BICOM

Key Points

• In the last few days there has been a spike in fire across Israel’s southern border with the Gaza Strip, and more unusually, its northern border with Syria.
• These developments are separate and not directly related, however they are both to some extent expressions of the new strategic challenges facing Israel as a result of the ‘Arab Spring’.
• Israeli decision makers face difficult decisions in determining how to restore deterrence on its borders without creating an unwanted escalation with uncertain consequences.

What has been happening on the Israel-Gaza border?

• The last year has seen a pattern of periodic escalations of rocket and mortar fire from Palestinian armed groups in the Gaza Strip, lasting several days, followed by longer of periods of relative calm. In recent month the escalations have become more frequent.
• The latest escalation began on Saturday, and was triggered by the firing of an advanced anti-tank missile at an Israeli jeep patrolling the border, injuring four soldiers, two of them seriously. The Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP) claimed responsibility. Israel retaliated with tanks shelling the source of the fire. This in turn sparked a volley of over 100 rockets and mortars fired from Gaza at Israeli towns and cities between 10 and 12 November, for which a number of armed groups claimed joint responsibility, including Hamas which controls the Gaza Strip. Israeli casualties remain relatively low, in part thanks to early warning sirens and the Iron Dome anti-missile system, but the lives of Israelis living within range have been seriously affected.
• Israel has so far responded with airstrikes on weapons storage sites and rocket firing crews, but if the rocket fire continues, it will be forced to consider more extensive responses to restore deterrence. Israel is reluctant to launch a major military operation on the scale of Operation Cast Lead at the end of 2008. Not only does it have to consider the potential diplomatic cost in terms of international opinion, but in the context of the Arab Spring, it needs to consider the impact in the Arab world, and particularly on the extremely fragile relationship with Egypt.
• Other Israeli responses that have been used in the past include targeted strikes against Hamas leaders or regime facilities in the Gaza Strip, or restrictions on goods entering the Gaza Strip.
• Most analysts assume that Hamas itself prefers to re-establish calm and avoid a major escalation, and that it is being dragged into these exchanges by smaller factions, which it is struggling to control. Egypt is also not interested in an escalation, and has been involved in attempting to broker a ceasefire.
• Key stats for November 10-13:
  • Rockets and mortars fired at Israel: 112 (causing 8 injuries)
  • Israeli airstrikes into Gaza: 14 (causing 7 deaths and 26 injuries according to Palestinian reports)
  • Iron Dome rocket interceptions: 6

What has been happening on Israel-Syria border?

• Over the last few days there have been several incidents in which small arms and mortar fire, apparently from Syrian regime forces, has fallen inside Israel. On Sunday Israel responded to mortar fire with a warning shot and on Monday Israel responded to mortar fire by targeting the source of the Syrian fire with tank rounds, apparently hitting Syrian forces. This is the first time there has been such an exchange across the Israel-Syrian border since the end of the Yom Kippur war in 1973.
• The general assumption in Israel is that the Syrian fire fell in Israel accidentally, and Israel has no interest in causing an escalation. However, Israel has decided to send a clear warning to all sides in the Syrian civil conflict that it will return fire against anyone firing into Israel.
• Whether or not the Syrian fire was deliberate, there is a broader concern that armed groups currently acting against the Syrian regime close to Israel’s borders, some of which are motivated by Jihadi ideology, may be tempted to turn their fire on Israel.

Further resources                                                               

• For updates subscribe to BICOM’s daily brief at www.bicom.org.uk or follow on twitter @britainisrael.
• Click here to read our new publication: The Changing Terrain: An Interim Assessment of the Arab Spring and its Policy Implications – November 2012.