Analysis
The Changing Terrain: An Interim Assessment of the Arab Spring and its Policy Implications, Brig. Gen. (ret.) Michael Herzog
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Nearly two years on from the onset of the Arab Spring, four Arab leaders have been toppled – in Tunisia, Egypt, Yemen and Libya – a bloody civil war is raging in Syria with no end in sight, and the status quo in other Arab states is fragile. Where does all this lead to? This paper assesses the evolving challenges emerging from the Middle East as a result of the ‘Arab Spring’, and the policy implications for the US, UK and other Western powers, as well as for Israel.
It argues that whilst the events of the Arab Spring have demonstrated the limits of Western influence, Britain, alongside the US and other Western powers, still has military, economic and political leverage, which if used correctly could tilt the balance in the crises with Iran and Syria, direct Islamist governments away from undermining Western interests and help strengthen Western allies.