IDF forces.
• Gallant also spoke about how Iran has increased funding and training for both Hezbollah and Palestinian terror groups.
• The latest Israeli assessment is that Hezbollah now has more than 150,000 missiles and rockets, as well as unmanned aerial vehicles, including assault drones, and special forces that can launch raids on land and at sea.
• To circumvent UNIFIL and 1701, Hezbollah operates under the guise of an NGO, ‘Green Without Borders’, which has established over 30 outposts along the Israeli border.
• Over the summer, there have been several provocative incidents by Hezbollah on the border. In one case two men were filmed climbing the security barrier and stealing an IDF surveillance camera. In a separate incident several men with face masks and dressed in military camouflage fatigues walked along the border with Israel.
• In July, IDF soldiers fired warning shots and crowd dispersal measures to disperse at least 20 Lebanese citizens who crossed about 80 metres into Israeli territory in the Mount Dov region. This was after Hezbollah placed two tents south of the Blue Line (inside Israel) in the area. One of the tents has been dismantled, while one tent remains.
• Last December, an Irish UNIFIL peacekeeper was killed and several others wounded after their convoy was shot at whilst driving through the town of Al-Aqbiya in southern Lebanon. Hezbollah was blamed, but denied involvement.

Looking ahead: Despite the positive endorsement of the UNSC, Israel will be keenly watching to see how the renewed mandate will be implemented on the ground.

• The overall assessment remains that Hezbollah is not looking for a wider conflict but is keen to test Israel’s resolve. Hezbollah’s aggressive posture remains primarily as an Iranian insurance policy in case the Iranian regime or their nuclear project is targeted.
• However, concern remains that a localised incident or a miscalculation could quickly lead to a wider confrontation.
• In the event of an escalation, the Hezbollah outposts on the border could become overt military positions from which Hezbollah could launch attacks inside Israel.